Archive for April, 2017

FFN.PR.A To Get Bigger

Wednesday, April 5th, 2017

Quadravest has announced:

North American Financial 15 Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus in each of the provinces of Canada with respect to an offering of Preferred Shares and Class A Shares of the Company. The offering will be co-led by National Bank Financial Inc., CIBC, Scotia Capital Inc., RBC Capital Markets and will also include BMO Capital Markets, GMP Securities L.P., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Raymond James, Desjardins Securities Inc., Echelon Wealth Partners, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Mackie Research Capital Corporation and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The Preferred Shares will be offered at a price of $10.00 per Preferred Share to yield 5.25% and the Class A Shares will be offered at a price of $9.10 per Class A Share to yield 13.19%.

The closing price on the TSX of each of the Preferred Shares and the Class A Shares on April 4, 2017 was $10.19 and
$9.25, respectively.

Since inception of the Company, the aggregate dividends paid on the Preferred Shares have been $6.50 per share and the aggregate dividends paid on the Class A Shares have been $10.45 per share, for a combined total of $16.95. All distributions to date have been made in tax advantage eligible Canadian dividends or capital gains dividends.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used by the Company to invest in an actively managed, high quality portfolio consisting of 15 financial services companies made up of Canadian and U.S. issuers as follows:

Bank of Montreal National Bank of Canada Bank of America Corp.
The Bank of Nova Scotia Manulife Financial Corporation Citigroup Inc.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Sun Life Financial Services of Canada Inc. Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Royal Bank of Canada Great-West Lifeco Inc. JP Morgan Chase & Co.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank CI Financial Corp. Wells Fargo & Co.

The Company’s investment objectives are:
Preferred Shares:
i. to provide holders of the Preferred Shares with fixed, cumulative preferential monthly cash dividends currently in the amount of 5.25% annually, to be set by the Board of Directors annually subject to a minimum of 5.25% until 2019; and
ii. on or about the termination date, currently December 1, 2019 (subject to further 5 year extensions thereafter), to pay the holders of the Preferred Shares $10.00 per Preferred Share.

Class A Shares:
i. to provide holders of the Class A Shares with regular monthly cash dividends in an amount to be determined by the Board of the Directors; and
ii. to permit holders to participate in all growth in the net asset value of the Company above $10 per Unit, by paying holders on or about the termination date of December 1, 2019 (subject to further 5 year extensions thereafter) such amounts as remain in the Company after paying $10 per Preferred Share.

The sales period of this overnight offering will end at 9:00 a.m. EST on April 6, 2017.

So the offering price is $19.10 per whole unit and the whole units have a NAVPU of 17.67 as of 2017-03-31. It’s nice work if you can get it!

Update, 2017-04-07: The offering was quite successful!

North American Financial 15 Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has completed the overnight marketing of up to 2,833,000 Preferred Shares and up to 2,833,000 Class A Shares of the Company. The total proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $54.1 million.

The offering is being co-led by National Bank Financial Inc., CIBC, Scotia Capital Inc., RBC Capital Markets and will also include BMO Capital Markets, GMP Securities L.P., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Raymond James, Desjardins Securities Inc., Echelon Wealth Partners, Industrial Alliance Securities Inc., Mackie Research Capital Corporation and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The sales period of the overnight offering has now ended.

BMO.PR.L To Be Redeemed

Wednesday, April 5th, 2017

Bank of Montreal has announced (apparently on April 3, but there was nothing on their website until April 5):

its intention to redeem all of its $250,000,000 Non-Cumulative Perpetual Class B Preferred Shares, Series 15 (“Preferred Shares Series 15”) on May 25, 2017.

The Preferred Shares Series 15 are redeemable at Bank of Montreal’s option on or after May 25, 2017, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share. Payment of the redemption price will be made by Bank of Montreal on or after May 25, 2017, upon surrender of the Preferred Shares Series 15.

Separately from the payment of the redemption price, the final quarterly dividend of $0.3625 per share for the Preferred Shares Series 15 will be paid in the usual manner on May 25, 2017, to shareholders of record on May 1, 2017.

Notice will be delivered to holders of the Preferred Shares Series 15 in accordance with the terms outlined in the Preferred Shares Series 15 prospectus supplement.

BMO.PR.L is a 5.80% Straight Perpetual that commenced trading 2008-4-2 after being announced 2008-3-25. It has been tracked by HIMIPref™ and as it is NVCC non-compliant, it is included in the DeemedRetractible sub-index.

April 4, 2017

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7122 % 2,105.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7122 % 3,864.0
Floater 3.61 % 3.75 % 43,081 17.99 4 0.7122 % 2,226.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0065 % 3,022.3
SplitShare 4.94 % 4.07 % 61,537 0.67 6 0.0065 % 3,609.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0065 % 2,816.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.29 % -1.61 % 72,466 0.09 23 0.0526 % 2,772.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.13 % 5.10 % 116,102 15.26 13 0.4953 % 2,963.9
FixedReset 4.36 % 3.96 % 240,220 6.67 94 0.2221 % 2,364.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 0.66 % 143,812 0.14 31 0.2663 % 2,873.5
FloatingReset 2.57 % 3.22 % 52,332 4.53 9 0.0893 % 2,523.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 8.89 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 16.14
Evaluated at bid price : 16.14
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 22.34
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 12.65
Evaluated at bid price : 12.65
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 22.74
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.T FloatingReset 115,376 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.11
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
BMO.PR.B FixedReset 97,541 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.55
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
BIP.PR.D FixedReset 82,219 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BNS.PR.H FixedReset 67,173 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.18
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 66,543 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 22.23
Evaluated at bid price : 22.53
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 60,035 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.35
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
There were 54 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.62 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2447

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.62
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %

BAM.PF.H FixedReset Quote: 26.55 – 26.85
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1949

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.55
Bid-YTW : 3.26 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 16.46 – 16.80
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2466

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 16.46
Evaluated at bid price : 16.46
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 19.63 – 19.84
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1241

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 19.63
Evaluated at bid price : 19.63
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 16.81 – 17.09
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1946

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-04
Maturity Price : 16.81
Evaluated at bid price : 16.81
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %

RY.PR.I FixedReset Quote: 24.62 – 24.81
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1175

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.62
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %

BMO.PR.K To Be Redeemed

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017

Bank of Montreal has announced (apparently on April 3, but there is still nothing on their website):

its intention to redeem all of its $250,000,000 Non-Cumulative Perpetual Class B Preferred Shares, Series 14 (“Preferred Shares Series 14”) on May 25, 2017.

The Preferred Shares Series 14 are redeemable at Bank of Montreal’s option on or after November 25, 2016, at a redemption price of $25.00 per share. Payment of the redemption price will be made by Bank of Montreal on or after May 25, 2017, upon surrender of the Preferred Shares Series 14.

Separately from the payment of the redemption price, the final quarterly dividend of $0.328125 per share for the Preferred Shares Series 14 will be paid in the usual manner on May 25, 2017, to shareholders of record on May 1, 2017.

Notice will be delivered to holders of the Preferred Shares Series 14 in accordance with the terms outlined in the Preferred Shares Series 14 prospectus supplement.

(added 2017-4-5): BMO has finally published the press release on their website

BMO.PR.K is a 5.25% Straight Perpetual that commenced trading 2007-10-9 after being announced 2009-9-27. It has been tracked by HIMIPref™ and as it is NVCC non-compliant, it is included in the DeemedRetractible sub-index.

Note: This post has been corrected from an earlier version, which referred to BMO.PR.L. Both issues are being redeemed, but due to an error I only announced one, with the quoted press release not matching the headline. The actual BMO.PR.L redemption has been reported.

FFH.PR.K : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Tuesday, April 4th, 2017

Fairfax could not be bothered to issue a press release to let its financers know what’s going on, but today I contacted their investor relations department and spoke to a man whose ghastly job is to speak to people like me.

Insufficient shares were tendered to allow the conversion to proceed, but the precise number tendered is some kind of Top Secret corporate intelligence. If the Russians were to be found out – or the Chinese! – the pillars of western capitalism would be imperilled.

Assiduous Readers will remember that I recommended against conversion after the reset to 4.671% for FFH.PR.K.

So FFH.PR.K is now a FixedReset, 4.671%+351. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps sub-index on credit concerns.

April 3, 2017

Monday, April 3rd, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8542 % 2,090.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.8542 % 3,836.7
Floater 3.64 % 3.80 % 42,891 17.89 4 0.8542 % 2,211.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0131 % 3,022.1
SplitShare 4.94 % 3.84 % 61,766 0.67 6 0.0131 % 3,609.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0131 % 2,815.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.29 % -4.61 % 71,807 0.09 23 0.2465 % 2,770.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.15 % 5.13 % 113,489 15.21 13 0.1215 % 2,949.3
FixedReset 4.37 % 3.98 % 239,430 6.67 94 0.1509 % 2,359.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.03 % 1.31 % 141,907 0.14 31 0.2087 % 2,865.9
FloatingReset 2.58 % 3.24 % 54,154 4.54 9 0.3798 % 2,521.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.13
Bid-YTW : 6.88 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : 2.99 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Premium 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 2.87 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 22.35
Evaluated at bid price : 22.64
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 21.54
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.55
Bid-YTW : 8.79 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 16.78
Evaluated at bid price : 16.78
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 12.50
Evaluated at bid price : 12.50
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 173,265 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 70,077 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.18
Bid-YTW : 1.31 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 57,140 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.62
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %
RY.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 50,462 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : -0.51 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 38,694 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.72
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset 38,046 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 23.37
Evaluated at bid price : 23.80
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
There were 25 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
W.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 26.05 – 26.48
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2789

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.05
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 14.50 – 14.91
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3493

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-04-03
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %

BMO.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 24.65 – 24.89
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1843

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %

GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.80 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1444

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-05-03
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : -8.17 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 19.89 – 20.13
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1866

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.89
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %

BMO.PR.R FloatingReset Quote: 23.96 – 24.10
Spot Rate : 0.1400
Average : 0.0977

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.96
Bid-YTW : 3.16 %

TA Downgraded to Pfd-3(low) by DBRS

Monday, April 3rd, 2017

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the Issuer Rating and Unsecured Debt/Medium-Term Notes rating of TransAlta Corporation (TAC) to BBB (low) from BBB. DBRS also downgraded TAC’s Preferred Shares rating to Pfd-3 (low) from Pfd-3. The trends for all the above-mentioned ratings were changed to Stable from Negative, where they were placed on March 10, 2016.

DBRS’s rating actions follow a review of TAC’s 2016 financial results and refinancing plan for corporate debt over the medium term, the Off-Coal Agreement (OCA) with the government of Alberta and the potential structure of the Alberta whole-sale power market post-2020. The rating downgrades reflect the fact that the business risk profile of TAC will weaken following the expiry of the Alberta power purchase arrangements (PPAs). Currently, stable cash flow from coal facilities in Alberta (majority under Alberta PPAs) account for approximately 35% of total EBITDA. Post-2020, some coal plants will retire and the remaining coal plants (to be converted into gas-fired generation) and hydro plants will be subject to the whole-sale market capacity auction structure, which remains uncertain at this time. There is also uncertainty with respect to the plan to convert most coal plants to gas-fired generation. DBRS will evaluate additional information regarding the market structure and coal-to-gas conversions as it becomes available and will assess the credit quality of TAC on an ongoing basis.

The trends were changed to Stable, reflecting the following: (1) Under the OCA, TAC will receive $37.4 million per year from 2017 to 2030, which will increase cash flow to TAC. However, TAC intends to monetize the OCA payments in the next 12 to 18 months. The amount from the OCA monetization is expected to be used to partially refinance the debt maturing in 2018 (approximately $959 million). DBRS notes that as part of its refinancing plan, TAC intends to raise funds at the project level. The funds from these issues will be used to finance the remaining South Hedland project capital expenditures (capex) and for upcoming maturities at Canadian Hydro Developers, Inc. (rated BBB with a Stable trend by DBRS; indirectly majority owned by TAC through TransAlta Renewables Inc.). Although TAC’s strategy of issuing debt at the project level helps to support deconsolidated metrics, it also increases the structural subordination of the debt issued by TAC. (2) The South Hedland project in Australia is on time and on budget and is expected to be commissioned by mid-2017. This project will contribute approximately $80 million in EBITDA per year. The financing of the remaining work at the project is manageable; as at the end of 2016, TAC has funded approximately $336 million, with approximately $240 million to be financed. (3) Relatively stable cash flow is expected from the contracted arrangements and Alberta PPAs between now and 2020. (4) Lower growth capex over the medium term (compared with the 2013 to 2015 period) should help to generate positive net free cash flow and support TAC’s financial flexibility.

DBRS recognizes that TAC’s 2016 financial results were solid and its current consolidated and deconsolidated metrics are supportive of the current ratings. DBRS does not expect any further material shift in TAC’s 2017 financial metrics, which benefit from the recently announced dividend cut, lower capex levels and the commission of South Hedland by mid-2017.

The following issues are affected: TA.PR.D, TA.PR.E, TA.PR.F, TA.PR.H and TA.PR.J.

CPX : Bonds Downgraded, Preferreds Confirmed by DBRS

Monday, April 3rd, 2017

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the Issuer Rating and Senior Unsecured Debt rating of Capital Power Corporation (CPC) to BBB (low) from BBB. The trends of all of the above-mentioned ratings were changed to Stable from Negative. The Issuer Rating was assigned on October 27, 2016, with a Negative trend, and the Senior Unsecured Debt rating was given a Negative trend on March 10, 2016. DBRS has concurrently confirmed CPC’s Preferred Shares rating at Pfd-3 (low) with a Stable trend.

DBRS’s rating actions follow a review of CPC’s 2016 financial results, the Off-Coal Agreement (OCA) with the government of Alberta and the potential structure of the Alberta capacity market post-2020. In DBRS’s view, the long-term business risk profile of CPC has weakened, particularly post-2020 once all the Alberta Power Purchase Agreements (Alberta PPAs) expire. The weakening of the business risk profile reflects two major issues: (1) Post-2020, all current Alberta PPAs will end, exposing all assets under the current Alberta PPAs to either merchant risk or the uncertainty of the Alberta capacity market. In 2016, Alberta-contracted plants generated approximately 45% of the total consolidated operating margin before corporate expenses. (2) The implementation of the Alberta Climate Leadership Plan (ACLP) will accelerate the phase-out of all coal emissions by 2030. All of CPC’s coal assets in the province will be stranded effective December 31, 2030. However, the Company is planning to convert its coal plants to gas-fired generation. DBRS believes that the cost of the coal-to-gas conversion is lower than the cost of building new gas-fired projects. DBRS recognizes that CPC and the government of Alberta reached an OCA under which CPC will receive cash payments of $52.4 million per year. This will mitigate, but not eliminate, the potential loss of cash flow from the retirement of these assets. In addition, under the ACLP, the imposition of a carbon tax of $20 per tonne of carbon dioxide emissions beginning January 1, 2017, and $30 per tonne beginning 2018. DBRS recognizes that the near-term impact is manageable as CPC has the ability to pass through the carbon tax to Alberta PPA counterparties and the carbon tax will be reflected in increased power prices in 2018. Over the longer term, DBRS believes that CPC will maintain its competitive position in the post-2020 market in Alberta. DBRS will evaluate additional information regarding market structure as it becomes available and will continue to assess the credit quality of CPC on an ongoing basis.

The trends were changed to Stable from Negative, reflecting the following: (1) Government payments of $52.4 million per year for 14 years will begin July 31, 2017, which will significantly improve CPC’s cash flow and liquidity. (2) CPC’s 2016 financial results were solid, with stable cash flow and modestly lower debt levels over 2015, resulting in strong financial metrics for the current ratings. (3) All of CPC’s commercial activities in Alberta are fully hedged for 2017 and over 50% are hedged for 2018, significantly reducing this segment’s exposure to commodity price risk. Although the hedges are at lower prices because of the currently weak pricing environment, the impact on cash flow (before government payments) is not expected to be material. (4) Cash flow should benefit from distributions from the proposed acquisition of 294 megawatts of contracted capacity in Ontario and British Columbia (expected to close in Q2 2017) and the construction of the 184-megawatt Bloom Wind project in Kansas (expected to be commissioned in Q3 2017). In the medium term, DBRS expects CPC to generate positive free cash flow, which will limit its need for additional debt and maintain its strong financial metrics for the current rating levels.

The company has the following issues outstanding: CPX.PR.A, CPX.PR.C, CPX.PR.E and CPX.PR.G.

MAPF 2016 Year-End Financials

Sunday, April 2nd, 2017

The Financial Statements and related documents for Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund are now available on the fund’s main page:

MAPF Performance: March, 2017

Sunday, April 2nd, 2017

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund’s Net Asset Value per Unit as of the close March 31, 2017, was $9.3984 after a distribution of 0.095332.

Returns to March 31, 2017
Period MAPF BMO-CM “50” Index TXPR
Total Return
CPD – according to Blackrock
One Month +3.27% +1.82% +1.81% N/A
Three Months +10.59% +9.98% +7.51% N/A
One Year +32.63% +24.02% +21.87% +21.58%
Two Years (annualized) +2.39% +3.03% +1.40% N/A
Three Years (annualized) +2.34% +1.39% +0.58% +0.23%
Four Years (annualized) +1.43% +0.77% -0.15% N/A
Five Years (annualized) +3.13% +1.80% +1.18% +0.76%
Six Years (annualized) +2.95% +2.48% +1.74%  
Seven Years (annualized) +5.60% +3.94% +3.06%  
Eight Years (annualized) +9.94% +6.51% +5.28%  
Nine Years (annualized) +9.68% +4.02% +2.96%  
Ten Years (annualized) +8.50% +2.86%    
Eleven Years (annualized) +8.22% +2.98%    
Twelve Years (annualized) +8.19% +3.17%    
Thirteen Years (annualized) +8.01% +3.08%    
Fourteen Years (annualized) +10.04% +3.62%    
Fifteen Years (annualized) +9.08% +3.67%    
Sixteen Years (annualized) +9.51% +3.51%    
MAPF returns assume reinvestment of distributions, and are shown after expenses but before fees.
CPD Returns are for the NAV and are after all fees and expenses.
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Income Fund (formerly Omega Preferred Equity) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are +1.90%, +7.02% and +20.34%, respectively, according to Morningstar after all fees & expenses. Three year performance is +1.72%; five year is +2.08%
Figures for Manulife Preferred Income Class Adv [into which was merged Manulife Preferred Income Fund (formerly AIC Preferred Income Fund)] (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are +2.29%, +9.43% & +26.83%, respectively. It will be noted that AIC Preferred Income Fund was in existence prior to August, 2009, but long term performance figures have been suppressed.
Figures for Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are +1.91%, +8.28% & +23.24%, respectively. Three year performance is +2.31%, five-year is +2.55%
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Fund (formerly Altamira Preferred Equity Fund) are +1.85%, +8.34% and +23.04% for one-, three- and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is +1.33%.

According to the fund’s fact sheet as of June 30, 2016, the fund’s inception date was October 30, 2015. I do not know how they justify this nonsensical statement, but will assume that prior performance is being suppressed in some perfectly legal manner that somebody at National considers ethical.

The figures for the NAV of BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF (ZPR) is +26.16% for the past twelve months. Two year performance is +0.25%, three year is -2.04%.
Figures for NexGen Canadian Preferred Share Tax Managed Fund (Dividend Tax Credit Class, the best performing) are -%, +% and -% for one-, three- and twelve-months, respectively.
Figures for BMO Preferred Share Fund are +6.89% and +18.64% for the past three- and twelve-months, respectively. Three year performance is -0.17%.
Figures for PowerShares Canadian Preferred Share Index Class, Series F are +26.51% for the past twelve months. The three-year figure is +1.89%; five years is +1.38%
Figures for the First Asset Preferred Share Investment Trust (PSF.UN) are no longer available since the fund has merged with First Asset Preferred Share ETF (FPR)

MAPF returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund. For more information, see the fund’s main page. The fund is available either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited.

Obviously, the last twelve months have been superb for both preferred shares in general and the fund in particular, but I think that there is still room for outsized gains. The Seniority Spread (the interest-equivalent yield on reasonably liquid, investment-grade PerpetualDiscounts less the yield on long term corporate bonds) is still quite elevated (chart end-date 2017-3-10):

pl_170310_body_chart_1
Click for Big

… and the relationship between five-year Canada yields and yields on investment-grade FixedResets is also well within what I consider ‘decoupled panic’ territory (chart end-date 2017-3-10):

pl_170310_body_chart_5
Click for Big

In addition, I feel that the yield on five-year Canadas is unsustainably low (it should be the inflation rate plus an increment of … 1%? 1.5%? 2.0%?),and a return to sustainable levels is likely over the medium term.

Of course, it’s one thing to say that ‘spreads are unsustainable and so are government yields’ and it’s quite another to forecast just how and when a more economically sustainable environment will take effect. It could be years. There could be a reversal, particularly if Trump’s international trade policies cause a severe recession or even a depression. And, of course, I could be just plain wrong about the sustainability of the current environment. But you have my opinion, for what it’s worth.

Calculation of MAPF Sustainable Income Per Unit
Month NAVPU Portfolio
Average
YTW
Leverage
Divisor
Securities
Average
YTW
Capital
Gains
Multiplier
Sustainable
Income
per
current
Unit
June, 2007 9.3114 5.16% 1.03 5.01% 1.3240 0.3524
September 9.1489 5.35% 0.98 5.46% 1.3240 0.3773
December, 2007 9.0070 5.53% 0.942 5.87% 1.3240 0.3993
March, 2008 8.8512 6.17% 1.047 5.89% 1.3240 0.3938
June 8.3419 6.034% 0.952 6.338% 1.3240 $0.3993
September 8.1886 7.108% 0.969 7.335% 1.3240 $0.4537
December, 2008 8.0464 9.24% 1.008 9.166% 1.3240 $0.5571
March 2009 $8.8317 8.60% 0.995 8.802% 1.3240 $0.5872
June 10.9846 7.05% 0.999 7.057% 1.3240 $0.5855
September 12.3462 6.03% 0.998 6.042% 1.3240 $0.5634
December 2009 10.5662 5.74% 0.981 5.851% 1.1141 $0.5549
March 2010 10.2497 6.03% 0.992 6.079% 1.1141 $0.5593
June 10.5770 5.96% 0.996 5.984% 1.1141 $0.5681
September 11.3901 5.43% 0.980 5.540% 1.1141 $0.5664
December 2010 10.7659 5.37% 0.993 5.408% 1.0298 $0.5654
March, 2011 11.0560 6.00% 0.994 5.964% 1.0298 $0.6403
June 11.1194 5.87% 1.018 5.976% 1.0298 $0.6453
September 10.2709 6.10%
Note
1.001 6.106% 1.0298 $0.6090
December, 2011 10.0793 5.63%
Note
1.031 5.805% 1.0000 $0.5851
March, 2012 10.3944 5.13%
Note
0.996 5.109% 1.0000 $0.5310
June 10.2151 5.32%
Note
1.012 5.384% 1.0000 $0.5500
September 10.6703 4.61%
Note
0.997 4.624% 1.0000 $0.4934
December, 2012 10.8307 4.24% 0.989 4.287% 1.0000 $0.4643
March, 2013 10.9033 3.87% 0.996 3.886% 1.0000 $0.4237
June 10.3261 4.81% 0.998 4.80% 1.0000 $0.4957
September 10.0296 5.62% 0.996 5.643% 1.0000 $0.5660
December, 2013 9.8717 6.02% 1.008 5.972% 1.0000 $0.5895
March, 2014 10.2233 5.55% 0.998 5.561% 1.0000 $0.5685
June 10.5877 5.09% 0.998 5.100% 1.0000 $0.5395
September 10.4601 5.28% 0.997 5.296% 1.0000 $0.5540
December, 2014 10.5701 4.83% 1.009 4.787% 1.0000 $0.5060
March, 2015 9.9573 4.99% 1.001 4.985% 1.0000 $0.4964
June, 2015 9.4181 5.55% 1.002 5.539% 1.0000 $0.5217
September, 2015 7.8140 6.98% 0.999 6.987% 1.0000 $0.5460
December, 2015 8.1379 6.85% 0.997 6.871% 1.0000 $0.5592
March, 2016 7.4416 7.79% 0.998 7.805% 1.0000 $0.5808
June 7.6704 7.67% 1.011 7.587% 1.0000 $0.5819
September 8.0590 7.35% 0.993 7.402% 1.0000 $0.5965
December, 2016 8.5844 7.24% 0.990 7.313% 1.0000 $0.6278
March, 2017 9.3984 6.26% 0.994 6.298% 1.0000 $0.5919
NAVPU is shown after quarterly distributions of dividend income and annual distribution of capital gains.
Portfolio YTW includes cash (or margin borrowing), with an assumed interest rate of 0.00%
The Leverage Divisor indicates the level of cash in the account: if the portfolio is 1% in cash, the Leverage Divisor will be 0.99
Securities YTW divides “Portfolio YTW” by the “Leverage Divisor” to show the average YTW on the securities held; this assumes that the cash is invested in (or raised from) all securities held, in proportion to their holdings.
The Capital Gains Multiplier adjusts for the effects of Capital Gains Dividends. On 2009-12-31, there was a capital gains distribution of $1.989262 which is assumed for this purpose to have been reinvested at the final price of $10.5662. Thus, a holder of one unit pre-distribution would have held 1.1883 units post-distribution; the CG Multiplier reflects this to make the time-series comparable. Note that Dividend Distributions are not assumed to be reinvested.
Sustainable Income is the resultant estimate of the fund’s dividend income per current unit, before fees and expenses. Note that a “current unit” includes reinvestment of prior capital gains; a unitholder would have had the calculated sustainable income with only, say, 0.9 units in the past which, with reinvestment of capital gains, would become 1.0 current units.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company (definition refined in May, 2011). These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-31 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: Seeking NVCC Status and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis.

The same reasoning is also applied to FixedResets from these issuers, other than explicitly defined NVCC from banks.

Yields for September, 2011, to January, 2012, were calculated by imposing a cap of 10% on the yields of YLO issues held, in order to avoid their extremely high calculated yields distorting the calculation and to reflect the uncertainty in the marketplace that these yields will be realized. From February to September 2012, yields on these issues have been set to zero. All YLO issues held were sold in October 2012.

These calculations were performed assuming constant contemporary GOC-5 and 3-Month Bill rates, as follows:

Canada Yields Assumed in Calculations
Month-end GOC-5 3-Month Bill
September, 2015 0.78% 0.40%
December, 2015 0.71% 0.46%
March, 2016 0.70% 0.44%
June 0.57% 0.47%
September 0.58% 0.53%
December, 2016 1.16% 0.47%
March, 2017 1.08% 0.55%

Significant positions were held in NVCC non-compliant regulated FixedReset issues on March 31, 2017; all of these currently have their yields calculated with the presumption that they will be called by the issuers at par prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-31 (insurers and insurance holding companies) or on a different date (SplitShares) This presents another complication in the calculation of sustainable yield, which also assumes that redemption proceeds will be reinvested at the same rate.

I will also note that the sustainable yield calculated above is not directly comparable with any yield calculation currently reported by any other preferred share fund as far as I am aware. The Sustainable Yield depends on:
i) Calculating Yield-to-Worst for each instrument and using this yield for reporting purposes;
ii) Using the contemporary value of Five-Year Canadas to estimate dividends after reset for FixedResets. The assumption regarding the five-year Canada rate has become more important as the proportion of low-spread FixedResets in the portfolio has increased.
iii) Making the assumption that deeply discounted NVCC non-compliant issues from both banks and insurers, both Straight and FixedResets will be redeemed at par on their DeemedMaturity date as discussed above.