PrefBlog

BCE Inc. has announced:

that 965,769 of its 10,144,302 fixed-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series AA (“Series AA Preferred Shares”) have been tendered for conversion on September 1, 2017, on a one-for-one basis, into floating-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series AB (“Series AB Preferred Shares”). In addition, 2,219,863 of its 9,855,698 Series AB Preferred Shares have been tendered for conversion on September 1, 2017, on a one-for-one basis, into Series AA Preferred Shares. Consequently, on September 1, 2017, BCE will have 11,398,396 Series AA Preferred Shares and 8,601,604 Series AB Preferred Shares issued and outstanding. The Series AA Preferred Shares and the Series AB Preferred Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols BCE.PR.A and BCE.PR.B, respectively.

The Series AA Preferred Shares will pay on a quarterly basis, for the 5-year period beginning on September 1, 2017, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE, a fixed cash dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 3.61%.

The Series AB Preferred Shares will continue to pay a monthly floating adjustable cash dividend for the 5-year period beginning on September 1, 2017, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE. The monthly floating adjustable dividend for any particular month will continue to be calculated based on the prime rate for such month and using the Designated Percentage for such month representing the sum of an adjustment factor (based on the market price of the Series AB Preferred Shares in the preceding month) and the Designated Percentage for the preceding month.

It will be recalled that after the sending of the conversion notice, the company announced that BCE.PR.A will pay 3.61% of par for the next five years, while BCE.PR.B will continue to pay 100% of Canadian Prime [currently 2.95%], reset quarterly, based on par.

The most logical way to analyze relative pricing of these issues is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BCE.PR.A and BCE.PR.B). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedFloater / RatchetRate Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average Prime rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

Click for Big

To my surprise, the BCE.PR.A / BCE.PR.B pair is not currently showing a significant price differential, resulting in a break-even average prime rate of 3.69% for the period to 2022-9-1. We’ll see how long that lasts!

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced (although not yet on their website):

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 9 (the “Series 9 Preferred Shares”) (TSX: MFC.PR.I) and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class 1 Shares Series 10 (the “Series 10 Preferred Shares”).

With respect to any Series 9 Preferred Shares that remain outstanding after September 19, 2017, holders thereof will be entitled to receive fixed rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife and subject to the provisions of the Insurance Companies Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on September 20, 2017, and ending on September 19, 2022, will be 4.35100% per annum or $0.271938 per share per quarter, being equal to the sum of the five-year Government of Canada bond yield as at August 21, 2017, plus 2.86%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 9 Preferred Shares.

With respect to any Series 10 Preferred Shares that may be issued on September 19, 2017 in connection with the conversion of the Series 9 Preferred Shares into the Series 10 Preferred Shares, holders thereof will be entitled to receive floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, calculated on the basis of actual number of days elapsed in each quarterly floating rate period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Manulife and subject to the provisions of the Insurance Companies Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the three-month period commencing on September 20, 2017, and ending on December 19, 2017, will be 0.89753% (3.60000% on an annualized basis) or $0.224383 per share, being equal to the sum of the three-month Government of Canada Treasury bill yield as at August 21, 2017, plus 2.86%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 10 Preferred Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series 9 Preferred Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right before 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on September 5, 2017. The news release announcing such conversion right was issued on July 27, 2017 and can be viewed on SEDAR or Manulife’s website. Conversion inquiries should be directed to Manulife’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, CST Trust Company, at 1‑800-387-0825.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 10 Preferred Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 10 Preferred Shares is subject to Manulife fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series 10 Preferred Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “MFC.PR.T”.

The notice of extension was previously reported on PrefBlog.

MFC.PR.I is a FixedReset, 4.40%+286, that commenced trading 2012-5-24 after being announced 2012-5-16.

As this issue (and the possibly forthcoming MFC.PR.T) is not NVCC compliant, it is be analyzed as having a Deemed Retraction.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., MFC.PR.I and the FloatingReset MFC.PR.T that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below current market rates, at +0.51% and +0.32%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the MFC.PR.I FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of MFC.PR.I continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the September 5 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions

Intact Financial Corporation has announced:

that it has closed its previously announced bought deal offering of 6,000,000 Class A Series 6 Preferred Shares (the “Series 6 Shares”) (the “Offering”) underwritten by a syndicate of underwriters (the “Underwriters”) led by CIBC Capital Markets together with BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial and TD Securities Inc., resulting in gross proceeds to IFC of $150 million.

The net proceeds from the Offering are intended to be used by IFC to fund a portion of the purchase price for its previously announced acquisition (the “Acquisition”) of all of the issued and outstanding shares of OneBeacon Insurance Group, Ltd. (“OneBeacon”). The closing of the Acquisition is expected to occur in the third quarter or early fourth quarter of 2017 and is subject to receipt of required regulatory approvals. If the Acquisition is not completed, the net proceeds of this Offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

Each Series 6 Share entitles the holder thereof to receive quarterly non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, if, as and when declared by the Board of Directors, on the last day of March, June, September and December in each year at a rate equal to $0.33125 per share. The initial dividend, if declared, will be paid on December 29, 2017 and will be $0.49007 per share.

The Series 6 Shares will commence trading today on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol IFC.PR.F.

IFC.PR.F is a Straight Perpetual, 5.30%, announced 2017-08-09. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the DeemedRetractibles sub-index.

As this issue is not NVCC compliant, it will be analyzed as a DeemedRetractible. Note, however, that this carries more uncertainty than it does with most other insurers because Intact is a P&C insurer, not a life company.

The issue traded 259,384 shares on its opening day of 2017-8-18 in a range of 24.75-94 before closing at 24.82-83. Vital Statistics are: