Archive for August, 2017

S&P Upgrades BRF & BEP to P-2(low)

Wednesday, August 16th, 2017

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •We are raising our long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP) to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’.
  • •The upgrade follows a revision of our assessment of the company’s relationship with parent Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
  • •We revised our group assessment of BEP to moderately strategic from nonstrategic, resulting in a one-notch uplift from the ‘bbb’ stand-alone credit profile to the final ‘BBB+’ rating.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company will continue to have fairly predictable cash flows due to its long-term contracts from its well-diversified portfolio of generation assets.


S&P Global Ratings today raised its long-term corporate credit rating on Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. (BEP) to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’. The outlook is stable.

At the same time, S&P Global Ratings raised its senior unsecured debt rating on the company to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’. S&P Global Ratings also raised its global scale preferred stock rating on BEP to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BB+’, and its Canada scale preferred stock rating to ‘P-2(Low)’ from ‘P-3(High)’. Finally, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its ‘A-2’ short-term corporate credit rating on the company.

The upgrade follows our revision of the group status between BEP and parent Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (BAM), to moderately strategic from nonstrategic following our reassessment of BAM under different criteria (for more information, see the research update on BAM published Aug. 15, 2017, on RatingsDirect). BAM indirectly holds about 60% in BEP and we believe it exerts some level of control through its ownership interest; and exerts some influence as the service provider, where it charges BEP for management, administrative, and advisory services through the master service agreement. All these factors leads us to believe there will be some level of parental support, a key factor our group assessment.

Affected issues are:

BRF.PR.A, BRF.PR.B, BRF.PR.C, BRF.PR.E and BRF.PR.F (These are from Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of BEP, and pay eligible dividends)

BEP.PR.E, BEP.PR.G, BEP.PR.I and BEP.PR.K (These are from Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. itself, and pay distributions comprised of return of capital and ordinary income)

August 15, 2017

Tuesday, August 15th, 2017

Maple bonds are having a good year:

Apple raised those funds in the Maple market, where foreign issuers match wits with domestic investors. When the game was over, Apple raised $2.5 billion at a rate of 2.513 per cent.

While the coupon Apple is required to pay represents one term of the financing, investors and issuers also focus on the spread. At 80 basis points above comparable Canada bonds, the spread is at the bottom end of the range that Apple expected to pay when the issue was launched.

The $2.5 billion issue represents the largest single tranche Maple bond issue: it is almost twice as large as the previous record, a $1.3 billion borrowing that Canadian investors provided to brewing company Anheuser-Busch last April. It is also more than what Apple had expected to raise when the deal was launched.

At $2.5 billion the financing is understood to be the largest corporate non-financial borrowing in Canadian history.

Prior to Apple’s record-breaking borrowing, Canadians had invested $8.6 billion in 10 newly issued Maple bonds this year. AT&T raised $1.35 billion via a two-tranche offering; United Parcels raised $750 million; Anheuser-Busch raised a total of $2 billion; Pepsico garnered $750 million, as did Goldman Sachs; while Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley received $1 billion each. The terms have ranged from five years (Wells Fargo) to 30 years (AT&T and Anheuser-Busch.)

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.9045 % 2,369.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.9045 % 4,347.6
Floater 3.65 % 3.69 % 116,760 18.06 3 0.9045 % 2,505.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0235 % 3,059.9
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.43 % 53,740 1.34 5 0.0235 % 3,654.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0235 % 2,851.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.42 % 4.89 % 66,205 6.10 17 -0.0628 % 2,772.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.34 % 5.33 % 68,314 14.83 20 -0.0857 % 2,909.5
FixedReset 4.40 % 4.42 % 156,972 6.33 98 -0.2690 % 2,367.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.08 % 5.53 % 113,381 6.07 30 0.0014 % 2,856.2
FloatingReset 2.63 % 3.16 % 40,927 4.22 9 -0.0255 % 2,612.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 21.28
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 21.29
Evaluated at bid price : 21.29
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.79
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.11
Bid-YTW : 8.49 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 14.20
Evaluated at bid price : 14.20
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 54,440 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 44,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.60
Bid-YTW : 3.64 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 36,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.55
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
CM.PR.R FixedReset 31,845 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 31,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.39
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 28,083 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.92
Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
There were 17 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PVS.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 26.40 – 26.75
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2408

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-09-14
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : -1.38 %

POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.90 – 24.24
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2357

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 23.63
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %

W.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 25.77 – 26.15
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2794

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

CCS.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.58 – 23.98
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3076

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 6.10 %

TD.PR.Y FixedReset Quote: 24.55 – 24.79
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1500

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.54 – 23.95
Spot Rate : 0.4100
Average : 0.3214

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 23.08
Evaluated at bid price : 23.54
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %

KML.PR.A Closes Firm On Good Volume

Tuesday, August 15th, 2017

Kinder Morgan Canada Limited has announced:

that it has completed its previously announced offering of cumulative redeemable minimum rate reset preferred shares, Series 1 (the “Series 1 Preferred Shares”). The Company issued 12,000,000 Series 1 Preferred Shares for aggregate gross proceeds of $300 million through a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotiabank, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and TD Securities. The transaction was upsized from a base size of 8,000,000 shares as a result of strong investor demand.

“This robust inaugural preferred offering is another testament to the attractiveness of KML’s integrated suite of assets,” said Dax Sanders, the Company’s Chief Financial Officer. “The transaction also represents another important step in financing the Trans Mountain Expansion Project.”

The Company intends to use the proceeds from the offering to indirectly subscribe for preferred units in Kinder Morgan Canada Limited Partnership, which in turn, intends to use such proceeds to, directly or indirectly, finance the development, construction and completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project and Base Line Terminal project as well as in connection with other potential future growth opportunities, to repay indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.

The Series 1 Preferred Shares will begin trading today on the TSX under the symbol KML.PR.A. S&P and DBRS have assigned this series a rating of P-3 (high) and Pfd-3 (high), respectively. The outstanding principal amount of the series is expected to receive 50 percent equity treatment from S&P and 100 percent equity treatment from DBRS.
Dividends on the Series 1 Preferred Shares are expected to be $1.3125 per share annually, payable quarterly on the 15th day of February, May, August and November, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Company, for the initial fixed rate period to but excluding November 15, 2022. The first dividend, if declared, will be payable November 15, 2017, in the amount of $0.3308 per share.

All of the Company’s dividends are designated “eligible dividends” for Canadian income tax purposes.

KML.PR.A is a FixedReset 5.25%+365M525 announced August 3. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.

The issue traded 714,130 shares today in a range of 24.89-00 before closing at 24.98-00. Vital statistics are:

KML.PR.A FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-15
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 5.18 %

DBRS finalized its Pfd-3(high) rating of the issue.

August 14, 2017

Monday, August 14th, 2017

Some interesting, but not particularly surprising, commentary on the effects of the fiduciary rule in the States:

The brokerage business fiercely fought the new retirement advice rule. But so far for Wall Street, it has been a gift.

The rule requires brokers to act in the best interests of retirement savers, rather than sell products that are merely suitable but could make brokers more money. Financial firms decried the restriction, which began to take effect in June, as limiting consumer choice while raising their compliance costs and potential liability.

But adherence is proving a positive. Firms are pushing customers toward accounts that charge an annual fee on their assets, rather than commissions which can violate the rule, and such fee-based accounts have long been more lucrative for the industry. In earnings calls, executives are citing the Department of Labor rule, known varyingly as the DOL or fiduciary rule, as a boon.

Dudley had some good observations on income inequality:

In my view, two main factors are responsible for this pattern of differential wage growth and the resulting increase in wage inequality. First, advances in technology have dramatically changed the nature of work, increasing the skill requirements for many jobs while displacing others. Second, the pace of globalization has accelerated in recent decades, with increased cross-border trade, investment, immigration, and the emergence of global supply chains. Together, these economic forces have contributed to significant job losses in certain sectors, most notably manufacturing. The resulting decline in demand for middle- and lower-skilled workers has resulted in fewer jobs and has depressed wages for many in those industries. Other, less important factors behind the rise in inequality include the decline in private sector labor unions and the falling real value of the minimum wage.

At the same time, technological change and globalization have created jobs in areas such as engineering and software development. Demand has been particularly high for knowledge workers, resulting in strong wage growth in certain sectors. All told, the forces of technological change and globalization have contributed to wage inequality by pushing up wages for those toward the top, and stifling wage growth for workers toward the middle and bottom of the wage distribution. As I have said in previous remarks, we need to do a better job of helping those hurt by globalization.

I call his remarks good, of course, because I agree with them. One thing that might have been mentioned is inefficiency in the creative destruction process. Technology and globalization are bringing down the price of various outputs; in the past, we have seen that these cheaper outputs become inputs to other processes in new sectors, but it takes a while.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4734 % 2,348.1
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.4734 % 4,308.6
Floater 3.69 % 3.72 % 118,260 17.98 3 1.4734 % 2,483.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1335 % 3,059.2
SplitShare 4.70 % 4.43 % 54,681 1.35 5 0.1335 % 3,653.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1335 % 2,850.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.41 % 4.80 % 66,691 6.04 17 -0.0093 % 2,774.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.34 % 5.34 % 68,451 14.86 20 0.1953 % 2,912.0
FixedReset 4.39 % 4.39 % 159,157 6.34 98 0.1974 % 2,373.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.08 % 5.50 % 114,150 6.07 30 -0.0333 % 2,856.2
FloatingReset 2.63 % 3.17 % 40,735 4.22 9 0.2561 % 2,612.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Premium -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 24.39
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 14.01
Evaluated at bid price : 14.01
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.42
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.54
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 19.44
Evaluated at bid price : 19.44
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 66,107 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-09-13
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : -6.63 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 63,188 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.76
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible 51,910 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.62
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 50,684 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.18
Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 26,579 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
BNS.PR.E FixedReset 22,428 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.67
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %
There were 14 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.30 – 22.80
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3691

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.30
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %

RY.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.81 – 25.18
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2525

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 24.39
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.65 – 26.00
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2499

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : -0.63 %

EML.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 26.50 – 26.81
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.2341

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-17
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.50
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %

TRP.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 26.75 – 26.95
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1274

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %

CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.51 – 23.80
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2242

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-14
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %

S&P Downgrades AIM To P-4(low)

Monday, August 14th, 2017

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on Montreal-based Aimia Inc. to ‘BB-‘ from ‘BB+’ based on our view that the company’s business and cash flow would be pressured following Air Canada’s notice that it will not renew its contract with Aimia in 2020.
  • •At the same time, we are lowering our issue-level ratings on the company’s senior secured notes to ‘BB’ from ‘BBB-‘.
  • •We are also lowering our global scale rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B+’ and our Canada scale rating to ‘P-4(Low)’ from ‘P-4(High)’ on Aimia’s preferred shares.
  • •At the same time, we are removing all our ratings on Aimia from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications May 12, 2017.
  • •The negative outlook reflects our view of the uncertainty associated with the timing and magnitude of reward redemption and potential for lower gross billings; limited visibility of member behavior toward the Aeroplan program; and execution risks associated with the company’s ability to sign-up new partners, sell noncore assets, and meaningfully improve its cost structure.


S&P Global Ratings also lowered its issue-level ratings on the company’s senior secured notes to ‘BB’ from ‘BBB-‘(one notch above the corporate credit rating). The senior secured debt has a ‘2’ recovery rating, indicating our expectation of substantial (70%-90%, rounded estimate 75%) recovery in a default scenario.

At the same time, S&P Global Ratings lowered its global scale rating to ‘B-‘ from ‘B+’ and its Canada scale rating to ‘P-4(Low)’ from ‘P-4(High)’ on the company’s preferred shares.

Finally, S&P Global Ratings removed all of its ratings on Aimia from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications May 12, 2017. The outlook is negative.

The downgrade and negative outlook reflect our view of the significant risks and uncertainty Aimia faces following Air Canada’s previous announcement not to renew the company’s contract with Aimia post-June 2020. We believe this development will likely affect Aimia’s value proposition and pressure the company’s business prospects in the next few years. In our view, the loss of a major anchor redemption partner for the points accumulated by Aimia’s Aeroplan loyalty members will likely reduce the appeal of the Aeroplan program to its financial card partners’ customers. As a result, there is the meaningful risk of reduced gross billings (a proxy for cash revenue) and higher-than-average reward redemption activity (expenses) that could affect the company’s EBITDA for the foreseeable future. Although the near-term results might not reflect these risks, without an attractive airline partner announcement the possibility of a surge in redemption activity through 2020 could reduce Aimia’s cash flow and weaken its liquidity. The company plans to mitigate the risks through Aeroplan-focused initiatives, corporate-level cost cutting, and disposal of unprofitable and noncore assets. However, execution risks associated with cost-cutting initiatives or delay in asset sales could limit Aimia’s ability to support its profitability and financial flexibility.

Our negative outlook on Aimia reflects our view that there is an increased risk on the company’s cash flow and financial flexibility due to the uncertainty associated with rising reward redemptions and reduced gross billings along with limited visibility on member behavior toward the Aeroplan program. Also, the execution risks associated with potential cost savings and asset sales could further weaken the credit measures compared with our forecast scenario.

Affected issues are AIM.PR.A, AIM.PR.B and AIM.PR.C.

This follows the DBRS downgrade to Pfd-5(high) and the previous suspension of dividends and S&P Downgrade to P-4(high).

August PrefLetter Released!

Sunday, August 13th, 2017

The August, 2017, edition of PrefLetter has been released and is now available for purchase as the “Previous edition”. Those who subscribe for a full year receive the “Previous edition” as a bonus.

The August edition contains an evaluation of the CPD Portfolio, as of 2017-7-31.

PrefLetter may now be purchased by all Canadian residents.

Until further notice, the “Previous Edition” will refer to the August, 2017, issue, while the “Next Edition” will be the September, 2017, issue, scheduled to be prepared as of the close September 8 and eMailed to subscribers prior to market-opening on September 11.

PrefLetter is intended for long term investors seeking issues to buy-and-hold. At least one recommendation from each of the major preferred share sectors is included and discussed.

Note: My verbosity has grown by such leaps and bounds that it is no longer possible to deliver PrefLetter as an eMail attachment – it’s just too big for my software! Instead, I have sent passwords – click on the link in your eMail and your copy will download.

Note: The PrefLetter website has a Subscriber Download Feature. If you have not received your copy, try it!

Note: PrefLetter eMails sometimes runs afoul of spam filters. If you have not received your copy within fifteen minutes of a release notice such as this one, please double check your (company’s) spam filtering policy and your spam repository – there are some hints in the post Sympatico Spam Filters out of Control. If it’s not there, contact me and I’ll get you your copy … somehow!

Note: There have been scattered complaints regarding inability to open PrefLetter in Acrobat Reader, despite my practice of including myself on the subscription list and immediately checking the copy received. I have had the occasional difficulty reading US Government documents, which I was able to resolve by downloading and installing the latest version of Adobe Reader. Also, note that so far, all complaints have been from users of Yahoo Mail. Try saving it to disk first, before attempting to open it.

Note: There have been other scattered complaints that double-clicking on the links in the “PrefLetter Download” email results in a message that the password has already been used. I have been able to reproduce this problem in my own eMail software … the problem is double-clicking. What happens is the first click opens the link and the second click finds that the password has already been used and refuses to work properly. So the moral of the story is: Don’t be a dick! Single Click!

Note: Assiduous Reader DG informs me:

In case you have any other Apple users: you need to install a free App from the apple store called “FileApp”. It comes with it’s own tutorial and allows you to download and save a PDF file.

However, Assiduous Reader Adrian informs me in the comments to the January 2015 release:

Some nitpicking for DG:
FileApp costs $1.19 in the Apple Store.

But Adrian2 now advises:

Well, as of now, FileApp is free (again?).

BBD.PR.B / BBD.PR.D : 32% Net Conversion to FixedFloater

Sunday, August 13th, 2017

Bombardier has made no explicit announcement regarding the results of the interconversion privilege between BBD.PR.B AND BBD.PR.D, possibly because doing so would require a fat government subsidy. However, we can determine what happened by comparing the figures disclosed in their 17Q2 report (or the 2016 Annual Report) with the “Shares Out” field published on the TMX website for BBD.PR.B and BBD.PR.D.

Calculation of Net Conversion
  BBD.PR.B BBD.PR.D
Shares Out Prior
(per 17Q2 report)
9,692,521 2,307,479
Shares Out Now
(per TMX)
5,811,736 6,188,264

Thus we see that there has been a net conversion of 3,880,785 shares from BBD.PR.B (the RatchetRate issue) to BBD.PR.D (the FixedFloater issue), which represents 32% of the total float.

It is also of interest to note that there is nothing on the Bombardier website or on SEDAR regarding the numbers of shares currently outstanding, or regarding the results of the conversion privilege, but the bank-dominated Toronto Stock Exchange knows all about it! This is similar to the selective disclosure noted with respect to the IAG.PR.G conversion results that the regulators are supposed to be so concerned about; but as long as their very important buddies and future employers at the banks are advised, it seems they feel actual investors can go to hell.

Assiduous Readers will recall that in my terminology, BBD.PR.B is a Ratchet Rate preferred, currently paying 100% of Prime, reset quarterly. BBD.PR.D is a FixedFloater which will now pay $0.99575 p.a., or 3.983% of its $25 par value. The latter rate resets every Exchange Date; the next exchange date will be 2022-8-1. Both issues have been relegated to the Scraps subindex since inception on credit concerns.

I previously made no recommendation regarding conversion, on the grounds that the issues were expected to trade at approximately the same price and that investors should choose the alternative best suited for their individual circumstances. The market has decided to make me look like an idiot, with BBD.PR.B being quoted at 10.21-42 and BBD.PR.D at 11.10-28 as of August 11, resulting in a break-even prime rate of 2.95% over the next five years; but we’ll see how long that lasts. It’s the lowest of all the FixedFloater / RatchetRate pairs at the moment:

pairs_ff_170811
Click for Big

DF.PR.A 2016 Annual Report

Saturday, August 12th, 2017

Dividend 15 Split Corp. II has released its Annual Report to November 30, 2016, but it is no longer available on the company website and must be retrieved from the highly secretive SEDAR website; I am not permitted to link directly to the report, but the coordinates are “Dividend 15 Split Corp. II Feb 23 2017 12:42:52 ET Annual report – English PDF 683 K”.

DF / DF.PR.A Performance
Instrument One
Year
Three
Years
Five
Years
Whole Unit +14.03% +8.03% +11.28%
DF.PR.A +5.38% +5.38% +5.38%
DF +32.42% +12.80% 22.28%
S&P/TSX 60 Index +15.71% +7.98% +8.26%

Using the S&P TSX 60 index rather than “Dividend Aristocrats” seems a little odd to me – but we’ll let them choose their benchmark!

Figures of interest are:

MER: 1.06% of Whole Unit value, “excluding any one time offering expenses. Management expense ratio is based on total expenses for the stated year and is expressed as an annualized percentage of average net asset value during the year.”

Average Net Assets: No units were issued or redeemed during the year and price action was moderate, so it’s fair to take a straight average of the beginning and end of year figures: (221.6-million + 213.5-million) / 2 = 218-million

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Dividends received of 8,381,184 divided by average net assets of 218-million is 3.84%

Income Coverage: Net Investment Income of 6.062-million divided by Preferred Share Distributions of 7.425-million is 81.6%

August 11, 2017

Friday, August 11th, 2017
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5692 % 2,314.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.5692 % 4,246.0
Floater 3.74 % 3.76 % 119,364 17.90 3 -1.5692 % 2,447.0
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0785 % 3,055.1
SplitShare 4.71 % 4.46 % 56,119 1.36 5 -0.0785 % 3,648.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0785 % 2,846.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.41 % 4.85 % 62,807 6.05 17 0.0326 % 2,774.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.35 % 5.35 % 69,503 14.85 20 -0.0600 % 2,906.4
FixedReset 4.40 % 4.40 % 158,787 6.35 98 0.1179 % 2,369.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.08 % 5.52 % 114,906 6.07 30 0.1153 % 2,857.1
FloatingReset 2.64 % 3.14 % 41,423 4.23 9 -0.0102 % 2,606.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 13.71
Evaluated at bid price : 13.71
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 13.85
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.60
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 13.84
Evaluated at bid price : 13.84
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.30
Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
TRP.PR.K FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.75
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 7.11 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.36
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 8.27 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 3.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 22.41
Evaluated at bid price : 22.83
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 4.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 22.74
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.R FixedReset 64,279 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 39,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset 30,134 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
MFC.PR.H FixedReset 28,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.48
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
MFC.PR.O FixedReset 28,446 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.69
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 25,875 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
There were 14 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.40 – 24.96
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3326

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 24.15
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %

HSE.PR.E FixedReset Quote: 23.58 – 24.20
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.4244

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 22.82
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.16 – 20.70
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3501

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.16
Bid-YTW : 6.57 %

PVS.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.26 – 25.65
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.2621

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %

TD.PF.D FixedReset Quote: 23.27 – 23.60
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2115

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2047-08-11
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.27
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.37 – 21.65
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1744

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 7.17 %

MFC.PR.I To Be Extended

Friday, August 11th, 2017

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced (on July 27):

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any of its currently outstanding 10,000,000 Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class 1 Shares Series 9 (the “Series 9 Preferred Shares”) (TSX: MFC.PR.I) on September 19, 2017. As a result, subject to certain conditions described in the prospectus supplement dated May 16, 2012 relating to the issuance of the Series 9 Preferred Shares (the “Prospectus”), the holders of the Series 9 Preferred Shares have the right, at their option, to convert all or part of their Series 9 Preferred Shares on a one-for-one basis into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class 1 Shares Series 10 of Manulife (the “Series 10 Preferred Shares”) on September 19, 2017. A formal notice of the right to convert Series 9 Preferred Shares into Series 10 Preferred Shares will be sent to the registered holders of the Series 9 Preferred Shares in accordance with the share conditions of the Series 9 Preferred Shares. Holders of Series 9 Preferred Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series 9 Preferred Shares into Series 10 Preferred Shares. Holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 9 Preferred Shares into Series 10 Preferred Shares on such date will retain their Series 9 Preferred Shares, unless automatically converted in accordance with the conditions below.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the conditions that: (i) if, after September 5, 2017, Manulife determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 9 Preferred Shares outstanding on September 19, 2017, then all remaining Series 9 Preferred Shares will automatically be converted into an equal number of Series 10 Preferred Shares on September 19, 2017, and (ii) alternatively, if, after September 5, 2017, Manulife determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 10 Preferred Shares outstanding on September 19, 2017, then no Series 9 Preferred Shares will be converted into Series 10 Preferred Shares. In either case, Manulife will give written notice to that effect to any registered holders of Series 9 Preferred Shares affected by the preceding minimums on or before September 12, 2017.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series 9 Preferred Shares for the 5-year period commencing on September 20, 2017, and ending on September 19, 2022, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series 10 Preferred Shares for the 3-month period commencing on September 20, 2017, and ending on December 19, 2017, will be determined and announced by way of a news release on August 21, 2017. Manulife will also give written notice of these dividend rates to the registered holders of Series 9 Preferred Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series 9 Preferred Shares who wish to exercise their right of conversion should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right before 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on September 5, 2017. Conversion inquiries should be directed to Manulife’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, CST Trust Company, at 1-800-387-0825.

Subject to certain conditions described in the Prospectus, Manulife may redeem the Series 9 Preferred Shares, in whole or in part, on September 19, 2022 and on September 19 every five years thereafter and may redeem the Series 10 Preferred Shares, in whole or in part, after September 19, 2017.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 10 Preferred Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 10 Preferred Shares is subject to Manulife fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series 10 Preferred Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “MFC.PR.T”.

MFC.PR.I is a FixedReset, 4.40%+286, that commenced trading 2012-5-24 after being announced 2015-5-16.

I will have more on this when the reset rate is announced on August 21.