July 22, 2010

The Bank of Canada has released a working paper by David Dupuis and Yi Zheng titled A Model of Housing Stock for Canada:

Using an error-correction model (ECM) framework, the authors attempt to quantify the degree of disequilibrium in Canadian housing stock over the period 1961–2008 for the national aggregate and over 1981–2008 for the provinces. They find that, based on quarterly data, the level of housing stock in the long run is associated with population, real per capita disposable income, and real house prices. Population growth (net migration, particularly for the western provinces) is also an important determinant of the short-run dynamics of housing stock, after controlling for serial correlation in the dependent variable. Real mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and a number of other variables identified in the literature are found to play a small role in the short run. The authors’ model suggests that the Canadian housing stock was 2 per cent above its equilibrium level at the end of 2008. There was likely overbuilding, to varying degrees, in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

The Bank of Canada also released the July 2010 Monetary Policy Report – good solid stuff, but nothing particularly noteworthy or interesting.

Volume was down a bit in the Canadian preferred share market, but still good, as PerpetualDiscounts came in with another solid gain of 15bp, while FixedResets gained 4bp, taking the yield on the latter class below 3.50%. This is the 12th-lowest yield on record for this index.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.84 % 2.92 % 22,470 20.22 1 -0.2375 % 2,073.2
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 3,154.6
Floater 2.51 % 2.15 % 43,489 21.97 4 0.0000 % 2,248.4
OpRet 4.88 % -1.59 % 100,711 0.09 11 0.1452 % 2,342.1
SplitShare 6.26 % 6.13 % 74,530 3.41 2 0.1513 % 2,216.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1452 % 2,141.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.91 % 5.29 % 106,655 1.81 4 -0.0491 % 1,940.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.84 % 5.89 % 182,359 14.03 73 0.1548 % 1,855.4
FixedReset 5.32 % 3.48 % 343,407 3.45 47 0.0408 % 2,222.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
HSB.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-22
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.50
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-22
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
RY.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-22
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.Y FixedReset 101,870 Nesbitt bought 12,300 from Scotia at 27.49 and 10,000 from National at 27.50. Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 27.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.50
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 64,715 Nesbitt sold 20,000 to anonymous at 26.15; Desjardins crossed 35,600 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-11-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.14
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset 52,900 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 27.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.35
Bid-YTW : 3.48 %
GWO.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 50,600 TD crossed 50,000 at 19.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-07-22
Maturity Price : 19.32
Evaluated at bid price : 19.32
Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
MFC.PR.E FixedReset 39,042 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 26.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.75
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
CM.PR.L FixedReset 36,613 Nesbitt bought 16,500 from CIBC at 27.99.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.76
Bid-YTW : 3.42 %
There were 36 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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