November 6, 2012

It’s not a preferred share issuer – but it’s a sign of the times:

DBRS has today downgraded the Issuer Rating of Torstar Corporation (Torstar or the Company) to BBB (low) from BBB. The trend is Stable and the rating is no longer Under Review with Negative Implications. The downgrade reflects DBRS’s view that Torstar’s earnings profile has been structurally affected by a consumer shift to digital forms of media as the Company has struggled to sustain organic revenues and profitability. The new rating also reflects DBRS’s view that weakening demand will continue to place pressure on the Company’s revenues, margins and cash flow generation going forward. DBRS’s concern is not based primarily on the Company’s debt level, as Torstar has remained prudent in terms of financial management, but rather the Company’s income and cash-generating prospects.

There’s an interesting conflict of trends in consumer borrowing:

Overall non-mortgage debt loads continued to increase during the third quarter, up 1.8 per cent from the same quarter of last year, the credit-monitoring firm [Equifax Canada] said in its latest Quarterly Credit Trends Report released Tuesday. However, only 1.22 per cent of debts were unpaid after 90 days or more in the July-September quarter.

That’s down sharply from 1.37 per cent in the previous quarter and the lowest delinquency rate on record going back to early 2007, before the recession began.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums gaining 13bp, FixedResets off 1bp and DeemedRetractibles winning 15bp. Volatility was average. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4277 % 2,471.7
FixedFloater 4.13 % 3.46 % 34,929 18.39 1 0.0000 % 3,895.7
Floater 2.79 % 3.00 % 57,603 19.71 4 0.4277 % 2,668.8
OpRet 4.64 % 3.26 % 72,244 1.34 4 -0.5703 % 2,562.2
SplitShare 5.35 % 4.43 % 62,302 4.46 3 0.3261 % 2,869.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5703 % 2,342.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.27 % 1.29 % 72,743 0.30 29 0.1262 % 2,316.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.90 % 4.91 % 100,969 15.56 3 0.0964 % 2,595.6
FixedReset 4.99 % 3.00 % 208,507 3.93 74 -0.0055 % 2,446.0
Deemed-Retractible 4.91 % 3.50 % 132,208 1.11 46 0.1500 % 2,396.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.O OpRet -2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
GWO.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2012-12-06
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.79
Bid-YTW : -23.30 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2042-11-06
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.28
Bid-YTW : 2.34 %
ENB.PR.N FixedReset 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.58 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset 44,035 Scotia crossed 29,900 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : 3.15 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 42,907 RBC crossed 38,900 at 26.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.83
Bid-YTW : 3.26 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 42,188 TD bought 15,400 from Nesbitt at 24.94.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 2.83 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset 41,389 National crossed 25,000 at 25.72.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.65
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 38,040 Nesbitt crossed 31,200 at 25.38.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : -0.23 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 34,800 National crossed 24,300 at 25.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.O OpRet Quote: 25.31 – 26.04
Spot Rate : 0.7300
Average : 0.4413

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %

CIU.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 27.20 – 27.50
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1838

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.20
Bid-YTW : 1.80 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.65 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2026

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 4.88 %

GWO.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 26.00 – 26.30
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2140

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 3.01 %

FTS.PR.E OpRet Quote: 26.87 – 27.15
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1969

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.87
Bid-YTW : -1.33 %

PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.61 – 26.89
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2011

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.61
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %

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