May 21, 2013

Bernanke gave a wonderful speech on innovation and economic growth:

Finally, pessimists may be paying too little attention to the strength of the underlying economic and social forces that generate innovation in the modern world. Invention was once the province of the isolated scientist or tinkerer. The transmission of new ideas and the adaptation of the best new insights to commercial uses were slow and erratic. But all of that is changing radically. We live on a planet that is becoming richer and more populous, and in which not only the most advanced economies but also large emerging market nations like China and India increasingly see their economic futures as tied to technological innovation. In that context, the number of trained scientists and engineers is increasing rapidly, as are the resources for research being provided by universities, governments, and the private sector. Moreover, because of the Internet and other advances in communications, collaboration and the exchange of ideas take place at high speed and with little regard for geographic distance. For example, research papers are now disseminated and critiqued almost instantaneously rather than after publication in a journal several years after they are written. And, importantly, as trade and globalization increase the size of the potential market for new products, the possible economic rewards for being first with an innovative product or process are growing rapidly. In short, both humanity’s capacity to innovate and the incentives to innovate are greater today than at
any other time in history.

The spinning wheel goes ’round and ’round:

The U.S. spring homebuying season has been marked by a frenzy of demand fueled by the Federal Reserve’s drive to push down borrowing costs, a scarcity of listings and Wall Street’s new appetite for foreclosed homes. While values remain well below their peak, economists including Stan Humphries of Zillow Inc. (Z) and Mark Vitner of Wells Fargo & Co. assert prices in some areas are rising at an unsustainable pace — a dramatic shift from early 2012, when billionaire Warren Buffett said housing “remains in a depression.”

U.S. home prices jumped almost 11 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest gain since the height of the real estate boom in 2006, CoreLogic Inc. reported last week. Values are rising faster than incomes, an indication that prices may fall in some cities once higher mortgage rates erode affordability, Humphries said. Investor purchases will inevitably cool, adding another potential hit to the market, according to Vitner.

Silver is having interesting times:

Silver for immediate delivery tumbled as much as 7 percent to $20.6985 an ounce, and was at $21.345 at 11:32 a.m. in Singapore. The ratio surged to 64.89, the highest since August 2010. Gold lost as much as 1.5 percent to $1,338.85 an ounce, the lowest price since April 18, and was at $1,347.23. Gold is down for an eighth session, the worst run since March 2009.

Global photovoltaic installations rose at their slowest pace in at least six years in 2012, according to Natixis SA, citing a report by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association. Weak European solar-panel sales will constrain growth in industrial demand for silver, Nic Brown, head of commodities research at Natixis, wrote in a May 16 report.

But not everything is plunging:

Beef prices are hitting all-time highs as supply tightens in the United States thanks to drought-stricken grasslands, expensive corn feed and a surge in demand after a cold spring kept North Americans away from the grill.

The cattle herd in the United States is the smallest it has been since 1952, by some estimates. The recent string of droughts has hammered ranchers needing grass, corn, and hay to keep their animals fat. These factors helped push wholesale beef prices to successive record highs last week. Concerning crop reports are adding to the pressure.

Julie Dickson gave a speech that was devoid of interest. Of more interest was a Globe and Mail report that:

Julie Dickson relayed her fears in a speech during which she said she wouldn’t seek a second term as the head of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions and will step down from the post next year.

I should run a pool on who hires her.

It was a dull day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualPremiums up 4bp and both FixedResets and DeemedRetractibles gaining 1bp. Volatility was non-existent. Volume was at the low end of average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1034 % 2,560.6
FixedFloater 3.89 % 3.11 % 32,002 18.82 1 -0.8526 % 4,223.3
Floater 2.72 % 2.95 % 79,685 19.81 4 -0.1034 % 2,764.8
OpRet 4.83 % 0.78 % 68,238 0.11 5 -0.0854 % 2,612.9
SplitShare 4.81 % 4.01 % 100,571 4.09 5 -0.1100 % 2,980.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0854 % 2,389.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.20 % 3.82 % 95,863 0.52 32 0.0449 % 2,380.3
Perpetual-Discount 4.84 % 4.88 % 190,855 15.63 4 0.0507 % 2,687.5
FixedReset 4.88 % 2.62 % 248,609 3.33 81 0.0148 % 2,520.6
Deemed-Retractible 4.87 % 3.39 % 133,496 0.75 44 0.0062 % 2,462.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
No individual gains or losses exceeding 1%!
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 71,771 National crossed 25,000 at 25.13 and 40,000 at 25.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 59,287 RBC crossed 49,500 at 26.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.80
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 57,014 National crossed 50,000 at 25.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.80
Bid-YTW : 2.71 %
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 55,563 RBC crossed 48,700 at 26.60.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.55
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 55,460 TD crossed 50,000 at 25.74.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.66
Bid-YTW : 2.66 %
RY.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 53,050 TD crossed 50,000 at 26.48.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-06-23
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.41
Bid-YTW : -12.01 %
There were 29 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 24.42 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4223

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-05-21
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.42
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %

BNA.PR.E SplitShare Quote: 25.60 – 25.98
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2438

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 26.25 – 26.54
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1982

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 2.83 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 25.03 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.4600
Average : 0.3684

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.03 – 25.25
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1425

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 25.77 – 26.05
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2188

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-05-21
Maturity Price : 23.68
Evaluated at bid price : 25.77
Bid-YTW : 2.82 %

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