Month: August 2025

Nothing much happened today in the continuing saga of the Lisa Cook – Trump lawsuit:

An emergency court hearing over President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook ended with no immediate ruling from the judge overseeing the high-stakes legal battle.

US District Judge Jia Cobb spent more than two hours Friday morning hearing arguments over Cook’s request to keep her job on the prominent board while her legal challenge plays out.
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Cobb has asked for more written arguments to be submitted to her by next Tuesday. It’s possible she rules after then, or takes additional time to sift through how to best proceed with the case. Her options include setting it on an expedited track for a prompt resolution of Cook’s underlying claims.

Though Cobb, an appointee of former President Joe Biden, held off for now on making an initial ruling in the case, she also made clear that she wasn’t prepared to fully buy into arguments pushed by either Cook or Trump.

The judge pushed back on a suggestion by Justice Department attorney Yaakov Roth that federal courts have no authority to second-guess a decision by a president to fire a member of the Federal Reserve “for cause.” But even with that judicial power, Cobb said, there still may be some level of deference by a court to the president’s decision-making.

“Deferential doesn’t mean that there’s no probing of it,” the judge said. “You just assume good faith, you defer.”

But Cobb also appeared sympathetic to arguments pushed by Cook’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, that Cobb wasn’t given adequate notice of Trump’s reason for removing her, as well as an opportunity to defend herself against the fraud allegations underpinning the president’s decision.

“You’re not suggesting what happened here would satisfy due process requirements?” the judge asked Roth at one point.

“Was anything sent to her directly?” she added, referring to the fact that Trump’s had only posted a letter addressed to Cook announcing her firing on social media. “You still have to serve someone. You have to give them information.”

But Lowell ran into issues with Cobb over his argument that Trump’s decision to lean on the fraud allegations was pretextual since he has been vocal about his desire to install members on the board who are more aligned with him on monetary policy.

“I’m unconformable with the pretext argument,” the judge said at one point.

Canada 25Q2 GDP showed a contraction:

The Canadian economy contracted sharply in the second quarter as trade tensions with the United States hammered exports and weighed on business investment.

Real gross domestic product declined 1.6 per cent at an annualized rate, the first quarterly contraction in nearly two years, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The result was in line with the Bank of Canada’s projection but considerably worse than Bay Street analysts were anticipating. A Reuters poll ahead of the data expected a 0.6-per-cent decline.
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The downturn in the second quarter was led by a massive 26.8-per-cent annualized drop in exports as U.S. President Donald Trump’s levies began to bite and tariff front-running in the first quarter went into reverse. Automobile and industrial machinery exports were hit particularly hard. Imports declined 5.1 per cent.

The uncertainty created by the trade war also weighed on business investment, which fell at an annualized pace of 10.1 per cent in the second quarter, the worst result since 2016, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Naturally, there was an effect on the market:

Market-implied odds of a quarter-point rate cut by the Bank of Canada next month shot up in the wake of this morning’s weaker-than-expected GDP reading for the second quarter.
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Money markets were predicting chances of a rate cut on Sept. 17 at close to 40% before the GDP figures were released. They shot up to about 47% after the data were released, implying almost equal odds of whether there will be a rate cut next month or not.

Monthly employment and CPI data will still be released before the Bank of Canada will make its decision on a September rate cut.

The Canadian dollar immediately reacted to the data, falling by two-tenths of a cent to 72.55 cents US. It didn’t take long for it, however, to recover.
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Here’s how implied probabilities of future interest rate moves stood in swaps markets moments [before and] after the 8:30 a.m. data, according to LSEG data. The current overnight rate is 2.75%. While the bank moves in quarter-point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.

Pre-Announcement Swaps Market

Post-Announcement Swaps Market

Continuing the Trump-Cook reporting from yesterday, Lisa Cook has filed her lawsuit:

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook is suing to keep her job on the board, which helps set interest rates, after President Donald Trump said he was removing her from her role earlier this week.

Cook’s lawsuit, filed Thursday morning in federal court in Washington, DC, asks for a judge to rule that Trump’s attempt to remove her is unlawful and that she remains an active member of the Federal Reserve.

A hearing on her request for a temporary restraining order has been scheduled for 10 a.m. ET on Friday in front of Judge Jia Cobb, an appointee of former President Joe Biden.

Cook’s lawsuit sets the stage for what could be a high-stakes legal battle with major implications for the Fed and the power of the presidency, even as Trump moves to consolidate his hold over parts of the government once considered sacrosanct and free from political influence.

Now, Lord knows I don’t want to make this a political blog – and get the comment section jammed up with whack-a-doodles – but I really want to mention my admiration for the one group of professionals that has stood up during the tumultuous times: the medical profession.

The American Academy of Pediatrics was the first:

The American Academy of Pediatrics released its updated recommendations for vaccines on Tuesday, including Covid-19 shots for infants and young children – a break from the current US for Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations.

“It differs from recent recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices of the CDC, which was overhauled this year and replaced with individuals who have a history of spreading vaccine misinformation,” the AAP said in a news release.
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Tension between AAP and those driving federal health policy has been running high for months, particularly around changes to the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP.
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Dr. Sean O’Leary, chair of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases, said at the time that AAP liaisons to ACIP did not participate in the meeting “because we view it as illegitimate.”

“What we heard in this meeting was really a false narrative that the current vaccine policies are flawed and that they need fixing,” he said.

On August 22, it was reported that they had company – the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists also endorsed a different policy than that of the CDC:

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists on Friday reaffirmed support for Covid-19 vaccination during pregnancy, becoming the second major professional medical association to break from current US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations this week.

“While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently removed its recommendation that pregnant and lactating individuals receive updated COVID-19 vaccines, ACOG’s recommendations have not changed,” according to the updated practice advisory. “The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists continues to recommend the use of updated COVID-19 vaccines in individuals contemplating pregnancy and in pregnant, recently pregnant, and lactating individuals.”

Now, four senior people have resigned from the CDC in support of Dr. Susan Monarez who, apparently, refused to follow instructions and fire them and has therefore been fired herself:

Monarez’s ouster, first reported by The Washington Post, burst into public view over several tumultuous hours Wednesday. Just weeks into her tenure as director, she had clashed with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy over vaccine policy and her refusal to fire several veteran CDC leaders, according to people familiar with the situation.
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Monarez’s ouster followed days of internal pressure led by Kennedy’s deputy chief of staff and close confidante, Stefanie Spear, according to two people familiar with the situation. It also came soon after Kennedy summoned Monarez to Washington and demanded that she fire Dr. Debra Houry, the agency’s chief medical officer and deputy director of programs and science; Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases; and Dr. Dan Jernigan, director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Monarez refused, angering Kennedy and triggering his move to remove her.

Monarez also clashed with Kennedy and his team over vaccine policies, including an impending announcement that could draw links between immunizations and autism, according to a person familiar with the situation.
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Shortly after Monarez’s departure was confirmed Wednesday, three other top CDC officials also announced that they were leaving. Dr. Debra Houry, the agency’s chief medical officer and deputy director of programs and science; Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases; and Dr. Dan Jernigan, director of the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, were agency veterans whom staffers said were well-liked and trusted.
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Dr. Jennifer Layden, director of the Office of Public Health Data, Surveillance, and Technology, also left the CDC on Wednesday, according to a source familiar with the situation who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to share the information.

I did enjoy reading Dr. Demetre Daskalakis’ letter of resignation, posted on X.com

My resignation letter from CDC.

Dear Dr. Houry,

I am writing to formally resign from my position as Director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), effective August 28, 2025, close of business. I am happy to stay on for two weeks to provide transition, if requested.

This decision has not come easily, as I deeply value the work that the CDC does in safeguarding public health and am proud of my contributions to that critical mission. However, after much contemplation and reflection on recent developments and perspectives brought to light by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., I find that the views he and his staff have shared challenge my ability to continue in my current role at the agency and in the service of the health of the American people. Enough is enough.

While I hold immense respect for the institution and my colleagues, I believe that it is imperative to align my professional responsibilities to my system of ethics and my understanding of the science of infectious disease, immunology, and my promise to serve the American people. This step is necessary to ensure that I can contribute effectively in a capacity that allows me to remain true to my principles.

I am unable to serve in an environment that treats CDC as a tool to generate policies and materials that do not reflect scientific reality and are designed to hurt rather than to improve the public’s health. The recent change in the adult and children’s immunization schedule threaten the lives of the youngest Americans and pregnant people. The data analyses that supported this decision have never been shared with CDC despite my respectful requests to HHS and other leadership. This lack of meaningful engagement was further compounded by a “frequently asked questions” document written to support the Secretary’s directive that was circulated by HHS without input from CDC subject matter experts and that cited studies that did not support the conclusions that were attributed to these authors. Having worked in local and national public health for years, I have never experienced such radical non-transparency, nor have I seen such unskilled manipulation of data to achieve a political end rather than the good of the American people.

It is untenable to serve in an organization that is not afforded the opportunity to discuss decisions of scientific and public health importance released under the moniker of CDC. The lack of communication by HHS and other CDC political leadership that culminates in social media posts announcing major policy changes without prior notice demonstrate a disregard of normal communication channels and common sense. Having to retrofit analyses and policy actions to match inadequately thought-out announcements in poorly scripted videos or page long X posts should not be how organizations responsible for the health of people should function. Some examples include the announcement of the change in the COVID-19 recommendations for children and pregnant people, the firing of scientists from ACIP by X post and an op-ed rather than direct communication with these valuable experts, the announcement of new ACIP members by X before onboarding and vetting have completed, and the release of term of reference for an ACIP workgroup that ignored all feedback from career staff at CDC.

The recent term of reference for the COVID vaccine work group created by this ACIP puts people of dubious intent and more dubious scientific rigor in charge of recommending vaccine policy to a director hamstrung and sidelined by an authoritarian leader. Their desire to please a political base will result in death and disability of vulnerable children and adults. Their base should be the people they serve not a political voting bloc.

I have always been first to challenge scientific and public health dogma in my career and was excited by the opportunity to do so again. I was optimistic that there would be an opportunity to brief the Secretary about key topics such as measles, avian influenza, and the highly coordinated approach to the respiratory virus season. Such briefings would allow exchange of ideas and a shared path to support the vision of “Making America Healthy Again.” We are seven months into the new administration, and no CDC subject matter expert from my Center has ever briefed the Secretary. I am not sure who the Secretary is listening to, but it is quite certainly not to us. Unvetted and conflicted outside organizations seem to be the sources HHS use over the gold standard science of CDC and other reputable sources. At a hearing, Secretary Kennedy said that Americans should not take medical advice from him. To the contrary, an appropriately briefed and inquisitive Secretary should be a source of health information for the people he serves. As it stands now, I must agree with him, that he should not be considered a source of accurate information.

The intentional eroding of trust in low-risk vaccines favoring natural infection and unproven remedies will bring us to a pre-vaccine era where only the strong will survive and many if not all will suffer. I believe in nutrition and exercise. I believe in making our food supply healthier, and I also believe in using vaccines to prevent death and disability. Eugenics plays prominently in the rhetoric being generated and is derivative of a legacy that good medicine and science should continue to shun.

The recent shooting at CDC is not why I am resigning. My grandfather, who I am named after, stood up to fascist forces in Greece and lost his life doing so. I am resigning to make him and his legacy proud. I am resigning because of the cowardice of a leader that cannot admit that HIS and his minions’ words over decades created an environment where violence like this can occur. I reject his and his colleagues’ thoughts and prayers, and advise they direct those to people that they have not actively harmed.

For decades, I have been a trusted voice for the LGBTQ community when it comes to critical health topics. I must also cite the recklessness of the administration in their efforts to erase transgender populations, cease critical domestic and international HIV programming, and terminate key research to support equity as part of my decision.

Public health is not merely about the health of the individual, but it is about the health of the community, the nation, the world. The nation’s health security is at risk and is in the hands of people focusing on ideological self-interest.

I want to express my heartfelt gratitude for the opportunities for growth, learning, and collaboration that I have been afforded during my time at the CDC. It has been a privilege to work alongside such dedicated professionals who are committed to improving the health and well-being of communities across the nation even when under attack from within both physically and psychologically.

Thank you once again for the support and guidance I have received from you and previous CDC leadership throughout my tenure. I wish the CDC continued success in its vital mission and that HHS reverse its dangerous course to dismantle public health as a practice and as an institution. If they continue the current path, they risk our personal well-being and the security of the United States.

Sincerely,

Demetre C. Daskalakis MD MPH (he/his/him)
7:14 PM · Aug 27, 2025

A man of integrity, pulling no punches!

The problem is: Trump wins anyway. Assuming that the plan is to destroy confidence in American instutitions (presuming that this is in order to make life for oligarchs a little freer from regulation and annoying facts) then duelling recommendations is a great place to start. How many people in the world are really qualified to make a sober choice between the Ob/Gyn’s recommendations ad the CDC’s? Not many. But we all have to choose anyway which means we can all create our own little bubbles of trusted authorities, picking and choosing according to factors that are not particularly germane to the actual science.

Gaining respect and building a superb team is hard. Losing respect and breaking up a superb team is easy.

To continue the Trump-Cook reporting from yesterday … Janet Yellen has weighed in:

Former Federal Reserve Chair and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen slammed President Trump on Wednesday for moving to fire Fed board of governors member Lisa Cook, calling his actions “unlawful” and “dangerous.”

“US President Donald Trump’s claim that he has ‘fired’ Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook ‘for cause’ is not only unlawful. It is profoundly dangerous,” she wrote in an opinion piece in the Financial Times.
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Yellen defended Cook in her article, saying she has done her job “with integrity.”

She also said Trump’s attempt to fire her was motivated by “intimidation.”

“By targeting Cook, Trump is sending a chilling message to every member of the Federal Reserve board and to the regional reserve bank presidents who take part in the Federal Open Market Committee: express disagreement with the president’s views and you are next,” she wrote.

Yellen also said that Trump’s move against Cook undermines the independence of the Fed, presents long-term inflation risks and lowers the value of the dollar.

She cited instances of political capture of the monetary authority in different countries, including Germany, Hungary, Argentina and Turkey.

“The names change, but the story is the same,” she wrote.

As Assiduous Reader niagara points out in a comment, the US curve has steepened considerably since Trump took office, which is consistent with the market resisting a potential premature or overdone monetary easing.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.69%, equivalent to 7.40% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates continue to yield 5.03%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now 235bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) narrowing from the 240bp reported August 20.

Lisa Cook is fighting Trump’s attempt to fire her:

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, announced on Tuesday he is filing a lawsuit to challenge President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her on Monday evening.

“President Trump has no authority to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. His attempt to fire her, based solely on a referral letter, lacks any factual or legal basis. We will be filing a lawsuit challenging this illegal action,” he said in a statement sent to CNN.

Matt Egan at CNN puts Trump in dubious company:

In 1970, President Richard Nixon tapped Arthur Burns, one of his top economic aides, to lead the Fed.

Even though Burns was known as an inflation fighter, historians say Nixon successfully pressured his handpicked Fed chief to juice the economy with low rates to boost his political fortunes.

A review of telephone conversations “clearly reveals that President Nixon pressured Burns, both directly and indirectly…to engage in expansionary monetary policies prior to the 1972 election,” according to a 2006 paper published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives. “Richard Nixon demanded and Arthur Burns supplied an expansionary monetary policy and a growing economy in the run-up to the 1972 election.”
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More recently, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan fired his country’s central bank chief in 2021 and installed a loyalist. As the Turkish central bank slashed interest rates at Erdogan’s behest, the Turkish lira crashed and inflation blew past 80%.

To my surprise, markets yawned at the impending tussle:

Canada’s main stock index closed up on Tuesday as strong bank earnings and higher gold prices helped boost shares, even as oil prices slid and concerns deepened about the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence. Wall Street also ended higher.
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The index also benefited from gold prices, which rose to a more than two-week high as investors took refuge in safe-haven yellow metal after fears that U.S. President Donald Trump would infringe on the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged improprieties in obtaining mortgage loans. Spot gold was trading at 3,390.52 per ounce, up 0.71% at 4:13 p.m. ET, which lifted the mining-companies-tracker materials index, with almost 12.5% weight on the TSX, up 1.41% at market close.
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The U.S. two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks expectations for Fed action, slipped to 3.68% from 3.73% late Monday.

Trump has crossed a bright line:

President Donald Trump on Monday said he has fired Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, according to a letter addressed to her posted on his social media — the first such instance in the central bank’s 111-year history.

The move itself is unprecedented represents a significant escalation of the president’s battle against the Fed, which he has blamed for taking too long to lower interest rates.

Cook has recently come under fire by Trump and members of his administration for allegedly committing mortgage fraud. The Justice Department has said it plans to investigate those allegations first raised by Federal Housing Finance Director Bill Pulte.

The Fed did not immediately respond to CNN’s inquiry.

It’s unclear whether Trump has the legal authority to fire Cook over these allegations. The law specifies that a president may only remove members of the Fed’s board “for cause” – though what merits a for-cause firing has not been explicity defined.

This situation was discussed on August 20 and August 21.

It will be most interesting to see what the Treasury market makes of this tomorrow morning!

Powell gave his anticipated speech at Jackson Hole:

“The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Mr. Powell said in his final speech as Fed chair at an annual conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson, Wyo. With borrowing costs weighing on the economy, the labor market softening and inflation risks contained, “the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said the chair.

Mr. Powell highlighted the recent slowdown in monthly jobs growth, but questioned whether it was a function of a pullback in demand from companies or a reduction in the supply of workers resulting from President Trump’s immigration crackdown. He said that left the labor market in a “curious kind of balance” that warranted caution.

“This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising,” he said. “And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.”

Mr. Powell stressed, however, that inflation was still too high even as he sought to push back on concerns that Mr. Trump’s tariffs would lead to a persistent rise in price pressures. Rather he said a “reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived — a one-time shift in the price level.”

“Of course, ‘one-time’ does not mean ‘all at once.’ It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks,” he added.

Still, Mr. Powell acknowledged that the Fed was in a “challenging situation” given that the central bank’s two goals of low, stable inflation and a healthy labor market are now in tension with one another. Against this backdrop, he said, the Fed would need to “proceed carefully” with its plans to reduce the degree of restraint it is imposing on the economy.

There were, of course, market effects:

Traders boosted bets on a September rate cut after Powell’s comments, now placing a nearly 90% chance of a reduction, versus about 75% before Powell’s remarks.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury fell to 4.25% from 4.33% late Thursday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, sank to 3.69% from 3.79% in a notable move for the bond market.

Canada’s two-year bond yield fell to 2.69% from 2.73% earlier in the day. The Canadian dollar rose about half a cent, its largest gain since May 23, reflecting losses in the U.S. dollar. It was trading at 72.34 cents US by late afternoon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 846.24 points, or 1.89%, to 45,631.74, surpassing its most recent record close on December 4, 2024. The S&P 500 gained 96.74 points, or 1.52%, to 6,466.91 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 396.22 points, or 1.88%, to 21,496.54.

The S&P/TSX composite index ended up 277.70 points, or 0.99%, at 28,333.13, surpassing the record closing high it posted on Thursday. For the week, the index was up 1.53%, its third straight weekly gain.

And those rugged free-enterprise Republican types have endorsed state capitalism:

The United States government is making an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, giving the Trump administration a roughly 10% stake in the struggling chipmaker, Intel and the president announced on Friday.

“It is my Great Honor to report that the United States of America now fully owns and controls 10% of INTEL, a Great American Company that has an even more incredible future,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Friday
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The remaining $5.7 billion that Intel had been awarded but not yet granted from the CHIPs and Science Act will fund the equity, along with $3.2 billion that Intel had been promised from the Department of Defense as part of the Secure Enclave program. The government is purchasing 433.3 million shares at a price of $20.47 per share, or a 9.9% stake in the company.
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Trump also said he would do more of these types of deals. His administration has been weighing opportunities to take similar stakes in various US companies in critical industries, two people familiar with the White House discussions on the matter told CNN last week.

I’m with Tulane University professor Walter Isaacson on this one:

In a recent CNBC interview, Tulane University professor Walter Isaacson expressed concern over the precedent. “You’re seeing state capitalism here, where the government is interfering in all sorts of ways in corporate decisions,” he said.

Isaacson cautioned that such interventions often evolve into crony capitalism, where favoured companies benefit from political ties rather than market merit.

“That is a recipe for not only disaster but just sort of a corrupt sense of messiness,” he added.

According to the industry expert, direct equity stakes risk undermining free-market dynamics and investor confidence. Note that INTC shares are still down nearly 9.0% versus its year-to-date high.

So there’s more on the attempt to discredit Lisa Cook of the Fed:

A Justice Department official is set to probe Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook after she was accused by a member of President Donald Trump’s administration of committing mortgage fraud, according to a letter sent Thursday to Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

The letter, seen by CNN, was written by Ed Martin, a lawyer at the department who’s tasked with investigating mortgage fraud. Martin said the situation “requires further examination.”

In a letter dated August 15, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte said that Cook claimed two properties — a home in Michigan and a condo in Atlanta — as her primary home addresses. On Thursday, he said on social media the administration is “probing a 3rd property owned by Cook.”

Pulte, a vocal Trump ally, said in an interview with Bloomberg earlier on Thursday that he looked into Cook, a then-President Joe Biden appointee, based off a tip. He added that his agency has used artificial intelligence software from Palantir to track potential mortgage fraud.

In his letter, Martin also said: “I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your Board. Do it today before it is too late!”

“After all, no American thinks it is appropriate that she serve during this time with a cloud hanging over her,” he said.

This keeps getting more mysterious. This was started because of a tip? How did the tipster know? Does Pulte actually have copies of the documents, or what?

And Martin, the Justice Department guy. I really have to question the propriety of him writing “I encourage you to remove Ms. Cook from your Board. Do it today before it is too late!” at any time, let alone before “further examination”. That’s not what Justice Departments do, at least not in civilized countries.

There’s some more commentary on the spectacle of free-enterprise, freedom-loving, double-entry-bookkeeping rugged American types kow-towing to Trump:

The orthodoxy manifested itself in familiar ways. Groups that claimed the mantle of individual liberties would decry new legislation. Talk radio and podcasts would mock unnamed bureaucrats for ham-fisted overreach. And powerful business lobbies were quick to denounce — in press releases and even lawsuits — regulations or taxes they saw as government overreach.

But when faced with President Donald Trump’s efforts to seize control of private enterprise — such as his recent arrangement to have the US pocket a portion of Nvidia’s sales to China, his social media outbursts at individual executives, his moves to take a stake in Intel, and his use of executive powers to cajole banks and law firms he perceives as insufficiently loyal — those same groups have gone quiet.

Take the US Chamber of Commerce, the largest business advocacy group in the country.

Last year, the Chamber sued a federal consumer watchdog group for attempting to cap credit card late fees at $8 a month, claiming the agency “exceeded its statutory authority.” In 2023, it sued the Biden administration over provisions for Medicare price negotiations in the Inflation Reduction Act, claiming the move would consolidate “unfettered and unchecked power” to the department of Health and Human Services.

But under Trump’s second term, the Chamber has had little to say publicly about Trump’s aggressive meddling in the private sector.

Similarly, the Business Roundtable, another DC-based lobbying group that represents hundreds of chief executives, has rarely been shy about denouncing what it sees as presidential overreach in the form of taxes and environmental regulations. This year, though, the group has been largely MIA on the MAGA shift toward a style of capitalism that more closely resembles the autocratic regimes of Russia and China.

Both groups have criticized Trump’s trade war, warning that tariffs hurt American businesses. But neither has spoken out about the president’s more direct assault on free enterprise.

Neither the Chamber of Commerce nor the Business Roundtable responded to multiple requests for comment.

And now Trump’s going after another Fed governor:

President Donald Trump on Wednesday called on a top policymaker at the Federal Reserve to resign, after one of his allies alleged that she committed mortgage fraud.

In a letter dated August 15, Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte urged the Justice Department to investigate a pair of mortgages taken out in recent years by Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

On Wednesday, Trump referenced those allegations on his social media platform, writing that “Cook must resign, now!!!”

But Cook pushed back on calls to resign, saying she would not be pushed out of the Fed.
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In the letter, which Pulte posted on social media, he alleged that Cook, a Biden appointee, “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”

Pulte refers to a mortgage Cook took out in June 2021 to purchase a property in Ann Arbor, Michigan, which stipulated it would be her primary home address for at least a year, according to the letter. Cook then took out another mortgage in Georgia two weeks later, Pulte said, also declaring that property as her primary home address. Cook’s Georgia home was later listed as a rental, according to Pulte.

“There can be no mortgage fraud. This came across our desk, and it’s my duty to report it,” Pulte said. “It wouldn’t matter if she were a Republican or a Democrat. It is what it is.”

I’d like to know exactly what is meant by ‘this came across our desk’. How? I mean, these are banking documents; in what manner did they cross Pulte’s desk? Did they become public as a result of Cook’s governorship and were found by a dedicated Republican dirt patrol? Or was the process more … complex?

One way or another, stay tuned! This is getting dirty.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.72%, equivalent to 7.44% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 5.03%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now 240bp, a sharp narrowing from the 255bp reported August 13.