September 10, 2013

Jayson Horner, chief executive officer, president, and co-founder of CanDeal, writes a piece in the Globe on electronic bond trading:

As regulators seek to enact change, they must balance their transparency objectives with the needs of market participants, respecting the unique properties and characteristics of each market and its participants.

An optimally transparent solution will facilitate price discovery, but should not compromise an investor’s ability to successfully execute a trade strategy, or obstruct liquidity providers looking to prudently manage their risk. Interestingly, the knock-on effect of excessive transparency can ultimately also harm the retail investor to the extent that institutional investors act as fiduciaries for their benefit – through for example third-party asset management, pension plans and insurance.

That’s certainly the right idea, but harm to retail investors doesn’t stop there. Harm is also caused when dealers can’t make money out of corporate debt in the public markets, so they become reluctant to finance inventory, which in turn encourages issuers to go the private placement route. This is happening in the States; I have often railed in this blog about the harm that TRACE is doing to all participants in the US corporate bond market.

As I have also said before, regulators must ask themselves: what is the market for? Specifically, what is this market for? Is it something that, ideally, will allow grandma to invest her $5,000 at a so-called fair price? Or is it something that, ideally, will allow Very Big Manufacturing, Inc., to issue $500-million in debt with entirely reasonable prospects of rolling it on maturity?

Grandma’s got the alternative of mutual funds and ETFs which, for most people, make more sense than individual bond purchases anyway. Very Big Manufacturing, Inc.’s alternatives are to look for money abroad (at much higher risk and expense), or issue as a private placement (reducing investor choice), or simply not to expand due to financing difficulties.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 10bp, FixedResets down 20bp and DeemedRetractibles losing 23bp. The Performance Highlights table is surprisingly lengthy and comprised almost entirely of losers. Volume was extremely high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2283 % 2,586.7
FixedFloater 4.31 % 3.61 % 33,478 18.09 1 -2.3462 % 3,855.9
Floater 2.60 % 2.90 % 67,498 19.89 5 0.2283 % 2,792.9
OpRet 4.63 % 2.92 % 66,780 0.54 3 0.0644 % 2,624.0
SplitShare 4.76 % 4.79 % 52,834 4.09 6 0.0675 % 2,945.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0644 % 2,399.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.94 % 5.95 % 114,987 0.08 2 -0.0798 % 2,232.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.67 % 5.80 % 130,784 14.13 36 -0.1001 % 2,289.8
FixedReset 4.94 % 3.89 % 241,921 3.84 85 -0.2026 % 2,445.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.20 % 5.11 % 191,194 6.93 43 -0.2285 % 2,340.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.47
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -2.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 20.57
Evaluated at bid price : 20.57
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 23.94
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.31
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.28
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 20.16
Evaluated at bid price : 20.16
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.73
Bid-YTW : 6.61 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.91
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.74
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.72
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 2.27 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 230,408 Desjardins crossed 72,400 at 24.92; TD crossed 139,500 at 24.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.91
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset 88,696 Nesbitt crossed 30,200 at 24.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.83
Evaluated at bid price : 24.08
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 68,770 Desjardins crossed 38,000 at 25.00; RBC crossed 15,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 66,564 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 23.83.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.72
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BMO.PR.J Deemed-Retractible 54,541 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 49,921 TD crossed 35,000 at 24.52.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-04-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
There were 59 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.57 – 21.25
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.4470

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 20.57
Evaluated at bid price : 20.57
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.00 – 21.50
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3134

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.55 – 25.20
Spot Rate : 0.6500
Average : 0.4738

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %

BAM.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 25.51 – 25.85
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2318

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.51
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.80 – 22.23
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3306

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-09-10
Maturity Price : 21.80
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %

SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.74 – 22.04
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2081

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.74
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %

2 Responses to “September 10, 2013”

  1. nervousone says:

    Is it over for prefs for the time being?

    Here are the facts:

    Obama went on television last night, and confirmed the lack of international effectiveness of the USA by declaring his tolerance for Syria’s behaviour. This was anticipated in long bond trading yesterday, with yields rising sharply, and yields continue to rise to the 3.3% level today.

    The FOMC will meet next week, and with close to 100% certainty will announce the commencement of tapering, we just don’t know by how much at this point. This continues to negatively impact the long bond.

    The media has avoided any focus on the next round of “fiscal cliff” banter, but it has already been labeled, “FC2”, and is about to get significant airplay once the Syrian story starts to fizzle. This is a bond-killing event.

    Finally, by the time these three items play out, it’ll be time for the September jobs number . . . if it’s bad, the FOMC will only taper a bit . . . if it’s good, they could totally end tapering, or even start discussing things like “inflation” and interest rate hikes.

    Adrian, you are about to lose that $100 bill . . . the long bond will be well over 3.5% by first week of October, and there will be plenty of prefs to choose from under $20.

    I’m just not sure if this will be a buying opportunity any more.

  2. adrian2 says:

    You’re misstating the terms of the bet; for now, I’ve found this piece from June 27, 2013: http://www.prefblog.com/?p=22342&cpage=1#comment-268310 –> should we check the calendar?

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