December 11, 2013

I’m glad to see I’m not alone in my worries over central clearing:

History tells us, using the metric of loss experience, that CCP management is strong. But history is based on a bygone era that is radically different from today’s multi-instrument, multi-national and legally complex world. As CCPs fight for membership, the danger is that the delinquent firm will gain admittance and cause the contagion we all fear. I sense already a relaxation in the risk approaches of several medium-sized firms. CCPs can protect themselves from problem members by multiple means. The most effective, but often least favored, is to avoid them like the plague! The preferred method is through credit assessment and application of tough margins. But the latter option works best in a monopoly environment and not in today’s multi-choice option of CCP selection. And, if the EU dream of full interoperability were ever to come to fruition, risks unacceptable to one CCP could well insinuate themselves, albeit with added margin, into that platform through the interoperability route.

The second great danger facing CCPs is that of instrument coverage. Traditionally, CCPs have been cautious about expanding their instrument coverage. They have focused on the liquidity of any instruments admitted to clearing. They have assessed carefully any barriers to fast liquidation if they were ever forced to unwind a position. They have sought comfort from the presence of committed parties who would be willing to adopt open positions run by a defaulting member. And they have examined the history of the instrument to ensure that they understand its performance over time in both bull and bear sessions of its existence. Such a prudent approach is, I sense, being challenged both by competitive forces but also, more significantly, by the regulatory thrust for ever more central clearing. The problem with many of the new instruments is both their esoteric nature, appeal to specialized segments of the market place and narrow base of truly committed market makers. The risk is that, in times of turmoil, they may become illiquid. The probability is that, in times of stress, many will become one-way markets. A CCP will only be low risk if it can unwind its positions and realize collateral to compensate for any shortfall with immediacy.

It was a negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 34bp, FixedResets down 22bp and DeemedRetractibles off 19bp. FixedResets were notable on the poor side of the Performance Highlights table. Volume was extremely high.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.71%, equivalent to 7.42% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long Corporates now yield a little over 4.8%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 260bp, a significant widening from the 250bp reported December 4.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.9444 % 2,536.8
FixedFloater 4.40 % 3.67 % 40,843 17.95 1 0.2320 % 3,816.4
Floater 2.95 % 2.94 % 63,213 19.90 3 0.9444 % 2,739.0
OpRet 4.63 % -2.14 % 83,805 0.08 3 0.2790 % 2,669.4
SplitShare 4.88 % 4.72 % 75,154 4.51 5 0.3482 % 2,997.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2790 % 2,440.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 5.56 % 135,563 4.32 13 -0.0199 % 2,298.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.69 % 5.71 % 175,567 14.25 25 -0.3356 % 2,312.9
FixedReset 5.01 % 3.68 % 229,546 3.47 83 -0.2154 % 2,466.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.14 % 4.17 % 197,530 1.32 42 -0.1933 % 2,396.8
FloatingReset 2.62 % 2.32 % 327,352 4.42 5 -0.0079 % 2,465.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -3.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.23
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.53
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 21.28
Evaluated at bid price : 21.28
Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.67
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.10
Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 19.11
Evaluated at bid price : 19.11
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.83
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.82
Evaluated at bid price : 24.07
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 2.94 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 24.46
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
CGI.PR.D SplitShare 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 4.07 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 728,130 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 125,562 RBC crossed blocks of 23,000 and 14,500, both at 25.05, and bought 36,400 from National at the same price. TD crossed 25,000 at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 4.05 %
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 92,713 RBC crossed 74,100 at 25.49.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset 57,691 RBC crossed 32,100 at 25.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %
IAG.PR.F Deemed-Retractible 50,890 Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 25.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 50,820 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 13,900 and 26,500, both at 25.22. TD crossed 24,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-02-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 1.84 %
There were 82 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.J OpRet Quote: 26.25 – 26.79
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3454

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 1.05 %

ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.50 – 23.17
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5144

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 20.86 – 21.48
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.4702

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 20.86
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.07 – 24.41
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2162

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 23.82
Evaluated at bid price : 24.07
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %

ENB.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 23.53 – 23.89
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2692

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.53
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 23.00 – 23.29
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2045

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-11
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %

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