October 26, 2016

I am among many people who like to ponder the future of employment amidst all the automation nowadays. Not with any apocalyptic bias – it is self-evident that the cost of everything is, ultimately, a labour cost and therefore labour income – but with what I hope is a less jaundiced eye.

I think we may be entering a new era of craftsmanship, in which we have Big Business producing commodities for the masses and small, internet-enabled businesses taking a more careful and individualistic approach. I may be biased in this, because that’s the business model of Hymas Investment Management Inc., but there’s other evidence we’re heading that way.

Consider craft beer:

But it wasn’t too long ago that American beer drinkers were largely limited to what beer buffs call MillCoorWeiser beer—the mass produced American lager most prominently sold under the Budweiser, Miller, and Coors brand names. In their 2015 article, Economists Kenneth G. Elzinga, Carol Tremblay and Victor J. Tremblay (Elzinga et al.) report that prior to 1970 over 99% of the beer consumed in the U.S. was the traditional lager beer produced by the large domestic breweries. Needless to say, it was a bland time for American beer.

Then in 1965, entrepreneur and innovator Fritz Maytag purchased the failing Anchor Brewing Company, located in San Francisco, and the revival of craft beer was under way. Maytag revived the brewery, and according to Elzinga et al. his operation inspired other entrepreneurs to join him in the craft beer renaissance.

num-macro-and-craft-brewers
Click for Big

And in Toronto:

The number of manufacturing firms has increased in recent years. “We attribute the growth to a lot more micro-manufacturing, as well as the ‘maker movement’” of independent inventors, designers and tinkerers, as well as tech hardware companies, says [manager of entrepreneurship services for Toronto] Mr. [Chris] Rickett.

“Part of making sure manufacturing continues to exist is making sure that people know it is this very creative job opportunity. It needs rebranding, and the maker movement is really good at that.”

What’s more, he says, new tech tools are making it a lot easier to open a manufacturing business.

“It used to be if you wanted to make a product, the process of prototyping that and getting it to market was very long,” he explains. “Now you can prototype it down at the library, using their MakerBot [3-D printer], then put that prototype on Kickstarter and presell the product.”

The upshot is that the timelines and barriers to starting a manufacturing company have been drastically reduced.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1660 % 1,720.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1660 % 3,143.2
Floater 4.36 % 4.51 % 42,876 16.38 4 1.1660 % 1,811.5
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0331 % 2,899.0
SplitShare 4.83 % 4.62 % 41,728 2.08 6 -0.0331 % 3,462.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0331 % 2,701.2
Perpetual-Premium 5.35 % 4.69 % 76,982 0.18 23 -0.0977 % 2,699.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.13 % 5.14 % 96,311 15.24 15 -0.2936 % 2,905.1
FixedReset 4.85 % 4.20 % 164,894 6.90 93 0.2227 % 2,097.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.02 % 3.50 % 110,901 0.42 32 -0.0420 % 2,807.6
FloatingReset 2.88 % 3.72 % 42,037 4.93 12 0.1688 % 2,262.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 23.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Premium -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : -3.15 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
W.PR.J Perpetual-Premium -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.36
Bid-YTW : -9.55 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.98
Bid-YTW : 10.89 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 19.60
Evaluated at bid price : 19.60
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 19.71
Evaluated at bid price : 19.71
Bid-YTW : 4.03 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 14.61
Evaluated at bid price : 14.61
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 10.73
Evaluated at bid price : 10.73
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 11.80
Evaluated at bid price : 11.80
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.B FixedReset 438,604 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-02-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.73
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BIP.PR.B FixedReset 256,100 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.68
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
RY.PR.E Deemed-Retractible 231,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : -2.27 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 117,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 12.14
Evaluated at bid price : 12.14
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset 110,954 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BIP.PR.C FixedReset 95,278 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.72
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
There were 38 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 21.46 – 21.89
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2658

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.46
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 15.51 – 15.93
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2825

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 15.51
Evaluated at bid price : 15.51
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

SLF.PR.K FloatingReset Quote: 16.25 – 16.75
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3997

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 8.72 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 20.30 – 20.59
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2007

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 6.64 %

TD.PF.D FixedReset Quote: 20.97 – 21.20
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1489

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-10-26
Maturity Price : 20.97
Evaluated at bid price : 20.97
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 19.77 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1559

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.77
Bid-YTW : 6.86 %

4 Responses to “October 26, 2016”

  1. MichaelA says:

    Ars Technica has nice article on robotics that you might be interested in reading: http://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2016/10/the-automation-revolution/

  2. BarleyandHops says:

    Automation, 3D printing, and robotics…I am comfortably agreeable to

    http://montreal.ctvnews.ca/federal-relief-possible-for-canada-s-ailing-newspaper-industry-1.3126917

    Not!

  3. malcolmm says:

    I’m a fan of craft beer. I also regularly patronize farmers markets which similarly provide high quality (I hope) products from small businesses.

    There is a limit to how large a market share these small businesses can capture. Craft beer is at least twice the price of mass market beer. Produce purchased from farmers markets is two to five times the mass market price. I’m willing and able to pay the price premium but anyone who is living from paycheque to paycheque won’t be able to. In my experience that is a very large segment of the population.

  4. jiHymas says:

    I’m willing and able to pay the price premium but anyone who is living from paycheque to paycheque won’t be able to.

    I agree; I believe that the bulk of all production (by unit count) will be the heavily automated, cookie-cutter main-lines. But I think all product categories will have a premium segment of some degree that will require a more highly skilled workforce.

    Most categories have this now, to a certain extent; you’ve mentioned beer and food. How about shoes? There are a few shoe-menders around nowadays (people laugh when I refer to them as cobblers) but at present a pair of hand-made shoes is a very expensive proposition.

    Furniture is another area for budding craftsmen; it would be very nice to see a return to baroque Victorian furniture and intricate inlay.

    Naturally, some people will find themselves buying commodities exclusively, while the super-rich will concentrate not just on craft-goods, but the very high end of these craft-goods.

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