PrefBlog

The big news of the day was the FOMC meeting:

Overall economic activity appears to have picked up after edging down in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions. The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1‑1/2 to 1-3/4 percent and anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in the Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet that were issued in May. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Lisa D. Cook; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action was Esther L. George, who preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.5 percentage point to 1-1/4 percent to 1-1/2 percent. Patrick Harker voted as an alternate member at this meeting.

But the big market mover, it appears, was the accompanying economic projections.

The Globe & Mail remarks:

Bond yields fell after the release of Fed projections on Wednesday that showed economic growth slowing to a below-trend rate of 1.7 per cent, and policymakers expecting to cut interest rates in 2024. Stocks on Wall Street ended the day higher.

Interest rate futures markets also reflected about an 85 per cent probability that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points at its next policy meeting in July. For September’s meeting, however, the greater probability – at more than 50 per cent – was for a 50-basis-point increase.

Meanwhile, in the frozen North:

Canadian home prices and sales dropped in May in a second straight month of declines, as a sharp jump in borrowing costs rattles the market and makes it harder for homebuyers to get a mortgage.

The national home price index, which adjusts for pricing volatility, fell 0.8 per cent to $822,900 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association, or CREA, with more sizable price declines in what had been some of the country’s hottest markets — southern Ontario and Chilliwack B.C.

The number of home resales dropped by 8.6 per cent from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis, bringing the level of activity back in line with pre-pandemic times, CREA said. Last month’s sales were down in three-quarters of the country, with the greatest declines in the major cities, including Toronto.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.98%, equivalent to 7.77% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield 4.94%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has widened sharply to 285bp from the 245bp reported June 8.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, June 15th, 2022 at 7:10 pm and is filed under Market Action. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.