December 30, 2009

Pop quiz! What do the securities and airline industries have in common?:

If these customers can’t use laptops or wi-fi and have to waste half their day going through security, they may abandon airlines at a faster rate than they are already, turning instead to modern business tools such as the web and teleconferencing, Kokonis said. Over the past year, he added, international premium flights were down 30 to 35 per cent.

What makes this even worse, [Robert] Mann [president of R.W. Mann & Company Inc., a consultancy in Port Washington, N.Y.] said, is that most in the industry realize new security measures are essentially political moves aimed at assuaging the public.

“It’s security theatre,” Mann said, noting that “there are a lot of us in the business that roll our eyes when these things happen.”

CIBC has issued covered bonds:

Series CB3 (CHF 375 million) covered bonds have a coupon rate of 1.75% and a maturity date of January 30, 2015. Series CB4 (CHF 300 million) covered bonds have a coupon rate of three-month CHF LIBOR plus 0.1% and a maturity date of December 30, 2011.

Swiss Government 5-years (there must be a cool name for them!) are now yielding 0.16%. Three month CHF LIBOR is 0.25%.

The last Canadian 5-Year NHA MBS auction was on October 16 with an average yield of 3.268%, as part of the Insured Mortgage Purchase Plan. Five year Canadas averaged 2.71% in October.

Preferred shares got on the up escalator today, although volume remained seasonably light. PerpetualDiscounts were up 31bp, while FixedResets gained 22bp, taking yields down to … 3.59%!

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.86%, equivalent to 8.20% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.4x. Long Corporates are now a hair over 6.0%, with a total return of -1.63% on the month-to-date, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 220bp, slightly tighter than the 225bp reported on December 16, but still wider than “Credit Crunch Normal” of 200bp and far above the long-term range of 100-150bp.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5149 % 1,620.7
FixedFloater 5.67 % 3.82 % 37,670 19.00 1 0.5238 % 2,749.3
Floater 2.42 % 2.83 % 107,699 20.15 3 0.5149 % 2,024.7
OpRet 4.84 % -1.69 % 120,224 0.10 15 0.4590 % 2,332.8
SplitShare 6.44 % -6.24 % 195,292 0.08 2 0.0222 % 2,085.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4590 % 2,133.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.85 % 5.69 % 73,882 2.30 7 -0.0113 % 1,886.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.80 % 5.86 % 192,709 14.12 68 0.3133 % 1,799.9
FixedReset 5.39 % 3.59 % 324,259 3.84 41 0.2250 % 2,174.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 19.71
Evaluated at bid price : 19.71
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-07-19
Maturity Price : 26.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.72
Bid-YTW : 0.87 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 20.78
Evaluated at bid price : 20.78
Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
TD.PR.Q Perpetual-Discount 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 24.87
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 1.85 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 18.06
Evaluated at bid price : 18.06
Bid-YTW : 6.61 %
NA.PR.N FixedReset 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-09-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.94
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
CIU.PR.B FixedReset 2.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 28.62
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
BAM.PR.H OpRet 2.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-01-29
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.30
Bid-YTW : -29.72 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 2.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-30
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.03
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.K FixedReset 65,650 Nesbitt crossed 60,800 at 26.65.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.60
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 40,400 Nesbitt crossed 10,700 at 26.85, then another 28,500 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2013-09-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.80
Bid-YTW : 3.06 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 32,915 Recent Inventory Blow-out.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 24.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.33
Bid-YTW : 6.12 %
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 32,400 CIBC bought 18,500 from National at 28.15.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 28.14
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
CM.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 28,096 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-12-30
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 27,667 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 28.15
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

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