Category: New Issues

New Issues

New Issue : CM FixedReset, 5.15%+362, NVC

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced:

that it had entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets for an issue of 10 million Basel III-compliant Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 51 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 51 Shares”) priced at $25.00 per Series 51 Share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million.

CIBC has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 2 million Series 51 Shares at the same offering price, exercisable at any time up to two days prior to closing. Should the underwriters’ option be fully exercised, the total gross proceeds of the financing will be $300 million.

The Series 51 Shares will yield 5.15% per annum, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, for an initial period ending July 31, 2024. On July 31, 2024, and on July 31 every five years thereafter, the dividend rate will reset to be equal to the then current five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.62%.

Subject to regulatory approval and certain provisions of the Series 51 Shares, on July 31, 2024 and on July 31 every five years thereafter, CIBC may, at its option, redeem all or any part of the then outstanding Series 51 Shares at par.

Subject to the right of redemption, holders of the Series 51 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares Series 52 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 52 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on July 31, 2024 and on July 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 52 Shares will be entitled to receive a quarterly floating rate dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 3.62%.

Holders of the Series 52 Shares may convert their Series 52 Shares into Series 51 Shares, subject to certain conditions, on July 31, 2029 and on July 31 every five years thereafter.

The expected closing date is June 4, 2019. CIBC will make an application to list the Series 51 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of this offering will be used for general purposes of CIBC.

The new issue is somewhat expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_cm_190524
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According to this analysis, the fair price of the new issue is 24.85, but alert Assiduous Readers will have noticed that the Implied Volatility plot is very peculiar, having twp expensive issues and four cheap ones, with the new issue being the sole occupant of No Man’s Land.

The two rich issues are:

The extremely perplexing issue is CM.PR.R, a FixedReset, 4.40%+338, NVCC Compliant issue that commenced trading 2017-6-2 after being announced 2017-5-25. It traded 44,632 shares today in a range of 22.66-80 before closing at 22.72-76.

I confess I don’t know quite what to make of this. It is common – normal, even – for a new issue to remain rich for quite some time, but I am at a loss to explain why CM.PR.S should remain rich after being on the market for sixteen months. CM.PR.R is just silly … but note that its current coupon is low relative to the new issue and it won’t reset until 2022-7-31 … three years, roughly, thirteen coupon payments, but that’s only a total of about $0.60 and doesn’t explain the differential with CM.PR.S anyway.

Fortunately, I don’t have to explain it! All I have to do is avoid buying the new issue and favour other, cheaper, choices for any allocation to CM that I care to make.

New Issues

New Issue: CPX FixedReset, 5.75%+415M575

Capital Power Corporation has announced:

that it will issue 6,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Preference Shares, Series 11 (the “Series 11 Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per Series 11 Share (the “Offering”) for aggregate gross proceeds of $150 million on a bought deal basis with a syndicate of underwriters, co-led by TD Securities Inc. and RBC Capital Markets. In addition, Capital Power has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part anytime up to two business days prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 2,000,000 Series 11 Shares on the same terms, for additional gross proceeds of up to $50 million.

The Series 11 Shares will pay fixed cumulative dividends of $1.4375 per share per annum, yielding 5.75% per annum, payable on the last business day of March, June, September and December of each year, as and when declared by the board of directors of Capital Power, for the initial period ending June 30, 2024. Assuming an issue date of May 16, 2019, the first quarterly dividend of $0.1772 per share is expected to be paid on June 30, 2019 (with actual payment to be made on June 28, 2019, being the last business day of June 2019). The dividend rate will be reset on June 30, 2024 and every five years thereafter at a rate equal to the sum of the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield and 4.15%, provided that, in any event, such rate shall not be less than 5.75%. The Series 11 Shares are redeemable by Capital Power, at its option, on June 30, 2024 and on June 30 of every fifth year thereafter.

Holders of Series 11 Shares will have the right to convert all or any part of their shares into Cumulative Floating Rate Preference Shares, Series 12 (the “Series 12 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on June 30, 2024 and every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 12 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the sum of the then 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 4.15%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Capital Power.

Net proceeds of the offering will be used to repay indebtedness under Capital Power’s credit facilities which will then be available to be redrawn to partially fund the acquisition of Goreway Power Station Holdings Inc. that was previously announced on April 29, 2019 and for general corporate purposes.

S&P Global Ratings has assigned a provisional rating of P-3 for the Series 11 Shares and DBRS Limited has assigned a preliminary rating of Pfd-3 (low) for the Series 11 Shares.

The Series 11 Shares will be issued pursuant to a prospectus supplement to Capital Power’s short form base shelf prospectus dated May 11, 2018. The prospectus supplement will be filed with securities regulatory authorities in all provinces and territories in Canada. The Offering is subject to receipt of all necessary regulatory and stock exchange approvals.

Given that CPX has six FixedReset issues, including this one, of which three have no floor (CPX.PR.A, CPX.PR.C and CPX.PR.E) and three do (CPX.PR.G, CPX.PR.I and this), it is difficult to obtain any meaning from a volatility analysis. However, I will note that CPX.PR.I, a FixedReset, 5.75%+412M575, that commenced trading 2017-8-9 after being announced 2017-7-27, has near-identical terms and closed today at 25.06-10 to yield 5.73%-5.72%, while CPX.PR.A, a FixedReset, 3.06%+217, that commenced trading 2010-12-16 with a 4.60% dividend after being announced 2010-12-1, and reset to 3.06% effective 2015-12-31, is now quoted at 13.76-00 to yield 6.80%-6.66%. I find it very difficult to believe that the dividend floor is worth a full point of yield, even before considering the additional call risk of the new issue.

New Issues

New Issue: Brookfield Infrastructure Subsidiary, FixedReset, 5.85%+396M585

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced (although not yet on their website) (emphasis added):

that it has agreed to issue 4,000,000 Senior Preferred Shares, Series 1 (“Series 1 Shares”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The Series 1 Shares are being issued by BIP Investment Corporation (“BIPIC”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brookfield Infrastructure, and will be fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Brookfield Infrastructure and certain of its key holding subsidiaries. The Series 1 Shares will be issued at a price of $25.00 per share, for gross proceeds of $100,000,000. Holders of the Series 1 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend at a rate of 5.85% annually for the initial period ending March 31, 2024. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.96%, and (ii) 5.85%. The Series 1 Shares are redeemable by BIPIC on or after March 31, 2024.

Holders of the Series 1 Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert their Series 1 Shares into Senior Preferred Shares, Series 2 (the “Series 2 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 2 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 3.96%.

The Series 1 Shares will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to BIPIC’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

The net proceeds of the issue of the Series 1 Shares will be used to fund new investments and/or for general working capital purposes. The offering of Series 1 Shares is expected to close on or about February 5, 2019.

Note the redemption terms, because this is very important. These are not redeemable only on exchange dates, they are redeemable at any time after the first exchange date. This marks a new low in the quality of the swill that gets offered to new issue investors. I do not believe this is a mere typo – though I will be checking the prospectus supplement! – because in the very next sentence the company is careful to say that conversion rights exist “on March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter.”

But, such is the state of investment management in Canada that there will be many who think increased opportunity for calls by the issuers is a good thing, in the charming belief that it’s good to get called out of a position.

S&P further muddies the waters (emphasis added):

S&P Global Ratings today said it assigned its ‘BBB-‘ global scale rating and ‘P-2(Low)’ Canada scale rating to BIP Investment Corp.’s (BIPIC) C$100 million proposed cumulative minimum rate reset senior preferred shares, series 1. The company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering to fund new investments and for general working capital purposes.

We classify the series 1 preferred shares as having minimal equity content because in our view the retraction feature, which gives the investors the option to put the preferred share securities at any time, undermines the
permanence of these securities. Consequently, we will treat 100% of the principal outstanding as debt and will treat 100% of the related dividends on these securities as interest expense in our analysis.

BIPIC is a newly formed subsidiary of Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. (BBB+/Stable/–), which will fully guarantee BIPIC’s series 1 preferred shares.

I’m not quite sure how to interpret this mention of a retraction feature. If the shares are retractible into cash at any time, then that is of course an extremely valuable feature; but if they’re only retractible into debentures, a la PVS Split Share Preferreds, then it’s worth … not so much. And if this is just a stenographical error by S&P, then it’s worth nothing! I’ll wait until the prospectus supplement is available.

The prospectus (available on SEDAR at “BIP Investment Corporation Nov 23 2018 14:13:23 ET Final short form prospectus – English PDF 826 K”, but I’m not allowed to link to it directly because Canadian regulators think you’re scum) states:

The Preference Shares of each series will rank on a parity with the Preference Shares of every other series with respect to accumulated dividends and return of capital. Each series of Preference Shares will participate rateably with every other series of Preference Shares in respect of accumulated dividends and return of capital.

So I think we can assume that distributions will be a mixture of dividends and return of capital – no ordinary income! – although that’s yet another thing I will have to check when the prospectus supplement comes out.

Update, 2019-2-1: The prospectus supplement is now available on SEDAR via a search for “BIP Investment Corporation Jan 29 2019 21:10:15 ET Prospectus (non pricing) supplement – English PDF 882 K”. The regulators won’t allow me to link to it directly, sorry. If you don’t like it, move to the States, where the SEC treats investors as having some importance.

There were three things badly in need of checking.

First, redemption. From page 16 of the PDF:

The Series 1 Shares will not be redeemable by the Corporation prior to March 31, 2024. On March 31, 2024 and on March 31 every five years thereafter (or, if such date is not a business day, the immediately following business day), and subject to the provisions of the BCBCA and certain other restrictions set out in “Description of the Series 1 Shares — Restrictions on Dividends and Retirement and Issue of Shares”, the Corporation may, at its option, on at least 30 days and not more than 60 days prior written notice, redeem all or from time to time any part of the outstanding Series 1 Shares by payment in cash of a per share sum equal to C$25.00, in each case together with all accrued and unpaid dividends up to but excluding the date fixed for redemption (less any tax required to be deducted or withheld by the Corporation).

If less than all of the outstanding Series 1 Shares are to be redeemed, the shares to be redeemed shall be selected on a pro rata basis disregarding fractions or, if such shares are at such time listed on such exchange, with the consent of the TSX, in such manner as the Board of Directors in its sole discretion may, by resolution, determine.

So Assiduous Reader dodoi‘s report of the TDDI description, which was later confirmed by Assiduous Reader prefguy is all correct – and a damn sight better than the execrable press release!

The second thing to check was the retraction terms. From page 16 of the prospectus supplement:

The Series 1 Shares may be surrendered for retraction at any time, subject to the provisions of the BCBCA and certain other restrictions set out in “Description of the Series 1 Shares — Restrictions on Dividends and Retirement and Issue of Shares”. Retraction payments for Series 1 Shares will be made on or before the 15th day of each month (the “Series 1 Retraction Payment Date”) provided the Series 1 Shares have been surrendered for retraction at least five business days (the “Series 1 Deposit Date”) before the last business day of the preceding month. If a holder makes such surrender after 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on a Series 1 Deposit Date, the retraction payment will be made on the next succeeding Series 1 Retraction Payment Date.

The Corporation will enter into a remarketing agreement (the “Series 1 Remarketing Agreement”) with a registered dealer that will provide that the registered dealer will use its commercially reasonable efforts to find purchasers for any Series 1 Shares tendered for retraction at a price that is not less than (after expenses) the Series 1 Retraction Price (as defined herein), provided that a retracting holder has not withheld consent to the sale of such Series 1 Shares. If a purchaser cannot be found pursuant to the terms of the Series 1 Remarketing Agreement or the retracting holder has withheld its consent, the retracting holder will receive, per Series 1 Share retracted, cash in an amount equal to the Series 1 Retraction Price. The “Series 1 Retraction Price” will be equal to the lesser of (i) 95% of the volume weighted average price of the Series 1 Shares on the principal exchange or market on which the Series 1 Shares are listed or quoted for trading for the three business days ending on the applicable Series 1 Deposit Date and (ii) C$23.75 (less any tax required to be deducted or withheld by the Corporation).

So this provision is not quite entirely useless, although it approaches that state. It is possible, albeit not at all probable, that something happens on the Deposit Date that really hurts the fundamentals of the company; holders will then have until 5pm to submit them for retraction at a price which can at least be guessed at (since the VWAP is determined for the three days up to and including the Deposit Date) and, possibly, completely known (for those who are able to instruct their intermediaries between the 4pm market close and the 5pm deadline).

But it’s still basically useless. At best, the retraction price is only 95% of the VWAP – in all but the most contrived circumstances, investors will be better off just selling them on the market.

For this reason, I will be ignoring this provision when specifying the issue on HIMIPref™.

The puzzle is – why include such a useless provision at all? The only publicly stated effect, so far, is that S&P won’t give the issue any equity credit, which is contrary to the company’s interest. It may be ‘some tax thing’ or it might even be a bit of flim-flam, taken with the aim of getting the issue onto lists of retractible issues (it will not appear on HIMIPref™’s list!). There are thousands and thousands of clowns out there who call themselves market professionals and rarely, if ever, do anything more than read the Bloomberg description of issue terms.

So Assiduous Reader prefhound‘s description of the feature taken from Scotia iTrade was correct, and I agree with prefguy‘s succinct “useless” summary.

The third thing to check was the tax status of the distributions. From page 26 of the PDF:

Taxable dividends received on the Shares by a holder will be included in computing the holder’s income.

In the case of a holder that is an individual, taxable dividends will be subject to the gross-up and dividend tax credit rules under the Tax Act normally applicable to taxable dividends received from a taxable Canadian corporation. Such taxable dividends will be eligible for the enhanced gross-up and dividend tax credit if the Corporation designates the taxable dividends as “eligible dividends”. There may be limitations on the Corporation’s ability to designate taxable dividends as eligible dividends.

The amount of any dividend that the Corporation elects to pay from its “capital gains dividend account” (as defined in the Tax Act) (“Capital Gains Dividend”) received by a holder of the Shares from the Corporation will be considered to be a capital gain of such holder from the disposition of capital property in the taxation year of the holder in which the Capital Gains Dividend is received.

I don’t see anything explicit about distributions being treated as a return of capital in the prospectus supplement, but I don’t know of any reason why the company couldn’t designate them as such.

New Issues

New Issue: RY FixedReset, 4.80%+238, NVCC

Royal Bank of Canada has announced (on October 25):

a domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series BO.

Royal Bank of Canada will issue 12 million Preferred Shares Series BO priced at $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $300 million. The bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series BO at the same offering price.

The Preferred Shares Series BO will yield 4.80 per cent annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Royal Bank of Canada, for the initial period ending February 24, 2024. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 2.38 per cent over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Subject to regulatory approval, on or after February 24, 2024, the bank may redeem the Preferred Shares Series BO in whole or in part at par. Holders of Preferred Shares Series BO will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series BP on February 24, 2024 and on February 24 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series BP will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Royal Bank of Canada, at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.38 per cent. Holders of Preferred Shares Series BP will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series BO on February 24, 2029 and on February 24 every five years thereafter.

The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is November 2, 2018.

We routinely undertake funding transactions to maintain strong capital ratios and a cost effective capital structure. Net proceeds from this transaction will be used for general business purposes.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series BO, the size of the offering has been increased to 14 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $350 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The expected closing date is November 2, 2018.

We routinely undertake funding transactions to maintain strong capital ratios and a cost effective capital structure. Net proceeds from this transaction will be used for general business purposes.

Thanks to Assiduous Reader dodoi for pointing out I was late posting this announcement.

The new issue is quite expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_ry_180826
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on October 26 is 23.77.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called. Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue.

New Issues

New Issue: BNS FixedReset 4.85%+243 NVCC

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 40 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 40”).

Scotiabank has agreed to sell 10 million of Preferred Shares Series 40 to a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotia Capital Inc. on a bought deal basis. Scotiabank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part up to 48 hours before closing, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series 40 at the same offering price.

Scotiabank will issue Preferred Shares Series 40 priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank, for the initial period ending on and including January 26, 2024 at an annual rate of $1.2125 per share to yield 4.85% per cent annually.

On January 27, 2024 and on January 27 every five years thereafter, Scotiabank may, at its option, subject to regulatory approval, redeem all or any number of the then outstanding Preferred Shares Series 40 at a redemption price of $25 per share. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 2.43% over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 40 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 41 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 41”) of Scotiabank on January 27, 2024 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series 41 will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.43%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 41 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series 40 on January 27, 2029 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Closing is expected to occur on October 12, 2018. Scotiabank will make an application to list the Preferred Shares Series 40 as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Net proceeds of the offering will be used by Scotiabank to fund a portion of the redemption of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 20 and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 21 announced on September 25, 2018.

The new issue is quite expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_bns_181002
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on October 2 is 23.43. However, it should be noted that the analysis is forced to do some major extrapolation, as the only other BNS FixedReset NVCC-compliant issues are BNS.PR.E, BNS.PR.G and BNS.PR.H, all of which have Issue Reset Spreads in excess of 400bp.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called. Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue.

New Issues

New Issue: BMO FixedReset 4.85%+268, NVCC

Bank of Montreal has announced:

a domestic public offering of $300 million of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class B Preferred Shares Series 44 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 44”). The offering will be underwritten on a bought-deal basis by a syndicate of underwriters led by BMO Capital Markets. The Bank has granted to the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional $100 million of the Preferred Shares Series 44 exercisable at any time up to 48 hours before closing.

The Preferred Shares Series 44 will be issued to the public at a price of $25.00 per share. Holders will be entitled to receive non-cumulative preferential fixed quarterly dividends for the initial period to November 25, 2023, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank, payable in the amount of $0.303125 per share, to yield 4.85 per cent annually.

Subject to regulatory approval, on November 25, 2023 and on November 25 of every fifth year thereafter, the Bank may redeem the Preferred Shares Series 44 in whole or in part at par. On November 25, 2023, the dividend rate will reset and will reset thereafter every five years to be equal to the 5-Year Government of Canada Bond Yield plus 2.68 per cent. Subject to certain conditions, holders may elect to convert any or all of their Preferred Shares Series 44 into an equal number of Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Class B Preferred Shares Series 45 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (“Preferred Shares Series 45”) on November 25, 2023, and on November 25 of every fifth year thereafter. Holders of the Preferred Shares Series 45 will be entitled to receive non-cumulative preferential floating rate quarterly dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank, equal to the then 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill Yield plus 2.68 per cent. Subject to certain conditions, holders may elect to convert any or all of their Preferred Shares Series 45 into an equal number of Preferred Shares Series 44 on November 25, 2028, and on November 25 of every fifth year thereafter.

The anticipated closing date is September 17, 2018. The net proceeds from the offering will be used by the Bank for general banking purposes.

The new issue is quite expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_bmo_180906
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on September 6 is 24.22.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called.

Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue. For instance, BMO.PR.D, FixedReset, 4.40%+317, is bid at 25.13 (theoretical fair value of 25.33, according to the above analysis, which ignores the interim dividend shortfall). You’re giving up about $0.10 p.a. in dividends until it resets 2022-8-25, sure, but you’re getting a significant amount of protection in the event of a market downturn, and more dividend afterwards. Is it worth it? Well, that will depend a lot on your aversion to loss … I’m just saying that buying the same amount of protection costs more in most other series of FixedResets.

New Issues

New Issue: BIP FixedReset, 5.10%+292M510

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced:

that it has agreed to issue 8,000,000 Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 11 (“Series 11 Preferred Units”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotiabank, BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities Inc. The Series 11 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $200,000,000. Holders of the Series 11 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution at a rate of 5.10% annually for the initial period ending December 31, 2023. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.92%, and (ii) 5.10%. The Series 11 Preferred Units are redeemable on or after December 31, 2023.

Holders of the Series 11 Preferred Units will have the right, at their option, to reclassify their Series 11 Preferred Units into Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 12 (“Series 12 Preferred Units”), subject to certain conditions, on December 31, 2023 and on December 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 12 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating distribution at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 2.92%.

Brookfield Infrastructure has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable until 48 hours prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 2,000,000 Series 11 Preferred Units which, if exercised, would increase the gross offering size to $250,000,000.

The Series 11 Preferred Units will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to Brookfield Infrastructure’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

Brookfield Infrastructure intends to use the net proceeds of the issue of the Series 11 Preferred Units to fund an active pipeline of new investment opportunities and a growing backlog of committed organic growth capital expenditure projects, and for general working capital purposes. The offering of Series 11 Preferred Units is expected to close on or about September 12, 2018.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced offering, the underwriters have exercised their option to increase the size of the offering to 10,000,000 Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 11 (“Series 11 Preferred Units”). The Series 11 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $250,000,000. The Series 11 Preferred Units are being offered for distribution to the public on a bought deal basis by a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotiabank, BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities Inc.

The Series 11 Preferred Units will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to Brookfield Infrastructure’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

Brookfield Infrastructure intends to use the net proceeds of the issue of the Series 11 Preferred Units to fund an active pipeline of new investment opportunities and a growing backlog of committed organic growth capital expenditure projects, and for general working capital purposes. The offering of Series 11 Preferred Units is expected to close on or about September 12, 2018.

There are two non-standard elements to this issue. First, distributions are not dividends: they are Return of Capital and (potentially fully taxable) other things (commentary from my commentary regarding the announcement of BIP.PR.D:

I understand that the Return of Capital percentage of distributions is forecast – but by no means guaranteed! – to be about 50% over the next five years. See the discussion of BIP.PR.A for some sample calculations regarding the implications of this.

Second, it is likely, although not certain, that conversion of this issue into a FloatingReset when the time comes may be a Deemed Disposition and therefore trigger a capital gain or loss (commentary taken from my discussion of BIP.PR.D’s closing):

Update, 2017-10-11: Note that according to the prospectus, available on SEDAR under “Brookfield Infrastructure Partners L.P. Jan 19 2017 19:48:49 ET Prospectus (non pricing) supplement – English PDF 525 K”:

The reclassification of a Series 7 Preferred Unit into a Series 8 Preferred Unit or a Series 8 Preferred Unit into a Series 7 Preferred Unit, whether pursuant to an election made by the Resident Holder or pursuant to an automatic reclassification, may be considered to be a disposition of the Series 7 Preferred Unit or Series 8 Preferred Unit by the Resident Holder. The CRA’s position is that the conversion of an interest in a partnership into another interest in the partnership may result in a disposition of the partnership interest by the holder if the conversion results in a significant change in the rights and obligations of the holder in respect of the converted interest, including a significant change in the percentage interest in the profits of the partnership. Whether or not the reclassification of Series 7 Preferred Units into Series 8 Preferred Units or Series 8 Preferred Units into Series 7 Preferred Units would result in a significant change in the percentage interest of a Resident Holder in the profits of the Partnership is a question of fact that depends upon the facts and circumstances that exist at the time of the reclassification.

The new issue is extremely expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_bip_180905
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on September 5 is 23.41.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called.

Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue. For instance, BIP.PR.D, FixedReset, 5.00%+378M500, ROC + Interest, is bid at 25.08 (theoretical fair value of 25.33, according to the above analysis, which ignores the interim dividend shortfall). You’re giving up about $0.025 p.a. in dividends until it resets 2022-03-31, sure, but that’s hardly a big deal and you’re getting a significant amount of protection in the event of a market downturn, and a bit more dividend afterwards. Is it worth it? Well, that will depend a lot on your aversion to loss … I’m just saying that buying the same amount of protection costs more in most other series of FixedResets.

New Issues

New Issue : TD FixedReset, 4.75%+259

As noted by Assiduous Reader FletcherLynd, The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 20 (the “Series 20 Shares”).

TD has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc. to issue, on a bought deal basis, 10 million Series 20 Shares at a price of $25.00 per share to raise gross proceeds of $250 million. TD has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 20 Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing.

The Series 20 Shares will yield 4.75% annually, with dividends payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, for the initial period ending October 31, 2023. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 2.59% over the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Subject to regulatory approval, on October 31, 2023 and on October 31 every 5 years thereafter, TD may redeem the Series 20 Shares, in whole or in part, at $25.00 per share. Subject to TD’s right of redemption and certain other conditions, holders of the Series 20 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares (NVCC), Series 21 (the “Series 21 Shares”), on October 31, 2023, and on October 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 21 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.59%.

The expected closing date is September 13, 2018. TD will make an application to list the Series 20 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)), Series 20 (the “Series 20 Shares”), the size of the offering has been increased to 16 million Series 20 Shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $400 million. The offering will be underwritten by a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc.

The expected closing date is September 13, 2018. TD will make an application to list the Series 20 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

The new issue is quite expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_td_180904
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on September 4 is 24.38.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called.

Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue. For instance, TD.PF.E, FixedReset, 3.70%+287, is bid at 24.92 (theoretical fair value of 25.06, according to the above analysis, which ignores the interim dividend shortfall). You’re giving up about $0.25 p.a. in dividends until it resets 2020-10-31, sure, but you’re getting a significant amount of protection in the event of a market downturn, and a bit more dividend afterwards. Is it worth it? Well, that will depend a lot on your aversion to loss … I’m just saying that buying the same amount of protection costs more in most other series of FixedResets.

New Issues

New Issue: NA FixedReset, 4.95%+277, NVCC

National Bank of Canada has announced (on May 31):

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by National Bank Financial Inc. for the issuance on a bought deal basis of 10 million non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 42 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 42 Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $250 million.

National Bank has granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 42 Preferred Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing. The gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $300 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series 42 Preferred Shares will yield 4.95% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, for the initial period ending November 15, 2023. The first of such dividends, if declared, shall be payable on November 15, 2018. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 277 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Subject to regulatory approval, National Bank may redeem the Series 42 Preferred Shares in whole or in part at par on November 15, 2023 and on November 15 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Series 42 Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of non-cumulative floating rate first preferred shares series 43 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 43 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on November 15, 2023, and on November 15 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 43 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 277 basis points.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and added to National Bank’s capital base. The expected closing date is on or about June 11, 2018. National Bank intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its November 21, 2016 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 42 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 42 Preferred Shares”), the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase an additional 2,000,000 Series 42 Preferred Shares. The size of the offering has been increased to 12 million shares for gross proceeds of $300 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is on or about June 11, 2018.

The new issue is ridiculously expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_na_180601
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According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on June 1 is 23.91.

New Issues

New Issue: Global Dividend Growth Split Corp., 5%, 3-Year

Global Dividend Growth Split Corp, which commenced marketing in late April has released its final prospectus on SEDAR (as usual, the Canadian Securities Administrators will not allow me to link to this public document. Search for “Global Dividend Growth Split Corp. May 23 2018 22:26:01 ET Final long form prospectus – English PDF 832 K”)”):

The investment objectives for the Preferred Shares are to provide their holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash
distributions and to return the original issue price of $10.00 to holders on June 30, 2021 (the ‘‘Maturity Date’’), subject to extension for successive terms of up to five years as determined by the board of directors of the Company. See ‘‘Investment Objectives’’. The quarterly cash distribution will be $0.1250 per Preferred Share ($0.50 per annum or 5.0% per annum) on the issue price of $10.00 per Preferred Share until June 30, 2021. See ‘‘Distribution Policy’’.

Closing of the Offering is expected to occur on or about June 15, 2018, but no later than 90 days after a receipt for this prospectus has been issued (the ‘‘Closing Date’’).

No distributions will be paid on the Class A Shares if (i) the distributions payable on the Preferred Shares are in arrears, or (ii) in respect of a cash distribution by the Company, the NAV per Unit would be less than $15.00.

Assuming that the gross proceeds of the Offering are $75 million and fees and expenses are as presented in this prospectus, in order to achieve the Company’s targeted annual distributions for the Class A Shares and the Preferred Shares while maintaining a stable NAV per Unit, the Company will be required to generate an average annual total return (comprised of net realized capital gains, option premiums and dividends) on the Portfolio of approximately 9.2%. The Portfolio currently generates dividend income of 3.2% per annum net of withholding taxes and would be required to generate an additional 6.1% per annum from other sources to return and distribute such amounts.

The Preferred Shares will be redeemed by the Company on the Maturity Date. The redemption price payable by the Company for a Preferred Share on that date will be equal to the lesser of (i) $10.00 plus any accrued and unpaid distributions thereon and (ii) the NAV of the Company on that date divided by the total number of Preferred Shares then outstanding.

Holders of Preferred Shares whose Preferred Shares are surrendered for [monthly] retraction will be entitled to receive a retraction price per Preferred Share (the “Preferred Share Retraction Price”) equal to 96% of the lesser of (i) the Net Asset Value per Unit determined as of such Retraction Date, less the cost to the Company of the purchase of a Class A Share for cancellation; and (ii) $10.00.

There is also a press release (link address adjusted 2018-6-15).

Those familiar with Split Share Credit Quality will recognize that the computed return of 9.2% required to meet the portfolio objectives is highly optimistic. The significant cash drag on the portfolio introduces material sequence of return risk and the long-term results will be highly dependent upon the variation of returns as well as their time-weighted average value.

And some will remember my views on Split Share Capital Units … although some will point out that special circumstances can alter cases.