BAM Spends $2.3-Billion at the Mall

February 24th, 2010

General Growth Properties, Inc. has announced:

that it has reached an agreement in principle with Brookfield Asset Management Inc., one of the world’s largest real estate investors and asset managers, to invest in a proposed recapitalization of GGP at a plan value of $15.00 per share and provide par plus accrued interest to unsecured creditors. The $2.625 billion proposed equity commitment from Brookfield is not subject to due diligence or any financing condition and is expected to create a floor value for the purpose of raising additional equity for the company. The plan is subject to definitive documentation, approval of the Bankruptcy Court and higher and better offers pursuant to a bidding process to be approved by the Bankruptcy Court.

The complete term sheet for the proposed plan with Brookfield is available on GGP’s website at www.ggp.com/company/Default.aspx?id=97.

The proposed plan is designed to maximize value for all GGP stakeholders and enable a restructured GGP to emerge from bankruptcy on a standalone basis with a diverse portfolio of high-quality income-producing assets, strong cash flow and a solid balance sheet capitalized principally with long-term non-recourse debt.

Under the terms of the proposed plan:

  • GGP’s existing shareholders will receive one share of new GGP common stock with an initial value of $10.00 per share, plus one share of General Growth Opportunities (“GGO”) with an initial value of $5.00 per share, for total consideration of $15.00 per share (see description of GGO below under “Terms of the Brookfield Investment and Proposed Recapitalization”)
  • Unsecured creditors will receive par plus accrued interest
  • Brookfield will invest $2.5 billion at $10.00 per share for new GGP common stock and up to $125 million at $5.00 per share for GGO common stock


Under the terms of the proposal, Brookfield will invest $2.5 billion in cash in GGP in exchange for GGP common stock, thereby providing sufficient liquidity to fund GGP’s bankruptcy emergence needs. Brookfield will own approximately 30 percent of GGP and have the right to nominate three directors. This cornerstone investment will provide the flexibility for GGP to pursue additional capital-raising alternatives up to a total of $5.8 billion, including the issuance of new equity, asset sales and limited new debt issuance. Brookfield has agreed to assist GGP in raising the balance of this capital using its relationships with global institutional capital sources. As part of the restructuring, GGP intends to distribute to GGP shareholders shares in GGO, a new company that will own certain non-core assets, such as all of the company’s master planned communities and landmark developments like South Street Seaport and others. A shareholder must be invested in GGP prior to the recapitalization in order to receive a dividend of GGO. These assets produce little or no current income but have the potential for significant long-term value. GGO plans to raise $250 million through a rights offering at $5.00 per share, with Brookfield backstopping $125 million of such offering.

As consideration for acting as “stalking horse” in the company’s process to raise capital, Brookfield will be granted seven-year warrants to purchase 60 million shares of existing GGP common stock at an exercise price of $15.00 per share. The warrants are intended to provide compensation to Brookfield for its financial commitment. Brookfield will not receive any other consideration or bid protection, including any break-up fee, expense reimbursement, commitment fee, underwriting discount or any other fees.

In my view, GGP deserved to go bankrupt, by the way. The website is in the “Techno-weenies go wild!” style, with little evidence of adult supervision. I guess the executives are all “big picture” guys.

The Globe & Mail reports:

Until the warrants are approved by a U.S. bankruptcy court, Brookfield has struck an unusual side deal with General Growth shareholder and noted US shareholder activist Bill Ackman. Until a bankruptcy court judge approves General Growth’s warrant offer with Brookfield, Mr. Ackman’s company Pershing Square Capital Management has agreed to provide interim protection. If Brookfield’s offer fails or is bested by another bidder, Pershing has agreed to pay Brookfield 25 per cent of its profits on any offer that exceeds $12.75 for each General Growth share.

Brookfield released acceptable 4Q09 Results on February 19, while stating that they were seriously looking for acquisitions.

Anyway, this has important implications for BAM’s credit rating. Where’s all this money going to come from? When DBRS confirmed their ratings in December, they stated:

Overall, DBRS remains concerned about Brookfield’s aggressive expansion program in these difficult market conditions, while some of its portfolios have come under pressure. Examples include (i) the $1 billion in capital allocated to a $5 billion Brookfield-managed consortium that will make large, opportunistic purchases of distressed real estate with good long-term prospects and (ii) the $1.1 billion restructuring of Babcock & Brown Infrastructure, in which the Company invested approximately $400 million. With these plans, the consolidated balance sheet (book value) is expected to well exceed the current $60 billion level (with 64% leverage).

Brookfield counters that the diversity of the investments, the use of investing partners, and non-recourse debt mitigates the risks to the Company at the corporate level. In fact, Brookfield’s share of assets on its deconsolidated balance sheet amounts to about $12 billion (with 27% leverage). In DBRS’s view, the Company’s mitigating arguments on how it scales investments are valid up to a point. However, there are limits after which the credit risks of growth exceed the growth of the consolidated balance sheet. Two byproducts of this strategy are the growing interest costs that have first claim on the related cash flow at the operating level and the growing refinancing risk for non-recourse borrowings (subsidiary and property-specific). Going forward, it is reasonable to consider that a large expansion program could very well have credit implications for Brookfield at the corporate level. In short, large transactions have the potential to negatively affect the Company’s credit ratings at the outset.

Stay tuned!

Update: DBRS comments:

Brookfield and the Consortium intend to hold the proposed investment rather than Brookfield Properties, which invests primarily in office properties. As noted in an earlier report, DBRS recognizes Brookfield’s strategy to make opportunistic investments in distressed assets, so long as it does not stress its balance sheet or liquidity. This investment appears to fit with the criteria Brookfield has set out previously.

Hence, DBRS views this plan as neutral to Brookfield’s ratings providing: (i) it enlists other co-investors to support and fund the plan, (ii) the cost of the investment remains at these levels, (iii) the remaining debt and any new debt at GGP is non-recourse to Brookfield and (iv) it maintains sufficient liquidity at the corporate level while completing the plan. At the end of Q3 2009, Brookfield had over $600 million in cash and financial assets on hand, as well as bank lines at the corporate level, plus access to ongoing cash flow and other forms of liquidity within the group.

Update, 2010-4-1: DBRS has concluded that the binding agreement subsequently negotiated is also neutral to credit.

February 23, 2010

February 23rd, 2010

Econbrowser‘s Menzie Chinn has written an interesting piece on ‘crowding out’:

A relevant question, is what happens when the Fed exits from quantitative easing (and relatedly, as slack in the economy declines). That being said, extreme upward pressure on interest rates, and reduction in investment expenditures, is not a foregone conclusion.

Crowding out has a strong hold on many people’s imagination. Some equate crowding out in the financial market with crowding out in the real side of the economy. Let me make a couple observations on why this simplistic equation need not hold.

First, the empirical magnitude of investment crowding out depends critically on the interest sensitivity of investment expenditures.

Second, if investment depends upon the change in GDP, as in a simple accelerator model (see a discussion of competing investment models here), then government spending that induces an increase in GDP can result in higher investment, despite an increase in interest rates.

Third, when one assumes three (or more) outside assets instead of two, then money and bonds are not necessarily substitutes. Benjamin Friedman laid out a model with money, bonds and equities/capital. Depending upon whether bonds are closer substitutes with capital or money, one can obtain crowding out or crowding in (see this powerpoint presentation).

I teach crowding out in the context of the IS-LM model. For those who want to work in the loanable funds framework, see DeLong, and Krugman.

Boyd Erman had a good column in the Globe & Mail today – Want to fix Ottawa’s books? Try working a bit harder. He starts off with the demographic problem – which Spend Every Penny considers “academic” – and ties it into lower Canadian productivity growth compared to the US:

It can’t be that Americans are more talented in almost every industry. Some of it has to come down to effort, to how hard Canadians squeeze their lemons, with all due respect to our self-image as a nation of sloggers.

A portion of the gap also seems to come down to risk taking. Americans will try new and novel ways to get at the last bit of juice in the lemon, even if there’s a chance it will fail, while Canadians default to the tried and true even if it’s less promising.

This is certainly true in the securities business. Imagine you work in New York as, say, an institutional bond salesman. You come up with a good idea for a new product or a new way of doing things or you want to provide one of your clients with a non-standard service … anything like that. So you go to your boss, tell him about it – and if it doesn’t take too much capital, he can approve it himself. If it takes more capital, there’s a clear path for approval and people are willing to work quickly because if the idea works they’re going to make some money too. And the deal is: if it works, you’re going to get rich. If it doesn’t work, you’re going to get fired. Wanna bet?

In Canada, I can tell you from personal experience that the environment for new products and new ideas is actively hostile. Each of the myriad approvals is granted by somebody who will be criticized if it fails, and not get anything if it works. There’s no clear path for approvals of anything, largely because management gets to be management by sucking arse and waiting for their boss to die. And, if by some miracle a new process gets off the ground and makes hundreds of millions of dollars for the firm … you’ll get your reputation blackened and get fired.

Retail stores work the same way, I believe. There is often criticism of the US on the grounds that it is “over-stored”, with too many stores chasing too few consumer dollars. But behind every one of these struggling stores – now going bankrupt by the boatload, just as in every recession – is somebody with an idea and a willingness to roll the dice with his capital while working sixteen hours a day.

I remember one anecdote along those lines; I can’t remember the non-American country, so I’ll call it Yougaria: A Yougarian looks at the rich folks’ mansions and feels bitter – because he knows in his heart that those mansions are built on his back. An American looks at the rich folks’ mansions and feels good – because he knows in his heart that one day he’ll be able to afford one just like it.

One of my favourite economists, Ken Rogoff (he’s a grandmaster at chess), had some interesting things to say about sovereign defaults:

Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo yesterday. “I predict we will again.”

The U.S. is likely to tighten monetary policy before cutting government spending, sending “shockwaves” through financial markets, Rogoff said in an interview after the speech. Fiscal policy won’t be curbed until soaring bond yields trigger “very painful” tax increases and spending cuts, he said.

Another day of volume-good-results-bad as PerpetualDiscounts lost 15bp and FixedResets were flat. The day was enlivened by the GWO.PR.E call for redemption and the very expensive new issue of a 5.80% Straight by GWO.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.81 % 3.03 % 32,560 20.38 1 0.3495 % 1,962.1
FixedFloater 5.38 % 3.48 % 43,198 19.61 1 0.4475 % 2,936.7
Floater 1.96 % 1.68 % 43,435 23.36 4 0.5621 % 2,349.7
OpRet 4.87 % 1.30 % 102,111 0.26 13 -0.0683 % 2,309.2
SplitShare 6.35 % -1.43 % 127,654 0.08 2 0.1534 % 2,150.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0683 % 2,111.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.76 % 5.55 % 81,374 5.89 7 -0.0170 % 1,898.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.86 % 5.91 % 168,066 14.04 69 -0.1537 % 1,800.6
FixedReset 5.41 % 3.57 % 318,692 3.75 42 -0.0035 % 2,187.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PR.O Perpetual-Discount -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-23
Maturity Price : 21.59
Evaluated at bid price : 21.59
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
SLF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-23
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-23
Maturity Price : 17.15
Evaluated at bid price : 17.15
Bid-YTW : 2.31 %
BAM.PR.O OpRet 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 4.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 54,093 TD crossed 35,000 at 17.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-23
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 46,384 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.08
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 44,400 RBC crossed 39,100 at 27.88.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.88
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 35,607 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.87
Bid-YTW : 3.49 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 32,632 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-23
Maturity Price : 20.21
Evaluated at bid price : 20.21
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
BAM.PR.H OpRet 31,554 RBC crossed 19,300 at 26.01.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-03-25
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 26.02
Bid-YTW : -8.70 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

New Issue: GWO 5.80% Straight

February 23rd, 2010

Great-West Lifeco has announced that it:

has today entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotia Capital under which the underwriters have agreed to buy, on a bought deal basis, 6,000,000 Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares, Series M (the “Series M Shares”) from Lifeco for sale to the public at a price of $25.00 per Series M Share, representing aggregate gross proceeds of $150 million.

Lifeco has granted the underwriters an underwriters’ option to purchase an additional 2,000,000 Series M Shares at the same offering price. Should the underwriters’ option be fully exercised, the total gross proceeds of the Series M Shares offering will be $200 million.

The Series M Shares will yield 5.80% per annum, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Company. The Series M Shares will not be redeemable prior to March 31, 2015. On or after March 31, 2015, the Company may, on not less than 30 nor more than 60 days’ notice, redeem the Series M Shares in whole or in part, at the Company’s option, by the payment in cash of $26.00 per Series M Share if redeemed prior to March 31, 2016, of $25.75 per Series M Share if redeemed on or after March 31, 2016 but prior to March 31, 2017, of $25.50 per Series M Share if redeemed on or after March 31, 2017 but prior to March 31, 2018, of $25.25 per Series M Share if redeemed on or after March 31, 2018 but prior to March 31, 2019 and of $25.00 per Series M Share if redeemed on or after March 31, 2019, in each case together with all declared and unpaid dividends up to but excluding the date fixed for redemption.

The dealers are falling all over themselves in their haste to sell this one! One notification I’ve seen says it’s a Reset, while another insists that the issuer is GWL!

More, with comparables, later.

Later: Comparables are:

GWO PerpetualDiscount Comparables
Ticker Dividend Quote Bid YTW
GWO.PR.I 1.125 19.05-14 6.01%
GWO.PR.H 1.2125 20.55-75 6.01%
GWO.PR.G 1.30 21.76-84 6.08%
GWO.PR.L 1.4125 23.93-99 6.00%
GWO.PR.? 1.45 25.00
Issue
Price
5.82%
GWO.PR.F 1.475 24.82-89 6.04%

Assiduous Readers of PrefBlog & PrefLetter will note that not only is the yield on the new issue way below comparables, but that there is no allowance at all for Implied Volatility of the embedded short call. There are two classes of investor who will buy this issue: those desperate to invest a large sum of money with no effort and only one ticket; and morons.

The financial guys in the Power Group are well known for cutting their preferred share issue yields to the bone without worrying over-much as to the post-issue trading price of the shares. I believe – although this is wholly conjecture – that they have figured out that a 3% underwriting commission is pretty rich and demand some of that money back by way of lower issue yields when telling the underwriters on what terms they’ll sell the issue if they ever want to see any Power Group business again.

Remember! The smiley-boys will compete on lunches; they will compete on dinners; they will compete on entertainment; they will compete on number of old school buddies given jobs as relationship managers; they will compete on just about anything but price. The 3% commission is holy!

Even with that in mind, though, this issue is very expensive. If it were to trade at a price of 24.25 (representing the net cost after commission recovery to the bought-deal buyers), it would STILL be yielding less than 6%.

GWO.PR.E Called for Redemption

February 23rd, 2010

Great-West Lifeco has announced:

that it intends to redeem all 7,938,500 of its outstanding 4.70% Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares, Series D (the “Series D Shares”) on March 31, 2010. The redemption price will be $25.25 for each Series D Share plus an amount equal to all declared and unpaid dividends, net of any tax required to be withheld by the Company. A notice of redemption of the Series D Shares will be sent in accordance with the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions attached to the Series D Shares.

GWO.PR.E was last mentioned on PrefBlog in the post GWO.PR.E / GWO.PR.X Issuer Bid Update, which in turn has been mentioned every time somebody asks me about buy-backs (for instance, Repurchase of Preferred Shares by Issuer and Potential for Buy-backs and Unscheduled Exchanges).

There’s another issue gone from the rapidly dwindling HIMIPref™ OperatingRetractible index!

February 22, 2010

February 22nd, 2010

The municipal bond insurance business looks sick:

Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second biggest bond insurer, faces as much as $1.2 billion in claims if a judge in Nevada allows Las Vegas Monorail Co., which runs a train connecting the city’s casinos, to reorganize in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The City Council of Pennsylvania’s state capital shelved a plan to sell taxpayer-owned assets to meet payments on $288 million of debt used for an incinerator funded in part with bonds insured by a unit of Bermuda-based Assured Guaranty Ltd. Harrisburg is weighing a possible bankruptcy filing.

Last year, 183 tax-exempt issuers defaulted on $6.35 billion of securities, according to Miami Lakes, Florida-based Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter. That’s up from 2008, when 162 municipal borrowers failed to meet obligations on $8.15 billion of debt. In 2007, 31 of them defaulted on $348 million of bonds.

The timing of the UK Government disposition of its shares in banks is becoming a political issue:

David Cameron’s opposition Conservatives pledged to sell U.K. government stakes in Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc to voters as their support continued to slip in opinion polls.

The plan to sell shares at a discounted price, outlined by Conservative Treasury spokesman George Osborne, comes as voters move away from the party after it called for spending cuts to start this year to reduce the budget deficit. A poll by YouGov Plc in the Sunday Times newspaper showed the Conservative lead over Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party at its narrowest since December 2008.

Business Secretary Peter Mandelson dismissed the proposal in an interview with BBC Television as a “silly little gimmick,” saying retail investors already can buy shares at a “knock-down price.”

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling says the government will only sell its stakes in the banks when the shares have recovered enough to make a profit for taxpayers. Neither party has committed itself to a timetable for disposal.

Mind you, the British government is run by a pack of schoolkids:

Staff working directly for U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown contacted a telephone helpline that offers advice for people who say they have been bullied in the workplace, the BBC reported, adding to reports that he mistreated staff.

Who’s more contemptible? I’ll say the guy who is so insecure that he wants crybabies on staff, myself.

It is with a heavy heart that I report that Judge Rakoff has reluctantly approved a revised BofA / SEC settlement:

Bank of America Corp., the largest U.S. bank, won court approval of a $150 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission over alleged misstatements about the purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co.

U.S. District Judge Jed S. Rakoff in New York said today he “reluctantly” approved the settlement of two suits in which the agency accused the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank of misleading investors following the announcement that it would acquire Merrill Lynch. He criticized the accord as “half-baked justice at best” and “inadequate and misguided,” while adding that the law compels him to defer to regulators seeking approval.

No admission of guilt, no proof of guilt, no arguments for, no arguments against, nobody’s losing their license, nobody’s barred from being directors or officers. Just another case of regulatory extortion, with so-called justice being administered by bureaucrates behind closed doors. I liked the first plan better.

Volume picked up somewhat on a rough day for the market in which PerpetualDiscounts lost 20bp and FixedResets were down 3bp. All of the gainers with noteworthy performances were various flavours of floating rate issue.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 2.82 % 3.07 % 31,700 20.38 1 1.4177 % 1,955.2
FixedFloater 5.41 % 3.50 % 42,729 19.58 1 0.4998 % 2,923.6
Floater 1.97 % 1.69 % 43,732 23.33 4 1.1371 % 2,336.6
OpRet 4.87 % 1.13 % 105,074 0.18 13 -0.2083 % 2,310.8
SplitShare 6.36 % -3.95 % 129,541 0.08 2 -0.2187 % 2,147.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2083 % 2,113.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.76 % 5.55 % 82,332 5.90 7 -0.0904 % 1,898.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.86 % 5.88 % 169,619 14.06 69 -0.1974 % 1,803.4
FixedReset 5.41 % 3.56 % 309,834 3.75 42 -0.0316 % 2,187.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.04
Evaluated at bid price : 19.04
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
BAM.PR.O OpRet -1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Option Certainty
Maturity Date : 2013-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.27
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.63
Evaluated at bid price : 19.63
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
PWF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.78
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 1.69 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 16.95
Evaluated at bid price : 16.95
Bid-YTW : 2.34 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet 1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 22.19
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 3.07 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 2.33 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ACO.PR.A OpRet 414,091 Called for redemption. Nesbitt crossed 400,000 at 25.63.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2010-03-24
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.55
Bid-YTW : 1.94 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 120,515 RBC crossed blocks of 40,000 and 70,000, both at 27.88.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.88
Bid-YTW : 3.54 %
BMO.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 54,957 TD crossed 10,000 at 20.35 and 19,300 at 20.36.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
TD.PR.G FixedReset 41,413 TD crossed 31,000 at 27.92.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 27.89
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
BNS.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 33,765 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 20.15
Evaluated at bid price : 20.15
Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 28,734 Nesbitt crossed 20,000 at 19.66.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2040-02-22
Maturity Price : 19.63
Evaluated at bid price : 19.63
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

NY Fed Research on Financial Amplification and Liquidity Supply

February 22nd, 2010

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has released a Staff Report by Asani Sarkar and Jeffrey Shrader titled Financial Amplification Mechanisms and the Federal Reserve’s Supply of Liquidity during the Crisis:

The small decline in the value of mortgage-related assets relative to the large total losses associated with the financial crisis suggests the presence of financial amplification mechanisms, which allow relatively small shocks to propagate through the financial system. We review the literature on financial amplification mechanisms and discuss the Federal Reserve’s interventions during different stages of the crisis in light of this literature. We interpret the Fed’s early-stage liquidity programs as working to dampen balance sheet amplifications arising from the positive feedback between financial constraints and asset prices. By comparison, the Fed’s later-stage crisis programs take into account adverse-selection amplifications that operate via increases in credit risk and the externality imposed by risky borrowers on safe ones. Finally, we provide new empirical evidence that increases in the Federal Reserve’s liquidity supply reduce interest rates during periods of high liquidity risk. Our analysis has implications for the impact on market prices of a potential withdrawal of liquidity supply by the Fed.

Of interest is the first sentence in the introduction:

One of the primary questions related to the recent financial crisis is how losses on subprime mortgage assets of roughly $500 billion led to rapid and deep drops in both the value of a wide range of other financial assets and, increasingly, real economic output.

Footnote: Acharya and Richardson (2009), Adrian and Shin (2009), Brunnermeier (2009), Gorton (2008) and Blanchard (2009), among others, describe the genesis of the crisis and provide explanations for how it was propagated

It is unfortunate that the authors do not provide more specific support for the $500-billion figure – this has been a topic of interest since the first figure of Greenlaw of $400-billion and much lower ultimate losses projected by the BoE and others.

There’s some discussion of interest to players in illiquid markets:

Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009) examine the relationship between margin conditions and market illiquidity. In their model, customers with offsetting demand shocks arrive sequentially to the market. Speculators smooth the temporal order imbalance and thereby provide liquidity. They borrow using collateral from financiers who set margins (defined as the difference between the security’s price and its collateral value) to control their value-at-risk (VaR). Financiers can reset margins every period and so speculators face funding liquidity risk from the risk of higher margins or losses on existing positions. A margin spiral occurs as follows. Suppose markets are initially highly illiquid and margins are increasing in market illiquidity. There is no default risk in balance sheet models as loans are fully collaterized. A funding shock to the speculator lowers market liquidity and results in higher margins which causes speculators to delever, further tightening their funding constraints. Therefore, market liquidity falls even further.

The authors review the Fed’s programmes for liquidity provision and declare:

To understand the intent behind these programs, we examine amplification mechanisms based on asymmetric information between borrowers and lenders. In contrast to the balance sheet amplifiers, the focus here is on the role of credit risk and the distribution of credit risk across borrowers. The papers surveyed below find a role for central bank intervention when adverse selection problems lead to market breakdowns. However, they also raise concerns that public liquidity provision might crowd out private liquidity.

The authors conclude, in part:

We find that an increase in supply of funds by the Fed is associated with a reduction in interest rate spreads early in the crisis. During more recent periods, the Fed has been gradually withdrawing funds from some of its programs. We find that these actions have had no significant impact on interest rate spreads in the most recent period. Our results suggest that changes in the Fed’s liquidity supply might be asymmetrically related to change in the LIBOR-OIS spread: increases in supply tend to be associated with decreases in the spread but decreases in supply have a more variable relationship. These results indicate that the potential withdrawal of liquidity by the Fed is unlikely to have an adverse impact on market prices.

Moody's Slashes Bank Preferred Ratings

February 22nd, 2010

Moody’s Investors Service has announced that it has:

downgraded its ratings on certain Canadian bank hybrid securities, in line with its revised Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrids and Subordinated Debt published in November 2009. Moody’s downgraded the Canadian banks’ non-cumulative perpetual preferred securities and Innovative Tier 1 and Tier 2A Instruments, with the exception of the Bank of Montreal’s (BMO’s), for which the downgrade occurred in a previous rating action. This concludes the review for possible downgrade that began on November 19, 2009. All other ratings and outlooks for the Canadian banks and their subsidiaries remain unchanged.

Prior to the global financial crisis, Moody’s had incorporated into its ratings an assumption that support provided by national governments and central banks to shore up a troubled bank would, to some extent, benefit the holders of bank subordinated capital as well as the senior creditors. The systemic support for these instruments has not been forthcoming in many cases. The revised methodology largely removes previous assumptions of systemic support, resulting in today’s rating action. In addition, the revised methodology generally widens the notching on a bank hybrid’s rating that is based on the instrument’s features.

The starting point in Moody’s revised approach to rating hybrid securities is the Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment (Adjusted BCA). The Adjusted BCA reflects the bank’s standalone credit strength, including parental and/or cooperative support, if applicable. The Adjusted BCA excludes systemic support. Moody’s rating action removes systemic support from Canadian bank hybrids and, where applicable, adds an additional rating notch for those instruments with non-cumulative coupon payments.

RBC’s non-cumulative, perpetual preferred shares were downgraded to A2 from Aa2. These securities have a preferred claim in liquidation and their coupon payments are non-cumulative. Two notches of the downgrade reflect the removal of systemic support, while Moody’s added an additional notch to the downgrade to reflect the non-cumulative coupon payments. Thus, per Moody’s revised methodology for bank hybrids, the rating for these securities is three notches lower than the Adjusted BCA.

TD’s non-cumulative, perpetual preferred shares were downgraded to A2 from Aa2. Please see the RBC section (non-cumulative preferred shares) for the rationale.

Scotiabank’s non-cumulative, perpetual preferred shares were downgraded to A3 from Aa3. Please see the RBC section for the rationale.

NBC’s non-cumulative, perpetual preferred shares were downgraded to Baa1 from A1. Please see the RBC section (non-cumulative preferred shares) for the rationale.

CIBC’s non-cumulative, perpetual preferred shares were downgraded to Baa1 from A1. Please see the RBC section (non-cumulative preferred shares) for the rationale.

Of note, Moody’s downgraded the long-term ratings of the Bank of Montreal (BMO) and all its subsidiaries on January 22, 2010. As part of this action, Moody’s completed the review for downgrade of BMO’s hybrid capital instruments. Moody’s downgraded BMO’s preferred stock securities (which include non-cumulative preferred shares and other hybrid capital instruments) four notches to Baa1 from Aa3. The first notch reflected the downgrade of BMO’s unsupported/stand-alone BFSR. The next three notches of the downgrade were a consequence of implementing Moody’s revised methodology for rating bank hybrid securities.

Please visit www.moodys.com to access the following documents for additional information:

Moody’s Special Comment: Canadian Bank Subordinated Capital Ratings — June 2009

Moody’s Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt — November 17, 2009

Frequently Asked Questions: Moody’s Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt — November 17, 2009

By way of comparison, Moody’s does not rate MFC, rates SLF preferreds at Baa2 and does not rate GWO, IAG or ELF.

Related posts on PrefBlog are Moody’s Downgrades BMO Prefs 4 Notches to Baa1 and Moody’s May Massacre Hybrid Ratings.

FFN.PR.A: Capital Units Dividend Suspended

February 20th, 2010

Financial 15 Split II Corp. has announced:

its regular monthly distribution of $0.04375 for each Preferred share ($0.525 annually). Distributions are payable March 10, 2010 to shareholders on record as at February 26, 2010. There will not be a distribution paid to Financial 15 II Class A Shares for February 26, 2010 as per the Prospectus which states no regular monthly dividends or other distributions will be paid on the Class A Shares in any month as long as the net asset value per unit is equal to or less than $15.00. The net asset value as of February 12, 2010 was $14.78.

The capital unit dividend was also suspended from November 2008 to July 2009, inclusive.

FFN.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was upgraded to Pfd-3(low) by DBRS. FFN.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™, but is relegate to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Carrick: Rising inflation set to shake up sleepy preferreds

February 20th, 2010

Rob Carrick was kind enough to quote me in his Portfolio Strategy column of February 20:

A different take on the appeal of perpetual and fixed reset preferreds is offered by James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management. He doesn’t believe perpetuals will fall in price as much as some people expect and, regardless, he still sees some benefits in them for investors who want income.

His argument begins with the point that there are two issues to consider when choosing income-producing investments – the safety level of the investment itself and the reliability of the income it produces.

Fixed resets do a good job of protecting investors when inflation’s on the rise and pushing up interest rates, Mr. Hymas [pontificated]. But they fall behind perpetuals when it comes to preserving a reliable flow of income. Let’s say you bought some fixed reset preferreds back in early 2009, when they were being issued with yields of 6 per cent or more. Those shares could be very well be redeemed in a few years, leaving you in the tough position of trying to replace a 6-per-cent yield.

With perpetuals, your income flow lasts indefinitely, if not in perpetuity, and it’s comparatively safe.

“If you’ve got something from one of the big banks paying $1 a year, you can be as sure as you can be of anything in the investing world that you’re going to get that $1 a year until the shares are called,” Mr. Hymas said.

Mr. Carrick had to deal with the journalist’s constant bugbear: how to address a complex question for a wide swath of the investing public in 1,000 words or less. One question I must always ask when responding to queries on “interest rates” is: “Which interest rates?”. Short term rates are different from long term rates; government rates are different from corporate rates. And that’s just where we start!

The article has eight comments so far – a good one that addresses the issue is:

The premise of the article is that inflation is rising. Without that assumption all of it become irrelevant.

But there is no argument presented to support that premise. Just because very-short-term-government-set rates are rising does NOT mean that inflation is rising.

And just because the current month’s CPI was closing on 2% does not mean the rate is rising either. That rise is just a reversal of last year’s deflation – both short term events.

And, of course, even if we grant that FixedResets are good at protecting principal (which is only true up to a point – they are subject to exactly the same long-term credit risk as Straights) there is the eternal Fixed Income tug-of-war to consider between Protection of Principal and Protection of Income. You can’t have both; money market instruments emphasize protection of principal; straight perpetuals emphasize protection of income. FixedResets are in between – but not so close to the Money Market side of the struggle as many people like to think.

Update: A few more comments: the first, a retail view of the case for FixedResets (subsequent editing note applied to quote)

Rate-reset preferreds eliminate the risk of rising interest rates while perpeptuals expose you to full risk. If you bought bank reset perpetuals preferreds, when first issued in 2009, you now have a 10% capital gain (on paper )but most importantly a guaranteed 6% dividend over the next five years. If economic growth is slow then rates will not rise much over that time and the dividend is gold. The rate reset will then kick in to protect you going forward.

If rates do rise substantially, the banks will redeem the shares and you can re-invest in a high interest savings account until another investment opportunity presents itself. In this way your capital is preserved.

On the other hand, if you bought perpetuals and rates rise substantially, the shares will be deeply discounted and you will have a substantial capital loss. If you choose not to sell you will be locked in and have inferior returns going forward.

On a risk-return basis the rate-reset perpetuals preferreds are the winners IMHO.

The commenter got it right first time: rate-reset (or FixedReset, in my nomenclature) are indeed perpetuals, a thing that is very often forgetten in good times. The credit risk is forever. While the FixedReset structure does indeed provide protection against inflation (to the extent that this is reflected in 5-Year Government bonds, which is a pretty large extent!), but provides no protection whatsoever against credit risk. If a particular issuer gets into trouble between now and the next reset and is not able to refinance at a lower rate, it will probably not call the issue – and the price of the issue will, almost (but not quite) by definition be lower than par.

Additionally, one should always remember that in this wicked world, nice things cost money. Inflation protection is nice. And it costs money, as I have discussed in my essays on break-even rate shock. Naturally, having calculated the cost, one can quite legitimately take the view that it’s cheap at the price – but I suspect many purchasers do not attempt to quantify the cost in any way whatsoever. Especially when the same protection is available for free with Government real return bonds (RRBs)! I’m willing to bet that there are a few investors out there who have nominal Canadas and FixedReset preferreds, when it be more logical to own RRBs and Straight Perpetuals.

But the crux of the argument is If rates do rise substantially, the banks will redeem the shares and you can re-invest in a high interest savings account until another investment opportunity presents itself. In this way your capital is preserved..

Well, in the first place the banks’ decision whether or not to redeem the shares will have little, if anythng, to do with the rate on 5-Year Canadas. If those rates are high, then to a first approximation we may assume that all other rates will be high as well; and (also to a first approximation) the decision will be made dependent upon the cost of refinancing options. It is the Reset Spread that is critical to the refinancing decision, not the five year rate.

And in the second place, even a high interest savings account (paying what? 1%?) will not replace the lost income on call. You may have your principal but – as is too often the case with investors being far more concerned than they should be with Preservation of Capital at the expense of the other objective of Preservation of Income – income will suffer.

I rather liked one of the other comments:

James Hymas Rocks!

… even with the “thumbs down” comment rating!

Cleveland Fed Releases February Economic Trends

February 19th, 2010

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has released the February 2010 edition of Economic Trends with articles:

  • December Price Statistics
  • Financial Markets, Money and Monetary Policy
  • What Is the Yield Curve Telling Us?…And Should We Have Listened?
  • A Sign of Normalization
  • Imports and Economic Growth
  • The Employment Situation, January 2010
  • Real GDP: Fourth-Quarter 2009 Advance Estimate
  • Fourth District Employment Conditions
  • Seriously Delinquent Mortgages in the Fourth District

There’s a fascinating note on used car prices:

Roughly half of the overall increase in the core CPI in December was due to a 35 percent increase in used car and truck prices. Th e unusual strength in used car and truck prices over the past five months (up nearly 31 percent) has been somewhat of a mystery. Initially, the story read as if the CARS program negatively impacted used auto supply, driving up auction prices. However, it’s hard to imagine that this is still the case. Perhaps the story now is that there has been some substitution away from new vehicles recently, possibly due to credit constraints, as some used car purchases are cash transactions. Either way, new vehicle prices slipped down 3.1 percent in December.


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They also discuss the Fed’s gradual easing out of targetted intervention:

Four of the Federal Reserve’s new credit facilities were allowed to expire on February 1. These include the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF), the Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF). As financial market functioning improved, private sources of liquidity became sufficient and the demand for credit via the special facilities diminished. It is important to note that credit extended through these facilities required good collateral backing. Moreover, to limit the use of the facilities, the terms of lending were set to be less attractive than private sources. In this sense, the facilities mimicked the features of the Fed’s Discount Window—a facility available to qualified depositories in normal times.


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Mind you, the Fed’s balance sheet is still bloated by over a trillion dollars in mortgage paper, so hold off on plans for your end-of-crisis party. Econbrowser‘s James Hamilton provided some perspective in his post Bernanke on the Fed’s balance sheet:


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