Archive for March, 2007

YPG.PR.A Dials a Wrong Number

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007

The market appeared to disdain the Yellow Pages Group new issue, as it dropped well below the issue to close at 24.63-65, 50×14, on heavy volume of 757,556 shares. The YPG bonds, 5.25% of Feb 2016 are now indicated at Canada 4.5/15 + 146bp, call it about 5.44% at last night’s close. So the bonds have improved since announcement date – even though they’ve widened. Can’t blame the bond market for this one!

Curve Price & Comparables for YPG.PR.A
Item YPG.PR.A BNA.PR.C BAM.PR.J CFS.PR.A
Price due to base-rate 24.11 23.85 26.53 9.89
Price due to short-term -0.39 -0.47 -0.50 -0.14
Price due to long-term 1.41 1.70 1.79 0.52
Price to to Cumulative Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Price due to SplitShareCorp 0.00 -1.21 0.00 -0.22
Price due to Retractibility 0.73 1.34 1.33 0.25
Price due to Liquidity 0.49 0.90 -0.13 0.17
Price due to Credit Spread (2) 0.00 -0.32 -0.32 0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (3) -0.54 0.00 0.00 0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (High) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Price due to Credit Spread (Low) 0.00 0.00 -0.30 0.00
Price due to error 0.01 0.07 0.04 0.00
Curve Price (Taxable Curve) $25.80 $25.84 $28.44 $10.47
DBRS Credit Rating Pfd-3(high) Pfd-2 Pfd-2(low) Pfd-1
Quote, 3/6 $24.63-65 24.77-84 27.96-12 $10.15-25
YTW (After Tax – bid) 3.62% 3.56% 3.29% 3.19%
Modified Duration (YTW – after tax) 5.22 9.61 6.13 4.47
Pseudo-Convexity (YTW – after tax) 0.38 0.40 -10.95 0.47
YTW (Pre-tax) 4.56% 4.47% 4.14% 4.01%

Naturally, this issue is more attractive at 24.65 than it was at 25.00 … but I’ll remind potential purchasers again: it’s only a Pfd-3(high) credit, so it should be included in portfolios only as spice, not as core!

The issue has been added to the HIMIPref™ database with the securityCode A56000. A reorgDataEntry has been input to record the transition from the preIssue code of P50011.

As a Pfd-3(high) issue by DBRS, this issue is not eligible for inclusion in the HIMIPref™ indices.

STW.PR.A : Issuer Bid

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007

STRATA Income Fund has announced:

its intention to make a normal course issuer bid for its Capital Units and Preferred Securities through the facilities of the Toronto Stock Exchange (the “TSX”). This normal course issuer bid is intended to commence on March 8, 2007 and will terminate on March 7, 2008. In accordance with the Declaration of Trust by which STRATA is governed, market purchases pursuant to its normal course issuer bid may be effected by the Fund.
    At February 27, 2007 there were 9,215,056 Capital Units and 6,214,711 Preferred Securities issued and outstanding including 9,211,056 Capital Units and 6,209,696 Preferred Securities in the public float. STRATA may, during the 12 month period commencing March 8, 2007 purchase on the TSX up to 921,105 Capital Units and 620,969 Preferred Securities, being 10% of the respective public floats. Since March 8, 2006, STRATA has purchased 6,100 Capital Units at an average price of $8.40 per Capital Unit under its previously approved normal course issuer bid. STRATA believes that its Capital Units and Preferred Securities represent good value for the Fund and purchases under the normal course issuer bid may serve to enhance returns to securityholders.

A reasonable course of action, given that the capital units’ NAV is $9.30 and the capital units closed on the TSX at $8.00!

We shall see how far (if at all!) the price of preferred securities goes up in response to the bid … the recent partial redemption at $10.60 has already been a windfall to holders!

PrefLetter : For Ontarians Only

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007

In my last PrefLetter update I indicated:

The other legal issue is where I can sell it. I know I can offer this product for sale to Ontario residents – my existing registrations (corporate and personal) with the OSC allow me to do that. I’m not licensed in other provinces, however, so I’ve asked counsel to determine how to get the newsletter class of registration in other provinces. If it’s easy and doesn’t cost too much, I’ll do it as a speculation. Otherwise, I’ll have to get a better idea of the demand for the product before doing this.

Counsel advises that getting newsletter-eligible registration status has the same cost and headache quotient as getting Investment Counsellor / Portfolio Manager (ICPM) status. So I’m not going to do it! It seems that I can offer my fund nationally, but not my newsletter. Anybody who thinks this is ridiculous red tape and “Gotcha Regulation” is welcome to contact their local regulator and say so.

As always, I will be very happy to apply for registration in any province as soon as I have some kind of reasonable expectation of breaking even on the venture … just covering my regulatory & legal fees will be enough to start with! So I’ll be accepting expressions of interest from those Canadians not fortunate enough to live in Ontario, in the hopes of accumulating enough requests to make the headaches worthwhile.

March 5, 2007

Tuesday, March 6th, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.00% 3.82% 81,158 3.90 1 +0.2389% 1,049.4
Fixed-Floater 4.97% 3.46% 110,378 4.61 5 +0.0241% 1,041.7
Floater 4.72% -16.25% 76,368 0.67 3 -0.0654% 1,047.5
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.40% 75,554 2.12 17 +0.0099% 1,031.6
Split-Share 5.07% 1.25% 204,335 3.24 15 -0.0273% 1,043.5
Interest Bearing 6.48% 1.67% 64,473 2.33 5 +0.3755% 1,040.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.62% 259,811 5.40 53 -0.0284% 1,055.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.54% 4.54% 823,574 14.20 9 -0.0754% 1,064.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
FIG.PR.A InterestBearing +1.0891% Traded as high as $10.37 before closing at $10.21-35, 5×10, on volume of 17,679 shares with a burst of activity (6,538 shares) in the last few minutes before the close. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of -13.62 based on a call 2007-04-04 at $10.00, which really sent the average YTW of the InterestBearing index for a loop.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
PIC.PR.A SplitShare 210,473 Nice volume for a seasoned split share! Scotia crossed 70,000 at 16.00. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 3.94% based on a bid of $16.01 and a hardMaturity 2010-11-01 at $15.00
PWF.PR.K PerpetualPremium 96,000 RBC crossed 37,200 at $26.25, then another 40,000 at the same price, then sold 15,000 to Desjardins at the $26.25 mark. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.28% based on a bid of $26.25 and a call 2014-11-30 at $25.00.
CM.PR.J PerpetualDiscount 52,307 Recent new issue on credit watch positive. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.54% based on a bid of $24.93 and a limitMaturity.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount 50,995 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.47% based on a bid of $25.05 and a call 2015-4-18 at $25.00.
BNS.PR.K PerpetualPremium 45,820 RBC crossed 40,000 at $26.25. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.18% based on a bid of $26.11 and a call 2014-5-28 at 25.00.

There were thirteen other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

HPF.PR.B : Update to Dec. 31/06

Monday, March 5th, 2007

Lawrence Asset Management has released its Dec. 31/06 Financials for this split-share. This is a small-ish split-share corporation in which I take an inordinate amount of interest, which I can only attempt to justify by its unusual structure and my feeling that DBRS has got the credit rating on it wrong. Really wrong, as I argued in my previous post on the topic. So .. let’s have a quick look at some simplified financials:

High Income Preferred Share Corp
Financials as of Dec. 31, 2006
Assets (thousands, CAD)  
Pledged Portfolio 26,198
Other Assets 26,315
Total Assets 52,513
 
Liabilities (thousands, CAD)  
Misc. 922
Senior Pfd 33,068
Junior Pfd 18,523
Equity Nil, Nada, Zip, Zilch
Total Liabilities and Equity 52,513

Note the balance sheet value of the Junior Prefs. 18,523 (thousand). This is less than the redemption value of 1,322,726 (shares) x $14.70 (per share) = 19,444,072, because they don’t have the money. However, it has improved a little since last time!

Looking at the income statement, we simplify it to:

Six Months to 2006-12-31 (thousands)
Item Gain (Loss)
Investment Income 1,243
Management Fee (273)
Other Expenses (247)
Net Investment Gain (Loss) 520
Distributions (1,672)
Increase in Carrying Value of Junior Prefs 286
Realized & Unrealized Gain on Investments 1,236
Net Gain (Loss) 0

Note that the “Increase in Carrying Value of Junior Prefs” is a bookkeeping identity: All profit and loss that would otherwise accrue to equity holders will be charged or credited to the Junior Prefs’ carrying value until such time as this carrying value (i) is equal to the redemption value, or (ii) is wiped out.

So there’s some good news in the above to the Junior Pref Holders! Their carrying value increased, since the company was able to make more money from investments than it paid out in distributions.

In fact, distributions + change = $1,958M on total assets (at June 30, 2005) of $52,085M, so we can ballpark the investment return as +3.8% over the six month period. Which isn’t bad, until you look at their investment mandate:

To provide the Company with the means to meet its investment objectives with respect to the Series 2 Shares and the Equity Shares, the proceeds of the Offering, net of Offering expenses and the amount used to acquire the Series 1 Repayment Portfolio, will be invested in a diversified portfolio (the ‘‘Managed Portfolio’’) consisting of shares of American companies that have a market capitalization of greater than U.S.$2 billion or companies which form part of the S&P 500 Index, and shares of Canadian public companies which form part of the S&P/TSX 60 Index. The direct holding of shares of American companies is limited so that the Offered Shares will not be foreign property under the Tax Act. Up to 25% of the Managed Portfolio may be invested in units or similar equity securities of Income Funds as the Investment Manager deems appropriate. In addition, up to 15% of the Managed Portfolio may be invested in debt securities which are rated to be at least investment grade.

Over the same six month period, the S&P/TSX composite increased by 12.54% and the S&P 500 increased by 12.74% (in USD) or 17.88% (in CAD). You make the call as to whether these guys had a good six months or not!

When we look at asset coverage in the DBRS manner, we just cross off the pledged portfolio against the senior prefs (and completely ignore the fact that dividends have to be paid on the seniors in the interim) to get an asset coverage ratio changing over the last six months from 1.37:1 to 1.30:1. In other words, there is some reason to deprecate the apparent improvement in asset coverage as meaningless, because of the $1,236M in Gains over the period, $1,556M occurred in the Series 1 Repayment Portfolio, which is guaranteed anyway! The Managed Portfolio, which is supposed to pay off the Junior Prefs, took a loss of $320M!

Looking at the asset coverage in a more usual fashion, we find that (Total Assets) – (Misc Liabilities) – (Senior Prefs) = $18,523M which is supposed to cover the $19,444M Junior Pref Redemption Value, for coverage of 0.95:1, which is an improvement over the Jun 05 value … until, of course, one remembers the Forward Agreement, which kills off any such change since the increase in value was derived from the wrong pigeonhole.

According to me, this investment is just getting worse every time it’s looked at. And, according to Lawrence Asset, the NAVPS of the Juniors is $13.67, a coverage of 0.93:1 as of March 2 … although they report a coverage of 1.27x presumably due to incorporation of the Forward Agreement.

Which leads to a funny thought … say the pattern set by the last six months continues, and they make so much money in the Repayment Portfolio that it covers the Senior Prefs exactly, while the Managed Portfolio doesn’t move. In such a case, their reported asset coverage will go down, since the forward won’t be worth anything! Now, that would be funny!

HPF.PR.B closed today at $15.25-35, 112×14 – a nice sized bid! Not a bid I understand very well, though.

New Issue : Royal Bank 4.45% Perpetuals

Monday, March 5th, 2007

From my Tier 1 Capital notes:

It is also interesting that Royal has used up about half its available room. Given that their Tier 1 Ratio at year-end significantly lagged the competition, I suspect that there will be more opportunistic issuances in addition to RY.PR.D and RY.PR.E.

It’s always gratifying to have one’s predictions justified!

RBC has announced:

Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) today announced a domestic public offering of $200 million of Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares Series AF.

The bank will issue 8 million Preferred Shares priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive non-cumulative preferential quarterly dividends in the amount of $0.278125 per share, to yield 4.45 per cent annually. The bank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares at the same offering price.

So … 8-million shares @$25.00, a $200-million issue and the potential for $50-million more if the underwriters exercise their options. Pays 4.45% = $1.1125 annually, first dividend August 24 of $0.496815 based on a March 14 closing.

RY Pr Ser AF Redemption Schedule
From To Price
2012-5-24 2013-5-23 $26.00
2013-5-24 2014-5-23 25.75
2014-5-24 2015-5-23 25.50
2015-5-24 2016-5-23 25.25
2016-5-24 INFINITE DATE 25.00

The issue is provisionally rated Pfd-1 by DBRS and P-1(low) by S&P.

It’s a bought deal, expected to close 2007-3-14.

More later.

Later, more

Royal Bank 4.45% Perp New Issue & Comparatives
Data RY.PR.? RY.PR.A RY.PR.E
Price due to base-rate 22.72 22.69 23.01
Price due to short-term -0.36 -0.36 -0.36
Price due to long-term 1.27 1.27 1.28
Price to to Cumulative Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00
Price due to Liquidity 1.67 1.67 1.68
Price due to error -0.04 -0.04 -0.04
Curve Price (Taxable Curve) 25.27 25.23 25.57
Dividend Rate $1.1125 $1.1125 %1.125
Quote 3/5 25.00
Issue
24.89-98 25.05-16
YTW (after tax) 3.55% 3.57% 3.61%
YTW Date 2016-06-23 / Infinite Infinite 2037-03-05
Credit Rating (DBRS) Pfd-1 Pfd-1 Pfd-1
YTW (Pre-Tax)  4.46% 4.49%  4.55% 
YTW Modified Duration (Pre-Tax)  7.60 16.43 16.30
YTW Pseudo-Convexity (Pre-Tax)  -68.1 -37.5 -59.4

PrefLetter a go!

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

I previously indicated that I was considering a monthly preferred share newsletter and I have decided that it will officially launch in the near future.

My test production was prepared as of the close on February 9 and has been very well received by those who looked at it. I am very grateful for all the feedback – especially the one dedicated soul whose comments came close to exceeding the length of the letter itself!

There seem to be a lot of people out there who want quick, actionable, independent preferred share advice … so I’ll roll out this product and see how many of them want it enough to pay for it!

I am aiming to have one more “practice” issue, using data as of the close on March 9. I anticipate a monthly schedule of preparation as of the close on the second Friday of each month with electronic delivery to subscribers prior to the next market opening (which will almost always be the following Monday morning, of course).

Pricing will be $185 for twelve issues, with single issues available for $29.00. Plus tax!

I want to launch in April, but there are a number of issues that are out of my hands. On-line credit card shopping is certainly supposed to be easy, but I won’t believe it until I’ve built the system, connected to the payments centre,  purchased a subscription for myself and seen the money in my bank account! I am negotiating with a salesman for a major third party credit card payment processor and, with luck, will be in a position to commence testing next week.

For those who are interested – when I say “built the system”, I really just mean “plugging into the software available”. Web hosting for all my sites is supplied by Bell Canada and I plan to use their “EasyStore” software. I am assuming, but have not yet confirmed, that Bell’s security and software will be acceptable to the credit card payment processor; hopefully I’ll have all that sorted out next week.

There are also, as always, legal issues. My legal counsel is preparing the verbiage involving prohibitions on redistribution and standard disclaimers. That part’s easy! The other legal issue is where I can sell it. I know I can offer this product for sale to Ontario residents – my existing registrations (corporate and personal) with the OSC allow me to do that. I’m not licensed in other provinces, however, so I’ve asked counsel to determine how to get the newsletter class of registration in other provinces. If it’s easy and doesn’t cost too much, I’ll do it as a speculation. Otherwise, I’ll have to get a better idea of the demand for the product before doing this.

There are some proposed new rules, I am told, that would make such an extension of registration automatic, but these new rules have been released for comment only and won’t be enacted until late this year, if ever.

Two administrative items that seem reasonably easy are the website and the advertising. I’m building the website now – it is, naturally, largely an extended advertisement for the product, but there is a certain amount of reference material there as well. I will try to avoid technical terms in the newsletter (those who are intimately familiar with fixed income analysis should be subscribing to the software!) but there are some that I can’t avoid including if the risks and rewards of each issue are to be adequately described. So it is the website’s job to provide explanations of these terms, and to present information regarding the philosophy behind the selection of recommended issues. Advertising – well, that’s easy! Google has made the act of purchasing their services very simple and straightforward!

However, administrative headaches aside, I’m very pleased with the response to my first effort and with the wonderful job my graphic artist did to produce a good-looking, clearly labelled report. As noted my second practice issue will be prepared as of next Friday’s close – I will send a free copy to almost anybody who wants one and sends an eMail to me. You’re not obliged to comment, but it sure would be appreciated! What I’m looking for is an understanding of what it would take for you to subscribe to the letter and recommend it to your friends.

The newsletter is intended to be distributed to retail investors and to retail advisors.

Malachite Fund : February Results

Sunday, March 4th, 2007

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for February month-end. The unit value is $9.5917. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to February 28, 2007
One Month +0.67%
Three Months +0.63%
One Year +6.66%
Two Years (annualized) +6.16%
Three Years (annualized) +7.16%
Four Years (annualized) +12.56%
Five Years (annualized) +10.15%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund.

For more information, see the fund’s main page.

Research : Retractible Preferreds and Bonds

Saturday, March 3rd, 2007

The new edition of Canadian Moneysaver has been published, which means I can publicly release my column from the last one.

This article seeks to remind investors that the dividend tax credit is not the only factor to be examined when investing. When we look at retractible shares issued by operating companies, we find that the Yields-to-Worst available are not sufficiently high to be an easy choice over comparable corporate bonds, even after allowing for the effect of lower taxation rates on dividends.

Which is kind of a no-fun conclusion to draw for a preferred share specialist, but I wouldn’t want anybody to get angry with me after figuring it out for themselves!

Look for the research link!

March 2, 2007

Friday, March 2nd, 2007
Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 4.01% 3.88% 84,498 3.90 1 -0.0398% 1,046.9
Fixed-Floater 4.97% 3.53% 112,983 4.61 5 +0.1750% 1,041.4
Floater 4.72% -16.95% 76,631 0.48 3 0.0000% 1,048.1
Op. Retract 4.71% 2.43% 76,314 2.12 17 +0.1821% 1,031.5
Split-Share 5.07% 1.05% 208,754 3.25 15 +0.0439% 1,043.8
Interest Bearing 6.50% 4.11% 63,264 2.33 5 -0.0853% 1,036.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.01% 3.55% 262,920 5.11 53 +0.0725% 1,055.7
Perpetual-Discount 4.54% 4.53% 835,301 14.21 9 +0.0940% 1,064.9
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
ACO.PR.A OpRet +1.2887% TD crossed 33,000 at 27.95 and were on the buy side for all other board-lot trades today, four tranches executed immediately prior to the cross at prices from 27.60 to 27.95. At those prices yesterday’s cross at 27.50 was a bargain! At the closing quotation of 27.51-98, the pre-tax YTW quote is 2.29%-1.32%. Too rich for my blood, but quite normal for this issue. However, the graph of Modified-Duration-to-Worst shows the situation to be unsustainable … we will see within two years just whether Atco, with its stellar operating results really wants to pay $1.4375 p.a. for a retractible … even with the redemption cost declining by $0.50 annually.  

The MDTW graph is quite instructive, by the way (one point was killed for being off the curve, but the YTW scenario has been very stable over the past year). See those little jumps interupting a downward line? That’s the dividends being paid.

Hmm … maybe there’s an article in there somewhere …

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
BCE.PR.G FixFloat 506,800 Nesbitt crossed 500,000 at 25.50.
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater 305,600 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.50, then another 253,500 at the same price. This was also an active trader yesterday.
BCE.PR.H Ratchet 240,000 Nesbitt crossed 240,000 at $25.12
BCE.PR.Z FixFloat 204,435  
BCE.PR.T Scraps (would be FixFloat, but there are volume concerns) 117,450 No volume concerns today! Nesbitt crossed 115,000 at 25.80.
BCE.PR.C FixFloat 102,400 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 25.60

There were sixteen other “$25 p.v. equivalent” index-included issues with over 10,000 shares traded today.

Poor old BCE.PR.A! The only member of the FixFloat Index not to be traded in size today!