Market Action

August 12, 2025

So, the US Inflation number came out:

The Consumer Price Index stayed steady at 2.7 percent compared to the same time last year. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2 percent from June. But an important gauge tracking consumer prices that strips out volatile food and energy prices accelerated more rapidly.

“Core” C.P.I., which is closely watched by the central bank, jumped 0.3 percent over the course of the month, or 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. That is one of the largest monthly increases so far this year and represents the fastest annual pace in five months. In June, core inflation rose 0.2 percent from the previous month, or 2.9 percent from July 2024.

Businesses have managed to avoid passing along price increases because of a strategy earlier in the year to stockpile goods that were likely to be subject to Mr. Trump’s levies. Many companies have also sought to absorb the costs themselves in order to avoid driving away customers, some of whom are increasingly under financial strain.

But the July data showed more businesses reaching a tipping point, left with little option but to raise prices following June’s notable uptick. The biggest impact has so far been concentrated in categories such as furniture, appliances and other household wares, as well as recreation goods and footwear.

In July, the broader household furnishings index rose 0.7 percent in June, following a 1 percent increase in June. Compared to the same time last year, those prices are up 2.4 percent. Recreation-related prices rose 0.4 percent. Some of the larger gains in July came in apparel and footwear, categories that are exposed to tariffs on countries around the world, including India, Vietnam and China. Prices on infants and toddlers apparel were up 3.3 percent in July. Footwear was up 1.4 percent.

Speaking of statistics, the new BLS honcho was named:

President Trump announced on Monday that he would nominate E.J. Antoni, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Mr. Trump fired the previous commissioner of the agency after it reported weak job growth.

Dr. Antoni, who would need to be confirmed by the Senate, has previously criticized the bureau and questioned its methods and reports. His nomination underscored Mr. Trump’s attempts to place his own allies in control of a key repository of data about the nation’s hiring, wages and prices.

“There are better ways to collect, process, and disseminate data — that is the task for the next B.L.S. commissioner, and only consistent delivery of accurate data in a timely manner will rebuild the trust that has been lost over the last several years,” Dr. Antoni posted on X last week.“There are better ways to collect, process, and disseminate data — that is the task for the next B.L.S. commissioner, and only consistent delivery of accurate data in a timely manner will rebuild the trust that has been lost over the last several years,” Dr. Antoni posted on X last week.

Kevin Hassett, the director of the White House National Economic Council, previously insisted the administration was “absolutely not” trying to shoot the messenger on the heels of a poor jobs report.

The agency has already seen quite a few departures. It employed about 2,300 people in September 2024, the most recent official data available, but about a third of top positions are currently vacant. And the White House has already weakened outside oversight of the agency’s methods by dissolving an advisory panel of experts in January.

Those changes, along with a diminished budget, will also make it difficult for Dr. Antoni to tackle what economists see as a legitimate problem at the bureau: shrinking survey coverage and declining response rates, which can exacerbate the kinds of large revisions that Mr. Trump cited as a reason for firing Dr. McEntarfer.

In its budget request for 2026, the White House proposed decreasing the bureau’s budget by $56 million.

The new spittle-licker promptly came up with a … surprising … idea:

President Trump’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics is suggesting that the agency suspend its monthly jobs report, an economic staple that is relied upon by the Federal Reserve and U.S. businesses to gauge the health of the economy.

In an interview on Fox News Digital on Monday ahead of his nomination, E.J. Antoni criticized the monthly employment report as flawed and suggested it be replaced with “more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data.”

“How on earth are businesses supposed to plan — or how is the Fed supposed to conduct monetary policy — when they don’t know how many jobs are being added or lost in our economy? It’s a serious problem that needs to be fixed immediately,” Antoni told Fox News Digital.

He added, “Until it is corrected, the BLS should suspend issuing the monthly job reports but keep publishing the more accurate, though less timely, quarterly data.”

Responding to the BLS’ employment surveys is voluntary for businesses, while the federal government’s Office of Management and Budget directs the BLS to release “robust” data on basic economic indicators in a “timely” manner. But that’s become more challenging as fewer people and institutions respond to surveys, experts say.

“Response rates have declined for nearly every top-tier government statistical survey over the last decade, a trend that accelerated during the pandemic,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in an Aug. 11 research note.

He then promptly illustrated the administration’s penchant for thinking about things only after the tough-guy talk:

President Donald Trump’s pick to head the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who previously proposed scrapping monthly jobs reports, is now backing off that idea, according to a report.
Trump tapped EJ Antoni, the chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, for the role after firing the agency’s last commissioner following her release of a poor July jobs report.

He has since walked back on that proposal, CNN reported. Antoni will continue to issue monthly jobs numbers if confirmed, Heritage Foundation economist Stephen Moore told CNN Tuesday.

It’s not immediately clear what may have changed his mind. The Independent has reached out to the Heritage Foundation for more information.

Just wait until these clowns find out that doing a good job costs money, spent largely on staff to negate the DOGE firings. Lots and lots of it. They’ll be so surprised that they’ll insist on getting a few Nobel prizes for discovering the concept.

Incidentally, WordPress fans, it turns out that having an unbalanced number of ‘bolding’ formatting statements causes all sorts of peculiar things to happen with the layout. For the last ellipsis in the last blockquote, I had bold-ellipsis-bold instead of bold-ellipsis-unbold and this caused … problems that were not very obvious. Thanks, WordPress!

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 6.91 % 7.36 % 38,382 13.06 1 0.1250 % 2,394.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2291 % 4,603.2
Floater 6.60 % 6.91 % 38,754 12.61 3 0.2291 % 2,652.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0616 % 3,687.4
SplitShare 4.75 % 4.25 % 49,517 2.38 7 -0.0616 % 4,403.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0616 % 3,435.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.79 % -5.26 % 112,112 0.08 2 0.0198 % 3,077.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.59 % 5.72 % 45,070 14.30 30 0.3870 % 3,346.0
FixedReset Disc 5.58 % 6.14 % 119,010 13.37 37 0.0379 % 3,041.7
Insurance Straight 5.53 % 5.58 % 58,861 14.43 18 -0.4013 % 3,264.2
FloatingReset 5.27 % 5.33 % 34,451 14.87 1 -0.2815 % 3,740.1
FixedReset Prem 5.88 % 4.95 % 115,225 2.50 17 0.0410 % 2,631.9
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0379 % 3,109.3
FixedReset Ins Non 5.20 % 5.53 % 70,324 14.26 15 1.0703 % 3,084.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
GWO.PR.H Insurance Straight -9.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %
GWO.PR.G Insurance Straight -3.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.17
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight -1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.34
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Discount -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 24.60
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
MFC.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
ENB.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.27
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
SLF.PR.D Insurance Straight 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.42
Evaluated at bid price : 21.68
Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
BN.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 23.12
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
GWO.PR.R Insurance Straight 1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.36
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
IFC.PR.I Insurance Straight 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 23.90
Evaluated at bid price : 24.42
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.15
Evaluated at bid price : 22.43
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.62
Evaluated at bid price : 20.62
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 2.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 6.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non 10.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 23.51
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 208,374 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 171,440 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.89
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 142,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-09-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 62,425 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.87
Evaluated at bid price : 24.11
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
GWO.PR.G Insurance Straight 51,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.17
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc 40,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 23.32
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
There were 8 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible.
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.H Insurance Straight Quote: 20.10 – 22.27
Spot Rate : 2.1700
Average : 1.3263

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %

PVS.PR.L SplitShare Quote: 26.25 – 27.25
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6367

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2030-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.25
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %

GWO.PR.G Insurance Straight Quote: 22.45 – 23.62
Spot Rate : 1.1700
Average : 0.8408

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.17
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.87 %

CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.59 – 21.75
Spot Rate : 1.1600
Average : 0.8437

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 20.59
Evaluated at bid price : 20.59
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %

GWO.PR.P Insurance Straight Quote: 23.06 – 24.37
Spot Rate : 1.3100
Average : 1.0406

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.78
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.93 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.32 – 24.14
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.6743

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2055-08-12
Maturity Price : 22.95
Evaluated at bid price : 23.32
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %

8 comments August 12, 2025

brian says:

Floater Prices
Hi. I’m hoping for some input on the prices of floating prefs.
Taking BN.pr.B as an example… during the lows of October 2023 it bottomed out around $10.60 and now it’s trading at $12.77. Compared to the rate-reset prefs, which have risen about 45% since those 2023 lows, the floaters are doing relatively poorly and have come nowhere close to regaining their peaks of 2018 and 2022.
Why??
I’ve been buying some of the floaters on the basis of their solid dividend (BN.pr.B is paying about 137% of prime = 6.8%) and the hope that they still have a lot of room left to rise, but I wish I had an understanding of what’s holding their prices down.
Any comments welcome. Thanks.

stusclues says:

Well, as I’m sure you know, BN.PR.B/C/K are all in the same boat and I too think they are irrationally cheap. They are weird ducks in the universe of CDN prefs with their link to prime. I expect that something, sometime will happen to lower their yield.

Kevin says:

I’m sure it’s because people fear interest rates will go down again to the 2% range or so. Hard to get traction that way on the floaters.

jiHymas says:

BN.PR.B/C/K are all in the same boat and I too think they are irrationally cheap.

people fear interest rates will go down again to the 2% range or so.

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the prime rate – and from it, the implied policy rate – at which floaters have the same Current Yield as a Straight Perpetual from the same issuer.

The results are illuminating.

Another way to derive a comparison to other preferreds is to use the theory of Preferred Pairs and the Pairs Equivalency Calculator

brassens says:

If you compare the BN prime floater to their fixed reset, the floaters tends to give higher yield than the reset’s actual yield and even their theorical reset date yield with today’s GOC.
When you look at BPO, the prime floater are giving 7.9% right now while all the reset are either giving higher yield right now, of subsantially higher yield on their theorical reset date yield.
EX: BPO.PR.G giving 8.53% right now and potentially 8.71% with the actual GOC.
BPO.PR.R giving 6.32% now but 9.43% potentially with the actual GOC.

Why is there such a big difference with the way BN and BPO’s floating prime issues are being treated?

stusclues says:

“people fear interest rates will go down again to the 2% range or so.”

Some people undoubtedly fall into this camp but they ought to be tempered in a reasonable market by others who don’t think so.

I suspect that the BN prime-related prefs suffer from over-issuance. There are so many ways to own BN and BN-daughter company prefs that investor portfolio’s can easily become far too exposed to BN. BPO suffers from this too IMO. Investors gravitate to the prefs that are easier to understand.

Kevin says:

My favorite BPO is BPO.PR.C. The reset next year is 5YR + 5.18% Min_6% which is huge. Probably they will buy out the issue as it’s crept up significantly the last while.

jiHymas says:

I suspect that the BN prime-related prefs suffer from over-issuance.

A big factor will be liquidity.

The BPO Floaters are BPO.PR.X, BPO.PR.W and BPO.PR.Y. My proprietary ‘Average Daily Trading Value’ (which seeks to deprecate the influence of occasional block trades on average volume) for these three issues now stands at $4,559, $5,028 and $1,488, respectively. Compare these numbers with, say, BN.PR.B at $70,784.

Leave a Reply