Archive for November, 2008

ASC.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-5 by DBRS

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by AIC Global Financial Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-5, with a Negative trend, from Pfd-2 (low). The rating has been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where it was placed on October 24, 2008.

In 2004, the Company issued 1.6 million Preferred Shares at $10 each and 1.6 million of Class A Shares at $15 each. The initial structure provided downside protection of approximately 58% (net of expenses).

The net proceeds from the offering were invested in a portfolio (the Portfolio) that included equity securities selected from leading bank-based, insurance-based and investment management based financial services companies with strong credit ratings. The Portfolio is actively managed by AIC Investment Services (the Manager) to invest in companies that have at least a US$1 billion market capitalization, and the weighted-average credit rating of the Portfolio will be at least equivalent to “A” at all times. To mitigate net asset value (NAV) volatility relating to foreign currency exchange fluctuation, it is expected that a minimum of 90% of all foreign content will be hedged back to Canadian dollars for the life of the transaction. The Manager also employs an option-writing strategy (covered calls and cash-covered puts) to generate additional income.

Holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly dividends yielding 5.25% per annum. The Company aims to provide holders of the Class A Shares with monthly distributions targeted at 8.0% per annum. There is an asset coverage test in place that does not permit the Company to make monthly distributions to the Class A Shares if the dividends on the Preferred Shares are in arrears or if the NAV of the Portfolio is less than $15 after giving effect to such distributions. Consequently, Class A distributions were suspended in September 2008.

The NAV of the Portfolio has declined significantly since inception. On April 17, 2008, DBRS downgraded the Preferred Shares to Pfd-2 (low), when the downside protection available to the Preferred Shares was 46%. Since then, the NAV has declined from $18.45 to $9.93 (a 46% decrease). The Preferred Shares have lost all of their downside protection and consequently have a significantly higher probability of experiencing first-dollar loss.

After taking into consideration the suspension of the Class A distributions, the Portfolio currently requires a total annualized return of more than 7% for the remaining term of the Company (about 2.5 years) in order to pay all cumulative dividends and full principal with respect to the Preferred Shares on the final maturity date. These returns will need to be generated from dividend income, option writing or capital appreciation in the Portfolio’s holdings.

Given the high hurdle rate and the grind to the portfolio, DBRS has assigned a Negative trend to the rating of the Preferred Shares.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is May 31, 2011.

ASC.PR.A was reviewed as part of the Mass DBRS Review of Splits

ASC.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™. It was moved from the SplitShare subindex to “Scraps” at the April 2007 Rebalancing on volume concerns.

CBW.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-5(low) by DBRS

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

DBRS has announced that it:

today downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by Copernican World Banks Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-5 (low), with a Negative trend, from Pfd-5. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where it was placed on October 24, 2008.

In November 2007, the Company raised gross proceeds of $96.1 million by issuing 4.805 million Preferred Shares (at $10 each) and an equal number of Class A Shares (at $10 each). The initial structure provided downside protection of 50% to the Preferred Shares as all issuance costs were paid by AIC Investment Services Inc. (the Manager).

The net proceeds from the offering were used to invest in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio) issued by bank-based financial institutions with strong credit quality (World Banks). The Portfolio is actively managed by the Manager to invest in World Banks that have at least a US$1 billion market capitalization and exhibit the potential for attractive dividend yields and strong earnings growth momentum. It is expected that a minimum of 80% of all foreign content will be hedged back to Canadian dollars at all times to mitigate net asset value (NAV) volatility relating to foreign currency exchange fluctuation. The Manager also employs an option-writing strategy (covered calls and cash-covered puts) to generate additional income.

Holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly dividends yielding 5.25% per annum. The Company aims to provide holders of the Class A Shares with monthly distributions targeted at 8.0% per annum. There is an asset coverage test in place that does not permit the Company to make monthly distributions to the Class A Shares if the dividends on the Preferred Shares are in arrears or if the NAV of the Portfolio is less than $15 after giving effect to such distributions. As a result, distributions to the Class A Shares have been suspended since December 2007.

The NAV of the Portfolio has declined significantly since inception. On July 2, 2008, DBRS downgraded the Preferred Shares to Pfd-5 when the downside protection available to the Preferred Shares was 4%. Since then, the NAV has declined from $10.39 to $7.79 (a 25% decrease). As of October 31, 2008, holders of the Preferred Shares would have experienced a loss of approximately 22% of their initial issuance price if the Portfolio holdings had been liquidated and proceeds distributed. The Portfolio requires an annualized return of more than 13% for the remaining term of the Company (about five years) in order to pay all cumulative dividends and full principal with respect to the Preferred Shares on the final maturity date. These returns will need to be generated from dividend income, option writing or capital appreciation in the Portfolio’s holdings.

There is now a significant chance that holders of the Preferred Shares will experience losses. DBRS will not lower its rating to D until it becomes clear that losses are unavoidable. Since there are still five years remaining until final maturity, the Manager has sufficient time to generate the returns necessary for holders of the Preferred Shares to avoid experiencing first-dollar loss.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is December 2, 2013.

CBW.PR.A was reviewed as part of the DBRS Mass Review of Splits.

CBW.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

CIR.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-5(low) by DBRS

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by Copernican International Financial Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-5 (low), with a Negative trend, from Pfd-4 (low). The rating has been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where it was placed on October 24, 2008.

In March and April of 2007, the Company raised gross proceeds of $158.4 million by issuing 7.92 million Preferred Shares (at $10 each) and an equal number of Class A Shares (at $10 each). The initial split share structure provided downside protection of 50% to the Preferred Shares as all issuance costs were paid by AIC Investment Services Inc. (the Manager).

The net proceeds from the offering were used to invest in a portfolio of common shares (the Portfolio) issued by international financial institutions (IFS) with strong credit quality. The Portfolio is actively managed by the Manager to invest in IFS that have at least a US$1 billion market capitalization and exhibit the potential for attractive dividend yields and strong earnings growth momentum. It is expected that a minimum of 80% of all foreign content will be hedged back to Canadian dollars at all times to mitigate net asset value (NAV) volatility relating to foreign currency exchange fluctuation. The Manager also employs an option-writing strategy (covered calls and cash-covered puts) to generate additional income.

Holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly dividends yielding 5.0% per annum. The Company aims to provide holders of the Class A Shares with monthly distributions targeted at 8.0% per annum. There is an asset coverage test in place that does not permit the Company to make monthly distributions to the Class A Shares if the dividends on the Preferred Shares are in arrears or if the NAV of the Portfolio is less than $16.50 after giving effect to such distributions. As a result, distributions to the Class A Shares have been suspended since January 2008.

The NAV of the Portfolio has declined significantly since inception. On July 2, 2008, DBRS downgraded the Preferred Shares to Pfd-4 (low) when the downside protection available to the Preferred Shares was 11%. Since then, the NAV has declined from $11.20 to $7.24 (a 35% decrease). As of October 31, 2008, holders of the Preferred Shares would have experienced a loss of approximately 28% of their initial issuance price if the Portfolio holdings had been liquidated and proceeds distributed. The Portfolio requires an annualized return of more than 15% for the remaining term of the Company (about five years) in order to pay all cumulative dividends and full principal with respect to the Preferred Shares on the final maturity date. These returns will need to be generated from dividend income, option writing or capital appreciation in the Portfolio’s holdings.

There is now a significant chance that holders of the Preferred Shares will experience losses. DBRS will not lower its rating to D until it becomes clear that losses are unavoidable. Since there are still five years remaining until final maturity, the Manager has sufficient time to generate the returns necessary for holders of the Preferred Shares to avoid experiencing first-dollar loss.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is December 2, 2013.

CIR.PR.A was reviewed as part of the DBRS Mass Review of Splits.

CIR.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

GBA.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-5(low) by DBRS

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

DBRS has announced:

has today downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by GlobalBanc Advantaged 8 Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-5 (low), with a Negative trend, from Pfd-5. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where it was placed on October 24, 2008.

In June 2007, the Company raised gross proceeds of $54 million by issuing 2.7 million Preferred Shares (at $10 each) and an equal number of Class A Shares (at $10 each) to provide downside protection of approximately 47% to the Preferred Shares (after issuance costs).

The net proceeds from the initial offering were used to purchase a portfolio of Canadian securities that were pledged to the National Bank of Canada (the Counterparty) to enter a forward agreement (the Forward Agreement) in order to gain exposure to a portfolio of common shares (the Bank Portfolio) issued by eight of the world’s largest banks, Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. (DE), Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc, UBS AG, Banco Santander Central Hispano S.A., BNP Paribas, Société Générale Group and Deutsche Bank AG.

Holders of the Preferred Shares receive fixed cumulative quarterly distributions equal to 4.5% per annum. The Company provides Class A Shareholders with distributions of capital gains when declared by the board of directors. Since inception, the Class A Shareholders have received a total of $0.0485 per share, a return of less than 0.5% of the initial share price.

The NAV of the Portfolio has declined sharply since inception. On July 2, 2008, DBRS downgraded the Preferred Shares to Pfd-5 when the NAV of the Preferred Shares was $9.70 (slightly below the par value of the Preferred Shares). Since then, the NAV has declined to $7.74 (a 20% decrease). As of November 3, 2008, holders of the Preferred Shares would have experienced a loss of approximately 23% of their initial issuance price if the Portfolio holdings had been liquidated and proceeds distributed. The Portfolio requires an annualized return of more than 11% for the remaining term of the Company (about four years) in order to pay all cumulative dividends and full principal with respect to the Preferred Shares on the final maturity date. These returns will need to be generated from dividend income and capital appreciation in the Portfolio’s holdings.

There is now a significant chance that holders of the Preferred Shares will experience losses. DBRS will not lower its rating to D until it becomes clear that losses are unavoidable. Since there are still four years remaining until final maturity, there is sufficient time for the Portfolio NAV to increase above the $10 Preferred Shares issuance price through capital appreciation.

The redemption date for both classes of shares issued is December 15, 2012.

GBA.PR.A was reviewed as part of the DBRS Mass Review of Splits.

GBA.PR.A is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

YLD.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-5 by DBRS

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

DBRS has announced:

has today downgraded the 5.5% Class I Cumulative Preferred Shares (the Class I Shares) issued by Split Yield Corporation (the Company) to Pfd-5, with a Negative trend, from Pfd-3. The rating has been removed from Under Review with Negative Implications, where it was placed on October 24, 2008. Also, DBRS has confirmed the rating of the 7.0% Class II Cumulative Preferred Shares (the Class II Shares) at D.

In April 1998, the Company issued $30.6 million of Class I Shares at $20 each, $23 million of Class II Shares at $15 each and $23 million of Capital Shares at $15 each. The net proceeds of the offering are invested in a portfolio (the Portfolio) of common shares of companies listed on one of two selected North American equity indices. The Portfolio provided initial downside protection of about 58% to the Class I Shares and 26% to the Class II Shares (after expenses). In December 2004, the final maturity date for all classes of shares was extended from February 1, 2006, to February 1, 2012 (the Termination Date), as a result of a resolution approved at a special shareholders’ meeting.

Quadravest Capital Management (the Manager) manages the Portfolio, generating income from dividends, covered-call option premiums and capital appreciation. The holders of the Class I Shares and the Class II Shares receive fixed, cumulative quarterly dividends yielding 5.50% and 7.00% per annum, respectively. The Class I Shares rank in priority to the Class II Shares with respect to the payment of dividends and repayment of capital on the Termination Date. On July 18, 2008, the Company announced that it would suspend its dividend payment for the Class II Shares for the quarter in order to preserve cash and to assist in rebuilding the net asset value (NAV) in an attempt to meet its long-term repayment objectives. The Class II Shares dividend was again suspended for the October 2008 payment. The suspension of the Class II Shares dividend benefits the Class I Shares by significantly reducing the hurdle rate required for the Manager to maintain a stable NAV.

The NAV of the Portfolio has declined significantly since inception. On January 7, 2008, DBRS downgraded the Class I Shares to Pfd-3 when the downside protection available was about 30%. Since then, the NAV has declined from $28.40 to $20.59 (a 27% decrease). As of October 31, 2008, the downside protection available to the Class I Shares is only 3%. The downgrade of the Class I Shares is primarily based on the reduced asset coverage available for the repayment of principal on the Termination Date.

Assuming the continued suspension of the Class II Shares distributions, the Portfolio still requires an annualized return of more than 7% from dividend income, option writing and/or capital appreciation in order to maintain a stable NAV. Given the high hurdle rate and the grind to the portfolio, DBRS has assigned a Negative trend to the rating of the Class I Shares.

This issue was part of the DBRS Mass Review of Split Corporations.

YLD.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™. It is included in the “Scraps” sub-index rather than “SplitShares” due to both volume and credit concerns.

New Issue: GWO Fixed Reset 6.00%+307

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Great-West Lifeco has announced a new issue.

Issue: Great West Lifeco Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series J

Size: 8-million shares (=$200-million); greenshoe for 30 days following closing of 1.2-million shares (=$30-million)

Initial Dividend: 6.00% p.a. until first Reset-Date. First dividend payable 2009-3-31 for $0.50959 based on a November 27 close.

Reset Dates: December 31, 2013 and every five years thereafter.

Convertible: Every reset date at holders’ option to and from Series K [Floater] (subject to a minimum outstanding in each series).

Reset Dividend: Series J [Reset] 5-Year Canadas +307bp. Series K [Floater] 3-month bills +307bp, reset quarterly.

Redeemable: Series J [Reset] every Reset Date at $25.00. Series K [Floater] every Reset Date at $25.00 and at all other times $25.50.

Closing: November 27, 2008

It’s very nice to see a new GWO issue – the last one was GWO.PR.I, which started trading 2006-4-12. It’s also nice to see such a good coupon on a fixed reset – the GWO perps closed last night bid to yield in the range 6.53%-6.85% … so the give-up for the reset feature is narrowing.

November 5, 2008

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

Willem Buiter & Anne Sibert write a review of The collapse of Iceland’s banks: the predictable end of a non-viable business model. As an aside, they note:

In addition, outrageous bullying behaviour by the UK authorities (who invoked the 2001 Anti-Terrorism, Crime and Security Act, passed after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the USA, to justify the freezing of the UK assets of the of Landsbanki and Kaupthing) probably precipitated the collapse of Kaupthing – the last Icelandic bank still standing at the time. The official excuse of the British government for its thuggish behaviour was that the Icelandic authorities had informed it that they would not honour Iceland’s deposit guarantees for the UK subsidiaries of its banks. Transcripts of the key conversation on the issue between British and Icelandic authorities suggest that, if the story of Pinocchio is anything to go by, a lot of people in HM Treasury today have noses that are rather longer than they used to be.

This is the real danger of counter-terrorism laws … they will be twisted to justify anything the bosses want to justify. And be re-elected in a landslide by frightened sheep. Anyway, back to economics … the authors claim that Iceland’s business model was not viable due to:

the “vulnerable quartet” of (1) a small country with (2) a large banking sector, (3) its own currency and (4) limited fiscal capacity

With this in mind, they warn:

Iceland’s circumstances were extreme, but there are other countries suffering from milder versions of the same fundamental inconsistent – or at least vulnerable – quartet:

Countries that come to mind are:

Switzerland,
Denmark,
Sweden
and even to some extent the UK, although it is significantly larger than the others and has a minor-league legacy reserve currency.

Ireland, Belgium, the Netherland and Luxembourg possess the advantage of having the euro, a global reserve currency, as their national currency. Illiquidity alone should therefore not become a fatal problem for their banking sectors. But with limited fiscal spare capacity, their ability to address serious fundamental banking sector insolvency issues may well be in doubt.

Coincidentally, I’m sure, Dennis P. Quinn & Hans-Joachim Voth argue that benefits of international diversification are declining:

After Bretton Woods, it took half a century to restore the full openness of capital accounts in advanced countries. Many Eurozone countries only revoked the last restriction in the 1990s, in the run-up to the euro’s introduction.

We argue that it is no accident that the age of restrictive capital accounts also saw remarkably low equity market correlations. Cross-border diversification opportunities identified by early papers (Grubel 1968) were indeed “too good to be true.” Once investors can take advantage of low correlations elsewhere, they will rise. Initial investors may benefit since liberalisations tend to be followed by capital gains (Henry 2000). Yet risks will not fall anywhere near as much as initially hoped, as the covariance with other stock markets inevitably increases.

How tight is the bond market? The credit card companies have maxed-out:

Credit card companies were shut out of the market for bonds backed by customer payments in October for the first time in more than 15 years, as investors shunned the debt amid the global credit freeze.

It’s the first month since April 1993 that there have been no sales, according to Wachovia Corp. data. Issuers sold $17.1 billion of the debt in October 2007, the data show.

Top-rated credit card-backed securities maturing in three years traded at a gap, or spread, of 475 basis points over the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, during the week ended Oct. 30, JPMorgan Chase & Co. data show, 25 basis points higher than the previous week. The debt was trading at 50 basis points more than Libor in January.

PerpetualDiscounts eased off today, but volume was strong. There are many very strange yield relationships between issuers in the market; its hard to tell whether the degree of credit stratification is more or less surprising than the degree of credit inversion!

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 5.32% 5.37% 69,368 15.13 6 +0.0602% 983.0
Floater 6.91% 7.02% 52,437 12.47 2 +1.7909% 504.7
Op. Retract 5.29% 6.08% 132,612 3.99 15 +0.0618% 999.0
Split-Share 6.25% 10.48% 58,404 3.96 12 -0.1177% 943.6
Interest Bearing 8.06% 14.12% 60,114 3.23 3 -1.4615% 880.0
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 6.72% 6.79% 179,536 12.85 71 -0.2755% 811.1
Fixed-Reset 5.36% 5.13% 1,041,096 15.14 12 +0.2111% 1,086.1
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
FIG.PR.A

InterestBearing -4.4000% Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of November 4, based on capital unit NAV of 5.50 and 0.71 capital units per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.40% based on a bid of 7.17 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-31 at 10.00. Closing quote of 7.17-25, 5×17. Day’s ragne of 7.29-55.
BCE.PR.G FixFloat -3.4926%  
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -3.1783% Asset coverage of just under 2.8:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Coverage now of 2.0+:1 based on BAM.A at 21.00 and 2.4 BAM.A held per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 13.88% based on a bid of 12.49 and a hardMaturity 2019-1-10 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.A (17.26% to 2010-9-30) and BNA.PR.B (9.70% to 2016-3-25). Closing quote 12.49-85, 7×7. Day’s range 12.30-13.40.
LBS.PR.A SplitShare -2.7429% Asset coverage of 1.7+:1 as of October 30 according to Brompton Group. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.12% based on a bid of 8.51 and a hardMaturity 2013-11-29 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.51-00, 5×2. No trading.
HSB.PR.D PerpetualDiscount -2.7174% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.10% based on a bid of 17.90 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 17.90-29. Day’s range 17.86-69.
BNS.PR.O PerpetualDiscount -2.5991% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.39% based on a bid of 22.11 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 22.11-60, 5X1. Day’s range of 22.07-89.
BAM.PR.J OpRet -2.4390% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 9.94% based on a bid of 18.40 and a softMaturity 2018-3-30 at 25.00. Compare with BAM.PR.H (9.63% to 2012-3-30), BAM.PR.I (10.42% to 2013-12-30) and BAM.PR.O (10.53% to 2013-6-30). Closing quote of 18.40-50, 3×2. Day’s range of 18.42-85.
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount -2.1396% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.59% based on a bid of 17.38 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 17.38-84, 1×1. Day’s range of 17.36-85.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare +2.1492% Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of October 31 according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 14.60% based on a bid of 8.08 and a hardMaturity 2011-6-30 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.08-34, 14×15. Day’s range of 8.01-40.
BCE.PR.C FixFloat +3.5697%  
SBN.PR.A SplitShare +4.0416% Asset coverage of 1.9+:1 as of October 31 according to Mulvihill. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.40% based on a bid of 9.01 and a hardMaturity 2014-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 9.01-49, 3×10. Day’s range of 9.15-30.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
TD.PR.C FixedReset 593,115 National Bank crossed 150,000 at 24.87; there were five other blocks totalling 50,900 shares. New issue settled today.
TD.PR.M OpRet 220,712 CIBC crossed three blocks of 25,000 each; Nesbitt crossed blocks totalling 100,000; all at 25.10. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.73% based on a bid of 25.01 and a softMaturity 2013-10-30 at 25.00.
RY.PR.L FixedReset 103,925 RBC crossed 12,700 at 24.91. New issue settled Monday.
WFS.PR.A SplitShare 191,800 RBC crossed 155,500 at 8.03, then another 14,400 at 8.40. See above
BMO.PR.I OpRet 75,100 Nesbitt crossed 75,000 at 24.99. Called for redemption.

There were thirty-four other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

TD.PR.C Settles Like a 5-Year

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Monday’s settlement of RY.PR.L provided one data point and here’s another … it looks like we may state fairly conclusively that the market is currently pricing the Fixed Reset issues as if the market price will be $25 at the time of the first call – whether that is due to a call or a reset of the dividend to a market comparable number.

TD.PR.C and some comparators
Ticker Fixed Reset Quote Yield
to
5-year call
Yield
to
limitMaturity
TD.PR.C 5.60% +274bp 25.00-01 5.64% 5.59%
RY.PR.L 5.60% +267bp 24.92-95 5.71% 5.57%
TD.PR.Y 5.10% +168bp 23.92-09 6.13% 4.89%
RY.PR.I 5.00% +193bp 23.61-99 6.42% 5.17%
TD.PR.A 5.00% +196bp 23.80-00 6.27% 5.15%
TD.PR.S 5.00% +160bp 24.05-28 5.94% 4.76%

The issue seems to have been well-received: I updated the issue announcement post with news that the greenshoe had been partially exercised.

November 4, 2008

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Another good day for prefs, with the PerpetualDiscounts again up over a point for the third day in a row. Before anybody gets too excited though … we’ve not yet recovered to October 22 levels and the 6.77% yield is almost 50bp over the September 30 level of 6.29%.

The 6.77% yield is equivalent to 9.48% interest at the standard 1.4x factor, while long corporates are still chugging along in the 7.5% area … so we’re back to a spread of about 200bp. Long corporates are actually down fractionally on the month-to-day and recovery in this market should, logically, now become a major factor in preferred share performance.

On the other hand, the market hasn’t really behaved logically for over a year and a half, so who knows?

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30.
The Fixed-Reset index was added effective 2008-9-5 at that day’s closing value of 1,119.4 for the Fixed-Floater index.
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A
Fixed-Floater 5.32% 5.38% 70,523 15.12 6 +2.4301% 982.4
Floater 6.90% 7.01% 48,965 12.48 2 +1.8248% 505.2
Op. Retract 5.29% 6.10% 131,568 3.99 15 -0.1494% 998.4
Split-Share 6.24% 10.45% 58,457 3.97 12 +1.1492% 944.7
Interest Bearing 7.93% 13.29% 60,778 3.25 3 +2.4349% 893.0
Perpetual-Premium N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Perpetual-Discount 6.70% 6.77% 180,124 12.88 71 +1.0227% 813.3
Fixed-Reset 5.35% 5.10% 892,441 15.18 11 +0.5777% 1,083.8
Major Price Changes
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater -6.3551%  
POW.PR.B PerpetualDiscount -5.1307% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.91% based on a bid of 19.60 and a limitMaturity. Closing quote 19.60-79, 2X3. Day’s range 19.23-20.40.
LFE.PR.A SplitShare -3.8043% Asset coverage of 1.6+:1 as of October 31, according to the company. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 8.74% based on a bid of 8.85 and a hardMaturity 2012-12-1 at 10.00. Closing quote of 8.85-14, 5×5. Day’s range of 9.10-40.
W.PR.H PerpetualDiscount +3.0641% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.54% based on a bid of 18.50 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 18.50-14, 5×5. Day’s range of 18.25-19.40.
MFC.PR.B PerpetualDiscount +3.1501% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.57% based on a bid of 18.01 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 18.01-09, 11×1. Day’s range of 17.66-45.
BCE.PR.R FixFloat +3.2771%  
NA.PR.L PerpetualDiscount +3.3682% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.85% based on a bid of 17.80 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 17.80-25, 13×5. Day’s range of 17.60-00.
CM.PR.P PerpetualDiscount +3.3916% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.12% based on a bid of 19.51 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 19.51-57, 3×5. Day’s range of 18.87-47.
PWF.PR.E PerpetualDiscount +3.4269% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.37% based on a bid of 21.73 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 21.73-74, 11×2. Day’s range of 21.28-73.
GWO.PR.G PerpetualDiscount +3.7190% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.57% based on a bid of 20.08 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 20.08-30, 5×5. Day’s range of 19.60-50.
CM.PR.D PerpetualDiscount +3.7207% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.14% based on a bid of 20.35 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 20.35-43, 5×3. Day’s range of 19.76-44.
STW.PR.A InterestBearing +4.0884% Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of October 30 according to Middlefield. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 11.92% based on a bid of 9.42 and a hardMaturity 2009-12-31 at 10.00. Closing quote of 9.42-54, 4×2. Day’s range of 9.26-44.
BNA.PR.A SplitShare +4.3738% Asset coverage of just under 2.8:1 as of September 30 according to the company. Coverage now of 2.2-:1 based on BAM.A at 22.51 and 2.4 BAM.A held per preferred. Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 17.24% based on a bid of 21.00 and a hardMaturity 2010-9-30 at 25.00. Compare with BNA.PR.B (9.91% to 2016-3-25) and BNA.PR.C (13.39% to 2019-1-10). Closing quote 21.00-99, 16×7. Day’s range 20.12-65.
BCE.PR.G FixFloat +5.2138%  
MFC.PR.C PerpetualDiscount +5.9666% Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.45% based on a bid of 17.76 and a limitMaturity. Closing Quote 17.76-93, 1×1. Day’s range of 17.00-96.
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Volume Notes
CM.PR.A OpRet 89,327 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 4.92% based on a bid of 25.29 and a softMaturity 2011-7-30 at 25.00.
RY.PR.L FixedReset 79,195 New issue, settled yesterday.
BMO.PR.I PerpetualDiscount 76,400 Called for redemption.
TD.PR.O PerpetualDiscount 75,850 Now with a pre-tax bid-YTW of 6.62% based on a bid of 18.49 and a limitMaturity.

There were thirty-eight other index-included $25-pv-equivalent issues trading over 10,000 shares today.

Index Performance: October 2008

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Performance of the HIMIPref™ Indices for October, 2008, was:

Total Return
Index Performance
October 2008
Three Months
to
October 30, 2008
Ratchet N/A N/A
FixFloat -11.76% -12.47%
Floater -34.16% -42.25%
OpRet -3.75% -4.33%
SplitShare -3.86% -9.79%
Interest -16.37% -19.42%
PerpetualPremium -13.96% -14.08%
PerpetualDiscount -7.47% -6.07%
FixedReset -3.68% N/A
Funds (see below for calculations)
CPD -7.22% -7.67%
DPS.UN -9.56% -10.62%
Index
BMO-CM 50 -8.16% -8.96%

Claymore has published NAV and distribution data for its exchange traded fund (CPD) and I have derived the following table:

CPD Return, 1- & 3-month, to October, 2008
Date NAV Distribution Return for Sub-Period Monthly Return
July 31, 2008 16.50 0.00    
August 29 16.91 0.00   +2.48%
Sept 25 16.41 0.2135 -1.69% -2.89%
Sept 30, 2008 16.21   -1.22%
October 31 15.04 0.00   -7.22%
Quarterly Return -7.67%

The DPS.UN NAV for October has been published so we may calculate the September returns (approximately!) for this closed end fund:

DPS.UN NAV Return, October-ish 2008
Date NAV Distribution Return for period
Estimated October Beginning Stub -0.25%
October 1, 2008 18.97    
October 29, 2008 16.96   -10.60%
Estimated October Ending Stub +1.42%
Estimated October Return -9.56%
CPD had a NAV of $16.17 on October 1 and $16.21 on September 30. The estimated October beginning of month stub period return for CPD was therefore -0.25%, which is added to the DPS.UN period return to estimate a return for the period.
CPD had a NAV of $14.83 on October 29 and $15.04 on October 31. The estimated October end of month stub period return for CPD was therefore +1.42%, which is added to the DPS.UN period return to estimate a return for the period.
The October return for DPS.UN’s NAV is therefore the product of three period returns, -0.25%, -10.60% & +1.42%, to arrive at an estimate for the calendar month of -9.56%

Now, to see the DPS.UN quarterly NAV approximate return, we refer to the calculations for August and September:

DPS.UN NAV Returns, three-month-ish to end-October-ish, 2008
August-ish +2.63%
September-ish -3.70%
October-ish -9.56%
Three-months-ish -10.62%