Archive for October, 2018

October 3, 2018

Wednesday, October 3rd, 2018

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.58%, equivalent to 7.25% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.15%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread” is now about 310bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) narrowing from the 315bp reported September 26.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.8135 % 3,219.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 2.8135 % 5,906.7
Floater 3.38 % 3.51 % 38,001 18.54 4 2.8135 % 3,404.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0159 % 3,228.1
SplitShare 4.61 % 4.70 % 54,230 4.76 5 -0.0159 % 3,855.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0159 % 3,007.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.55 % -4.09 % 48,852 0.09 12 -0.0164 % 2,926.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.43 % 5.58 % 61,410 14.47 21 0.1509 % 3,005.3
FixedReset Disc 4.15 % 4.98 % 130,568 15.47 43 0.2326 % 2,605.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 6.08 % 58,368 5.33 27 -0.0298 % 2,990.0
FloatingReset 3.43 % 3.55 % 41,009 5.63 4 0.3215 % 2,886.5
FixedReset Prem 4.84 % 3.81 % 219,218 2.83 34 0.0743 % 2,580.7
FixedReset Bank Non 3.19 % 3.69 % 67,579 0.39 9 0.0769 % 2,578.1
FixedReset Ins Non 4.30 % 5.05 % 87,467 5.40 22 0.0366 % 2,603.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.68
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset Disc -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.46
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.34
Evaluated at bid price : 24.11
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.38
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
PWF.PR.A Floater 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 21.70
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.33
Evaluated at bid price : 23.94
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non 2.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.66
Bid-YTW : 7.06 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 3.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 4.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.54
Evaluated at bid price : 18.54
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 142,250 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.26
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Prem 137,620 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2023-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
TD.PF.H FixedReset Prem 130,393 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.04
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem 91,158 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 76,350 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.31
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Prem 73,298 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2023-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.13
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater Quote: 17.80 – 18.80
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6279

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %

BAM.PR.C Floater Quote: 18.45 – 19.45
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6506

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %

BAM.PF.B FixedReset Disc Quote: 24.11 – 24.75
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.4047

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 23.34
Evaluated at bid price : 24.11
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %

MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 25.03 – 25.54
Spot Rate : 0.5100
Average : 0.2861

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2023-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 23.68 – 24.50
Spot Rate : 0.8200
Average : 0.6375

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.68
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %

PWF.PR.A Floater Quote: 21.95 – 22.49
Spot Rate : 0.5400
Average : 0.3595

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-03
Maturity Price : 21.70
Evaluated at bid price : 21.95
Bid-YTW : 2.95 %

MAPF Portfolio Composition: September, 2018

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018

Turnover remained light in September at 4%.

There is extreme segmentation in the marketplace, with OSFI’s NVCC rule changes in February 2011 having had the effect of splitting the formerly relatively homogeneous Straight Perpetual class of preferreds into three parts:

  • Unaffected Straight Perpetuals
  • DeemedRetractibles explicitly subject to the rules (banks)
  • DeemedRetractibles considered by me, but not (yet!) by the market, to be likely to be explicitly subject to the rules in the future (insurers and insurance holding companies)

This segmentation, and the extreme valuation differences between the segments, has cut down markedly on the opportunities for trading.

To make this more clear, it used to be that there were 70-odd Straight Perpetuals and I was more or less indifferent as to which ones I owned (subject, of course, to issuer concentration concerns and other risk management factors). Thus, if any one of these 70 were to go down in price by – say – $0.25, I would quite often have something in inventory that I’d be willing to swap for it. The segmentation means that I am no longer indifferent; in addition to checking the valuation of a potential buy to other Straights, I also have to check its peer group. This cuts down on the potential for trading.

And, of course, the same segmentation has the same effect on trading opportunities between FixedReset issues.

There is no real hope that this situation will be corrected in the near-term. OSFI has indicated that the long-promised “Draft Definition of Capital” for insurers will not be issued “for public consultation in late 2012 or early 2013”, as they fear that it might encourage speculation in the marketplace. It is not clear why OSFI is so afraid of informed speculation, since the constant speculation in the marketplace is currently less informed than it would be with a little bit of regulatory clarity. While the framework has been updated, the modifications focus on the amount of capital required, not the required characteristics of that capital. However, OSFI has recently indicated that it would support a mechanism similar to the NVCC rule for banks, so we may see some developments as the IAIS deliberations regarding insurance capital continue.

As a result of this delay, I have extended the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies by three years (to 2025-1-31), in the expectation that when OSFI finally does provide clarity, they will allow the same degree of lead-in time for these companies as they did for banks. This had a major effect on the durations of preferred shares subject to the change but, fortunately, not much on their calculated yields as most of these issues were either trading near par when the change was made or were trading at sufficient premium that a par call was expected on economic grounds. However, with the declines in the market over the past nine months, the expected capital gain on redemption of the insurance-issued DeemedRetractibles has become an important component of the calculated yield.

Due to the footdragging by OSFI, I will be extending the DeemedMaturity date for insurance issues by another few years in the near future.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on September 28 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2018-09-28
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 9.1% 4.78% 5.12
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 11.5% 5.59% 14.56
Fixed-Reset Discount 24.4% 5.28% 15.53
Deemed-Retractible 9.2% 7.37% 5.38
FloatingReset 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Premium 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Bank non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Insurance non-NVCC 36.6% 7.71% 5.49
Scraps (Various) 11.1% 6.79% 13.34
Cash -1.8 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 6.62% 9.91
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-3 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: NVCC Status Confirmed and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis.

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue.

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 2.33% and a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 1.55%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2018-09-28
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 0
Pfd-1(low) 0
Pfd-2(high) 26.4%
Pfd-2 33.7%
Pfd-2(low) 30.6%
Pfd-3(high) 3.1%
Pfd-3 4.6%
Pfd-3(low) 2.9%
Pfd-4(high) 0%
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0.6%
Pfd-5 0.0%
Cash -1.8%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
The fund holds a position in AZP.PR.C, which is rated P-5(high) by S&P and is unrated by DBRS; it is included in the Pfd-5(high) total.
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2018-09-28
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 32.6%
$50,000 – $100,000 43.6%
$100,000 – $200,000 23.1%
$200,000 – $300,000 1.0%
>$300,000 1.4%
Cash -1.8%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A similar portfolio composition analysis has been performed on the Claymore Preferred Share ETF (symbol CPD) (and other funds) as of July 31, 2017, and published in the August, 2017, PrefLetter. It is fair to say:

  • MAPF credit quality is much better
  • MAPF liquidity is lower
  • MAPF Yield is higher
  • Weightings
    • MAPF is roughly equally exposed to Straight Perpetuals
      • Much less exposed to PerpetualPremiums
    • Neither portfolio is exposed to Operating Retractibles (there aren’t too many of those any more!)
    • MAPF is more exposed to SplitShares
    • MAPF is less exposed to FixFloat / Floater / Ratchet
    • MAPF is a little higher weighted in FixedResets, but has a greater emphasis on lower-spread issues

New Issue: BNS FixedReset 4.85%+243 NVCC

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018

The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

a domestic public offering of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 40 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 40”).

Scotiabank has agreed to sell 10 million of Preferred Shares Series 40 to a syndicate of underwriters led by Scotia Capital Inc. on a bought deal basis. Scotiabank has granted the Underwriters an option, exercisable in whole or in part up to 48 hours before closing, to purchase up to an additional 2 million Preferred Shares Series 40 at the same offering price.

Scotiabank will issue Preferred Shares Series 40 priced at $25 per share and holders will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly fixed dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank, for the initial period ending on and including January 26, 2024 at an annual rate of $1.2125 per share to yield 4.85% per cent annually.

On January 27, 2024 and on January 27 every five years thereafter, Scotiabank may, at its option, subject to regulatory approval, redeem all or any number of the then outstanding Preferred Shares Series 40 at a redemption price of $25 per share. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a rate equal to 2.43% over the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 40 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 41 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Preferred Shares Series 41”) of Scotiabank on January 27, 2024 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Preferred Shares Series 41 will be entitled to receive a non-cumulative quarterly floating dividend at a rate equal to the 3-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.43%, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of Scotiabank. Holders of Preferred Shares Series 41 will, subject to certain conditions, have the right to convert all or any part of their shares to Preferred Shares Series 40 on January 27, 2029 and on January 27 every five years thereafter.

Closing is expected to occur on October 12, 2018. Scotiabank will make an application to list the Preferred Shares Series 40 as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Net proceeds of the offering will be used by Scotiabank to fund a portion of the redemption of Non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 20 and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 21 announced on September 25, 2018.

The new issue is quite expensive according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

impvol_bns_181002
Click for Big

According to this analysis, the fair value of the new issue on October 2 is 23.43. However, it should be noted that the analysis is forced to do some major extrapolation, as the only other BNS FixedReset NVCC-compliant issues are BNS.PR.E, BNS.PR.G and BNS.PR.H, all of which have Issue Reset Spreads in excess of 400bp.

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to the ‘all issues will be called, or at least exhibit price stability’ hypothesis. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate. The extra cushion implied by an Issue Reset Spread that is well over the market spread is worth something, even if nothing gets called. Or, to put it another way, one can buy a whole lot of downside protection for very little extra money, relative to this issue.

October 2, 2018

Tuesday, October 2nd, 2018
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5860 % 3,130.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5860 % 5,745.1
Floater 3.47 % 3.66 % 36,322 18.19 4 -0.5860 % 3,310.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0873 % 3,228.7
SplitShare 4.61 % 4.69 % 56,054 4.76 5 0.0873 % 3,855.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0873 % 3,008.4
Perpetual-Premium 5.55 % -3.81 % 49,334 0.09 12 -0.0558 % 2,926.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.44 % 5.59 % 61,958 14.46 21 -0.1321 % 3,000.7
FixedReset Disc 4.16 % 5.00 % 130,826 15.42 43 0.0050 % 2,599.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 6.09 % 58,213 5.33 27 -0.0204 % 2,990.9
FloatingReset 3.44 % 3.56 % 40,334 5.63 4 0.6822 % 2,877.3
FixedReset Prem 4.84 % 4.07 % 221,623 2.83 34 0.1879 % 2,578.8
FixedReset Bank Non 3.20 % 3.76 % 67,773 0.39 9 -0.0181 % 2,576.2
FixedReset Ins Non 4.30 % 5.02 % 83,370 4.19 22 0.0174 % 2,602.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.86
Bid-YTW : 3.56 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Prem 9.74 % Just a reversal of yesterday‘s nonsense.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2023-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 4.58 %

Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 209,700 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 23.23
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Prem 143,182 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 23.16
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 142,605 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
RY.PR.Q FixedReset Prem 73,481 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 3.51 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc 70,550 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.95
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Disc 60,245 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
There were 32 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.14 – 20.67
Spot Rate : 0.5300
Average : 0.3294

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.14
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %

W.PR.K FixedReset Prem Quote: 25.60 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4288

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-01-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 4.08 %

SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.60 – 22.98
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2507

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %

BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.25 – 21.53
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1812

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.77 – 20.12
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2554

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 19.77
Evaluated at bid price : 19.77
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %

BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.23 – 23.48
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1555

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-02
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 23.23
Bid-YTW : 4.91 %

October 1, 2018

Monday, October 1st, 2018

Well, that was quick:

The Securities and Exchange Commission announced today that Elon Musk, CEO and Chairman of Silicon Valley-based Tesla, Inc., has agreed to settle the securities fraud charge brought by the SEC against him last week. The SEC also today charged Tesla with failing to have required disclosure controls and procedures relating to Musk’s tweets, a charge that Tesla has agreed to settle. The settlements, which are subject to court approval, will result in comprehensive corporate governance and other reforms at Tesla—including Musk’s removal as Chairman of the Tesla board—and the payment by Musk and Tesla of financial penalties.

Musk and Tesla have agreed to settle the charges against them without admitting or denying the SEC’s allegations. Among other relief, the settlements require that:
•Musk will step down as Tesla’s Chairman and be replaced by an independent Chairman. Musk will be ineligible to be re-elected Chairman for three years;
•Tesla will appoint a total of two new independent directors to its board;
•Tesla will establish a new committee of independent directors and put in place additional controls and procedures to oversee Musk’s communications;
•Musk and Tesla will each pay a separate $20 million penalty. The $40 million in penalties will be distributed to harmed investors under a court-approved process.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6030 % 3,149.4
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.6030 % 5,778.9
Floater 3.45 % 3.65 % 33,620 18.21 4 0.6030 % 3,330.4
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1347 % 3,225.8
SplitShare 4.61 % 4.69 % 54,555 4.76 5 -0.1347 % 3,852.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1347 % 3,005.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.55 % -5.88 % 49,823 0.09 12 0.1019 % 2,928.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.43 % 5.57 % 61,970 14.50 21 0.0599 % 3,004.7
FixedReset Disc 4.17 % 5.01 % 129,204 15.44 43 0.4004 % 2,599.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.17 % 5.99 % 57,727 5.33 27 -0.1410 % 2,991.5
FloatingReset 3.46 % 3.62 % 37,463 5.63 4 0.0737 % 2,857.8
FixedReset Prem 4.85 % 4.04 % 222,034 2.84 34 -0.1314 % 2,574.0
FixedReset Bank Non 3.20 % 3.74 % 67,530 0.39 9 0.1298 % 2,576.6
FixedReset Ins Non 4.30 % 5.08 % 86,097 5.41 22 0.2978 % 2,602.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TD.PF.J FixedReset Prem -9.02 % A nonsensical quote from Nonsense Central, as this issue traded 1200 shares today, all at 25.54 before being quoted at 23.10-25.54 by the Exchange.

I have not checked whether this lamentable state of affairs is due to inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange reporting or inadequate Toronto Stock Exchange supervision of market-makers.

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

CU.PR.I FixedReset Prem -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2020-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 2.87 %
SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 7.37 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 8.15 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.94
Bid-YTW : 7.41 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.18
Evaluated at bid price : 21.18
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 2.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 18.10
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.J FixedReset Prem 107,950 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.50
Bid-YTW : 3.33 %
BMO.PR.D FixedReset Prem 80,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-08-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 77,090 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.65
Evaluated at bid price : 20.65
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
BNS.PR.H FixedReset Prem 76,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-01-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Prem 73,708 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2023-11-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.18
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 52,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 22.07
Evaluated at bid price : 22.72
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
There were 34 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TD.PF.J FixedReset Prem Quote: 23.10 – 25.54
Spot Rate : 2.4400
Average : 1.3610

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %

RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.62 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2408

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 23.62
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %

SLF.PR.E Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.38 – 21.74
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2211

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.38
Bid-YTW : 7.45 %

SLF.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.01 – 22.37
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2601

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %

BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.75 – 21.07
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2204

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2048-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.75
Evaluated at bid price : 20.75
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %

EIT.PR.A SplitShare Quote: 25.00 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2067

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2024-03-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.87 %

DBRS Confirms EFN after Strategic Plan Announced

Monday, October 1st, 2018

Element Fleet Management Corp. has announced:

a customer-centric plan to meaningfully improve financial performance, strengthen and de-risk the Company’s balance sheet, and position the business for growth.

The plan includes:

  • •A series of concrete actions to improve the customer experience and generate an estimated $150 million in run-rate pre-tax operating income improvements in the fleet management business by the end of 2020;
  • •A $150 million investment in the business to achieve those improvements, which will be funded in part by capital retained after a reduction in the Company’s quarterly common share dividend from $0.075 to $0.045, and the introduction of a dividend reinvestment plan;
  • •An agreement, subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions, to purchase the interests in the 19th Capital joint venture that Element does not already own for nominal consideration, and Element plans to undertake an orderly run off of 19thCapital’s assets over the next 36 months. In conjunction with this initiative, Element will recognize an after-tax charge of approximately $360 million in the third quarter reflecting a write down of the carrying value of its remaining investment in 19th Capital;
  • •Strengthening the Company’s investment-grade balance sheet through a $300 million offering of common shares via a bought deal transaction; and
  • •A clear accountability plan, including a Transformation Management Office run by a leading global consulting firm that will bring focus, support and accountability for the duration of the program, as well as regular reporting to track our performance

DBRS has announced that it:

has confirmed the ratings for Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN or the Company), including the Company’s Long-Term Issuer Rating of BBB (high) and Short-Term Issuer Rating of R-2 (high). The trend on all ratings is Stable. The Intrinsic Assessment (IA) for the Company is BBB (high), while its Support Assessment is SA3. As a result, EFN’s final ratings are equalized with its IA.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The ratings consider Element’s action plan following an in-depth and broad review of three distinct workstreams completed by the new executive management team and the Board of Directors that should contribute to better operating performance going forward. Nonetheless, the plan does have execution risks, including the realization of synergies and efficiencies, as well as the successful wind down of 19th Capital without additional losses or costs to Element. The Company’s position as the market leader in North American commercial fleet as well as leading positions in Australia and New Zealand, its low risk balance sheet and well-aligned funding profile support the ratings. The ratings also consider the Company’s reliance on secured forms of wholesale funding, returns that are solid, but lag the peer group at the next rating level and elevated leverage.

The Stable trend reflects DBRS’s expectation that the Company will continue to produce solid earnings from its core fleet business as it executes the strategic plan, while maintaining strong asset performance. The Company’s ample available liquidity and good access to the capital markets are considered in the trend. The Stable trend also considers DBRS’s view that the long-term fundamentals for the commercial fleet industry will remain favorable supported by the continuing trend of large corporates outsourcing the management of their commercial fleets to save costs. Moreover, the increasing volume of data produced by vehicles that may be analyzed to increase driver productivity and the operating efficiency of the fleets requires scalable IT platforms, such as that offered by EFN, further underpinning demand for commercial fleet services.

Affected issues are EFN.PR.A , EFN.PR.C , EFN.PR.E , EFN.PR.G and EFN.PR.I .

HSE on Credit Watch Negative by S&P

Monday, October 1st, 2018

Husky Energy Inc.has announced:

a proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of MEG Energy Corp. (TSX:MEG) (“MEG”) for implied total equity consideration of approximately $3.3 billion. This proposal values MEG at an implied total enterprise value of $6.4 billion, including the assumption of approximately $3.1 billion of net debt.

This caused immediate reaction by Standard & Poor’s:

  • •We are placing our ratings on Husky Energy Inc. on CreditWatch with negative implications, following its announced unsolicited bid to acquire oil sands bitumen producer, MEG Energy Corp.
  • •We are also placing our ‘BBB-‘ global scale and ‘P-2(Low)’ Canada scale preferred share ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, as we would lower them to ‘BB+’ and ‘P-3(High)’, respectively, concurrent with a downgrade on the company to ‘BBB’.
  • •We are assuming Husky’s major shareholder will retain its majority ownership in the company, so we expect the one-notch uplift to its rating, which is supported by this ownership, should remain in effect.
  • •The negative CreditWatch reflects the potential deterioration of Husky’s cash flow and leverage metrics, with the addition of MEG’s existing C$3.6 billion of debt (at June 30, 2018), and the resulting deterioration of the company’s financial risk profile, which could lead to a downgrade.


The CreditWatch is based on the potential deterioration of Husky’s financial risk profile, if the company acquires MEG. The C$3.6 billion of MEG’s debt being assumed will materially weaken Husky’s pro forma cash flow and leverage metrics, and we believe the company’s financial risk profile might deteriorate by one category from our current weighted-average estimate for the 2018-2020 forecast period. At this time, we believe Husky’s major shareholder should retain its ownership position in the company, which would support the continued one-notch uplift to the credit rating. As a result, we believe the rating downside should be limited to one notch.

We expect to resolve the CreditWatch placement when the transaction closes.
This should occur in early 2019.

S&P currently rates the preferreds as P-2(low).

DBRS commented:

Nevertheless, DBRS notes that if Husky’s offer is successful in its current form, the addition of MEG’s assets would be mildly positive for Husky’s business risk profile. The inclusion of MEG’s assets (1) adds to Husky’s size, (2) improves the Company’s proven reserve life index, (3) complements Husky’s other thermal oil developments in Western Canada and (4) enhances Husky’s heavy oil integration plans. Tempering the improvement in the business risk profile is a higher level of asset concentration in Western Canada and a higher proportion of thermal oil in the Company’s production mix.

DBRS notes that Husky’s credit metrics (assuming Husky’s offer is successful in its current form) are modestly negatively affected initially due to the sizable amount of MEG debt that the Company would incur. On a pro forma basis (last 12 months ended June 30, 2018), Husky’s lease-adjusted debt-to-cash flow ratio rises from approximately 1.6 times (x) to 2.3x (outside the “A” range). However, Husky has noted that approximately $200 million in synergies could be realized annually from the acquisition of the MEG assets. Also, the combined entity is expected to generate material free cash flow (cash flow after capital spending and dividends) that can be deployed to reducing net debt and financial leverage. The Company anticipates a net debt-to-cash flow ratio of the combined entity (based on current strip pricing in 2019 for West Texas Intermediate oil of USD 70.50/bbl and a heavy light oil differential in Western Canada of USD 26.26/bbl) to be approximately 1.0x in 2019.

DBRS confirmed the preferreds at Pfd-2(low) on 2017-11-14.

Affected issues are HSE.PR.A, HSE.PR.B, HSE.PR.C, HSE.PR.E and HSE.PR.G.