MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition: February, 2022

Turnover improved to 11% in February. Market volumes have been very low for quite some time, having never really recovered from the usual summer decline.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on February 28, 2022 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2022-2-28
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0% N/A N/A
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 0% N/A N/A
Fixed-Reset Discount 44.7% 4.76% 16.17
Insurance – Straight 0% N/A N/A
FloatingReset 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Premium 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Bank non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Insurance non-NVCC 30.4% 4.17% 17.40
Scraps – Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FixedFloater 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Floater 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – OpRet 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – SplitShare 5.3% 5.28% 2.82
Scraps – PerpPrem 8.2% 5.24% 6.47
Scraps – PerpDisc 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FR Discount 12.2% 5.76% 14.53
Scraps – Insurance Straight 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FloatingReset 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FR Premium 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Bank non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Ins non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
Cash -0.7% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 4.81% 14.97
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
The various “Scraps” indices include issues with a DBRS rating of Pfd-3(high) or lower and issues with an Average Trading Value (calculated with HIMIPref™ methodology, which is relatively complex) of less than $25,000. The issues considered “Scraps” are subdivided into indices which reflect those of the main indices.
DeemedRetractibles were comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company or the regulator. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 in the case of banks or normally in the case of insurers and insurance holding companies, in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See the Deemed Retractible Review: September 2016 for the rationale behind this analysis and IAIS Says No To DeemedRetractions for the recent change in policy with respect to insurers.

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue and by a further five years in December, 2018; the estimate was eliminated in November. However, the distinctions are being kept because it is useful to distinguish insurance issues from others.


The name of this subindex has been changed to “Insurance Straight” as of November, 2020

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 1.67%, a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 0.40% and a constant Canada Prime Rate of 2.45%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2022-2-28
DBRS Rating MAPF Weighting
Pfd-1 0
Pfd-1(low) 0
Pfd-2(high) 48.0%
Pfd-2 9.0%
Pfd-2(low) 26.3%
Pfd-3(high) 3.7%
Pfd-3 6.6%
Pfd-3(low) 3.6%
Pfd-4(high) 3.5%
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0%
Pfd-5 0%
Cash -0.7%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS nor by S&P, but has been included as “Pfd-4(high)” in the above table on the basis of its last S&P rating of P-4(high) and its BB rating from Fitch. A “BB” rating would normally map to Pfd-3, but the company’s disdain for the two major preferred share agencies makes me nervous.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2022-2-28
Average Daily Trading MAPF Weighting
<$50,000 23.2%
$50,000 – $100,000 56.3%
$100,000 – $200,000 17.3%
$200,000 – $300,000 0%
>$300,000 4.0%
Cash -0.7%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

The distribution of Issue Reset Spreads is:

Range MAPF Weight
<100bp 0%
100-149bp 21.4%
150-199bp 28.5%
200-249bp 25.2%
250-299bp 3.6%
300-349bp 2.5%
350-399bp 4.8%
400-449bp 1.3%
450-499bp 0%
500-549bp 0%
550-599bp 0%
>= 600bp 0%
Undefined 12.8%

Distribution of Floating Rate Start Dates is shown in the table below. This is the date of the next adjustment to the dividend rate, if the issue is currently paying a fixed rate for a limited time; which in practice is successive terms of 5 years. Issues that adjust quarterly are considered “Currently Floating”.

Range MAPF Weight
Currently Floating 0%
0-1 Year 21.1%
1-2 Years 0%
2-3 Years 16.8%
3-4 Years 32.1%
4-5 Years 18.4%
5-6 Years 0%
>6 Years 0%
Not Floating Rate 11.6%

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased directly from Hymas Investment Management. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but are not sold with a prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

Market Action

March 4, 2022

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 3.19 % 3.76 % 37,993 19.77 1 0.6283 % 2,738.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -2.0863 % 5,057.7
Floater 3.47 % 3.46 % 56,352 18.54 3 -2.0863 % 2,914.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1909 % 3,640.3
SplitShare 4.66 % 4.16 % 30,932 3.35 6 0.1909 % 4,347.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1909 % 3,391.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.24 % 1.72 % 61,885 0.09 21 -0.0998 % 3,218.6
Perpetual-Discount 4.93 % 5.01 % 61,980 15.47 11 -0.0689 % 3,733.4
FixedReset Disc 4.17 % 4.46 % 115,859 16.45 43 -0.8479 % 2,682.9
Insurance Straight 5.00 % 4.67 % 91,457 15.66 18 0.3605 % 3,583.5
FloatingReset 2.95 % 2.57 % 64,215 20.89 2 -0.1427 % 2,840.8
FixedReset Prem 4.78 % 3.93 % 135,053 2.26 26 -0.1163 % 2,703.2
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.8479 % 2,742.4
FixedReset Ins Non 4.36 % 4.42 % 84,993 16.37 17 -1.9788 % 2,785.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -19.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc -6.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 19.09
Evaluated at bid price : 19.09
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -5.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 13.05
Evaluated at bid price : 13.05
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non -4.91 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset Disc -4.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -4.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc -4.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc -3.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.80
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc -2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.40
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -2.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -2.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 23.56
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.01
Evaluated at bid price : 21.01
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset Prem -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.01
Bid-YTW : 3.37 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.05
Evaluated at bid price : 22.40
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.97
Evaluated at bid price : 23.25
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.64
Evaluated at bid price : 23.45
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.54
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 16.01
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset Disc -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.31
Evaluated at bid price : 21.31
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Premium -1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 19.52
Evaluated at bid price : 19.52
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.69
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.47
Evaluated at bid price : 24.35
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight 2.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.69
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
SLF.PR.D Insurance Straight 2.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 24.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.32
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 19.80
Evaluated at bid price : 19.80
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CM.PR.Y FixedReset Prem 154,668 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.43
Bid-YTW : 2.91 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Prem 77,566 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Prem 52,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
MFC.PR.R FixedReset Ins Non 29,267 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-04-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Prem 21,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 2.92 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Prem 15,548 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 23.66
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
There were 5 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 17.77 – 21.96
Spot Rate : 4.1900
Average : 2.2799

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 17.77
Evaluated at bid price : 17.77
Bid-YTW : 5.53 %

FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.09 – 20.09
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.5838

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 19.09
Evaluated at bid price : 19.09
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 20.55 – 21.55
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6242

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %

BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.05 – 24.05
Spot Rate : 2.0000
Average : 1.6416

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %

BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc Quote: 22.42 – 23.60
Spot Rate : 1.1800
Average : 0.8400

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 22.03
Evaluated at bid price : 22.42
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 22.05 – 23.05
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.7654

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-04
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

Issue Comments

FFH.PR.K To Reset At 5.045%

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited has announced:

that it has determined the fixed dividend rate on its Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series K (“Series K Shares”) (TSX: FFH.PR.K) for the five years commencing April 1, 2022 and ending March 31, 2027. The fixed quarterly dividends on the Series K Shares during that period, if and when declared, will be paid at an annual rate of 5.045% (C$0.315313 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series K Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 pm (Toronto time) on March 16, 2022, to convert all or part of their Series K Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series L (“Series L Shares”), effective March 31, 2022. The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series L Shares will be paid at an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 3.51% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the April 1, 2022 to June 29, 2022 dividend period for the Series L Shares will be 1.01712% (4.12500% on an annualized basis) and the dividend for such dividend period, if and when declared, will be C$0.25428 per share, payable on June 29, 2022.

Holders of Series K Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series K Shares into Series L Shares. Holders of the Series K Shares who do not elect to convert their shares by the conversion deadline will retain their Series K Shares and will receive the fixed-rate dividend as described above (subject to the automatic conversion features described below).

As provided in the share conditions of the Series K Shares, (i) if Fairfax determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series K Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, all remaining Series K Shares will be automatically converted into Series L Shares on a one-for-one basis effective March 31, 2022; and (ii) if Fairfax determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series L Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, no Series K Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series L Shares. There are currently 9,500,000 Series K Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series L Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series L Shares is subject to Fairfax fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series L Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “FFH.PR.L”.

FFH.PR.K was issued as a FixedReset, 5.00%+351, that commenced trading 2012-3-21 after being announced 2012-3-12. In 2017 the issue reset to 4.671%; I recommended against conversion; and there was no conversion.

Issue Comments

BPO.PR.E To Reset At 5.496%

Brookfield Office Properties Inc., a subsidiary of Brookfield Property Partners L.P. has announced:

the reset dividend rate on its …Class AAA Preference Shares, Series EE (“Series EE Shares”) (TSX: BPO.PR.E).

Series EE Shares

If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series EE Shares for the five years commencing April 1, 2022 and ending March 31, 2027 will be paid at an annual rate of 5.496% ($0.3435 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series EE Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 15, 2022, to convert all or part of their Series EE Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Class AAA Preference Shares, Series FF (the “Series FF Shares”), effective March 31, 2022.

The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series FF Shares have an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 3.96% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate for the April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022 dividend period for the Series FF Shares will be 1.14186% (4.58% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.285465 per share, payable on June 30, 2022.

Holders of Series EE Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series EE Shares into Series FF Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series EE Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series EE Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, all remaining Series EE Shares will be automatically converted into Series FF Shares on a one-for-one basis effective March 31, 2022; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series FF Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, no Series EE Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series FF Shares. There are currently 11,000,000 Series EE Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series FF Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series FF Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series FF Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “BPO.PR.F”.

BPO.PR.E was issued as a FixedReset, 5.10%+396M510, that commenced trading 2017-2-17 after being announced 2017-2-9. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Issue Comments

BPO.PR.P To Reset At 4.536%

Brookfield Office Properties Inc., a subsidiary of Brookfield Property Partners L.P., has announced:

the reset dividend rate on its Class AAA Preference Shares, Series P (“Series P Shares”) (TSX: BPO.PR.P

Series P Shares

If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series P Shares for the five years commencing April 1, 2022 and ending March 31, 2027 will be paid at an annual rate of 4.536% ($0.2835 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series P Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 15, 2022, to convert all or part of their Series P Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Class AAA Preference Shares, Series Q (the “Series Q Shares”), effective March 31, 2022.

The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series Q Shares have an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 3.0% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate for the April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022 dividend period for the Series Q Shares will be 0.90252% (3.62% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.22563 per share, payable on June 30, 2022.

Holders of Series P Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series P Shares into Series Q Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series P Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series P Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, all remaining Series P Shares will be automatically converted into Series Q Shares on a one-for-one basis effective March 31, 2022; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series Q Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, no Series P Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series Q Shares. There are currently 12,000,000 Series P Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series Q Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series Q Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series Q Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “BPO.PR.Q”.

BPO.PR.P was issued as a FixedReset, 5.15%+300, that commenced trading 2010-10-21 after being announced 2010-10-13. The issue reset to 4.161% in 2016; I recommended against conversion; and there was no conversion.

Market Action

March 3, 2022

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 3.21 % 3.79 % 39,347 19.75 1 -1.0875 % 2,720.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.3951 % 5,165.5
Floater 3.40 % 3.43 % 58,826 18.61 3 -1.3951 % 2,976.9
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1577 % 3,633.4
SplitShare 4.66 % 4.26 % 31,250 3.35 6 -0.1577 % 4,339.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1577 % 3,385.5
Perpetual-Premium 5.23 % 1.06 % 62,736 0.09 21 0.2416 % 3,221.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.93 % 5.00 % 62,828 15.40 11 -0.4078 % 3,736.0
FixedReset Disc 4.13 % 4.40 % 115,561 16.52 43 1.3697 % 2,705.8
Insurance Straight 5.02 % 4.69 % 91,991 15.60 18 0.2979 % 3,570.6
FloatingReset 2.95 % 2.57 % 66,846 20.89 2 -0.8487 % 2,844.9
FixedReset Prem 4.78 % 3.78 % 135,526 2.03 26 0.3014 % 2,706.4
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.3697 % 2,765.9
FixedReset Ins Non 4.28 % 4.39 % 84,368 16.56 17 -0.4284 % 2,842.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -6.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc -3.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset Ins Non -3.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.48
Evaluated at bid price : 22.74
Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset Disc -2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 19.32
Evaluated at bid price : 19.32
Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
BAM.PR.K Floater -2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 13.80
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 17.55
Evaluated at bid price : 17.55
Bid-YTW : 2.57 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.43
Evaluated at bid price : 23.24
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.60
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.40
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 13.90
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 3.43 %
NA.PR.E FixedReset Disc -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.32
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
IAF.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
PVS.PR.J SplitShare -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2028-02-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.89
Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Prem -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
BAM.PR.E Ratchet -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 14.83
Evaluated at bid price : 14.83
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
MFC.PR.Q FixedReset Ins Non -1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.88
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.29
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
CU.PR.J Perpetual-Premium -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 24.37
Evaluated at bid price : 24.75
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Premium 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.75
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
SLF.PR.D Insurance Straight 1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.36
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Premium 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2026-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.67
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
IAF.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 24.25
Evaluated at bid price : 24.66
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
CU.PR.I FixedReset Prem 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.43
Bid-YTW : 2.90 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.74
Evaluated at bid price : 24.05
Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount 2.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 24.51
Evaluated at bid price : 24.74
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.17
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 2.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 24.18
Evaluated at bid price : 24.55
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
BAM.PF.I FixedReset Prem 3.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.10
Bid-YTW : -15.59 %
BAM.PF.H FixedReset Prem 3.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2025-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.95
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset Disc 15.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc 16.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.39
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 56.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Premium 105,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 24.88
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 40,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
BMO.PR.C FixedReset Prem 38,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.03
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TD.PF.M FixedReset Prem 36,035 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.07
Bid-YTW : 3.45 %
GWO.PR.G Insurance Straight 30,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2022-04-02
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.16
Bid-YTW : -7.45 %
CM.PR.Y FixedReset Prem 29,976 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2024-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.40
Bid-YTW : 2.96 %
There were 20 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.E Insurance Straight Quote: 25.58 – 32.99
Spot Rate : 7.4100
Average : 4.0318

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2026-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.58
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %

BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.05 – 24.06
Spot Rate : 2.0100
Average : 1.2486

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %

BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 13.80 – 15.50
Spot Rate : 1.7000
Average : 0.9847

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 13.80
Evaluated at bid price : 13.80
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 19.25 – 20.25
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6635

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 19.25
Evaluated at bid price : 19.25
Bid-YTW : 5.23 %

CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.60 – 24.88
Spot Rate : 1.2800
Average : 0.9825

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 23.30
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 15.85 – 16.75
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.7296

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2052-03-03
Maturity Price : 15.85
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

Issue Comments

BAM.PF.I To Reset To 5.386%

Brookfield Asset Management Inc has announced it has:

determined the fixed dividend on its Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 46 (“Series 46 Shares”) (TSX: BAM.PF.I) for the five years commencing April 1, 2022 and ending March 31, 2027.

Series 46 Shares and Series 47 Shares

If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series 46 Shares during the five years commencing April 1, 2022 will be paid at an annual rate of 5.386% ($0.336625 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series 46 Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 16, 2022, to convert all or part of their Series 46 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 47 (the “Series 47 Shares”), effective March 31, 2022. The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series 47 Shares will be paid at an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 3.85% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022 dividend period for the Series 47 Shares will be 1.11319% (4.465% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.2782975 per share, payable on June 30, 2022.

Holders of Series 46 Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series 46 Shares into Series 47 Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series 46 Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 46 Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, all remaining Series 46 Shares will be automatically converted into Series 47 Shares on a one-for-one basis effective March 31, 2022; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 47 Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, no Series 46 Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series 47 Shares. There are currently 11,740,797 Series 46 Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 47 Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 47 Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX.

BAM.PF.I was issued as a FixedReset, 4.80%+385M480 that commenced trading 2016-11-18 after being announced 2016-11-10. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is been assigned to the FixedReset (premium) subindex.

Issue Comments

BAM.PR.T To Reset At 3.846%

Brookfield Asset Management Inc has announced:

that it has determined the fixed dividend rate on its Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 26 (“Series 26 Shares”) (TSX: BAM.PR.T) for the five years commencing April 1, 2022 and ending March 31, 2027,

Series 26 Shares and Series 27 Shares

If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series 26 Shares during the five years commencing April 1, 2022 will be paid at an annual rate of 3.846% ($0.240375 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series 26 Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on March 16, 2022, to convert all or part of their Series 26 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 27 (the “Series 27 Shares”), effective March 31, 2022. The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series 27 Shares will be paid at an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 2.31% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the April 1, 2022 to June 30, 2022 dividend period for the Series 27 Shares will be 0.72925% (2.925% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.1823125 per share, payable on June 30, 2022.

Holders of Series 26 Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series 26 Shares into Series 27 Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series 26 Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 26 Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, all remaining Series 26 Shares will be automatically converted into Series 27 Shares on a one-for-one basis effective March 31, 2022; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 27 Shares outstanding after March 31, 2022, no Series 26 Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series 27 Shares. There are currently 9,770,928 Series 26 Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 27 Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 27 Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX.

BAM.PR.T was issued as a FixedReset, 4.50%+231, that commenced trading 2010-10-29 after being announced 2010-10-21. In 2017 it reset to 3.471%; I recommended against conversion; and there was no conversion.

Issue Comments

Redemption of TRP.PR.K Considered

TC Energy has announced:

that TransCanada Trust (the Trust), a wholly-owned financing trust subsidiary of TransCanada PipeLines Limited (TCPL), is considering an offering of subordinated trust notes (Trust Notes), guaranteed on a subordinated basis by TCPL, under the Trust’s short form base shelf prospectus dated Feb. 26, 2021.

If a successful offering is completed, the Company intends to use the proceeds to redeem its issued and outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Minimum Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series 15 (TSX:TRP.PR.K) pursuant to their terms, and pending such redemption, to reduce short-term indebtedness as well as for general corporate purposes. There is no certainty that the Trust will ultimately complete the offering being considered or as to the timing or terms on which such an offering might be completed.

TRP.PR.K is a FixedReset, 4.90%+385M490, that commenced trading 2016-11-21 after being announced 2016-11-14. It has been tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedReset (Premium) subindex.

Thanks to Assiduous Reader CanSiamCyp for bringing this to my attention.

Update, 2022-3-11: The Trust Note offering was successful.

TC Energy Corporation (TSX, NYSE: TRP) (TC Energy or the Company) today announced that TransCanada Trust (the Trust), a wholly-owned financing trust subsidiary of TransCanada PipeLines Limited (TCPL), has closed an offering of U.S. $800 million of 5.600% subordinated Trust Notes, Series 2022-A due March 7, 2082 (Trust Notes), guaranteed on a subordinated basis by TCPL. The Trust Notes were offered through a syndicate of underwriters, co-led by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and MUFG Securities Americas Inc., under the Trust’s short form base shelf prospectus dated Feb. 26, 2021, as supplemented by a prospectus supplement dated March 2, 2022.

The Company intends to use the proceeds to redeem its issued and outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Minimum Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series 15 (TSX:TRP.PR.K) pursuant to their terms, and pending such redemption, to reduce short-term indebtedness as well as for general corporate purposes.

Canada Prime

BoC Hikes Overnight to 0.50%; Prime Follows

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

increased its target for the overnight rate to ½ %, with the Bank Rate at ¾ % and the deposit rate at ½ %. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant until such time as it becomes appropriate to allow the size of its balance sheet to decline.

The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty. Prices for oil and other commodities have risen sharply. This will add to inflation around the world, and negative impacts on confidence and new supply disruptions could weigh on global growth. Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid and we are following events closely.

Global economic data has come in broadly in line with projections in the Bank’s January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 more quickly than expected, although the virus continues to circulate and the possibility of new variants remains a concern. Demand is robust, particularly in the United States. Global supply bottlenecks remain challenging, although there are indications that some constraints have eased.

Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, the recovery in Canada’s labour market suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.

CPI inflation is currently at 5.1%, as expected in January, and remains well above the Bank’s target range. Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation is increasing the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement increases in the policy interest rate. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.

Prime followed: