MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Composition: May, 2016

Turnover in May was modest at about 5%.

There is extreme segmentation in the marketplace, with OSFI’s NVCC rule changes in February 2011 having had the effect of splitting the formerly relatively homogeneous Straight Perpetual class of preferreds into three parts:

  • Unaffected Straight Perpetuals
  • DeemedRetractibles explicitly subject to the rules (banks)
  • DeemedRetractibles considered by me, but not (yet!) by the market, to be likely to be explicitly subject to the rules in the future (insurers and insurance holding companies)

This segmentation, and the extreme valuation differences between the segments, has cut down markedly on the opportunities for trading.

To make this more clear, it used to be that there were 70-odd Straight Perpetuals and I was more or less indifferent as to which ones I owned (subject, of course, to issuer concentration concerns and other risk management factors). Thus, if any one of these 70 were to go down in price by – say – $0.25, I would quite often have something in inventory that I’d be willing to swap for it. The segmentation means that I am no longer indifferent; in addition to checking the valuation of a potential buy to other Straights, I also have to check its peer group. This cuts down on the potential for trading.

And, of course, the same segmentation has the same effect on trading opportunities between FixedReset issues.

There is no real hope that this situation will be corrected in the near-term. OSFI has indicated that the long-promised “Draft Definition of Capital” for insurers will not be issued “for public consultation in late 2012 or early 2013”, as they fear that it might encourage speculation in the marketplace. It is not clear why OSFI is so afraid of informed speculation, since the constant speculation in the marketplace is currently less informed than it would be with a little bit of regulatory clarity. While the framework has been updated, the modifications focus on the amount of capital required, not the required characteristics of that capital.

As a result of this delay, I have extended the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies by three years (to 2025-1-31), in the expectation that when OSFI finally does provide clarity, they will allow the same degree of lead-in time for these companies as they did for banks. This had a major effect on the durations of preferred shares subject to the change but, fortunately, not much on their calculated yields as most of these issues were either trading near par when the change was made or were trading at sufficient premium that a par call was expected on economic grounds. However, with the declines in the market over the past nine months, the expected capital gain on redemption of the insurance-issued DeemedRetractibles has become an important component of the calculated yield.

Due to the footdragging by OSFI, I will be extending the DeemedMaturity date for insurance issues by another two years in the near future.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on February 29 was as follows:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2016-5-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0% N/A N/A
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 10.2% 5.40% 14.87
Fixed-Reset 62.2% 7.89% 9.89
Deemed-Retractible 2.9% 6.46% 7.02
FloatingReset 14.1% 8.01% 11.27
Scraps (Various) 9.5% 7.17% 12.82
Cash +1.1% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 7.46% 10.68
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or 2025-1-3 (insurers and insurance holding companies), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See OSFI Does Not Grandfather Extant Tier 1 Capital, CM.PR.D, CM.PR.E, CM.PR.G: NVCC Status Confirmed and the January, February, March and June, 2011, editions of PrefLetter for the rationale behind this analysis. (all recent editions have a short summary of the argument included in the “DeemedRetractible” section)

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue.

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 0.79% and a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 0.54%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2016-05-31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 0 (0)
Pfd-1(low) 0 (0)
Pfd-2(high) 29.0%
Pfd-2 36.9%
Pfd-2(low) 23.5%
Pfd-3(high) 4.6%
Pfd-3 2.4%
Pfd-3(low) 1.9%
Pfd-4(high) 0% (0)
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0.7%
Pfd-5 0.0%
Cash +1.1%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
The fund holds a position in AZP.PR.B / AZP.PR.C, which is rated P-5(high) by S&P and is unrated by DBRS
A position held in NPI.PR.C is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3(high)” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3(high).
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-3” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-3.
A position held in BIP.PR.A is not rated by DBRS, but has been included as “Pfd-2(low)” in the above table on the basis of its S&P rating of P-2(low).

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2016-05-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 1.4%
$50,000 – $100,000 35.4%
$100,000 – $200,000 56.5%
$200,000 – $300,000 2.8%
>$300,000 2.7%
Cash +1.1%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased either directly from Hymas Investment Management or through a brokerage account at Odlum Brown Limited. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

A similar portfolio composition analysis has been performed on the Claymore Preferred Share ETF (symbol CPD) (and other funds) as of August 31, 2012, and published in the October (mainly methodology), November (most funds), and December (ZPR) 2012, PrefLetter. While direct comparisons are difficult due to the introduction of the DeemedRetractible class of preferred share (see above) it is fair to say:

  • MAPF credit quality is better
  • MAPF liquidity is a bit lower
  • MAPF Yield is higher
  • Weightings
    • MAPF is less exposed to Straight Perpetuals (including DeemedRetractibles)
    • MAPF is less exposed to Operating Retractibles
    • MAPF is more exposed to SplitShares
    • MAPF is less exposed to FixFloat / Floater / Ratchet
    • MAPF is overweighted in FixedResets
Market Action

June 3, 2016

Jobs, jobs … whoopsy!

The U.S. economy looks to be in danger of losing its main pillar as employers throttled back hiring in May to the lowest level in almost six years.

The slowdown — payrolls rose by 38,000 after a downwardly revised 123,000 in April — raised questions about the ability of consumers to keep spending at a good clip. It also cast doubts on Federal Reserve policy makers’ intentions to raise interest rates soon.

The deceleration in the labor market was widespread, with industries from construction and manufacturing to temporary-help services cutting workers.

Unemployment did drop, to an almost nine-year low of 4.7 percent last month from 5 percent in April. But even that was bad news as the decline was mainly because more Americans dropped out of the labor force rather than from an increase in employment.

In a sign that the jobs market may remain weak, the Institute for Supply Management reported that American service providers expanded in May at the slowest pace in more than two years. Its measure of services employment dropped to its lowest since February 2014.

About the only bright spot in the report was worker pay. Average hourly earnings, rose by 0.2 percent in May after a 0.4 percent gain in April that was a bit stronger than initially reported. Pay increased 2.5 percent over the 12 months ended in May.

This, naturally enough, dampens expectations for a Fed hike:

The argument for a June interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve has evaporated.

Economists and investors largely agreed that a disappointing employment report for May — the U.S. economy added just 38,000 new jobs — all but eliminated the chance that Fed officials would tighten policy when they meet June 14-15 in Washington, and may make it difficult for them to raise in July.

Odds of a June hike implied by futures trading, which had risen as high as 34 percent in late May as Fed officials hinted at their eagerness to raise rates, tumbled to just 4 percent following the employment report. The odds are based on prices in federal funds futures contracts.

And, perhaps on a related note, the amount of negative yield debt is increasing:

Negative-yielding government debt has risen above $10tn for the first time, enveloping an increasingly large part of the financial markets after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper.

The amount of sovereign debt trading with a sub-zero yield climbed 5 per cent in May from a month earlier to $10.4tn, buoyed by rising bond prices in Italy, Japan, Germany and France, according to rating agency Fitch. Yields fall as the price of the underlying bonds climbs.

The ascent of the negative yield, which first affected only the shortest maturing notes from highly rated sovereigns, has encompassed seven-year German Bunds and 10-year Japanese government bonds as both the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan have cut benchmark interest rates and launched bond-buying programmes.

On Wednesday the ECB left its main deposit rate for bank reserves unchanged at minus 0.4 per cent.

Unwinding this easy-money is going to be interesting:

Lurking in the bond market is a $1 trillion reason for the Federal Reserve to go slow on interest-rate increases.

That’s how much bondholders stand to lose if Treasury yields rise unexpectedly by 1 percentage point, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate. A hit of that magnitude would exceed the realized losses since the financial crisis on mortgage bonds without government backing, Goldman Sachs analysts Marty Young and Charles Himmelberg wrote in a note published today.

There’s been some loss of face for the US government’s regulatory extortion squad:

The U.S. government has been made several of these unusual repayments in the aftermath of its historic pursuit of insider trading, which led to 80 convictions, brought down at least five hedge funds and resulted in more than $2 billion in payments from defendants.

Fourteen of those convictions have now been overturned — including two that were struck down by an appeals court in 2014, opening the door for the victors and others to claw back penalties and fines from the Justice Department and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The government has now handed back more than $40 million in all, including to three individuals whose convictions were overturned and two of the hedge funds where they worked.

The refunds are among several setbacks for the government recently in its insider-trading crackdown. Earlier this year, an appeals court temporarily released convicted stock trader Douglas Whitman from a California halfway house after he argued that his conduct may not have been illegal, depending on how the U.S. Supreme Court rules in another pending insider-trading case.

Five others convicted of insider trading, including former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. director Rajat Gupta, have sought reviews of their cases.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0320 % 1,673.5
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0320 % 3,057.1
Floater 4.54 % 4.61 % 64,181 16.14 3 -0.0320 % 1,761.8
OpRet 4.88 % -0.61 % 46,540 0.08 1 -0.2779 % 2,827.9
SplitShare 4.90 % 5.14 % 81,368 4.70 7 -0.0231 % 3,324.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0231 % 2,594.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 3.54 % 79,812 0.09 9 0.2007 % 2,616.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.39 % 5.50 % 110,101 14.62 28 0.2864 % 2,719.4
FixedReset 5.10 % 4.66 % 163,460 14.32 87 -0.0451 % 2,003.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 5.36 % 128,646 4.97 33 -0.0240 % 2,699.5
FloatingReset 3.20 % 5.25 % 26,200 5.24 17 -1.9133 % 2,080.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset -28.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 9.32
Evaluated at bid price : 9.32
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset -10.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 9.35
Evaluated at bid price : 9.35
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
TRP.PR.I FloatingReset -3.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 11.20
Evaluated at bid price : 11.20
Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset -2.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 6.81 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.11
Bid-YTW : 5.98 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 11.46
Evaluated at bid price : 11.46
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 15.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.00
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 13.90
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 20.71
Evaluated at bid price : 20.71
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 23.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.78 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 14.30
Evaluated at bid price : 14.30
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.86
Evaluated at bid price : 19.86
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 13.52
Evaluated at bid price : 13.52
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 22.58
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 15.60
Evaluated at bid price : 15.60
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.34
Bid-YTW : 9.46 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 2.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 23.32
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
HSE.PR.G FixedReset 2.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.99
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 142,332 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 22.48
Evaluated at bid price : 22.79
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 100,891 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 10.36
Evaluated at bid price : 10.36
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 94,671 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 22.45
Evaluated at bid price : 22.76
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 94,281 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.71
Bid-YTW : 10.20 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 80,961 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 18.61
Evaluated at bid price : 18.61
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BNS.PR.A FloatingReset 72,063 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.Q FloatingReset Quote: 9.32 – 13.00
Spot Rate : 3.6800
Average : 2.0883

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 9.32
Evaluated at bid price : 9.32
Bid-YTW : 5.81 %

TRP.PR.F FloatingReset Quote: 13.90 – 14.90
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6346

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 13.90
Evaluated at bid price : 13.90
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.99 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 1.0100
Average : 0.7024

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.99
Evaluated at bid price : 19.99
Bid-YTW : 5.48 %

TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 9.35 – 10.47
Spot Rate : 1.1200
Average : 0.8416

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 9.35
Evaluated at bid price : 9.35
Bid-YTW : 4.86 %

TRP.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.15 – 19.71
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3927

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-03
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 24.71 – 25.23
Spot Rate : 0.5200
Average : 0.3727

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.71
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %

Issue Comments

SJR.PR.A To Reset To 2.791%

Shaw Communications Inc. has announced:

that it has given the registered shareholder of its Cumulative Redeemable Rate Reset Class 2 Preferred Shares, Series A (the “Series A Shares”) notices of the conversion right and dividend rates.

Beginning on May 31, 2016 and ending on June 15, 2016 holders of the Series A Shares will have the right to elect to convert any or all of their Series A Shares into an equal number of Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate Class 2 Preferred Shares, Series B (the “Series B Shares”).

If Shaw does not receive an Election Notice from a holder of Series A Shares during the time fixed therefor, then the Series A Shares shall be deemed not to have been converted (except in the case of an Automatic Conversion). Holders of the Series A Shares and the Series B Shares will have the opportunity to convert their shares again on June 30, 2021, and every five years thereafter as long as the shares remain outstanding.

Effective June 30, 2016, the Annual Fixed Dividend Rate for the Series A Shares was set for the next five year period at 2.791%. Effective June 30, 2016, the Floating Quarterly Dividend for the Series B Shares was set for the first Quarterly Floating Rate Period (being the period from and including June 30, 2016 to but excluding September 30, 2016) at 2.539%. The Floating Quarterly Dividend Rate will be reset every quarter.

The Series A Shares are issued in “book entry only” form and, as such, the sole registered holder of the Series A Shares is the Canadian Depository for Securities Limited (“CDS”). All rights of beneficial holders of Series A Shares must be exercised through CDS or the CDS participant through which the Series A Shares are held. The deadline for the registered shareholder to provide notice of exercise of the right to convert Series A Shares into Series B Shares is 3:00 p.m. (MT) / 5:00 p.m. (ET) on June 15, 2016. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid. As such, holders of Series A Shares who wish to exercise their right to convert their shares should contact their broker or other intermediary for more information and it is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide the broker or other intermediary with time to complete the necessary steps.

After June 15, 2016, (i) if Shaw determines that there would remain outstanding on June 30, 2016, fewer than 1,000,000 Series A Shares, all remaining Series A Shares will be automatically converted into Series B Shares on a one-for one basis effective June 30, 2016; or (ii) if Shaw determines that there would remain outstanding after June 30, 2016, fewer than 1,000,000 Series B Shares, no Series A Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series B Shares effective June 30, 2016. There are currently 12,000,000 Series A Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series B Shares effective on conversion. Listing of the Series B Shares is subject to the Shaw fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and on approval, the Series B Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol SJR.PR.B. The Series A Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol SJR.PR.A.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series A Shares and the Series B Shares, see Shaw’s prospectus supplement dated May 20, 2011 which is available on sedar.com.

SJR.PR.A is a FixedReset 4.50%+200, that commenced trading 2011-5-31 after being announced 2011-5-18.

The new rate therefore represents a 38% cut in dividends.

As noted, the deadline to notify the company is 5 p.m. (ET) on June 15, 2016.; brokers will have internal deadlines a day or two in advance.

I will post a recommendation regarding whether or not to convert closer to the deadline.

Issue Comments

BPO.PR.N To Reset To 3.782%

Brookfield Office Properties Inc., a subsidiary of Brookfield Property Partners, has announced:

that it has determined the fixed dividend rate on its Class AAA Preference Shares, Series N (“Series N Shares”) (TSX: BPO.PR.N) for the five years commencing July 1, 2016 and ending June 30, 2021. If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series N Shares during that period will be paid at an annual rate of 3.782% ($0.236375 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series N Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 15, 2016, to convert all or part of their Series N Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Class AAA Preference Shares, Series O (the “Series O Shares”), effective June 30, 2016.

The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series O Shares have an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 3.07% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the July 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016 dividend period for the Series O Shares will be 0.91244% (3.62% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.22811 per share, payable on September 30, 2016.

Holders of Series N Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series N Shares into Series O Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series N Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series N Shares outstanding after June 30, 2016, all remaining Series N Shares will be automatically converted into Series O Shares on a one-for-one basis effective June 30, 2016; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series O Shares outstanding after June 30, 2016, no Series N Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series O Shares. There are currently 11,000,000 Series N Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series O Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series O Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series O Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “BPO.PR.O”.

BPO.PR.N is a FixedReset 6.15%+307, that commenced trading 2010-1-20 after being announced 2010-1-11. The issue attracted some unfavourable comment on issue due to the relatively long call lock-out period – which shows complete misunderstanding of the investment impact of an issuer call option, but we’ll ignore that.

The new rate therefore represents a 39% cut in dividends.

As noted, the deadline to notify the company is 5 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 15, 2016.; brokers will have internal deadlines a day or two in advance.

I will post a recommendation regarding whether or not to convert closer to the deadline.

Issue Comments

BAM.PR.R To Reset To 3.014%

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. has announced:

that it has determined the fixed dividend rate on its Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 24 (“Series 24 Shares”) (TSX: BAM.PR.R) for the five years commencing July 1, 2016 and ending June 30, 2021. If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series 24 Shares during that period will be paid at an annual rate of 3.014% ($0.188375 per share per quarter). The implied yield on the Series 24 Shares based on the new fixed dividend rate that will apply for the five years commencing July 1, 2016 and today’s closing price for the Series 24 Shares is approximately 5.6%.

Holders of Series 24 Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 15, 2016, to convert all or part of their Series 24 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Class A Preference Shares, Series 25 (the “Series 25 Shares”), effective June 30, 2016.

The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series 25 Shares will be paid at an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 2.30% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the July 1, 2016 to September 30, 2016 dividend period for the Series 25 Shares will be 0.71861% (2.851% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.1796525 per share, payable on September 30, 2016.

Holders of Series 24 Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series 24 Shares into Series 25 Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series 24 Shares, (i) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 24 Shares outstanding after June 30, 2016, all remaining Series 24 Shares will be automatically converted into Series 25 Shares on a one-for-one basis effective June 30, 2016; and (ii) if Brookfield determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 25 Shares outstanding after June 30, 2016, no Series 24 Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series 25 Shares. There are currently 10,970,000 Series 24 Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 25 Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 25 Shares is subject to Brookfield fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series 25 Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “BAM.PR.S”.

BAM.PR.R is a FixedReset, 5.40%+230, that commenced trading 2010-1-14 after being announced 2010-1-5.

The new rate therefore represents a 44% cut in dividends. Ouch!

As noted, the deadline to notify the company is 5 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 15, 2016.; brokers will have internal deadlines a day or two in advance.

I will post a recommendation regarding whether or not to convert closer to the deadline.

Market Action

June 2, 2016

There is growing fear that Canadian housing is a momentum play:

The Bank of Canada is concerned that the acceleration in housing prices in Toronto and Vancouver may be partly due to purchases based solely on the expectation that prices will keep going up, Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said on Thursday.

Schembri said that Canadians moving away from resource-producing regions to the major cities of Toronto and Vancouver in order to find jobs has created a huge demand for housing in those cities, driving prices up as supply remains relatively limited.

But he expressed concern that such fundamentals are not the only reason for rising prices.

“The concern that we have at the Bank of Canada is these price increases may reflect in part the fact that certain people (are) buying housing on (speculation), expecting this price increase to continue,” said Schembri.

“People should not be buying housing based on the expectation these prices are going to continue” as the demand from the influx of workers into those regions will not continue at the same rate, Schembri said.

He was speaking during a question-and-answer session following a presentation on the outlook for the economy.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.1698 % 1,674.0
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.1698 % 3,058.0
Floater 4.53 % 4.59 % 61,290 16.17 3 -1.1698 % 1,762.4
OpRet 4.86 % -4.12 % 46,260 0.08 1 0.0000 % 2,835.8
SplitShare 4.90 % 5.02 % 82,104 4.70 7 0.2140 % 3,325.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2140 % 2,594.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.63 % 4.83 % 80,753 0.09 9 -0.0436 % 2,611.4
Perpetual-Discount 5.40 % 5.51 % 110,887 14.60 28 -0.0169 % 2,711.6
FixedReset 5.09 % 4.65 % 162,745 7.44 87 -0.3804 % 2,003.9
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 5.31 % 129,686 4.98 33 0.0454 % 2,700.1
FloatingReset 3.14 % 5.02 % 23,834 5.24 17 0.2978 % 2,121.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.T FixedReset -2.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.35
Evaluated at bid price : 15.35
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -2.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.68
Evaluated at bid price : 17.68
Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 15.81
Bid-YTW : 9.30 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.08
Evaluated at bid price : 15.08
Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset -2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.81
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset -1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.14
Evaluated at bid price : 18.14
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.79
Evaluated at bid price : 23.07
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
BNS.PR.Z FixedReset -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.33
Bid-YTW : 6.08 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset -1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.58
Evaluated at bid price : 19.58
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset -1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BAM.PR.C Floater -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.34
Evaluated at bid price : 10.34
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 12.35
Evaluated at bid price : 12.35
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset -1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.10
Evaluated at bid price : 20.10
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset -1.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.54
Evaluated at bid price : 17.54
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.48
Evaluated at bid price : 10.48
Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.76
Evaluated at bid price : 16.76
Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 5.28 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset -1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.41
Bid-YTW : 5.69 %
BAM.PF.F FixedReset -1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.20
Evaluated at bid price : 15.20
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
BMO.PR.R FloatingReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 13.35
Evaluated at bid price : 13.35
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.45
Evaluated at bid price : 10.45
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.30
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
HSE.PR.B FloatingReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.57
Evaluated at bid price : 10.57
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
TRP.PR.I FloatingReset 1.75 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 11.65
Evaluated at bid price : 11.65
Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 11.62
Evaluated at bid price : 11.62
Bid-YTW : 5.36 %
TRP.PR.F FloatingReset 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 14.06
Evaluated at bid price : 14.06
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.S FixedReset 226,216 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.14
Evaluated at bid price : 18.14
Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
NA.PR.X FixedReset 130,483 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.96
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
RY.PR.A Deemed-Retractible 102,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BNS.PR.G FixedReset 74,200 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.30
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 70,531 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.71
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 58,795 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
NA.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 23.81 – 24.39
Spot Rate : 0.5800
Average : 0.3808

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.81
Bid-YTW : 4.39 %

BAM.PR.T FixedReset Quote: 15.35 – 15.91
Spot Rate : 0.5600
Average : 0.3752

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.35
Evaluated at bid price : 15.35
Bid-YTW : 5.26 %

GWO.PR.O FloatingReset Quote: 13.10 – 13.95
Spot Rate : 0.8500
Average : 0.6814

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 10.24 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.07 – 23.49
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2575

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.79
Evaluated at bid price : 23.07
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %

HSE.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 19.50 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3652

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %

BAM.PF.G FixedReset Quote: 20.27 – 20.65
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2690

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.27
Evaluated at bid price : 20.27
Bid-YTW : 4.80 %

Issue Comments

MFC.PR.F: Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that MFC.PR.F will reset to 2.178% effective June 20.

Holders of MFC.PR.F have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 141bp on the par value of $25.00. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is 5:00 p.m. (EDT) on June 6, 2016; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion. The ticker for the new FloatingReset, if it is created, will be MFC.PR.P.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., MFC.PR.F and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_FR_160602
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; all of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate and the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are both well below zero, at -0.65% and -0.22%, respectively! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the MFC.PR.F FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for MFC.PR.F) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0.00% -1.00% -2.00%
MFC.PR.F 13.83 141bp 13.02 11.97 10.91

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of MFC.PR.F continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Note as well that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of MFC.PR.F are tendered for conversion, then no conversions will be allowed; but if only 100,000 shares of MFC.PR.F will remain after the rest are all tendered, then conversion will be mandatory. However, this is relatively rare: all 39 Strong Pairs currently extant have some version of this condition and all but five have both series outstanding.

New Issues

New Issue: NA FixedReset, 5.40%+466, NVCC

National Bank of Canada has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by National Bank Financial Inc. for the issuance on a bought deal basis of 10 million non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 36 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 36 Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $250 million.

National Bank has granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 2 million Series 36 Preferred Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing. The gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $300 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series 36 Preferred Shares will yield 5.40% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, for the initial period ending August 15, 2021. The first of such dividends, if declared, shall be payable on November 15, 2016. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 466 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Subject to regulatory approval, National Bank may redeem the Series 36 Preferred Shares in whole or in part at par on August 15, 2021 and on August 15 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Series 36 Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of non-cumulative floating rate first preferred shares series 37 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 37 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on August 15, 2021, and on August 15 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 37 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 466 basis points.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and added to National Bank’s capital base. The expected closing date is on or about June 13, 2016. National Bank intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its December 1, 2014 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 36 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 36 Preferred Shares”), the size of the offering has been increased to 16 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $400 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is on or about June 13, 2016.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and added to National Bank’s capital base.

As has so often been the case recently, using Implied Volatility analysis to determine whether the pricing of this issue is rich or cheap yields ambiguous results:

impVol_NA_160602
Click for Big

The new issue fits in very well with the line determined by the three extant NVCC-compliant issues, but the Implied Volatility is very high. Thus, if one believes that spreads are very high and will eventually regress to more usual levels, one will buy the low-spread low-price issues in order to capture the expected capital gain. However, if one believes that current conditions represent the new normal (with low GOC-5 yields and spreads that are high relative to historical norms) then one will buy the high-spread high-price issues in order to avoid the capital loss that one expects on the low-spread issues as Implied Volatility declines and the curve flattens.

Thanks to Assiduous Readers FletcherLynd, brian and klargenf, who discussed this issue in the comments to New Issue: NA FixedReset, 5.60%+490 (which was NA’s previous new issue).

Issue Comments

RON.PR.A, RON.PR.B : S&P Rates P-2(low)

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •Mooresville, N.C.-based home improvement retailer Lowe’s Cos. Inc. has completed its previously announced acquisition of Quebec-based RONA Inc. for about C$3.2 billion.
  • •As a result, we are raising our long-term corporate credit rating on RONA to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BB+’ and removing the company from CreditWatch, where we had placed it with positive implications Feb. 3, 2016. The outlook is stable.
  • •At the same time, we are raising our issue-level rating on RONA’s senior unsecured notes to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BB+’ and our rating on its preferred shares to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘B+’.


“In our opinion, RONA’s operations are important to Lowe’s long-term growth strategy,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Alessio Di Francesco. As such, we believe Lowe’s is unlikely to sell RONA and we expect that Lowe’s would likely provide additional liquidity, capital, or risk transfer in most foreseeable circumstances. We believe the 496 stores and nine distribution centers Lowe’s acquired from RONA should improve the competitive position of its Canadian business by increasing its scale and effectively taking out a competitor. Prior to completing this acquisition, Lowe’s had only 42 stores in Canada. Furthermore, RONA offers Lowe’s an important entry into Quebec (almost 25% of the Canadian home improvement market) where Lowe’s previously had no presence.

RON.PR.A and RON.PR.B were last mentioned on PrefBlog when the effective date of the Plan of Arrangement was announced.

DBRS has not yet resolved its Review-Positive of RONA, which was announced when the plan of arrangement was proposed.

Market Action

June 1, 2016

There are some that now believe the US has lost ground as a competitive economy:

The United States was knocked out of the top spot in this year’s ranking of the world’s most competitive countries, a position it had held since 2013.

This according to the annual evaluation by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD), a Switzerland-based private business school whose World Competitiveness Center research group has ranked nations on their competitiveness on the global business stage since 1989.

The United States fell two positions on the annual ranking, supplanted by Hong Kong and Switzerland. Hong Kong’s role as the gateway to the economic might of the Chinese Mainland (which ranked 25 on the list), as well as the rest of Asia, gives it fuel for its economic machine. At the same time it is diversified and therefore safer from economic shocks within the region. But there are other factors at play, says Professor Arturo Bris, director of the IMD World Competitiveness Center.

“Hong Kong has an amazing regulatory system,” Bris told Forbes. “Business-friendly, promoting competition, and at the same time investing in public education. It has built an amazing public sector – which, of course is easy to do in a small economy – but Hong Kong is extremely efficient.”

Switzerland, which jumped two places to settle at No. 2 this year, withstood currency depreciation to surge in 2016. “Exports have increased and capital influx has increased as well and the GDP has grown,” explained Bris. “The Swiss economy has performed well, despite these monetary imbalances.”

. Hungary, for example, has given fiscal incentives to the IT business community, says Bris. “In Hungary, if you are an IT professional, you don’t pay income taxes—same thing in Estonia or Lithuania.” Professionals in Eastern European nations, he added, have played a role in innovations by companies like WhatsApp and Spotify.

The problems with risk-assessment are apparent in fields other than investment:

Millions of Americans are missing out on a chance to avoid debilitating fractures from weakened bones, researchers say, because they are terrified of exceedingly rare side effects from drugs that can help them.

Reports of the drugs’ causing jawbones to rot and thighbones to snap in two have shaken many osteoporosis patients so much that they say they would rather take their chances with the disease. Use of the most commonly prescribed osteoporosis drugs fell by 50 percent from 2008 to 2012, according to a recent paper, and doctors say the trend is continuing.

There is little question that fractures caused by fragile bones are a real problem, particularly for women. A 50-year-old woman has a 50 percent chance of having an osteoporotic fracture in her remaining years. The drugs, meant to be started when bone density falls very low and the chance of a fracture soars, can reduce that risk by half, studies show.

But to many, it matters little that the drugs’ frightening side effects are extremely rare. Estimates are that 10 to 40 in 100,000 osteoporosis patients taking the drugs — including alendronate, ibandronate, risedronate and zoledronate — have sustained broken thighbones. Fewer than one in 100,000 have had the jawbone problem.

“You only need to treat 50 people to prevent a fracture, but you need to treat 40,000 to see an atypical fracture,” said Dr. Clifford J. Rosen, a professor of medicine at Tufts University who has no association with the makers of the drugs.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.50%, equivalent to 7.15% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 3.95%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 320bp, unchanged from the value reported May 25.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3780 % 1,693.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3780 % 3,094.2
Floater 4.48 % 4.56 % 63,305 16.24 3 -0.3780 % 1,783.2
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 1 -0.0116 % 2,835.8
SplitShare 4.91 % 5.18 % 82,151 4.70 7 -0.0116 % 3,318.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0116 % 2,589.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.63 % 1.21 % 81,870 0.09 9 -0.0305 % 2,612.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.40 % 5.50 % 111,619 14.61 28 0.2377 % 2,712.0
FixedReset 5.07 % 4.60 % 161,720 7.43 87 0.7153 % 2,011.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 5.34 % 131,192 4.98 33 0.0732 % 2,698.9
FloatingReset 3.15 % 4.98 % 23,748 5.24 17 0.1287 % 2,114.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 11.80
Evaluated at bid price : 11.80
Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
FTS.PR.I FloatingReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 12.10
Evaluated at bid price : 12.10
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.97
Evaluated at bid price : 20.97
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
SLF.PR.I FixedReset 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.97
Bid-YTW : 6.66 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.60
Evaluated at bid price : 18.60
Bid-YTW : 4.34 %
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.99
Evaluated at bid price : 18.99
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
HSE.PR.C FixedReset 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset 1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.68
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
SLF.PR.J FloatingReset 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.10
Bid-YTW : 10.40 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.13
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
BAM.PF.G FixedReset 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.64
Evaluated at bid price : 20.64
Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.62
Evaluated at bid price : 18.62
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
BAM.PF.B FixedReset 1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.35
Evaluated at bid price : 18.35
Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 4.36 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.68
Bid-YTW : 9.27 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 13.85
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
BMO.PR.Q FixedReset 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.86
Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
TRP.PR.H FloatingReset 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 10.33
Evaluated at bid price : 10.33
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
HSE.PR.E FixedReset 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 11.56
Evaluated at bid price : 11.56
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
BAM.PR.R FixedReset 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 15.40
Evaluated at bid price : 15.40
Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
BAM.PR.Z FixedReset 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.86
Evaluated at bid price : 19.86
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.98
Evaluated at bid price : 16.98
Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
TRP.PR.I FloatingReset 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 11.45
Evaluated at bid price : 11.45
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.54
Evaluated at bid price : 18.54
Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.64
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.07
Evaluated at bid price : 19.07
Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset 1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.91
Evaluated at bid price : 19.91
Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BAM.PR.T FixedReset 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 15.80
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
IFC.PR.A FixedReset 1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.16
Bid-YTW : 8.98 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset 2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.34
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset 2.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 6.86 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset 2.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.67
Evaluated at bid price : 19.67
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset 2.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 15.04
Evaluated at bid price : 15.04
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset 3.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.15
Evaluated at bid price : 18.15
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.J FixedReset 355,584 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.70
Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
TD.PF.G FixedReset 255,403 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
RY.PR.R FixedReset 184,693 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.39
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
BNS.PR.G FixedReset 163,173 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-07-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.22
Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 110,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 11.56
Evaluated at bid price : 11.56
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 107,180 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.43
Bid-YTW : 5.40 %
There were 40 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Quote: 14.00 – 14.74
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.5557

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 9.79 %

TD.PR.Z FloatingReset Quote: 21.37 – 21.87
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3366

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.37
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

TRP.PR.H FloatingReset Quote: 10.33 – 11.00
Spot Rate : 0.6700
Average : 0.5214

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 10.33
Evaluated at bid price : 10.33
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %

HSE.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 18.00 – 18.40
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2822

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %

ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.30 – 24.65
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2354

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 23.83
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %

FTS.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 17.31 – 17.65
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2287

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.31
Evaluated at bid price : 17.31
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %