May 15, 2015

FFN.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-4(high) by DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the rating of the Preferred Shares issued by North American Financial 15 Split Corp. (the Company) at Pfd-4 (high).

In October 2004, the Company issued 6.4 million Preferred Shares (at $10 each) and an equal number of Class A Shares (at $15 each). Although these shares were offered separately, together they form a Unit. The redemption date was originally December 1, 2014, but shareholders have approved an extension of the redemption date for both classes of shares to December 1, 2019.

Since the last rating confirmation in May 2014, the NAV of the Company has been generally stable, with downside protection fluctuating from 37% to 41% over the past year. The Preferred Share dividend coverage ratio is below 1.0 times and the monthly Class A Share distribution is expected to result in an average grind on the portfolio of 5.3% annually for the remaining term until maturity. As a result, the rating of the Preferred Shares has been confirmed at Pfd-4 (high).

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 19bp, FixedResets losing 20bp and DeemedRetractibles off 3bp. The Performance Highlights table is of more-or-less average length, dominated by FixedReset losers. Volume was low.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

impVol_TRP_150515
Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 24.05 to be $0.91 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.80 cheap at its bid price of 25.00.

impVol_MFC_150515
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Another excellent fit, but the numbers are perplexing. Implied Volatility for MFC continues to be a conundrum. It is still too high if we consider that NVCC rules will never apply to these issues; it is still too low if we consider them to be NVCC non-compliant issues (and therefore with Deemed Maturities in the call schedule).

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230 on 2020-3-19, bid at 23.92 to be $0.38 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 25.00 to be $0.55 cheap.

impVol_BAM_150515
Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PF.B, resetting at +263bp on 2019-3-31, bid at 22.61 to be $0.81 cheap. BAM.PF.G, resetting at +284bp 2020-6-30 is bid at 24.87 and appears to be $0.48 rich.

impVol_FTS_150515
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FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp, and bid at 16.10, looks $1.01 cheap and resets 2015-6-1. FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp and resetting 2019-3-1, is bid at 21.91 and is $0.61 rich.

pairs_FR_150515
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Investment-grade pairs predict an average over the next five-odd years of about 0.30%, including the TRP.PR.A / TRP.PR.F at -0.29% and the BNS.PR.Y / BNS.PR.D pair at +0.71. On the junk side, the FFH.PR.E / FFH.PR.F pair is at -0.99%, while BRF.PR.A / BRF.PR.B is at -0.81%.

pairs_FF_150515
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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.0576 % 2,329.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.0576 % 4,073.6
Floater 3.12 % 3.25 % 53,558 19.07 4 1.0576 % 2,476.8
OpRet 4.46 % -4.81 % 37,076 0.13 2 -0.0271 % 2,774.2
SplitShare 4.58 % 4.31 % 60,926 3.38 3 1.0633 % 3,257.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0271 % 2,536.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.46 % 1.34 % 62,909 0.08 18 -0.0022 % 2,520.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.06 % 5.05 % 121,054 15.35 15 -0.1896 % 2,781.7
FixedReset 4.40 % 3.71 % 269,085 16.38 86 -0.2027 % 2,420.2
Deemed-Retractible 4.92 % 3.39 % 111,416 0.77 35 -0.0272 % 2,643.2
FloatingReset 2.59 % 2.92 % 61,930 6.18 7 -0.0243 % 2,333.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.G FixedReset -3.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.53
Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 17.62
Evaluated at bid price : 17.62
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
ENB.PR.J FixedReset -2.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset -2.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset -2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.37
Bid-YTW : 4.24 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 16.10
Evaluated at bid price : 16.10
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset -1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 21.66
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.59
Bid-YTW : 3.31 %
PVS.PR.D SplitShare 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2021-10-08
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
PVS.PR.C SplitShare 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.26
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 15.35
Evaluated at bid price : 15.35
Bid-YTW : 3.28 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 15.46
Evaluated at bid price : 15.46
Bid-YTW : 3.25 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 15.30
Evaluated at bid price : 15.30
Bid-YTW : 3.29 %
CIU.PR.C FixedReset 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
MFC.PR.A OpRet 421,300 Called for redemption 2015-6-19.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-06-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 1.26 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset 135,310 RBC sold 35,000 to anonymous at 25.00. Desjardins crossed 60,900 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.89
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset 119,839 TD crossed 100,000 at 24.95.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.84
Bid-YTW : 3.70 %
RY.PR.K FloatingReset 46,000 Nesbitt crossed 45,000 at 24.21.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 40,100 TD crossed 39,500 at 25.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.32
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 36,853 TD crossed 25,000 at 15.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 15.77
Evaluated at bid price : 15.77
Bid-YTW : 3.68 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Quote: 24.00 – 24.60
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4240

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.11 %

ENB.PF.G FixedReset Quote: 22.05 – 22.39
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2162

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 21.66
Evaluated at bid price : 22.05
Bid-YTW : 4.38 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.00 – 24.42
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.3188

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.61
Evaluated at bid price : 24.00
Bid-YTW : 4.94 %

HSE.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 17.36 – 17.65
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1957

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 17.36
Evaluated at bid price : 17.36
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.25 – 24.55
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2166

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-05-15
Maturity Price : 23.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.25
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %

GWO.PR.R Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.95 – 25.20
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1785

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

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