April 8, 2009

The SEC has announced that facts don’t matter any more:

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will weigh multiple rules to dictate when traders can bet shares will fall, after lawmakers and business groups said short-sellers fueled the financial crisis by targeting banks.

[SEC Chairman Mary] Schapiro said the SEC isn’t aware of any “empirical evidence” that shows the elimination of the uptick rule contributed to falling U.S. stock prices. Still, “many members of the public have come to associate short-selling with that volatility and with a loss of investor confidence,” she said.

… but it might simply be some more political grandstanding:

SEC Commissioner Kathleen Casey, a Republican, questioned whether the agency was pushing forward “merely in a political exercise.” If the SEC fails to justify its actions, the agency risked having any rule challenged and shot down by a federal court, she said.

“Empirical evidence must guide regulatory decisions,” said Casey, who said she supported soliciting public comment on the proposals. “If the commission forgets this principle, the D.C. Circuit stands ready to provide a reminder.”

Another day of good solid gains for preferreds, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 0.35%, just a hairsbreadth better than Fixed Resets. The former asset class now has pre-tax bid-YTW of 7.06%, equivalent to 9.88% interest after application of the standard 1.4x conversion factor. Long corporates remain as near as dammit to 7.5%, so the pre-tax Interest Equivalent spread is now 238bp.

Volume was good today, dominated by the recent FixedReset issues; MFC.PR.D’s volume is picking up. It’s hard to tell what to think about this issue – the issue size was bumped and the underwriters exercised their greenshoe, but the issue has been trading sub-par since its issue with less volume than one might expect from an issue of this size. Could it be that the underwriters took a basketful into inventory?

For the first time in a while, we close a day without any new Fixed-Reset issues being marketted. It is, I suspect, a rather interesting conundrum; the banks – and insurers! – could probably use some more capital with a 5-year call; but market yields now suggest that a new issue should carry a coupon of less than the recent new issues. Who wants to be the first to try selling an issue with a reduced coupon? As far as I can readily recall, it would be a first for the sector.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6970 % 904.3
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -1.6970 % 1,462.4
Floater 5.39 % 5.31 % 68,842 15.01 2 -1.6970 % 1,129.7
OpRet 5.19 % 4.79 % 132,960 3.89 15 0.3200 % 2,095.1
SplitShare 6.87 % 11.92 % 46,231 5.67 3 0.6228 % 1,681.5
Interest-Bearing 6.12 % 8.78 % 28,951 0.71 1 1.0309 % 1,947.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3575 % 1,571.7
Perpetual-Discount 6.94 % 7.06 % 149,733 12.48 71 0.3575 % 1,447.5
FixedReset 6.05 % 5.57 % 685,645 13.42 35 0.3160 % 1,862.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater -1.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 7.91
Evaluated at bid price : 7.91
Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
IAG.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 14.79
Evaluated at bid price : 14.79
Bid-YTW : 7.86 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -1.54 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 8.31
Evaluated at bid price : 8.31
Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
STW.PR.A Interest-Bearing 1.03 % Asset coverage of 1.5-:1 as of April 2, based on Capital Unit NAV of 2.47. and 1.99 Capital Units per Preferred.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2009-12-31
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 9.80
Bid-YTW : 8.78 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 16.54
Evaluated at bid price : 16.54
Bid-YTW : 7.13 %
CL.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 21.85
Evaluated at bid price : 21.85
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 22.11
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 13.57
Evaluated at bid price : 13.57
Bid-YTW : 8.86 %
BNS.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 19.61
Evaluated at bid price : 19.61
Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
TD.PR.Y FixedReset 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 22.10
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
MFC.PR.A OpRet 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-18
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.62
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
IAG.PR.C FixedReset 1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 22.46
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
CU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 22.13
Evaluated at bid price : 22.52
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 2.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 2.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.30
Bid-YTW : 9.28 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare 2.77 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of February 28, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.25
Bid-YTW : 14.38 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 2.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 17.79
Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
HSB.PR.E FixedReset 615,420 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 305,543 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 230,033 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.38
Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
BMO.PR.O FixedReset 126,170 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-06-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.60
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 123,295 Recent new issue (but only just barely “recent”).
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 23.29
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
MFC.PR.D FixedReset 75,889 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-04-08
Maturity Price : 24.96
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

2 Responses to “April 8, 2009”

  1. lystgl says:

    Mr. Hymas, where are you finding corporates yielding 7.5%? Only thing I can access through what passes for a brokerage is bank junk maturing sometime in the next century.

  2. jiHymas says:

    I take the figures from the indices published at http://www.canadianbondindices.com

    Yesterday I mentioned a new issue of IGM 10-Years with a 7.35% coupon.

    I understand that TDW is offering five long corporate issues: three Bell Canadas yielding 8.3%, a BAM yielding 10.1% and a GE Capital Canada yielding 8.1%. Pretty slim pickings, but when you’re retail that’s what you get!

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