Market Action

January 22, 2009

I went to a seminar on Risk Management today, presented as part of the Finance Experts Discussion Series @ Rotman.

Rather disappointing, really. Panelists were:

  • Derrell Hendrix, CEO, RISConsulting and Founding Partner and CEO, Karson Management (Bermuda) Limited
  • John Hull, Maple Financial Group Chair in Derivatives and Risk Management, Professor of Finance and Co-Director, Master of Finance Program, Rotman School of Management, U of Toronto
  • Robert (Bob) Tapscott, interim CEO, RISConsulting

One of the RISConsulting guys – I forget which one – was of the view that transparency will save the world and drew comparisons to nuclear reactor design and operation. He did not address the problems inherent in forecasting financial markets – rather than designing and operating physical technology – nor did he explain whereby investors are presumed to be able to find the time to utilize such transparency. Hands up everybody who’s read through the entire annual report of every company in which they’ve invested!

Dr. Hull claimed that the world would be saved through reduction of perverse incentives, by which he means he wants deferred bonuses rather than immediate ones. He did not address the question of who in their right mind would willingly work for a deferred bonus, or what discounting rate a rational participant should apply to the deferred portion since eventual payment of the amount due is basically discretionary. I’d suggest 50%+. Counterparty risk is pretty extreme in such circumstances.

Limited / Deferred / Regulated compensation is getting a lot of ink nowadays. Econbrowser‘s James Hamilton is also beating that drum. Sigh. Time to move to Dubai, ’cause that’s where all the action’s going to be in ten years, at this rate.

Credit crunch commentary has now reached its most tiresome phase: it’s just being used as a vehicle to push along various long-standing agendas. The crisis itself is merely a tired rehash of the panic of 1825 and it’s BORING.

Good volume today, but the market was off a good bit, probably due – as much as anything in the markets is ever due – to a combination of rotten equities and heavy issuance.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 6.83 % 7.42 % 37,658 13.67 2 -0.0347 % 868.3
FixedFloater 7.32 % 6.90 % 153,304 13.82 8 -0.1379 % 1,400.9
Floater 5.36 % 4.79 % 35,027 15.87 4 -1.9529 % 980.2
OpRet 5.32 % 4.78 % 141,464 4.05 15 -0.1617 % 2,018.0
SplitShare 6.26 % 9.78 % 82,309 4.14 15 -0.9220 % 1,777.3
Interest-Bearing 7.18 % 8.24 % 36,981 0.90 2 -0.1170 % 1,971.2
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.5751 % 1,554.3
Perpetual-Discount 6.90 % 6.94 % 233,509 12.63 71 -0.5751 % 1,431.5
FixedReset 6.00 % 4.89 % 828,051 15.05 22 -0.7398 % 1,808.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
DFN.PR.A SplitShare -7.44 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.33
Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -7.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 7.61
Evaluated at bid price : 7.61
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -5.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
NA.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -4.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 7.10 %
WFS.PR.A SplitShare -3.75 % Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of January 15, according to Mulvihill.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-06-30
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.48
Bid-YTW : 12.98 %
BNS.PR.R FixedReset -3.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.61
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
FBS.PR.B SplitShare -3.58 % Asset coverage of 1.1-:1 as of January 15 according to TD Securities.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-12-15
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 7.81
Bid-YTW : 14.60 %
GWO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -3.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 16.81
Evaluated at bid price : 16.81
Bid-YTW : 7.32 %
SLF.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -2.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 16.28
Evaluated at bid price : 16.28
Bid-YTW : 7.40 %
SLF.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -2.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.38
Evaluated at bid price : 15.38
Bid-YTW : 7.34 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -2.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 20.49
Evaluated at bid price : 20.49
Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
RY.PR.L FixedReset -2.35 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 24.08
Evaluated at bid price : 24.12
Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -2.27 % Asset coverage of 1.8+:1 as of December 31 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 10.75
Bid-YTW : 16.32 %
GWO.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 18.11
Evaluated at bid price : 18.11
Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
POW.PR.D Perpetual-Discount -2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 17.91
Evaluated at bid price : 17.91
Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
CM.PR.K FixedReset -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.11
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.20
Evaluated at bid price : 15.20
Bid-YTW : 7.90 %
BCE.PR.I FixedFloater -1.84 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.01
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
HSB.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 17.23
Evaluated at bid price : 17.23
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
CM.PR.I Perpetual-Discount -1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 16.28
Evaluated at bid price : 16.28
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
ELF.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.79 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.91
Evaluated at bid price : 15.91
Bid-YTW : 8.43 %
FTN.PR.A SplitShare -1.74 % Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of January 15, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2015-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 7.89
Bid-YTW : 9.67 %
TD.PR.A FixedReset -1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TD.PR.C FixedReset -1.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 24.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.55
Evaluated at bid price : 15.55
Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
BNS.PR.P FixedReset -1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.77
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
ALB.PR.A SplitShare -1.40 % Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of January 15 according to Scotia Managed Companies.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.75
Bid-YTW : 16.99 %
GWO.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 21.70
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
TD.PR.R Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 6.78 %
CM.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.79
Evaluated at bid price : 15.79
Bid-YTW : 7.18 %
MFC.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 17.83
Evaluated at bid price : 17.83
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
SLF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 15.61
Evaluated at bid price : 15.61
Bid-YTW : 7.31 %
BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 20.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.00
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 11.15 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
TRI.PR.B Floater -1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 11.05
Evaluated at bid price : 11.05
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
SBC.PR.A SplitShare -1.10 % Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of January 15 according to Brompton Group.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-11-30
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.11
Bid-YTW : 11.58 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
PWF.PR.M FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 24.62
Evaluated at bid price : 24.67
Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 43.37
Evaluated at bid price : 44.15
Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
NA.PR.N FixedReset 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 21.96
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
LFE.PR.A SplitShare 1.50 % Asset coverage of 1.5-:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 9.47
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 1.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.66
Evaluated at bid price : 22.87
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
FFN.PR.A SplitShare 3.06 % Asset coverage of 1.1+:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 7.75
Bid-YTW : 10.67 %
PPL.PR.A SplitShare 4.00 % Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.85
Bid-YTW : 8.64 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 4.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 11.83
Evaluated at bid price : 11.83
Bid-YTW : 10.23 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.J OpRet 201,898 Nesbitt crossed 200,000 at 25.05.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-07-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 193,491 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 24.95
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 108,295 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 24.96
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
TD.PR.M OpRet 71,341 Anonymous bought two blocks of 25,000 shares each from Desjardins at 26.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 3.86 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 61,273 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 shares at 23.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-22
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
IGM.PR.A OpRet 59,249 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 25.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-06-29
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.40
Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Issue Comments

STW.PR.A: Capital Units' Distribution Cut

STRATA Income Fund has announced:

Based upon a review of various factors, we have reduced the distribution for STRATA Income Fund (the “Fund”) to $0.05 per capital unit payable on February 13, 2009 to unitholders of record on January 31, 2009. Among the more important considerations were distribution cuts by a number of oil and gas royalty trusts in response to the recent correction in oil and gas prices, the global economic slowdown including its impact on corporate revenues and earnings, and corporate conversions accompanied by distribution cuts by a number of income trusts. These factors have caused COMPASS Income Fund (“COMPASS”), the sole underlying investment of the Fund, to reduce its distributions and STRATA to follow suit.

Notwithstanding the current challenging economic environment, we believe there are some very positive developments occurring which we shall consider in determining future distribution levels of COMPASS and of the Fund. More specifically, Middlefield’s oil and gas consultant, Groppe Long and Littell, is currently forecasting a significant recovery in energy prices with crude oil expected to average US$85 per barrel in 2009. In addition, we expect that the various economic stimulus packages and interest rate cuts will begin to take effect in the second half of 2009, thereby improving business prospects.

It should be noted that the Fund will be maturing on November 30, 2009, at which time the preferred securities, which are currently yielding 6.0% per annum, will be repaid in full at the original subscription price of $10.00 plus accrued interest. In addition, those holding STRATA capital units will have the option to receive the net asset value at maturity or exchange their capital units for units of COMPASS.

The capital units and the preferred securities trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols STW.UN and STW.PR.A, respectively.

STW.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when its Stealth Redemption was confirmed. STW.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is included in the HIMIPref™ InterestBearing subindex

Issue Comments

SNH.PR.U to Mature on Schedule

SNP Health Split Corp. has announced:

The Capital Shares and Preferred Shares will be redeemed by the Company on February 11, 2009 in accordance with the redemption provisions of the shares. Pursuant to these provisions, the Preferred Shares will be redeemed at a price per share equal to the lesser of $25.00 and the Net Asset Value per Unit. The Capital Shares will be redeemed at a price equal to the amount (for every two capital shares) by which the Net Asset Value per Unit exceeds $25.00.

The NAVPU is $28.70 as of January 15 according to Scotia Managed Companies. Not a very successful split corporation as far as the capital unitholders are concerned … capital units were issued at $11.15. On the bright side, though, I might use the handy graph of performance as an illustration of the difference between preferreds and capital!

SNH.PR.U was last mentioned on PrefBlog when it was downgraded to Pfd-5(high) by DBRS. SNH.PR.U is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

Regulatory Capital

The Rising Cost of Make-Believe: BNS Sub-Debt Issue

Scotia has announced:

that it has completed the domestic offering of $1 billion of 6.65% Subordinated Debentures due 2021 (the “Debentures”). The Debentures will qualify as Tier 2B capital of the Bank for regulatory purposes and are part of Scotiabank’s ongoing and proactive management of its capital structure.

The prospectus supplement is available on SEDAR, dated January 19:

The Debentures offered by this prospectus supplement will be dated January 22, 2009 and will mature on January 22, 2021. Interest on such Debentures at the rate of 6.65% per annum will be payable in equal semi-annual payments in arrears on January 22 and July 22 in each year, commencing July 22, 2009 and continuing until January 22, 2016.

The initial interest payment, payable on July 22, 2009, will be $33.25 per $1,000 principal amount of Debentures, based on an anticipated closing date of January 22, 2009. From January 22, 2016 until maturity on January 22, 2021, interest on such Debentures will be payable at an annual rate equal to the 90-day Bankers’ Acceptance Rate (as defined herein) plus 5.85% payable quarterly in arrears on the 22nd day of each of April, July, October and January in each year, commencing April 22, 2016.

A penalty rate of BAs+585! Note 12 of the Scotia 2008 Annual Report lists an issue with a pretend-maturity of 2009-5-12, real maturity in 2014, penalty rate of BAs+100bp.

Three month BAs are recorded by the Bank of Canada at 0.96% as of 1/21.

Interesting External Papers

BoC Releases Monetary Policy Report Update

The Bank of Canada has announced that it has released the January 2009 Update to the Monetary Policy Report:

The anticipated normalization of financial conditions, together with the stimulus coming from monetary and fiscal policies, should boost the growth of consumer spending in 2010. Exports are also expected to recover next year as the U.S. economy strengthens and the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar stimulates foreign demand. Excess supply will be gradually reduced, with the economy projected to return to balance by mid-2011. The projected return to balance of the Canadian economy is faster than either of the recoveries following the 1981–82 and 1990–92 recessions (Chart 7). In contrast to these earlier episodes, with an explicit 2 per cent inflation target since 1991 and expectations of inflation well anchored to this target, monetary policy has been able to react in a timely and significant way to help offset the economic downturn and promote conditions to support recovery. In addition, Canada enters this recession with greater fiscal flexibility and stronger corporate balance sheets than in the recession of the 1990s.

It would appear – so far! – that our current recession is unremarkable in terms of either severity or interval since the last one of note. Which, I trust, will explain my anger at the length of time it will take for Spend-Every-Penny’s good-times budgets to cover the projected cost of this rough period.

If we’re lucky, next week’s budget will include a credible projection of how much this recession will cost – including stimulus measures – together with a credible plan of tax increases – effective now – that will pay for it in the ten to fifteen years following recovery. My bet? We won’t be lucky.

New Issues

New Issue: National Bank Fixed-Reset 6.60%+479

National Bank has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by National Bank Financial Inc. for an issue on a bought deal basis of 4 million non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 26 (the “Series 26 Preferred Shares”), at a price of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $100 million.

National Bank has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 3 million Series 26 Preferred Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to one business day prior to closing. The maximum gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $175 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series 26 Preferred Shares will yield 6.60% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, for the initial period ending February 15, 2014. The first of such dividends, if declared, shall be payable on May 15, 2009. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 479 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Holders of the Series 26 Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of non-cumulative floating rate first preferred shares series 27 (the “Series 27 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on February 15, 2014, and on February 15th every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 27 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 479 basis points.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and are expected to qualify as Tier 1 capital for National Bank. The expected closing date is on or about January 30, 2009. National Bank intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its December 5, 2008 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

National Bank will make an application to list the Series 26 Preferred Shares and the Series 27 Preferred Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The initial dividend will be $0.47918 payable May 15 based on an anticipated closing January 30.

New Issues

New Issue: TD Fixed-Reset 6.25%+438

TD Bank has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc. for an issue of 8 million non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series AG (the Series AG Shares), carrying a face value of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $200 million. TDBFG intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its September 29, 2008 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

TDBFG has also granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 3 million Series AG Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing. The maximum gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $275 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series AG Shares will yield 6.25% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TDBFG, for the initial period ending April 30, 2014. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 438 basis points over the then five-year Government of Canada bond yield.

Holders of the Series AG Shares will have the right to convert their shares into non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares, Series AH (the Series AH Shares), subject to certain conditions, on April 30, 2014, and on April 30th every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series AH Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared
by the Board of Directors of TDBFG, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury bill yield plus 438 basis points.

The issue is anticipated to qualify as Tier 1 capital for TDBFG and the expected closing date is January 30, 2009. TDBFG will make an application to list the Series AG Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The initial dividend will be $0.38527, payable April 30, based on the anticipated closing date of January 30.

Their recent issue of TD.PR.E (Fixed Reset, 6.25%+437) was very successful … but there is a lot of competition for preferred share dollars right now!

Update, 2009-1-26: TD has announced:

that a group of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc. has exercised the option to purchase an additional 3 million non-cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares, Series AG (the Series AG Shares) carrying a face value of $25.00 per share. This brings the total issue announced on
January 22, 2009, and expected to close January 30, 2009, to 15 million shares and gross proceeds raised under the offering to $375 million. TDBFG will file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its September 29, 2008 short form base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

Update, 2009-1-29: This issue will trade as TD.PR.G

Market Action

January 21, 2009

Nice to see that Banco Santander has imported North American financial advisory practices to Europe:

Branch managers channeled customers with money from property sales or inheritances to private banking salespeople, lawyers for the investors said. A retired school teacher put 300,000 euros ($388,000), half her savings, in a structured product linked to Madoff, said Jordi Ruiz de Villa, an attorney at the Barcelona law firm Jausas. The vendor invested 325,000 euros of lottery winnings in a similar product and may have to return to street sales, according to lawyers at Cremades & Calvo-Sotelo in Madrid.

Spanish securities law requires anyone offering investment services to “suitably evaluate” a customer’s experience and market knowledge and ensure that he or she understands the risks.

A decent day, with PerpetualDiscounts up a bit. Fixed-Resets were also up a bit, until the announcement of two new issues in the late afternoon obviated the need to buy them in the secondary market.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 6.87 % 7.44 % 38,216 13.63 2 0.0347 % 868.6
FixedFloater 7.31 % 6.92 % 158,793 13.82 8 0.2684 % 1,402.9
Floater 5.26 % 4.74 % 36,344 15.98 4 -1.4294 % 999.8
OpRet 5.31 % 4.79 % 142,691 4.06 15 0.0251 % 2,021.2
SplitShare 6.20 % 9.82 % 83,443 4.15 15 0.1472 % 1,793.8
Interest-Bearing 7.17 % 8.33 % 38,135 0.90 2 0.2934 % 1,973.5
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2046 % 1,563.3
Perpetual-Discount 6.85 % 6.89 % 233,941 12.72 71 0.2046 % 1,439.7
FixedReset 5.95 % 4.77 % 833,940 15.28 22 -0.6284 % 1,821.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater -5.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 7.55
Evaluated at bid price : 7.55
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
PPL.PR.A SplitShare -4.70 % Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.51
Bid-YTW : 9.82 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -4.63 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 11.32
Evaluated at bid price : 11.32
Bid-YTW : 10.70 %
PWF.PR.M FixedReset -4.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 24.37
Evaluated at bid price : 24.42
Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PR.B Floater -3.64 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 8.20
Evaluated at bid price : 8.20
Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset -3.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
RY.PR.N FixedReset -2.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 24.96
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BAM.PR.M Perpetual-Discount -2.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 11.86
Evaluated at bid price : 11.86
Bid-YTW : 10.20 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -2.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 19.79
Evaluated at bid price : 19.79
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
BMO.PR.N FixedReset -1.96 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
TCA.PR.Y Perpetual-Discount -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 43.02
Evaluated at bid price : 43.66
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset -1.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 24.96
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
CM.PR.A OpRet -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2009-02-20
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : -14.86 %
CU.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.32 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.32
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 6.79 %
LFE.PR.A SplitShare -1.27 % Asset coverage of 1.5-:1 as of January 15, according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 9.33
Bid-YTW : 7.41 %
BMO.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -1.21 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 21.21
Evaluated at bid price : 21.21
Bid-YTW : 6.98 %
BNA.PR.B SplitShare -1.18 % Asset coverage of 1.8+:1 as of December 31 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2016-03-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
BMO.PR.M FixedReset -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.45
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
FBS.PR.B SplitShare 1.12 % Asset coverage of 1.1-:1 as of January 15 according to TD Securities.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-12-15
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.10
Bid-YTW : 13.13 %
MFC.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 11.18
Evaluated at bid price : 11.18
Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
NA.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.16
Evaluated at bid price : 22.26
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
BMO.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 20.25
Evaluated at bid price : 20.25
Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
BNS.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 17.41
Evaluated at bid price : 17.41
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
NA.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 20.50
Evaluated at bid price : 20.50
Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
BCE.PR.C FixedFloater 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.20
Bid-YTW : 7.08 %
BCE.PR.R FixedFloater 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.21
Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 18.45
Evaluated at bid price : 18.45
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
RY.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 6.50 %
SLF.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 15.80
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
RY.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 18.13
Evaluated at bid price : 18.13
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
SBC.PR.A SplitShare 1.49 % Asset coverage of 1.4+:1 as of January 15 according to Brompton.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2012-11-30
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.20
Bid-YTW : 11.23 %
LBS.PR.A SplitShare 1.82 % Asset coverage of 1.4-:1 as of January 15 according to Brompton.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2013-11-29
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.40
Bid-YTW : 9.53 %
ALB.PR.A SplitShare 1.93 % Asset coverage of 1.2-:1 as of January 15 according to Scotia.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-02-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 16.21 %
PWF.PR.I Perpetual-Discount 2.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 22.75
Bid-YTW : 6.63 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Discount 2.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 21.66
Evaluated at bid price : 21.66
Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
DFN.PR.A SplitShare 2.16 % Asset coverage of 1.7-:1 as of January 15 according to the company.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2014-12-01
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 9.00
Bid-YTW : 7.51 %
SLF.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 2.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 15.80
Evaluated at bid price : 15.80
Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
PWF.PR.K Perpetual-Discount 2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
NA.PR.N FixedReset 3.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 21.71
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
BAM.PR.J OpRet 3.98 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2018-03-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.26
Bid-YTW : 10.96 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 4.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 7.74 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BNS.PR.T FixedReset 769,327 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 24.95
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 5.92 %
TD.PR.E FixedReset 275,742 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 25.02
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
RY.PR.P FixedReset 136,408 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 24.96
Evaluated at bid price : 25.01
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
TD.PR.S FixedReset 127,435 Nesbitt crossed 117,200 at 22.78.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 22.20
Evaluated at bid price : 22.25
Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
RY.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 78,260 RBC crossed 55,000 at 17.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2039-01-21
Maturity Price : 17.79
Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Bid-YTW : 6.38 %
WFS.PR.A SplitShare 74,550 RBC crossed 41,700 at 8.50.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2011-06-30
Maturity Price : 10.00
Evaluated at bid price : 8.81
Bid-YTW : 11.19 %
There were 39 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Issue Comments

BNS.PR.T Settles at Par with Huge Volume

The previously announced Scotia Fixed Resets 6.25%+414 settled today with such success that both Royal and Scotia were convinced to add to the growing pile in the late afternoon. Both issues came with the same 6.25% initial fixed rate, with resets to +450 and +446 respectively … which gives you some idea of what has happend to Canada Five Year yields in the last two weeks!

BNS.PR.T traded 769,327 shares in a range of 24.90-35, to close at 25.00-05, 104×30.

Today’s skill-testing question is: What time were the new issues announced? Hint:

A very successful issue! After announcing an initial size of 8-million shares, Scotia announced on January 8:

that, as a result of strong investor demand for its domestic public offering of non-cumulative 6.25% 5-year rate reset preferred shares Series 26 (the “Preferred Shares Series 26”), the size of the offering has been increased to 10 million shares. The gross proceeds of the offering will now be $250 million and is expected to close on or after January 21, 2009.

The offering was made through a syndicate of investment dealers led by Scotia Capital Inc. on a bought deal basis. The Bank has granted to the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional 3 million Preferred Shares Series 26 at closing, which option is exercisable by the underwriters any time up to 48 hours before closing.

and has now announced:

that it has completed the domestic offering of 13 million, non-cumulative 5-year rate reset preferred shares Series 26 (the “Preferred Shares Series 26”) at a price of $25.00 per share. The gross proceeds of the offering were $325 million.

And today, of course, Scotia came up with another 8-million share issue with a 2-million share greenshoe, immediately bumped up to 10-million shares with the potential for another 2-million.

BNS.PR.T has been added to the HIMIPref™ Fixed-Reset SubIndex.

Interesting External Papers

Cleveland Fed Releases January EconoTrends

The Cleveland Fed has released the January edition of EconoTrends, with some interesting notes, first on inflation:

The CPI fell further than expected, posting a record decrease of −18.4 percent (annualized rate) in November. As you may have guessed, rapidly falling energy prices (down 89.3 percent at an annualized rate), accounted for a large part of the decrease. Outside of energy prices, there was a rather curious uptick in owners’ equivalent rent (OER)—it increased 3.4 percent in November. OER is basically the implicit rent that the home–owner would pay to rent his or her home. Given the recent economic environment and the outlook for housing services, it seems unlikely that OER would continue to increase that rapidly. Excluding food and energy prices (core CPI), the index was virtually unchanged, ticking up a slight 0.3 percent in November. Over the past three months, the core CPI is only up 0.4 percent. The median CPI actually rose 2.6 percent in November, up from 1.8 percent in October, while the 16 percent trimmed mean was unchanged during the month.

…and quantitative easing…

It is apparent from the explosion of the excess reserves component that the surge in total bank reserves has not been associated with a commensurate surge in bank loans.

Rather than lending the additional reserves, many banks have held on to them in an effort to improve their balance sheets. The additional reserves have been associated with some positive signs for liquidity. A key indicator of liquidity is the spread between the London Interbank Borrowing Rate (Libor) on a term loan and the interest rate paid on an Overnight Index Swap (OIS) for a comparable maturity. The Libor–OIS spreads on both one-month and three-month maturities jumped to record levels in September, but have receded substantially as the monetary base has expanded.