PrefBlog

Assiduous Readers will remember that there was an 14% Conversion from the FixedReset ALA.PR.G to the FloatingReset ALA.PR.H. I had advised readers not to convert, but to continue holding the ALA.PR.G, which have reset to 3.415%.

ALA.PR.H will pay dividends at a rate of 3-Month Canada Treasury Bills plus 306bp, reset quarterly.

The issue was listed today, but didn’t trade – this is largely due to the banks’ hegemony over the Canadian financial system (approved by both securities regulators and the Competition-haha Board) and their total lack of interest in providing competent service to stinking investor scum such as yourselves. These exchanges do not hit client accounts until the day after the company gives effect to them – however, investors can complain to the exchange-owned CDS and the (mostly) bank-owned brokerages about this lackadaisical attitude toward client assets and see how far it gets them.

The most logical way to analyze the relative value of ALA.PR.G vs ALA.PR.H through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., ALA.PR.G and the FloatingReset ALA.PR.H). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

Click for Big

The break-even T-Bill yield for the ALA.PR.G / ALA.PR.H pair is now -0.80% (given bid prices of 15.86 and 14.00, respectively; but note that there is no offer for ALA.PR.H and therefore the bid may be regarded with some suspicion even without considering how this relates to other FloatingResets, or other pairs).

AltaGas Ltd. has announced:

that 1,114,177 of its 8,000,000 Cumulative Redeemable Five-Year Fixed Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series G (the “Series G Preferred Shares”) (TSX:ALA.PR.G) were tendered for conversion into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series H (the “Series H Preferred Shares”). As a result of the conversion AltaGas has 6,885,823 Series G Preferred Shares and 1,114,177 Series H Preferred Shares issued and outstanding. The Series G Preferred Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol ALA.PR.G. The Series H Preferred Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol ALA.PR.H.

The Series G Preferred Shares will continue to pay on a quarterly basis, for the five-year period beginning on September 30, 2019, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of AltaGas, a fixed dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 4.242 percent.

The Series H Preferred Shares will pay a floating quarterly dividend for the five-year period beginning on September 30, 2019, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of AltaGas. The floating quarterly dividend rate for the Series H Preferred Shares for the first quarterly floating rate period (being the period from September 30, 2019 to but excluding, December 31, 2019) is 4.698 percent and will be reset every quarter.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series G Preferred Shares and the Series H Preferred Shares, please see the prospectus supplement dated June 25, 2014 which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.

ALA.PR.G is a FixedReset, 4.75%+306, that commenced trading 2014-7-3 after being announced 2014-6-23. Notice of extension was announced 2019-8-29. The issue will reset at 4.242% effective September 30, 2019. I recommended against conversion. News that some were converted was reported on 2019-9-24. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns. In December, 2018, the issue was downgraded to Pfd-3(low) by DBRS and to P-3 by S&P.

TC Energy Corporation has announced:

that it has notified the registered shareholder of the applicable dividend rates for Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 9 (Series 9 Shares) and the Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 10 (Series 10 Shares).

As previously announced in our news release dated September 18, 2019, holders of the Series 9 Shares have the right on October 30, 2019 to convert, on a one-for-one basis, any or all of their Series 9 Shares into Series 10 Shares and receive a floating rate quarterly dividend, or retain any or all of their Series 9 Shares and receive a new fixed rate quarterly dividend.

Should a holder of Series 9 Shares choose to retain their shares, such shareholders will receive the new annual fixed dividend rate applicable to the Series 9 Shares of 3.762% for the five-year period commencing October 30, 2019 to, but excluding, October 30, 2024.

Should a holder of Series 9 Shares choose to convert their shares to Series 10 Shares, holders of Series 10 Shares will receive the floating quarterly dividend rate applicable to the Series 10 Shares of 3.974% for the first quarterly floating rate period commencing effective October 30, 2019 to, but excluding, January 30, 2020. The floating quarterly dividend rate will be reset every quarter.

Beneficial owners of Series 9 Shares who do not provide notice or communicate with their broker or other nominee by 5 p.m. (EDT) on October 15, 2019 will retain their Series 9 Shares and receive the new annual fixed dividend rate applicable to the Series 9 Shares stated above.

The foregoing conversions are subject to the conditions that: (i) if TC Energy determines that there would be less than one million Series 9 Shares outstanding after October 30, 2019, then all remaining Series 9 Shares will automatically be converted into Series 10 Shares on a one-for-one basis on October 30, 2019 and (ii) alternatively, if TC Energy determines that there would be less than one million Series 10 Shares outstanding after October 30, 2019, no Series 9 Shares will be converted into Series 10 Shares. In either case, TC Energy will issue a news release to that effect no later than October 23, 2019.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in the Series 9 Shares and the Series 10 Shares, please see the Corporation’s prospectus supplement dated January 13, 2014 which is available on sedar.com or on our website.

TRP.PR.E is a FixedReset, 4.25%+235, that commenced trading 2014-1-20 after being announced 2014-1-13. Notice of extension was provided on 2019-9-18. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedReset-Discount subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., TRP.PR.E and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated). Inspection of the graph and the overall average break-even rates for extant pairs will provide a guide for estimating the break-even rate for the pair now under consideration assuming, of course, that enough conversions occur so that the pair is in fact created.

Click for Big

The market has lost enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are generally well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.66% and +0.75%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the TRP.PR.E FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, TRP.PR.E. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of TRP.PR.E continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the October 15 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Valener Inc. has announced:

Valener Inc. (« Valener ») (TSX : VNR) (TSX : VNR.PR.A) the public investment vehicle in Énergir, L.P. today announces the completion of the previously announced acquisition of all of Valener’s issued and outstanding common shares (the “Common Shares”) and all of Valener’s issued and outstanding Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series A (the “Preferred Shares”) by Noverco Acquisition, Inc., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Noverco Inc. Pursuant to the statutory plan of arrangement (the “Arrangement”) under Section 192 of the Canada Business Corporations Act, holders of Common Shares will receive $26.00 per Common Share in cash, without interest, and holders of Preferred Shares will receive $25.00 per Preferred Share in cash plus accrued and unpaid dividends, without interest.

DBRS has discontinued the rating:

DBRS Limited discontinued Valener Inc.’s (Valener or the Company) Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares rating of Pfd-2 (low) following repayment of the only outstanding issue.

On March 27, 2019, Valener announced that Noverco Inc. (Noverco), the controlling partner and indirect 71% owner of Énergir, L.P., entered into a definitive arrangement agreement under which Noverco would indirectly acquire all issued and outstanding common shares as well as the Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares of Valener (the Arrangement). Following completion of the Arrangement, Valener will no longer issue any public securities and the rating is therefore discontinued at the Company’s request.

The proposed acquisition at par was announced in March and approved by holders in June. The previous progress report was reported in early August. The company announced on September 23 that it had received its last required approval.

The issue commenced trading 2012-6-6 as a FixedReset, 4.35%+281, after being announced 2012-5-15. It reset to 4.62% effective 2017-10-15. I recommended against conversion and there was no conversion to FloatingResets. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex.