July 24, 2013

I never get tired of mocking the salesmen who pretend to be rough-tough investment analysts. Today’s winners are Alan Roseman and Laura Schwartz, incompetents who feel that “follow the leader” is a dandy investment strategy:

Laura Schwartz, who headed ACA Management LLC’s asset management business in early 2007, testified today that Goldman and Paulson, which is run by billionaire John Paulson, led her to believe that the hedge fund wanted to invest, rather than take a short position, in a mortgage-backed security that lost $1 billion in the crash of the credit markets.

ACA’s former chief executive officer, Alan Roseman, testified yesterday that Paulson’s long position was “critical” to ACA’s participation in Abacus. The SEC claims Tourre and Paulson misled ACA, believing the firm’s presence on the transaction would lend Abacus credibility and attract investors.

Fabulous Fab testifies today:

Fabrice Tourre, the former Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) vice president facing civil fraud claims over a mortgage bond debacle that made his client $1 billion, may say when he takes the witness stand today that he’s a scapegoat who was only trying to do his best for the firm.

Tourre, now a 34-year-old graduate student, is scheduled to testify before a jury in Manhattan federal court this afternoon about his role in structuring and selling a 2007 mortgage-backed investment that lost a group of investors about $1 billion when the mortgage market crashed. It will be his first chance to make good on a promise, made before Congress in April 2010, to fight the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s allegations that he “categorically” denied.

Tourre’s questioning turns out to be mostly about this stupidity, but:

On cross-examination by Tourre’s lawyer, John “Sean” Coffey, Schwartz told jurors that ACA wouldn’t have changed its standards for selecting a portfolio of mortgage-backed securities whether it was getting input from a long or a short investor. She also said she had worked on deals in which investors took both long and short positions on portfolios.

Tourre’s lawyers are trying to show that Paulson’s participation didn’t increase the risk that Abacus would fail and that it didn’t make a difference to ACA.

Well, of course it didn’t. That’s elementary. What a colossal waste of time and money this trial is.

It was another down day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 34bp, FixedResets off 11bp and DeemedRetractibles down 33bp. The lengthy Performance Highlights table is comprised entirely of losers, all but one a Straight Perpetual of some kind. Volume was high.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.35%, equivalent to 6.96% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.6%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 235bp, unchanged from July 18.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2701 % 2,591.3
FixedFloater 4.13 % 3.42 % 35,033 18.54 1 0.0000 % 4,020.2
Floater 2.71 % 2.90 % 90,260 19.98 4 -0.2701 % 2,797.9
OpRet 4.60 % 3.31 % 85,922 0.83 3 -0.2421 % 2,623.4
SplitShare 4.66 % 4.47 % 56,690 3.91 6 -0.1662 % 2,972.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2421 % 2,398.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.62 % 4.54 % 105,220 0.58 12 -0.2147 % 2,285.1
Perpetual-Discount 5.34 % 5.35 % 141,769 14.83 26 -0.3397 % 2,412.3
FixedReset 4.97 % 3.60 % 238,250 3.97 84 -0.1072 % 2,474.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.08 % 4.55 % 203,557 6.85 43 -0.3341 % 2,378.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -3.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 21.84
Evaluated at bid price : 22.18
Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -2.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 21.86
Evaluated at bid price : 22.21
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium -2.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 24.02
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %
SLF.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.40
Bid-YTW : 6.30 %
GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible -1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.61
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.18
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.36 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 23.01
Evaluated at bid price : 23.92
Bid-YTW : 3.42 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.31
Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.57
Bid-YTW : 6.06 %
SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.19 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.59
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible -1.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.81
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 23.82
Evaluated at bid price : 24.19
Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
GWO.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.M FixedReset 311,863 RBC crossed blocks of 200,000 and 100,000 at 24.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.90
Bid-YTW : 3.47 %
RY.PR.T FixedReset 168,783 TD crossed 66,000 at 26.00; Scotia and Nesbitt crossed 50,000 each at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 2.22 %
BNS.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 134,199 RBC crossed blocks of 25,900 and 50,000 at 25.10, then bought 12,800 from National at the same price. National crossed 25,000 at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 4.46 %
ENB.PR.Y FixedReset 111,713 TD crossed blocks of 30,600 and 45,800, both at 24.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 23.05
Evaluated at bid price : 24.85
Bid-YTW : 3.97 %
RY.PR.I FixedReset 100,295 Nesbitt crossed 15,000 at 25.08 and 25,000 at 25.10. RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset 62,080 TD crossed 30,000 at 25.17.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 25.07
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %
There were 46 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 24.30 – 24.85
Spot Rate : 0.5500
Average : 0.3591

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.30
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %

ELF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.41 – 24.84
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.2856

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-07-24
Maturity Price : 24.02
Evaluated at bid price : 24.41
Bid-YTW : 5.66 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.45 – 22.88
Spot Rate : 0.4300
Average : 0.3119

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 5.79 %

NA.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.05 – 25.37
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2110

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.05
Bid-YTW : 4.23 %

GWO.PR.G Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.61 – 24.90
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.1905

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.61
Bid-YTW : 5.46 %

IAG.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.47 – 25.75
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1944

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.47
Bid-YTW : 3.88 %

One Response to “July 24, 2013”

  1. […] PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.47%, equivalent to 7.11% interest at the standard 1.3x equivalency factor. Long corporates now yield a little under 4.7%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 240bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 235bp reported July 24. […]

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