BoC Hikes Policy Rate to 4.75%; Prime Follows

June 7th, 2023

The Bank of Canada has announced it has:

increased its target for the overnight rate to 4¾%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4¾%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Globally, consumer price inflation is coming down, largely reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. While economic growth around the world is softening in the face of higher interest rates, major central banks are signalling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability. In the United States, the economy is slowing, although consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and the labour market is still tight. Economic growth has essentially stalled in Europe but upward pressure on core prices is persisting. Growth in China is expected to slow after surging in the first quarter. Financial conditions have tightened back to those seen before the bank failures in the United States and Switzerland.

Canada’s economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost from population gains. Demand for services continued to rebound. In addition, spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up. The labour market remains tight: higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labour. Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated.

CPI inflation ticked up in April to 4.4%, the first increase in 10 months, with prices for a broad range of goods and services coming in higher than expected. Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs. Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labour market. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer, as lower energy prices feed through and last year’s large price gains fall out of the yearly data. However, with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3½-4% range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target.

Based on the accumulation of evidence, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate, reflecting our view that monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2% target. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Mark Rendell in the Globe reports:

Interest-rate swaps, which capture market expectations about monetary policy, are now pricing in a roughly 60-per-cent chance of another rate hike in July, and an 85-per-cent chance of a rate hike by September, according to Refinitiv data.

The rate hike drew condemnation from across the political spectrum. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre called it “a disaster for the many Canadians barely hanging on,” and blamed government spending and budget deficits for pushing up inflation. Bea Bruske, president of the Canadian Labour Congress, said the bank’s move was “deeply disappointing.”

The central bank has come under political attack over the past year and a half – first for failing to keep inflation under control, then for its aggressive campaign to raise interest rates to bring inflation back down.

Prime followed:

Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad:

There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.

A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.

The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.

There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.

June 7, 2023

June 7th, 2023

TXPR closed at 534.62, up 0.69% on the day. Volume today was 1.07-million, above the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 10.59, down 0.47% on the day. Volume was 90,580, third-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 8.78, up 0.23% on the day. Volume was 91,020, third-lowest of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields roared up to 3.76% today on the back of the BoC policy hike.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 6.55%, equivalent to 8.52% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates yielded 5.23% on 2023-5-26 and since then the closing price has changed from 14.82 to 14.78, a decrease of 27bp in price, with a Duration of 12.21 (BMO doesn’t specify whether this is Macaulay or Modified Duration; I will assume Modified) which implies an increase in yield of about 2bp since 5/26 to 5.25%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) has narrowed sharply to about 325bp from the 345bp reported May 31.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.2681 % 2,159.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.2681 % 4,142.2
Floater 10.49 % 10.84 % 45,750 8.78 1 1.2681 % 2,387.1
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3342 % 3,337.8
SplitShare 4.82 % 7.32 % 43,093 2.24 7 0.3342 % 3,986.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.3342 % 3,110.1
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3500 % 2,660.8
Perpetual-Discount 6.41 % 6.55 % 41,430 13.07 31 -0.3500 % 2,901.4
FixedReset Disc 5.88 % 8.56 % 83,998 11.18 63 0.7916 % 2,120.3
Insurance Straight 6.38 % 6.44 % 58,444 13.36 19 -0.5970 % 2,819.9
FloatingReset 11.58 % 12.02 % 49,722 8.23 2 -0.1745 % 2,322.1
FixedReset Prem 6.97 % 6.99 % 306,377 3.77 1 0.0000 % 2,318.2
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.7916 % 2,167.4
FixedReset Ins Non 6.09 % 7.70 % 87,321 11.61 9 0.3650 % 2,329.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight -8.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -2.83 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 6.75 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 19.85
Evaluated at bid price : 19.85
Bid-YTW : 6.23 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 19.15
Evaluated at bid price : 19.15
Bid-YTW : 6.26 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 20.61
Evaluated at bid price : 20.61
Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
GWO.PR.Y Insurance Straight -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
TD.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 23.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.50
Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.07
Evaluated at bid price : 17.07
Bid-YTW : 8.54 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.68
Evaluated at bid price : 17.68
Bid-YTW : 8.54 %
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 23.50
Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 7.44 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
BN.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 16.20
Evaluated at bid price : 16.20
Bid-YTW : 9.97 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 9.50 %
BN.PR.B Floater 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 11.18
Evaluated at bid price : 11.18
Bid-YTW : 10.84 %
BN.PR.X FixedReset Disc 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 14.25
Evaluated at bid price : 14.25
Bid-YTW : 9.50 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 15.16
Evaluated at bid price : 15.16
Bid-YTW : 9.86 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 8.57 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.88
Evaluated at bid price : 17.88
Bid-YTW : 8.58 %
PVS.PR.K SplitShare 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2029-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.01
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 9.89 %
BN.PF.H FixedReset Disc 1.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 9.14 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 16.80
Evaluated at bid price : 16.80
Bid-YTW : 10.14 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 18.72
Evaluated at bid price : 18.72
Bid-YTW : 8.06 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 13.44
Evaluated at bid price : 13.44
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.92 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 11.67
Evaluated at bid price : 11.67
Bid-YTW : 9.36 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 8.43 %
BN.PF.J FixedReset Disc 2.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 8.07 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 5.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 12.40
Evaluated at bid price : 12.40
Bid-YTW : 9.42 %
BN.PF.E FixedReset Disc 8.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 14.59
Evaluated at bid price : 14.59
Bid-YTW : 10.37 %
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc 8.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 9.09 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 25,600 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 21.56
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 7.44 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc 25,298 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.66
Evaluated at bid price : 17.66
Bid-YTW : 8.56 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc 23,373 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 20.95
Evaluated at bid price : 20.95
Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 18,580 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.30
Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
BN.PF.B FixedReset Disc 16,590 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 16.20
Evaluated at bid price : 16.20
Bid-YTW : 9.97 %
MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight 14,900 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
There were 9 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.00 – 18.49
Spot Rate : 1.4900
Average : 0.9510

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 8.56 %

SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight Quote: 17.10 – 18.65
Spot Rate : 1.5500
Average : 1.0174

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 6.60 %

MFC.PR.B Insurance Straight Quote: 18.30 – 19.65
Spot Rate : 1.3500
Average : 0.8486

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 18.30
Evaluated at bid price : 18.30
Bid-YTW : 6.39 %

CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight Quote: 19.74 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 1.2600
Average : 0.8043

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 19.74
Evaluated at bid price : 19.74
Bid-YTW : 6.35 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 12.40 – 13.04
Spot Rate : 0.6400
Average : 0.4396

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 12.40
Evaluated at bid price : 12.40
Bid-YTW : 9.42 %

BMO.PR.F FixedReset Disc Quote: 23.78 – 24.39
Spot Rate : 0.6100
Average : 0.4217

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-07
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 23.78
Bid-YTW : 7.59 %

June 6, 2023

June 6th, 2023
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2725 % 2,132.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2725 % 4,090.3
Floater 10.62 % 10.98 % 46,072 8.69 1 0.2725 % 2,357.3
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3392 % 3,326.7
SplitShare 4.84 % 7.48 % 42,425 2.24 7 -0.3392 % 3,972.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3392 % 3,099.7
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0385 % 2,670.1
Perpetual-Discount 6.39 % 6.56 % 41,769 13.09 31 -0.0385 % 2,911.6
FixedReset Disc 5.93 % 8.34 % 85,440 11.37 63 0.0115 % 2,103.6
Insurance Straight 6.34 % 6.40 % 57,827 13.41 19 -0.1986 % 2,836.8
FloatingReset 11.24 % 11.61 % 46,620 8.48 2 0.2098 % 2,326.2
FixedReset Prem 6.97 % 6.95 % 310,439 12.40 1 0.1590 % 2,318.2
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0115 % 2,150.3
FixedReset Ins Non 6.12 % 7.45 % 86,151 11.90 9 0.3051 % 2,320.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc -8.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 9.65 %
BN.PF.E FixedReset Disc -5.86 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 13.50
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 10.82 %
CU.PR.J Perpetual-Discount -2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.54
Evaluated at bid price : 18.54
Bid-YTW : 6.46 %
PVS.PR.K SplitShare -1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2029-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.65
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount -1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
MIC.PR.A Perpetual-Discount -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 20.40
Evaluated at bid price : 20.40
Bid-YTW : 6.77 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
GWO.PR.G Insurance Straight -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 20.04
Evaluated at bid price : 20.04
Bid-YTW : 6.51 %
IFC.PR.F Insurance Straight -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 22.80
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
IFC.PR.K Perpetual-Discount -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 21.20
Evaluated at bid price : 21.20
Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.02
Evaluated at bid price : 17.02
Bid-YTW : 8.32 %
BN.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
GWO.PR.Y Insurance Straight 1.11 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.25
Evaluated at bid price : 18.25
Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.77 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.29
Evaluated at bid price : 18.29
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 15.24
Evaluated at bid price : 15.24
Bid-YTW : 9.70 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.10
Evaluated at bid price : 17.10
Bid-YTW : 8.41 %
GWO.PR.T Insurance Straight 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 20.18
Evaluated at bid price : 20.18
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Disc 1.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 22.55
Evaluated at bid price : 23.10
Bid-YTW : 7.38 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 21.47
Evaluated at bid price : 21.73
Bid-YTW : 7.27 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc 2.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.61
Evaluated at bid price : 17.61
Bid-YTW : 8.15 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset Disc 2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.00
Bid-YTW : 8.38 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc 3.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 15.85
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 8.82 %
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount 9.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 19.76
Evaluated at bid price : 19.76
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 289,412 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 14.95
Evaluated at bid price : 14.95
Bid-YTW : 9.65 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 277,633 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 15.24
Evaluated at bid price : 15.24
Bid-YTW : 9.70 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc 244,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 16.85
Evaluated at bid price : 16.85
Bid-YTW : 8.35 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 30,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 8.33 %
NA.PR.C FixedReset Prem 28,956 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : 6.95 %
MFC.PR.J FixedReset Ins Non 25,864 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 21.45
Evaluated at bid price : 21.45
Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc Quote: 18.05 – 19.97
Spot Rate : 1.9200
Average : 1.1521

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 18.05
Evaluated at bid price : 18.05
Bid-YTW : 9.65 %

BN.PF.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 13.50 – 14.50
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.6383

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 13.50
Evaluated at bid price : 13.50
Bid-YTW : 10.82 %

CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.50 – 18.90
Spot Rate : 1.4000
Average : 1.0425

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 8.38 %

TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.85 – 17.77
Spot Rate : 0.9200
Average : 0.6054

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 16.85
Evaluated at bid price : 16.85
Bid-YTW : 8.35 %

BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.60 – 18.50
Spot Rate : 0.9000
Average : 0.7312

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 8.25 %

BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.50 – 18.00
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3375

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-06
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 8.32 %

June 5, 2023

June 5th, 2023
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0909 % 2,126.8
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0909 % 4,079.2
Floater 10.65 % 11.00 % 46,611 8.67 1 0.0909 % 2,350.8
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0908 % 3,338.0
SplitShare 4.82 % 7.36 % 41,946 2.24 7 -0.0908 % 3,986.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0908 % 3,110.3
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3231 % 2,671.1
Perpetual-Discount 6.39 % 6.55 % 43,292 13.09 31 -0.3231 % 2,912.7
FixedReset Disc 5.93 % 8.36 % 83,485 11.32 63 0.5124 % 2,103.4
Insurance Straight 6.33 % 6.40 % 58,414 13.39 19 0.1721 % 2,842.5
FloatingReset 11.27 % 11.65 % 47,359 8.46 2 0.0000 % 2,321.3
FixedReset Prem 6.98 % 6.96 % 301,879 12.39 1 -0.0397 % 2,314.6
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5124 % 2,150.1
FixedReset Ins Non 6.14 % 7.45 % 86,814 11.90 9 0.3552 % 2,313.7
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount -8.44 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc -2.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 15.37
Evaluated at bid price : 15.37
Bid-YTW : 9.09 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.27
Evaluated at bid price : 18.27
Bid-YTW : 6.21 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Disc -1.49 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 11.90
Evaluated at bid price : 11.90
Bid-YTW : 9.56 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount -1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 20.76
Evaluated at bid price : 20.76
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non -1.07 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 21.35
Evaluated at bid price : 21.35
Bid-YTW : 7.40 %
PVS.PR.I SplitShare -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 7.36 %
BN.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 13.34
Evaluated at bid price : 13.34
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
BIP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 21.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 8.69 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.28 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 23.17
Evaluated at bid price : 23.74
Bid-YTW : 7.37 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 19.97
Evaluated at bid price : 19.97
Bid-YTW : 7.45 %
MIC.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 20.70
Evaluated at bid price : 20.70
Bid-YTW : 6.67 %
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 19.65
Evaluated at bid price : 19.65
Bid-YTW : 8.89 %
BN.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.10
Evaluated at bid price : 16.10
Bid-YTW : 9.68 %
CU.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.34
Evaluated at bid price : 18.34
Bid-YTW : 6.19 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 14.95
Evaluated at bid price : 14.95
Bid-YTW : 9.65 %
BN.PF.E FixedReset Disc 1.70 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 14.34
Evaluated at bid price : 14.34
Bid-YTW : 10.20 %
BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 8.91 %
BN.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 8.36 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 19.10
Evaluated at bid price : 19.10
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 10.70
Evaluated at bid price : 10.70
Bid-YTW : 10.40 %
BN.PF.G FixedReset Disc 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 14.72
Evaluated at bid price : 14.72
Bid-YTW : 10.15 %
BN.PR.R FixedReset Disc 2.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 13.14
Evaluated at bid price : 13.14
Bid-YTW : 10.09 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.40
Evaluated at bid price : 18.40
Bid-YTW : 7.89 %
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 15.03
Evaluated at bid price : 15.03
Bid-YTW : 9.83 %
TD.PF.E FixedReset Disc 3.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 8.23 %
SLF.PR.E Insurance Straight 9.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.73
Evaluated at bid price : 18.73
Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 356,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.92
Evaluated at bid price : 16.92
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc 155,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 8.88 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 121,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.85
Evaluated at bid price : 16.85
Bid-YTW : 8.35 %
CM.PR.S FixedReset Disc 118,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 20.96
Evaluated at bid price : 20.96
Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 93,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 21.23
Evaluated at bid price : 21.23
Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc 46,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.75
Evaluated at bid price : 16.75
Bid-YTW : 8.39 %
There were 16 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.L Perpetual-Discount Quote: 18.00 – 20.24
Spot Rate : 2.2400
Average : 1.4187

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 7.20 %

RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.92 – 17.95
Spot Rate : 1.0300
Average : 0.5966

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.92
Evaluated at bid price : 16.92
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %

NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.60 – 18.28
Spot Rate : 0.6800
Average : 0.4924

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 8.40 %

CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.65 – 17.25
Spot Rate : 0.6000
Average : 0.4473

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 16.65
Evaluated at bid price : 16.65
Bid-YTW : 8.44 %

IFC.PR.F Insurance Straight Quote: 21.14 – 22.14
Spot Rate : 1.0000
Average : 0.8667

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 21.14
Evaluated at bid price : 21.14
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %

FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.25 – 17.75
Spot Rate : 0.5000
Average : 0.3699

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-05
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 8.32 %

ENS.PR.A To Reset At 7.00%

June 5th, 2023

Middlefield Group Inc. has announced (on 2023-4-26):

The board of directors of E Split Corp. (the “Company”) has extended the maturity date of the Company for an additional 5-year term to June 30, 2028, as was detailed in the press release dated February 1, 2023.

The Company is pleased to announce that the distribution rate for the Preferred Shares for the new 5-year term from June 30, 2023 to June 30, 2028 will be $0.70 per annum (7.0% on the original issue price of $10) payable quarterly. The new distribution rate represents a 33.3% increase from the current $0.525 per annum distribution rate and provides investors with a competitive yield reflecting current market yields for preferred shares with similar terms. The new 5-year term extension also offers Preferred shareholders the opportunity to enjoy preferential cash dividends until June 30, 2028. Since inception from June 29, 2018 to March 31, 2023, the Preferred Share has delivered an attractive 5.3% per annum return.

In addition, the Company intends to maintain the targeted monthly Class A Share distribution rate at $0.13 per Class A Share. Since inception to March 31, 2023, the Class A shares have delivered a 11.1% per annum total return, including cash distributions of $7.01 per share. Class A shareholders also have the option to reinvest their cash distributions in a dividend reinvestment plan which is commission free to participants.

The term extension allows Class A shareholders to continue to have exposure to common shares of Enbridge Inc. (“Enbridge”), a leading North American pipeline, natural gas processing and distribution company, while benefiting from an attractive distribution rate of 11.0% per annum based on the April 25, 2023 net asset value per share and the opportunity for capital appreciation. As North America’s largest midstream company, Enbridge has generated highly predictable, resilient cash flow and has provided superior dividend growth and value creation through various
commodity price cycles.

In connection with the extension, Shareholders can continue to hold their shares of both Classes and receive the new, higher distribution rate on the Preferred Shares by taking no action. Shareholders who do not wish to continue their investment in the Company, will be able to retract Preferred Shares or Class A Shares on June 30, 2023 pursuant to a special retraction right and receive a retraction price that is calculated in the same way that such price would be calculated if the Company were to terminate on June 30, 2023. Pursuant to this option, the retraction price may be less than the market price if the shares are trading at a premium to net asset value. To exercise this retraction right, shareholders must provide notice to their investment dealer by May 31, 2023 at 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time). Alternatively, shareholders may sell their Preferred Shares and/or Class A Shares through their securities dealer for the market price at any time, potentially at a higher price than would be achieved through retraction.

E Split Corp. invests in common shares of Enbridge and intends to purchase Enbridge common shares from time to time in the market or through participation in future public offerings by Enbridge.

MAPF Performance: May, 2023

June 4th, 2023

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund’s Net Asset Value per Unit as of the close May 31, 2023, was $7.7956.

Performance was affected by BN.PR.R underperforming at -6.32% [repeating the last two month’s underperformance, but worse]; as did TRP.PR.D (-6.05%). This was partially mitigated by good performance from MIC.PR.A (+1.93%) and SLF.PR.G (-0.76%) [small holdings are not considered for mention here].

There is still a pronounced ‘risk-off’ sentiment in the market, but I feel it is only a matter of time before investors start paying attention to the fundamental risk of these instruments compared to their eye-popping interest-equivalent yields. In addition, the market appears to be giving considerable weight to Current Yield as a measure of valuation, ignoring or strongly deprecating the potential for large dividend increases on the next few years of resets.

FixedResets continue to yield more, in general, than PerpetualDiscounts; on April 28, I reported median YTWs of 8.64% and 6.59%, respectively, for these two indices; compare with mean Current Yields of 6.05% and 6.43%, respectively. RY.PR.J, to take a representative example, is calculated by HIMIPref™ as having a yield-to-worst of 8.55% at monthend (Current Yield of 4.60%); priced at 17.40, resetting 2025-5-24 at a spread of 274bp over GOC-5 (assumed to be constant at 3.61%) and currently paying 0.80 p.a. (3.20% annually). The next pay-date is 2023-8-24; it is trading cum-dividend.

If we plug the above data into the yield calculator for resets (which is discussed here), we arrive at a quarterly annualized yield of 8.38% for RY.PR.J (this is quarterly compounded yield, not semi-annually as in HIMIPref™ there are also implementation differences). To take this down to 17bp below the PerpetualDiscount median index yield of 6.59% (to account for the calculation methodological differences), which is to say 6.42%, requires the assumption that GOC-5 will be 1.93% forever, as opposed the ‘constant rate’ assumption of 3.61%. Well … pays yer money and take yer chances, gents! Assiduous Readers with long memories will liken this to all the calculations of Break-even Rate Shock when the puzzle represented the same problem with a different sign! Note that even if the unfavourable scenario of GOC-5 = 1.93% is realized, this has only reduced the yield of RY.PR.J to that of the median PerpetualDiscount yield, which isn’t the worst outcome one might fear from one’s investments!

It is of interest to note that the Solactive Laddered Canadian Preferred Share Index (used as the basis for the BMO Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF (ZPR)) is now showing a negative total return for the ten years ending May 31, 2023. Now that’s what I call a bear market! It should come as no surprise that retail, egged on by boneheaded advisors, has decided that this proves it will produce negative returns forever!

Returns to May 31, 2023
Period MAPF TXPR*
Total Return
CPD – according to Blackrock
One Month -3.90% -3.57% N/A
Three Months -7.65% -6.93% N/A
One Year -18.32% -14.86% -15.24%
Two Years (annualized) -8.95% -8.13% N/A
Three Years (annualized) +12.70% +6.30% +5.73%
Four Years (annualized) +4.30% +1.96% N/A
Five Years (annualized) -0.53% -0.53% -1.09%
Six Years (annualized) +2.06% +0.83% N/A
Seven Years (annualized) +4.73% +2.84% N/A
Eight Years (annualized) +1.94% +0.87% N/A
Nine Years (annualized) +1.53% +0.42% N/A
Ten Years (annualized) +1.63% +0.35% -0.12%
Eleven Years (annualized) +2.36% +0.82%  
Twelve Years (annualized) +2.11% +1.02%  
Thirteen Years (annualized) +3.85% +1.99%  
Fourteen Years (annualized) +4.93% +2.43%  
Fifteen Years (annualized) +6.27% +1.89%  
Sixteen Years (annualized) +6.04%    
Seventeen Years (annualized) +5.99%    
Eighteen Years (annualized) +5.95%    
Nineteen Years (annualized) +6.17%    
Twenty Years (annualized) +6.88%    
Twenty-One Years (annualized) +6.86%    
Twenty-Two Years (annualized) +7.28%    
MAPF returns assume reinvestment of distributions, and are shown after expenses but before fees.
The BMO Capital Markets “50” Preferred Share Index is no longer being calculated. The final performance report incorporating this venerable index was published as of December, 2020.
“TXPR” is the S&P/TSX Preferred Share Index. It is calculated without accounting for fees, but does assume reinvestment of dividends.
CPD Returns are for the NAV and are after all fees and expenses. Reinvestment of dividends is assumed.
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Income Fund (formerly Omega Preferred Equity) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -4.16%, -7.33% and -16.14%, respectively, according to Globe & Mail / Fundata after all fees & expenses. Three year performance is +7.48%; five year is +0.30%; ten year is +1.22%.

Figures from Morningstar are no longer conveniently available.

Manulife Preferred Income Class Adv has been terminated by Manulife. The performance of this fund was last reported here in March, 2018.
Figures for Horizons Active Preferred Share ETF (HPR) (which are after all fees and expenses) for 1-, 3- and 12-months are -3.78%, -6.80% & -15.48%, respectively. Three year performance is +8.47%, five-year is -0.69%, ten year is +1.06%
Figures for National Bank Preferred Equity Fund (formerly Altamira Preferred Equity Fund) are -3.85%, -6.92% and -15.69% for one-, three- and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is +8.40%; five-year is -0.60%; ten-year is +0.85%

Acccording to the fund’s fact sheet as of June 30, 2016, the fund’s inception date was October 30, 2015. I do not know how they justify this nonsensical statement, but will assume that prior performance is being suppressed in some perfectly legal manner that somebody at National considers ethical.

The last time Altamira Preferred Equity Fund’s performance was reported here was April, 2014; performance under the National Bank banner was first reported here May, 2014.

The figures for the NAV of BMO S&P/TSX Laddered Preferred Share Index ETF (ZPR) is -15.97% for the past twelve months. Two year performance is -8.20%, three year is +8.50%, five year is -0.63%, ten year is -0.59%
Figures for Fiera Canadian Preferred Share Class Cg Series F, (formerly Natixis Canadian Preferred Share Class Series F) (formerly NexGen Canadian Preferred Share Tax Managed Fund) are no longer available as the Fund is now the property of Canoe Financial. The last reported performance for the merged fund was May 2020.
Figures for BMO Preferred Share Fund (advisor series) according to BMO are -3.90%, -7.09% and -16.54% for the past one-, three- and twelve-months, respectively. Two year performance is -10.12%; three year is +4.92%; five-year is -2.97%.
Figures for PowerShares Canadian Preferred Share Index Class, Series F (PPS) are no longer available since the fund has been terminated. Performance was last reported for the fund to month-end, March 2023
Figures for the First Asset Preferred Share Investment Trust (PSF.UN) are no longer available since the fund has merged with First Asset Preferred Share ETF (FPR).

Performance for the fund was last reported here in September, 2016; the first report of unavailability was in October, 2016.

Figures for Lysander-Slater Preferred Share Dividend Fund (Class F) according to the company are -2.5%, -5.9% and -14.2% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Three year performance is +9.5%, five-year is -1.1%.
Figures for the Desjardins Canadian Preferred Share Fund A Class (A Class), as reported by the company are -3.54%, -6.64% and -14.92% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Two year performance is -8.84%, three-year is +5.38%, five-year is -1.92%
Figures for the RBC Canadian Preferred Share ETF (RPF) are reported by Morningstar as -3.92%, -8.75% and -17.42% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Three-year performance is +7.86%, five-year is -1.41%
Figures for the Dynamic Active Preferred Shares ETF (DXP) are -3.7%, -6.4% and -11.8% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Three-year performance is +11.1%; five-year is +1.0%
Figures for the Purpose Canadian Preferred Share Fund (Class F) are -3.68%, -8.55% and -18.51% for the past one, three and twelve months, respectively. Three-year performance is +10.96%; five-year is -1.17%; seven-year is +2.45%; ten-year is +4.12%.

The five-year Canada yield increased, with the five-year Canada yield (“GOC-5”) rising from 3.12% at April month-end to 3.61% at May month-end.

The Seniority Spread (between long-term corporate bonds and interest-equivalent PerpetualDiscounts) was 345bp as of 2023-5-31 (chart end-date 2023-5-12) :

The situation with FixedResets is interesting, with the spread between GOC-5 and the interest-adjusted FixedReset (Discount) rate widening significantly from its 2021-11-10 low of 344bp to its current level of 779bp (as of 2023-5-31) … (chart end-date 2023-5-12):

…while at the same time the interest-equivalent spread between FixedReset (Discounts) and PerpetualDiscounts has narrowed to -267bp (as of 2023-5-31) from its 2021-7-28 level of +170bp (chart end-date 2023-5-12):

There is no significant correlation between the Issue Reset Spread and 1-month performance for discounted FixedResets for either the Pfd-2 or Pfd-3 Group issues, which is normal because there is a lot of noise in this inefficient market.

However, the normally moderate correlations between Issue Reset Spread and three-month performance have disappeared again in this month’s check:

There were no significant correlations for either the Pfd-2 Group or the Pfd-3 Group for 1-Month performance against term-to-reset, although there seems to be some mitigating effect of a less than one-year term to reset against the overall poor performance:

… and for three-month performance against term-to-reset, there were again no correlations for either the Pfd-2 Group or the Pfd-3 Group:

It should be noted that to some extent such a dependence (of performance on term-to-reset) can be justified as the nearer-term issues will receive the benefit of higher projected dividend rates sooner as a result of higher GOC-5 yields and therefore, perhaps, for longer. Equations for the relationship between correlation slope and change in GOC-5 were derived in the August PrefLetter.

I keep talking about ‘Sustainable Income’ and nowadays it’s far higher than the dividends that are currently being distributed. This is because Sustainable Income is the average yield-to-worst (YTW) of the portfolio when the YTW is calculated to perpetuity (or to redemption, of course, if the yield to redemption is lower), including resets at the current GOC-5 rate. The sharp increase in GOC-5 in the past year has caused the difference between YTW and Current Yield to skyrocket, but one way or another I expect that these two values will become much closer – slowly at first, but quickening in about two years. We have to wait for the reset date of the MAPF portfolio securities before we see a change in actual cash receipts – and, of course, there is no guarantee whatsoever that the rate used for estimation purposes now will be used for the actual calculation in the future (chart prepared as of 2023-05-12).

Calculation of MAPF Sustainable Income Per Unit
Month NAVPU Portfolio
Average
YTW
Leverage
Divisor
Securities
Average
YTW
Capital
Gains
Multiplier
Sustainable
Income
per
current
Unit
June, 2007 9.3114 5.16% 1.03 5.01% 1.3240 0.3524
September 9.1489 5.35% 0.98 5.46% 1.3240 0.3773
December, 2007 9.0070 5.53% 0.942 5.87% 1.3240 0.3993
March, 2008 8.8512 6.17% 1.047 5.89% 1.3240 0.3938
June 8.3419 6.034% 0.952 6.338% 1.3240 $0.3993
September 8.1886 7.108% 0.969 7.335% 1.3240 $0.4537
December, 2008 8.0464 9.24% 1.008 9.166% 1.3240 $0.5571
March 2009 $8.8317 8.60% 0.995 8.802% 1.3240 $0.5872
June 10.9846 7.05% 0.999 7.057% 1.3240 $0.5855
September 12.3462 6.03% 0.998 6.042% 1.3240 $0.5634
December 2009 10.5662 5.74% 0.981 5.851% 1.1141 $0.5549
March 2010 10.2497 6.03% 0.992 6.079% 1.1141 $0.5593
June 10.5770 5.96% 0.996 5.984% 1.1141 $0.5681
September 11.3901 5.43% 0.980 5.540% 1.1141 $0.5664
December 2010 10.7659 5.37% 0.993 5.408% 1.0298 $0.5654
March, 2011 11.0560 6.00% 0.994 5.964% 1.0298 $0.6403
June 11.1194 5.87% 1.018 5.976% 1.0298 $0.6453
September 10.2709 6.10%
Note
1.001 6.106% 1.0298 $0.6090
December, 2011 10.0793 5.63%
Note
1.031 5.805% 1.0000 $0.5851
March, 2012 10.3944 5.13%
Note
0.996 5.109% 1.0000 $0.5310
June 10.2151 5.32%
Note
1.012 5.384% 1.0000 $0.5500
September 10.6703 4.61%
Note
0.997 4.624% 1.0000 $0.4934
December, 2012 10.8307 4.24% 0.989 4.287% 1.0000 $0.4643
March, 2013 10.9033 3.87% 0.996 3.886% 1.0000 $0.4237
June 10.3261 4.81% 0.998 4.80% 1.0000 $0.4957
September 10.0296 5.62% 0.996 5.643% 1.0000 $0.5660
December, 2013 9.8717 6.02% 1.008 5.972% 1.0000 $0.5895
March, 2014 10.2233 5.55% 0.998 5.561% 1.0000 $0.5685
June 10.5877 5.09% 0.998 5.100% 1.0000 $0.5395
September 10.4601 5.28% 0.997 5.296% 1.0000 $0.5540
December, 2014 10.5701 4.83% 1.009 4.787% 1.0000 $0.5060
March, 2015 9.9573 4.99% 1.001 4.985% 1.0000 $0.4964
June, 2015 9.4181 5.55% 1.002 5.539% 1.0000 $0.5217
September 7.8140 6.98% 0.999 6.987% 1.0000 $0.5460
December, 2015 8.1379 6.85% 0.997 6.871% 1.0000 $0.5592
March, 2016 7.4416 7.79% 0.998 7.805% 1.0000 $0.5808
June 7.6704 7.67% 1.011 7.587% 1.0000 $0.5819
September 8.0590 7.35% 0.993 7.402% 1.0000 $0.5965
December, 2016 8.5844 7.24% 0.990 7.313% 1.0000 $0.6278
March, 2017 9.3984 6.26% 0.994 6.298% 1.0000 $0.5919
June 9.5313 6.41% 0.998 6.423% 1.0000 $0.6122
September 9.7129 6.56% 0.998 6.573% 1.0000 $0.6384
December, 2017 10.0566 6.06% 1.004 6.036% 1.0000 $0.6070
March, 2018 10.2701 6.22% 1.007 6.177% 1.0000 $0.6344
June 10.2518 6.22% 0.995 6.251% 1.0000 $0.6408
September 10.2965 6.62% 1.018 6.503% 1.0000 $0.6696
December, 2018 8.6875 7.16% 0.997 7.182% 1.0000 $0.6240
March, 2019 8.4778 7.09% 1.007 7.041% 1.0000 $0.5969
June 8.0896 7.33% 0.996 7.359% 1.0000 $0.5953
September 7.7948 7.96% 0.998 7.976% 1.0000 $0.6217
December, 2019 8.0900 6.03% 0.995 6.060% 1.0000 $0.4903
March 5.5596 7.04% 1.006 6.998% 1.0000 $0.3891
June 6.3568 6.10% 0.9900 6.162% 1.0000 $0.3917
September 7.2852 5.32% 1.00 5.320% 1.0000 $0.3876
December, 2020 8.3947 4.46% 0.999 4.464% 1.0000 $0.3747
March, 2021 9.6473 4.48% 0.996 4.498% 1.0000 $0.4339
June 10.3712 3.92% 0.985 3.980% 1.0000 $0.4127
September 10.7572 4.08% 1.017 4.012% 1.0000 $0.4316
December, 2021 10.7432 4.31% 0.999 4.314% 1.0000 $0.4635
March, 2022 10.5040 5.53% 1.004 5.508% 1.0000 $0.5786
June 9.3115 7.04% 0.993 7.090% 1.0000 $0.6672
September 8.4093 8.10% 0.997 8.124% 1.0000 $0.6916
December, 2022 7.9921 8.47% 0.996 8.504% 1.0000 $0.6796
March 8.0788 7.90% 0.997 7.924% 1.0000 $0.6401
May, 2023 7.7956 9.24% 0.994 9.296% 1.0000 $0.7247
NAVPU is shown after quarterly distributions of dividend income and annual distribution of capital gains.
Portfolio YTW includes cash (or margin borrowing), with an assumed interest rate of 0.00%
The Leverage Divisor indicates the level of cash in the account: if the portfolio is 1% in cash, the Leverage Divisor will be 0.99
Securities YTW divides “Portfolio YTW” by the “Leverage Divisor” to show the average YTW on the securities held; this assumes that the cash is invested in (or raised from) all securities held, in proportion to their holdings.
The Capital Gains Multiplier adjusts for the effects of Capital Gains Dividends. On 2009-12-31, there was a capital gains distribution of $1.989262 which is assumed for this purpose to have been reinvested at the final price of $10.5662. Thus, a holder of one unit pre-distribution would have held 1.1883 units post-distribution; the CG Multiplier reflects this to make the time-series comparable. Note that Dividend Distributions are not assumed to be reinvested.
Sustainable Income is the resultant estimate of the fund’s dividend income per current unit, before fees and expenses. Note that a “current unit” includes reinvestment of prior capital gains; a unitholder would have had the calculated sustainable income with only, say, 0.9 units in the past which, with reinvestment of capital gains, would become 1.0 current units.
DeemedRetractibles are comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company or the regulator (definition refined in May, 2011). These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 (banks) or the Deemed Maturity date for insurers and insurance holding companies (see below)), in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See the Deemed Retractible Review: September 2016 for the rationale behind this analysis.

The same reasoning is also applied to FixedResets from these issuers, other than explicitly defined NVCC from banks.

In November, 2019, the assumption of DeemedRetraction for insurance issues was cancelled in the wake of the IAIS decision included in ICS 2.0. This resulted in a large drop in the yield calculated for these issues

The Deemed Maturity date for insurers was set at 2022-1-31 at the commencement of the process in February, 2011. It was extended to 2025-1-31 in April, 2013 and to 2030-1-31 in December, 2018. In November, 2019, the assumption of DeemedRetraction was cancelled in the wake of the IAIS decision included in ICS 2.0.
Yields for September, 2011, to January, 2012, were calculated by imposing a cap of 10% on the yields of YLO issues held, in order to avoid their extremely high calculated yields distorting the calculation and to reflect the uncertainty in the marketplace that these yields will be realized. From February to September 2012, yields on these issues have been set to zero. All YLO issues held were sold in October 2012.

These calculations were performed assuming constant contemporary GOC-5 and 3-Month Bill rates, as follows:

Canada Yields Assumed in Calculations
Month-end GOC-5 3-Month Bill
September, 2015 0.78% 0.40%
December, 2015 0.71% 0.46%
March, 2016 0.70% 0.44%
June 0.57% 0.47%
September 0.58% 0.53%
December, 2016 1.16% 0.47%
March, 2017 1.08% 0.55%
June 1.35% 0.69%
September 1.79% 0.97%
December, 2017 1.83% 1.00%
March, 2018 2.06% 1.08%
June 1.95% 1.22%
September 2.33% 1.55%
December, 2018 1.88% 1.65%
March, 2019 1.46% 1.66%
June 1.34% 1.66%
September 1.41% 1.66%
December, 2019 1.68% 1.68%
March, 2020 0.57% 0.21%
June 0.37% 0.21%
September 0.35% 0.14%
December, 2020 0.42% 0.08%
March, 2021 0.94% 0.09%
June 0.93% 0.13%
September 1.07% 0.13%
December, 2021 1.31% 0.16%
March, 2022 2.44% 0.53%
June 3.24% 2.11%
September 3.45% 3.60%
December, 2022 3.37% 4.35%
March 2.93% 4.44%
May, 2023 3.61% 4.73%

MAPF Portfolio Composition: May, 2023

June 3rd, 2023

Turnover declined to under 1% in May. With volatility and nervousness due to worries about financial stability, spreads were wide; in addition, high trading volumes in the early part of the year have left the portfolio in a highly optimized condition.

There was a sharp increase in the proportion of the portfolio due to be reset within one year; this was due to the simple passage of time, not to current-month trading. The fund holds significant positions in TRP.PR.D, NA.PR.S, RY.PR.Z and BMO.PR.S.

Sectoral distribution of the MAPF portfolio on May 31, 2023, were:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2023-5-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 0% N/A N/A
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualDiscount 6.5% 6.69% 12.86
Fixed-Reset Discount 73.6% 9.29% 10.63
Insurance – Straight 0% N/A N/A
FloatingReset 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Premium 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Bank non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
FixedReset Insurance non-NVCC 1.7% 9.12% 11.51
Scraps – Ratchet 1.5% 9.78% 10.38
Scraps – FixedFloater 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Floater 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – OpRet 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – SplitShare 2.3% 10.45% 1.34
Scraps – PerpPrem 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – PerpDisc 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FR Discount 5.4% 11.92% 8.97
Scraps – Insurance Straight 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FloatingReset 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – FR Premium 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Bank non-NVCC 0% N/A N/A
Scraps – Ins non-NVCC 8.3% 9.27% 11.10
Cash +0.6% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 9.24% 10.46
Totals and changes will not add precisely due to rounding. Cash is included in totals with duration and yield both equal to zero.
The various “Scraps” indices include issues with a DBRS rating of Pfd-3(high) or lower and issues with an Average Trading Value (calculated with HIMIPref™ methodology, which is relatively complex) of less than $25,000. The issues considered “Scraps” are subdivided into indices which reflect those of the main indices.
DeemedRetractibles were comprised of all Straight Perpetuals (both PerpetualDiscount and PerpetualPremium) issued by BMO, BNS, CM, ELF, GWO, HSB, IAG, MFC, NA, RY, SLF and TD, which are not exchangable into common at the option of the company or the regulator. These issues are analyzed as if their prospectuses included a requirement to redeem at par on or prior to 2022-1-31 in the case of banks or normally in the case of insurers and insurance holding companies, in addition to the call schedule explicitly defined. See the Deemed Retractible Review: September 2016 for the rationale behind this analysis and IAIS Says No To DeemedRetractions for the recent change in policy with respect to insurers.

Note that the estimate for the time this will become effective for insurers and insurance holding companies was extended by three years in April 2013, due to the delays in OSFI’s providing clarity on the issue and by a further five years in December, 2018; the estimate was eliminated in November. However, the distinctions are being kept because it is useful to distinguish insurance issues from others.

The name of this subindex has been changed to “Insurance Straight” as of November, 2020

Calculations of resettable instruments are performed assuming a constant GOC-5 rate of 3.61%, a constant 3-Month Bill rate of 4.73% and a constant Canada Prime Rate of 6.70%

The “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.). MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances, both credit and debit, to facilitate trading. Figures presented in the table have been rounded to the indicated precision.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2023-5-31
DBRS Rating MAPF Weighting
Pfd-1 0
Pfd-1(low) 0
Pfd-2(high) 45.8%
Pfd-2 20.8%
Pfd-2(low) 23.6%
Pfd-3(high) 3.2%
Pfd-3 3.8%
Pfd-3(low) 1.5%
Pfd-4(high) 0.6%
Pfd-4 0%
Pfd-4(low) 0%
Pfd-5(high) 0%
Pfd-5 0%
Cash +0.6%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.
A position held in INE.PR.A is not rated by DBRS nor by S&P, but has been included as “Pfd-4(high)” in the above table on the basis of its last S&P rating of P-4(high) and its BB rating from Fitch. A “BB” rating would normally map to Pfd-3, but the company’s disdain for the two major preferred share agencies makes me nervous.

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2023-5-31
Average Daily Trading MAPF Weighting
<$50,000 33.1%
$50,000 – $100,000 15.1%
$100,000 – $200,000 45.8%
$200,000 – $300,000 4.3%
>$300,000 1.0%
Cash +0.6%
Totals will not add precisely due to rounding.

The distribution of Issue Reset Spreads is:

Range MAPF Weight
<100bp 0%
100-149bp 10.0%
150-199bp 15.7%
200-249bp 58.7%
250-299bp 2.3%
300-349bp 2.2%
350-399bp 0%
400-449bp 0%
450-499bp 0%
500-549bp 0%
550-599bp 0%
>= 600bp 0%
Undefined 10.9%

Distribution of Floating Rate Start Dates is shown in the table below. This is the date of the next adjustment to the dividend rate, if the issue is currently paying a fixed rate for a limited time; which in practice is successive terms of 5 years. Issues that adjust quarterly are considered “Currently Floating”.

Range MAPF Weight
Currently Floating 1.5%
0-1 Year 23.9%
1-2 Years 34.2%
2-3 Years 19.0%
3-4 Years 12.0%
4-5 Years 0%
5-6 Years 0%
>6 Years 0%
Not Floating Rate 9.4%

MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available the fund’s web page. The fund may be purchased directly from Hymas Investment Management. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but are not sold with a prospectus This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission). Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

June 2, 2023

June 2nd, 2023

TXPR closed at 530.35, up 0.90% on the day. Volume today was 852,710, a little below the median of the past 21 trading days.

CPD closed at 10.64, up 1.53% on the day. Volume was 57,180, fourth-highest of the past 21 trading days.

ZPR closed at 8.71, up 1.16% on the day. Volume was 128,000, below the median of the past 21 trading days.

Five-year Canada yields up to 3.52% today.

Jobs, jobs, jobs!:

U.S. employers added 339,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said on Friday, an increase from a revised total of 294,000 in April.

The strong figures emerged from a survey of employers. A separate component of the report, based on a survey of households, yielded a somewhat dissonant picture.

That data showed a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7 percent, from 3.4 percent, and a decrease of 310,000 in the number of people employed, as participation in the labor force was little changed.

In a sign that the pressure to entice workers with pay increases is easing, wage growth slowed slightly in May, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.3 percent from April, and 4.3 percent over the year.

How can job growth accelerate while the unemployment rate rises? The two figures come from different surveys, one of businesses (the source of the monthly payroll figure) and one of households (the source of the unemployment rate). Over time, the two typically tell consistent stories. but they can diverge in any given month.

Often, that divergence is nothing more than noise. But sometimes, it reflects something real happening in the economy. That’s because the two surveys measure different things: The survey of households, for example, includes gig workers and other people doing nontraditional jobs that aren’t counted in the business survey.

That appears to be what happened last month. In May, “unincorporated self-employment” — which includes gig workers, independent contractors and some small businesses — fell by 369,000, the third straight monthly decrease. Looking just at people working in more traditional jobs, employment rose in both surveys last month.

The share of people in their prime working years — 25- to 54-years-old — participating in the labor market reached 83.4 percent in May, a level not seen since 2007.

Investors have added to bets on the Fed raising interest rates in June. Still, bets remain skewed toward the central bank holding rates at their current level, in a range between 5 percent and 5.25 percent.

And the US debt limit will be out of the headlines for the next two years:

After weeks of political impasse, tense negotiations and mounting economic anxiety, the Senate gave final approval on Thursday night to bipartisan legislation suspending the debt limit and imposing new spending caps, sending it to President Biden and ending the possibility of a calamitous government default.

The approval by the Senate on a 63-to-36 vote brought to a close a political showdown that began brewing as soon as Republicans narrowly won the House in November, promising to use their new majority and the threat of a default to try to extract spending and policy concessions from Mr. Biden.

The Canaccord deal (last mentioned May 8) continues to appear dubious:

Canaccord Genuity Group Inc CF-T -7.03%decrease
management-led consortium said on Friday its $1.13-billion take-private offer may not result in a deal as there was “no reasonable chance” its conditions would be met by the expiry date.

This comes just a month after the management warned of delays in securing regulatory approvals for the offer, first announced in January.

The management has made no final decision on extending the June 13 deadline for the offer, which was opposed by a special committee of independent directors at the Canadian firm in February.

And, for what it’s worth, my faith in the company’s governance also continues to be dubious.

Toronto real estate continues to impress:

Toronto’s housing market recovered further in May, with sales and home prices climbing for the fourth consecutive month, as the shortage of properties for sale fuelled competition among buyers.

The home price index, which excludes the highest valued properties, increased by 1.6 per cent to $1,164,400 from April to May, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, or TRREB. Adjusting for seasonal influences, the home price index was up 3.2 per cent to $1,139,600.

Sales rose by 5 per cent month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis. And although new listings increased by 10 per cent as more homeowners put their properties on the market, the volume was about 50 per cent below the 10-year average for May.

Sales represented more than 70 per cent of the new listings, the second consecutive month of similar conditions. TRREB’s chief market analyst Jason Mercer said a measurement this high “represents a very tight market supporting strong price growth.” The last time the market was this tight was at the peak of the pandemic’s real estate boom in January of last year.

Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain, gave a speech titled The European Central Bank’s monetary policy in response to the price stability challenge:

From a monetary policy perspective, it must be borne in mind that this inflation forecast – which, I stress, is compatible with our medium-term price stability target – is based, among other assumptions, on market expectations for our interest rates that envisage the deposit facility rate peaking at around 3.75% in the coming months, holding at that level over the following quarters and only gradually falling from 2024 Q2.

Although no new projections were available in May, the latest data published since the March projections were prepared show, firstly, that economic activity has performed in line with the forecast. Thus, euro area GDP grew 0.1% in Q1 and the partial and essentially qualitative information available for Q2 suggests a slight acceleration. By component, private consumption remained weak, but the labour market continued to prove robust: the unemployment rate stood at historically low levels (6.9% in March, almost 1 pp below the February 2020 rate), although hours worked were still 1.6% below the pre-pandemic level.

Inflation of 7% in April was slightly higher than expected, while financial conditions tightened further – as a result, above all, of an even stronger euro exchange rate – and energy prices were at somewhat lower levels than those incorporated into the March projections.

All this information led us to consider that the medium-term inflation outlook in the March projections essentially remained valid. In this respect, the International Monetary Fund projections published on 18 April forecast a similar GDP and inflation outlook to that of the Eurosystem.

Underlying inflation (i.e. excluding energy and food) fell slightly in April, to 5.6%, but was higher than expected, after reaching a record high of 5.7% in March. Other indicators confirm that underlying price pressures remain strong. First, inflation rates for the underlying inflation components most exposed to higher energy prices,3 which increased by 4.5 pp over the course of 2022 (to 7.2% in December), have continued to rise and stood at 7.7% in April. Second, the price growth of those items most affected by the recovery in demand after the pandemic restrictions were lifted, such as those related to transport and household equipment and maintenance, shows signs of stabilising, albeit at levels that remain high (above 7%).4

In addition, inflation rates for the components related to recreation, food service activities and tourism reached an all-time high of 7.5% in March (7.4% in April). Lastly, inflation rates for the rest of the items, which account for more than 30% of the consumption basket, held at 3.6%5 in April, with the prices of more than half of the items
growing at rates of over 4%.

Nonetheless, various short-term underlying inflation indicators – measured in month-onmonth or quarter-on-quarter terms – have started to ease somewhat. In this respect, nonenergy industrial goods inflation fell from 6.6% in March
to 6.2% in April.

At the same time, wage pressures have continued to increase, with compensation per employee and per hour growing by 5% and 4.3%, respectively, in 2022 Q4 (3.9% and 2.9% in Q3). In any event, this is in line with the March projections.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2256 % 2,124.9
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.2256 % 4,075.5
Floater 10.61 % 10.89 % 21,979 8.76 2 -0.2256 % 2,348.7
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0860 % 3,341.0
SplitShare 5.03 % 7.34 % 40,300 2.53 7 0.0860 % 3,989.9
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0860 % 3,113.1
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5194 % 2,679.8
Perpetual-Discount 6.37 % 6.52 % 39,522 13.12 34 0.5194 % 2,922.2
FixedReset Disc 5.96 % 8.49 % 80,970 11.23 63 1.1006 % 2,092.7
Insurance Straight 6.34 % 6.37 % 59,344 13.42 19 0.5080 % 2,837.6
FloatingReset 11.18 % 11.55 % 47,017 8.53 2 0.5980 % 2,321.3
FixedReset Prem 6.98 % 7.00 % 290,851 3.79 1 0.2789 % 2,315.5
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 1.1006 % 2,139.1
FixedReset Ins Non 6.05 % 7.60 % 84,529 11.80 11 1.2365 % 2,305.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.71 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.24
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 8.10 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc -1.41 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 10.68 %
TD.PF.L FixedReset Disc -1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.98
Evaluated at bid price : 22.56
Bid-YTW : 7.61 %
MFC.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.10
Evaluated at bid price : 18.10
Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset Disc 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 8.50 %
CM.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 7.63 %
PWF.PR.E Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.22
Evaluated at bid price : 21.22
Bid-YTW : 6.58 %
MFC.PR.K FixedReset Ins Non 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 8.14 %
PVS.PR.K SplitShare 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2029-05-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.00
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
PWF.PR.Z Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.03
Evaluated at bid price : 20.03
Bid-YTW : 6.52 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.75
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.40
Evaluated at bid price : 17.40
Bid-YTW : 8.44 %
BN.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.00
Evaluated at bid price : 18.00
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 11.76
Evaluated at bid price : 11.76
Bid-YTW : 9.62 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.45
Evaluated at bid price : 16.45
Bid-YTW : 10.12 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.47
Evaluated at bid price : 19.47
Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
BN.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 12.86
Evaluated at bid price : 12.86
Bid-YTW : 10.37 %
BN.PF.G FixedReset Disc 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 14.44
Evaluated at bid price : 14.44
Bid-YTW : 10.41 %
RY.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.27 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.81
Evaluated at bid price : 16.81
Bid-YTW : 8.55 %
RY.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.70
Evaluated at bid price : 19.70
Bid-YTW : 7.62 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 1.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.45
Evaluated at bid price : 16.45
Bid-YTW : 8.64 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 14.70
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 9.89 %
MFC.PR.I FixedReset Ins Non 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.30
Evaluated at bid price : 21.58
Bid-YTW : 7.36 %
CM.PR.Q FixedReset Disc 1.46 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 8.51 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset Disc 1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.90
Evaluated at bid price : 16.90
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %
BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 18.17
Evaluated at bid price : 18.17
Bid-YTW : 9.16 %
CM.PR.O FixedReset Disc 1.52 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.70
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.68 %
CCS.PR.C Insurance Straight 1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.90
Evaluated at bid price : 19.90
Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
TD.PF.D FixedReset Disc 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.57
Evaluated at bid price : 17.57
Bid-YTW : 8.42 %
NA.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.57 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.49
Evaluated at bid price : 17.49
Bid-YTW : 8.53 %
GWO.PR.M Insurance Straight 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 22.22
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset Disc 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.22
Evaluated at bid price : 10.22
Bid-YTW : 10.64 %
BN.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
BN.PF.B FixedReset Disc 1.60 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.85
Evaluated at bid price : 15.85
Bid-YTW : 9.92 %
MFC.PR.N FixedReset Ins Non 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.70
Evaluated at bid price : 15.70
Bid-YTW : 8.99 %
TD.PF.J FixedReset Disc 1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.49
Bid-YTW : 7.24 %
CM.PR.P FixedReset Disc 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.50
Evaluated at bid price : 16.50
Bid-YTW : 8.59 %
BN.PR.T FixedReset Disc 1.85 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 13.20
Evaluated at bid price : 13.20
Bid-YTW : 10.23 %
TRP.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.88 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 9.43 %
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc 1.89 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.36
Evaluated at bid price : 19.36
Bid-YTW : 9.06 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.05
Evaluated at bid price : 16.05
Bid-YTW : 8.97 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.94 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.00
Bid-YTW : 7.53 %
BN.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.95 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.75
Evaluated at bid price : 17.75
Bid-YTW : 6.84 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 1.99 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
BN.PR.X FixedReset Disc 2.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 9.45 %
RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc 2.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.16
Evaluated at bid price : 17.16
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Ins Non 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 9.20 %
BN.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 2.13 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 19.20
Evaluated at bid price : 19.20
Bid-YTW : 8.56 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset Disc 2.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.64
Evaluated at bid price : 16.64
Bid-YTW : 8.60 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Discount 2.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.03
Evaluated at bid price : 21.03
Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc 2.42 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 8.61 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 2.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.70
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.49 %
TD.PF.M FixedReset Disc 2.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 7.48 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 2.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.11
Evaluated at bid price : 21.11
Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
TD.PF.C FixedReset Disc 2.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.70
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.49 %
FTS.PR.K FixedReset Disc 2.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 8.96 %
BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc 3.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 8.36 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 5.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BN.PF.H FixedReset Disc 67,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.35
Evaluated at bid price : 20.35
Bid-YTW : 9.07 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 27,300 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.70
Evaluated at bid price : 16.70
Bid-YTW : 8.49 %
BN.PF.J FixedReset Disc 25,000 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 21.05
Evaluated at bid price : 21.05
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 24,868 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %
TRP.PR.C FixedReset Disc 18,249 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 10.50
Evaluated at bid price : 10.50
Bid-YTW : 10.68 %
NA.PR.W FixedReset Disc 17,150 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 16.51
Evaluated at bid price : 16.51
Bid-YTW : 8.61 %
There were 5 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.T Insurance Straight Quote: 20.02 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 3.1800
Average : 1.8477

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 20.02
Evaluated at bid price : 20.02
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %

CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.93 – 22.72
Spot Rate : 4.7900
Average : 3.7870

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.93
Evaluated at bid price : 17.93
Bid-YTW : 8.14 %

RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.95 – 20.00
Spot Rate : 2.0500
Average : 1.2780

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.95
Evaluated at bid price : 17.95
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %

RY.PR.M FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.16 – 18.75
Spot Rate : 1.5900
Average : 1.0598

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.16
Evaluated at bid price : 17.16
Bid-YTW : 8.31 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.70 – 17.45
Spot Rate : 2.7500
Average : 2.2550

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 14.70
Evaluated at bid price : 14.70
Bid-YTW : 9.89 %

BN.PF.C Perpetual-Discount Quote: 17.80 – 19.19
Spot Rate : 1.3900
Average : 0.9177

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-02
Maturity Price : 17.80
Evaluated at bid price : 17.80
Bid-YTW : 6.96 %

June 1, 2023

June 1st, 2023

The current issue of IMF’s F&D magazine is devoted to globalization this week:

Mounting disillusionment with globalization has consequences. Yale’s Pinelopi Goldberg concludes that protectionism would make the world less resilient and more conflict-prone. Dartmouth’s Doug Irwin says history shows industrial policies and subsidies could leave countries worse off. Growing global tensions, notes the IMF’s Michele Ruta, may push regional trade alliances toward less integration and more discrimination. And smaller economies may be sidelined as the world fragments into rival trading blocs. Some will find it advantageous to remain nonaligned, says Oxford’s Ngaire Woods.

But the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva and the World Trade Organization’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala appeal to countries to keep faith in trade as a transformative force that has lifted many millions out of poverty and call for a strengthening of multilateral institutions. Other contributors advocate for a new political consensus to resolve competing demands on the global trading system, taking into account structural changes in the global economy.

Michelle W Bowman, Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, gave a short speech at a Fed Listens event:

In the near term, higher interest rates intended to lower inflation work most directly in the housing market. While we expect lower rents will eventually be reflected in inflation data as new leases make their way into the calculations, the residential real estate market appears to be rebounding, with home prices leveling out recently, which has implications for our fight to lower inflation.

The pandemic abruptly changed the lives of most Americans and their families, and it fed a surge of demand for those who sought larger homes. It ushered in a wave of homebuilding and renovation that was a significant contributing factor for inflation and supply chain challenges. Much of that initial inflation has moderated, but it will be important to understand the long-term effect of the pandemic environment on household formation and housing demand going forward.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, gave a speech titled The Fight Against Inflation:

Underlying inflation refers to the slow-moving part of inflation which, when temporary shocks have faded, will persist into the medium term. Therefore, by looking at underlying inflation, we can be more confident that inflation is on the right path. And it has an important benefit – measures of underlying inflation can be observed in real time.

However, there is no clear evidence that underlying inflation has peaked. To date, all measures monitored by the ECB are still strong. And whether they remain so will depend mainly on the balance between two forces: energy prices and wages.

On the one hand, as energy is an important input into every economic activity, the sharp rise in energy prices last year has fed through to all prices – including those that make up our various measures of underlying inflation.
But energy prices have dropped considerably since then, which should have the opposite effect. HICP energy inflation in Germany fell from 44.2% in September 2022 to 9.4% in April 2023.

This decline in energy costs for both consumers and producers should, in turn, limit firms’ ability to further raise profit margins, which has been a key factor driving recent price pressures in the euro area.

Consumers are less likely to accept disproportionate price rises when they know that firms are saving on their energy bills.

On the other hand, mounting wage pressures are becoming a more important driver of inflation. So far, workers have faced a significant loss from the erosion in overall labour income caused by the energy crisis. In the euro area, real wages at the end of last year were still around 4 percentage points below prepandemic levels.

But labour markets across the euro area are tight and workers have considerable bargaining power, which they are starting to use to recoup these losses. This is especially visible here in Germany, where labour shortages reached historic highs in the second half of last year, leading to strong wage agreements in many sectors. Wage growth in Germany increased from 3.9% in the fourth quarter of last year to 5.1% in the first quarter of this year.

To be clear: a period of catch-up wage growth need not cause unduly persistent inflation over time – if the costs of the energy shock are ultimately shared in a balanced way between firms and workers. But if we start to see what I have called “tit-for-tat” inflation – with both parties trying to offset any real income losses – we could see a negative spiral taking hold.

The ECB cannot allow this to happen. And since profits are ultimately influenced by the business cycle, it is our responsibility to restrict demand enough to prevent such a spiral. That should, in turn, lead to slower margin growth and lower wage demands while reducing pressure in the labour market.

But to gauge whether rates are sufficiently restrictive, we need to know how much traction our policy tightening is having – and is likely to have – on spending in the economy.

That is why policy transmission is the third element we are looking at.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2261 % 2,129.7
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2261 % 4,084.7
Floater 10.58 % 10.85 % 22,928 8.79 2 0.2261 % 2,354.0
OpRet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0799 % 3,338.2
SplitShare 5.04 % 7.26 % 40,073 2.54 7 0.0799 % 3,986.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0799 % 3,110.4
Perpetual-Premium 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5147 % 2,665.9
Perpetual-Discount 6.40 % 6.54 % 41,155 13.08 34 0.5147 % 2,907.1
FixedReset Disc 6.02 % 8.62 % 81,174 11.08 63 0.4794 % 2,069.9
Insurance Straight 6.37 % 6.41 % 60,018 13.38 19 0.8612 % 2,823.2
FloatingReset 11.25 % 11.63 % 46,474 8.48 2 0.2822 % 2,307.5
FixedReset Prem 7.00 % 7.02 % 302,204 12.35 1 -0.2385 % 2,309.0
FixedReset Bank Non 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4794 % 2,115.9
FixedReset Ins Non 6.12 % 7.62 % 84,942 11.76 11 0.3713 % 2,277.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
PWF.PR.P FixedReset Disc -1.53 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 11.62
Evaluated at bid price : 11.62
Bid-YTW : 9.72 %
BN.PF.I FixedReset Disc -1.30 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.00
Evaluated at bid price : 19.00
Bid-YTW : 9.23 %
BIP.PR.A FixedReset Disc -1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.25
Evaluated at bid price : 16.25
Bid-YTW : 10.24 %
BIP.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.79
Evaluated at bid price : 18.79
Bid-YTW : 8.63 %
BN.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.41
Evaluated at bid price : 17.41
Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.50
Evaluated at bid price : 18.50
Bid-YTW : 6.13 %
PWF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 22.71
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
POW.PR.A Perpetual-Discount 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 21.49
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 6.54 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset Disc 1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.24
Evaluated at bid price : 16.24
Bid-YTW : 8.75 %
RY.PR.J FixedReset Disc 1.15 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.60
Evaluated at bid price : 17.60
Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
BMO.PR.S FixedReset Disc 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.20
Evaluated at bid price : 17.20
Bid-YTW : 8.54 %
GWO.PR.H Insurance Straight 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.85
Evaluated at bid price : 18.85
Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
RY.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 1.18 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 21.41
Evaluated at bid price : 21.41
Bid-YTW : 5.77 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset Disc 1.47 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.25
Evaluated at bid price : 17.25
Bid-YTW : 8.40 %
BMO.PR.E FixedReset Disc 1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.60
Evaluated at bid price : 20.60
Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 13.05
Evaluated at bid price : 13.05
Bid-YTW : 10.06 %
IFC.PR.G FixedReset Ins Non 1.56 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.80
Evaluated at bid price : 20.80
Bid-YTW : 7.58 %
BN.PR.Z FixedReset Disc 1.62 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.80
Evaluated at bid price : 18.80
Bid-YTW : 8.74 %
BN.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.66 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.79
Evaluated at bid price : 17.79
Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Discount 1.68 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 22.09
Evaluated at bid price : 22.37
Bid-YTW : 6.56 %
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Disc 1.69 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 12.00
Evaluated at bid price : 12.00
Bid-YTW : 9.56 %
BIK.PR.A FixedReset Disc 1.74 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 22.80
Evaluated at bid price : 23.40
Bid-YTW : 7.97 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset Disc 1.81 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.35
Evaluated at bid price : 16.35
Bid-YTW : 9.03 %
BMO.PR.F FixedReset Disc 1.82 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 22.88
Evaluated at bid price : 23.44
Bid-YTW : 7.52 %
BN.PR.R FixedReset Disc 1.93 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 12.70
Evaluated at bid price : 12.70
Bid-YTW : 10.49 %
BN.PR.M Perpetual-Discount 2.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.50
Evaluated at bid price : 17.50
Bid-YTW : 6.93 %
BN.PF.A FixedReset Disc 2.29 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.90
Evaluated at bid price : 17.90
Bid-YTW : 9.30 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc 2.76 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 10.03 %
RY.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 3.61 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 21.50
Evaluated at bid price : 21.50
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
GWO.PR.P Insurance Straight 3.73 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.85
Evaluated at bid price : 20.85
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %
SLF.PR.C Insurance Straight 6.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 18.15
Evaluated at bid price : 18.15
Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Disc 135,947 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 14.66
Evaluated at bid price : 14.66
Bid-YTW : 10.16 %
BN.PF.J FixedReset Disc 79,400 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.90
Evaluated at bid price : 20.90
Bid-YTW : 8.03 %
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Ins Non 42,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 15.51
Evaluated at bid price : 15.51
Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
TD.PF.A FixedReset Disc 41,800 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.30
Evaluated at bid price : 16.30
Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
TD.PF.M FixedReset Disc 36,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 22.53
Evaluated at bid price : 23.01
Bid-YTW : 7.67 %
TD.PF.K FixedReset Disc 28,500 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 7.59 %
There were 4 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset Disc Quote: 17.89 – 22.72
Spot Rate : 4.8300
Average : 2.6873

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 17.89
Evaluated at bid price : 17.89
Bid-YTW : 8.15 %

TRP.PR.E FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.50 – 17.45
Spot Rate : 2.9500
Average : 1.7124

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 14.50
Evaluated at bid price : 14.50
Bid-YTW : 10.03 %

BMO.PR.Y FixedReset Disc Quote: 16.88 – 19.05
Spot Rate : 2.1700
Average : 1.3007

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 16.88
Evaluated at bid price : 16.88
Bid-YTW : 8.65 %

MFC.PR.M FixedReset Ins Non Quote: 15.75 – 17.50
Spot Rate : 1.7500
Average : 1.0374

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 15.75
Evaluated at bid price : 15.75
Bid-YTW : 9.14 %

BN.PF.G FixedReset Disc Quote: 14.26 – 16.00
Spot Rate : 1.7400
Average : 1.0275

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 14.26
Evaluated at bid price : 14.26
Bid-YTW : 10.54 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 19.23 – 20.60
Spot Rate : 1.3700
Average : 0.8917

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2053-06-01
Maturity Price : 19.23
Evaluated at bid price : 19.23
Bid-YTW : 6.22 %

CPX.PR.E To Reset To 6.631%

May 31st, 2023

Capital Power Corporation has announced:

that it has notified registered shareholders of its Cumulative Rate Reset Preference Shares, Series 5 (Series 5 Shares) (TSX: CPX.PR.E) of the Conversion Privilege and Dividend Rate Notice.

Subject to certain conditions, beginning on May 31, 2023 and ending at 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 15, 2023, each registered holder of Series 5 Shares will have the right to elect to convert any or all of their Series 5 Shares into an equal number of Cumulative Floating Rate Preference Shares, Series 6 (Series 6 Shares) by delivering an Election Notice to the Corporation.

If Capital Power does not receive an Election Notice from a holder of Series 5 Shares during the time fixed therefor, then the Series 5 Shares shall be deemed not to have been converted (except in the case of an Automatic Conversion, see below). Holders of the Series 5 Shares and the Series 6 Shares will have the opportunity to convert their shares again on June 30, 2028, and every five years thereafter as long as the shares remain outstanding.

Effective June 30, 2023, on May 31, 2023, the Annual Fixed Dividend Rate for the Series 5 Shares was set for the next five-year period at 6.63100%. Effective June 30, 2023, on May 31, 2023, the Floating Quarterly Dividend Rate for the Series 6 Shares was set for the first Quarterly Floating Rate Period (being the period from and including June 30, 2023, to but excluding September 30, 2023) at 1.94410%. The Floating Quarterly Dividend Rate will be reset every quarter.

The Series 5 Shares are issued in “book entry only” form and, as such, the sole registered holder of the Series 5 Shares is CDS Clearing and Depository Services Inc. (CDS). All rights of beneficial holders of Series 5 Shares must be exercised through CDS or the CDS participant through which the Series 5 Shares are held. The deadline for the registered shareholder to provide notice of exercise of the right to convert Series 5 Shares into Series 6 Shares is 3:00 p.m. (MT) / 5:00 p.m. (ET) on June 15, 2023. Any Election Notices received after this deadline will not be valid. As such, beneficial holders of Series 5 Shares who wish to exercise their rights to convert their shares should contact their broker or other intermediary for more information and it is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide the broker or other intermediary with time to complete the necessary steps.

After June 15, 2023, (i) if Capital Power determines that there would remain outstanding on June 30, 2023, less than 1,000,000 Series 5 Shares, all remaining Series 5 Shares will be automatically converted into Series 6 Shares on a one-for-one basis effective June 30, 2023 (an Automatic Conversion); or (ii) if Capital Power determines that there would remain outstanding after June 30, 2023, less than 1,000,000 Series 6 Shares, no Series 5 Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series 6 Shares effective June 30, 2023. There are currently 8,000,000 Series 5 Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 6 Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 6 Shares is subject to the Capital Power fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and upon approval, the Series 6 Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol CPX.PR.F.

For more information on the terms of, rates and risks associated with an investment in, the Series 5 Shares and the Series 6 Shares, please see Capital Power’s prospectus supplement dated March 7, 2013 which is available on sedar.com or on Capital Power’s website at capitalpower.com.

CPX.PR.E was issued as a FixedReset, 4.50%+315, that commenced trading 2013-3-14 after being announced 2013-3-5. The issue reset to 5.238% in 2018 and there was no conversion. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps subindex on credit concerns.