June 18, 2013

It’s nice to see someone with a brain making an impact amidst all the SEC lawyers:

Concern that American stock markets have become more susceptible to split-second crashes due to computerization isn’t supported by the data, a Securities and Exchange Commission official said.

Most “mini-flash crashes,” a term sometimes applied when an individual U.S. stock briefly surges or plunges for no obvious reason, are the result of human errors, not broken software, said Gregg Berman, head of the SEC’s Office of Analytics and Research.

In September, the Senate Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investment held hearings on the impact of computerized trading amid concern algorithmic and high-frequency strategies are contributing to investor uncertainty.

“A popular meme has emerged that, taken collectively, sudden price spikes indicate a broken market” and may be harbingers of another crash like the one in 2010, Berman said in New York today at a conference sponsored by the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Critics who blame everything on electronic trading “may be looking in the wrong place,” he said.

DBRS has downgraded the debt of TCA and TRP but left the preferred share ratings unchanged:

DBRS has today downgraded the Issuer Rating and Unsecured Debentures & Notes rating of TransCanada PipeLines Limited (TCPL) to A (low) from “A”, the Junior Subordinated Notes rating of TCPL to BBB from BBB (high) and the Medium-Term Notes & Unsecured Debentures rating of NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL), a wholly owned subsidiary of TCPL, to A (low) from “A”, all with Stable trends. The NGTL rating action reflects DBRS’s view that continued financial and liquidity support from TCPL is key to NGTL’s long-term debt rating.

DBRS has also confirmed the preferred share ratings of TCPL and of TransCanada Corporation (TCC, TCPL’s parent company) at Pfd-2 (low) with Stable trends, reflecting DBRS’s belief that the existing ratings are already conservative relative to TCPL’s Issuer Rating and that DBRS views it as unlikely that any debt instruments will be issued at TCC. These actions remove all of the above-noted ratings from Under Review with Negative Implications where they were placed on March 28, 2013.DBRS has today downgraded the Issuer Rating and Unsecured Debentures & Notes rating of TransCanada PipeLines Limited (TCPL) to A (low) from “A”, the Junior Subordinated Notes rating of TCPL to BBB from BBB (high) and the Medium-Term Notes & Unsecured Debentures rating of NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL), a wholly owned subsidiary of TCPL, to A (low) from “A”, all with Stable trends. The NGTL rating action reflects DBRS’s view that continued financial and liquidity support from TCPL is key to NGTL’s long-term debt rating. DBRS has also confirmed the preferred share ratings of TCPL and of TransCanada Corporation (TCC, TCPL’s parent company) at Pfd-2 (low) with Stable trends, reflecting DBRS’s belief that the existing ratings are already conservative relative to TCPL’s Issuer Rating and that DBRS views it as unlikely that any debt instruments will be issued at TCC. These actions remove all of the above-noted ratings from Under Review with Negative Implications where they were placed on March 28, 2013.

Finally, TCC’s financial profile remains reasonable, as capex has been lower than previously anticipated due to the Keystone XL delay, partly offsetting weaker earnings and cash flow in 2012. DBRS believes that the recent weakness in credit metrics, compared with prior periods, was partly due to factors that are not likely to reoccur on an ongoing basis, including the Sundance A power purchase agreement (PPA) force majeure, the increased planned outage days at Bruce Power’s Unit A3 and A4 and the lower-than-expected capacity payments at the Ravenswood natural gas and oil-fired generating facility. DBRS notes that Bruce Power’s Unit 1 and Unit 2 were both placed into commercial service during Q4 2012 following a significant refurbishment program. The Company will likely experience a significant free cash flow deficit once capex on Keystone XL gets underway, if approved, likely resulting in a moderately negative impact on credit metrics prior to improvement in subsequent years as some projects are placed into service and begin to generate cash flow.

It’s not just Standard & Poor’s (see report) that’s pressuring Spectra:

Spectra Energy Corp., which distributes natural gas in Ontario and operates in British Columbia as Westcoast Energy Inc., is facing pressure to spin off its Canadian assets from an activist investor.

In a June 17 letter to Spectra chief executive Greg Ebel, Thomas E. Sandell, chief executive of New York-based Sandell Asset Management, said Spectra should review strategic alternatives for Westcoast, including a potential initial public offering. Spectra should also consider transforming itself into a holding company akin to Kinder Morgan Inc., Williams Companies, Inc. and Oneok, Inc., Sandell said.

Another down day for the Canadian preferred share market – but with a difference! PerpetualPremiums were off 1bp, FixedResets lost 20bp and DeemedRetractibles were down 10bp. FixedResets are prominent in the Performance in the Performance Highlights table, which is comprised entirely of losers. Volume was high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0910 % 2,569.3
FixedFloater 4.22 % 3.55 % 43,558 18.19 1 -4.7821 % 3,891.3
Floater 2.73 % 2.90 % 80,504 19.98 4 -0.0910 % 2,774.1
OpRet 4.84 % 2.41 % 63,928 0.08 5 0.0312 % 2,618.0
SplitShare 4.64 % 4.13 % 104,759 4.01 6 0.1186 % 2,981.3
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0312 % 2,393.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.31 % 4.87 % 121,144 6.27 33 -0.0115 % 2,324.0
Perpetual-Discount 5.33 % 5.35 % 235,607 14.92 5 -0.3891 % 2,451.9
FixedReset 4.95 % 3.15 % 238,833 3.29 81 -0.2034 % 2,492.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 4.52 % 159,329 4.76 44 -0.0951 % 2,405.9
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PR.G FixedFloater -4.78 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 22.82
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.55 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset -1.50 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 23.38
Evaluated at bid price : 24.89
Bid-YTW : 3.32 %
VNR.PR.A FixedReset -1.48 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %
MFC.PR.G FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.69
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset -1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 23.09
Evaluated at bid price : 24.56
Bid-YTW : 3.53 %
BNS.PR.K Deemed-Retractible -1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
CU.PR.G Perpetual-Premium -1.04 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 23.45
Evaluated at bid price : 23.76
Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PR.I FixedReset 61,350 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.24
Bid-YTW : 2.51 %
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 58,216 RBC crossed 50,200 at 26.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
TD.PR.K FixedReset 56,350 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.28
Bid-YTW : 2.37 %
GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible 54,755 RBC crossed 50,000 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-03-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.06
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
RY.PR.H Deemed-Retractible 54,400 Called for redemption.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-24
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 48,845 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 22.72
Evaluated at bid price : 23.06
Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
There were 46 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.69 – 25.99
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1837

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.69
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 22.50 – 22.90
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.3038

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 22.82
Evaluated at bid price : 22.50
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.39 – 23.60
Spot Rate : 0.2100
Average : 0.1232

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.39
Bid-YTW : 5.43 %

ENB.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 25.19 – 25.48
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2035

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.19
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.90 – 23.29
Spot Rate : 0.3900
Average : 0.3165

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-06-18
Maturity Price : 22.69
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.27 %

BNS.PR.K Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.22 – 25.52
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2340

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-04-28
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.22
Bid-YTW : 4.53 %

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