I continue to be fascinated by the impending drying up of US Social Security and there was a decent review on CNN today:
“Today, we celebrate that 90th anniversary of one of the most significant pieces of legislation ever signed into law, the Social Security Act of 1935. And we’re going to make it stronger, bigger and better. … During the campaign, I made a (pledge) to our seniors that I would always protect Social Security, and under this administration, we’re keeping that promise and strengthening Social Security for generations to come,” Trump said.
But in citing what he said were his administration’s successes, Trump made some false and exaggerated or unverifiable claims. Among them:
…
Claim: Social Security’s finances are betterIn praising the accomplishments of Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano, who was standing next to the president for the proclamation signing, Trump said that while the media has reported that the program was going to “go bust” in less than a decade, “Not anymore it’s not.”
But in fact, the program still faces the prospect of not being able to pay 100% of promised benefits by 2034 in the retirement and disability programs if lawmakers don’t act to address the pending shortfall, according to the latest annual report from Social Security’s trustees. By that point, unless changes to the system are made, payroll tax revenue and other income sources will only be able to cover 81% of scheduled benefits.
And with the estimated reduction in tax revenue from Trump’s One Big Beautful Bill Act, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the insolvency date will now be a year or two earlier.
There are several longstanding reasons for the funding shortfall, including demographics and other spending and tax legislation passed under Republican and Democratic administrations. But, to close that gap, lawmakers (as they’ve known for years) will need to come up with a package of fixes that may include raising more in Social Security taxes, raising the retirement age, changing the formula to reduce the amount of initial benefits a person receives at retirement, and changing how benefits are annually adjusted for cost of living, according to CRFB.
I fail to understand why the Democrats aren’t banging the drum on this at every opportunity.
And the PPI for July came out:
The latest Producer Price Index, which measures the average change in prices paid to producers, jumped 0.9% from June, lifting the annual rate to 3.3%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. PPI serves as a potential bellwether for the prices consumers may see in the months ahead.
…
Excluding food and energy, core PPI also shot higher by 0.9%, sending the annual rate to 3.7%, the highest level since March.
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 6.88 % | 7.34 % | 37,298 | 13.08 | 1 | -0.2484 % | 2,399.9 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0509 % | 4,591.5 |
| Floater | 6.62 % | 6.91 % | 36,820 | 12.61 | 3 | -0.0509 % | 2,646.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3696 % | 3,674.2 |
| SplitShare | 4.76 % | 4.74 % | 51,555 | 2.37 | 7 | -0.3696 % | 4,387.8 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3696 % | 3,423.5 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 5.82 % | 4.31 % | 77,807 | 0.08 | 2 | 0.0995 % | 3,064.2 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 5.63 % | 5.74 % | 44,249 | 14.26 | 30 | -0.4848 % | 3,325.2 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.63 % | 6.22 % | 116,540 | 13.26 | 37 | -0.1787 % | 3,017.1 |
| Insurance Straight | 5.51 % | 5.59 % | 56,228 | 14.40 | 18 | 0.5018 % | 3,280.4 |
| FloatingReset | 5.28 % | 5.35 % | 36,261 | 14.85 | 1 | -0.4825 % | 3,732.6 |
| FixedReset Prem | 5.89 % | 5.07 % | 116,047 | 2.49 | 17 | -0.0228 % | 2,627.8 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.1787 % | 3,084.1 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 5.22 % | 5.54 % | 68,921 | 14.23 | 15 | 1.1338 % | 3,072.6 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | -9.58 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 6.15 % |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | -7.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.05 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 6.83 % |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | -6.32 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.96 % |
| BN.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | -5.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 19.25 Evaluated at bid price : 19.25 Bid-YTW : 6.71 % |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | -4.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.92 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 6.28 % |
| ENB.PR.N | FixedReset Disc | -3.94 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.49 Evaluated at bid price : 23.15 Bid-YTW : 6.41 % |
| SLF.PR.H | FixedReset Ins Non | -2.76 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.15 Evaluated at bid price : 21.15 Bid-YTW : 5.90 % |
| CIU.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | -2.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 19.60 Evaluated at bid price : 19.60 Bid-YTW : 5.89 % |
| SLF.PR.D | Insurance Straight | -2.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.15 Evaluated at bid price : 21.15 Bid-YTW : 5.34 % |
| PWF.PR.L | Perpetual-Discount | -2.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.73 Evaluated at bid price : 21.98 Bid-YTW : 5.84 % |
| BN.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | -1.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.90 Evaluated at bid price : 23.65 Bid-YTW : 6.32 % |
| GWO.PR.R | Insurance Straight | -1.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.32 Evaluated at bid price : 21.32 Bid-YTW : 5.72 % |
| PVS.PR.H | SplitShare | -1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2027-02-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.00 Bid-YTW : 5.33 % |
| BN.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.46 Evaluated at bid price : 23.15 Bid-YTW : 6.22 % |
| CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.80 Evaluated at bid price : 20.80 Bid-YTW : 5.43 % |
| ENB.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | 1.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.24 Evaluated at bid price : 21.24 Bid-YTW : 6.57 % |
| GWO.PR.Y | Insurance Straight | 1.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.75 Evaluated at bid price : 20.75 Bid-YTW : 5.50 % |
| MFC.PR.J | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 23.58 Evaluated at bid price : 25.37 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | 1.99 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.77 Evaluated at bid price : 23.05 Bid-YTW : 5.66 % |
| PWF.PR.S | Perpetual-Discount | 3.95 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.30 Evaluated at bid price : 21.57 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
| GWO.PR.H | Insurance Straight | 6.97 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.50 Evaluated at bid price : 21.50 Bid-YTW : 5.73 % |
| MFC.PR.F | FixedReset Ins Non | 10.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 18.20 Evaluated at bid price : 18.20 Bid-YTW : 5.87 % |
| MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 10.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 23.54 Evaluated at bid price : 25.41 Bid-YTW : 5.46 % |
| ENB.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | 22.75 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 20.50 Evaluated at bid price : 20.50 Bid-YTW : 6.62 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| ENB.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | 101,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 21.42 Evaluated at bid price : 21.70 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| TD.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 51,600 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 23.91 Evaluated at bid price : 24.79 Bid-YTW : 5.81 % |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | 49,600 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2025-11-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.87 Bid-YTW : 4.60 % |
| PWF.PR.A | Floater | 45,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 13.76 Evaluated at bid price : 13.76 Bid-YTW : 6.34 % |
| GWO.PR.L | Insurance Straight | 29,500 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 24.88 Evaluated at bid price : 25.10 Bid-YTW : 5.70 % |
| ENB.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 25,459 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2055-08-14 Maturity Price : 22.20 Evaluated at bid price : 22.74 Bid-YTW : 6.33 % |
| There were 5 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| See TMX DataLinx: ‘Last’ != ‘Close’ and the posts linked therein for an idea of why these quotes are so horrible. | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| BN.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 20.05 – 21.75 Spot Rate : 1.7000 Average : 0.9843 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.00 – 22.20 Spot Rate : 2.2000 Average : 1.5796 YTW SCENARIO |
| CU.PR.J | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 20.00 – 21.60 Spot Rate : 1.6000 Average : 1.0490 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | Quote: 22.00 – 23.36 Spot Rate : 1.3600 Average : 0.8173 YTW SCENARIO |
| GWO.PR.Q | Insurance Straight | Quote: 23.05 – 24.47 Spot Rate : 1.4200 Average : 0.8808 YTW SCENARIO |
| BIP.PR.F | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 24.00 – 25.25 Spot Rate : 1.2500 Average : 0.7690 YTW SCENARIO |