August 1, 2014

At present, it appears that confidence in the markets is increased by regulation (at least according to the regulators):

Singapore will introduce a minimum price for mainboard shares and reduce the lot size for transactions after a slump in the stocks of three commodity companies erased $6.9 billion in market value over three days in October.

The city-state will impose a minimum trading price of S$0.20 to address risks of low-priced securities being more susceptible to excessive speculation and potential market manipulation, according to a joint statement by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX) yesterday. Other new measures include collection of a 5 percent collateral and reporting of short positions.

The day will come when confidence in the markets is decreased by regulation.

Today’s jobs number was good, but not great:

Today’s U.S. jobs report supports Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s view that there’s still plenty of slack left in the labor market, bolstering the case for continued stimulus, economists said.

While the Labor Department report showed employers added more than 200,000 jobs for the sixth straight month in July, there were also signs of continued weakness. A broad measure of unemployment that includes people working part-time because they can’t find full-time jobs increased last month, while wages stagnated, the report showed.

The headline unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent as more people sought jobs. The share of Americans employed or looking for work, known as the participation rate, increased to 62.9 percent in July from 62.8 percent in June, which matched the lowest level since 1978.

Junk ETFs got hammered this week:

It’s been an ugly week for U.S. high-yield bonds, the worst in more than a year.

As investors fled, they turned to the easiest exits and pulled more than $1 billion from exchange-traded funds, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With Wall Street banks generally devoting less capital to trading, there wasn’t much of a buffer on the other side to prop up values.

The result: Yields on the notes posted their biggest weekly increase since May 2012, surging to 5.7 percent from 5.3 percent on July 25, according to Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield index data. The notes tumbled 1.3 percent in July, the first month of losses since last August.

Interesting to see continued muttering about dealer inventories. Eventually, something’s gotta give.

Water woes in California are getting severe:

Rod Cardella, a Mendota, California, grower of wine grapes, onions and almonds, had to wait a year to have a fourth water well dug on his property as the record drought gripping the most populous U.S. state increased demand for groundwater.

Cardella, 66, who founded Cardella Ranch with his father in 1970 and produces grapes for E&J Gallo Winery, the largest exporter of California wines, paid $500,000 to add the well in June after the federal government said it wouldn’t supply his area with its usual water allocation. The drought forced Cardella to leave half his ranch, including onion and cotton fields, unplanted this year.

With 82 percent of California now experiencing extreme drought after three years of record low rainfall, reservoirs are 45 percent below normal and declining. Governor Jerry Brown has called for a statewide voluntary reduction of water use by 20 percent, and residents now face fines of as much as $500 a day for wasting water.

Farmers have left fallow an estimated half-million acres. The dry spell is likely to boost the prices of food nationwide, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department, as farm and shipping interests stand to lose billions in revenue. California produces half of the fruits, vegetables and nuts consumed in the U.S. The price that some farmers pay for water has risen as much as 10 times what it cost before the drought.

Maybe desalinization plants could run off solar energy? That sounds like a good use for intermittent power.

But we won’t answer that question in Canada:

According to the most recent data from the OECD (from 2011), Canada falls well behind most other wealthy nations on total spending on research and development. At 1.74 per cent of GDP, we lag behind countries including the U.S. (2.77 per cent), Sweden (3.37 per cent) and Finland (3.78 per cent). Israel, a powerhouse in innovation and creative design, tops the list at 4.38 per cent.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 15bp, FixedResets off 4bp and DeemedRetractibles down 9bp. Volatility was minor. Volume was virtually non-existent, as everybody took a holiday except for the minimum-wage scum.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,607.5
FixedFloater 4.16 % 3.39 % 26,907 18.64 1 0.2193 % 4,173.0
Floater 2.94 % 3.06 % 45,165 19.55 4 0.0000 % 2,696.3
OpRet 4.03 % 0.23 % 78,630 0.08 1 -0.0785 % 2,714.7
SplitShare 4.25 % 3.89 % 55,639 3.99 6 -0.1608 % 3,117.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0785 % 2,482.3
Perpetual-Premium 5.49 % -3.99 % 91,665 0.09 19 0.0993 % 2,434.6
Perpetual-Discount 5.22 % 5.17 % 117,015 15.22 17 0.1459 % 2,590.1
FixedReset 4.29 % 3.56 % 198,723 8.57 75 -0.0408 % 2,558.3
Deemed-Retractible 4.99 % -0.38 % 115,073 0.15 42 -0.0948 % 2,552.9
FloatingReset 2.68 % 2.22 % 81,224 3.86 6 -0.1448 % 2,511.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -3.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
IGM.PR.B Perpetual-Premium 1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.30
Bid-YTW : 2.86 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
TD.PF.B FixedReset 286,749 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-08-01
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.09
Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 201,265 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-08-01
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 67,748 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-08-01
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.95
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
PWF.PR.T FixedReset 51,000 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 26.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.86
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %
RY.PR.X FixedReset 36,200 Called for redemption, August 24.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-09-23
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.99
Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 32,452 Scotia crossed 24,200 at 22.82.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
There were 10 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.00 – 26.86
Spot Rate : 0.8600
Average : 0.5365

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.00
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.51 – 23.20
Spot Rate : 0.6900
Average : 0.5472

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.51
Bid-YTW : 4.42 %

SLF.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 25.45 – 25.83
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2632

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.45
Bid-YTW : 3.21 %

FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.51 – 24.85
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2268

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-08-01
Maturity Price : 24.03
Evaluated at bid price : 24.51
Bid-YTW : 5.05 %

PVS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 25.95 – 26.20
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1608

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2017-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.95
Bid-YTW : 3.89 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 22.85 – 23.11
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1784

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-08-01
Maturity Price : 22.89
Evaluated at bid price : 22.85
Bid-YTW : 3.39 %

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