An article in the Globe about drone deliveries led to two source papers. The first, The sky may not be the limit – A case study in Berlin, attempts to estimate the volume of deliveries attainable:
Using the city of Berlin as an example, we consider practical questions such as how will drones be controlled, how many parcels could be delivered and, critically, what are the challenges to implementation. For example, we calculate that the usable air space above Berlin could accommodate 1,200 cargo drones at any one time, enabling the possible delivery of up to four million parcels every year.
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Regarding minimum safety distances, we assume a scale factor of 10% compared to commercial air traffic rules. This means minimum horizontal distances for cargo drones would be 550 m and minimum vertical distances 30 m.
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So, if drone operations are allowed on 280 days a year (excludes Sundays and 30 other non-operating days due to adverse weather conditions and public holidays), up to 4 million parcels can possibly be delivered by cargo drones in Berlin every year.And what percentage of a Berlin’s parcel delivery needs will drones be able to cover? Around 135 million parcels were delivered in Berlin in 2018, with about 80% (110 million) weighing less than 2 kg (the assumed maximum load of a parcel drone). Thus, at maximum capacity and based on 2019 figures, drones could handle 3.6% of parcel deliveries under 2 kg.
Over half a click of horizontal safety space? I will readily admit to not being an expert on Drone Air Traffic Control, but that seems excessive. The figure is not justified in the paper, beyond the seemingly arbitrary scaling to 10% of commercial air traffic rules.
The other paper is titled Estimation of traffic density from drone-based delivery in very low level urban airspace:
When considering that the probability for traffic conflicts grows quadratically with traffic density (Hoekstra, 2001), managing airspace complexity will be one of the main challenges of unmanned traffic management concepts such as U-Space.
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Each of the U-Space level consists of a set services aimed at supporting and adopting the growth of drone operations for European Union (EU) member states. However, challenges associated with integrating high densities of drone traffic to the urban airspace in a safe and efficient manner, is yet to be tackled by the regulatory and technological apparatus of U-Space.The question remains what would be the expected volume of drone traffic for a typical urban airspace such as Paris. The study conducted by (Airbus UTM, 2018) estimated an average of 16,667 delivery drones per hour, or a traffic density of 8333 delivery drones, for Paris by 2035. The latter figure is nearly eight-fold lower than the potential scenario of traffic density delivery drones of 63,596 estimated in this study for both express parcel and food deliveries.
I am sorely tempted to imagine a regulatory regime in which the bulk of a drone’s flight is restricted to arterial roads; this will reduce noise complaints from old ladies. When the drone gets sufficiently close to its destination, then it can veer off – still using existing streets – and make its deliveries. Surely such a regime would enable the required horizontal clearance to be reduced to a mere fraction of 550m.
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
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Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.3349 % | 1,757.7 |
FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 1.3349 % | 3,225.3 |
Floater | 4.84 % | 4.90 % | 41,737 | 15.62 | 3 | 1.3349 % | 1,858.7 |
OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2912 % | 3,557.2 |
SplitShare | 4.77 % | 4.46 % | 38,982 | 3.49 | 8 | 0.2912 % | 4,248.0 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2912 % | 3,314.5 |
Perpetual-Premium | 5.35 % | 3.61 % | 79,836 | 0.40 | 14 | -0.0558 % | 3,181.3 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.19 % | 5.15 % | 77,942 | 15.13 | 19 | -0.3258 % | 3,577.2 |
FixedReset Disc | 5.33 % | 4.13 % | 121,566 | 16.52 | 64 | 0.3914 % | 2,175.1 |
Insurance Straight | 5.07 % | 4.87 % | 98,713 | 15.16 | 22 | 0.0776 % | 3,501.0 |
FloatingReset | 1.98 % | 2.44 % | 50,996 | 1.19 | 3 | 0.1173 % | 1,808.2 |
FixedReset Prem | 5.19 % | 2.83 % | 226,860 | 0.73 | 15 | 0.1313 % | 2,667.9 |
FixedReset Bank Non | 1.94 % | 2.11 % | 172,172 | 1.19 | 2 | 0.1207 % | 2,865.4 |
FixedReset Ins Non | 5.36 % | 4.23 % | 70,366 | 16.42 | 22 | 0.3291 % | 2,255.5 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | -7.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 21.65 Evaluated at bid price : 22.05 Bid-YTW : 5.10 % |
MFC.PR.R | FixedReset Ins Non | -2.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 24.12 Evaluated at bid price : 24.50 Bid-YTW : 4.46 % |
BAM.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | -2.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 22.52 Evaluated at bid price : 22.80 Bid-YTW : 5.44 % |
BAM.PR.R | FixedReset Disc | -1.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 13.20 Evaluated at bid price : 13.20 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | -1.39 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 18.38 Evaluated at bid price : 18.38 Bid-YTW : 3.98 % |
MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | -1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 23.26 Evaluated at bid price : 23.56 Bid-YTW : 4.83 % |
BAM.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 13.76 Evaluated at bid price : 13.76 Bid-YTW : 5.23 % |
IAF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 19.34 Evaluated at bid price : 19.34 Bid-YTW : 4.39 % |
BAM.PR.X | FixedReset Disc | 1.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 11.49 Evaluated at bid price : 11.49 Bid-YTW : 5.09 % |
BAM.PR.C | Floater | 1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 8.85 Evaluated at bid price : 8.85 Bid-YTW : 4.90 % |
BAM.PR.B | Floater | 1.26 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 8.84 Evaluated at bid price : 8.84 Bid-YTW : 4.91 % |
NA.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | 1.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 4.29 % |
MFC.PR.Q | FixedReset Ins Non | 1.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 19.55 Evaluated at bid price : 19.55 Bid-YTW : 4.21 % |
CM.PR.Q | FixedReset Disc | 1.41 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 19.42 Evaluated at bid price : 19.42 Bid-YTW : 4.18 % |
CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 1.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 24.44 Evaluated at bid price : 24.70 Bid-YTW : 4.96 % |
TRP.PR.D | FixedReset Disc | 1.45 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 14.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.00 Bid-YTW : 5.51 % |
TD.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 20.70 Evaluated at bid price : 20.70 Bid-YTW : 4.03 % |
TRP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | 1.48 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 13.75 Evaluated at bid price : 13.75 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
BAM.PR.K | Floater | 1.49 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 8.88 Evaluated at bid price : 8.88 Bid-YTW : 4.89 % |
PWF.PR.P | FixedReset Disc | 1.85 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 11.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.00 Bid-YTW : 4.72 % |
BAM.PF.G | FixedReset Disc | 1.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 15.85 Evaluated at bid price : 15.85 Bid-YTW : 5.26 % |
TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 2.25 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 12.27 Evaluated at bid price : 12.27 Bid-YTW : 5.51 % |
TRP.PR.C | FixedReset Disc | 2.82 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 9.47 Evaluated at bid price : 9.47 Bid-YTW : 5.33 % |
SLF.PR.G | FixedReset Ins Non | 3.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 11.45 Evaluated at bid price : 11.45 Bid-YTW : 4.11 % |
BAM.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | 3.34 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 15.15 Evaluated at bid price : 15.15 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
RY.PR.Z | FixedReset Disc | 3.60 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 18.70 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 3.82 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
TD.PF.H | FixedReset Prem | 104,700 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.43 Bid-YTW : 3.25 % |
TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | 93,400 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 12.27 Evaluated at bid price : 12.27 Bid-YTW : 5.51 % |
MFC.PR.B | Insurance Straight | 60,288 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 23.96 Evaluated at bid price : 24.21 Bid-YTW : 4.86 % |
IFC.PR.I | Perpetual-Premium | 49,210 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2029-03-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.71 Bid-YTW : 5.12 % |
TRP.PR.E | FixedReset Disc | 47,242 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 13.75 Evaluated at bid price : 13.75 Bid-YTW : 5.56 % |
MFC.PR.M | FixedReset Ins Non | 45,050 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2050-11-16 Maturity Price : 18.42 Evaluated at bid price : 18.42 Bid-YTW : 4.18 % |
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.05 – 23.82 Spot Rate : 1.7700 Average : 0.9659 YTW SCENARIO |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.05 – 17.98 Spot Rate : 0.9300 Average : 0.5882 YTW SCENARIO |
MFC.PR.R | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 24.50 – 25.24 Spot Rate : 0.7400 Average : 0.5023 YTW SCENARIO |
BAM.PF.E | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 15.15 – 15.95 Spot Rate : 0.8000 Average : 0.6075 YTW SCENARIO |
BAM.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 22.80 – 23.50 Spot Rate : 0.7000 Average : 0.5392 YTW SCENARIO |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 18.38 – 18.82 Spot Rate : 0.4400 Average : 0.3000 YTW SCENARIO |
BCE.PR.R To Reset To 3.018%
November 16th, 2020BCE Inc. has announced:
This follows an earlier announcement (2020-10-15):
Series Q, if issued, will be a Ratchet Rate Preferred, which in current conditions may be expected to pay dividends at 100% of Canada Prime paid on par … although if the price should exceed $25, this percentage will be reduced, with a minimum of 50% of Canada Prime.
As explained in the article on such pairs (which are interconvertible on a set schedule) the expected prices of each element of the pair are related by the level of their expected dividends. Alternatively, the break-even dividend rate for the Ratchet Rate element of the pair can be determined given knowledge of the other three variables (price #1, price #2 and dividend #1). These break even dividend rates are plotted for each FixedFloater / RatchetRate pair in the following graph:
Click for Big
The average breakeven prime for the BCE issues (seven pairs) currently trading is 3.07% (the outlying point is BAM.PR.G / BAM.PR.E, both of which trade with miniscule volumes). If we assume that the new pair, if created, will trade with the same relative valuation, the current bid of 13.41 for BCE.PR.R will imply a bid of 13.46 for BCE.PF.Q.
Therefore, I make no recommendation regarding whether or not to convert; holders should determine their preference according to their own financial position and their own views regarding the probable level of Canada Prime over the next five years.
Those who wish to convert must act quickly! The deadline is 5pm on November 17 and brokers’ internal deadlines could well occur before then – although they will generally take instructions on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion.
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