December 6, 2013

Nice US job numbers!

The jobless rate dropped to a five-year low of 7 percent in November as American employers added more workers than forecast, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve may start scaling back stimulus as soon as this month.

The 203,000 increase in payrolls followed a revised 200,000 advance in October, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. Joblessness fell from 7.3 percent.

The Labor Department’s household survey showed more people were entering the labor force. The so-called participation rate rose to 63 percent in November, the first gain since June. A month earlier it fell to 62.8 percent, the lowest level since March 1978.

Factories took on the most workers since March 2012, employment in construction accelerated and payrolls in transportation and warehousing picked up, today’s figures showed.

Job gains have combined with cheaper gasoline, stock-market gains, higher home values and more available credit to fuel demand for big-ticket goods such as automobiles.

Factories added 27,000 jobs, helped by a pickup at automakers, after a 16,000 gain in October. Construction firms took on 17,000 workers.

Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2 percent to $24.15 in November from the prior month, and climbed 2 percent over the past 12 months. The average work week for all workers climbed six minutes to 34.5 hours last month.

The energy sector has also been a bright spot for hiring, as America experiences an oil and natural gas boom.

BSD.PR.A was confirmed at Pfd-4(low) by DBRS:

As of December 5, 2013, the Portfolio consisted of 77% Canadian common stock, 20% REITs and 2% Canadian preferred stock. Since the rating was last confirmed in December 2012, performance has been relatively flat. Downside protection available to holders of the Preferred Securities fell to 13% in June 2013 but has since recovered, rising to approximately 20% at the end of November 2013 (similar to November 2012 levels). The yield on the Portfolio has decreased slightly, causing the distribution coverage ratio to drop to 0.75 times (as of November 29, 2013). The rating on the Preferred Securities continues to be constrained by the large percentage of underlying securities in the Portfolio that are not rated by any rating agency and the grind on the Portfolio due to distributions exceeding income.

I made a minor update to the November 29 Tracking Error, regarding ZPR’s valuation methodology and technical issues.

It was a mixed, mostly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 18bp, FixedResets gaining 2bp and DeemedRetractibles down 21bp. There was a good amount of volatility, mostly negative, led downwards by SplitShares, oddly enough. Volume was high.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.9665 % 2,510.2
FixedFloater 4.23 % 3.52 % 36,798 18.29 1 0.9897 % 3,966.6
Floater 2.96 % 2.98 % 63,969 19.70 3 0.9665 % 2,710.3
OpRet 4.62 % -2.92 % 78,257 0.08 3 0.0257 % 2,660.6
SplitShare 4.92 % 4.53 % 70,330 4.51 5 -0.9034 % 2,971.2
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0257 % 2,432.9
Perpetual-Premium 5.61 % 5.15 % 133,328 0.39 13 -0.0976 % 2,303.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.63 % 5.62 % 163,433 14.40 25 -0.1783 % 2,335.2
FixedReset 4.98 % 3.44 % 233,368 3.31 82 0.0182 % 2,479.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.11 % 4.08 % 194,001 1.41 42 -0.2135 % 2,412.5
FloatingReset 2.64 % 2.35 % 332,267 4.43 5 -0.0158 % 2,464.4
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare -2.65 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
CGI.PR.D SplitShare -2.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.82
Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible -1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.77
Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 19.33
Evaluated at bid price : 19.33
Bid-YTW : 6.41 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount -1.23 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 19.23
Evaluated at bid price : 19.23
Bid-YTW : 6.31 %
SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible -1.12 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 19.55
Evaluated at bid price : 19.55
Bid-YTW : 6.40 %
CU.PR.D Perpetual-Discount 1.16 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 22.36
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.20 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 17.76
Evaluated at bid price : 17.76
Bid-YTW : 2.98 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IAG.PR.C FixedReset 165,439 Desjardins crossed blocks of 53,000 and 12,000, both at 24.97. TD crossed 100,000 at 24.98.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 139,554 Desjardins crossed 65,000 at 20.40; Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 20.30
Evaluated at bid price : 20.30
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
PWF.PR.M FixedReset 110,245 Nesbitt sold 22,000 to Scotia at 25.31 and crossed 70,000 at the same price. RBC crossed 16,900 at 25.31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 1.75 %
ENB.PR.H FixedReset 108,734 Nesbitt crossed 100,000 at 23.40.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 22.48
Evaluated at bid price : 23.35
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
GWO.PR.J FixedReset 101,666 Called for redemption
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-01-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible 84,000 Scotia crossed 28,000 at 22.43. Nesbitt crossed two blocks of 25,000 each, both at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.09
Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
There were 51 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BNA.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 23.51 – 23.85
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2225

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2019-01-10
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 5.75 %

SLF.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.06 – 22.40
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2298

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 6.28 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 22.16 – 22.46
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2213

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 21.83
Evaluated at bid price : 22.16
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %

FTS.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 24.20 – 24.46
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1859

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 22.85
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 3.91 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 24.21 – 24.45
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1710

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-12-06
Maturity Price : 23.71
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %

MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 21.12 – 21.44
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2603

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.12
Bid-YTW : 6.49 %

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