Category: MAPF

MAPF

MAPF : Portfolio Characteristics as of 2007-5-31

There have been a fair number of changes in portfolio composition since the April 30 analysis. With the huge volatility in the market, trading opportunities have been numerous!

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2007-5-31
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet 0% N/A N/A
FixFloat 0% N/A N/A
Floater 0% N/A N/A
OpRet 0% N/A N/A
SplitShare 29.9% 4.60% 6.43
Interest Rearing 0% N/A N/A
PerpetualPremium 60.8% 4.98% 4.59
PerpetualDiscount 3.0% 4.92% 15.63
Scraps 1.0% 4.09% 5.83
Cash 5.4% 0.00% 0.00
Total 100% 4.59% 5.23

Sharp-eyed readers will observe that the “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio (i.e., cash is included in the portfolio calculations and is deemed to have a duration and yield of 0.00.), and may make their own adjustments to reflect interest. The average YTW on the securities-only portion of the portfolio, for instance, is 4.85%. MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances to facilitate trading.

These sharp-eyed readers will also note, with a certain amount of glee, that the percentages do not add up to exactly 100% in the above or the following tables. This is due to rounding. You know something? Sharp-eyed readers really bug me.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2007-5.31
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 18.5%
Pfd-1(low) 46.3%
Pfd-2 27.7%
Pfd-2(low) 2.2%
Cash 5.4%

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2007-5-31
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 1%
$50,000 – $100,000 28.7%
$100,000 – $200,000 26.7%
$200,000 – $300,000 14.7%
>$300,000 23.6%
Cash 5.4%

Update: I forgot the ad! MAPF is, of course, Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund, a “unit trust” managed by Hymas Investment Management Inc. Further information and links to performance, audited financials and subscription information are available on the fund’s web page. A “unit trust” is like a regular mutual fund, but is sold by offering memorandum rather than prospectus. This is cheaper, but means subscription is restricted to “accredited investors” (as defined by the Ontario Securities Commission) and those who subscribe for $150,000+. Fund past performances are not a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other fund.

MAPF

MAPF Portfolio Characteristics, 2007-4-30

For reasons that will become clear with the release of the June edition of Canadian Moneysaver, I thought I would disclose the broad characteristics of the MAPF Portfolio as of last month end:

MAPF Sectoral Analysis 2007-4-30
HIMI Indices Sector Weighting YTW ModDur
Ratchet  0% N/A  N/A
FixFloat  0% N/A N/A 
Floater  0% N/A  N/A 
OpRet  0% N/A  N/A 
SplitShare  78% 4.38%  6.08 
Interest Rearing  0% N/A  N/A 
PerpetualPremium  28% 4.94%  4.43 
PerpetualDiscount  3% 4.59%  16.21
Scraps  1% 3.86%  5.86 
Cash  -11% N/A N/A
Total  100% 4.52% 5.93 

Sharp-eyed readers will observe that the “total” reflects the un-leveraged total portfolio, and may make their own adjustments to reflect interest costs incurred on the cash debit. MAPF will often have relatively large cash balances to facilitate trading.

They will also note, with a certain amount of glee, that the percentages do not add up to exactly 100% in this or the following tables. This is due to rounding. You know something? Sharp-eyed readers really bug me.

Credit distribution is:

MAPF Credit Analysis 2007-4-30
DBRS Rating Weighting
Pfd-1 16%
Pfd-1(low) 2%
Pfd-2 78%
Pfd-2(low) 14%
Cash -11%

Liquidity Distribution is:

MAPF Liquidity Analysis 2007-4-30
Average Daily Trading Weighting
<$50,000 1%
$50,000 – $100,000 0%
$100,000 – $200,000 50%
$200,000 – $300,000 19%
>$300,000 40%
Cash -11%

Just in case anybody’s interested! Incidentally … cash, calculated on a trade-date basis on 2007-5-11, is basically as close to zero as it ever will be. But who knows? I might get half a trade done on Monday!

MAPF

Malachite Fund : Questions from a Potential Client

A number of questions regarding the fund were asked on Financial Webring Forum. While that is certainly a great venue for asking questions, I don’t feel comfortable answering them there – so I’ll answer here.

Is Malachite MAPF good alternative (to DPS.UN) for qualified accredited investors? Well, I certainly like to think so! DPS.UN is a closed-end passive fund trading on the TSX with a MER of about 56bp. As far as MAPF is concerned, it is my belief that the preferred share market is sufficiently inefficient that significant gains can be made by trading between issues from time to time. The historical results that the fund has been able to achieve support this view. There can be no guarantee that outperformance will continue, but I think that index +2% (after expenses, before fees) is achievable with a portfolio size much greater than I currently have. With the fee schedule currently in place, net return to unitholders should handsomely exceed the 56-bp-less-than-Index returns expected from a diversified passive fund with a 56bp MER.

What is its MER besides 1% annual fee? Fund expenses have been capped at 50bp, with excess expenses being absorbed by the manager. The fund’s total expenses are sufficiently low that the fund will not have to grow very much before I can stop paying out this money and the rate goes down. Fund expenses are almost entirely due to Audit Fees. Further details are available from the Annual Reports of the fund, which are published on my website.

If its duration is same as 10 year bond, is it safe investment for redemption after 10 years? That depends largely on what you mean by “safe”! It is my opinion that, given the high credit quality of the fund’s investments and their nature, the risk profile of the fund is similar to a corporate bond fund such as iShares CDN Corporate Bond Index Fund (XCB) , with a greater expected after-tax return due to the Dividend Tax Credit and trading based on market inefficiency.

Its returns are better than index since inception. Why is its fund size so small after 5 years? There are a number of hurdles that have to be overcome before the fund can grow in size.

  • Investor disbelief that active trading is possible. Liquidity is a problem in the preferred share marketplace, but can be turned into an opportunity. It is difficult for an investor to place an order of, say, 10,000 shares on the TSX and get filled at a known and reasonable price in a short period of time. Patience is required. Many investors are completely unaware of the existence of the Institutional “Upstairs” Market – every brokerage has a pref trader. Institutions can call and ask him to execute a trade – it then becomes his job to find a counterparty and charge both sides a nickel per share commission (or, sometimes, do the trade out of inventory, like David Berry!). Sometimes you get filled, sometimes you get a partial fill, sometimes you get no fill at all. But the market is there – look at the daily volumes I report as part of the highlights every day! Virtually every cross that I mention happened in this manner.
  • Pre-tax Returns are (generally) lower than on bonds A silly reason, but important. People compare performances based on pre-tax returns.
  • I’m not big enough to be sold through brokers Hymas Investment is not (yet) as big as Investors Group. The brokerage houses will not put MAPF on their permitted list.
  • I might run away with all the money. I hate this reason, but I have to face facts. Anybody who knows me won’t worry about this, but those who don’t will account for this risk and sometimes make it the deciding factor. There’s nothing I can do about it, except offer segregated accounts.
  • I am a lousy salesman People don’t like being told that everything they thought they knew about the preferred share market is wrong. Those who are willing to believe that active management is possible want a somewhat more exciting story than I’m able to tell … they want to hear that my Crystal Ball tells me the direction of interest rates, and my chicken entrails tell me what’s going to happen to the credit ratings of particular companies … not that there are frequent supply-and-demand imbalances in the marketplace and that you can frequently make as much as twenty cents a share by catering to them. I don’t like going out and chit-chatting – what I like best is to work on my analytical systems and keep improving them. I took the view, when I started the firm, that if I was able to deliver three years of outperformance (five at the outside) the fund would sell itself. I was wrong – but I’m learning a lot about how the fund selling business really works.

 

When will passive fund version be available? As soon as I am in a position to offer it. MAPF is small and doesn’t make me any net management fees. That’s OK (if disappointing) – the fund serves as an advertisement for my software, for the consulting side of my business (I offer advice to other firms about preferred shares in particular, fixed-income in general and quantitative systems) and for the possibility that a major fundco will (finally!) put their sales force behind an active preferred share product with my firm as manager. But I don’t need two advertisements, especially if the second one advertises passive management! I’ll start a passive fund as soon as I get committments for investment that will allow me to offer a good product and make a little money on the deal … that would be about $5-million, done for fund expenses + 20bp management fee (which would put the total MER in the 30-35 bp range)

Update & Bump, 2007-05-07 from 2007-2-2: A careful reader commented on this thread and I thought it was an important enough question to be worth a reply in the body of the post. The comment is:

MAPF is a very interesting alternative to DPS.UN or CPD. However there is very high turnover on MAPF, with consequent transaction costs and tax implications. Assuming MAPF outperformance of +2% over index, won’t the 1% to 1.5% fee + transaction costs + c.g. taxes minimize any potential outperformance for segregated fund? Thanks.

OK, there are several parts to this question!

The first has to do with turnover & transaction costs. Yes, MAPF has a very high turnover and proportionately high transaction costs. However, I will note that the performance figures presented are NET of transaction costs – I’m not trying to present returns as if commissions were zero! They’re all right there, embedded in the reported returns.

The current focus on Transaction Costs is, I am convinced, a plot by the banks (who just want to sell plain-vanilla closet-index funds run by plain-vanilla portfolio managers making plain-vanilla salaries … but to sell these funds at a high fee), aided and abetted by the securities commissions staff (very few of whom have ever gotten on the ‘phone and told the dealer “Done” in their lives). Because, in and of itself, Transaction Costs don’t mean squat.

Reporting transaction costs for an investment fund is like reporting “Cost of Pencils” for a Bank. Does the bank spend money on pencils? Yup. Would the bank make more money if it got all its pencils for free? Yup. Does breaking out this figure give you any idea as to whether the bank is wisely using its pencil budget to make (however indirectly) more profit? Um … no.

The philosophy of the fund is the same as my philosophy towards investing: you can make good money selling liquidity. When the price of a particular issue goes – as far as I can tell, to the best of my ability – out of bounds by $0.25, do you really want me to forgo the opportunity to trade on this, because I’ll have to pay $0.10 commission? I don’t think you do, really. The $0.10 is simply a cost of doing business and how good I am at judging the potential for such business will be reflected in my returns net of transaction costs versus the index.

“Tax implications” is a much more reasonable concern, but you must remember that preferred shares are – in terms of investment behaviour – fixed income instruments. They are not equities. Equities can double – octuple – n-tuple, which is why turnover & tax is a much more important factor. It’s a very nice thing to defer punishing amounts of capital gains tax until your estate is wound up. Pref’s ain’t gonna do that. The most optimistic long-term view you can take on a pref – or a bond – is that eventually it will be priced at par, when the company forces you to sell it.

While tax implications are accounted for in HIMIPref™ it’s not a major factor. In simulations, I do see some tax-loss selling (for instance, most parameterizations for simulations will swap the Transcanada issues when they went down to about $35 (from par value $50) in 1999/2000), but not much. The tax implications in the system are mainly: do I sell this today and take a capital gain? Or do I sell it tomorrow and take a dividend? Now that these forms of income are taxed very similarly, even this little finesse isn’t very important any more … I just sell when I think I can make some money!

So that takes care of two things: it is mainly through incurring transaction costs that I am able to make some money in the first place; and long term capital gains on bonds are zero (OK, sometimes a pref gets called at a premium. That’s a minor detail.), so you should be happy – no, thrilled! – to pay lovely capital gains taxes on a consistent basis.

Fees. Yes, fees will reduce your returns relative to no fees but, as with transaction costs, it’s the price of doing business. Note that a passively managed fund (such as DPS and CPD) should not be expected to outperform the index gross of fees and expenses on a long term basis; therefore, your expected long term return is the index less fees and expenses, currently 45-50bp on these products. I’m happy with my past track record of delivering returns that exceed the index net of fees and expenses and spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to continue doing it.

MAPF

MAPF : Results for April 2007

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for March, 2007, month-end. The unit value is $9.4083. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to April 30, 2007
One Month -1.27%
Three Months -0.19%
One Year +6.67%
Two Years (annualized) +6.53%
Three Years (annualized) +7.59%
Four Years (annualized) +11.77%
Five Years (annualized) +9.71%
Six Years (annualized) +10.77%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund.

For more information, see the fund’s main page.

Rather a dispiriting month! A few trades popped up, but it seemed that every trade I made was to catch a falling knife – sometimes trends are like that! The fund’s asset allocation is very heavily tilted towards Split-Share corporations, with additional exposure to very-high-dividend perpetuals, so it’s quite defensive. I will emphasize that the defensiveness of this position is not due to any market call on my part, it’s simply the math filtering through … one way to think of this process is to observe that, in situations such as now, with the ongoing BCE rout causing panic & confusion, issues in the marketplace have dropped in price indiscriminately. Which is to say, they’ve all dropped by the same amount, regardless of safety. Which is to say, the defensive issues have dropped more on a risk-adjusted basis than the more aggressive issues and hence have increased in relative attractiveness.

The above, please remember, is an over-simplification for visualization purposes, not a claim of any specific price movements by any issue or a recommendation of any particular class of preferred share for investment purposes.

Index Construction / Reporting

Split Share Discount

On the thread for April 27, Drew asked:

The YTW of split shares and perpetual premium shares seems to have risen over the last month substantially more than that of perpetual discount shares. My impression is that the bond yield curve has not flattened like this. Am I correct and, if so, do you have a theory?

Well, first off, let’s look at the index data: March 30:

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Op. Retract 4.72% 3.04% 85,479 2.16 17 -0.0828% 1,034.0
Split-Share 5.01% 3.14% 158,951 3.31 14 +0.0234% 1,052.8
Perpetual-Premium 5.02% 3.56% 219,123 5.15 53 -0.0031% 1,059.8
Perpetual-Discount 4.53% 4.54% 762,721 15.37 10 -0.0157% 1,066.8

…and for April 27:

Note that these indices are experimental; the absolute and relative daily values are expected to change in the final version. In this version, index values are based at 1,000.0 on 2006-6-30
Index Mean Current Yield (at bid) Mean YTW Mean Average Trading Value Mean Mod Dur (YTW) Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Op. Retract 4.73% 3.22% 84,115 2.38 17 -0.0108% 1,033.0
Split-Share 5.03% 4.29% 179,611 4.02 12 +0.1756% 1,046.1
Perpetual-Premium 5.07% 4.50% 222,579 6.25 54 -0.1567% 1,051.4
Perpetual-Discount 4.57% 4.59% 924,984 16.22 12 -0.0112% 1,056.4

From these indications, we see huge apparent changes in the yield of split shares. There are, as always, details of the analysis that must be understood before we pat ourselves on the back, however.

Consider the April 27 Split Share Index. Well, it looks like one thing that’s going to happen soon is that MUH.PR.A and ASC.PR.A will be moved to the “Scraps” index, on grounds of insufficient averageTradingValue, but never mind that.

One thing we notice is that DFN.PR.A & FFN.PR.A have much higher YTWs than FTN.PR.A, thanks to the recently approved term extensions on the former two issues. Be sure to write a thank-you note to your friendly neighborhood capital unit holder for the gift! Another thing we notice when looking at the index table is that the Split-Share index has been hit a lot harder than the Operating-Retractible index. This effect is due, I think, to a lack of understanding in the marketplace in general as to the nature of a split-share corporation. For example, one commenter on Financial Webring Forum stated that he was “not interested in … split shares that mature at NAV”.

Well, the preferred share component of a split share corp does not mature at NAV, absent default. The last two words are very important, because as I showed in the article Are Floating Prefs Money Market Vehicles?, Split Shares have, historically, been more susceptible to credit downgrades than other classes of share. However, readers who have read Using Credit Ratings When Buying Preferreds and Split Shares will know how to watch for the signs of an imminent downgrade. It seems to me that DBRS has been tightening its standards for Split Share credit ratings in the past year or two; as well, while the nature of a split share makes the rating more volatile, it also makes credit analysis a lot easier! So, while you have to watch them, so what? You have to watch everything in this uncertain world.

Some institutional investors, as well, don’t like Split Shares: one reasonably good reason is that not only are issue sizes relatively small, but they are rarely available as a new issue bought en bloc unless you also buy the Capital Units. One relatively bad reason is that many institutional guys don’t understand them either, another is that buying them might give the impression that they are sub-contracting asset management to the Split-Share’s sponsor, or at least have to explain to clients why that is not a fair characterization.

So in the end, Split Shares become not just a playground for retail, but for a relatively small component of the retail preferred share buying populace at that. This makes them much more susceptible to volatility and what I currently believe is contagion from the continuing woes of BCE.

I’ve uploaded a graph of the yieldCurvePremiumRetractible and the yieldCurvePremiumSplitShareCorp. On April 27, these values stood at -0.44% and +0.40%, respectively, changing from -0.42% and +0.34%, respectively, on March 30. So, yeah, Split Share spreads have widened quite noticeably over the past month. I’ve also uploaded a graph of the core yield curves at year-end, March month-end and now, for your inspection. All these curves and spreads, I hasten to note before I forget, are AFTER TAX.

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund currently has a relatively high exposure to Split Shares, so I could be accused of talking up my inventory. I could also be accused of putting my money where my mouth is. Take your pick – you have been warned!

 

MAPF

MAPF Results : March, 2007

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for March, 2007, month-end. The unit value is $9.5292 after a distribution of $0.103149 dividend income. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to March 30, 2007
One Month +0.42%
Three Months +0.11%
One Year +5.48%
Two Years (annualized) +5.48%
Three Years (annualized) +6.41%
Four Years (annualized) +14.00%
Five Years (annualized) +10.26%
Six Years (annualized) +11.21%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund.
For more information, see the fund’s main page.

MAPF

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund : Financials Posted

There’s not much that I can say that isn’t in the headline!

The MAPF Main Page has been updated to incorporate links to the 2006 Financial Statements and to the 2006 Portfolio Transactions.

I eagerly await criticism for my bloated Trading Expense Ratio that everybody seems so concerned about nowadays – even when talking about fixed income – to which I have only one thing to say.

MAPF

Malachite Fund : February Results

Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been valued for February month-end. The unit value is $9.5917. Returns over various periods are:

MAPF Returns to February 28, 2007
One Month +0.67%
Three Months +0.63%
One Year +6.66%
Two Years (annualized) +6.16%
Three Years (annualized) +7.16%
Four Years (annualized) +12.56%
Five Years (annualized) +10.15%

Returns assume reinvestment of dividends, and are shown after expenses but before fees. Past performance is not  a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund or any other fund.

For more information, see the fund’s main page.

MAPF

MAPF Returns : January, 2007

The monthly return for Malachite Aggressive Preferred Fund has been calculated. A poor month, but sometimes the preferred share market behaves in an … unusual … manner.

The unit price as of January 31, 2007, was $9.5275.

Returns may therefore be calculated as:

Periods Ending January 31, 2007 Return (see Note)
Month -0.97%
Quarter +1.70%
Year +5.57%
Two Years (Annualized) +5.66%
Three Years (Annualized) +7.61%
Four Years (Annualized) +12.21%
Five Years (Annualized) +10.25%
MAPF returns are shown after expenses, but before fees.

Note that past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future performance. You can lose money investing in MAPF or any other investment.

More later.