Archive for October, 2013

New Issue: Prime US Banking Sector Split Corp.

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2013

Quadravest has announced:

Prime U.S. Banking Sector Split Corp. (“The Company”) is pleased to announce the filing of a preliminary prospectus dated September 30, 2013 for a proposed new offering. The offering is an investment in common shares of a portfolio consisting primarily of 15 U.S. financial services companies selected from a portfolio universe consisting of 20 companies. The Company will offer two investment choices: Priority Equity Shares at $10 per share and Class A shares at $10 per share.

The Company’s Priority Equity Shares will provide holders with monthly cumulative preferential floating rate cash dividends at an annual rate of U.S. prime plus 1.75% (Min: 5.0% / Max: 7.0%) based on the original issue price.

The Company’s Class A Shares offer regular monthly cash dividends initially targeted to be 6.5% per annum based on the original issue price. The Class A shares will be entitled on redemption to the benefit of any capital appreciation in the market price of the shares in the portfolio.

The Company has been created to provide investors with an opportunity to invest in a portfolio of 15 U.S. financial services companies whose shares will likely continue to benefit from an improving economy. The Company will employ a covered call writing strategy to generate additional income to the portfolio.

The 15 portfolio companies will be selected from a portfolio universe consisting of the following 20 companies:

American Express Company City National Corporation Northern Trust Corporation
Bank of America Corporation Fifth Third Bancorp The PNC Financial Services Group Inc.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Regions Financial Corporation
BB&T Corporation JPMorgan Chase & Co. State Street Corporation
Capital One Financial Corp. KeyCorp. SunTrust Banks Inc.
Citigroup Inc. M&T Bank Corporation U.S. Bancorp
Morgan Stanley Wells Fargo & Company

The proposed offering is co-lead by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC World Markets Inc. The other members of the syndicate are BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc. and Mackie Research Capital Corporation.

Please visit our website at: www.primeusbanking.com

According to the preliminary prospectus:

The Shares will be redeemed by the Company in connection with its termination, scheduled to be on or about December 1, 2020, subject to the right of the Board of Directors of the Company, on the advice of Quadravest, to extend the termination date for further terms of five years each (the day the Company terminates being the “Termination Date”). The Company may also be terminated and the Shares redeemed prior to the Termination Date in certain circumstances. See “Termination of the Company”.

There is a NAV Test:

No regular monthly dividends will be paid on the Class A Shares in any month as long as any dividends on the Priority Equity Shares are then in arrears or so long as the net asset value per Unit is equal to or less than $15.00. Additionally, it is currently intended that no special year-end dividends will be paid if after payment of such a dividend the net asset value per Unit would be less than $20.00.

There is annual and monthly retractibility:

Shareholders retracting Shares on an Annual Retraction Date will be entitled to receive a retraction price per Share equal to the net asset value per Unit on the Annual Retraction Date, less any costs associated with the retraction including commissions and other such costs, if any, related to the liquidation of any portion of the Portfolio required to fund such retraction.

Except as noted below, holders of Priority Equity Shares whose shares are surrendered for [monthly] retraction will be entitled to receive a price per share (the “Priority Equity Share Retraction Price”) equal to the lesser of (i) $10.00 and (ii) 96% of the net asset value per Unit determined as of the Retraction Date, less in either case the cost to the Company of the purchase of a Class A Share in the market for cancellation and less any other applicable costs.

The Management Expense Ratio looks like it will be somewhere around 1.50%:

Quadravest is entitled to a management fee at an annual rate equal to 0.75% of the Company’s net asset value calculated as at the last Valuation Date in each month, plus an amount equal to the service fee (the “Service Fee”) payable to dealers, together with applicable taxes. Quadravest will pay the Service Fee to each registered dealer whose clients hold Shares. The Service Fee will be calculated and paid at the end of each calendar quarter and will be equal to 0.50% annually of the value of the Class A Shares held by clients of the dealer, plus applicable taxes. For these purposes, the value of a Class A Share at any time is the net asset value per Unit at such time less $10.00. No Service Fee will be paid in any calendar quarter if regular dividends are not paid to holders of Class A Shares in respect of each month of such calendar quarter.

The Company will pay for all other expenses incurred in connection with the operation and administration of the Company, estimated to be approximately $300,000 per annum.

Income coverage will be a major problem:

Based on the current dividends paid by the companies in the Portfolio Universe, the Company is initially expected to generate dividend income, net of withholding tax, of approximately 1.53% per annum. The Company would be required to generate an additional return, net of withholding tax, of approximately 6.0% per annum, including from dividend growth, capital appreciation and option premiums from the Portfolio, in order for the Company to pay these initial targeted distributions and maintain a stable net asset value.

Those who have read some of my writings about Split Share Credit Quality will understand the combined effects of cash shortfalls and portfolio volatility. It’s not pretty!

As usual, a lot of space is used up blathering about the ever so wonderful covered call writing strategy. I have never seen any Split Share Corporation publish any evidence that such a strategy has amounted to a row of beans. I find it rather amusing that they present earnest calculations of “Required Call Writing at Various Volatility Levels to Achieve Target Distribution”, without taking into account the idea that Black-Scholes specifies the fair price; i.e., any option premium earned may be assumed to be offset by capital gains foregone. But there’s one born every minute ….

This issue will not be tracked by HIMIPref™; the dependence upon the US Prime Rate means there are insufficient comparables.

Update, 2013-10-28: I understand that the new issue has been withdrawn. However, there is no confirmation of this as yet on the Quadravest website, the fund’s website or SEDAR.

October 1, 2013

Wednesday, October 2nd, 2013

Tiff Macklem gave a speech to the Economic Club of Canada titled Global Growth and the Prospects for Canada’s Exports – I found Chart 12 to be of great interest:

A second factor influencing our exports is competitiveness. Between 2000 and 2012, the labour cost of producing a unit of output in Canada compared with the United States, adjusted for the exchange rate, increased by 75 per cent (Chart 12). The majority of this loss of competitiveness reflects the appreciation of the Canadian dollar (shown in blue), but weak productivity growth in Canada relative to the United States also played a significant role (shown in green).


Click for Big

From the bureaucrats at the UBC Staff Pension Plan comes an excellent lesson in bafflement via bullshit:

“We have what is called a target benefit plan,” says Mr. Parker, who is executive director of the University of British Columbia’s staff pension plan.

In a target plan, the employer and its employees make fixed contributions, similar to a defined contribution plan. The payouts that can be expected are set as a target, which depends on projections, made by actuarial experts, of what the plan will be able to afford.

So in other words, it’s a Defined Contribution plan but they don’t want to say the words, so instead of handing over the dollar value of the account on retirement, they hand over a package of benefits, that may or may not increase or decrease and which will disappear when the beneficiary dies. Well done!

Fitch is unimpressed with the games in Washington:

The US government shutdown is not in itself a downgrade trigger for the sovereign’s ‘AAA’/Negative rating. However, it undermines confidence in both the budgetary process and critically in the prospect of the debt ceiling being raised in a timely manner to avert the risk of default on US sovereign debt obligations, says Fitch Ratings in a reiteration of its June 28 rating commentary.

A formal review of the rating with potentially negative implications would be triggered if the US government has not raised the federal debt ceiling in a timely manner prior to when the Treasury will have exhausted extraordinary measures and cash reserves. According to official comments by the US Treasury secretary, extraordinary measures could be exhausted by 17 October.

In such a scenario, the Treasury would be forced to dramatically cut back on current spending with adverse implications for the economic recovery. Even if it were to prioritise debt service – something the Treasury has repeatedly stated it has neither the legal authority nor logistical capability to do – it would likely incur arrears on a range of payment obligations and thus continue to incur debt, but in a disorderly and disruptive manner.

Even if the debt limit is not raised in a timely manner we believe there is sufficient political will and capacity to ensure that Treasury securities will continue to be honoured in full and on time. Nevertheless, investor confidence in the full faith and credit of the US would be undermined in such a scenario. This “faith” is a key underpinning of the US dollar’s global reserve currency status and reason why the US ‘AAA’ rating can tolerate a substantially higher level of public debt than other ‘AAA’ sovereigns.

Non-essential operations of the federal government will cease from today – the government shutdown – after the US House of Representatives and Senate failed to agree a continuing resolution to grant it the necessary spending authority.

Further to my rant of September 25, I was infuriated by the “Moment in Time” feature in today’s Globe (not available on-line), which claimed that “[Henry Ford] raised wages so his workers could become customers”, I looked around more carefully and found this:

It should be obvious that this story doesn’t work: Boeing would most certainly be in trouble if they had to pay their workers sufficient to afford a new jetliner. It’s also obviously true that you want every other employer to be paying their workers sufficient that they can afford your products: but that’s very much not the same as claiming that Ford should pay his workers so that they can afford Fords.

Ford’s turnover rate was very high. In 1913, Ford hired more than 52,000 men to keep a workforce of only 14,000.

Car production in the year before the pay rise was 170,000, in the year of it 202,000. As we can see above the total labour establishment was only 14,000 anyway. Even if all of his workers bought a car every year it wasn’t going to make any but a marginal difference to the sales of the firm.

We can go further too. As we’ve seen the rise in the daily wage was from $2.25 to $5 (including the bonuses etc). Say 240 working days in the year and 14,000 workers and we get a rise in the pay bill of $9 1/4 million over the year. A Model T cost between $550 and $450 (depends on which year we’re talking about). 14,000 cars sold at that price gives us $7 3/4 million to $6 1/4 million in income to the company.

It should be obvious that paying the workforce an extra $9 million so that they can then buy $7 million’s worth of company production just isn’t a way to increase your profits. It’s a great way to increase your losses though.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 30bp, FixedResets off 3bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Not surprisingly, there’s a bit of a skew in the Performance Highlights table towards winning PerpetualDiscounts. Volume was average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2853 % 2,534.8
FixedFloater 4.29 % 3.61 % 31,089 18.08 1 0.7734 % 3,871.7
Floater 2.67 % 2.86 % 66,116 20.11 5 0.2853 % 2,736.9
OpRet 4.63 % 2.61 % 63,724 0.49 3 0.1674 % 2,637.8
SplitShare 4.76 % 5.03 % 60,188 4.03 6 0.1285 % 2,945.5
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1674 % 2,412.0
Perpetual-Premium 5.75 % 0.37 % 111,952 0.12 8 0.2829 % 2,279.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.50 % 5.55 % 148,220 14.46 30 0.3039 % 2,360.0
FixedReset 4.94 % 3.69 % 237,575 3.65 85 -0.0280 % 2,456.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.12 % 4.44 % 201,038 6.89 43 0.0333 % 2,381.2
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.35
Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible -1.40 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
TRP.PR.A FixedReset -1.38 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount -1.08 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.14
Evaluated at bid price : 20.14
Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
FTS.PR.F Perpetual-Discount 1.06 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
PWF.PR.R Perpetual-Discount 1.17 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 24.73
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 1.25 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 24.21
Bid-YTW : 3.67 %
W.PR.H Perpetual-Discount 1.26 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.91
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
CGI.PR.D SplitShare 1.31 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.91
Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
TRI.PR.B Floater 1.39 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.10
Evaluated at bid price : 21.10
Bid-YTW : 2.50 %
FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount 1.90 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.33
Evaluated at bid price : 23.65
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
CU.PR.C FixedReset 104,121 Desjardins crossed 100,000 at 25.00.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 59,870 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 24.70.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.57
Bid-YTW : 4.21 %
BNS.PR.Q FixedReset 52,414 RBC bought 11,800 from National at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible 39,809 Desjardins crossed 15,600 at 21.77, then bought 17,200 from Anonymous at 21.75.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.75
Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 31,981 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.26
Evaluated at bid price : 21.26
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %
BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 31,541 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
RY.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.49 – 25.82
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2109

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.49
Bid-YTW : 3.92 %

BMO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.12 – 26.42
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.1916

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-05-25
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.12
Bid-YTW : 4.25 %

CIU.PR.A Perpetual-Discount Quote: 20.68 – 21.42
Spot Rate : 0.7400
Average : 0.6337

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.68
Evaluated at bid price : 20.68
Bid-YTW : 5.63 %

BAM.PR.X FixedReset Quote: 22.44 – 22.88
Spot Rate : 0.4400
Average : 0.3380

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 22.01
Evaluated at bid price : 22.44
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 24.65 – 24.99
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2458

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.65
Bid-YTW : 5.24 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 21.82 – 22.39
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4804

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2043-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.46
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %

TD.PR.Y To Reset At 3.5595%

Tuesday, October 1st, 2013

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced:

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series Y (the “Series Y Shares”) and Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series Z (the “Series Z Shares”).

With respect to any Series Y Shares that remain outstanding after October 31, 2013, holders of the Series Y Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly fixed non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the 5-year period from and including October 31, 2013 to but excluding October 31, 2018 will be 3.5595%, being equal to the 5-Year Government of Canada bond yield determined as at October 1, 2013 plus 1.68%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series Y Shares.

With respect to any Series Z Shares that may be issued on October 31, 2013, holders of the Series Z Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days elapsed in such quarterly period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the floating rate period from and including October 31, 2013 to but excluding January 31, 2014 will be 2.666%, being equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield determined as of October 1, 2013 plus 1.68%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series Z Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series Y Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right on or prior to the deadline for exercise, which is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on October 16, 2013.

The new rate of 3.5595%, is $0.889875 p.a. This represents a steep decline from the original rate of 5.10% (or $1.275 p.a.), so my mailbox will be filling up shortly with outraged queries from casual investors.

We can examine the comparables with the help of the Pairs Equivalency Calculator:

FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pairs
FixedReset FloatingReset Next
Exchange
Date
Implied
3-Month
Bill Rate
BNS.PR.P BNS.PR.A 2018-4-26 2.61%
TD.PR.S TD.PR.T 2018-7-31 2.32%
BMO.PR.M BMO.PR.R 2018-8-25 2.14%

The closing bid for TD.PR.Y yesterday was 25.06; assuming this holds after the conversion privilege is no longer available then the average implied three-month bill rate of 2.36% calculated above in turn implies a bid on the new issue of 25.58.

So, as of right now, it looks like conversion is recommended. Naturally, investors will want to wait until the last moment before making a decision.

Additionally, it will be noted that although the deadline for notifying the company is October 16, intermediary brokers will almost always have earlier internal deadlines. Also, it is normal that trades must be settled before notice can be given … so for most brokers, I suggest that the last day for trading the issue in the hopes of reaping enormous profits on conversion will be Wednesday October 9 (remember there is a skip-day for Thanksgiving). This strategy didn’t work very well for the BMO.PR.M / BMO.PR.R conversion, when the price of BMO.PR.M was supported by the conversion privilege and promptly sank after the last trading day to settle prior to the notification date.

On the other hand, the current bid of 25.06 for TD.PR.Y gives a current yield of 3.55% (calculated from the new 3.5595% coupon rate), compared to an average Current Yield of 3.42% for the FixedResets noted above. On that basis – without looking at anything else – TD.PR.Y looks cheap.

On the other hand, the FloatingReset resulting from TD.PR.Y conversion will pay three-month bills +168. BMO.PR.R pays +165 and is bid at 25.11; TD.PR.S pays +160 and is bid at 25.38; both are above today’s bid on TD.PR.Y, but certainly nothing to run around mortgaging the farm for.

So … some might wish to speculate, on the basis that TD.PR.Y should be priced higher than it is and the FloatingReset issue that results from conversion should be higher still. Just remember it’s a speculation!

DGS.PR.A Extends Term, Proposes Treasury Offering

Tuesday, October 1st, 2013

Brompton Group has announced:

Dividend Growth Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus with respect to a treasury offering of class A and preferred shares. The class A and preferred share offering prices will be set at levels that ensure that existing unitholders are not diluted.

Dividend Growth Split Corp. invests in a portfolio of common shares of high quality, large capitalization companies, which have among the highest dividend growth rates of those companies included in the S&P/TSX Composite Index. Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of the following 20 companies:

Great-West Lifeco Inc. The Bank of Nova Scotia AGF Management Limited Shaw Communications Inc.
Industrial Alliance Insurance
and Financial Services Inc.
Canadian Imperial Bank
of Commerce
IGM Financial Inc. TELUS Corporation
Manulife Financial Corporation National Bank of Canada Power Corporation of Canada Canadian Utilities Limited
Sun Life Financial Inc. Royal Bank of Canada Manitoba Telecom Services Enbridge Inc.
Bank of Montreal The Toronto-Dominion Bank Rogers Communications Inc. TransCanada Corporation

The investment objectives for the class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 per class A share, and to provide the opportunity for growth in net asset value per class A share.

The investment objectives for the preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions currently in the amount of $0.13125 per preferred share, representing a yield on the original issue price of 5.25% per annum, and to return the original issue price to holders of preferred shares on the original November 30, 2014 maturity date.

The Company is also pleased to announce that the board of directors has approved an extension of the maturity date of the class A and preferred shares of the Company for an additional 5 year term to November 28, 2019. The preferred share dividend rate for the extended term will be announced at least 60 days prior to the original November 30, 2014 maturity date. The new dividend rate will be determined based on then-current market yields for preferred shares with similar terms.

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being led by RBC Capital Markets and CIBC and includes Scotiabank, TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc., Dundee Securities Ltd., Mackie Research Capital Corporation, and Macquarie Private Wealth Inc.