Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

BRF.PR.E: Coercive Exchange Offer

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P. has announced:

the commencement of an offer to exchange (the “Exchange Offer”) each issued and outstanding Class A Preference Share, Series 5 of Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc. (TSX:BRF.PR.E) (“BRP Equity”) with an annual dividend rate of 5.00% (collectively, the “Series 5 Preferred Shares”) for one newly issued Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Unit, Series 5 of Brookfield Renewable with an annual distribution rate of 5.59% (collectively, the “Series 5 Preferred Units”). The annual distribution rate on each Series 5 Preferred Unit will be C$1.3976, compared to the annual dividend rate of C$1.25 on each Series 5 Preferred Share.

Holders of Series 5 Preferred Shares (“Series 5 Preferred Shareholders”) will be entitled to receive one Series 5 Preferred Unit for each Series 5 Preferred Share tendered under the Exchange Offer. Each of the guarantors of the Series 5 Preferred Shares will also be a guarantor of the Series 5 Preferred Units, other than the issuer, Brookfield Renewable. The Series 5 Preferred Units have been assigned a provisional rating of “Pfd-3 (high)” by DBRS Limited (“DBRS”) and a preliminary rating of “P-3 (high)” by Standard & Poor’s Rating Services, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (“S&P”), which are the same ratings currently assigned by DBRS and S&P to the Series 5 Preferred Shares.

The Exchange Offer will be open for acceptance until 5:00 p.m. (Toronto Time) on December 18, 2015, unless extended or withdrawn by Brookfield Renewable. The Exchange Offer is conditional upon, among other things, at least 50% of the Series 5 Preferred Shares having been validly deposited or tendered under the Exchange Offer and not withdrawn, which condition may be waived by Brookfield Renewable.

The Exchange Offer is being made pursuant to a supplement to Brookfield Renewable’s short form base shelf prospectus dated May 12, 2015 (the “Prospectus Supplement”) that will be filed today with securities regulatory authorities in each of the provinces and territories of Canada.

Series 5 Preferred Shareholders should consider the following factors, among others, in making a decision whether to accept the Exchange Offer:
•Increased distributions: The annual distribution rate on the Series 5 Preferred Units is 5.59% (C$1.3976), compared to the annual dividend rate of 5.00% (C$1.25) for the Series 5 Preferred Shares.

•Substantially similar other terms and conditions: The other terms and conditions of the Series 5 Preferred Units will be substantially similar to those of the Series 5 Preferred Shares, other than certain technical amendments noted in the Prospectus Supplement.

•Unanimous Board Recommendation: The board of directors of the general partner of Brookfield Renewable and the board of directors of BRP Equity, after reviewing the Fairness Opinion (as defined below) have unanimously recommended that Series 5 Preferred Shareholders accept the Exchange Offer and deposit their Series 5 Preferred Shares pursuant to the Exchange Offer.

•Fairness Opinion: The Partnership and BRP Equity engaged PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP to provide an opinion to the effect that, subject to the assumptions, limitations and qualifications contained therein, the consideration to be received under the Exchange Offer is fair, from a financial point of view, to the holders of Series 5 Preferred Shares (the “Fairness Opinion”).

Full details of the Exchange Offer are contained in the Prospectus Supplement and other related documents that will be mailed today to the registered holder of all Series 5 Preferred Shares as required under applicable Canadian securities laws. Copies of the Prospectus Supplement and other relevant documents will be available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and on Brookfield Renewable’s website at www.brookfieldrenewable.com. Brookfield Renewable has also commenced the process of mailing to beneficial holders of Series 5 Preferred Shares. Series 5 Preferred Shareholders are urged to evaluate carefully all information in the Exchange Offer, including risk factors, and to consult their own investment, tax and legal advisors.

Computershare Investor Services Inc. is the Depositary for the Exchange Offer and D.F. King Canada, a division of CST Investor Services Inc., is the Information Agent. Any questions or requests for assistance concerning the Exchange Offer or further information about tendering to the Exchange Offer should be directed to the Depositary at 1-800-564-6253 (toll free in North America) or 1-514-982-7555, or by e-mail at corporateactions@computershare.com; or to the Information Agent at 1-800-332-4904 (toll free in North America) or 1-201-806-7301, or by e-mail at inquiries@dfking.com.

Copies of the Prospectus Supplement and any other documents relating to the Exchange Offer as referred to above may be obtained free of charge upon request to the Depositary or the Information Agent. Series 5 Preferred Shareholders whose Series 5 Preferred Shares are registered in the name of a broker, investment dealer, bank, trust company or other nominee should contact such nominee for assistance in depositing their Series 5 Preferred Shares to the Exchange Offer.

BRF.PR.E is a Straight Perpetual, 5.00%, which commenced trading 2013-1-29 after being announced 2013-1-21. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

I consider this offer coercive because, according to the prospectus supplement:

Following the completion of the Exchange Offer and any Subsequent Acquisition or Compulsory Acquisition Transaction relating thereto, the Partnership intends to cause BRP Equity to apply to the TSX to delist the Series 5 Preferred Shares from trading. See “The Exchange Offer – Effect of the Exchange Offer on the Market for Series 5 Preferred Shares, Listing and Public Disclosure by BRP Equity”.

The more detailed explanation is:

Effect of the Exchange Offer on the Market for Series 5 Preferred Shares, Listing and Public Disclosure by BRP Equity

If, after taking up Series 5 Preferred Shares under the Exchange Offer, the Partnership holds a sufficient number of Series 5 Preferred Shares, the Partnership intends to effect a Subsequent Acquisition Transaction or, if a sufficient number of Series 5 Preferred Shares are tendered, a Compulsory Acquisition. In such event, if permitted by applicable Law, the Partnership will apply to delist the Series 5 Preferred Shares from the TSX and there will no longer be a trading market for the Series 5 Preferred Shares.

Even if the Subsequent Acquisition Transaction or Compulsory Acquisition cannot be completed as quickly as intended, the purchase of Series 5 Preferred Shares by the Partnership pursuant to the Exchange Offer will reduce the number of Series 5 Preferred Shares that might otherwise trade publicly, as well as the number of Series 5 Preferred Shareholders and would likely adversely affect the liquidity and market value of the remaining Series 5 Preferred Shares held by the public.

A decline in liquidity is all part of the game, but it will be noted that company is not making any commitment to maintain the listing in any scenarios that are not specified in the above. Note that:

Resident Holders are cautioned that, if the Series 5 Preferred Shares are no longer listed on a “designated stock exchange” (which currently includes the TSX) and BRP Equity ceases to be a “public corporation” for purposes of the Tax Act, the Series 5 Preferred Shares will not be qualified investments for trusts governed by RRSPs, RRIFs, registered education savings plans, registered disability savings plans, deferred profit sharing plans or TFSAs. Resident Holders are urged to consult their own tax advisors with respect to the potential income tax consequences to them in this regard.

So that’s the stick. The carrot is:

Increased distributions: The annual distribution rate on the Series 5 Preferred Units is 5.59%, compared to the annual dividend rate of 5.00% for the Series 5 Preferred Shares.

But the difficult part is the tax considerations. First off, this is not a tax-free rollover:

A Holder of Series 5 Preferred Shares who for purposes of the Tax Act (as defined herein) and at all relevant times, is or is deemed to be resident in Canada (a “Resident Holder”) who exchanges Series 5 Preferred Shares for Series 5 Preferred Units pursuant to the Exchange Offer will be considered to have disposed of such Series 5 Preferred Shares for proceeds of disposition equal to the fair market value, as at the time of acquisition, of the Series 5 Preferred Units acquired by such Resident Holder on the exchange. As a result, the Resident Holder generally will realize a capital gain (or capital loss) to the extent that such proceeds of disposition exceed (or are less than) the aggregate of the adjusted cost base to the purchaser of the Series 5 Preferred Shares so exchanged and any reasonable costs of disposition.

However, this is of relatively small concern, since the year-end 2014 bid was 21.40 compared to today’s closing bid of 21.05 (after a healthy pop in price today, +3.64%. It looks like some players like the offer!), so I suspect that most – although not all! – holders will crystallize a capital loss.

Of greater pith and moment is the nature of the dividends to be paid on the new Preferred Units:

For Canadian federal income tax purposes, holders of Series 5 Preferred Units will be allocated a portion of the taxable income of the Partnership based on their proportionate share of distributions received on their units. The allocation of taxable income to such holders may be less than the distributions received. This difference is commonly referred to as a tax deferred return of capital (i.e., returns that are initially non-taxable but which reduce the adjusted cost base of the holder’s units). See “Certain Canadian Federal Income Tax Considerations” in this Prospectus Supplement for further details. As shown in the table below, the historical 3 year average per unit Canadian dividends, ordinary income and return of capital (i.e., excess of distributions over allocated taxable income) expressed as a percentage of the annual distributions in respect of units of the Partnership for the period 2012 through 2014 were approximately 56%, 26%, and 18% respectively. Management anticipates the 5 year average per unit Canadian dividend, ordinary income and return of capital will be 50%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, for the period between 2015 and 2020; however, no assurance can be provided this will occur.

So let’s take them at their word and estimate the after tax return on BRF.PR.E compared to the new units (which pay a total of 5.59%). According to Ernst & Young, marginal tax rates for an Ontario resident with taxable income of $150,000 p.a. were 46.41% on income, 23.20% on capital gains and 29.52% on eligible dividends. Since the Return of Capital on the new units will eventually be taxed as a capital gain but only when the gain or loss is crystallized, let’s apply a 25% discount to the capital gain marginal rate to reflect the time value of the money; hence, we will assume that the Return of Capital is subject to tax at a rate of 23.20% * 75% = 17.4%:

Taxation comparison of distributions
  BRF.PR.E New Security
Distribution
Type
Pre Tax Amount Tax Net Pre Tax Amount Tax Net
Eligible
Dividend
1.25 0.369 0.881 0.69875 0.20627 0.49248
Ordinary
Income
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.349375 0.162145 0.187230
Return
of
Capital
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.349375 0.060791 0.288584
Total 1.25 0.369 0.881 1.3975 0.4292 0.9683

So on the surface it seems like a genuine improvement – the after-tax income per share will increase from 0.881 to 0.9683, a 9.9% hike. However, note that there are no guarantees offered by the company! If it should come to pass that 100% of the distributions are ordinary income, then tax at 46.41% will come to 0.6486 and the net after-tax amount will be 0.7489, a 15.0% decline. So there’s a certain amount of tax-risk here, depending on the nature of the company’s distributions.

DBRS has assigned a provisional rating of Pfd-3(high) to the issue:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today assigned a provisional rating of Pfd-3 (high) with a Stable trend to Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P.’s (BREP; rated BBB (high), Stable trend) proposed new issuance of Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 5 (Preferred LP Units).

I will not make a recommendation regarding tendering holdings of BRF.PR.E at this time, and I might not make a recommendation at all. But feel free to comment!

Issue Comments

Moody's: BNS On Review-Negative

Moody’s Investors Service has announced that it:

has placed the long term ratings, Counterparty Risk Assessment and Baseline Credit Assessment of Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS, Aa2/Aa2 negative, a1) and its subsidiaries on review for downgrade, and affirmed BNS’s Prime-1 short-term deposit rating, short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment and other short term ratings.

Moody’s said the review was prompted by BNS having taken significant measures to increase its profitability that signal a fundamental shift away from the bank’s traditionally low risk appetite. These strategic actions are intended to enhance current profitability (BNS reports the lowest domestic net interest margin of the six largest Canadian banks), but in Moody’s view increase the prospect of future incremental credit losses when the credit cycle turns.

Over the last two years, BNS has accelerated the growth in its credit card and auto finance portfolios, in accordance with its strategic initiatives to expand these portfolios, both of which are particularly prone to rapid deterioration during an economic shock and exhibit higher defaults and loss severities than mortgage portfolios. Personal and credit cards loans grew at a CAGR of 8% over the past two years, the highest among the six large Canadian peer banks. In addition, BNS has made a series of acquisitions away from its strong domestic franchise towards higher-growth but less stable international markets.

During the review period, Moody’s will review the likelihood that BNS’s increased risk tolerance and strategic imperative to increase profitability by shifting the asset mix towards higher yielding categories of consumer credit, both domestically and in international operations, will persist. Moody’s will also undertake further analysis of the operating environments of the regions outside of Canada where BNS operates, and the bank’s strategy and performance in these regions. Moody’s will also assess the implications of the shift in risk tolerance, balanced against the strategic plan to enhance profitability and shareholder returns.

Given the direction of the review, upward pressure on the rating is unlikely. Downward pressure will depend upon our assessment of the items noted above as the focus of our review.

Doug Alexander of Bloomberg observes:

Debtholders already weighed in on the Toronto-based bank: Scotiabank’s Canadian dollar bonds are the worst performing among Canada’s six largest lenders this year.

Scotiabank is rated Aa2 by Moody’s, surpassed only by Toronto-Dominion Bank’s Aa1 grade. Royal Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and National Bank of Canada carry Aa3 ratings. Moody’s last downgraded Scotiabank in January 2013.

Canadian consumers, already saddled with record household debt, have pushed the ratio of debt to disposable income to almost double that of the nation’s last severe recession in 1992, when unemployment hit 11.7 percent. Canadian card losses typically average around 3 percent of overall balances and soar to 7.5 percent in troubled times, whereas losses from mortgages are about 0.02 percent and have reached 0.1 percent in recessions, Moody’s said.

Scotiabank’s Canadian dollar bonds had a year-to-date total return of 1.5 percent as of Nov. 6, trailing the returns of Canada’s other so-called Big 6 lenders.

Scotia has a raft of preferred shares currently extant which could potentially be downgraded: BNS.PR.A, BNS.PR.B, BNS.PR.C, BNS.PR.D, BNS.PR.L, BNS.PR.M, BNS.PR.N, BNS.PR.O, BNS.PR.P, BNS.PR.Q, BNS.PR.R, BNS.PR.Y and BNS.PR.Z.

Issue Comments

GWO.PR.N To Be Extended

Great-West Lifeco Inc. has announced:

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem its outstanding Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series N (the “Series N Shares”) on December 31, 2015. As a result, subject to certain conditions, the holders of the Series N Shares have the right to convert all or any of their Series N Shares into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series O (the “Series O Shares”) on a one-for-one basis on December 31, 2015. A formal notice of the right to convert Series N Shares into Series O Shares will be sent to the registered holder of the Series N Shares in accordance with the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions attached to the Series N Shares. Holders of Series N Shares who do not exercise their right to convert their Series N Shares into Series O Shares on such date will retain their Series N Shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the conditions that: (i) if Lifeco determines that if, following such conversions, there would be less than one million Series O Shares outstanding on December 31, 2015, no Series N Shares may be converted into Series O Shares, and (ii) alternatively, if Lifeco determines that if, following such conversions, there would be less than one million Series N Shares outstanding on December 31, 2015, then all remaining Series N Shares will automatically be converted into Series O Shares on a one-for-one basis on December 31, 2015. In either case, Lifeco will give written notice to that effect to any registered holder affected by the preceding conditions on or before Thursday, December 24, 2015.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series N Shares for the five-year period commencing on December 31, 2015 and ending on December 30, 2020, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series O Shares for the three-month period commencing on December 31, 2015 and ending on March 30, 2016, will be determined on Tuesday, December 1, 2015 and written notice thereof will be given to the registered holder of the Series N Shares on that day.

Beneficial owners of Series N Shares who wish to have their Series N Shares converted into Series O Shares should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to ensure their instructions are followed so that the registered holder of the Series N Shares can meet the deadline to exercise such conversion right, which is 5:00 p.m. (ET) on Wednesday, December 16, 2015.

Lifeco may redeem the Series N Shares, in whole or in part, on December 31, 2020 and on December 31 every five years thereafter for $25.00 per share plus declared and unpaid dividends and may redeem the Series O Shares, in whole or in part, after December 31, 2015 for $25.50 per share plus declared and unpaid dividends, unless such Series O Shares are redeemed on December 31, 2020 or on December 31 every five years thereafter, in which case the redemption price will be $25.00 per share plus declared and unpaid dividends.

No surprises here, since GWO.PR.N is a FixedReset, 3.65%+130, which commenced trading 2010-11-23 after being announced 2010-11-15. The issue was met with disfavour and there was an inventory clearance sale closing 2010-12-3.

Note that since the issue is issued by an insurance holding company and is not convertible into common at the option of the issuer, I consider it to have a “Deemed Maturity” 2025-1-31 (this date may change in the future). This is due to my belief that OSFI will eventually extend the Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC) rules to insurers and insurance holding companies. There is a brief explanation of this on the PrefLetter website (under the heading “DeemedRetractibles”) and with more detailed argument and progress reports on international negotiations in every edition of PrefLetter.

I will note that the market does not share my views regarding future application of the NVCC rules insurers and insurance issues trade very similarly to perpetuals.

Issue Comments

Low-Spread FixedResets: October 2015

As noted in MAPF Portfolio Composition: October 2015, the fund now has a large allocation to FixedResets, mostly of relatively low spread.

Many of these were largely purchased with proceeds of sales of DeemedRetractibles from the same issuer; it is interesting to look at the price trend of some of the Straight/FixedReset pairs. We’ll start with GWO.PR.N / GWO.PR.I; the fund sold the latter to buy the former at a takeout of about $1.00 in mid-June, 2014; relative prices over the past year are plotted as:

GWOPRN_GWOPRI_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

Given that the October month-end take-out was $7.49, this is clearly a trade that has not worked out very well.

In July, 2014, I reported sales of SLF.PR.D to purchase SLF.PR.G at a take-out of about $0.15:

SLFPRG_SLFPRD_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

There were similar trades in August, 2014 (from SLF.PR.C) at a take-out of $0.35. The October month-end take-out (bid price SLF.PR.D less bid price SLF.PR.G) was $5.65, so that hasn’t worked very well either.

November saw the third insurer-based sector swap, as the fund sold MFC.PR.C to buy the FixedReset MFC.PR.F at a post-dividend-adjusted take-out of about $0.85 … given a October month-end take-out of $6.62, that’s another regrettable trade, although another piece executed in December at a take-out of $1.57 has less badly.

SLFPRG_SLFPRD_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

This trend is not restricted to the insurance sector, which I expect will become subject to NVCC rules in the relatively near future and are thus subject to the same redemption assumptions I make for DeemedRetractibles. Other pairs of interest are BAM.PR.X / BAM.PR.N:

BAMPRX_BAMPRN_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

… and FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.J:

FTSPRH_FTSPRJ_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

… and PWF.PR.P / PWF.PR.S:

PWFPRP_PWFPRS_151030_bidDiff
Click for Big

I will agree that the fund’s trades highlighted in this post may be decried as cases of monumental bad timing, but I should point out that in May, 2014, the fund was 63.9% Straight / 9.5% FixedReset while in May 2015 the fund was 12% Straight / 86% FixedReset, FloatingReset and FixedFloater (The latter figures include allocations from those usually grouped as ‘Scraps’). Given that the indices are roughly 30% Straight / 60% FixedReset & FloatingReset, it is apparent that the fund was extremely overweighted in Straights / underweighted in FixedResets in May 2014 but this situation has now reversed. HIMIPref™ analytics have been heavily favouring low-spread issues and the fund’s holdings are overwhelmingly of this type.

Summarizing the charts above in tabular form, we see:

FixedReset Straight Take-out
December 2013
Take-out
MAPF Trade
Take-out
December 2014
September 2015 October 2015
GWO.PR.N
3.65%+130
GWO.PR.I
4.5%
($0.04) $1.00 $2.95 7.21 7.49
SLF.PR.G
4.35%+141
SLF.PR.D
4.45%
($1.29) $0.25 $2.16 5.17 5.65
MFC.PR.F
4.20%+141
MFC.PR.C
4.50%
($1.29) $0.86 $1.20 6.62 6.88
BAM.PR.X
4.60%+180
BAM.PR.N
4.75%
($2.06)   $0.17 5.51 5.18
FTS.PR.H
4.25%+145
FTS.PR.J
4.75%
$0.60   $5.68 8.20 8.04
PWF.PR.P
4.40%+160
PWF.PR.S
4.80%
($0.67)   $3.00 6.72 7.99
The ‘Take-Out’ is the bid price of the Straight less the bid price of the FixedReset; approximate execution prices are used for the “MAPF Trade” column. Bracketted figures in the ‘Take-Out’ columns indicate a ‘Pay-Up’

In January, a slow decline due to fears of deflation got worse with Canada yields plummeting after the Bank of Canada rate cut with speculation rife about future cuts although this slowly died away.

And in late March / early April it got worse again, with one commenter attributing at least some of the blame to the John Heinzl piece in which I pointed out the expected reduction in dividend payouts! In May, a rise in the markets in the first half of the month was promptly followed by a slow decline in the latter half; perhaps due to increased fears that a lousy Canadian economy will delay a Canadian tightening. Changes in June varied as the markets were in an overall decline.

In August we saw increased fear of global deflation emanating from China, although the ‘China Effect’ is disputed.

In September the market just collapsed for no apparent reason; in October the market reversed the September collapse for no apparent reason.

All in all, I take the view that we’ve seen this show before: during the Credit Crunch, Floaters got hit extremely badly (to the point at which their fifteen year total return was negative) because (as far as I can make out) their dividend rate was dropping (as it was linked to Prime) while the yields on other perpetual preferred instruments were skyrocketing (due to credit concerns). Thus, at least some investors insisted on getting long term corporate yields from rates based (indirectly and with a lag, in the case of FixedResets) on short-term government policy rates. And it’s happening again!

There is further discussion of the extremely poor performance in the seven months to July 31 of FixedResets in the post eMail to a Client. Things haven’t really changed since that was written; they’ve just gotten ever so much more so.

Here’s the October performance for FixedResets that had a YTW Scenario of ‘To Perpetuity’ at mid-month.:

FRPerf_151030_1Mo
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The market was very disorderly in October and correlations of performance are negligible, whether against spread or term-to-reset. However, I have added the regression line for the Pfd-3 group to the above chart, not because the correlation is so great (at only 8%, it isn’t) but because it shows that to the extent that there is a correlation between spreads and returns, the slope is negative.

FRPerf_151030_1Mo_Term
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Interestingly, though, three month performance is well correlated for the Pfd-2 group (40%), although no significant relationship is found for the Pfd-3 group:

FRPerf_151030_3Mo
Click for Big
Issue Comments

PVS.PR.E Sinks on Lousy Volume

Partners Value Split Inc. has announced:

the completion of its previously announced issue of 4,000,000 Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 7 (the “Series 7 Preferred Shares”) at an offering price of $25.00 per Series 7 Preferred Share, raising gross proceeds of $100,000,000. The Series 7 Preferred Shares carry quarterly fixed cumulative preferential dividends representing a 5.50% annualized yield on the offering price and have a final maturity of October 31, 2022. The Series 7 Preferred Shares have been listed and posted for trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol PVS.PR.E. The net proceeds of the offering will be used to redeem the Company’s outstanding Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 1 no later than March 25, 2016, in accordance with the terms of the Series 1 Preferred Shares, and to pay a special dividend to holders of the Company’s capital shares.

Prior to the closing of the offering, the Company subdivided the existing capital shares held by Partners Value Investments Inc. so that there are an equal number of preferred shares and capital shares outstanding.

The Company owns a portfolio consisting of 79,740,966 Class A Limited Voting Shares of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. (the “Brookfield Shares”) which is expected to yield quarterly dividends that are sufficient to fund quarterly fixed cumulative preferential dividends for the holders of the Company’s preferred shares and to enable the holders of the Company’s capital shares to participate in any capital appreciation of the Brookfield Shares.

DBRS has rated the issue Pfd-2(low):

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today finalized the provisional rating of Pfd-2 (low) on the Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 7 (the Series 7 Preferred Shares) issued by Partners Value Split Corp. (the Company) and has confirmed the ratings of the previously issued Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 1; Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 3; Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 5; and Class AA Preferred Shares, Series 6 (collectively, with the Series 7 Preferred Shares, the Class AA Preferred Shares) at Pfd-2 (low).

Following the redemption of the Series 1 Preferred Shares, the downside protection available to the Class AA Preferred Shares is expected to be approximately 83% (based on the closing price of BAM shares as of October 22, 2015) and the dividend coverage ratio is expected to be above 1.7 times (based on the Canadian dollar and U.S. dollar exchange rate as of October 22, 2015). BAM declares its dividend in U.S. dollars, so there is the risk that an appreciating Canadian dollar will cause the dividend coverage ratio to fall below 1.0 times. In the event of a shortfall, the Company may sell some of the BAM Shares, engage in security lending or write covered call options to generate sufficient income to satisfy its obligations to pay the Class AA Preferred Shares dividends. If the Company chooses to lend its holdings, the Portfolio would be exposed to the potential losses in the event that the borrower defaults on its obligations to return the borrowed securities.

The rating is based on the same rating rationale and rating considerations as all other series of Class AA Preferred Shares.

PVS.PR.E is a seven-year 5.50% SplitShare announced October 20. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the SplitShares subindex.

The issue traded a miserable 23,300 shares today in a range of 24.50-80 before settling at 24.52-55, 4×57. Vital statistics are:

PVS.PR.E SplitShare YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.52
Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
Issue Comments

Low-Spread FixedResets: September 2015

As noted in MAPF Portfolio Composition: September 2015, the fund now has a large allocation to FixedResets, mostly of relatively low spread.

Many of these were largely purchased with proceeds of sales of DeemedRetractibles from the same issuer; it is interesting to look at the price trend of some of the Straight/FixedReset pairs. We’ll start with GWO.PR.N / GWO.PR.I; the fund sold the latter to buy the former at a takeout of about $1.00 in mid-June, 2014; relative prices over the past year are plotted as:

GWOPRN_GWOPRI_150930_bidDiff
Click for Big

Given that the September month-end take-out was $7.21, this is clearly a trade that has not worked out very well.

In July, 2014, I reported sales of SLF.PR.D to purchase SLF.PR.G at a take-out of about $0.15:

SLFPRG_SLFPRD_150930_bidDiff
Click for Big

There were similar trades in August, 2014 (from SLF.PR.C) at a take-out of $0.35. The September month-end take-out (bid price SLF.PR.D less bid price SLF.PR.G) was $5.17, so that hasn’t worked very well either.

November saw the third insurer-based sector swap, as the fund sold MFC.PR.C to buy the FixedReset MFC.PR.F at a post-dividend-adjusted take-out of about $0.85 … given a September month-end take-out of $6.62, that’s another regrettable trade, although another piece executed in December at a take-out of $1.57 has less badly.

MFCPRF_MFCPRC_150930_bidDiff
Click for Big

This trend is not restricted to the insurance sector, which I expect will become subject to NVCC rules in the relatively near future and are thus subject to the same redemption assumptions I make for DeemedRetractibles. Other pairs of interest are BAM.PR.X / BAM.PR.N:

BAMPRX_BAMPRN_150930_bidDiff
Click for Big

… and FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.J:

FTSPRH_FTSPRJ_150930_bidDiff
Click for Big

… and PWF.PR.P / PWF.PR.S:

PWFPRP_PWFPRS_150930_bidDiff
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I will agree that the fund’s trades highlighted in this post may be decried as cases of monumental bad timing, but I should point out that in May, 2014, the fund was 63.9% Straight / 9.5% FixedReset while in May 2015 the fund was 12% Straight / 86% FixedReset, FloatingReset and FixedFloater (The latter figures include allocations from those usually grouped as ‘Scraps’). Given that the indices are roughly 30% Straight / 60% FixedReset & FloatingReset, it is apparent that the fund was extremely overweighted in Straights / underweighted in FixedResets in May 2014 but this situation has now reversed. HIMIPref™ analytics have been heavily favouring low-spread issues and the fund’s holdings are overwhelmingly of this type.

Summarizing the charts above in tabular form, we see:

FixedReset Straight Take-out
December 2013
Take-out
MAPF Trade
Take-out
December 2014
August 2015 September 2015
GWO.PR.N
3.65%+130
GWO.PR.I
4.5%
($0.04) $1.00 $2.95 6.85 7.21
SLF.PR.G
4.35%+141
SLF.PR.D
4.45%
($1.29) $0.25 $2.16 4.28 5.17
MFC.PR.F
4.20%+141
MFC.PR.C
4.50%
($1.29) $0.86 $1.20 4.88 6.62
BAM.PR.X
4.60%+180
BAM.PR.N
4.75%
($2.06)   $0.17 5.80 5.51
FTS.PR.H
4.25%+145
FTS.PR.J
4.75%
$0.60   $5.68 7.05 8.20
PWF.PR.P
4.40%+160
PWF.PR.S
4.80%
($0.67)   $3.00 6.39 6.72
The ‘Take-Out’ is the bid price of the Straight less the bid price of the FixedReset; approximate execution prices are used for the “MAPF Trade” column. Bracketted figures in the ‘Take-Out’ columns indicate a ‘Pay-Up’

In January, a slow decline due to fears of deflation got worse with Canada yields plummeting after the Bank of Canada rate cut with speculation rife about future cuts although this slowly died away.

And in late March / early April it got worse again, with one commenter attributing at least some of the blame to the John Heinzl piece in which I pointed out the expected reduction in dividend payouts! In May, a rise in the markets in the first half of the month was promptly followed by a slow decline in the latter half; perhaps due to increased fears that a lousy Canadian economy will delay a Canadian tightening. Changes in June varied as the markets were in an overall decline.

In August we saw increased fear of global deflation emanating from China, although the ‘China Effect’ is disputed.

In September the market just collapsed for no apparent reason.

All in all, I take the view that we’ve seen this show before: during the Credit Crunch, Floaters got hit extremely badly (to the point at which their fifteen year total return was negative) because (as far as I can make out) their dividend rate was dropping (as it was linked to Prime) while the yields on other perpetual preferred instruments were skyrocketing (due to credit concerns). Thus, at least some investors insisted on getting long term corporate yields from rates based (indirectly and with a lag, in the case of FixedResets) on short-term government policy rates. And it’s happening again!

There is further discussion of the extremely poor performance in the seven months to July 31 of FixedResets in the post eMail to a Client. Things haven’t really changed over the past two months; they’ve just gotten ever so much more so.

Here’s the September performance for FixedResets that had a YTW Scenario of ‘To Perpetuity’ at mid-month.:

LowSpreadFR_Perf_1Mo_150930
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The market was very disorderly in September and correlations of performance are negligible, whether against spread or term-to-reset.

LowSpreadFR_PerfTerm_1Mo_150930
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Issue Comments

RY.PR.P Smacked On Tiny Volume

Royal Bank of Canada has announced:

it has closed its domestic public offering of Non-Cumulative, Preferred Shares Series BJ. Royal Bank of Canada issued 6 million Preferred Shares Series BJ at a price of $25 per share to raise gross proceeds of $150 million.

The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by RBC Capital Markets. The Preferred Shares Series BJ will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange today under the ticker symbol RY.PR.P.

The Preferred Shares Series BJ were issued under a prospectus supplement dated September 28, 2015 to the bank’s short form base shelf prospectus dated December 20, 2013.

RY.PR.P is a PerpetualDiscount, 5.25%, announced September 24. The issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the PerpetualDiscount subindex.

The issue traded a miserable 73,494 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 24.40-80 before closing at 24.40-44, 15×29. Vital statistics are:

RY.PR.P Perpetual-Discount YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-10-02
Maturity Price : 24.04
Evaluated at bid price : 24.40
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

When only the NVCC-compliant issues are used for fitting the Implied Volatility curve, it appears that Implied Volatility is very low (which suggests that the relationship will steepen somewhat in the future) implying that higher-coupon issues are relatively expensive. However, there are only four data points to support this conclusion and the variety of coupon rates is minimal, so don’t mortgage the farm!

impVol_RY_151002
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On the other hand, the lower-coupon, explicitly NVCC-compliant issues (RY.PR.N and RY.PR.O) are trading at the same Current Yield at the new issue, which is crazy; they should be trading to yield a little less (with the 9% Implied Volatility shown, which is calculated including the NVCC-compliance-eligible RY.PR.W), the difference in Current Yield should be about 6bp.

Issue Comments

BAM.PF.H Firm On Good Volume

Brookfield Asset Management Inc. has announced:

the completion of its previously announced Class A Preference Shares, Series 44 issue in the amount of C$250,000,000. The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by Scotiabank, CIBC, RBC Capital Markets, and TD Securities Inc.

Brookfield issued 10,000,000 Series 44 Shares at a price of C$25.00 per share, for total gross proceeds of C$250,000,000. Holders of the Series 44 Shares will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 5.00% annually for the initial period ending December 31, 2020. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 4.17%, and (ii) 5.00%. The Series 44 Shares will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange this morning under the ticker symbol BAM.PF.H.

BAM.PF.H is a FixedReset, 5.00%+417M500, announced September 24. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedResets subindex.

The issue traded 1,304,995 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 24.95-03 before closing at 24.96-99, 14×57. Vital statistics are:

BAM.PF.H FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-10-02
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 4.93 %

Implied Volatility analysis for the BAM FixedResets is difficult to take seriously, since the fit is so poor – but it is interesting to compare the following chart with the chart published on the announcement day. The issue’s siblings have been very weak in the intervening time, with the low Expected Future Current Yield moving from about 4.40% to 4.60% and several issues moving to have an EFCY of about 5%, on a level with the new issue. I will point out that this equivalence makes no sense – lower-spread issues should trade with a lower yield as compensation for their lower risk of call. Mind you, all this ignores the rate floor on the new issue!

impVol_BAM_151002
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Issue Comments

ALA.PR.B Listed: 31% Conversion

AltaGas Ltd. has announced:

that 2,488,780 of its 8,000,000 Cumulative Redeemable Five-Year Fixed Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series A (“Series A Preferred Shares”) (TSX: ALA.PR.A) were tendered for conversion into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series B (the “Series B Preferred Shares”). As a result of the conversion AltaGas has 5,511,220 Series A Preferred Shares and 2,488,780 Series B Preferred Shares issued and outstanding. The Series A Preferred Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol ALA.PR.A. The Series B Preferred Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol ALA.PR.B.

The Series A Preferred Shares will continue to pay on a quarterly basis, for the five-year period beginning on September 30, 2015, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of AltaGas, a fixed dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 3.38 percent.

The Series B Preferred Shares will pay a floating quarterly dividend for the five-year period beginning on September 30, 2015, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of AltaGas. The floating quarterly dividend rate for the Series B Preferred Shares for the first quarterly floating rate period (being the period from September 30, 2015 to but excluding December 31, 2015) is 3.04 percent and will be reset every quarter.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series A Preferred Shares and the Series B Preferred Shares, please see the prospectus supplement dated August 11, 2010 which is available on www.sedar.com.

ALA.PR.A is a FixedReset, currently 3.38%+266. ALA.PR.B is its Strong Pair, a FloatingReset paying 266bp over three month bills, reset quarterly. Both issues will be tracked by HIMIPref™, both relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

The conversion rate was 31%, after my recommendation not to convert.

Vital statistics are:

ALA.PR.A FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-30
Maturity Price : 15.41
Evaluated at bid price : 15.41
Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
ALA.PR.B FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-30
Maturity Price : 15.50
Evaluated at bid price : 15.50
Bid-YTW : 4.95 %

Surprisingly, there were actually five trades today, totalling 600 shares – it’s very rare to see trades on the first day of a Floating Reset, since retail (typically) won’t be seeing the shares in their on-line accounts until reorg processes the entries in a batch after the close. But still, I wouldn’t take the quote of 15.50-89 all that seriously!

However:

pairs_FR_150930
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The ALA.PR.A / ALA.PR.B Strong Pair predicts an average three-month bill rate of 0.81% over the next five years, well above the average for investment-grade pairs.

Issue Comments

NPI.PR.B Listed: 25% Conversion

Northland Power Inc. has announced:

that 1,498,435 of its 6,000,000 Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 1 (“Series 1 Shares”) have been converted on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 2 (the “Series 2 Shares”). Consequently, effective today Northland will have 4,501,565 Series 1 Shares and 1,498,435 Series 2 Shares issued and outstanding.

The Series 1 Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “NPI.PR.A” and the Series 2 Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “NPI.PR.B”.

NPI.PR.A is a FixedReset, currently (after reset) 3.51%+280. NPI.PR.B is its FloatingReset Strong Pair, paying three-month bills +280. Both issues will be tracked by HIMIPref™, both relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

The conversion ratio was 25.0% after my recommendation not to convert.

Vital statistics are:

NPI.PR.A FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-30
Maturity Price : 14.41
Evaluated at bid price : 14.41
Bid-YTW : 6.22 %
NPI.PR.B FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2045-09-30
Maturity Price : 14.00
Evaluated at bid price : 14.00
Bid-YTW : 5.74 %

NPI.PR.B did not trade any shares today on any of the consolidated exchanges, so the quote of 14.00-50 should be taken with a grain of salt!

However:

pairs_FR_150930
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The NPI.PR.A / NPI.PR.B Strong Pair predicts an average three month bill rate of 0.28% over the next five years – well above the average for investment-grade pairs.