Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

BRF.PR.C : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that BRF.PR.C will reset At 4.351% effective August 1, 2019.

BRF.PR.C is a FixedReset, 4.40%+294, that commenced trading 2010-10-11 after being announced 2010-10-1. The issue has been tracked by HIMIPref™, but assigned to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g. BRF.PR.C and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190712
Click for Big

The market appears to have lost its fleeting interest in floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.66% and +0.95%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the BRF.PR.C FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for BRF.PR.C) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.50% 1.00% 0.50%
BRF.PR.C 16.51 294bp 16.59 16.12 15.65

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, BRF.PR.C. Therefore, I recommend that holders of BRF.PR.C continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Those who wish to convert are advised that the deadline for notifying the company of such a desire is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on July 16, 2019. Brokers and other intermediaries generally set their internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this date, so if you wish to convert there’s no time to waste! Note that brokers will, in general, try to execute the instruction on a ‘best efforts’ basis if received between the two deadlines, provided that the procrastinating shareholder grovels entertainingly enough.

Issue Comments

CM.PR.O : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that CM.PR.O will reset At 3.713% effective July 31, 2019.

CM.PR.O is a FixedReset, 3.90%+232, NVCC-compliant, that commenced trading 2014-6-11 after being announced 2014-6-2. The extension was announced 2019-6-12. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g. CM.PR.O and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190712
Click for Big

The market appears to have lost its fleeting interest in floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.66% and +0.95%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the CM.PR.O FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for CM.PR.O) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.50% 1.00% 0.50%
CM.PR.O 17.32 232bp 17.43 16.93 16.43

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, CM.PR.O. Therefore, I recommend that holders of CM.PR.O continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Those who wish to convert are advised that the deadline for notifying the company of such a desire is 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) on July 16, 2019. Brokers and other intermediaries generally set their internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this date, so if you wish to convert there’s no time to waste! Note that brokers will, in general, try to execute the instruction on a ‘best efforts’ basis if received between the two deadlines, provided that the procrastinating shareholder grovels entertainingly enough.

Issue Comments

TD.PF.B : Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that TD.PF.B will reset At 3.681% effective July 31, 2019.

TD.PF.B is a FixedReset 3.80%+227, NVCC-compliant, issue that commenced trading 2014-7-31 after being announced 2014-7-22. TD provided notice of extension on 2019-6-25. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g. TD.PF.B and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190712
Click for Big

The market appears to have lost its fleeting interest in floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.66% and +0.95%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the TD.PF.B FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for TD.PF.B) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.50% 1.00% 0.50%
TD.PF.B 18.03 227bp 18.12 17.62 17.11

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, TD.PF.B. Therefore, I recommend that holders of TD.PF.B continue to hold the issue and not to convert. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Those who wish to convert are advised that the deadline for notifying the company of such a desire is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on July 16, 2019. Brokers and other intermediaries generally set their internal deadlines a day or two in advance of this date, so if you wish to convert there’s no time to waste! Note that brokers will, in general, try to execute the instruction on a ‘best efforts’ basis if received between the two deadlines, provided that the procrastinating shareholder grovels entertainingly enough.

Issue Comments

TD.PF.B To Reset At 3.681%

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced (although not yet on their website):

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 3 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 3 Shares”) and Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 4 (NVCC) (the “Series 4 Shares”).

With respect to any Series 3 Shares that remain outstanding after July 31, 2019, holders of the Series 3 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly fixed non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the 5-year period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding July 31, 2024 will be 3.681%, being equal to the 5-Year Government of Canada bond yield determined as at July 2, 2019 plus 2.27%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 3 Shares.

With respect to any Series 4 Shares that may be issued on July 31, 2019, holders of the Series 4 Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days elapsed in such quarterly period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TD, subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the floating rate period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding October 31, 2019, will be 3.931%, being equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield determined as of July 2, 2019 plus 2.27%, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Series 4 Shares.

Beneficial owners of Series 3 Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right on or prior to the deadline for exercise, which is 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on July 16, 2019.

Inquiries should be directed to TD’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, AST Trust Company (Canada), at 1-800-387-0825 (or in Toronto 416-682-3860).

TD.PF.B is a FixedReset 3.80%+227, NVCC-compliant, issue that commenced trading 2014-7-31 after being announced 2014-7-22. TD provided notice of extension on 2019-6-25. The issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., TD.PF.B and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190702
Click for Big

The market has lost enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are generally well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.63% and +0.67%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the TD.PF.B FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for TD.PF.B) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%
TD.PF.B 17.75 227bp 17.34 16.83 16.33

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade well below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, TD.PF.B. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of TD.PF.B continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the July 16 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Issue Comments

BRF.PR.C To Reset at 4.351%

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. has announced:

that Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc. (“BRP Equity”) has determined the fixed dividend rate on its Class A Preference Shares, Series 3 (“Series 3 Shares”) (TSX: BRF.PR.C) for the five years commencing August 1, 2019 and ending July 31, 2024. If declared, the fixed quarterly dividends on the Series 3 Shares during that period will be paid at an annual rate of 4.351% ($0.2719375 per share per quarter).

Holders of Series 3 Shares have the right, at their option, exercisable not later than 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on July 16, 2019, to convert all or part of their Series 3 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Class A Preference Shares, Series 4 (the “Series 4 Shares”), effective July 31, 2019.

The quarterly floating rate dividends on the Series 4 Shares will be paid at an annual rate, calculated for each quarter, of 2.94% over the annual yield on three-month Government of Canada treasury bills. The actual quarterly dividend rate in respect of the August 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019 dividend period for the Series 4 Shares will be 1.15970% (4.601% on an annualized basis) and the dividend, if declared, for such dividend period will be $0.289925 per share, payable on October 31, 2019.

Holders of Series 3 Shares are not required to elect to convert all or any part of their Series 3 Shares into Series 4 Shares.

As provided in the share conditions of the Series 3 Shares, (i) if BRP Equity determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 3 Shares outstanding after July 31, 2019, all remaining Series 3 Shares will be automatically converted into Series 4 Shares on a one-for-one basis effective July 31, 2019; and (ii) if BRP Equity determines that there would be fewer than 1,000,000 Series 4 Shares outstanding after July 31, 2019, no Series 3 Shares will be permitted to be converted into Series 4 Shares. There are currently 10,000,000 Series 3 Shares outstanding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) has conditionally approved the listing of the Series 4 Shares effective upon conversion. Listing of the Series 4 Shares is subject to BRP Equity fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSX and, upon approval, the Series 4 Shares will be listed on the TSX under the trading symbol “BRF.PR.D”.

BRF.PR.C is a FixedReset, 4.40%+294, that commenced trading 2010-10-11 after being announced 2010-10-1. The issue has been tracked by HIMIPref™, but assigned to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BRF.PR.C and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190702
Click for Big

The market has lost enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are generally well below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.63% and +0.67%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the BRF.PR.C FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for BRF.PR.C) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%
BRF.PR.C 16.00 294bp 15.61 15.14 14.67

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade well below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, BRF.PR.C. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of BRF.PR.C continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the July 16 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Issue Comments

CM.PR.O To Reset at 3.713%

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced:

the dividend rates applicable to its Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 39 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 39 Shares”) and Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares Series 40 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 40 Shares”).

The fixed dividend rate applicable to the Series 39 Shares, should any remain outstanding after July 31, 2019, for the five-year period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding July 31, 2024 is 3.713%, payable quarterly as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC.

The floating dividend rate applicable to the Series 40 Shares, should any be issued, for the three-month period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding October 31, 2019 is 3.981%, payable quarterly as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC. CIBC has designated the Series 40 Shares as eligible to participate in the CIBC Shareholder Investment Plan.

Beneficial owners of Series 39 Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right during the conversion period, which runs from July 1, 2019 until 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) on July 16, 2019. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid.

CM.PR.O is a FixedReset, 3.90%+232, NVCC-compliant, that commenced trading 2014-6-11 after being announced 2014-6-2. The extension was announced 2019-6-12. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., CM.PR.O and the FloatingReset that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_fr_190628
Click for Big

Frankly, I am not sure how seriously to take the results charted above. FixedResets had a very strong day on June 28 which was emphatically not shared by their FloatingReset counterparts, where extant, and thus the calculated break-even point for the FloatingReset dividend rates (determined by the average bill rate until the next Exchange Date) has declined dramatically from the last calculation as of June 10. It is not yet clear, of course, whether this represents an actual change in market sentiment or whether this is an artifact of a few players’ day’s trading which will be quickly reversed. The following discussion will assume that this is representative of an actual change in sentiment, but please note that this conclusion is highly provisional!

The market has lost enthusiasm for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are below the current 3-month bill rate as the averages for investment-grade and junk issues are at +0.34% and +0.68%, respectively. Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

If we plug in the current bid price of the CM.PR.O FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for its soon-may-be-issued FloatingReset counterpart given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FloatingReset (received in exchange for CM.PR.O) Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 1.00% 0.50% 0.00%
CM.PR.O 17.17 232bp 16.78 16.28 15.78

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to trade well below the price of their FixedReset counterparts, CM.PR.O. Therefore, it seems likely that I will recommend that holders of CM.PR.O determine whether or not to convert based on their own portfolio considerations and forecast for policy rates continue to hold the issue and not to convert, but I will wait until it’s closer to the July 16 notification deadline before making a final pronouncement – particularly since, as noted above, the closing quotes for June 28 are highly suspect. I will note that once the FloatingResets commence trading (if, in fact, they do) it may be a good trade to swap one issue for the other in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – hopefully – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the path of policy rates over the next five years. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Issue Comments

AX.PR.G To Be Redeemed

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust has announced:

that it has delivered formal notice to the holder(s) of its Preferred Units, Series G (the “Series G Units”) that, on July 31, 2019, the REIT will redeem all of the 3,140,300 outstanding Series G Units at a price of $25.3125 (the “Redemption Price”) for each Series G Unit, being $25.00 plus $0.3125 in accrued and unpaid distributions thereon up to but excluding July 31, 2019.

The Redemption Price will be payable upon presentation and surrender of the Series G Units called for redemption at the corporate trust offices of AST Trust Company (Canada) at 1 Toronto Street, Suite 1200, Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2V6, Attention: Corporate Actions.

That was a nice surprise for holders of the issue, as AX.PR.G closed at 25.25, up $4.52 (+21.80%!) on volume of 234,839.

AX.PR.G is a FixedReset, 5.00%+313, that commenced trading 2013-7-29 after being announced 2013-7-18. Note that it is not strictly a “preferred share”, it is a trust unit, and that it pays interest and return of capital (see comments), not dividends. The issue has been tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.

A hint as to why they did this may be found in a June 3 press release:

Artis Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX: AX.UN) (“Artis” or the “REIT”) provided an update today on its normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) activity in May 2019.

During the month of May, Artis has acquired the following number of units through its NCIB:
• 1,590,993 trust units at a weighted-average price of $11.24;
• 6,800 Series A preferred units at a weighted-average price of $21.96;
• 9,800 Series E preferred units at a weighted-average price of $20.56; and
• 13,100 Series G units at a weighted-average price of $21.99.

From November 1, 2018, when the REIT announced its intention to purchase units through its NCIB, to May 31, 2019, Artis has bought back 12,650,364 trust units at a weighted-average price of $10.46, 51,900 Series A preferred units at a weighted-average price of $21.53, 59,600 Series E preferred units at a weighted-average price of $20.09, and 55,000 Series G preferred units at a weightedaverage price of $21.37.

As of the date hereof, there are 141,283,025 trust units, 3,400,200 Series A preferred units, 3,944,100 Series E preferred units, 3,150,300 Series G preferred units and 5,000,000 Series I preferred units outstanding.

The REIT has an automatic purchase plan in place which allows for the continuous purchase of units and preferred units under its NCIB, including during normal blackout periods.

Their 2018 Financial Report discloses:

The REIT’s weighted-average effective rate at December 31, 2018, on mortgages and other loans secured by properties, inclusive of properties held in joint ty5frgtenture arrangements, was 4.30%, compared to 3.96% at December 31, 2017. The weighted-average nominal interest rate on mortgages and other loans secured by properties, inclusive of properties held in joint venture arrangements, at December 31, 2018, was 4.09%, compared to 3.79% at December 31, 2017.

So in terms of cash, they’re not really saving too much by redeeming AX.PR.G at par, given that it would have reset to about 4.50%. But they’re saving a little bit, and 50bp was enough for RioCan to redeem REI.PR.A and later, REI.PR.C.

Still, holders of AX.PR.G have just been handed a windfall profit of over $14-million, which is about $0.10 per trust unit outstanding, which compares to a reported profit of $158-million in 2018. If I owned the trust units, I’d be ticked off. Why is there such an emphasis on big dramatic moves? What’s wrong with continuing to purchase on the open market at a $4 discount to par, given that the excess financing cost is only about $0.10 – $0.15 per annum? What’s the risk? If you get it wrong, you have another chance to redeem in five years – that’s the beauty of the FixedReset structure – at least, from the issuers’ perspective.

Sure, it’s slow. So what? Slow and steady wins the race!

Issue Comments

TD.PF.B To Be Extended

The Toronto-Dominion Bank has announced (on July 25 June 25, so they say, but it wasn’t on their website yesterday evening!):

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of the currently outstanding 20 million Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series 3 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 3 Shares”) of TD on July 31, 2019. As a result and subject to certain conditions set out in the prospectus supplement dated July 24, 2014 relating to the issuance of the Series 3 Shares, the holders of the Series 3 Shares have the right to convert all or part of their Series 3 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series 4 (NVCC) (the “Series 4 Shares”) of TD on July 31, 2019. Holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 3 Shares into Series 4 Shares on such date will continue to hold their Series 3 Shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the conditions that: (i) if TD determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series 4 Shares outstanding after taking into account all shares tendered for conversion on July 31, 2019, then holders of Series 3 Shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series 4 Shares, and (ii) alternatively, if TD determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series 3 Shares after taking into account all shares tendered for conversion on July 31, 2019, then all remaining Series 3 Shares will automatically be converted into Series 4 Shares on a one-for-one basis on July 31, 2019. In either case, TD will give written notice to that effect to holders of Series 3 Shares no later than July 24, 2019.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series 3 Shares for the 5-year period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding July 31, 2024, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series 4 Shares for the 3-month period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding October 31, 2019, will be determined and announced by way of a press release on July 2, 2019.

Beneficial owners of Series 3 Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right during the conversion period, which runs from July 2, 2019 until 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on July 16, 2019.

Inquiries should be directed to TD’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, AST Trust Company (Canada), at 1-800-387-0825 (or in Toronto 416-682-3860).

TD.PF.B is a FixedReset 3.80%+227, NVCC-compliant, issue that commenced trading 2014-7-31 after being announced 2014-7-22. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

I will have more to say when the reset rate is announced on July 2.

Issue Comments

CM.PR.O To Be Extended

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced (on June 12):

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of its currently outstanding 16,000,000 Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 39 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 39 Shares”) on July 31, 2019.

Subject to certain conditions set out in the prospectus supplement dated June 2, 2014 relating to the issuance of the Series 39 Shares, the holders of Series 39 Shares have the right to convert all or any of their Series 39 Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares Series 40 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) of CIBC (the “Series 40 Shares”) on July 31, 2019.

On such date, holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series 39 Shares into Series 40 Shares, will continue to hold their Series 39 Shares. The foregoing conversion rights are subject to the following:

  • if CIBC determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series 40 Shares, after having taken into account all Series 39 Shares tendered for conversion on July 31, 2019, then holders of Series 39 Shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series 40 Shares, and
  • alternatively, if CIBC determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series 39 Shares, after having taken into account all Series 39 Shares tendered for conversion on July 31, 2019, then all, but not part, of the remaining outstanding Series 39 Shares will automatically be converted into Series 40 Shares on a one-for-one basis on July 31, 2019.

In either case, CIBC will give written notice to that effect to the registered holder of Series 39 Shares no later than July 24, 2019.

The dividend rate applicable to the Series 39 Shares, should any remain outstanding after July 31, 2019, for the five-year period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding July 31, 2024 , and the dividend rate applicable to the Series 40 Shares, should any be issued, for the three-month period from and including July 31, 2019 to but excluding October 31, 2019, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, will be calculated and announced on June 28, 2019. CIBC has designated the Series 40 Shares as eligible to participate in the CIBC Shareholder Investment Plan.

Beneficial owners of Series 39 Shares who wish to excise their conversion right should instruct their broker or other nominee to exercise such right during the conversion period, which runs from July 1, 2019 until 5:00 p.m. (Eastern Daylight Time) on July 16, 2019. It is recommended that this be done well in advance of the deadline in order to provide the broker or other nominee time to complete the necessary steps. Any notices received after this deadline will not be valid.

CM.PR.O is a FixedReset, 3.90%+232, NVCC-compliant, that commenced trading 2014-6-11 after being announced 2014-6-2. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ and is assigned to the FixedReset (Discount) subindex.

I will have more to say when the reset rate is announced on June 28.

Issue Comments

EFN.PR.C : No Conversion to FloatingReset

Element Fleet Management has announced:

that none of its outstanding Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series C (the “Series C shares”) will be converted into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series D (the “Series D shares”) on June 30, 2019.

During the conversion notice period, which commenced on May 31, 2019 and ended at 5:00 p.m. (Toronto time) on June 17, 2019, 145,926 Series C shares were tendered for conversion into Series D shares. In accordance with Section 6.03(a)(iii) of the rights, privileges, restrictions and conditions attaching to the Series C shares, as provided in the Corporation’s restated articles of incorporation dated October 4, 2016, since there would be outstanding on June 30, 2019 less than 500,000 Series D shares, after having taken into account all Series C shares tendered for conversion into Series D shares, holders of Series C shares who elected to tender their shares for conversion will not have their Series C shares converted into Series D shares on June 30, 2019.

As a result, no Series D shares will be issued in connection with the current conversion privilege.

EFN.PR.C was announced 2014-2-26 as a FixedReset, 6.50%+481, but was not added to HIMIPref™ at that time as the company did not have a credit rating. The company received an initial rating from DBRS on 2015-9-24 and HIMIPref™ commenced tracking its four issues then outstanding shortly thereafter. The extension of the issue was announced 2019-5-22 and it was later announced that EFN.PR.C will reset At 6.210% effective June 30, 2019. I recommended against conversion. The issue continues to be tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps – FixedReset (Discount) subindex on credit concerns.