Category: Market Action

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Today we learned that the recent – ongoing – market collapse is all the Fed’s fault:

President Trump placed responsibility for recent stock market declines and this week’s General Motors plant closures and layoffs on the Federal Reserve during an interview Tuesday, shirking any personal responsibility for cracks in the economy and declaring that he is “not even a little bit happy” with his hand-selected central bank chairman.

In a wide-ranging and sometimes discordant 20-minute interview with The Washington Post, Trump complained at length about Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. “Jay” Powell, whom he nominated earlier this year. He argued that rising interest rates and other Fed policies were damaging the economy — as evidenced by GM’s announcement this week that it was laying off 15 percent of its workforce — though he insisted that he is not worried about a recession.

“I’m doing deals, and I’m not being accommodated by the Fed,” Trump said. “They’re making a mistake because I have a gut, and my gut tells me more sometimes than anybody else’s brain can ever tell me.”

Well, I said on October 29:

Trump trying to pick a fight with the Fed (I think this is probably because he wants some political cover in case a US slowdown does occur to a noticeable degree)

Not the most astute prediction I’ve ever made, but it’s nice to have a winner nevertheless! And, of course, Trump’s huffing and puffing with his version of crony capitalism:

U.S. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he was “very disappointed” that General Motors was closing plants in the United States and warned that the White House was “now looking at cutting all GM subsidies,” including for its electric cars program.

Trump unleashed on Twitter a day after GM announced it would shutter five plants and slash 14,000 jobs in North America, with many of the job cuts coming from the U.S.Midwest, where the president has promised a manufacturing rebirth.

Politicians are afraid to say it: highly paid manufacturing jobs will all disappear in the near future. Anything repetitive and finicky can be done better by a robot – it’s just a matter of time and money and not too much of those. But in the meantime, there are real people experiencing real pain, so they have to huff and puff.

But the market – according to the chatteratti – is so desperate for good news it will take anything!

The S&P 500 and Dow edged higher on Tuesday after White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said a meeting between President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart on Saturday was an opportunity to “turn the page” on a trade war.
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All three major U.S. indexes turned positive after spending much of the session in negative territory, after Kudlow’s comments days ahead of the high-stakes dinner between the two leaders after the G20 summit in Buenos Aires.

But Kudlow also said the White House has been disappointed so far in China’s response to trade issues with the United States. On Monday, Trump threatened to move ahead with additional tariffs on Chinese goods, due to take effect on Jan. 1.

But what a day it was!

TXPR touched a new 52-week low of 632.64 (1.02% down from yesterday‘s close) before closing at 640.91, up 0.28%. Volume was enormous at 4.21-million (shares in the underlying issues, I thing), easily the highest of the last thirty days.

CPD touched a new 52-week low of 12.63 (down 1.48% from yesterday’s close) before closing at 12.87, up 0.39%. Volume was the second-highest of the last thirty days (far ahead of yesterday’s), exceeded only by November 20.

ZPR touched a new 52-week low of 10.34 (down 1.43% from yesterday’s close) before closing at 10.52, up 0.29%. Volume was the third highest of the past thirty days, exceeded only by November 16 and October 29.

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Grim news from Government Motors didn’t help the mood:

General Motors said Monday that it planned to idle five factories in North America and cut more than 14,000 blue-collar and salaried jobs in a bid to trim costs.

The action follows similar job-cutting moves by Ford Motor in the face of slowing sales and a shift in consumer tastes, driven in part by low gasoline prices.

The five G.M. plants will halt production next year, resulting in the layoff of 3,300 production workers in the United States and about 3,000 in Canada. The company also aims to trim its salaried staff by 8,000.

Why do we subsidize them? Because they’re good jobs. Why are they good jobs? Because they’re subsidized.

TXPR closed at a new 52-week low of 639.14, down 0.94%. Volume was about average in the context of the last thirty days.

CPD touched a new 52-week low of 12.81 before closing at 12.82, down 1.08%. Volume was the second-highest of the last thirty days, exceeded only by November 20.

ZPR touched a new 52-week low of 10.47 before closing at 10.49, down 1.13%. Volume was high side in the context of the last thirty days, but not extraordinarily so. The high-volume days were at the end of October.

The Canadian jobs report was ho-hum:

The Canadian economy added 11,200 jobs in October on higher full-time hiring, and the unemployment rate dipped to 5.8 per cent, although wage growth was sluggish, Statistics Canada data indicated on Friday.
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Although full-time jobs rose by 33,900 compared to a loss of 22,600 part-time positions, the labour participation rate dropped to 65.2 per cent, its lowest since October, 1998.

And the average year-over-year wage growth of permanent employees – a figure closely watched by the Bank of Canada – fell to just 1.9 per cent, the lowest since the 1.7 per cent recorded in August 2017.

Meanwhile, in the States:

• ■ 250,000 jobs were added last month.
• ■ The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, a nearly 50-year low.
• ■ Average earnings rose by 0.2 percent and are up 3.1 percent over the past year.
• ■ The number of people working or looking for a job increased by 711,000, nudging the labor force participation rate up to 62.9 percent, from 62.7 percent in September.

But so much for the rally!

A steep decline in shares of Apple Inc. further weighed on sentiment in the U.S. stock market after the iPhone maker warned that sales during the crucial holiday quarter would likely miss expectations.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told CNBC that while President Donald Trump plans to meet China President Xi Jinping later this month, he has not asked U.S. officials to draw up a proposed trade plan, contradicting a report earlier in the day that had buoyed hopes of a trade dispute resolution.

That erased early gains in U.S. stocks and curtailed a rally in global markets that had lifted emerging market stocks by their largest daily gain since 2016.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 111.34 points, or 0.44 per cent, to 25,269.4, the S&P 500 lost 17.6 points, or 0.64 per cent, to 2,722.77 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 77.06 points, or 1.04 per cent, to 7,356.99.

Apple’s shares tumbled nearly 7 per cent, taking its market value below $1-trillion, after the company said sales for the final quarter would likely miss expectations.

In Toronto, Canada’s main stock index also erased early gains on Friday.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index unofficially closed down 0.2 per cent, or 30.87 points, at 15,119.28.

No cashiers here!

Think of it as the ultimate self check-out experience. Instead of waiting for someone to ring up your grocery items, customers can now simply pick out what they need, scan an app and walk out of the store.

Amazon started it first with its cashier-less Amazon Go store, but now Sam’s Club (owned by Walmart) is following suit with its Sam’s Club Now store, which will open in Dallas next month.

It’s a relatively simple concept that requires zero cashiers. Customers use the Sam’s Club Scan & Go app to add products to their receipt as they shop. When they’re done shopping, customers pay through the app with a single click and just walk out of the store. Instead of traditional checkout lines, there are 700 cameras to keep customers honest and monitor inventory.

Fortunately, Canadian retailers don’t have to worry about all this technology guff – we’ve got cheap labour! Productivity, schmoductivity!

There haven’t been too many good days this month, but we’re closing on a good note!

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The TXPR price index was up 1.69% today after six straight trading days of losses; it was only the sixth gain in the month and most of the other five were pretty skimpy!

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.80%, equivalent to 7.54% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield a little over 4.15%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 340bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) widening from the 335bp reported October 24.

The equity markets did well today:

Broad gains in the U.S. equity market boosted a measure of global stock markets on Tuesday after President Donald Trump said a “great deal” could be struck with China that would relieve fears of a growing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

MSCI’s gauge of stocks across the globe gained 1 per cent. Still, the index is down nearly 9 per cent for the month.
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Trump said during an interview with Fox News late on Monday that he thought there could be an agreement with China on trade. But he also said he had billions of dollars worth of new tariffs ready to be imposed if a deal was not possible.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 431.96 points, or 1.77 per cent, to 24,874.88, the S&P 500 gained 41.39 points, or 1.57 per cent, to 2,682.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 111.36 points, or 1.58 per cent, to 7,161.65.

The gains were broad in the U.S., with all 11 sectors of the benchmark S&P index up for the day. Trade-sensitive industrial shares rose 2 per cent.

Correlation is not causation and I’m pretty skeptical of the claim that suddenly kindled trade hopes were at the bottom of this. But then, I’m not a talking head with a desperate need to make everything sound clear and logical!

Somebody forgot to tell the preferred market about the wonderful news: TXPR was down 0.66%, touching a new 52-week low of 669.90 … it spend a good chunk of the day near that level, down 1.25% or so; volume, at 3.81-million (constituent) shares, was the second-highest for the month; CPD hit a new low of 13.37, with about $3.6-million worth being traded, the highest volume of the month by far; and ZPR hit a new 52-week low of 11.005 on its second-highest volume of the month, which was only a little more than half of yesterday’s volume.

I’ve been getting a few inquiries regarding what the hell is going on in the Canadian preferred share lately – here’s my best answer:

I ascribe the downturn to uncertainty.

Perpetual Discounts now yield 5.78%, equivalent to 7.51% interest at the standard conversion factor of 1.3x. Long-Term corporate bonds now yield a little over 4.10%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread is now about 340bp, an enormous widening from the 315bp reported on September 26 that has been achieved entirely through the increase in PerpetualDiscount yields – the long term corporate bond yield has not changed noticeably.

At the same time, we’re seeing comparable weakness in FixedResets, which really should stay relatively stable regardless of the overall level of interest rates , but which should be expected to continue to recover from the lows of 2014-16 with an increase in yields.

It is possible that this is being driven by funds like CPD – as units are created and destroyed, individual issues are bought and sold in lockstep, regardless of their characteristics – but I’m not sure that this is the case; and while this would explain the correlation between the two sub-classes, it wouldn’t explain why the units are being created and destroyed in the first place.

It seems to me that investors in both subsectors are fearing the worst, regardless of the fact that their worst fears are of opposite environments. I suggest that this may be due to uncertainties regarding the global economy; we’re seeing the IMF cut its growth forecasts due to trade concerns; Trump trying to pick a fight with the Fed (I think this is probably because he wants some political cover in case a US slowdown does occur to a noticeable degree); and, of course, the approaching US mid-term elections.

Due to the retail nature of preferred share investors, the sector is prone to episodes like this, in which the market behaves irrationally for a while until people take a deep breath and look at the comparable after-tax yields. I just wish there was some way of predicting the outbreak and duration of such events!

My second-best answer (because it’s rather dated, but is still generally applicable) is Shut Up and Clip Your Coupons! I mean, what else are you going to put your money into that will pay such a high rate of after-tax income while providing first-loss protection?

In the equity markets today:

All sectors on the TSX lost ground on Monday, led by cannabis-heavy health care which was down more than 10 per cent. Aphria Inc. closed down 17.35 per cent, Canopy Growth Corp. 14.12 per cent and Aurora Cannabis 16.10 per cent.

Since Canada legalized recreational marijuana use Oct. 17, pot stocks have lost up to about 45 per cent of their value.

The energy sector closed off more than three cent as the price of crude oil continued to fall as investors remained concerned about slowing global demand led by weakness in China
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In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 245.39 to 24,442.92. The S&P 500 index was off 17.44 points to 2,641.25, while the Nasdaq composite lost 116.92 points to 7,050.29.

U.S. markets sustained sharp losses late in the day on reports that Trump is planning new tariffs on all remaining imports from China if the two sides don’t make progress in trade talks next month.

As an aside, I don’t agree with Andrew Jackson (Adjunct Research Professor in the Institute of Political Economy at Carleton University, and senior policy adviser to the Broadbent Institute) very often – but sometimes he has things right:

Further, cuts to the corporate-tax rate are costly since most of the benefit goes to existing firms making profits from past investments, rather than to new firms or those thinking about expansion. A cut in the tax rate is also irrelevant to companies earning so-called rents or above-average profits compared to the international norm. For example, during the resource-boom companies would have invested in the oil sands even if the corporate-tax rate had been much higher, since expected profits were very high.

Canadian banks, utilities, airlines, railways, retailers and cultural industries among others all have to operate mainly in Canada to serve the Canadian market, so they are not very responsive to changes in tax rates compared to other countries.

If the politicians want to make Canada more competitive, they will break up the banks. Let them bank; don’t let them do much else. The enormous size of the heavily protected Canadian banking sector soaks up talent, soaks up capital, soaks up real-estate and soaks up political attention – for what? Second-rate (or, at best, plain vanilla) products made very cheaply as a consequence of scale and sold on the basis of the brand name. That not the basis of a competitive economy – that’s the basis of rentier economy, which is what we got.

I’ve rearranged my data collection routines in an effort that will eventually improve the attribution analysis I’ve been working on. Here are some spot results that some might find of interest:

Note that issues may be relegated to “Scraps” on either credit or volume concerns.

All of which is by way of introducing a snapshot of today’s preferred share market action:

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It looks like the situation at Fortress is unravelling:

Senior lenders have moved to seize control of 13 real estate development projects co-ordinated by Fortress Real Developments Inc. as the loans mature or fall into default.

A new report from FAAN Mortgage Administrators Inc., a court-appointed receiver that took control of Fortress’s affiliated mortgage brokerage firm, says 24 of the 45 syndicated mortgage loans it is overseeing have matured but the principal has not been repaid, while 13 projects are now facing enforcement actions from senior lenders who rank first on any prospective claim.

The Globe, in the apparent belief that if it ignores the Internet it will go away, did not supply hyperlinks to the source material, but the FAAN website contains many links, including one to the second report of the Trustee dated October 23, 2018. It makes pretty sad reading, f’rinstance:

90. In addition to projects facing enforcement actions by senior lenders, the Trustee faces challenges to recoveries on the syndicated mortgage loan made to 2309918 Ontario Inc. (“Eden Borrower”). The Eden Borrower is indebted to BDMC in respect of loans made for a real estate development project in King City, Ontario, consisting of approximately 28 residential homes (“Eden Project”). These homes have been sold and the senior loans have been discharged. The mortgages in favour of BDMC have not been discharged and, to date, no payments of the sums secured by BDMC’s mortgages have been repaid. The Investors are owed in excess of $7 million (including accrued interest) in respect of the Eden Project.

91. As late as June 2018, Fortress was advising participants who attend certain periodic update conference calls hosted by Fortress that the syndicated mortgage loan secured on the Eden Project would be repaid in full within a matter of months.

92. In early July, 2018, the Trustee was advised by PACE Developments Inc. (“PACE”), the developer on the Eden Project, on behalf of the Eden Borrower, that there would be no recovery to Investors on the Eden Project, notwithstanding the communications by Fortress of full payment expressed weeks earlier. PACE advised that certain cost overruns not previously accounted for had absorbed the over $7 million payable to Investors. In light of the very concerning representations made to the Trustee and others, the Trustee engaged with PACE to obtain the financial information related to the Eden Project to undertake a detailed review of the sources and uses of funds advanced throughout the Eden Project.

93. Since July, 2018, the Trustee faced increasing pressure from representatives of the Eden Borrower, PACE and CDCM to discharge BDMC’s security on all of the homes to permit buyers to own the properties free and clear of any pre-existing security.

94. The Eden Borrower and PACE continued to insist that the Trustee discharge BDMC’s security without repayment of any of the amounts owing. When the Trustee refused to do so, the Eden Borrower threatened to bring legal action against the Trustee and also appears to have advised certain of the homeowners to seek a remedy against the Trustee.

95. As a result, on September 12, 2018, the Trustee made demand against the Eden Borrower and PACE. In addition to demanding repayment of the full amount owed to Investors and 29 professional fees incurred to the date of the letter, the Trustee demanded additional documents to explain the significant change in the Eden Borrower’s financial position over such a short timeframe.

96. While PACE has responded to the Trustee’s requests for documents, the Trustee is continuing to investigate the cause of the significant change in forecast recoveries to the Investors while pursuing remedies against the Eden Borrower.

97. Since the issuance of the demand letter on September 12, 2018, the Trustee followed up in writing seeking advice as to when repayment would be made. As no response has been received, the Trustee delivered a demand letter and a 244 Notice on October 19, 2018.

Meanwhile, in the Canadian preferred share market:

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TXPR hit a new 52-week low of 688.16 and closed down 88bp; CPD touched a new 52-week low of 13.63 and closed down 115bp at 13.72 on very heavy volume of 571,500 shares (about 14 times yesterday’s volume and a little under 5 times the highest volume of the past thirty days); and ZPR set a new 52-week low of 11.36, closing at 11.36, down 130bp on the day on volume of almost 183,000 shares (about double yesterday’s volume and the highest of the past thirty days). All “new lows” are based on the price index, not the total return index, and therefore do not account for dividend receipts.