Category: Market Action

Market Action

February 8, 2016

There is speculation regarding negative US rates:

If the world’s biggest economy weakens enough that traditional policy measures don’t help, the Fed may consider pushing rates below zero, according to Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co.

That step would broaden the Fed’s toolkit beyond what was available during the financial crisis, when it slashed its overnight benchmark near zero and bought bonds to stimulate the economy. In 2012, New York Fed researchers said negative rates could prompt individuals to avoid depositing money in banks, potentially weakening the financial system.

“They’re still concerned, but not as much as they once were,” said Mark Cabana, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Bank of America. “They’ve seen how successful they were in other countries, where there haven’t been adverse impacts on market functioning.”

Traders may be getting on board with the possibility too. The implied probability of U.S. rates sinking below zero by the end of 2017 has jumped to roughly 13 percent, the highest since at least July, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The wagers are tied to the London interbank offered rate, which partly reflects expectations for Fed rates.

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And 10-Year JGBs are at zero:

The yield on Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bonds fell to zero for the first time, an unprecedented low for a Group-of-Seven economy, as global financial turmoil and the Bank of Japan’s adoption of negative interest rates drive demand for the notes.

The 10-year yield has tumbled from 0.22 percent before the BOJ surprised markets with the decision on Jan. 29 to introduce a minus 0.1 percent rate on some of the reserves financial institutions park at the central bank. It fell four basis points to zero percent as of 10:17 a.m. in Tokyo.

Japanese bonds are also climbing as sovereign securities rally worldwide. Global stocks have dropped almost 10 percent this year on concern growth is slowing in China, and as slumping oil prices undermine policy makers efforts to revive inflation. About 29 percent of the outstanding debt in the Bloomberg Global Sovereign Bond index was yielding less than zero as of 5 p.m. in New York on Monday. Swiss 3 percent notes due in 2018 were offering the lowest yield in the index, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Deutsche Bank might have trouble paying coupons on its CoCos:

Deutsche Bank AG may struggle to pay coupons on its riskiest bonds next year if operating results disappoint or litigation costs are higher than expected, according to analysts at CreditSights Inc.

Bonds and stock of Germany’s largest bank have plunged this year, with the shares shedding 39 percent of their value and its contingent convertible bonds — known as CoCos, or additional Tier 1 securities — turning in a similar performance. The cost of protecting the company’s subordinated debt from default for five years using credit-default swaps has more than doubled since the end of 2015, rising to 438 basis points, a four-year high, from 187.
…
The question for CoCo investors and holders of trust preferred securities is whether Deutsche Bank has sufficient “available distributable items,” a measure based on audited unconsolidated accounts calculated under German accounting principles, to make the payments, according to [CreditSights analyst Simon] Adamson. Given that there are reserves available to make up any shortfall that might prevent payouts, “we would be surprised” if Deutsche Bank didn’t pay coupons on its CoCos this year, which are determined by its 2015 performance, he said.

At the end of 2014, the latest figure available, Deutsche Bank had 2.87 billion euros ($3.2 billion) of ADIs, according to a presentation. The company also has 2.93 billion euros in a general reserve that could be used to top up ADI, as well as a 5.5 billion-euro “blocked amount” that was excluded from the ADI calculation and could probably be unblocked if necessary, according to CreditSights.

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UK authorities have done much to cement perception of regulators as Keystone Kops:

The first signs of trouble for prosecutors came about three weeks into the trial. Their witness was a government investigator called to lay out details of the probe into the alleged rigging of a key interest rate by a group of brokers who faced up to 20 years in prison.

But as the investigator went through a calendar his agency had compiled listing days the rates had allegedly been manipulated, his team admitted they had some of the dates wrong. Waving the schedule as he spoke, defense lawyer Philip Hackett asked if the prosecution was “making this up as they go along.”
….
The case against the brokers looked like a slam-dunk for [Serious Fraud Office chief prosecutor Mukul] Chawla. To begin with, [Tom] Hayes [now serving an 11-year sentence] had admitted conspiring with the six men to rig the rate to boost his trading profits. Reams of e-mail and instant-message evidence showed the defendants discussing the alleged crimes with Hayes. Two of the firms they worked for — ICAP and RP Martin — had already been fined $90 million by U.K. and U.S. regulators for failing to curb the brokers’ behavior.
…
But as Chawla laid out his case, even some of his own witnesses seemed to undermine it. In the second week, the prosecutor called John Ewan, a former director of the British Bankers’ Association, the trade body that officially oversaw Libor until 2013, in an effort to explain how the system was supposed to work when it wasn’t being rigged.

Instead of upstanding, Ewan came off as evasive. At one point, he claimed he had no idea the rate was being manipulated, despite written evidence that traders had told him.
…
The following week, Chawla called Paul Chadwick, the SFO investigator. It should have been a routine discussion on how the evidence was compiled, but descended into an argument when it emerged that the SFO had changed the dates it claimed rigging took place. The initial version had some defendants accused of manipulation on days when they’d been on vacation. Hackett, a defense counsel, would later denounce the SFO’s handling of the probe as an “utter shambles.”

However, the best line I’ve seem coming out of a courtroom in recent memory comes from one of the defendants:

Former Tullett Prebon broker Noel Cryan, for example, had exchanged dozens of instant messages with Hayes over a 10-month period in 2009 in which he pledged to help manipulate the rate.

Prosecutors argued the communications proved Cryan’s guilt. But he testified that it had all been a ruse. He’d never actually followed through on Hayes’s requests, he said, but only deceived him to allow his firm to pocket the more than 200,000 pounds commissions Hayes’s bank paid as rewards.

When Chawla asked Cryan how he justified lying to one of his best and longest-standing customers, Cryan cracked a wide smile. “It’s called broking Mr. Chawla,” he said.

Members of the jury rolled their eyes when defense counsel revealed that the SFO didn’t have any proof that Cryan had actually passed on Hayes’s requests to Tullett Prebon’s cash brokers to carry them out.

Meanwhile, Timothy Lane, Deputy Governor of the BoC, has implied he not only has a crystal ball but is much wiser than investor-scum:

Macroprudential tools can be used in two ways. One is to foster a more resilient financial system on an ongoing basis. To give just one example, regulators can establish ceilings on mortgage loan-to-value ratios on an ongoing basis, so that any correction in housing prices is less likely to create stress for the financial system. With a more resilient system, all of the financial stability concerns I have been discussing become more manageable.

Authorities could also, in principle, adjust macroprudential tools to dampen financial cycles—tightening them when leverage is building up and risk taking is increasing, and easing those requirements when that cycle turns. For example, regulators can lower loan-to-value ratios in response to indications of rising household sector vulnerabilities. Another example is the countercyclical capital buffer introduced as part of the Basel III reform of bank capital requirements.

Such countercyclical measures are designed, in part, to weaken the feedback loop between asset prices and credit growth that can lead to the kind of financial excesses that set the stage for a crisis. The track record of countercyclical measures in leaning against a financial cycle is not yet nearly sufficient to form a definite view of their practical effectiveness, however.

“Not yet nearly sufficient”? There’s complete negative evidence, more like. The Fed never saw the US housing bubble and has produced convincing evidence that there was no reason for them to see it.

Central bankers are about bright and wise enough to change policy rates when inflation changes and sometimes miss that boat completely as well. Once they are permitted to apply “macro-prudential tools” (the new euphemism for Soviet-style central planning) we’ll all be worse off.

There are some things I support that might be considered “macro-prudential”, but which fall far short of Mr. Lane’s winner-picking and crony-capitalism. I think, for instance, that given that 40% of Canadian bank assets are mortgages, compared to a 30% historical rate, it would be entirely proper to apply a surcharge to the risk weights of this asset class – as well as, potentially, other balloons. But I do not suggest this because I’m the smartest guy in the room and my uncle once dated the sister of a cabinet minister; I suggest this simply because it is a large change and it behooves us to behave with caution when things are changing. When things get significantly out of whack with historical averages, lean against them; but do not attempt to pick winners and over-ride the judgement of the guy on the ground who figures he can handle a 95% LTV mortgage; or the guy in the bank who figures he’s right. To do so is intellectual narcissism.

But on a bright note, there’s another currency-driven takeover:

Reno, Nevada-based Tahoe agreed to acquire Lake Shore on Monday in an all-stock deal valued at C$945 million ($678 million). From the perspective of Tahoe, which has mines in Latin America, the advantages are twofold, according to Barry Allan, a Toronto-based senior vice president at Mackie Research Capital Corp.

“It’s political diversification for these Tahoe shareholders,” Allan said by phone. “You’ve got stable Canada, thank you very much, an attractive currency. It’s just an insurance policy.”
…
In the deal, Lake Shore investors will get 0.1467 of a Tahoe share for every share they own, the companies said Monday in a statement. The ratio implies C$1.71 per Lake Shore common share, based on Tahoe’s closing on Friday, representing a premium of about 15 percent to Lake Shore’s closing price that day, the companies said.

It was a horrible day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 35bp, FixedResets losing 98bp and DeemedRetractibles down 56bp. The Performance Highlights table is lengthy. Volume was well below average.

For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.

Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread

Here’s TRP:

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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.60 to be $1.43 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.78 cheap at its bid price of 11.11.

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Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.65 to be 0.83 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 18.20 to be 0.95 cheap.

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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.15 to be $1.52 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.11 and appears to be $1.13 rich.

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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.03, looks $0.24 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.69 and is $0.51 cheap.

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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.84%, with three outliers below -1.50%. Note the x-axis has been shifted today. There are two junk outliers below -1.50% and one above +0.50%.

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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.26 %	6.39 %	17,413	16.20	1	0.7031 %	1,485.0
FixedFloater	7.60 %	6.64 %	25,967	15.62	1	-0.7937 %	2,615.9
Floater	4.71 %	4.87 %	75,285	15.70	4	-2.9035 %	1,628.0
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.0970 %	2,705.1
SplitShare	4.88 %	6.26 %	78,533	2.69	6	-0.0970 %	3,165.5
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.0970 %	2,469.9
Perpetual-Premium	5.87 %	5.85 %	82,389	13.95	6	-0.7292 %	2,515.4
Perpetual-Discount	5.76 %	5.81 %	97,861	14.17	33	-0.3513 %	2,508.2
FixedReset	5.52 %	4.84 %	217,721	14.78	83	-0.9831 %	1,838.7
Deemed-Retractible	5.27 %	5.81 %	128,170	6.92	34	-0.5625 %	2,563.3
FloatingReset	3.02 %	4.55 %	49,522	5.55	16	-0.4445 %	2,013.3

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
BMO.PR.Q	FixedReset	-6.42 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	-5.53 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 11.11 Evaluated at bid price : 11.11 Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	-4.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 8.35 %
BAM.PR.T	FixedReset	-4.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 13.65 Evaluated at bid price : 13.65 Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	-3.86 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 10.20 Evaluated at bid price : 10.20 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
MFC.PR.N	FixedReset	-3.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.65 Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
TRP.PR.D	FixedReset	-3.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 16.06 Evaluated at bid price : 16.06 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	-3.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.91 Bid-YTW : 8.15 %
BAM.PR.B	Floater	-3.37 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 9.76 Evaluated at bid price : 9.76 Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
PWF.PR.A	Floater	-3.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 10.81 Evaluated at bid price : 10.81 Bid-YTW : 4.37 %
TRP.PR.I	FloatingReset	-2.86 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 10.85 Evaluated at bid price : 10.85 Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
BNS.PR.D	FloatingReset	-2.83 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 7.77 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	-2.68 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 9.81 Evaluated at bid price : 9.81 Bid-YTW : 4.87 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	-2.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 15.69 Evaluated at bid price : 15.69 Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
BAM.PR.C	Floater	-2.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 9.75 Evaluated at bid price : 9.75 Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
GWO.PR.S	Deemed-Retractible	-2.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 6.22 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	-2.30 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 10.21 Evaluated at bid price : 10.21 Bid-YTW : 4.60 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	-2.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.85 Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
PWF.PR.Q	FloatingReset	-2.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 11.50 Evaluated at bid price : 11.50 Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	-2.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 14.76 Evaluated at bid price : 14.76 Bid-YTW : 6.64 %
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	-2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 16.70 Evaluated at bid price : 16.70 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	-2.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 20.70 Evaluated at bid price : 20.70 Bid-YTW : 3.73 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.94 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.21 Bid-YTW : 9.18 %
TD.PR.Y	FixedReset	-1.78 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.79 Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
MFC.PR.L	FixedReset	-1.76 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.79 Bid-YTW : 8.68 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	-1.74 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 18.08 Evaluated at bid price : 18.08 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	-1.72 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 19.46 Evaluated at bid price : 19.46 Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
MFC.PR.K	FixedReset	-1.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.12 Bid-YTW : 9.11 %
TD.PF.C	FixedReset	-1.66 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.16 Evaluated at bid price : 17.16 Bid-YTW : 4.35 %
BAM.PF.A	FixedReset	-1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.85 Evaluated at bid price : 17.85 Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
BAM.PR.X	FixedReset	-1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 12.30 Evaluated at bid price : 12.30 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
PWF.PR.O	Perpetual-Premium	-1.56 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 24.14 Evaluated at bid price : 24.66 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	-1.51 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 16.35 Evaluated at bid price : 16.35 Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
IGM.PR.B	Perpetual-Premium	-1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 24.62 Evaluated at bid price : 24.92 Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	-1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 15.76 Evaluated at bid price : 15.76 Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	-1.49 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.55 Bid-YTW : 10.05 %
SLF.PR.J	FloatingReset	-1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.58 Bid-YTW : 11.71 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	-1.34 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.63 Evaluated at bid price : 17.63 Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
RY.PR.J	FixedReset	-1.31 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 18.90 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
MFC.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	-1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.64 Bid-YTW : 7.32 %
POW.PR.D	Perpetual-Discount	-1.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 21.25 Evaluated at bid price : 21.52 Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	-1.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 8.50 Evaluated at bid price : 8.50 Bid-YTW : 6.70 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	-1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 16.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.00 Bid-YTW : 6.66 %
BNS.PR.L	Deemed-Retractible	-1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.15 Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	-1.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 11.76 Evaluated at bid price : 11.76 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	-1.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 18.58 Evaluated at bid price : 18.58 Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
PWF.PR.E	Perpetual-Discount	-1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 23.44 Bid-YTW : 5.90 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	-1.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 13.15 Evaluated at bid price : 13.15 Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
RY.PR.G	Deemed-Retractible	-1.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.11 Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	-1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 7.90 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	-1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 14.40 Evaluated at bid price : 14.40 Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.11 Evaluated at bid price : 17.11 Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	-1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.76 Bid-YTW : 4.12 %
TD.PF.B	FixedReset	-1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.27 Evaluated at bid price : 17.27 Bid-YTW : 4.32 %
BNS.PR.Q	FixedReset	-1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.51 Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	-1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 22.60 Evaluated at bid price : 23.61 Bid-YTW : 5.88 %
SLF.PR.G	FixedReset	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.00 Bid-YTW : 10.62 %
TD.PR.S	FixedReset	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.98 Bid-YTW : 3.44 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	147,180	Nesbitt sold 19,600 to CIBC at 25.50, then crossed 100,000 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 23.29 Evaluated at bid price : 25.46 Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BMO.PR.Q	FixedReset	80,983	GMP sold 71,900 to National at 18.55. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	54,570	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 23.13 Evaluated at bid price : 24.96 Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
TRP.PR.E	FixedReset	42,600	Nesbitt crossed 31,100 at 17.65. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BNS.PR.E	FixedReset	40,805	RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.55. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 23.30 Evaluated at bid price : 25.49 Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
MFC.PR.G	FixedReset	37,700	TD crossed 19,500 at 18.25. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.20 Bid-YTW : 7.93 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
BMO.PR.Q	FixedReset	Quote: 17.50 – 18.55 Spot Rate : 1.0500 Average : 0.6840 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 8.30 %
GWO.PR.S	Deemed-Retractible	Quote: 23.55 – 24.36 Spot Rate : 0.8100 Average : 0.4600 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 6.22 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	Quote: 10.20 – 10.94 Spot Rate : 0.7400 Average : 0.4421 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 10.20 Evaluated at bid price : 10.20 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
TRP.PR.D	FixedReset	Quote: 16.06 – 16.89 Spot Rate : 0.8300 Average : 0.5336 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 16.06 Evaluated at bid price : 16.06 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BAM.PR.T	FixedReset	Quote: 13.65 – 14.30 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.4236 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-08 Maturity Price : 13.65 Evaluated at bid price : 13.65 Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	Quote: 17.45 – 18.15 Spot Rate : 0.7000 Average : 0.4835 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 8.35 %

Market Action

February 5, 2016

Jobs, jobs, … well, a few jobs, anyway:

Job growth settled into a more sustainable pace in January and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost eight-year low of 4.9 percent, signs of a resilient labor market that’s causing wage growth to stir.

The 151,000 advance in payrolls, while less than forecast, largely reflected payback for a seasonal hiring pickup in the final two months of 2015, Labor Department figures showed Friday. The jobless rate fell to the lowest level since February 2008. Hourly earnings rose more than estimated after climbing in the year to December by the most since July 2009.
…
Friday’s data showed a much-awaited pickup in wage growth is starting to manifest itself. Average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent from a month earlier to $25.39. The year-over-year increase of 2.5 percent followed a 2.7 percent jump in the 12 months ended in December, which was the biggest advance since mid-2009.

All in all, the report was somewhat hawkish for the Fed:

Most obviously, the jobless rate dropped in January to 4.9 percent, matching the Fed’s median forecast for the long-run sustainable level of unemployment — or “full employment” — and continuing the most impressive trend in U.S. economic data.

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Perhaps even more encouraging was the move in the labor force participation rate. The share of the working-age population that was either employed or looking for a job ticked up to 62.7 percent in January from 62.6 percent the month before. From a year earlier, some 1.31 million people have entered the labor force.

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Average hourly earnings rose by a more-than-expected 2.5 percent in January from the year before. Wages for the year through December were revised upward to 2.7 percent, the highest level since July 2009.

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Meanwhile, back in the frozen North:

Over all, Canada shed 5,700 jobs in January, pushing the jobless rate up by 0.1 percentage point and missing analyst expectations as energy-related declines offset a spurt in public sector employment.
…
Ontario was the only province to see job expansion, with 20,000 new positions created last month, according to Statscan. Most of the increases were in trade, education, and accommodation and food services.

But we can hope for higher unemployment amongst stock brokers!

Banks are watching wealthy clients flirt with robo-advisers, and that’s one reason the lenders are racing to release their own versions of the automated investing technology this year, according to a consultant.

Millennials and small investors aren’t the only ones using robo-advisers, a group that includes pioneers Wealthfront Inc. and Betterment LLC and services provided by mutual-fund giants, said Kendra Thompson, an Accenture Plc managing director. At Charles Schwab Corp., about 15 percent of those in automated portfolios have at least $1 million at the company.

“It’s real money moving,” Thompson said in an interview. “You’re seeing experimentation from people with much larger portfolios, where they’re taking a portion of their money and putting them in these offerings to try them out.”

… despite the best efforts of their future colleagues:

OSC Notice 33-745 also provided some commentary on what would be expected of a registered advising representative (AR) in the context of an online advisory business:

“The online advice model that we have considered acceptable involves an interactive website used to collect KYC information, which will be reviewed by a registered AR. The AR will communicate with the client by telephone, video link, email or internet chats. The AR must ensure that sufficient KYC information has been gathered to support the PM firm’s obligation to make suitability determinations for the client.

Each of the firms that we have registered to provide online advice operates on a discretionary managed account basis, using portfolios of unleveraged exchange traded funds (ETFs) or low cost mutual funds. In most cases, these are model portfolios which are selected for a client based on a profile generated by the KYC collection process. An AR will review and approve the suitability of the portfolio for the client. The client’s account is periodically rebalanced to the parameters set for their portfolio.

This is not the so-called “robo-advice” model seen in the United States, where online advice has seen rapid growth in the last few years. The online advisers operating in Ontario are offering hybrid services that utilize an online platform for the efficiencies it offers, while ARs remain actively involved in decision making.”

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 62bp, FixedResets up 54bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 8bp. The Performance Highlights table is lengthy. Volume was well below average.

Here’s TRP:

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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.43 to be $1.04 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.76 cheap at its bid price of 18.30.

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Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 18.30 to be 1.21 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 18.20 to be 1.23 cheap.

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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.30 to be $1.65 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.30 and appears to be $1.05 rich.

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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.15, looks $0.22 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 16.10 and is $0.24 cheap.

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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.92%, with two outliers above 0.00%. There are four junk outliers above 0.00%.

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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.29 %	6.43 %	17,535	16.15	1	0.0000 %	1,474.7
FixedFloater	7.54 %	6.59 %	26,260	15.69	1	0.0000 %	2,636.9
Floater	4.57 %	4.73 %	76,154	15.97	4	0.5841 %	1,676.7
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1458 %	2,707.8
SplitShare	4.88 %	6.35 %	81,687	2.70	6	0.1458 %	3,168.6
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1458 %	2,472.3
Perpetual-Premium	5.83 %	5.52 %	82,594	2.51	6	0.1461 %	2,533.9
Perpetual-Discount	5.74 %	5.77 %	98,625	14.25	33	0.2292 %	2,517.0
FixedReset	5.46 %	4.80 %	221,263	14.54	83	0.0119 %	1,856.9
Deemed-Retractible	5.24 %	5.56 %	130,758	5.22	34	0.0540 %	2,577.8
FloatingReset	3.04 %	4.65 %	50,430	5.56	16	0.1946 %	2,022.2

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
TRP.PR.I	FloatingReset	-3.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 11.17 Evaluated at bid price : 11.17 Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BAM.PF.G	FixedReset	-2.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 18.10 Evaluated at bid price : 18.10 Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	-2.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 18.40 Evaluated at bid price : 18.40 Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	-2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 8.61 Evaluated at bid price : 8.61 Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	-2.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	-2.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
TRP.PR.H	FloatingReset	-1.93 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 9.17 Evaluated at bid price : 9.17 Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
BAM.PF.A	FixedReset	-1.68 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 18.15 Evaluated at bid price : 18.15 Bid-YTW : 5.19 %
BMO.PR.Z	Perpetual-Discount	-1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 22.41 Evaluated at bid price : 22.73 Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	-1.35 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 16.77 Evaluated at bid price : 16.77 Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	-1.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 17.87 Evaluated at bid price : 17.87 Bid-YTW : 5.34 %
SLF.PR.G	FixedReset	-1.00 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.87 Bid-YTW : 10.85 %
BAM.PR.B	Floater	1.00 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 10.10 Evaluated at bid price : 10.10 Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
MFC.PR.L	FixedReset	1.00 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.09 Bid-YTW : 8.54 %
W.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 22.70 Evaluated at bid price : 22.99 Bid-YTW : 6.04 %
ELF.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 22.10 Evaluated at bid price : 22.32 Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	1.07 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 19.77 Evaluated at bid price : 19.77 Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 15.07 Evaluated at bid price : 15.07 Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	1.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.05 Bid-YTW : 7.05 %
PWF.PR.K	Perpetual-Discount	1.26 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 21.37 Evaluated at bid price : 21.64 Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
RY.PR.J	FixedReset	1.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 19.15 Evaluated at bid price : 19.15 Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
MFC.PR.F	FixedReset	1.33 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.18 Bid-YTW : 11.63 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.35 Bid-YTW : 6.70 %
W.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	1.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 22.93 Evaluated at bid price : 23.20 Bid-YTW : 6.09 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	1.52 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 16.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.00 Bid-YTW : 6.86 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 10.45 Evaluated at bid price : 10.45 Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	1.68 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 21.13 Evaluated at bid price : 21.13 Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	1.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 16.20 Evaluated at bid price : 16.20 Bid-YTW : 6.76 %
W.PR.K	FixedReset	1.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 22.89 Evaluated at bid price : 24.25 Bid-YTW : 5.42 %
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	1.99 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.25 Bid-YTW : 11.94 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	2.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 10.25 Evaluated at bid price : 10.25 Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BNS.PR.F	FloatingReset	2.76 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.26 Bid-YTW : 7.48 %
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	3.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 11.76 Evaluated at bid price : 11.76 Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
BAM.PR.T	FixedReset	83,306	TD crossed 80,000 at 14.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 14.25 Evaluated at bid price : 14.25 Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	66,528	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
RY.PR.H	FixedReset	65,145	Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 17.58. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 17.50 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	54,500	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.48 Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	52,368	Desjardins crossed 50,000 at 18.15. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.20 Bid-YTW : 7.88 %
TRP.PR.G	FixedReset	45,354	Desjardins bought 20,700 from National at 18.25. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 18.30 Evaluated at bid price : 18.30 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
There were 22 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	Quote: 15.07 – 18.50 Spot Rate : 3.4300 Average : 1.8786 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 15.07 Evaluated at bid price : 15.07 Bid-YTW : 6.72 %
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	Quote: 11.25 – 13.50 Spot Rate : 2.2500 Average : 1.5421 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.25 Bid-YTW : 11.94 %
SLF.PR.J	FloatingReset	Quote: 11.74 – 12.55 Spot Rate : 0.8100 Average : 0.5388 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.74 Bid-YTW : 11.55 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	Quote: 17.00 – 17.50 Spot Rate : 0.5000 Average : 0.3251 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 17.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	Quote: 18.80 – 19.39 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4292 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-05 Maturity Price : 18.80 Evaluated at bid price : 18.80 Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
TD.PR.Z	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.85 – 22.45 Spot Rate : 0.6000 Average : 0.4393 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.85 Bid-YTW : 4.49 %

Market Action

February 4, 2016

There are mutterings about increasing foreign holdings of Canada bonds:

The Canadian fixed-income market is exposed to foreign investors like never before, said Warren Lovely, head of public-sector research at National Bank. And with Canada’s once-superior economic stature having slouched under the weight of the commodity shock, the appeal of Canadian bonds to global investors could fade, he said.

“If not a full-blown systemic risk, Canada’s leverage to foreign portfolio investors is a notable vulnerability for the country’s capital markets and debt issuers,” he said.

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Morgan Stanley has prepared some interesting charts on global monetary policy:

The Bank of England voted unanimously not to raise interest rates Thursday, as the sole dissenter on the Monetary Policy Committee abandoned his recent calls to tighten policy. The European Commission also slashed its inflation forecasts, all but guaranteeing more quantitative easing when the European Central Bank next meets in March. Now, given the world’s deteriorating economic backdrop, that December rate increase from the Federal Reserve looks increasingly anachronistic.

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S&P published a review article titled Negative Interest Rates: Why Central Banks Can Defy “Time Preference”. It’s mainly about the BoJ move to negative policy rates, but concluded:

Since the Global Financial Crisis erupted in 2008 and triggered the Great Recession and ushered in a period of secular macro deleveraging, the major central banks of the world have progressively implemented all manner of “unconventional” monetary policy measures. There are now five major central banks implementing some form of negative interest rate policy. Two of those central banks are also implementing full-fledged QE. The Federal Reserve has made one interest rate hike, but it continues to have a balance sheet with a stock of QE on it to the tune of more than $3 trillion. Similarly the Bank of England, while not having raised interest rates yet, maintains a much enlarged balance sheet, thanks to its earlier five rounds of QE. Several major central banks have experimented with various forms of forward guidance too.

When future historians look back on this period, they will likely describe a world in which the major central banks all experimented with new forms of monetary policy easing and learned from one another in the process, as one central bank after another pioneered new policy innovations and others adopted and adapted them, some rapidly, others with long lags. Disentangling cause and effect in the process of cross-fertilization and adaptation will be no simple feat.

There is nothing new in this of course: The 20 years or so preceding the financial crisis were ones in which similar cross-fertilization of ideas and practice occurred, as what become known as “flexible inflation targeting” became the orthodoxy of central banking, before it was confronted by the ghost of Hyman Minsky (14).

It is my compelling sense that this process of cross-pollination of policy learning and institutional evolution is far from over. The journey into uncharted monetary waters continues.

Here’s TRP:

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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.46 to be $1.14 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.86 cheap at its bid price of 18.21.

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Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 18.35 to be 1.36 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 18.15 to be 1.20 cheap.

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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.30 to be $1.88 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.66 and appears to be $1.17 rich.

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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.24, looks $0.23 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 16.15 and is $0.27 cheap.

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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.98%, with two outliers above 0.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00%.

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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.29 %	6.43 %	17,743	16.16	1	0.0000 %	1,474.7
FixedFloater	7.54 %	6.59 %	27,398	15.69	1	0.8000 %	2,636.9
Floater	4.60 %	4.74 %	73,652	15.95	4	1.0079 %	1,667.0
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1181 %	2,703.8
SplitShare	4.88 %	6.33 %	80,663	2.70	6	0.1181 %	3,164.0
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1181 %	2,468.7
Perpetual-Premium	5.83 %	5.83 %	81,018	13.99	6	0.3798 %	2,530.2
Perpetual-Discount	5.76 %	5.80 %	99,183	14.18	33	0.6211 %	2,511.3
FixedReset	5.46 %	4.86 %	225,799	14.39	83	0.5445 %	1,856.7
Deemed-Retractible	5.24 %	5.75 %	131,429	6.94	34	0.0779 %	2,576.4
FloatingReset	3.04 %	4.54 %	52,268	5.56	16	0.3644 %	2,018.3

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	-2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 10.04 Evaluated at bid price : 10.04 Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.72 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 10.29 Evaluated at bid price : 10.29 Bid-YTW : 4.97 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.56 Evaluated at bid price : 19.56 Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 14.90 Evaluated at bid price : 14.90 Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
BNS.PR.D	FloatingReset	-1.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.01 Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	-1.30 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 15.90 Evaluated at bid price : 15.90 Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
BNS.PR.F	FloatingReset	-1.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.77 Bid-YTW : 7.98 %
MFC.PR.F	FixedReset	-1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.02 Bid-YTW : 11.81 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	-1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 20.78 Evaluated at bid price : 20.78 Bid-YTW : 3.89 %
W.PR.K	FixedReset	-1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.69 Evaluated at bid price : 23.80 Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
BAM.PF.C	Perpetual-Discount	1.02 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.72 Evaluated at bid price : 19.72 Bid-YTW : 6.24 %
RY.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.35 Evaluated at bid price : 22.65 Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BNS.PR.P	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.26 Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	1.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 18.10 Evaluated at bid price : 18.10 Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	1.08 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.71 Evaluated at bid price : 19.71 Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
BMO.PR.Z	Perpetual-Discount	1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.73 Evaluated at bid price : 23.10 Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
BMO.PR.W	FixedReset	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.22 Evaluated at bid price : 17.22 Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
CU.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.68 Evaluated at bid price : 19.68 Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
CM.PR.O	FixedReset	1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.80 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
BAM.PF.A	FixedReset	1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 18.46 Evaluated at bid price : 18.46 Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 10.52 Evaluated at bid price : 10.52 Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
BAM.PR.C	Floater	1.22 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 9.96 Evaluated at bid price : 9.96 Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
BNS.PR.A	FloatingReset	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.80 Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	1.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.70 Evaluated at bid price : 23.81 Bid-YTW : 5.82 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 18.70 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	1.49 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
CM.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.03 Evaluated at bid price : 19.03 Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
BAM.PF.D	Perpetual-Discount	1.68 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.99 Evaluated at bid price : 19.99 Bid-YTW : 6.22 %
BAM.PR.M	Perpetual-Discount	1.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.52 Evaluated at bid price : 19.52 Bid-YTW : 6.17 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	1.80 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.81 Bid-YTW : 7.22 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 10.08 Evaluated at bid price : 10.08 Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 14.55 Evaluated at bid price : 14.55 Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
BAM.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.58 Evaluated at bid price : 19.58 Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	1.84 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.22 Bid-YTW : 7.87 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	1.93 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.51 Bid-YTW : 7.84 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	1.97 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 16.56 Evaluated at bid price : 16.56 Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	1.97 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 8.79 Evaluated at bid price : 8.79 Bid-YTW : 6.97 %
W.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	2.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.62 Evaluated at bid price : 22.87 Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	2.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.64 %
MFC.PR.G	FixedReset	2.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.15 Bid-YTW : 8.15 %
GWO.PR.N	FixedReset	2.46 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.50 Bid-YTW : 11.10 %
W.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	2.61 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.50 Evaluated at bid price : 22.76 Bid-YTW : 6.10 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	3.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.66 Evaluated at bid price : 17.66 Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
BAM.PF.G	FixedReset	3.73 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 18.65 Evaluated at bid price : 18.65 Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	4.19 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 16.15 Evaluated at bid price : 16.15 Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	5.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.40 Evaluated at bid price : 17.40 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
TRP.PR.I	FloatingReset	9.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 11.52 Evaluated at bid price : 11.52 Bid-YTW : 4.35 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	372,600	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 23.14 Evaluated at bid price : 24.98 Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	127,910	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.52 Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
BNS.PR.Z	FixedReset	127,490	Desjardins crossed blocks of 40,000 and 29,100, both at 18.82. TD crossed 50,000 at 18.85. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.94 Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	117,729	RBC crossed two blocks of 25,000 each and one of 30,000, all at 25.63. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 23.32 Evaluated at bid price : 25.56 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
HSB.PR.D	Deemed-Retractible	101,940	Nesbitt crossed 99,700 at 24.90. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.85 Bid-YTW : 5.24 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	85,609	Scotia crossed blocks of 32,200 and 40,000, both at 16.30. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 16.56 Evaluated at bid price : 16.56 Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
There were 35 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	Quote: 18.80 – 20.00 Spot Rate : 1.2000 Average : 0.9477 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 18.80 Evaluated at bid price : 18.80 Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
W.PR.K	FixedReset	Quote: 23.80 – 24.49 Spot Rate : 0.6900 Average : 0.4580 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.69 Evaluated at bid price : 23.80 Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	Quote: 17.00 – 17.64 Spot Rate : 0.6400 Average : 0.4179 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 17.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.00 Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
W.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 22.87 – 23.40 Spot Rate : 0.5300 Average : 0.3652 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 22.62 Evaluated at bid price : 22.87 Bid-YTW : 6.18 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	Quote: 10.04 – 10.57 Spot Rate : 0.5300 Average : 0.3980 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 10.04 Evaluated at bid price : 10.04 Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
BAM.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 19.58 – 19.98 Spot Rate : 0.4000 Average : 0.2794 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-04 Maturity Price : 19.58 Evaluated at bid price : 19.58 Bid-YTW : 6.15 %

Market Action

February 3, 2016

I mentioned yesterday the thesis that depressed markets are due to SWFs cashing out (although whenever I read that acronym, my first thought is “Single White Female”. Blush, blush.) Charles Stein of Bloomberg adds a bit more colour to that idea:

Money managers are having trouble hanging on to money.

Franklin Resources Inc. said Wednesday that investors withdrew $20.6 billion in the fourth quarter, the latest asset manager to highlight the issue of redemptions. Affiliated Mangers Group Inc. said on Tuesday that it had outflows of $6.8 billion, while Waddell & Reed saw $5 billion in withdrawals, contributing to the biggest drop in its stock since the financial crisis of 2008.

Money managers are hurt by slumping stock markets worldwide, which have prompted investors to dump anything perceived as risky. The firms are getting squeezed by sovereign wealth funds in need of cash after oil prices plunged, and the shift by investors from active funds to cheaper ones that track indexes. The preference for passive products and exchange-traded funds has created winners, including Vanguard Group Inc. and BlackRock Inc.
…
Aberdeen Asset Managment Plc last month cited the cash needs of sovereign wealth funds as one of the reasons the firm experienced 9.1 billion pounds ($13.2 billion) of withdrawals in the fourth quarter. The wealth funds from oil-producing nations, which boosted their investments when energy prices were high, are taking money back to fill the budget shortfalls created by cheap oil.

“Sovereign wealth funds were set up for a rainy day and that rainy day has arrived,” Aberdeen CEO Martin Gilbert said on a conference call in January. Gilbert in November said that 2016 would be a tough one for the asset management business if oil remained at $45 to $50 a barrel. It sells today for about $30.

Phillips of Casey Quirk estimated that about 70 percent of net global flows in 2015 went into passive products, a business dominated by a small number of players. Vanguard, known for its low-cost index funds and exchange-traded funds, collected a record $236 billion in deposits last year, including more than $58 billion in the fourth quarter.

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But what the hell. Every day there’s an announcement of astonishing technological progress:

Scientists at the Max Planck Institute in Germany have successfully conducted a revolutionary nuclear fusion experiment. Using their experimental reactor, the Wendelstein 7-X (W7X) stellarator, they have managed to sustain a hydrogen plasma – a key step on the path to creating workable nuclear fusion. The German chancellor Angela Merkel, who herself has a doctorate in physics, switched on the device at 2:35 p.m. GMT (9:35 a.m. EST).

As a clean, near-limitless source of energy, it’s no understatement to say that controlled nuclear fusion (replicating the process that powers the Sun) would change the world, and several nations are striving to make breakthroughs in this field. Germany is undoubtedly the frontrunner in one respect: This is the second time that it’s successfully fired up its experimental fusion reactor.

So this is just one element in the thesis that technological progress has become so swift that disruptions in the market have become so frequent and fundamental that low growth – at least in the developed world – is virtually inevitable. Disruption is good in the long run, but bad in the short run … it took a long time for stenographers to re-train as administrative assistants, and a long time for companies to realize they needed them! It would be ideal if disruptions were maintained at a constant low level to allow for adjustment without broader-based recessions … but those darned engineers and scientists refuse to cooperate!

It was a good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 35bp, FixedResets winning 55bp and DeemedRetractibles up 40bp. The Performance Highlights table is lengthy. Volume was a little below average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.82%, equivalent to 7.57% interest at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates continue to yield 4.2%, so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 335bp, a significant decline from the 350bp reported January 27.

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.35 to be $1.15 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.82 cheap at its bid price of 18.10.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 18.20 to be 1.39 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.75 to be 1.31 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.35 to be $1.59 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 18.80 and appears to be $0.99 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.23, looks $0.49 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.50 and is $0.65 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.98%, with one outlier above 0.00%. There are three junk outliers above 0.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.29 %	6.43 %	18,511	16.16	1	0.0000 %	1,474.7
FixedFloater	7.60 %	6.64 %	28,586	15.63	1	0.8065 %	2,615.9
Floater	4.65 %	4.82 %	74,649	15.80	4	0.9179 %	1,650.3
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.0069 %	2,700.6
SplitShare	4.89 %	6.26 %	80,714	2.71	6	-0.0069 %	3,160.2
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.0069 %	2,465.7
Perpetual-Premium	5.86 %	5.83 %	81,596	14.00	6	0.1201 %	2,520.6
Perpetual-Discount	5.79 %	5.82 %	98,399	14.14	33	0.3534 %	2,495.8
FixedReset	5.49 %	4.89 %	226,762	14.48	83	0.5471 %	1,846.6
Deemed-Retractible	5.25 %	5.69 %	131,408	6.94	34	0.4027 %	2,574.4
FloatingReset	3.05 %	4.68 %	52,853	5.56	16	1.0284 %	2,011.0

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	-5.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 16.46 Evaluated at bid price : 16.46 Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PF.G	FixedReset	-2.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.98 Evaluated at bid price : 17.98 Bid-YTW : 5.31 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	-2.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 21.01 Evaluated at bid price : 21.01 Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
BAM.PR.T	FixedReset	-2.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 14.40 Evaluated at bid price : 14.40 Bid-YTW : 5.44 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.13 Evaluated at bid price : 17.13 Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	-1.59 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 15.50 Evaluated at bid price : 15.50 Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
BNS.PR.N	Deemed-Retractible	-1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2017-01-27 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.15 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BMO.PR.W	FixedReset	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.03 Evaluated at bid price : 17.03 Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 10.47 Evaluated at bid price : 10.47 Bid-YTW : 4.89 %
RY.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.35 Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
BMO.PR.Y	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 19.35 Evaluated at bid price : 19.35 Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 23.72 Evaluated at bid price : 24.06 Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
CM.PR.O	FixedReset	1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.90 Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
TD.PF.B	FixedReset	1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.39 Evaluated at bid price : 17.39 Bid-YTW : 4.49 %
SLF.PR.I	FixedReset	1.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 8.46 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.20 Evaluated at bid price : 17.20 Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
CU.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	1.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 22.35 Evaluated at bid price : 22.66 Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	1.20 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 11.79 Evaluated at bid price : 11.79 Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	1.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 16.75 Evaluated at bid price : 16.75 Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.35 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 14.29 Evaluated at bid price : 14.29 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	1.37 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.50 Bid-YTW : 7.94 %
NA.PR.S	FixedReset	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.56 Evaluated at bid price : 17.56 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
RY.PR.L	FixedReset	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.85 Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
SLF.PR.J	FloatingReset	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.66 Bid-YTW : 11.63 %
BIP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.41 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 18.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 6.07 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	1.41 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 8.62 Evaluated at bid price : 8.62 Bid-YTW : 7.11 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	1.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.26 Bid-YTW : 7.80 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	1.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 9.90 Evaluated at bid price : 9.90 Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	1.57 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.05 Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
BNS.PR.F	FloatingReset	1.58 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 7.74 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	1.63 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.82 Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
TD.PF.C	FixedReset	1.64 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.40 Evaluated at bid price : 17.40 Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
PWF.PR.S	Perpetual-Discount	1.69 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 21.05 Evaluated at bid price : 21.05 Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
BNS.PR.Z	FixedReset	1.72 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.16 %
TRP.PR.E	FixedReset	1.76 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.35 Evaluated at bid price : 17.35 Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
BNS.PR.L	Deemed-Retractible	1.79 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.48 Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
BAM.PR.B	Floater	1.85 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 9.91 Evaluated at bid price : 9.91 Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	1.88 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 18.45 Evaluated at bid price : 18.45 Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	1.88 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.89 Bid-YTW : 8.12 %
BNS.PR.C	FloatingReset	2.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.16 Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
MFC.PR.N	FixedReset	2.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.20 Bid-YTW : 7.78 %
FTS.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	2.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 21.95 Evaluated at bid price : 22.19 Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	2.70 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 11.40 Evaluated at bid price : 11.40 Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
SLF.PR.G	FixedReset	2.75 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.10 Bid-YTW : 10.60 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	2.79 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 15.85 Evaluated at bid price : 15.85 Bid-YTW : 6.92 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	2.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
CM.PR.P	FixedReset	3.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.21 Evaluated at bid price : 17.21 Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
FTS.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	3.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 21.55 Evaluated at bid price : 21.55 Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	3.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 16.11 Evaluated at bid price : 16.11 Bid-YTW : 6.80 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	4.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.68 Bid-YTW : 10.13 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	4.48 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 15.15 Evaluated at bid price : 15.15 Bid-YTW : 6.68 %
TRP.PR.I	FloatingReset	5.00 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 10.50 Evaluated at bid price : 10.50 Bid-YTW : 4.77 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	144,750	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 23.13 Evaluated at bid price : 24.97 Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	144,512	Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 59,000, both at 25.62. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 23.32 Evaluated at bid price : 25.59 Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
BNS.PR.E	FixedReset	111,649	RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.63. Scotia crossed blocks of 40,000 and 20,000, both at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 23.33 Evaluated at bid price : 25.58 Bid-YTW : 5.11 %
BMO.PR.W	FixedReset	59,769	Nesbitt crossed 25,100 at 17.00. Desjardins crossed 16,500 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.03 Evaluated at bid price : 17.03 Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	47,207	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.60 Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
BMO.PR.T	FixedReset	37,422	Scotia crossed 25,000 at 17.22. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 17.22 Evaluated at bid price : 17.22 Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	Quote: 16.46 – 17.43 Spot Rate : 0.9700 Average : 0.6121 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 16.46 Evaluated at bid price : 16.46 Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	Quote: 16.24 – 17.01 Spot Rate : 0.7700 Average : 0.4632 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 16.24 Evaluated at bid price : 16.24 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.82 – 22.83 Spot Rate : 1.0100 Average : 0.7406 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.82 Bid-YTW : 4.77 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	Quote: 15.50 – 16.11 Spot Rate : 0.6100 Average : 0.3914 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 15.50 Evaluated at bid price : 15.50 Bid-YTW : 4.88 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	Quote: 21.01 – 21.70 Spot Rate : 0.6900 Average : 0.4862 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 21.01 Evaluated at bid price : 21.01 Bid-YTW : 3.85 %
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 19.50 – 20.18 Spot Rate : 0.6800 Average : 0.4980 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-03 Maturity Price : 19.50 Evaluated at bid price : 19.50 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %

Market Action

February 2, 2016

There’s an interesting use of the psychology of dissent from Bridgewater hedge fund:

Along with modeling openness to criticism, [Bridgewater’s founder Ray] Dalio has fought groupthink by refusing to make decisions based on hierarchy. Rather than conducting a vote where the majority rules, or deferring to people with the most seniority or status, he strives to create an idea meritocracy where all perspectives are heard and the best argument wins.

To do that, most leaders assign a devil’s advocate. The hope is to get someone to challenge the majority’s opinion. But according to [Berkeley psychologist Charlan] Nemeth’s research and Bridgewater’s example, we’re doing it wrong.

When people are designated to dissent, they’re just playing a role. This causes two problems: They don’t argue forcefully or consistently enough for the minority viewpoint, and group members are less likely to take them seriously.

“Dissenting for the sake of dissenting is not useful. It is also not useful if it is ‘pretend dissent’ — for example, if role-played,” Nemeth explains. “It is not useful if motivated by considerations other than searching for the truth or the best solutions. But when it is authentic, it stimulates thought; it clarifies and it emboldens.”

The secret to success is sincerity, the old saying goes: Once you can fake that, you’ve got it made. In fact, it’s not easy to fake sincerity. For devil’s advocates to be maximally effective, they need to really believe in the position they’re representing — and the group needs to believe that they believe it, too.

Bond yields plummeted today:

The U.S. 10-year note yield fell one basis point as of 10:54 a.m. in Tokyo, after tumbling 10 basis points Tuesday, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2.25 percent security due in November 2025 rose 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face value, to 103 23/32. The last time the yield approached the record low was in January 2015 when it dropped to 1.64 percent.

Japan’s five-year yield declined to a record low of negative 0.12 percent.

Crude oil declined to a 12-year low in January, and the MSCI All Country World Index of shares has fallen more than 7 percent this year. The odds of the Fed following its December rate increase with another in 2016 are less than 50 percent, futures contracts indicate.

Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc.’s chief economist David Rosenberg has an interesting take on depressed markets:

Those who claim that “break-even” price levels on Middle East oil production are in single digits are only looking at covering direct production costs and are ignoring the fiscal break-even levels. As per the International Monetary Fund, the fiscal break-even oil price for Saudi Arabia is nearly $96 a barrel (hence the government seeing a 20-per-cent deficit-to-GDP ratio); $68 a barrel for the United Arab Emirates (deficit of 4 per cent of GDP); and $58 a barrel for Qatar (budget gap of 1.5 per cent of GDP).

According to estimates I have seen, as of the end of 2015, 56 per cent of the assets that sovereign wealth funds had amassed came from the oil and gas related projects and up to 10 per cent of the total money invested was in global markets.

What has happened is that many governments, especially in the Gulf region (as well as Africa and Asia), have been compelled to draw down these reserves to cover their gaping fiscal deficits.

I am seeing figures that reveal that the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (the kingdom’s investment arm) has withdrawn something in the order of $70-billion from external managers in just the past six months to meet its social spending requirements.

The Fed’s new stress test will doubtless cause some excited comment:

In its annual stress test for 2016, the Fed said it will assess the resilience of big banks to a number of possible situations, including one where the rate on the three-month U.S. Treasury bill stays below zero for a prolonged period.

“The severely adverse scenario is characterized by a severe global recession, accompanied by a period of heightened corporate financial stress and negative yields for short-term U.S. Treasury securities,” the central bank said in announcing the stress tests last week.

In that particular simulation, the unemployment rate doubles to 10 percent, the same level it reached in the aftermath of the last financial crisis.

Three-month bill rates have slipped slightly below zero several times in recent years, including in September after the Fed delayed rate liftoff amid global financial market turmoil, touching a low of minus 0.05 percent on Oct. 2.

But in the stress test, banks would have to handle three-month bill rates entering negative territory in the second quarter of 2016, and then falling to negative 0.5 percent and holding there through the first quarter of 2019.

And just so you don’t think I’ve forgotten about them, here’s some drone news:

Dutch police are working with a company called Guard From Above that claims to be “the first company in the world to use birds of prey to intercept hostile drones.”
…
COO and company co-founder Ben de Keijzer said that two of the most impressive characteristics of birds of prey are their speed and their power, both of which come in pretty handy when you’re knocking somebody’s Christmas toy – or a hostile attacker’s weapon – out the sky.

They are “the masters of the air,” he said, which would sound like marketing fluff speak if the video didn’t in fact show birds snapping up UAVs like so many plump chickens.

It’s an interesting idea – and the video embedded in the source is impressive – but surely it’s just a matter of time before an anti-drone drone is developed. I foresee the day when the Bad Guys send in fleets of bombers … the authorities deploy fleets of fighters to attack them … the Bad Guys deploy fighters to protect the bombers … it will be the Battle of Britain all over again!

And it was January all over again in the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 5bp, FixedResets losing 67bp and DeemedRetractibles down 11bp. The Performance Highlights table shows a lot of churn. Volume was very low.

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.05 to be $0.96 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.76 cheap at its bid price of 11.10.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.78 to be 1.13 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.75 to be 1.15 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.41 to be $1.75 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.46 and appears to be $0.99 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.16, looks $0.36 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.75 and is $0.45 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.06%, with two outliers below -2.00% and one above 0.00%. There are three junk outliers above 0.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.29 %	6.43 %	18,792	16.16	1	0.0782 %	1,474.7
FixedFloater	7.66 %	6.69 %	28,958	15.57	1	-1.5873 %	2,595.0
Floater	4.69 %	4.90 %	75,814	15.66	4	-0.7632 %	1,635.3
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.0069 %	2,700.8
SplitShare	4.89 %	6.30 %	81,252	2.71	6	0.0069 %	3,160.5
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.0069 %	2,465.9
Perpetual-Premium	5.86 %	5.86 %	82,558	14.00	6	0.1403 %	2,517.6
Perpetual-Discount	5.80 %	5.84 %	99,234	14.11	33	-0.0487 %	2,487.0
FixedReset	5.49 %	4.97 %	224,497	14.50	84	-0.6746 %	1,836.6
Deemed-Retractible	5.27 %	5.67 %	130,702	6.95	34	-0.1110 %	2,564.1
FloatingReset	3.13 %	4.82 %	56,797	5.56	15	-0.1057 %	1,990.5

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
FTS.PR.H	FixedReset	-4.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 12.60 Evaluated at bid price : 12.60 Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	-3.62 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 10.70 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	-3.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 8.04 %
MFC.PR.K	FixedReset	-3.08 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.03 Bid-YTW : 9.31 %
CM.PR.P	FixedReset	-2.79 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 16.70 Evaluated at bid price : 16.70 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	-2.76 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 10.20 Evaluated at bid price : 10.20 Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
IFC.PR.A	FixedReset	-2.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.14 Bid-YTW : 10.59 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	-2.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 9.75 Evaluated at bid price : 9.75 Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	-2.30 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 8.50 Evaluated at bid price : 8.50 Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	-2.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.03 Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
CM.PR.Q	FixedReset	-2.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.60 Evaluated at bid price : 18.60 Bid-YTW : 4.74 %
FTS.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	-2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 21.37 Evaluated at bid price : 21.64 Bid-YTW : 5.75 %
SLF.PR.G	FixedReset	-2.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.75 Bid-YTW : 10.97 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	-2.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 17.87 Evaluated at bid price : 17.87 Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
PWF.PR.P	FixedReset	-2.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 12.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.00 Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
TRP.PR.G	FixedReset	-2.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.26 Evaluated at bid price : 18.26 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
FTS.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	-2.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 20.89 Evaluated at bid price : 20.89 Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	-2.02 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 23.49 Evaluated at bid price : 23.81 Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	-1.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 14.10 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
BAM.PR.B	Floater	-1.62 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 9.73 Evaluated at bid price : 9.73 Bid-YTW : 4.91 %
BAM.PR.G	FixedFloater	-1.59 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.40 Bid-YTW : 6.69 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	-1.58 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.11 Evaluated at bid price : 18.11 Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	-1.52 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.80 Evaluated at bid price : 18.80 Bid-YTW : 5.03 %
BAM.PF.A	FixedReset	-1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.36 Evaluated at bid price : 18.36 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TD.PR.S	FixedReset	-1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.62 Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	-1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.64 Bid-YTW : 4.10 %
PWF.PR.S	Perpetual-Discount	-1.43 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 20.70 Evaluated at bid price : 20.70 Bid-YTW : 5.84 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	-1.42 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 18.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 5.30 %
BNS.PR.A	FloatingReset	-1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.44 Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	-1.35 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.56 Bid-YTW : 8.38 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	-1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.47 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
W.PR.K	FixedReset	-1.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 22.82 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
RY.PR.Z	FixedReset	-1.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 17.34 Evaluated at bid price : 17.34 Bid-YTW : 4.45 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	-1.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 16.30 Evaluated at bid price : 16.30 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.20 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.40 Bid-YTW : 9.21 %
RY.PR.H	FixedReset	-1.20 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 17.32 Evaluated at bid price : 17.32 Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
IAG.PR.A	Deemed-Retractible	-1.20 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.65 Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
MFC.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	-1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.61 Bid-YTW : 7.32 %
CM.PR.O	FixedReset	-1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 17.41 Evaluated at bid price : 17.41 Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	-1.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 13.41 Evaluated at bid price : 13.41 Bid-YTW : 5.71 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	-1.08 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 8.14 %
TD.PF.B	FixedReset	-1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 17.20 Evaluated at bid price : 17.20 Bid-YTW : 4.54 %
RY.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TRP.PR.H	FloatingReset	1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 9.30 Evaluated at bid price : 9.30 Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
BMO.PR.M	FixedReset	1.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.05 Bid-YTW : 3.48 %
TRP.PR.D	FixedReset	1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 16.50 Evaluated at bid price : 16.50 Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
PWF.PR.L	Perpetual-Discount	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 21.75 Evaluated at bid price : 22.00 Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
GWO.PR.P	Deemed-Retractible	1.35 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.10 Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
PWF.PR.A	Floater	1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 11.08 Evaluated at bid price : 11.08 Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	1.75 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 19.73 Evaluated at bid price : 19.73 Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	1.96 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 15.60 Evaluated at bid price : 15.60 Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	1.98 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 15.42 Evaluated at bid price : 15.42 Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	2.62 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 14.50 Evaluated at bid price : 14.50 Bid-YTW : 6.99 %
PWF.PR.Q	FloatingReset	4.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 11.75 Evaluated at bid price : 11.75 Bid-YTW : 4.39 %
TRP.PR.I	FloatingReset	11.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 10.00 Bid-YTW : 5.01 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	110,167	RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.60. Scotia crossed 25,000 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 23.31 Evaluated at bid price : 25.55 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PR.C	Floater	99,915	Scotia crossed 92,000 at 9.80. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 9.75 Evaluated at bid price : 9.75 Bid-YTW : 4.90 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	70,505	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 23.13 Evaluated at bid price : 24.95 Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
BNS.PR.E	FixedReset	68,429	RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.72. Desjardins crossed 18,500 at 25.59. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 23.34 Evaluated at bid price : 25.62 Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
SLF.PR.D	Deemed-Retractible	43,666	Scotia crossed 40,000 at 20.30. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.35 Bid-YTW : 7.42 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	38,311	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.61 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
There were 15 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.K	FixedReset	Quote: 16.03 – 16.59 Spot Rate : 0.5600 Average : 0.3572 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.03 Bid-YTW : 9.31 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.03 – 21.80 Spot Rate : 0.7700 Average : 0.5949 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.03 Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
BNS.PR.A	FloatingReset	Quote: 22.44 – 22.99 Spot Rate : 0.5500 Average : 0.3835 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.44 Bid-YTW : 4.38 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 23.81 – 24.40 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4313 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-02 Maturity Price : 23.49 Evaluated at bid price : 23.81 Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
BMO.PR.R	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.75 – 22.50 Spot Rate : 0.7500 Average : 0.5946 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.75 Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	Quote: 14.10 – 14.75 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.4946 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 10.70 %

Market Action

February 1, 2016

Nothing happened today. But January’s finished with – that’s enough good news for one day!

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 9bp, FixedResets up 41bp and DeemedRetractibles off 16bp. The Performance Highlights table is published (I’ve run out of things to say over the past year!). Volume was extremely low.

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.06 to be $0.87 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.80 cheap at its bid price of 11.15.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.79 to be 1.01 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.80 to be 1.18 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.56 to be $1.76 cheap. BAM.PF.F, resetting at +286bp on 2019-9-30 is bid at 19.09 and appears to be $0.87 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.M, with a spread of +248bp, and bid at 18.26, looks $0.36 expensive and resets 2019-12-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.75 and is $0.68 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.24%, with one outlier below -2.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.30 %	6.43 %	18,358	16.16	1	-0.0781 %	1,473.5
FixedFloater	7.54 %	6.59 %	27,452	15.71	1	0.0794 %	2,636.9
Floater	4.65 %	4.77 %	70,336	15.89	4	-0.1229 %	1,647.9
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1252 %	2,700.6
SplitShare	4.89 %	6.38 %	80,844	2.71	6	0.1252 %	3,160.2
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.1252 %	2,465.7
Perpetual-Premium	5.87 %	5.87 %	81,661	14.00	6	0.0334 %	2,514.1
Perpetual-Discount	5.79 %	5.85 %	100,080	14.09	33	0.0877 %	2,488.2
FixedReset	5.49 %	4.93 %	233,222	14.35	83	0.4073 %	1,849.1
Deemed-Retractible	5.26 %	5.61 %	132,652	5.23	34	-0.1624 %	2,566.9
FloatingReset	3.12 %	4.69 %	57,344	5.57	15	-1.1631 %	1,992.6

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	-2.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 8.70 Evaluated at bid price : 8.70 Bid-YTW : 7.04 %
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	-2.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.01 Bid-YTW : 12.22 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	-2.02 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 13.56 Evaluated at bid price : 13.56 Bid-YTW : 5.65 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	-1.96 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 10.49 Evaluated at bid price : 10.49 Bid-YTW : 4.59 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.39 Evaluated at bid price : 19.39 Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	-1.56 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 15.75 Evaluated at bid price : 15.75 Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
TRP.PR.D	FixedReset	-1.45 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 16.30 Evaluated at bid price : 16.30 Bid-YTW : 4.99 %
TRP.PR.E	FixedReset	-1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.06 Evaluated at bid price : 17.06 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.46 Evaluated at bid price : 17.46 Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
SLF.PR.E	Deemed-Retractible	-1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.60 Bid-YTW : 7.30 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	-1.20 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 11.57 Evaluated at bid price : 11.57 Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	-1.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 15.12 Evaluated at bid price : 15.12 Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
BAM.PF.D	Perpetual-Discount	-1.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.53 Evaluated at bid price : 19.53 Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
SLF.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	-1.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.58 Bid-YTW : 7.26 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 10.68 Evaluated at bid price : 10.68 Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.45 Bid-YTW : 7.98 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.00 Bid-YTW : 8.00 %
BMO.PR.M	FixedReset	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.77 Bid-YTW : 3.69 %
BNS.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.75 Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
MFC.PR.K	FixedReset	1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.54 Bid-YTW : 8.86 %
BMO.PR.Z	Perpetual-Discount	1.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 22.64 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 5.43 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 18.26 Evaluated at bid price : 18.26 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	1.48 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.95 Bid-YTW : 4.04 %
SLF.PR.I	FixedReset	1.53 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.26 Bid-YTW : 8.61 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	1.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.09 Evaluated at bid price : 19.09 Bid-YTW : 4.95 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	1.64 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.75 Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.51 Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
TRP.PR.H	FloatingReset	1.66 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 9.20 Evaluated at bid price : 9.20 Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
BNS.PR.A	FloatingReset	1.84 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.75 Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	1.84 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 9.03 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	1.91 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
GWO.PR.N	FixedReset	1.91 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.25 Bid-YTW : 11.37 %
MFC.PR.L	FixedReset	2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.95 Bid-YTW : 8.64 %
IFC.PR.A	FixedReset	2.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.51 Bid-YTW : 10.21 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 22.57 Evaluated at bid price : 23.55 Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
IAG.PR.A	Deemed-Retractible	2.30 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.90 Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
BNS.PR.P	FixedReset	2.42 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.15 Bid-YTW : 3.62 %
FTS.PR.H	FixedReset	2.72 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 13.20 Evaluated at bid price : 13.20 Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
PWF.PR.S	Perpetual-Discount	2.74 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 21.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.00 Bid-YTW : 5.76 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	3.19 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 8.19 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
TD.PF.B	FixedReset	118,733	Nesbitt crossed blocks of 40,000 and 70,000, both at 17.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.38 Evaluated at bid price : 17.38 Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	98,953	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 23.13 Evaluated at bid price : 24.96 Bid-YTW : 5.55 %
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	65,296	RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.75. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 23.34 Evaluated at bid price : 25.66 Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BNS.PR.E	FixedReset	48,206	RBC crossed 25,000 at 25.70. Desjardins crossed 10,000 at 25.72. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.70 Bid-YTW : 5.07 %
BMO.PR.W	FixedReset	37,655	Scotia crossed 25,300 at 16.86. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 16.91 Evaluated at bid price : 16.91 Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
BMO.PR.T	FixedReset	30,823	Desjardins crossed 20,000 at 17.16. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 4.56 %
There were 11 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	Quote: 11.01 – 12.50 Spot Rate : 1.4900 Average : 1.1889 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.01 Bid-YTW : 12.22 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.75 – 22.58 Spot Rate : 0.8300 Average : 0.5717 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.75 Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
GWO.PR.N	FixedReset	Quote: 12.25 – 12.90 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.4547 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.25 Bid-YTW : 11.37 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	Quote: 19.39 – 19.99 Spot Rate : 0.6000 Average : 0.4256 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 19.39 Evaluated at bid price : 19.39 Bid-YTW : 4.65 %
FTS.PR.K	FixedReset	Quote: 16.15 – 16.59 Spot Rate : 0.4400 Average : 0.2784 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-02-01 Maturity Price : 16.15 Evaluated at bid price : 16.15 Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	Quote: 17.80 – 18.31 Spot Rate : 0.5100 Average : 0.3650 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 8.19 %

Market Action

January 29, 2016

Today’s big news was the Bank of Japan moving the deposit rate to negative:

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is matching European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in pursuing negative interest rates, and even pulling ahead when it comes to driving longer-term bond yields lower.

The yen plunged more than 1 percent against the euro after Kuroda unexpectedly cut the rate on excess reserves held by financial institutions at the BOJ to minus 0.1 percent. Two-year Japanese government bond yields sank to minus 0.085 percent, closing the gap on German negative yields, while 10-year JGB yields of 0.09 percent are lower than similar-dated bunds. Kuroda said the central bank will cut the rate further if needed and that he expects to drive yields lower across the bond curve.
…
Kuroda said Friday that negative rates don’t replace quantitative easing, they simply add to the BOJ’s options. The central bank pushed back its time frame for reaching stable 2 percent inflation to around the six months starting in April 2017, the third postponement in less than a year. The bank now sees inflation rising 0.8 percent in the 12 months starting this April, down from a previous forecast of 1.4 percent.

European and Japanese policy makers have faced extra pressure to boost stimulus after the yen and euro outperformed major peers for most of this month amid demand for havens as tumbling crude oil prices and concerns China’s economy is slowing spurred a more than $6 trillion rout in global stock markets.

This had an immediate effect on US equities:

U.S. stocks joined an advance in global equities, while bonds rallied as the Bank of Japan’s unexpected monetary stimulus boosted confidence that central banks remain vigilant of slowing economic growth. The yen tumbled, while oil gained.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index extended gains throughout the day to post the biggest advance since Sept. 8, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose almost 400 points as Microsoft Corp. rallied on earnings. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes retreated, while Japanese yields fell to records after the BOJ adopted a negative interest rate. The yen weakened versus the U.S. dollar by the most in more than a year. Oil climbed for a fourth day.

… and further doubt was cast on the prospects for Fed hikes:

In the bond market’s view, the chance of a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase this year is practically a toss-up after the Bank of Japan’s surprise policy move.

Yields on sovereign debt fell worldwide after BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda introduced negative interest rates for some bank reserves to support the world’s third-biggest economy. Derivatives traders see less than a 60 percent shot that the Fed will raise its benchmark even once this year, let alone the four quarter-point increases that policy makers projected in December.

The move from Japan is another sign of slowing global economic growth, which triggered volatility across global markets to start the year. The European Central Bank has also signaled it may add stimulus. The divergence between U.S. monetary policy and the stances in Japan and the euro region risk strengthening the greenback by driving global investors to higher-yielding American assets. That could further damp inflation in the U.S., which hasn’t reached the Fed’s 2 percent target since 2012.

Click for Big

And the rise in oil helped out Canada’s market as well:

Canadian stocks climbed a fourth day, trimming a monthly drop that sent shares into a bear market earlier this year, as crude prices rose and data showed the resource-rich nation’s economy expanded for the first time in three months.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index rose 1.8 percent to 12,822.13 at 4 p.m. in Toronto. The index has rallied 8.3 percent since hitting a 2 1/2-year low on Jan. 20. While the benchmark equity gauge posted its first negative January since 2010, the late rally among energy producers has boosted the S&P/TSX’s performance to the best among developed markets this year.

Which is a good thing, because real estate is the only Canadian bright spot:

Softness in the economy has been concentrated in goods-producing sectors, which shrunk by 2.6 percent year-to-date through November. Given the carnage in commodities, the slump in construction tied to non-residential investment and mining and oil and gas extraction comes as no surprise.

Meanwhile, the services sector continues to chug along with real output up 1 percent. This suggests that the commodity collapse has yet to infect the broader economy. The bad news? The majority of that growth–53 percent–can be attributed to a single sub-sector, and one that many economists fear was cyclically overextended even before this stretch of out-performance.

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I seem to remember a similar figure being cited for the proportion of US growth attributable to housing in the 2000-2007 period, but can’t find a citation.

But we’ll close for today with a lecture on history modification:

Oxford University’s Oriel College has decided not to tear down its statue of the British colonialist Cecil Rhodes, because of the “overwhelming message” it received that the statue should stay. The true motive appears to have been money.

The college reportedly cut short its promised six-month “listening exercise,” after it became clear that even to continue a debate on the subject could cost as much as £100 million in donations from alumni. That would catch the attention of any educational institution.
…
Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong and the University’s Chancellor, had it right when he said earlier this month that students were free to speak out against whatever they wish — Rhodes, racism or the British Empire — but not to erase history. If that’s what they need, “they should think about being educated elsewhere”:

We have to listen to those who presume that they can re-write history within the confines of their own notion of what is politically, culturally and morally correct. We do have to listen, yes – but speaking for myself, I believe it would be intellectually pusillanimous to listen for too long without saying what we think, reaffirming the values that are at the heart of Karl Popper’s ‘Open Society’ and the generosity of spirit that animated the life of Nelson Mandela. One thing we should never tolerate is intolerance. We do not want to turn our university into a drab, bland, suburb of the soul where the diet is intellectual porridge.

It was a superb day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 108bp, FixedResets up 99bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 75bp. The lengthy Performance Highlights table shows two HSE issues at the top – even as HSE was put on Trend-Negative by DBRS. Volume was average.

But however pleasant the day might have been, it’s a big relief to have finished the month! The TXPR Total Return index is down about 10.40% on the month while TXPL is down about 14.73%. This is stunning. As discussed on January 15, the worst month recorded by the BMO-CM “50” since 1993 was November, 2008, at -10.7%, while October, 2008, will probably slip to third place with a mere 8.2% loss. It’s incredible.

Here’s TRP:

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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.30 to be $1.07 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.88 cheap at its bid price of 11.15.

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Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.65 to be 1.04 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.89 to be 0.92 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.84 to be $1.50 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.70 and appears to be $1.07 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 16.29, looks $0.32 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 16.00 and is $0.37 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -1.04%, with one outlier below -2.00% and one above 0.00%. There are two junk outliers above 0.00%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.29 %	6.43 %	19,060	16.17	1	0.0782 %	1,474.7
FixedFloater	7.55 %	6.59 %	27,928	15.71	1	1.5323 %	2,634.8
Floater	4.65 %	4.77 %	71,286	15.90	4	0.0984 %	1,649.9
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.4614 %	2,697.2
SplitShare	4.90 %	6.71 %	81,879	2.72	6	0.4614 %	3,156.3
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.4614 %	2,462.7
Perpetual-Premium	5.87 %	5.85 %	84,063	13.94	6	0.7474 %	2,513.2
Perpetual-Discount	5.80 %	5.86 %	101,817	14.09	33	1.0802 %	2,486.0
FixedReset	5.61 %	4.96 %	236,096	14.62	83	0.9863 %	1,841.6
Deemed-Retractible	5.25 %	5.68 %	133,217	6.96	34	0.7483 %	2,571.1
FloatingReset	2.98 %	4.61 %	57,808	5.57	13	-0.0089 %	2,016.1

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	-2.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.75 Bid-YTW : 7.67 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	-1.97 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.40 Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
PWF.PR.S	Perpetual-Discount	-1.49 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 20.44 Evaluated at bid price : 20.44 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
GWO.PR.N	FixedReset	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.02 Bid-YTW : 11.63 %
GWO.PR.I	Deemed-Retractible	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.92 Bid-YTW : 7.07 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 23.99 Evaluated at bid price : 24.35 Bid-YTW : 5.38 %
BAM.PR.M	Perpetual-Discount	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 19.25 Evaluated at bid price : 19.25 Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
BMO.PR.Z	Perpetual-Discount	1.07 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.39 Evaluated at bid price : 22.70 Bid-YTW : 5.50 %
ELF.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.01 Evaluated at bid price : 22.25 Bid-YTW : 6.00 %
GWO.PR.P	Deemed-Retractible	1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.89 Bid-YTW : 6.15 %
BMO.PR.T	FixedReset	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 17.10 Evaluated at bid price : 17.10 Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
GWO.PR.G	Deemed-Retractible	1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.08 Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
BNS.PR.M	Deemed-Retractible	1.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.32 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	1.21 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 11.71 Evaluated at bid price : 11.71 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
BAM.PF.D	Perpetual-Discount	1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 19.75 Evaluated at bid price : 19.75 Bid-YTW : 6.29 %
PWF.PR.K	Perpetual-Discount	1.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.38 Evaluated at bid price : 21.38 Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
MFC.PR.B	Deemed-Retractible	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.27 Bid-YTW : 7.03 %
RY.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	1.26 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.12 Evaluated at bid price : 22.46 Bid-YTW : 5.45 %
TD.PR.S	FixedReset	1.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.90 Bid-YTW : 3.60 %
NA.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.16 Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
MFC.PR.G	FixedReset	1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.89 Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
CU.PR.E	Perpetual-Discount	1.38 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.32 Evaluated at bid price : 21.32 Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
CM.PR.O	FixedReset	1.38 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 4.58 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.25 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
TD.PF.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.16 Evaluated at bid price : 22.51 Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
PVS.PR.B	SplitShare	1.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2019-01-10 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.83 Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
POW.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	1.43 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 23.71 Evaluated at bid price : 24.16 Bid-YTW : 5.83 %
CU.PR.D	Perpetual-Discount	1.43 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.27 Evaluated at bid price : 21.27 Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
RY.PR.A	Deemed-Retractible	1.43 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.09 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
RY.PR.O	Perpetual-Discount	1.45 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.08 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 5.46 %
RY.PR.G	Deemed-Retractible	1.47 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.17 Bid-YTW : 5.12 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.48 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 14.40 Evaluated at bid price : 14.40 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
IFC.PR.A	FixedReset	1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.21 Bid-YTW : 10.53 %
GWO.PR.H	Deemed-Retractible	1.53 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.89 Bid-YTW : 6.82 %
BAM.PR.G	FixedFloater	1.53 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.59 Bid-YTW : 6.59 %
ELF.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	1.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.65 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	1.66 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.54 Bid-YTW : 7.43 %
TRP.PR.G	FixedReset	1.70 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.50 Evaluated at bid price : 18.50 Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	1.73 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 10.57 Evaluated at bid price : 10.57 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
POW.PR.B	Perpetual-Discount	1.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.69 Evaluated at bid price : 22.98 Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
RY.PR.W	Perpetual-Discount	1.78 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.66 Evaluated at bid price : 22.90 Bid-YTW : 5.35 %
BAM.PR.X	FixedReset	1.79 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 12.53 Evaluated at bid price : 12.53 Bid-YTW : 5.41 %
CU.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.80 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 19.80 Evaluated at bid price : 19.80 Bid-YTW : 5.79 %
POW.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	1.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 23.83 Evaluated at bid price : 24.08 Bid-YTW : 5.86 %
FTS.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.69 Evaluated at bid price : 21.94 Bid-YTW : 5.67 %
TD.PR.Y	FixedReset	2.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.83 Bid-YTW : 3.84 %
CU.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	2.08 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 19.60 Evaluated at bid price : 19.60 Bid-YTW : 5.85 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	2.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 8.15 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	2.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 13.84 Evaluated at bid price : 13.84 Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	2.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.42 Evaluated at bid price : 18.42 Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
MFC.PR.N	FixedReset	2.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.65 Bid-YTW : 8.21 %
PWF.PR.H	Perpetual-Premium	2.41 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 24.29 Evaluated at bid price : 24.60 Bid-YTW : 5.87 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	2.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 22.31 Evaluated at bid price : 23.05 Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
FTS.PR.K	FixedReset	2.45 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 16.29 Evaluated at bid price : 16.29 Bid-YTW : 4.64 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	2.46 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 15.40 Evaluated at bid price : 15.40 Bid-YTW : 7.15 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	2.47 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 14.10 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 7.23 %
BNS.PR.L	Deemed-Retractible	2.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.20 Bid-YTW : 5.15 %
MFC.PR.F	FixedReset	2.64 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.05 Bid-YTW : 11.79 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	2.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 8.17 %
FTS.PR.H	FixedReset	2.80 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 12.85 Evaluated at bid price : 12.85 Bid-YTW : 4.42 %
FTS.PR.J	Perpetual-Discount	2.86 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.20 Evaluated at bid price : 21.20 Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
BIP.PR.A	FixedReset	2.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 17.81 Evaluated at bid price : 17.81 Bid-YTW : 6.16 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	3.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.71 Bid-YTW : 7.11 %
FTS.PR.G	FixedReset	3.23 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 16.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.00 Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	3.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.01 Evaluated at bid price : 18.01 Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	3.38 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 10.70 Evaluated at bid price : 10.70 Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
PWF.PR.P	FixedReset	3.45 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 12.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.00 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	3.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 10.35 Evaluated at bid price : 10.35 Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	3.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.60 Bid-YTW : 10.22 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	4.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 21.35 Evaluated at bid price : 21.35 Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	4.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 8.90 Evaluated at bid price : 8.90 Bid-YTW : 6.96 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	5.37 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 15.30 Evaluated at bid price : 15.30 Bid-YTW : 7.20 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	177,471	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.61 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	103,750	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 23.12 Evaluated at bid price : 24.94 Bid-YTW : 5.57 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	56,839	TD crossed 40,600 at 18.30. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.42 Evaluated at bid price : 18.42 Bid-YTW : 4.62 %
MFC.PR.G	FixedReset	51,500	Scotia crossed 40,000 at 17.66. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.89 Bid-YTW : 8.37 %
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	50,272	Desjardins crossed 15,000 at 25.65. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 23.33 Evaluated at bid price : 25.61 Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	46,100	Scotia crossed 40,000 at 14.30. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.60 Bid-YTW : 10.22 %
There were 31 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
BMO.PR.R	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.79 – 22.50 Spot Rate : 0.7100 Average : 0.5274 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.79 Bid-YTW : 4.50 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	Quote: 14.60 – 15.10 Spot Rate : 0.5000 Average : 0.3290 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.60 Bid-YTW : 10.22 %
BMO.PR.S	FixedReset	Quote: 17.40 – 17.87 Spot Rate : 0.4700 Average : 0.3032 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 17.40 Evaluated at bid price : 17.40 Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
BNS.PR.P	FixedReset	Quote: 23.58 – 24.29 Spot Rate : 0.7100 Average : 0.5701 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.58 Bid-YTW : 4.08 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	Quote: 18.80 – 19.60 Spot Rate : 0.8000 Average : 0.6625 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-29 Maturity Price : 18.80 Evaluated at bid price : 18.80 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.16 – 21.80 Spot Rate : 0.6400 Average : 0.5269 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.16 Bid-YTW : 5.09 %

Market Action

January 28, 2016

The regulatory push to move trading jobs offshore is showing signs of success:

The $13.2 trillion Treasuries market is getting pushed around more by global developments, the [JPMorgan] analysts wrote in a note titled “24 hour party people redux: Global liquidity in U.S. Treasury futures.”
…
Sleep-deprived Wall Street traders aren’t the only ones who should care. It underscores the changing structure of a market where plenty of strange distortions are happening, the analysts said.

Bond dealers’ trading books are smaller than before the financial crisis, and new regulations are making it more expensive to facilitate trades and provide some types of overnight financing. On top of that, reserve managers at global central banks sold more U.S. debt to raise cash last year, which put more pressure on the balance sheets of the dealers handling that business, the analysts said.

As a result, more trading is happening in futures relative to cash Treasuries, according to the note, since futures transactions don’t require banks to use their balance sheets. For one 10-year Treasury futures contract, about 5 percent of its volume comes around the open of trading in Tokyo and more than 25 percent is traded around the open in London, the analysts said.

To my dismay, the NYT has endorsed a Tobin Tax:

A well-designed financial transaction tax — one that applies a tiny tax rate to an array of transactions and is split between buyers and sellers — would be a progressive way to raise substantial revenue without damaging the markets. A new study by researchers at the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center has found that a 0.1 percent tax rate could bring in $66 billion a year, with 40 percent coming from the top 1 percent of income earners and 75 percent from the top 20 percent. As the rate rises, however, traders would most likely curtail their activity. The tax could bring in $76 billion a year if it was set at 0.3 percent, but above that rate, trading would probably decrease and the total revenue raised would start to fall.

The burden of this tax would be concentrated at the top, because that’s where the ownership of financial assets is concentrated.
…
Critics also contend that a financial transaction tax would have damaging effects on trade volume, volatility and the ability of markets to determine asset prices. That is debatable, and setting the tax rate low at first, and raising it gradually, would help avoid potential damage. But the possibility of unintended consequences is not the real obstacle to a broad and prudent financial transaction tax. It is that a majority of lawmakers are not willing to challenge Wall Street’s power. Imposing the tax will take leadership from the next president.

My opposition to a Tobin tax was last discussed on December 29, 2015.

A link in Ken Kivenko’s Fund Observer led me to an exhortation from the Consumers Council of Canada, which led me to an OSC-commissioned report titled Current Practices for Risk Profiling in Canada And Review of Global Best Practices, which led me to a Morningstar paper titled Variable Risk Preference Bias:

The average monthly risk aversion scores from our dataset are shown in Figure 1 along with the S&P 500 Index to illustrate the relation between stock returns and risk aversion over time.

Click for Big

The OSC report claims that:

Guillemette and Finke (2014) find that the correlation between a popular risk tolerance assessment score and the S&P 500 was 0.90 (or nearly perfect) during the January 2007 through March 2009 bear market, but then only 0.01 between the remainder of 2009 and April 2012. A review of scores from a 3-question risk tolerance instrument given to employees participating in Morningstar’s Managed Account program shows a similar correlation between S&P values and measured risk tolerance.

So that was kind of interesting. But what made me laugh was the paragraph in the Morningstar report that read:

Differences in the method of compensation provided through share class structure may influence whether the advisor gains from de-biasing a client who is tempted to shift his or her portfolio to safety during an equity market decline. Class A shares compensate the advisor through the payment of an upfront load. Advisors may have an incentive to encourage a client to buy a safer fund (and pay a front-end load) when they feel more risk averse and then sell them another risky fund when their risk aversion declines after prices rise. This provides a disincentive to de-bias a client. Advisors who receive compensation through higher trail commissions (C shares) have no incentive to encourage a client to shift out of risky funds during a temporary increase in risk aversion. Higher trail compensation may provide a valuable de-biasing incentive since the advisor does not need to sell a new fund to receive compensation. We hypothesize that lower 12b-1 fees lead to an incentive for advisors not to de-bias clients since their compensation is increased by catering to investor variable risk preferences by selling them new funds. For example, if the stock market falls and the client becomes more risk averse, an advisor compensated through front-end commissions has a greater incentive to move that client into bonds than an advisor who receives more commissions on a trail basis.

Granted, this is in the context of a comparison between transaction-based and asset-based fees, but it still made me laugh. I don’t think that part will be cited in an OSC report any time soon! However, the Morningstar paper also led me to a paper published by the Chicago Fed titled From the Horse’s Mouth: How do Investor Expectations of Risk and Return Vary with Economic Conditions?:

Data obtained from monthly Gallup/UBS surveys from 1998-2007 and from a special supplement to the Michigan Surveys of Consumer Attitudes, run in 22 monthly surveys between 2000-2005, are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. We show that the key variables found to be positive predictors of actual stock returns in the asset-pricing literature are also highly correlated with investor’s reported expected returns, but with the opposite sign. Moreover, analysis of the micro data indicates that expectations of both risk and returns on stocks are strongly influenced by perceptions of economic conditions. In particular, when investors believe macroeconomic conditions are more expansionary, they tend to expect both higher returns and lower volatility. This is difficult to reconcile with the canonical view that expected returns on stocks rise during recessions to compensate household investors for increased exposure or sensitivity to macroeconomic risks. Finally, the relevance of these investors’ reported expectations is supported by the finding of a significant link between their expectations and portfolio choices. In particular, we show that portfolio equity positions tend to be higher for those respondents that anticipate higher expected returns or lower uncertainty.

So it’s all interesting and goes a long way towards providing comfort that the ‘people are selling because the market is down’ hypothesis has at least some basis in fact.

Here’s a good illustration about how empty-headed regulatory do-goodism can reduce civil liberties while inflating university costs:

The online admissions application for Auburn University appears simple, until you get to this question on Page 7:

“Have you ever been charged with or convicted of or pled guilty or nolo contendere to a crime other than a minor traffic offense, or are there any criminal charges now pending against you?”

Those who check “yes,” even though they have never been convicted of any crime, face extra scrutiny — a follow-up call from the admissions office asking for additional information, the university says.
…
“Lots of colleges and universities don’t like the fact that they feel like they have to ask these questions,” said Michael Reilly, the executive director of the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers. “But they feel like they do, just because of how prominent some of these cases are of things like sexual assault on college campuses. And they feel like they need to do what they can to screen students.”

It was a very good day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts winning 80bp, FixedResets up 64bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 36bp. There are lots of winners in the Performance Highlights table! Volume was average.

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.25 to be $1.20 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.73 cheap at its bid price of 11.17.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.25 to be 0.89 rich, while MFC.PR.F, resetting at +141bp on 2016-6-19, is bid at 11.74 to be 0.88 cheap.

Click for Big

The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.55 to be $1.69 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.61 and appears to be $1.10 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.90, looks $0.38 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.50 and is $0.41 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.81%, with two outliers below -1.50%. There are no junk outliers.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.30 %	6.43 %	19,181	16.17	1	-1.6154 %	1,473.5
FixedFloater	7.66 %	6.69 %	28,181	15.59	1	0.6494 %	2,595.0
Floater	4.65 %	4.79 %	72,305	15.86	4	2.5492 %	1,648.3
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.3275 %	2,684.9
SplitShare	4.92 %	6.90 %	81,025	2.71	6	-0.3275 %	3,141.8
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.3275 %	2,451.4
Perpetual-Premium	5.92 %	5.89 %	84,349	13.87	6	0.1146 %	2,494.6
Perpetual-Discount	5.86 %	5.91 %	101,914	14.00	33	0.7968 %	2,459.4
FixedReset	5.66 %	5.05 %	237,273	14.62	83	0.6386 %	1,823.6
Deemed-Retractible	5.29 %	5.78 %	134,694	6.95	34	0.3613 %	2,552.0
FloatingReset	2.98 %	4.67 %	58,561	5.57	13	0.1107 %	2,016.2

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
TRP.PR.H	FloatingReset	-2.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 9.13 Evaluated at bid price : 9.13 Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
PWF.PR.A	Floater	-2.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 10.90 Evaluated at bid price : 10.90 Bid-YTW : 4.33 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	-2.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.07 Bid-YTW : 7.54 %
GWO.PR.N	FixedReset	-2.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.90 Bid-YTW : 11.77 %
CIU.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 10.39 Evaluated at bid price : 10.39 Bid-YTW : 5.14 %
BNS.PR.L	Deemed-Retractible	-1.63 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.61 Bid-YTW : 5.63 %
BAM.PR.E	Ratchet	-1.62 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.79 Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	-1.58 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.44 Evaluated at bid price : 17.44 Bid-YTW : 4.94 %
PWF.PR.H	Perpetual-Premium	-1.52 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 23.71 Evaluated at bid price : 24.02 Bid-YTW : 6.01 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	-1.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.22 Bid-YTW : 7.66 %
PVS.PR.C	SplitShare	-1.38 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2017-12-10 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.31 Bid-YTW : 6.89 %
CM.PR.Q	FixedReset	-1.31 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 18.85 Evaluated at bid price : 18.85 Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
TD.PR.T	FloatingReset	-1.22 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.82 Bid-YTW : 4.43 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	-1.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.01 Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
BNS.PR.D	FloatingReset	-1.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.42 Bid-YTW : 6.83 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	1.00 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 10.72 %
RY.PR.E	Deemed-Retractible	1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.00 Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
GWO.PR.I	Deemed-Retractible	1.02 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.71 Bid-YTW : 7.21 %
MFC.PR.F	FixedReset	1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.74 Bid-YTW : 12.15 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.41 Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
PWF.PR.E	Perpetual-Discount	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 23.09 Evaluated at bid price : 23.35 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 16.51 Evaluated at bid price : 16.51 Bid-YTW : 4.81 %
RY.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 21.84 Evaluated at bid price : 22.18 Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
BAM.PF.H	FixedReset	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2020-12-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.30 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
SLF.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.74 Bid-YTW : 7.14 %
GWO.PR.G	Deemed-Retractible	1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.82 Bid-YTW : 6.60 %
TRP.PR.E	FixedReset	1.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.25 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 4.82 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	1.22 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 11.57 Evaluated at bid price : 11.57 Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BMO.PR.M	FixedReset	1.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.48 Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	1.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 10.00 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 14.19 Evaluated at bid price : 14.19 Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
CU.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	1.37 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.20 Evaluated at bid price : 19.20 Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
HSE.PR.E	FixedReset	1.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 14.52 Evaluated at bid price : 14.52 Bid-YTW : 7.60 %
BIP.PR.A	FixedReset	1.47 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 6.35 %
MFC.PR.N	FixedReset	1.47 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 8.54 %
NA.PR.S	FixedReset	1.49 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.06 Evaluated at bid price : 17.06 Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
HSE.PR.C	FixedReset	1.55 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 13.76 Evaluated at bid price : 13.76 Bid-YTW : 7.41 %
MFC.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	1.56 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.78 Bid-YTW : 7.19 %
CU.PR.F	Perpetual-Discount	1.57 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.45 Evaluated at bid price : 19.45 Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
RY.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	1.57 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.97 Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
CU.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	1.58 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 22.26 Evaluated at bid price : 22.55 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
BMO.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.59 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.56 Bid-YTW : 7.39 %
CU.PR.E	Perpetual-Discount	1.59 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 21.03 Evaluated at bid price : 21.03 Bid-YTW : 5.93 %
BAM.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.03 Evaluated at bid price : 19.03 Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
BNS.PR.C	FloatingReset	1.61 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.07 Bid-YTW : 4.51 %
FTS.PR.H	FixedReset	1.63 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 12.50 Evaluated at bid price : 12.50 Bid-YTW : 4.55 %
GWO.PR.Q	Deemed-Retractible	1.68 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.98 Bid-YTW : 6.44 %
TD.PF.C	FixedReset	1.70 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.35 Evaluated at bid price : 17.35 Bid-YTW : 4.53 %
ELF.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	1.75 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 20.35 Evaluated at bid price : 20.35 Bid-YTW : 5.89 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.19 Bid-YTW : 9.41 %
BAM.PF.D	Perpetual-Discount	1.83 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.51 Evaluated at bid price : 19.51 Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
MFC.PR.K	FixedReset	1.88 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.25 Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
RY.PR.K	FloatingReset	2.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.83 Bid-YTW : 4.76 %
CU.PR.D	Perpetual-Discount	2.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 20.97 Evaluated at bid price : 20.97 Bid-YTW : 5.95 %
MFC.PR.L	FixedReset	2.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.55 Bid-YTW : 8.99 %
BAM.PR.M	Perpetual-Discount	2.36 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.05 Evaluated at bid price : 19.05 Bid-YTW : 6.32 %
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	2.47 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 18.70 Evaluated at bid price : 18.70 Bid-YTW : 5.09 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	2.63 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.19 Bid-YTW : 8.70 %
BNS.PR.Q	FixedReset	2.76 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.44 Bid-YTW : 4.19 %
NA.PR.Q	FixedReset	2.93 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.85 Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
HSE.PR.A	FixedReset	3.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 8.50 Evaluated at bid price : 8.50 Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	3.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.72 Evaluated at bid price : 19.72 Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
IFC.PR.A	FixedReset	3.70 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.00 Bid-YTW : 10.74 %
BAM.PR.B	Floater	4.31 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 9.93 Evaluated at bid price : 9.93 Bid-YTW : 4.80 %
BAM.PR.C	Floater	4.34 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 9.85 Evaluated at bid price : 9.85 Bid-YTW : 4.84 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	4.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.51 Bid-YTW : 4.40 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	4.63 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 9.95 Evaluated at bid price : 9.95 Bid-YTW : 4.79 %
PWF.PR.P	FixedReset	6.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 11.60 Evaluated at bid price : 11.60 Bid-YTW : 5.02 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
BNS.PR.E	FixedReset	112,233	Nesbitt crossed 75,000 at 25.45. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 23.28 Evaluated at bid price : 25.43 Bid-YTW : 5.16 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	86,650	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.45 Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	81,645	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 23.09 Evaluated at bid price : 24.86 Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	78,680	Nesbitt crossed 74,500 at 18.27. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 18.03 Evaluated at bid price : 18.03 Bid-YTW : 4.72 %
BAM.PF.C	Perpetual-Discount	73,400	Scotia crossed 70,000 at 19.32. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 19.32 Evaluated at bid price : 19.32 Bid-YTW : 6.36 %
BMO.PR.S	FixedReset	69,756	Nesbitt crossed 56,700 at 17.20. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.23 Evaluated at bid price : 17.23 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
There were 30 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	Quote: 17.61 – 18.75 Spot Rate : 1.1400 Average : 0.7170 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 17.61 Evaluated at bid price : 17.61 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
MFC.PR.M	FixedReset	Quote: 17.32 – 18.37 Spot Rate : 1.0500 Average : 0.6620 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.32 Bid-YTW : 8.55 %
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	Quote: 11.17 – 12.10 Spot Rate : 0.9300 Average : 0.5588 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 11.17 Evaluated at bid price : 11.17 Bid-YTW : 5.08 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	Quote: 10.00 – 10.70 Spot Rate : 0.7000 Average : 0.4075 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 10.00 Evaluated at bid price : 10.00 Bid-YTW : 5.13 %
TRP.PR.A	FixedReset	Quote: 14.19 – 14.90 Spot Rate : 0.7100 Average : 0.4527 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-28 Maturity Price : 14.19 Evaluated at bid price : 14.19 Bid-YTW : 4.93 %
MFC.PR.N	FixedReset	Quote: 17.25 – 17.96 Spot Rate : 0.7100 Average : 0.4724 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.25 Bid-YTW : 8.54 %

Market Action

January 27, 2016

Today’s big news was the FOMC release:

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook.

Given the economic outlook, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

The important part was the emphasis on global conditions:

The FOMC said Wednesday it is “closely monitoring global economic and financial developments” while “assessing their implications for the labor market and inflation, and for the balance of risks to the outlook” in their statement after a two-day meeting in Washington.

That was a soft back-pedal from December when they said risks were “balanced,” and some economists said it makes an interest-rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in March less likely, while not precluding it. The FOMC left the target for their benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent.

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… and the markets were volatile:

U.S. stocks retreated as the Federal Reserve signaled that financial-market turmoil may pose risks to its outlook for the U.S. economy, while largely maintaining its policy stance. The dollar extended losses versus the euro, while two-year Treasuries rose.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank as the Fed said it is “closely monitoring” developments from China to Europe as well as oil for any adverse impact on the U.S. economy. Apple Inc. and Boeing Co. plunged on disappointing results as the two accounted for more than half of the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 223-point slide. Yields on two-year Treasury notes fell a third day, as the Fed kept benchmark rates unchanged and said any future hikes would be gradual. Oil rose past $32 a barrel, and gold gained.
…
The S&P 500 fell 1.1 percent to 1,882.95 as of 4 p.m. in New York, and is headed for a January loss of 7.9 percent, the most since May 2010, with anxiety over global growth wiping as much as $2.4 trillion from the value of U.S. equities this year.
…
In Canada, Bombardier Inc.’s shares fell below C$1, the latest blow for the iconic Canadian manufacturer as it buckles under $9 billion in debt. The nation’s equity benchmark advanced 0.3 percent as energy producers and banks climbed.

Treasuries recovered from their weakest levels of the day. Led by shorter maturities, yields retreated from their Wednesday highs as stocks fell following the Fed’s decision to keep its target range at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, as predicted by Wall Street analysts.

The Fed also emphasized that its policy on inflation is symmetrical:

As part of its annual organizational meeting actions, the Federal Open Market Committee reaffirmed its “Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy,” with a revision to clarify that it views its inflation objective as symmetric, and with an updated reference to participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal unemployment rate in the most recent Summary of Economic Projections (December 2015).
…
Voting against was James Bullard, who agreed the Committee’s inflation goal is symmetric, but believed the amended language is not sufficiently focused on expected future deviations of inflation from the goal.

Meanwhile, there’s a move afoot to increase the paperwork inherent in giving advice:

Canada’s mutual fund regulator is looking into whether fees charged by fund companies – such as management fees – should be included in regulatory changes that will provide investors with greater transparency concerning the cost of financial advice and of their investments.

The changes, known as the second phase of the client relationship model (CRM2), are slated for July 16, 2016, and currently do not include the costs imposed by mutual fund managers.

The focus of CRM2 is to provide disclosure of the cost of advice rather than the overall cost of an investment product. Currently – under CRM2 rules – the Mutual Fund Dealers Association will require wealth management companies to provide each investor with an annual summary of charges paid by the investor and compensation received by the firm.

Although the changes have yet to come into effect, the MFDA received feedback from financial advisers, investment dealers, fund companies and investor advocates asking to consider expanding the reporting rules to require disclosure of the other costs of owning investment funds that are not paid to the investment firm – or the financial adviser – such as management fees, fund operating costs, redemption fees and short-term trading fees.

This will help build on the biggest regulatory success story in Canadian history:

In 2000, banks controlled 23 per cent of all Canadian long-term mutual fund assets, with independents controlling 64 per cent. By the end of 2015, the banks had more than doubled their market share to nearly 50 per cent.

The banks have an enormous advantage: distribution through their branch networks. They have also been building – and buying – fund manufacturing businesses. In many cases, they now control which funds are created and where they are sold.

So buy GICs, people! They’re FREE!

Meanwhile, bond investors aren’t getting away with much:

While not as pronounced as the rout in global equity markets, losses are beginning to pile up in the bond market too. The average spread over benchmark government yields for highly rated debt has widened to 1.83 percentage points, the most in three years, from 1.18 percentage points in March, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes. Investors lost 0.2 percent on global corporate bonds in 2015, snapping a string of annual gains that averaged 7.9 percent over the previous six years, the data show.

Debt at global companies rated by Standard & Poor’s reached three times earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in 2015, the highest in data going back to 2003 and up from 2.8 times last year, according to the ratings company. Total debt at listed companies in China, the world’s second-largest economy, has climbed to the highest level in three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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Best of all, there are high hopes that soon all those pesky non-banks will be gone:

Bombardier class B shares sank below $1 in Toronto trading Wednesday, less than half the price of its $2.21-a-share equity offering a year ago. The drop raises the possibility the company will be ejected from Canada’s main S&P/TSX stock index. To be eligible for inclusion in the index, which is reviewed quarterly, a security has to have a minimum volume-weighted average price of $1 over the past three months and must represent a minimum weight of 0.05 per cent of the index.

Tomorrow is the long awaited vote on the murky DC.PR.C Exchange Offer. One must carefully guard against human propensity to form patterns from unconnected events … but Dundee just raised a bunch of cash:

Euro Pacific Canada (“Euro Pacific”) and Dundee Securities Ltd., have entered into a definitive agreement, in which Euro Pacific will acquire Dundee Goodman Private Wealth (“DGPW”), a division of Dundee Securities Ltd. Upon completion of this transaction 78 investment advisors and related support teams will move from DGPW to Euro Pacific. Approximately $3.5 billion of investible client assets will also be transferred to Euro Pacific. Euro Pacific will also acquire Dundee Securities’ separately managed account program as well as employees related to its fixed income, foreign exchange and insurance businesses. DGPW and Euro Pacific are both members of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (“IIROC”) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (“CIPF”).

Transaction Highlights:

•Increases Euro Pacific Assets Under Management and Administration to approximately $4.2 billion;
•Euro Pacific triples in size to 100 investment advisors along with related support staff and adds offices in Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria;
•Advances Dundee’s focus of growing its alternative asset management and private investment counsel business lines;
•Dundee and Euro Pacific will enter into a distribution agreement for future differentiated products; and
•The transaction is expected to result in approximately $40 million of additional liquidity and ongoing cost savings to Dundee, which will support strategic priorities.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 27bp, FixedResets up 14bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 12bp. The Performance Highlights table is its usual jolly self. Volume was above average.

PerpetualDiscounts now yield 5.96%, equivalent to 7.75% at the standard equivalency factor of 1.3x. Long corporates now yield about 4.25% (maybe a little more) so the pre-tax interest-equivalent spread (in this context, the “Seniority Spread”) is now about 350bp, a slight (and perhaps spurious) decline from the 355bp reported January 13. Incredibly elevated!

Here’s TRP:

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TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.05 to be $1.12 rich, while TRP.PR.G, resetting 2020-11-30 at +296, is $0.70 cheap at its bid price of 18.05.

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Most expensive is MFC.PR.M, resetting at +236bp on 2019-12-19, bid at 17.33 to be 0.89 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.55 to be 0.90 cheap.

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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.45 to be $1.72 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.69 and appears to be $1.24 rich.

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FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.84, looks $0.36 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.40 and is $0.50 cheap.

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Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.52%, with one outlier below -1.50% and one above +0.50%. There is one junk outlier below -1.50% and two above +0.50%.

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Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.21 %	6.33 %	20,027	16.30	1	1.6537 %	1,497.7
FixedFloater	7.71 %	6.73 %	28,687	15.54	1	-1.0442 %	2,578.3
Floater	4.77 %	5.01 %	73,237	15.47	4	1.5897 %	1,607.3
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.3917 %	2,693.7
SplitShare	4.90 %	6.74 %	77,690	2.72	6	0.3917 %	3,152.1
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	0.3917 %	2,459.4
Perpetual-Premium	5.92 %	5.92 %	87,378	13.96	6	0.4741 %	2,491.7
Perpetual-Discount	5.91 %	5.96 %	102,059	13.97	33	-0.2657 %	2,440.0
FixedReset	5.69 %	5.10 %	235,170	14.64	83	0.1390 %	1,812.0
Deemed-Retractible	5.31 %	5.86 %	130,509	6.95	34	0.1222 %	2,542.8
FloatingReset	2.98 %	4.80 %	59,349	5.57	13	0.1601 %	2,014.0

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
BAM.PF.F	FixedReset	-4.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.25 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 5.22 %
MFC.PR.J	FixedReset	-3.85 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.75 Bid-YTW : 9.06 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	-3.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 21.85 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	-2.54 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 13.45 Evaluated at bid price : 13.45 Bid-YTW : 5.74 %
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	-2.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	-1.98 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.25 Bid-YTW : 5.01 %
ELF.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	-1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 5.99 %
BAM.PF.G	FixedReset	-1.81 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.41 Evaluated at bid price : 18.41 Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.M	Perpetual-Discount	-1.74 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.61 Evaluated at bid price : 18.61 Bid-YTW : 6.47 %
MFC.PR.I	FixedReset	-1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.84 Bid-YTW : 8.47 %
PWF.PR.P	FixedReset	-1.53 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 10.93 Evaluated at bid price : 10.93 Bid-YTW : 5.33 %
FTS.PR.I	FloatingReset	-1.52 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 10.34 Evaluated at bid price : 10.34 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
TD.PF.C	FixedReset	-1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 17.06 Evaluated at bid price : 17.06 Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	-1.32 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.51 Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
PWF.PR.E	Perpetual-Discount	-1.28 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 22.83 Evaluated at bid price : 23.11 Bid-YTW : 5.97 %
BAM.PR.N	Perpetual-Discount	-1.27 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.73 Evaluated at bid price : 18.73 Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
BAM.PF.D	Perpetual-Discount	-1.19 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 19.16 Evaluated at bid price : 19.16 Bid-YTW : 6.48 %
GWO.PR.P	Deemed-Retractible	-1.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 6.39 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	-1.10 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.05 Evaluated at bid price : 18.05 Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
RY.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	-1.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	-1.07 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.17 Bid-YTW : 4.48 %
BAM.PR.G	FixedFloater	-1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.32 Bid-YTW : 6.73 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	-1.02 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.50 Bid-YTW : 7.45 %
BAM.PF.A	FixedReset	-1.01 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 18.56 Evaluated at bid price : 18.56 Bid-YTW : 5.10 %
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 17.66 Evaluated at bid price : 17.66 Bid-YTW : 5.00 %
TD.PR.Y	FixedReset	1.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.30 Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
POW.PR.D	Perpetual-Discount	1.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 21.17 Evaluated at bid price : 21.17 Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
BNS.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.81 Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
FTS.PR.H	FixedReset	1.07 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 12.30 Evaluated at bid price : 12.30 Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
PWF.PR.I	Perpetual-Premium	1.11 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2016-02-26 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.40 Bid-YTW : -13.83 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	1.14 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 23.55 Evaluated at bid price : 23.87 Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BMO.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.51 Bid-YTW : 7.68 %
BAM.PR.K	Floater	1.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 9.51 Evaluated at bid price : 9.51 Bid-YTW : 5.02 %
TD.PR.T	FloatingReset	1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.09 Bid-YTW : 4.20 %
BNS.PR.D	FloatingReset	1.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.63 Bid-YTW : 6.62 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	1.26 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 17.72 Evaluated at bid price : 17.72 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
SLF.PR.D	Deemed-Retractible	1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.43 Bid-YTW : 7.35 %
SLF.PR.B	Deemed-Retractible	1.39 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.85 Bid-YTW : 6.78 %
RY.PR.L	FixedReset	1.44 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.60 Bid-YTW : 4.11 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	1.59 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.20 Bid-YTW : 7.34 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	1.60 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.90 Bid-YTW : 9.67 %
BNS.PR.Z	FixedReset	1.64 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.60 Bid-YTW : 7.48 %
BAM.PR.E	Ratchet	1.65 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.00 Bid-YTW : 6.33 %
IGM.PR.B	Perpetual-Premium	1.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 23.98 Evaluated at bid price : 24.44 Bid-YTW : 6.05 %
SLF.PR.I	FixedReset	1.74 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.95 Bid-YTW : 8.89 %
SLF.PR.E	Deemed-Retractible	1.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.66 Bid-YTW : 7.25 %
PWF.PR.A	Floater	1.83 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 11.15 Evaluated at bid price : 11.15 Bid-YTW : 4.23 %
SLF.PR.A	Deemed-Retractible	1.96 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.87 Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	2.06 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 16.34 Evaluated at bid price : 16.34 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
PVS.PR.B	SplitShare	2.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2019-01-10 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 6.74 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 9.87 Evaluated at bid price : 9.87 Bid-YTW : 5.20 %
BAM.PR.C	Floater	2.61 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 9.44 Evaluated at bid price : 9.44 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	2.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
BMO.PR.M	FixedReset	2.77 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.40 Bid-YTW : 4.16 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	2.81 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 16.45 Evaluated at bid price : 16.45 Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
TD.PR.S	FixedReset	3.07 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.50 Bid-YTW : 3.91 %
TRP.PR.H	FloatingReset	3.30 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 9.39 Evaluated at bid price : 9.39 Bid-YTW : 4.68 %
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	4.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 11.22 Evaluated at bid price : 11.22 Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	4.71 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 20.45 Evaluated at bid price : 20.45 Bid-YTW : 3.99 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
SLF.PR.A	Deemed-Retractible	98,602	RBC bought 26,100 from Desjardins at 21.71 and another 10,000 from TD at 22.00. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.87 Bid-YTW : 6.71 %
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	96,928	>Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 23.10 Evaluated at bid price : 24.87 Bid-YTW : 5.59 %
RY.PR.O	Perpetual-Discount	78,130	TD bought three blocks of 10,000 each from RBC, all at 21.90. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 21.58 Evaluated at bid price : 21.90 Bid-YTW : 5.58 %
BMO.PR.W	FixedReset	57,258	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 16.89 Evaluated at bid price : 16.89 Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	55,539	Scotia crossed blocks of 25,000 and 16,100, both at 16.73. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 17.05 Evaluated at bid price : 17.05 Bid-YTW : 4.73 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	48,550	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.45 Bid-YTW : 5.18 %
There were 40 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 19.10 – 20.25 Spot Rate : 1.1500 Average : 0.7867 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 6.14 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	Quote: 22.51 – 23.80 Spot Rate : 1.2900 Average : 1.0317 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.51 Bid-YTW : 5.21 %
RY.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	Quote: 23.60 – 24.20 Spot Rate : 0.6000 Average : 0.3537 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 5.52 %
RY.PR.P	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 23.87 – 24.65 Spot Rate : 0.7800 Average : 0.5734 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 23.55 Evaluated at bid price : 23.87 Bid-YTW : 5.49 %
BIP.PR.B	FixedReset	Quote: 22.30 – 22.87 Spot Rate : 0.5700 Average : 0.3806 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-27 Maturity Price : 21.85 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 6.25 %
SLF.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	Quote: 20.51 – 21.10 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4012 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.51 Bid-YTW : 7.29 %

Market Action

January 26, 2016

Bloomberg published a graph showing how common negative yields have become:

Click for Big

There was a good chunk of pension de-risking done by Sun Life:

Two Canadian pension plans are teaming up to buy about $530-million of annuities, in a creative deal to transfer investment, longevity and inflation risk to an insurance company.

The two defined-benefit pension plans, owned by companies that did not want to be named, have struck the joint annuity agreement with Sun Life Financial Inc. despite having no other relation to each other. The advantage of banding together and doing the transaction at the same time was more than $20-million dollars in savings combined as Sun Life balanced the inflation exposure of the two plans.

Sun Life began working with both companies separately in early 2015, and the insurer noticed that they had different inflation formulas. “One plan sponsor promised to increase benefits when inflation was low. The other promised to increase benefits when inflation was high,” said Brent Simmons, senior managing director for defined-benefits at Sun Life, adding that both promises are tricky to buy proper asset management strategies for.
…
Annuities for pension plans are part of a strategy known as “pension de-risking” in industry parlance, and they are a way of reducing long-term risks and ratcheting down income volatility for defined-benefit pension plans. These sorts of transactions became commonplace in the United States several years ago, and the U.K. has also been a leader with £19-billion ($38-billion) in de-risking deals last year. Canada’s market is still developing.

Two significant de-risking annuity deals in Canada include a $150-million deal by the Canadian Wheat Board in 2013, and a $500-million deal with an unnamed Canadian company done by Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. last year.

Meanwhile, Canadian retail is moving to cash:

Canadians are holding a record $75-billion in cash amid an “ocean of fear” about investing in the markets, a new study finds.

That means they could miss out on billions in payback, warns the study released today by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce economists Benjamin Tal and Royce Mendes.
…
And here’s a stunning figure from the report: The extra money accounts for about 10 per cent of all personal liquid assets in the country.

This angst isn’t new. It obviously came about during the 1987 crash, and again in 2001 and then again during the financial crisis.

Click for Big

Click for Big

Sadly, it appears there will be no more entertainment from Silver Bullion Trust:

Silver Bullion Trust (“SBT” or the “Trust”) (symbol: TSX – SBT.UN (C$) and SBT.U (US$)) today announced that SBT Unitholders voted to approve amendments to SBT’s Amended and Restated Declaration of Trust dated July 9, 2009 (the “DOT”), in order to permit its conversion from a closed-end fund to a silver-bullion exchange traded fund (the “ETF Conversion”) at a special meeting of Unitholders held earlier today in Toronto.

As soon as possible, Purpose Investments Inc. will become the new manager and trustee of the Trust once the amendments to the DOT are signed and the bullion holdings will be administered by Silver Administrators Limited, SBT’s current administrator.

It was a modestly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 25bp, FixedResets gaining 8bp and DeemedRetractibles off 15bp. The Performance Highlights table shows a fair bit of movement below the placid surface. Volume was on the low side of average.

Here’s TRP:

Click for Big

TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.06 to be $1.27 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +154, is $0.92 cheap at its bid price of 10.77.

Click for Big

Most expensive is MFC.PR.N, resetting at +230bp on 2020-3-19, bid at 17.10 to be 0.78 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.57 to be 1.11 cheap.

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The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.80 to be $1.57 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255bp on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.69 and appears to be $1.04 rich.

Click for Big

FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.75, looks $0.40 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.G, with a spread of +213bp and resetting 2018-9-1, is bid at 15.31 and is $0.45 cheap.

Click for Big

Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.35%, with one outlier below -1.50%. Note the range of the y-axis has changed. There is one junk outlier below -1.50% and two above +0.50%.

Click for Big

Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index	Mean Current Yield (at bid)	Median YTW	Median Average Trading Value	Median Mod Dur (YTW)	Issues	Day’s Perf.	Index Value
Ratchet	5.28 %	6.43 %	20,369	16.11	1	-1.1538 %	1,473.4
FixedFloater	7.63 %	6.66 %	28,978	15.63	1	0.7282 %	2,605.5
Floater	4.85 %	5.05 %	74,218	15.41	4	-0.3831 %	1,582.2
OpRet	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.2094 %	2,683.2
SplitShare	4.92 %	7.12 %	78,662	2.71	6	-0.2094 %	3,139.8
Interest-Bearing	0.00 %	0.00 %	0	0.00	0	-0.2094 %	2,449.8
Perpetual-Premium	5.95 %	5.91 %	88,581	13.97	6	-0.1488 %	2,480.0
Perpetual-Discount	5.89 %	5.91 %	101,704	13.99	33	-0.2510 %	2,446.5
FixedReset	5.70 %	5.04 %	239,250	14.57	83	0.0787 %	1,809.5
Deemed-Retractible	5.31 %	5.86 %	127,971	6.95	34	-0.1462 %	2,539.7
FloatingReset	2.98 %	4.72 %	61,161	5.57	13	0.2497 %	2,010.8

Performance Highlights
Issue	Index	Change	Notes
TRP.PR.C	FixedReset	-4.18 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 10.77 Evaluated at bid price : 10.77 Bid-YTW : 5.27 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	-3.52 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.80 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
NA.PR.W	FixedReset	-3.26 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 16.01 Evaluated at bid price : 16.01 Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
BAM.PR.X	FixedReset	-2.85 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 12.25 Evaluated at bid price : 12.25 Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
TRP.PR.B	FixedReset	-2.72 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 9.66 Evaluated at bid price : 9.66 Bid-YTW : 5.32 %
VNR.PR.A	FixedReset	-2.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 16.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.00 Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
PWF.PR.T	FixedReset	-2.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 19.53 Evaluated at bid price : 19.53 Bid-YTW : 4.18 %
POW.PR.D	Perpetual-Discount	-2.33 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 20.95 Evaluated at bid price : 20.95 Bid-YTW : 6.02 %
BAM.PF.B	FixedReset	-2.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.48 Evaluated at bid price : 17.48 Bid-YTW : 5.05 %
PWF.PR.P	FixedReset	-2.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 11.10 Evaluated at bid price : 11.10 Bid-YTW : 5.25 %
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	-2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.25 Bid-YTW : 11.91 %
IFC.PR.C	FixedReset	-2.13 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.65 Bid-YTW : 9.89 %
PVS.PR.E	SplitShare	-1.87 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-10-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.11 Bid-YTW : 7.12 %
BNS.PR.Z	FixedReset	-1.82 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.30 Bid-YTW : 7.78 %
PWF.PR.A	Floater	-1.79 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 10.95 Evaluated at bid price : 10.95 Bid-YTW : 4.31 %
POW.PR.A	Perpetual-Discount	-1.58 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 23.38 Evaluated at bid price : 23.67 Bid-YTW : 5.96 %
GWO.PR.L	Deemed-Retractible	-1.57 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.51 Bid-YTW : 6.03 %
TD.PR.S	FixedReset	-1.51 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.80 Bid-YTW : 4.47 %
BAM.PF.E	FixedReset	-1.45 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.69 Evaluated at bid price : 17.69 Bid-YTW : 5.04 %
BMO.PR.M	FixedReset	-1.43 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.77 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
SLF.PR.J	FloatingReset	-1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.50 Bid-YTW : 11.80 %
CU.PR.C	FixedReset	-1.25 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 16.60 Evaluated at bid price : 16.60 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
POW.PR.G	Perpetual-Discount	-1.24 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 23.36 Evaluated at bid price : 23.82 Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
POW.PR.B	Perpetual-Discount	-1.22 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 22.41 Evaluated at bid price : 22.67 Bid-YTW : 5.94 %
TRP.PR.F	FloatingReset	-1.22 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 11.37 Evaluated at bid price : 11.37 Bid-YTW : 5.29 %
BAM.PR.E	Ratchet	-1.15 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.85 Bid-YTW : 6.43 %
IFC.PR.A	FixedReset	-1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.40 Bid-YTW : 11.37 %
MFC.PR.H	FixedReset	1.03 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.70 Bid-YTW : 7.31 %
TD.PF.E	FixedReset	1.12 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 19.85 Evaluated at bid price : 19.85 Bid-YTW : 4.57 %
RY.PR.H	FixedReset	1.16 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.41 Evaluated at bid price : 17.41 Bid-YTW : 4.52 %
BNS.PR.R	FixedReset	1.29 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.81 Bid-YTW : 4.96 %
PVS.PR.D	SplitShare	1.34 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2021-10-08 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.00 Bid-YTW : 7.28 %
BAM.PR.R	FixedReset	1.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 13.80 Evaluated at bid price : 13.80 Bid-YTW : 5.60 %
BNS.PR.A	FloatingReset	1.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.40 Bid-YTW : 4.41 %
CCS.PR.C	Deemed-Retractible	1.41 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.55 Bid-YTW : 7.20 %
BMO.PR.Y	FixedReset	1.42 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 19.27 Evaluated at bid price : 19.27 Bid-YTW : 4.63 %
RY.PR.M	FixedReset	1.50 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 18.25 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
RY.PR.I	FixedReset	1.61 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.42 Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
FTS.PR.M	FixedReset	1.69 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.50 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 4.92 %
NA.PR.Q	FixedReset	1.78 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.30 Bid-YTW : 5.47 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	1.89 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
RY.PR.J	FixedReset	1.98 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 18.52 Evaluated at bid price : 18.52 Bid-YTW : 4.71 %
RY.PR.Z	FixedReset	2.04 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.50 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 4.44 %
SLF.PR.G	FixedReset	2.05 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 12.94 Bid-YTW : 10.76 %
TD.PF.D	FixedReset	2.09 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 19.01 Evaluated at bid price : 19.01 Bid-YTW : 4.66 %
HSE.PR.G	FixedReset	2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 15.10 Evaluated at bid price : 15.10 Bid-YTW : 7.29 %
SLF.PR.H	FixedReset	2.17 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 14.10 Bid-YTW : 10.71 %
SLF.PR.I	FixedReset	2.40 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 16.66 Bid-YTW : 9.13 %
TD.PF.A	FixedReset	2.95 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.11 Evaluated at bid price : 17.11 Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
BNS.PR.B	FloatingReset	3.19 %	YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.68 Bid-YTW : 4.64 %

Volume Highlights
Issue	Index	Shares Traded	Notes
NA.PR.X	FixedReset	146,614	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 23.06 Evaluated at bid price : 24.77 Bid-YTW : 5.61 %
TD.PF.G	FixedReset	88,726	Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.36 Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
RY.PR.Q	FixedReset	76,204	Desjardins crossed 10,700 at 25.47. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 23.29 Evaluated at bid price : 25.46 Bid-YTW : 5.17 %
BMO.PR.S	FixedReset	70,795	Nesbitt crossed 12,500 at 17.55. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.46 Evaluated at bid price : 17.46 Bid-YTW : 4.69 %
GWO.PR.F	Deemed-Retractible	68,245	Desjardins crossed 45,400 at 25.15; Nesbitt crossed 21,300 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2016-02-25 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.15 Bid-YTW : 3.71 %
BAM.PR.X	FixedReset	67,200	TD crossed 50,000 at 12.55. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 12.25 Evaluated at bid price : 12.25 Bid-YTW : 5.54 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.

Wide Spread Highlights
Issue	Index	Quote Data and Yield Notes
GWO.PR.O	FloatingReset	Quote: 11.25 – 20.25 Spot Rate : 9.0000 Average : 5.9189 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.25 Bid-YTW : 11.91 %
BNS.PR.C	FloatingReset	Quote: 21.65 – 22.73 Spot Rate : 1.0800 Average : 0.6508 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.65 Bid-YTW : 4.86 %
IAG.PR.G	FixedReset	Quote: 18.90 – 19.77 Spot Rate : 0.8700 Average : 0.6118 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 18.90 Bid-YTW : 7.55 %
TRP.PR.G	FixedReset	Quote: 17.90 – 18.65 Spot Rate : 0.7500 Average : 0.4990 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.90 Evaluated at bid price : 17.90 Bid-YTW : 5.26 %
BAM.PR.Z	FixedReset	Quote: 17.80 – 18.64 Spot Rate : 0.8400 Average : 0.6271 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 17.80 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
W.PR.H	Perpetual-Discount	Quote: 22.00 – 22.47 Spot Rate : 0.4700 Average : 0.3051 YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-01-26 Maturity Price : 21.75 Evaluated at bid price : 22.00 Bid-YTW : 6.30 %

PrefBlog

Category: Market Action

February 8, 2016

February 5, 2016

February 4, 2016

February 3, 2016

February 2, 2016

February 1, 2016

January 29, 2016

January 28, 2016

January 27, 2016

January 26, 2016

Archives

Of Interest