Category: Market Action

Market Action

September 30, 2014

The downside of the elimination of bankruptcy law as it relates to banks is becoming apparent:

But after studying the proposals, National Bank Financial analyst Peter Routledge found that, under the new rules, commmon shareholders should be much more concerned, because they are quickly treated as collateral damage under the new regime. Should a new crisis emerge, common shareholders could be quickly wiped out, and that could rewrite the survival playbook.

Employing standard banking assumptions about leverage ratios and balance sheet sizes, Mr. Routledge discovered that just a 6 per cent drop in asset values, possibly from writing down a loan book and securities portfolio, would deplete a bank’s common equity capital. Because the bank’s existing common shareholders would then be wiped out, the preferred shareholders and bondholders would have their securities converted into common shares – making them the bank’s new owners.

Under the old rules, governments tried their best to protect common shareholders by setting up bailout schemes such as the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which purchased preferred shares and took toxic debt off of bank balance sheets, but did not upend the common equity investor base.

Mr. Routledge worries too few people appreciate just how easy it is to wipe out the existing shareholders under the proposed rules. When people start to realize this, possibly during the next crisis, he fears it will have disastrous implications for troubled banks.

Speaking of banks and debt:

Debt reduction through austerity reduces spending and thus slows growth; slower growth reduces incoming revenues and thus limits the ability to reduce debt.

This is a factor in the stubborn lack of global capital investment that has been limiting economic expansion – and Canada is no exception.

Standard & Poor’s on Monday pointed a finger at consumer debt as it lowered its 2014 growth forecast for the Canadian economy to 2.3 per cent from 2.5 per cent.

“Consumers might still be postponing purchases, worried about the heavy debt burdens they built up in the past decade, and this could be short-circuiting the growth we normally see in recoveries,” said S&P global fixed income analyst Robert Palombi. Without that consumer pick-up, he said, businesses lack a key catalyst to invest in expansion, which in turn has stifled employment growth.

New OSFI honcho Jeremy Rudin gave a speech to the Economic Club of Canada but didn’t say anything of interest.

The ruble’s in trouble:

Prospects Russia is considering capital controls amid the worst performance in emerging markets for the nation’s bonds and currency sent the ruble tumbling past the level at which the central bank said it would step in.

The ruble temporarily slid beyond 44.40 against the Bank of Russia’s basket of dollars and euros after two officials said policy makers are considering temporary restrictions if net outflows rise significantly. It pared declines after the central bank said it isn’t considering limits on cross-border capital movements. The yield on 10-year bonds rose six basis points to 9.42 percent, bringing this quarter’s increase to 102 basis points. The Micex Index pared its first gain in four days.

Reimposing restrictions on the flow of money that were abandoned eight years ago threatens to worsen a selloff in Russian assets that has gained momentum as the U.S. and European Union expanded sanctions over the conflict in Ukraine. The ruble slid 14 percent versus the dollar this quarter, breaking record lows in the past three days.

“Capital outflows should sharply increase now,” Stanislav Kopylov, who helps manage 45 billion rubles ($1.14 billion) at UralSib Asset Management in Moscow, said by phone from Moscow. “When you’re threatened like that, you need to urgently pull out the cash.”

And so much for Putin’s grandiose dreams of having a reserve currency:

After proclaiming in 2007 that the ruble was poised to become a haven for global investors, the Russian leader has watched it fade, a victim of his nation’s stagnating economy since the land grab in Ukraine. Now so much money is leaving Russia that its central bank is considering temporary capital controls, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

The ruble’s share of global trading dropped to 0.4 percent from 0.6 percent since 2012, falling five places to rank 18th most-traded in the world, while the yuan tripled to 1.5 percent, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, or SWIFT. Even as protests in Hong Kong this week challenged China’s leadership, direct trading began between the yuan and the euro, capping a year in which trade with European Union nations grew 12 percent.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts gaining 2bp, FixedResets up 8bp and DeemedRetractibles off 1bp. Volatility was low. Volume was low.

Now to figure out why PrefInfo isn’t working.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.1783 % 2,680.0
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,464 18.41 1 0.0000 % 4,127.3
Floater 2.89 % 3.01 % 63,851 19.70 4 -0.1783 % 2,771.4
OpRet 4.05 % 2.18 % 93,842 0.08 1 0.0000 % 2,729.2
SplitShare 4.28 % 3.63 % 100,021 3.87 5 0.1978 % 3,161.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,495.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.49 % 2.53 % 75,479 0.08 20 -0.0650 % 2,443.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.29 % 5.17 % 103,207 15.16 16 0.0190 % 2,589.8
FixedReset 4.21 % 3.75 % 177,244 8.47 74 0.0813 % 2,555.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 2.21 % 104,719 0.40 42 -0.0105 % 2,561.5
FloatingReset 2.56 % -5.17 % 79,595 0.08 6 0.1761 % 2,541.1
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CM.PR.D Perpetual-Premium -1.50 % Called for redemption October 31
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 1.47 %
PWF.PR.P FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-30
Maturity Price : 22.70
Evaluated at bid price : 23.15
Bid-YTW : 3.57 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 117,600 Desjardins crossed two blocks of 50,000 each, both at 25.13.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-30
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 63,200 TD crossed 25,000 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-30
Maturity Price : 23.26
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
CM.PR.E Perpetual-Premium 57,899 NVCC like CM.PR.D, which has been Called for redemption October 31
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : -5.75 %
TD.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 57,750 Called for redemption October 31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 1.65 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 57,290 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
BNS.PR.Y FixedReset 54,870 TD crossed 49,300 at 24.02.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.01
Bid-YTW : 3.44 %
There were 24 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.90 – 23.22
Spot Rate : 0.3200
Average : 0.2208

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 5.72 %

BNS.PR.N Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.15 – 26.37
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1298

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.15
Bid-YTW : -3.38 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.20 – 24.45
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1667

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-30
Maturity Price : 23.81
Evaluated at bid price : 24.20
Bid-YTW : 5.10 %

IFC.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 23.70 – 24.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2182

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.70
Bid-YTW : 4.30 %

GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.60 – 23.90
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2260

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.60
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

IFC.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 25.49 – 25.72
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1560

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.49
Bid-YTW : 3.20 %

Market Action

September 29, 2014

I swear, I’m thinking about changing the name of this thing to RealEstateBlog! Whenever I post about real estate prices I get more responses than with respect to anything else. So, Garth Turner, look out!

Assiduous Reader prefhound sends me a clipping with the following assertions:

I conclude that a house is pretty much similar to a financial investment. Even today’s apparently “elevated” house prices seem reasonably similar to today’s “modest” long term future equity investment potential on an after-tax basis.

For example, at today’s house prices, buying a house for X dollars could generate a long run return of about 3% (tax free). I see this as coming from the sum of 4 components:
1. Cost of Property Tax – about 1% of X per year
2. Cost of Maintenance and Ongoing Renovations – about 3% per year. Some years are much lower and some much higher.
3. Long run Price Appreciation of property – about 3% per year if kept livable and up to standard. 3% = 2% inflation plus the long run salary growth due to 1% productivity gains.
4. Rent Savings of approximately 4% of the house value per year.

Add up these items (4% in costs; 7% in gains and savings) and the result is about 3% long run return.

Further, with a little help from a few educated estimates:

With my previous estimates of rents and competitive investment returns after tax (all smoothed to the same return every year – which is an approximation), I then compared the house owning scenario to a renting scenario where the total cash flows were the same, but any excess/shortfall went into/came from investments.

Remarkably, the renting scenario came out with a current investment asset worth about 96% of the current house value. The renting scenario was roughly financially equivalent to owning.

In the renting scenario we were saving a lot of money for the first 15 years, but then drawing down from savings to pay rent in recent years when maintenance was lower.

… and, provocatively:

Another aspect of this discussion is that houses seem like strip bond investments in an asset mix. This is especially true if there is no mortgage making home equity more volatile.

Perhaps asset mix discussions should consider a paid off house as a bond and a fully mortgaged house as equity, so that the fraction equity = current mortgage / value ratio. This may be sensible while working and continuously saving, but when retirement cash flows require drawing on investments, income generating financial fixed income becomes increasingly important.

So, like Assiduous Reader adrian2, prefhound is holding to the ‘house price proportional to inflation plus productivity’ argument.

While pondering this, and wondering why I didn’t become a real-estate analyst, I came across a paper by Peter Harrison titled MEDIAN WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES:

In 2008, Sharpe, Arsenault and Harrison attempted to explain why the median earnings of full-time, full-year workers in Canada rose only $53 dollars, from $41,348 (2005 dollars) in 1980 to $41,401 in 2005, while over the same period, total economy labour productivity gains were 37.4 per cent. They identified four key factors: measurement issues, rising earnings inequality, falling terms of trade of labour (the relationship between the prices workers receive for output and the cost of living), and falling labour share. That study in some sense raised more questions than it answered about the relationship between real wages and labour productivity. This research note expands on Sharpe, Arsenault, and Harrison (2008) in order to shed additional light on the relationship.

The guts of the matter is a very interesting table:

Earnings and Productivity Growth Gap (Compound Annual Growth Rates) Canada
(per cent)
United States (per cent)
Median real hourly wage 0.01 0.33
Labour productivity (Real output per hour) 1.27 1.73
Total Gap 1.26 1.40
Contribution to median real earnings and productivity gap Absolute (points) Relative (per cent) Absolute (points) Relative (per cent)
Inequality from median to average measure 0.35 27.6 0.63 45.1
Labour’s Terms of Trade: from CPI to GDP deflator 0.42 33.3 0.31 22.5
Supplementary Labour Income: from wage to total compensation 0.35 27.3 0.16 11.7
Labour Share of Nominal GDP 0.25 19.8 0.23 16.7
Other measurement issues -0.10 -7.9
Total – All Factors 1.26 100.0 1.34 95.9

This table is applicable to 1980-2005 which is to say from the tail-end of the inflationary period to the middle of the Great Moderation.

Ha! So where’s your productivity gains now, fellas? Admittedly, this analysis refers to the entire labour pool and I suspect that only the upper 60% of the labour pool really counts, but still, that’s a real eye opener. Like I always say, the means of production should controlled by the proletariat, held in trust by me.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 12bp, FixedResets off 6bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 2bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was absurdly low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4547 % 2,684.8
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,686 18.41 1 -0.8772 % 4,127.3
Floater 2.88 % 3.01 % 63,398 19.68 4 0.4547 % 2,776.3
OpRet 4.05 % 2.04 % 95,317 0.08 1 0.0000 % 2,729.2
SplitShare 4.29 % 3.65 % 99,414 3.88 5 0.0875 % 3,155.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,495.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.48 % 3.97 % 75,081 0.08 20 0.1900 % 2,445.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.29 % 5.18 % 101,126 15.11 16 0.1169 % 2,589.3
FixedReset 4.25 % 3.75 % 186,603 8.46 75 -0.0612 % 2,553.7
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 2.44 % 105,994 0.40 42 0.0200 % 2,561.8
FloatingReset 2.56 % 0.00 % 65,402 0.08 6 -0.1173 % 2,536.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.B FixedReset -1.37 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.34 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.15
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 104,293 RBC crossed 100,000 at 25.54.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.11 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 98,435 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 3.90 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 78,793 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.12
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 61,000 TD crossed 49,900 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 30,775 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 16,467 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 3.59 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.L FixedReset Quote: 24.70 – 25.10
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2782

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %

TRP.PR.B FixedReset Quote: 19.50 – 19.86
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2407

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 19.50
Evaluated at bid price : 19.50
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.28 – 22.64
Spot Rate : 0.3600
Average : 0.2663

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.28
Bid-YTW : 5.96 %

ENB.PR.J FixedReset Quote: 25.00 – 25.25
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1633

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 22.92 – 23.21
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2057

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 22.49
Evaluated at bid price : 22.92
Bid-YTW : 3.60 %

FTS.PR.J Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.51 – 23.79
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2089

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-29
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 23.51
Bid-YTW : 5.09 %

Market Action

September 26, 2014

On September 24, I mentioned bank account promotions in which depositors effectively received a lottery ticket for making a deposit – this is similar to premium bonds in the UK, but not government-backed. My attention has now been drawn to a more savory alternative:

VISIT an outlet of Chilango, a Mexican food chain in London, and you will be invited to “become part of the story”, not just by eating a burrito but by buying a “burrito bond”. These are four-year loans to the firm of at least £500 ($835), paying annual interest of 8%, along with a variable number of free burritos, depending on how much an individual lends. Helped by Crowdcube, a crowdfunding website, Chilango has already raised £1.8m in this way—80% more than its initial goal—from 585 bond-buyers.

In Britain “mini-bonds” are more loans than bonds, in that they are not tradable (elsewhere they are a less regulated version of conventional bonds). They let individuals lend money directly to small, unlisted businesses. They tend to pay well, albeit with lots of risks and quirks.

We’ll never get that here in Canada. Small, unlisted businesses don’t employ ex-regulators and are therefore beyond the Pale.

There may have been a a little progress made in the battle against bank hegemony:

The Canadian Securities Administrators (the CSA) recently announced that the operation of the CSA National Systems (SEDAR, SEDI and NRD) has been transferred as of January 13, 2014 from CDS INC. to CGI Information Systems and Management Consultants Inc. (CGI).

As a result, CDS INC. (through its affiliate CDS Innovations Inc.) is no longer the exclusive provider of SEDAR data feeds. The CSA will now become the direct provider of these data services to subscribers and data resellers. The services consist of the provision of Canadian public company data filed on SEDAR as well as investment fund data filings. The data is delivered in near real-time (i.e., shortly after the time when made publically available in SEDAR), and includes the original PDF formatted filing, a text conversion of the filed document, and a control file indicating changes in the status of filed information.

Customization of information content received (for example, filtering to receive only certain documents) will continue to be available.

Going forward, these SEDAR data services will be offered directly by the Alberta Securities Commission (ASC), in its capacity as the representative securities regulatory authority authorized to grant licenses and enter into agreements with third parties relating to the use of SEDAR data. SEDAR data services can also be obtained from value-added resellers who have been authorized by the ASC to provide the services.

In addition, data feeds of SEDI data or an organization’s NRD data are no longer delivered by CDS INC. or its affiliate CDS Innovations Inc. These services are now offered directly by the ASC, again in its capacity within the CSA as the representative securities regulatory authority authorized to grant licenses and enter into agreements with third parties relating to the use of SEDI data or NRD data.

SEDI data services consist of providing publicly available information on filings, holdings and transactions by insiders of Canadian public companies who are required to report such trades in SEDI. The SEDI system contains information on almost 50,000 insiders and 6,400 issuers, and averages 20,000 insider reports per month.

A registered firm may subscribe to NRD data services to receive a regular feed of its organization’s registered individuals and registration categories.

Should you have interest in or questions about the services noted above, or wish to become a value added reseller, please contact the CSA IT Systems Office at data-distribution-services@csa-acvm.ca

Regrettably, however, this public information is still not public:

Except as otherwise set out in these Terms of Use or unless you have a written agreement in effect with the ASC which states otherwise, you may only provide a hypertext link to this Web Site on another web site, provided that (a) the link is a text-only link clearly marked “SEDAR Home Page”; (b) the user must be linked directly to the URL http://www.sedar.com and not to any other pages within this Web Site; …

Huh. I’ll be writing the ASC and asking for permission to link to the secret public documents. Any bets on my success?

Assiduous Reader MP sends me a link – unlike youse other bums, who never send me NUTHIN’ – to the page for Andrew McCreath’s BNN show, which includes links to two interviews with Nicolas Normandeau, PM of HPR. The first is a competently performed exposition of preferred share basics, the second has a moment of interest when Mr. Normandeau explains his liking for bank-issued DeemedRetractibles. He also doesn’t like FixedResets with low Issue Reset Spreads and claims to have positioned the fund for a modest upwards parallel shift in market yields. Mr. Normandeau works for Fiera, which is controlled by National Bank, as discussed on March 4, 2013.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts off 3bp, FixedResets up 7bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 2bp. Volatility was nonexistent. Volume was very extremely awfully low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.3980 % 2,672.7
FixedFloater 4.17 % 3.43 % 24,483 18.49 1 0.7958 % 4,163.9
Floater 2.89 % 3.02 % 64,020 19.67 4 -0.3980 % 2,763.8
OpRet 4.05 % 1.63 % 95,951 0.08 1 0.0395 % 2,729.2
SplitShare 4.29 % 3.83 % 100,607 3.89 5 0.0716 % 3,152.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0395 % 2,495.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.49 % 1.81 % 75,065 0.09 20 0.0828 % 2,440.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.19 % 105,033 15.13 16 -0.0271 % 2,586.3
FixedReset 4.25 % 3.80 % 187,613 8.43 75 0.0678 % 2,555.3
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 2.43 % 106,290 0.26 42 0.0190 % 2,561.3
FloatingReset 2.58 % -1.43 % 67,870 0.08 6 0.1239 % 2,539.6
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
No individual gains or losses exceeding 1%!
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 197,730 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-26
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 25.00
Bid-YTW : 4.27 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 84,100 Desjardins crossed 79,000 at 24.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-26
Maturity Price : 22.96
Evaluated at bid price : 24.09
Bid-YTW : 4.15 %
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium 68,309 Nesbitt crossed 65,000 at 25.52.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.50
Bid-YTW : -7.41 %
GWO.PR.L Deemed-Retractible 52,500 Desjardins crossed 11,800 at 25.89. RBC crossed 40,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.90
Bid-YTW : 4.75 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 46,950 RBC crossed 37,500 at 26.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %
BAM.PR.K Floater 44,960 Nesbitt crossed 40,000 at 17.25.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-26
Maturity Price : 17.26
Evaluated at bid price : 17.26
Bid-YTW : 3.04 %
There were 12 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 20.42 – 21.11
Spot Rate : 0.6900
Average : 0.4710

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-26
Maturity Price : 20.42
Evaluated at bid price : 20.42
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %

GWO.PR.H Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.71 – 24.06
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2487

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.71
Bid-YTW : 5.54 %

RY.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.56 – 25.84
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.1794

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-11-24
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.56
Bid-YTW : -0.49 %

POW.PR.A Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.15 – 25.38
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1398

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-26
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : -5.16 %

MFC.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 26.17 – 26.40
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1447

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-03-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.17
Bid-YTW : 2.69 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.25 – 25.49
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1661

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %

Market Action

September 25, 2014

Michael Lewis – whose book, Flash Boys, is a favourite target for mockery on PrefBlog – had some sharp observations:

Technology entrepreneurship will never have the power to displace big Wall Street banks in the central nervous system of America’s youth, in part because tech entrepreneurship requires the practitioner to have an original idea, or at least to know something about computers, but also because entrepreneurship doesn’t offer the sort of people who wind up at elite universities what a lot of them obviously crave: status certainty.

“I’m going to Goldman,” is still about as close as it gets in the real world to “I’m going to Harvard,” at least for the fiercely ambitious young person who is ambitious to do nothing in particular.

I don’t agree with many of his other assertions in the piece, but I liked that bit!

Eddy Elfenbein of the blog Crossing Wall Street reminds us that a house is just an asset:

Some trader right now is investing in, say, copper. I wish them well. But remember that copper has no independent value. By itself, it’s just an element. Not to get too philosophical, but copper’s entire value is based on what it can do for us. What are the goods and services it can enhance? For that to happen, copper needs to pass though the hands of a business.

This is why long-term studies of what’s been the best investment usually have stocks at the top, followed by bonds and real estate followed by commodities. When you’re investing in a company, you’re really investing in human ingenuity—the way that people can come together and figure out how to make something useful from those assets.

Real estate, for example, is a nice investment. I hope everyone owns their own home. But in the long run, real estate will never, ever, ever, ever outpace stocks. Never. This isn’t just my opinion, it’s reality. It won’t happen because it can’t happen.

A house is simply an asset. No matter how hard it tries, it will never be anything more than an asset. A house does its job by just sitting there. But a stock is different. A stock is part ownership in a corporation. A corporation is people using assets to create wealth. This ain’t just a matter of definitions.

A house’s return cannot exceed inflation over the long term – who would be able to buy it? However, things over the short term can be different, and the short-term can quite possibly exceed one’s lifespan. At present, Canadian house prices are rocketing upwards and have done so for a very long time; part of the recent rise has been interest rates; longer term it has been both a revaluation (in real terms, not just nominal) of the value of having a place to live in the city, whether the city is Toronto, Vancouver or Calgary; and part of it, I think, is due to income inequality. House prices are based not on the average wage of all Canadians, but on the average wage of those Canadians who can afford to buy houses.

My personal view is that a house is just a place to live. But I do know quite a few people who consider them to be investments and buy extra ones for rental purposes. Part of this is risk-aversion; while house prices can and do decline, they rarely decline by as much as equities did during the Credit Crunch. Part of this is wilful blindness; you don’t get a monthly statement from your real-estate broker giving you a solid idea of what you could get for your house if you sold it that day. Part of this is a question of control: renting out houses or speculating on them is something that you can do yourself, without any of the agency problems involved in giving your broker some money to invest on your behalf in companies run by other people, which will be valued by a third set of people. And part of it is … what if I’m wrong?

US public pensions are going to cost a lot:

The 25 largest U.S. public pensions face about $2 trillion in unfunded liabilities, showing that investment returns can’t keep up with ballooning obligations, according to Moody’s Investors Service.

The 25 biggest systems by assets averaged a 7.45 percent return from 2004 to 2013, close to the expected 7.65 percent rate, Moody’s said in a report released today. Yet the New York-based credit rater’s calculation of liabilities tripled in the eight years through 2012, according to the report.

“Despite the robust investment returns since 2004, annual growth in unfunded pension liabilities has outstripped these returns,” Moody’s said. “This growth is due to inadequate pension contributions, stemming from a variety of actuarial and funding practices, as well as the sheer growth of pension liabilities as benefit accruals accelerate with the passage of time, salary increases and additional years of service.”

Here’s a milestone: Government Motors is investment grade:

General Motors Co. (GM), five years after emerging from a government-backed bankruptcy, was returned to investment grade by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services.

S&P upgraded the biggest U.S. automaker to BBB- from BB+ today, citing progress in Europe, healthy cash flow and limited reputational and market share damage as a result of the company’s record recalls. The ratings outlook is stable.

It was a poor day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts losing 32bp, FixedResets off 8bp and DeemedRetractibles down 10bp. Volatility was low. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.2339 % 2,683.4
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,517 18.43 1 0.0885 % 4,131.0
Floater 2.88 % 3.01 % 59,274 19.70 4 0.2339 % 2,774.8
OpRet 4.05 % 1.98 % 96,865 0.08 1 -0.0790 % 2,728.2
SplitShare 4.30 % 3.86 % 104,242 3.89 5 -0.1412 % 3,150.4
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0790 % 2,494.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.49 % 2.33 % 74,457 0.09 20 -0.0989 % 2,438.8
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.20 % 105,920 15.13 16 -0.3184 % 2,587.0
FixedReset 4.25 % 3.81 % 187,683 8.43 75 -0.0796 % 2,553.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 2.22 % 105,314 0.41 42 -0.0989 % 2,560.8
FloatingReset 2.58 % -2.37 % 70,136 0.08 6 -0.1498 % 2,536.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.C FixedReset -1.45 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 21.39
Evaluated at bid price : 21.70
Bid-YTW : 3.83 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.33 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 21.27
Evaluated at bid price : 21.56
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 267,530 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 87,196 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
POW.PR.C Perpetual-Premium 70,500 Scotia crossed 25,000 at 25.23; TD crossed 19,900 at the same price; Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at the same price again.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-25
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.20
Bid-YTW : -7.62 %
MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 49,454 TD crossed 40,000 at 22.73.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %
HSE.PR.A FixedReset 35,756 Nesbitt crossed 25,000 at 22.92.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 22.50
Evaluated at bid price : 22.90
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
POW.PR.B Perpetual-Premium 34,843 Nesbitt crossed 30,000 at 24.85.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 24.57
Evaluated at bid price : 24.83
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %
There were 23 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.34 – 25.91
Spot Rate : 0.5700
Average : 0.4118

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.34
Bid-YTW : -0.36 %

SLF.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 21.82 – 22.13
Spot Rate : 0.3100
Average : 0.1968

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.82
Bid-YTW : 4.76 %

BAM.PF.E FixedReset Quote: 24.61 – 24.95
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2508

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 22.99
Evaluated at bid price : 24.61
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %

IAG.PR.A Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.92 – 23.25
Spot Rate : 0.3300
Average : 0.2410

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.92
Bid-YTW : 5.70 %

W.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.02 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.2800
Average : 0.2050

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-25
Maturity Price : 24.80
Evaluated at bid price : 25.02
Bid-YTW : 5.60 %

MFC.PR.G FixedReset Quote: 25.81 – 26.01
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1337

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.81
Bid-YTW : 2.94 %

Market Action

September 24, 2014

PIMCO’s in some kind of trouble with the SEC:

Pacific Investment Management Co. said it’s cooperating with regulators examining how the firm assigned asset prices at Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return ETF.

“Pimco has been cooperating with the SEC in this non-public matter, and we take our regulatory obligations and responsibilities to our clients very seriously,” Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, said in an e-mailed statement. “We believe our pricing procedures are entirely appropriate and in keeping with industry best-practices.”

“What they’re being accused of is in fact the industry standard accounting process,” Dave Nadig, the chief investment officer at ETF.com, a San Francisco-based ETF research and analysis firm, said in a telephone interview.

By law, fund managers have to come up with a price, either by asking dealers for quotes or by extrapolating from data points such as credit rating, size, structure, and comparable securities, Nadig said.

“Because Pimco is an 800-pound gorilla, they negotiate a really good price,” he said. “If the SEC wants to change how bonds are priced, then they can do that, but that’s going to change everybody.”

The ETF attributed some of its outperformance against its benchmark to “an allocation to non-Agency mortgages which benefited from limited supply and a recovery in the housing sector,” according to the latest quarterly report on its website.

Kirsten Grind, Gregory Zuckerman and Jean Eaglesham of the Wall Street Journal explain:

The investments believed to be in question, such as small amounts of mortgage securities—or "odd lots" in the terminology of the financial markets—tend to receive lower prices because of their small sizes or because they are backed by smaller institutions, among other factors.

After the launch of the ETF, Wall Street traders were encouraged by Pimco to offer these small securities to the Pimco ETF, according to some of the people familiar with the matter. Mortgage bonds with a relatively small $500,000 face amount, for example, might have sold for only $480,000, because few investors wanted them, due to the small size.

But when Pimco, shortly after purchasing the bonds, placed a value on them, it typically used outside pricing companies that often assigned higher valuations because they used a similar, but much larger, pool of mortgage bonds to compare them with, according to people close to the firm. Placing a $500,000 valuation on a bond purchased for $480,000, for example, would have allowed Pimco to claim a quick 4% gain on the $500,000 bond, or $20,000.

If that maneuver happened with enough bonds, early results of the ETF could have been aided, these people say.

Traders say buying discounted bonds, then using an outside ratings company to place a higher valuation on those bonds, is akin to buying a used car on the cheap because it is in poor shape but having a lender rely on the list price when making a loan.

Matt Levine of Bloomberg points out:

The point of a bond ETF is, in large part, to make the illiquid liquid: to make it easy for small investors to buy and sell diversified bond portfolios in small sizes. The point of the ETF structure, on the other hand, is to use the market to prevent mispricing: The market in the underlying acts as a check on the valuation of the fund. And the point of the bond market sometimes seems to be to slice credit into tiny weird units that trade in idiosyncratic ways and reward cleverness. Those three things don’t really go together. It sounds like the SEC’s worry is that Pimco’s ETF made the illiquid liquid, but at the cost of losing the check on its valuation. Which then provided idiosyncratic opportunities to reward cleverness.

It’s a complex story, and not completely apparent that anything wrong is happening. It is quite well known that investors (even retail investors!) can make very good returns simply by asking their salesman to alert them to any strange odd-lots the brokerage might have hanging around. Brokerages will often provide liquidity for transferable GICs, for instance, by offering a really, really crumby price – like 150bp over market yield. They’ll then sell it for 100bp over market yield, recouping their costs while giving the ultimate buyer a great deal on his GIC … provided he doesn’t mind buying some weird dollar value of GIC with a basically random maturity date. But when you do that as part of an ETF … complications ensue.

But I will point out that a large fund (such as anything run by PIMCO!) might quite rationally take a long view … buy enough discounted small lots of the same issue and eventually that discount is no longer applicable.

But perhaps a new way of potentially scoring excess returns is coming!

With interest rates barely above zero, the typical U.S. savings account has all the excitement of, well, waiting in line at the bank. But what if instead of marketing yet another CD or credit card, banks held raffles and gave millions away each month to savers? The local bank might feel less like the villain behind those big overdraft fees and more like a casino on the Vegas strip.

A bank in South Africa tried this in 2005. The First National Bank’s Million-a-Month Account promised savers a chance to win 113 prizes a month, including a grand prize of 1 million South African rand (about U.S.$150,000 at the time). Within 18 months, the bank had more prize-eligible accounts than regular ones. These new customers, many of them poor, saved an extra 1 percent of their incomes, a recent study found, and boosted their overall saving 38 percent.

The only thing preventing a big bank from doing this in the U.S.: It’s completely illegal. A bill in Congress — which passed the U.S. House of Representatives on Sept. 16 — would change the law. If it’s passed by the U.S. Senate in the next few months and signed by President Barack Obama, banks of all sizes could start tempting savers with “savings promotion raffles.”

In the U.S., federal law already lets credit unions offer prizes to savers, as long as states are okay with it. The Save-To-Win game, started in Michigan in 2009, is available at credit unions in four states. In Michigan, every $25 saved increases the chance that a customer could win dozens of monthly prizes worth up to $3,750, or six $10,000 grand prizes each year. So far, more than 50,000 people have saved more than $94 million through the game.

The fun of competing for prizes does get more people saving, the studies of the South African and Save-To-Win experiments suggest. And low-income people especially benefit from this extra cushion of cash. A quarter of Americans tell researcher they’re certain they’d have no way to come up with $2,000 in the next month.

In a paper titled International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada, Tatjana Dahlhaus, Kristina Hess and Abeer Reza claim:

The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. We assess the international spillover effects of this quantitative easing program on the Canadian economy in a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) framework, by considering a counterfactual scenario in which the Federal Reserve’s long-term asset holdings do not rise in response to the recession. We find that U.S. quantitative easing boosted Canadian output, mainly through the financial channel.

Standard economic theory, however, provides ambiguous implications for the international spillover of monetary easing (Rogoff [2002]). Through the expenditure-switching effect, a monetary expansion in the United States would depreciate the home currency and deteriorate its terms of trade, making home goods cheaper for foreigners. The resulting increase in home country net exports would then detract from the real output of the foreign economy. The income-absorption effect, on the other hand, implies that as long as expansionary monetary policy in the home country drives up domestic income, home demand for imports would rise, boosting the economy of foreign exporters. Finally, in the presence of global financial market integration, any increase in asset prices and reductions in yields in the domestic financial market resulting from QE may be reflected by similar movements in corresponding foreign financial market variables,2 which in turn would boost foreign consumption and investment through the same mechanism as it does in the domestic case. Therefore, whether Canada benefits from the U.S. expansion through QE depends on which of these effects dominate, and is an empirical question that we attempt to answer here.

R Split III Corp., proud issuer of RBS.PR.B was confirmed by DBRS at Pfd-2:

On September 24, 2013, DBRS upgraded the ratings on the Preferred Shares to Pfd-2 from Pfd-2 (low) based on the increased downside protection levels available to holders of the Preferred Shares over the prior year, as well as the increase in distribution coverage ratio. Since the rating was upgraded, the net asset value of the Company has generally been increasing steadily, rising from $43.55 on September 12, 2013, to $54.22 on September 11, 2014. Downside protection available to holders of the Preferred Shares increased to 74.9% as of September 11, 2014, compared to 68.8% on September 12, 2013. In addition, RBC raised its dividends twice this year, on February 26, 2014, and most recently on August 22, 2014, increasing quarterly distributions to 75 cents per share from 67 cents per share. This dividend boost increases the Preferred Share distribution coverage ratio to 2.9 times (up from 2.6 times in September 2013). The confirmation of the rating of the Preferred Shares is based primarily on the current level of downside protection available and the current distribution coverage ratio.

With a market capitalization of less than $10MM, RBS.PR.B is not tracked by HIMIPref™.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts rocketing up 34bp (more than half of this was due to strength in three BAM issues), FixedResets off 1bp and DeemedRetractibles down 4bp. Volatility was good, highlighted by winning BAM PerpetualDiscounts. Volume was below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.5655 % 2,677.1
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,694 18.43 1 0.0000 % 4,127.3
Floater 2.88 % 3.00 % 59,989 19.71 4 0.5655 % 2,768.3
OpRet 4.04 % 0.40 % 97,480 0.08 1 0.1185 % 2,730.3
SplitShare 4.29 % 3.76 % 108,617 3.89 5 -0.0873 % 3,154.8
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.1185 % 2,496.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 2.66 % 87,359 0.08 20 0.0531 % 2,441.2
Perpetual-Discount 5.26 % 5.17 % 102,777 15.15 16 0.3439 % 2,595.3
FixedReset 4.25 % 3.80 % 183,208 8.43 75 -0.0098 % 2,555.6
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.64 % 109,355 0.27 42 -0.0390 % 2,563.3
FloatingReset 2.58 % -2.37 % 70,680 0.08 6 0.0718 % 2,540.3
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset -4.80 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset -1.05 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 23.11
Evaluated at bid price : 24.60
Bid-YTW : 3.81 %
BAM.PR.N Perpetual-Discount 1.09 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 21.25
Evaluated at bid price : 21.25
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
BAM.PF.C Perpetual-Discount 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 21.28
Evaluated at bid price : 21.57
Bid-YTW : 5.64 %
BAM.PR.C Floater 1.51 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 17.45
Evaluated at bid price : 17.45
Bid-YTW : 3.00 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount 1.77 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 21.55
Evaluated at bid price : 21.86
Bid-YTW : 5.62 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 152,616 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 31,900, both at 25.29; RBC crossed 30,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 23.25
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : 3.82 %
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 121,195 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.97
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 97,020 RBC crossed blocks of 20,000 and 62,700, both at 26.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.27
Bid-YTW : 2.38 %
RY.PR.H FixedReset 51,421 TD crossed 25,000 at 25.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-08-24
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.28
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
ENB.PR.D FixedReset 50,469 TD crossed 42,600 at 24.16.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 22.98
Evaluated at bid price : 24.15
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 41,170 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.15
Bid-YTW : 4.00 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
TRP.PR.D FixedReset Quote: 23.58 – 25.18
Spot Rate : 1.6000
Average : 0.9276

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-24
Maturity Price : 22.61
Evaluated at bid price : 23.58
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %

HSB.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 25.30 – 25.92
Spot Rate : 0.6200
Average : 0.3952

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-12-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 0.24 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.04 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1838

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.04
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.16 – 26.45
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2300

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.16
Bid-YTW : 4.81 %

POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.11 – 26.31
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1435

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 4.78 %

SLF.PR.D Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.38 – 22.54
Spot Rate : 0.1600
Average : 0.1045

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.38
Bid-YTW : 5.84 %

Market Action

September 24, 2014

RBC issued sub-debt at 3.45%+112:

Royal Bank of Canada (RY on TSX and NYSE) today announced an offering of $1 billion of subordinated debentures (“the Notes”) through its Canadian Medium Term Note Program.

The Notes bear interest at a fixed rate of 3.45 per cent per annum (paid semi-annually) until September 29, 2021, and at the three-month Banker’s Acceptance Rate plus 1.12 per cent thereafter until their maturity on September 29, 2026 (paid quarterly). The expected closing date is September 29, 2014. RBC Capital Markets is acting as lead agent on the issue.

The bank may, at its option, with the prior approval of the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions Canada, redeem the Notes on or after September 29, 2021 at par, in whole at any time or in part from time to time, on not less than 30 days and not more than 60 days notice to registered holders.

Net proceeds from this transaction will be used for general business purposes.

Rumblings about corporate bond liquidity are getting more frequent:

Index fund managers are finding it hard to secure the bonds they need at the prices they want, forcing them to make trade-offs that can hurt investors and leave managers vulnerable in a market downturn.

Bond liquidity has all but dried up for corporate issues after new regulations and capital requirements forced Wall Street banks to slash their inventories of fixed-income products following the financial crisis. That’s especially challenging for index fund managers who must acquire certain bonds to be able to track specific benchmarks.

The lack of liquidity also means funds may have trouble selling bonds in the event interest rates rise and the investors who have sunk about $1.2-trillion (U.S.) in net deposits into long-term bond funds since the end of 2004 head for the exits.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is examining whether exchange-traded funds pose a risk to the global financial system for precisely that reason, according to the Bank of Canada’s representative to the committee at the Bank for International Settlements.

“There’s been investments and positions taken that may not have the liquidity there that people expect, especially as interest rates start to normalize,” Carolyn Wilkins, senior deputy governor at Canada’s central bank, told Bloomberg News in an interview. “So the liquidity illusion, if you want to put it that way, is something that we’re worried about.”

I certainly hope she was misquoted in the Bloomberg story regarding that interview:

The efforts of the Basel Committee are helping to restore faith in the financial system, Wilkins said.

“People are going to have the knowledge that the banks not only in Canada, but globally are safer,” she said. “That means that the probability of something going wrong that they’ll be on the hook for later as taxpayers will be lower.”

While additional regulatory requirements may translate into extra transaction costs for the banks and businesses and customers they deal with, “those costs should be worth it because they’re reducing the chances that something goes pear shaped,” she said.

Well, of course there are benefits to increased capital levels, although I don’t have quite the same certainty with respect to some regulatory requirements. And anybody will agree there are costs. The hard part is – and what has been consistently ignored by OSFI, the Bank of Canada, and every apparatchik in the apparatus – is balancing the two. We have a very safe banking system in Canada – and it has come at the expense of innovation and economic growth.

Market Action

September 23, 2014

What job do you look for when you’re an unemployed Master of the Universe?

As trading in dollar-denominated bonds declined 22 percent in the past five years to an average daily $809 billion, so have the jobs, leaving even some of the most senior traders and salesmen moving from firm to firm. Dozens of journeymen are populating an industry that used to attract the young in throngs, lured by money and prestige, according to Michael Maloney, president of fixed-income recruiting firm Michael P. Maloney Inc.

“The business model is broken and 50 percent of the people in our world who are in trading are stuck right now,” Maloney said in an interview in his New York office.

While the size of the U.S. bond market ballooned by more than $5 trillion since 2008 to $37.8 trillion at year-end, trading in the debt has slumped, according to data from the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association. Average daily turnover fell to $809 billion last year from $1.04 trillion in 2008.

That’s partly because banks have pulled back from making markets in bonds as higher capital requirements make it less profitable. The business — where buyers and sellers are primarily matched over the telephone or through e-mails — has also suffered shrinking margins because of regulator-mandated price transparency and the rise of electronic trading.

Transaction costs declined after the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority introduced its bond-price reporting system, called Trace, in 2002. Wall Street bond traders lost about $1 billion in fees in the next year, or about $2,000 a trade, according to a study in the Journal of Financial Economics. The system is intended to provide transparency in an opaque market, and help prevent investors from being fleeced.

The number of credit traders working for the firms plunged 30 percent to about 300 over the same period, even as companies issued record amounts of bonds in the U.S. to take advantage of historically low interest rates, according to Options Group and data compiled by Bloomberg.

The ‘broken’ corporate bond market was also discussed yesterday.

Now, never let it be thought that I consider secondary market trading to be an important thing in and of itself. Secondary market trading is important only insofar as it affects the issuance market, because the purpose of the corporate bond market is exactly the same as that of the equities market: to transfer money from sources of capital to sinks, to be returned (with luck!) as an income stream from the real-world investment that’s done with the money. And issuance in recent years has been monstrous in the past few years so, we might rashly conclude – no problem!

However, as has been pointed out by Ron Mendel of Hartford Investment Management in his admirable essay Private Placement Debt: Diversification, yield potential in a complementary IG asset:

Private placement investors require additional yield relative to comparable public bond issues, as lenders demand greater yield to compensate for increased liquidity risk as well as the underwriting and monitoring costs. This premium is variable over time and is a function of technical, supply and demand characteristics, credit fundamentals and insurance liability requirements. The typical liquidity premium historically ranges between 25 – 45 basis points.

That’s a hell of a spread, although not as much as we get in the Canadian preferred share market! It will also be noted that this is the rate in an environment comprised largely of insurance companies; other investment entities, including individuals, are probably going to want a bigger premium for giving up liquidity. Additionally, the ability to issue corporate debt has not yet been tested in an environment of increasing policy rates or general doom and gloom (after the extraordinary gloom and doom of the credit crunch, anyway).

A lack of secondary market liquidity will ultimately increase spreads at issuance and will therefore harm the economy, hurting workers; in addition, the economic harm will be mitigated to some extent by lower policy rates, hurting savers. This is just a mess all ’round.

On a brighter note, King Timmy is unconcerned about the inversion clampdown:

Scott Bonikowsky, a Tim Hortons spokesman, said the deal is “moving forward as planned” and is driven by long-term growth and not tax benefits. The actions to curb inversions announced yesterday by Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew are getting an immediate test as eight U.S. companies with pending deals decide whether to move forward.

It was a modestly negative day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 13bp, FixedResets off 10bp and DeemedRetractibles flat. Volatility was low. Volume was slightly below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.9187 % 2,662.0
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,761 18.43 1 -0.0442 % 4,127.3
Floater 2.90 % 3.02 % 58,479 19.67 4 0.9187 % 2,752.8
OpRet 4.05 % 1.71 % 98,734 0.08 1 0.0000 % 2,727.1
SplitShare 4.29 % 3.64 % 108,735 3.90 5 0.2187 % 3,157.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0000 % 2,493.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.48 % 2.49 % 86,612 0.08 20 0.0670 % 2,439.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.28 % 5.17 % 101,734 15.16 16 -0.1271 % 2,586.4
FixedReset 4.25 % 3.80 % 182,022 8.48 75 -0.1004 % 2,555.8
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 2.00 % 112,993 0.27 42 -0.0010 % 2,564.3
FloatingReset 2.58 % -2.37 % 81,385 0.08 6 0.0392 % 2,538.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
CIU.PR.C FixedReset -1.67 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %
BAM.PR.B Floater 1.58 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 17.35
Evaluated at bid price : 17.35
Bid-YTW : 3.02 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
ENB.PF.G FixedReset 489,453 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 23.10
Evaluated at bid price : 24.96
Bid-YTW : 4.28 %
SLF.PR.G FixedReset 155,672 Nesbitt crossed 150,000 at 21.90.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.92
Bid-YTW : 4.70 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 116,552 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.17
Bid-YTW : 3.98 %
ENB.PF.E FixedReset 56,975 YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 23.14
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
TD.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 56,112 Scotia crossed 51,700 at 25.27.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 1.35 %
IFC.PR.C FixedReset 38,942 RBC crossed 29,900 at 25.54.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.48
Bid-YTW : 3.19 %
There were 27 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.39 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.6100
Average : 0.4367

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.39
Bid-YTW : 4.60 %

CIU.PR.C FixedReset Quote: 20.55 – 21.00
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3222

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 20.55
Evaluated at bid price : 20.55
Bid-YTW : 3.80 %

BAM.PR.G FixedFloater Quote: 22.60 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.4000
Average : 0.2927

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 22.67
Evaluated at bid price : 22.60
Bid-YTW : 3.46 %

PWF.PR.S Perpetual-Discount Quote: 23.90 – 24.09
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1314

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 23.54
Evaluated at bid price : 23.90
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %

PWF.PR.P FixedReset Quote: 23.00 – 23.24
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1885

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 22.56
Evaluated at bid price : 23.00
Bid-YTW : 3.66 %

POW.PR.B Perpetual-Premium Quote: 24.82 – 24.97
Spot Rate : 0.1500
Average : 0.1051

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-23
Maturity Price : 24.57
Evaluated at bid price : 24.82
Bid-YTW : 5.39 %

Market Action

September 22, 2014

I have often railed against the high cost of university education nowadays, blaming it largely on the huge increase in the number of university administrators, which results in mission creep (see March 6, 2014). I can’t find my post where I talked about the increase in administrative costs, but just so you know I’m not blowing smoke … Where all that money is going:

Shockingly, 20 cents is now spent on central administration for every dollar spent on instruction and non-sponsored research; back in 1987-88, 12 cents went to administration. At the average top 25 university, central administration (including external relations) now consumes $18 million that previously would have flowed to instruction. (For a G13 school, it’s $20 million; for the top 5, $39 million.)

… and Administrator Hiring Drove 28% Boom in Higher-Ed Work Force, Report Says:

The report, “Labor Intensive or Labor Expensive: Changing Staffing and Compensation Patterns in Higher Education,” says that new administrative positions—particularly in student services—drove a 28-percent expansion of the higher-ed work force from 2000 to 2012. The report was released by the Delta Cost Project, a nonprofit, nonpartisan social-science organization whose researchers analyze college finances.

What’s more, the report says, the number of full-time faculty and staff members per professional or managerial administrator has declined 40 percent, to around 2.5 to 1.

… and Administrators Ate My Tuition:

Between 1975 and 2005, total spending by American higher educational institutions, stated in constant dollars, tripled, to more than $325 billion per year. Over the same period, the faculty-to-student ratio has remained fairly constant, at approximately fifteen or sixteen students per instructor. One thing that has changed, dramatically, is the administrator-per-student ratio. In 1975, colleges employed one administrator for every eighty-four students and one professional staffer—admissions officers, information technology specialists, and the like—for every fifty students. By 2005, the administrator-to-student ratio had dropped to one administrator for every sixty-eight students while the ratio of professional staffers had dropped to one for every twenty-one students.

To be fair to the universities, mission creep isn’t entirely their own idea – it’s pushed by politicians:

A group of lawmakers is pressuring U.S. News & World Report to update its influential college ranking system to indicate which universities have come under fire for failing to adequately handle sexual assault cases on campus. The rankings are currently based on a range of academic indicators, like SAT scores and graduation rates.

I also understand – although I confess I can’t find the reference – that some of these policy changes come from a desire to appeal to parents of prospective students, who for some reason think they should have a say in the choice of school.

Anyway, the story that caught my attention was on Bloomberg, College Debt Leaves Generation X Grads Less Wealthy Than Parents:

While 82 percent of Generation X Americans with at least a bachelor’s degree earn more than their parents did, just 30 percent have greater wealth. A smaller share of workers without college education — 70 percent — have surpassed their parents’ incomes yet almost half had higher wealth, according to a Pew Charitable Trusts report released today.

Lackluster saving among the cohort, those born between 1965 and 1980, has come as student-loan balances persist into middle age. Generation X’s financial straits could come with economic aftershocks, making it difficult for parents to afford college for the next generation and forcing workers to hold onto jobs longer or lower their living standards as they age.

People between the ages of 30 and 39 held about $321 billion in total student debt at the end of 2012, up from about $124 billion at the start of 2005, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Those between 40 and 49 owed $168 billion, up from $53 billion.

This is all based on a study from the PEW Charitable Trusts titled A New Financial Reality:

•• Most Gen Xers have higher family incomes than their parents did at the same age, but only one-third have greater family wealth. Three-quarters of Gen Xers have higher family incomes than their parents did, earning a median of $43,000 annually, after adjusting for family size. However, just 36 percent of Gen Xers have exceeded their parents’ family wealth, and the typical Gen Xer has $5,000 less wealth than their parents did at the same age.

•• Gen Xers’ lower wealth is due in part to their debt totals, which are nearly six times higher than their
parents’ were at the same age.
Nearly all Gen Xers report holding student loan, medical, credit card, or other debt, with a median of more than $7,000. In contrast, their parents held just over $1,000 in debt at the same point in their lives.

•• Generation X has experienced exceptional stickiness at the top and bottom of the income ladder. Among Gen Xers raised at the bottom of the income ladder, half remain stuck there and nearly three-quarters never reach the middle. There is similar stickiness at the top: Nearly 7 in 10 Gen Xers who are on the top income rung in their 30s were raised by parents who were also above the middle in their 30s.

•• The persistent stickiness at both ends of the income ladder for Gen Xers is linked to sharp demographic differences. Among Gen Xers stuck at the bottom of the income ladder, median wealth, excluding home equity, is less than $800, more than half are single, and only 2 percent have a college education. In contrast, of Gen Xers who were born in and remain at the top, 83 percent are part of a couple, 71 percent have a college education, and all have more than $69,000 in non-home-equity wealth.

•• Gen Xers whose family wealth exceeds that of their parents also far surpass their peers in wealth holdings. Gen Xers who are upwardly wealth-mobile—that is, they have more wealth than their parents did at the same age—have nearly nine times the non-home-equity wealth of their peers who have less wealth than their parents and more than three times that of the typical Gen Xer.

•• Among Gen Xers who have exceeded their parents’ income, those with college degrees are less likely to surpass their parents’ wealth, mostly due to student loan debt. Nearly 4 in 10 Gen Xers who have college degrees and have more income than their parents did hold student loan debt, with a median amount owed of $25,000.

OSFI has released its Public Disclosure Requirements related to Basel III Leverage Ratio:

4. Disclosure requirements for D-SIBs

The disclosure requirements set out in the BCBS LR Framework, require D-SIBs to publicly disclose:

  • I. Summary comparison table – D-SIBs are required to report the reconciliation of their balance sheet assets from their financial statements with the leverage ratio exposure measure, using the attached Reporting Table 1 in the Annex I.
  • ii. Common disclosure template – D-SIBs are required to provide a breakdown of the main leverage ratio regulatory elements, using the attached Reporting Table 2 in the Annex I.

    OSFI requires D-SIBs to report the LR using both the transitional measure of Tier 1 capital and the all-in measure of Tier 1 capital. Lines 1 to 22 of this template are based on the Basel transitional LR. Lines 23 to 26 should be used to report the all-in LR.

  • iii. Reconciliation with public financial statements – D-SIBs are required to disclose the source of material differences between their total balance sheet assets (net of on-balance sheet derivative and securities financing transaction (SFT) assets) as reported in their financial statements and their on-balance sheet exposures in line 1 of the common disclosure template.
  • iv. Other – D-SIBs are required to explain the key drivers of material changes in their Basel III leverage ratio observed from the end of the previous reporting period to the end of the current reporting period (whether the changes stem from changes in the numerator and/or from changes in the denominator).

The SEC has triumphantly declared a milestone in its assault on ethics:

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced an expected award of more than $30 million to a whistleblower who provided key original information that led to a successful SEC enforcement action.

The award will be the largest made by the SEC’s whistleblower program to date and the fourth award to a whistleblower living in a foreign country, demonstrating the program’s international reach.

“This whistleblower came to us with information about an ongoing fraud that would have been very difficult to detect,” said Andrew Ceresney, Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “This record-breaking award sends a strong message about our commitment to whistleblowers and the value they bring to law enforcement.”

That’s right, folks! You, too, can obtain multi-generational wealth by sneaking up to your bedroom at midnight, drawing the blinds, taking your ‘phone under the bed and denouncing your colleagues to the authorities! Sadly, the SEC did not state whether or not each whistleblower receives a shiny new “Junior Secret Policeman” badge.

Many investors long for a return to the days when they could get a two or three percent real return from T-Bills. ‘Don’t hold your breath’, says Rhys R. Mendes in a Bank of Canada discussion paper titled The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada:

A measure of the neutral policy interest rate can be used to gauge the stance of monetary policy. We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated. This is a medium- to longer-run concept of the neutral rate. Under this definition, the neutral rate in Canada is determined by the longer-run forces that influence savings and investment in both the Canadian and global economies. Structural forces have likely reduced the neutral rate by more than a percentage point since the mid-2000s. The Bank’s estimates of the real neutral policy rate currently stand in the 1 to 2 per cent range, or 3 to 4 per cent in nominal terms. The current gap between the policy rate and the neutral rate reflects policy stimulus in response to significant excess supply and in the face of continuing headwinds. As long as these headwinds persist, a policy rate below neutral will be required to maintain inflation sustainably at target.

We define the neutral rate as the real policy rate consistent with output at its potential level and inflation equal to the 2 per cent target after the effects of all cyclical shocks have dissipated. This is a medium- to long-run concept which varies over time with lower-frequency factors such as demographic change and shifts in trend productivity growth. The deviation of the actual policy rate from neutral – the interest rate gap – is a measure of the stance of monetary policy.

The Bank’s estimates of this concept of the neutral policy rate currently stand in the range of 1 to 2 per cent in real terms, or 3 to 4 per cent in nominal terms. This range reflects the range of estimates from the various approaches discussed in this paper. Thus, with the nominal policy rate currently at 1 per cent, monetary policy is stimulative in Canada.

The Bank’s estimates of the neutral rate have declined by more than 1 percentage point since the mid-2000s as a result of structural changes in the Canadian and global economies. This decline largely reflects a lower global neutral rate and reduced potential output growth in Canada.

The global savings rate began to increase in the early 2000s. This rise was interrupted by the crisis, but the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects it to continue in the future (Figure 6). The IMF projects the global savings rate to average 26 per cent over the 2014–19 period, more than 3 percentage points above its 1999–2006 average.

The preceding analysis of savings and investment assumed that there is a single risk-free interest rate in the economy. In reality, households and firms do not generally have access to credit at the risk-free rate. When borrowing to finance investment or consumption, private economic agents pay a rate of interest equal to the risk-free rate plus a risk premium or credit spread. Since credit spreads influence private sector behaviour, they affect the level of the neutral rate….Figure 8 shows effective spreads for households and firms in Canada. The 2013 average level of effective spreads was about 20 bps higher for households and 45 bps higher for firms, relative to the 1999–2006 average. Were this increase in spreads to persist, it would imply a lower neutral rate.

Did everybody get that last bit? Since credit spreads have increased, households and firms will have to pay more to borrow, which means they will borrow less, which reduces growth, which means the policy rate will have to decrease in order to maintain the growth rate, which means households and firms will get paid less for their savings. Hurray for financial repression! Mr. Mendes says we can give thanks to our glorious leaders for keeping us safe!

Relative to the pre-crisis benchmark, changes in spreads are not uniform across economies. In particular, spreads have not increased universally. However, increased costs of financial intermediation, partly as a result of needed financial regulatory reform, may cause spreads to settle at higher levels than in the pre-crisis period. A joint analysis by the Financial Stability Board and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision attempted to quantify this effect. It found that a 3-percentage-point increase in banks’ common equity Tier 1 capital ratio would raise lending spreads by around 45 to 50 basis points (BCBS and FSB 2010). The Bank’s estimates for Canada are of a similar magnitude (Bank of Canada 2010). This could be reinforced by changes in investors’ perceptions and pricing of risk in light of the experience of the crisis. As Caballero and Farhi (2014) show, an increase in the relative demand for safe assets can increase the spread between risky and risk-free assets and lead to a lower neutral rate.

Blackrock, the people who bring to you more ETFs than you can shake a stick at, has released a “Viewpoint” with the thesis Corporate Bond Market Structure: The Time For Reform Is Now:

We believe the secondary trading environment for corporate bonds today is broken, and the extent of the breakage is masked by the current environment of low interest rates and low volatility, coupled with the positive impact of QE on credit markets. The current environment also breeds complacency—for issuers and investors alike. When any of these factors change, the extent to which today’s fixed income markets are not “fit for purpose” will be exposed. Market regulators are right to call for change now, while the benign state still exists. In this paper we make four recommendations for reform. As we explain, these are not just regulatory changes, but much broader reforms—to fix corporate fixed income markets will require changes in behavior by all market participants—issuers, intermediaries and investors. And yes, by regulators, too.

Their problem is one I have harped on until you guys are all bored to death of the topic:

For the last several years, both retail and institutional investors have been concerned about deteriorating liquidity in the corporate bond market.

… and they propose four steps:

Market Changes to Improve Liquidity

There is no “silver bullet” that will cure the corporate bond liquidity challenge. However, there are four drivers which, together, have the potential to substantially improve liquidity in the corporate bond market.

  • More “all to all” trading venues – not just “dealer-to-customer” or “dealer-to-dealer”;
  • Adoption of multiple electronic trading (e-trading) protocols – not just request for quote (RFQ) or central limit order book (CLOB);
  • Standardization of selected features of newly-issued corporate bonds; and
  • Behavioral changes by market participants recognizing the fundamentally changed landscape.

The first idea is, essentially, exchange trading for bonds:

Increased development and acceptance of “all-to-all” trading venues, where multiple parties, from both the buy-side and the sell-side, could come together and communicate would provide opportunities to uncover latent liquidity. Greater use of “all-to-all” venues, including exchanges, clearinghouses, electronic communication networks (ECNs), and similar platforms would enhance liquidity by enabling greater market connectivity and centralization of liquidity than the current bi-lateral framework. Such venues already exist, but see limited trading activity. For example, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) operates NYSE Bonds which trades in a similar manner to the NYSE stock exchange; however, NYSE Bonds has limited volume of largely small-sized trades.

I can’t agree with this one. As I often bore you by reiterating (most recently on June 23, 2014) public exchanges lead to thin, brittle markets. Exchanges are OK for tiny little markets like equities, but the bond market deals with real money.

Their introduction to the explanation of their ‘multiple protocol’ idea amused me:

Currently, trading in the corporate bond market is primarily conducted via the request for quote (RFQ) method, where a trader from the buy-side will communicate an interest in buying or selling a particular bond to a dealer and ask the dealer for a price. The buy-side trader may ask several dealers for a price quote and will then select a dealer with whom to conduct the transaction.

Ha-ha! As I most recently noted on September 16, 2014, your average portfolio manager is far too lazy to get multiple quotes. The general rule, enthusiastically endorsed by our wise regulators, is for bozo-boy to call ‘his’ salesman at ‘his’ firm, exchange wise remarks about whatever was in the headlines of the Wall Street Journal that morning, and then take whatever price he’s given for whatever the salesman is selling. Then he calls his mummy and tells her what a big shot he is; having received a confidence-raising pat on the head, he then calls his clients and tells them what a hard-nosed skin-flint he is. That’s reality.

Anyway, they contrast the RFQ system, above, with the CLOB system:

In comparison, a central limit order book (CLOB), one of the primary protocols used in the equity markets, allows buy and sell orders for a particular stock that is listed on an exchange to be matched up, and facilitates efficient execution for these securities. Central limit order book protocols work best when the instruments being traded are highly liquid and standardized.

They want to form other protocols:

RFQ systems All-to-all RFQ systems are all-to-all trading venues, where multiple parties from both the buy-side and the sell-side are connected and quotes can be requested from several different parties electronically.

RFQ can be made anonymously or disclosed. Multiple requests could be made simultaneously via lists to multiple participants on the venue. This enables aggregating some of the fragmented liquidity and supports broader market participation.

Open trading protocols Open trading systems that pool together sell-side inventory and orders with buy-side orders enhance liquidity by broadening the universe of potential matches. MarketAxess is an ECN that has been a thought leader in defining new protocols, and offers both open trading and list-based all-to-all RFQ protocols.
Session-based protocols Session-based protocols aggregate liquidity in a given security at defined times of day by announcing a time when certain securities will be traded. Parties interested in buying and selling that particular security will do so at that time, which in turn addresses timing mismatches, where there is no buyer when a market participant wants to sell a security or vice versa.
Crossing systems Enables anonymous matching of desired buy and sell orders using electronic systems, usually executed at a mid-market price.

Well, these things might be OK, or at least interesting, when raising or spending cash. But I can’t see any applicability for spread trading, which makes all this useless. Session-based protocols aren’t much good – corporate bonds trade by appointment, and a rational trader won’t even know he wants to trade something until after he’s shown a good price. So let’s just say on this that I retain an open mind, but I’m going to need a lot more explanation and justification!

My first thought when reading their recommendation for ‘standardization’ was that it was going to be a reprise on the idiotic covenant standardization idea mocked on March 10, 2014; fortunately, Blackrock isn’t that dumb. What they want is:

Standardization would reduce the number of individual bonds, via steps such as issuing similar amounts and maturities at regular intervals and re-opening benchmark issues to meet on-going financing needs. Standardized terms would improve the ability to quote and trade bonds, and would create a liquid curve for individual issuers.

They offer up a number of purported advantages of such a change, but don’t really address the question of how the poor old issuer is supposed to refund the monster issues when they come due. Governments can have a set schedule of issuance, there is always a good deep bid for governments … but for credit? I’m not so sure.

Their desired behavioral changes are a real grab-bag:

For investors, this behavioral change means a willingness to give up new issue gains and liquidity arbitrage strategies for lower transaction costs, access to deeper markets, and for institutional investors in particular, the ability to buy and sell in greater size. Investors must become price makers as well as price takers. Issuers must begin to assess the benefits of standardization (potentially lower issuance costs) against the cost (some compromises in flexibility) not only in today’s benign environment but also when interest rates rise and volatility increases. Bankers should provide leadership in product innovation and structure debt offerings to improve liquidity, as the status quo is not sustainable. Larger, more frequent issuers, particularly wholesale-funded banks that are also the leading debt underwriters, are natural parties to lead the market evolution. Trading venues need to develop new ways to trade beyond the standard protocols. And regulators, given concerns about transparency and market liquidity need to consider the benefits of standardization and how best, within their mandate, to promote it.

I continue to feel that the best path – and the one that makes most sense in terms of markets – is for large bond-holders to start making markets. Blackrock could take the lead here. How about a corporate bond fund that covenants not to approximate the index as closely as possible, but one that will invest in a universe defined by such-and-such an index, maintaining metrics such as duration, convexity, average coupon, issuer exposure, etc., to within a certain tolerance of the index (a multiple-dimension cell system would be ideal)? As I understand it, that is the objective, more or less, of the HPR: Horizons AlphaPro Preferred Share ETF:

“We’re very happy to be working with Natcan once again. Their fixed income team has done a great job in managing the recently launched Horizons AlphaPro Corporate Bond ETF, Canada’s largest actively managed ETF. We expect more of the same with the Preferred Share ETF based on our belief that an active strategy can overcome many of the limitations found in trying to replicate a preferred share index,” said Ken McCord, President of AlphaPro.

… but of course, that would involve Blackrock hiring actual traders and actual salesmen to run their fund … and those guys make a little bit more than the spreadsheet wretches they have on staff now … ‘You first!’ exhort the bold visionaries at Blackrock! Maybe Guggenheim, or one of the other players who have been buying US annuity books will step up. It would be a natural fit.

And … almost finally … there are questions swirling about the King Timmy merger:

The Treasury Department announced steps that will make it harder for U.S. companies to move their addresses outside the country to reduce taxes, clamping down on the practice known as inversions.

Among the eight pending inversions is Burger King Worldwide Inc. (BKW)’s planned merger with Tim Hortons Inc. (THI), which would put the combined company’s headquarters in Canada.

Under current law, U.S. companies that invert through a merger are still treated as domestic for tax purposes if the former U.S. company’s shareholders own more than 80 percent of the combined company. The administration wants to reduce that 80 percent to 50 percent; that requires legislation.

In the absence of legislation, the Treasury Department looked for ways to make it harder for companies to get around the 80 percent limit.

The rules announced today seek to limit so-called spin-versions, in which U.S. companies spin off units into a foreign company.

It also would restrict the use of a technique known as skinnying down, in which companies make special dividends to reduce their size before a merger to meet the current law’s requirements. U.S. companies would be less able to seek out so-called old and cold foreign companies with cash and other passive assets as merger partners to meet the rules.

Scott Bonikowsky, a spokesman for Tim Hortons, didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking comment. Burger King, based in Miami, declined to comment.

Power Corporation, proud issuer of POW.PR.A, POW.PR.B, POW.PR.C, POW.PR.D, POW.PR.F and POW.PR.G, has confirmed at Pfd-2(high) by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed the Senior Debt and preferred shares ratings of Power Corporation of Canada (POW or the Company) at A (high) and Pfd-2 (high), respectively. The trends on the ratings remain Stable. The credit strength of POW is directly tied to its roughly two-thirds equity interest in Power Financial Corporation (PWF), which represents a substantial majority of the Company’s earnings and cash flow, as well as the Company’s estimated net asset value. The Senior Debt rating of the Company is A (high), or one notch below the AA (low) rating on the Senior Debentures of PWF, reflecting the structural subordination of the holding company’s obligations.

Power Financial Corporation, proud issuer of PWF.PR.A, PWF.PR.E, PWF.PR.F, PWF.PR.G, PWF.PR.H, PWF.PR.I, PWF.PR.K, PWF.PR.L, PWF.PR.O, PWF.PR.P, PWF.PR.R, PWF.PR.S and PWF.PR.T, has been confirmed at Pfd-1(low) by DBRS:

DBRS has today confirmed both the Issuer Rating and Senior Debentures rating of Power Financial Corporation (PWF or the Company) at AA (low) and the Cumulative and Non-Cumulative First Preferred Shares at Pfd-1 (low). All trends remain Stable. The financial strength of PWF, and DBRS’s rating assessment, is largely derived from its controlling interests in two of Canada’s leading financial service providers: Great-West Lifeco Inc. (GWO; senior debt rated AA (low)), one of the three largest life insurance concerns in Canada, and IGM Financial Inc. (IGM; senior debt rated A (high)), one of the largest mutual fund complexes in Canada.

The Company’s financial leverage has been maintained at a reasonable level for the past ten years. The Company’s capitalization remains conservative and the fixed charge coverage ratios are similarly strong relative to both earnings and cash flow. Liquidity is not a source of concern, with about $800 million in cash and short-term securities at the holding company at June 30, 2014, in addition to stores of liquidity at both GWO and IGM.

It was a modestly positive day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 4bp, FixedResets winning 8bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 3bp. Volatility was average. Volume was below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.4848 % 2,637.8
FixedFloater 4.20 % 3.46 % 24,966 18.43 1 -0.7463 % 4,129.2
Floater 2.92 % 3.05 % 57,212 19.59 4 -0.4848 % 2,727.7
OpRet 4.05 % 1.57 % 98,820 0.08 1 0.0395 % 2,727.1
SplitShare 4.30 % 3.80 % 106,598 3.90 5 0.1177 % 3,150.7
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0395 % 2,493.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.48 % 3.51 % 81,667 0.08 20 0.0996 % 2,438.3
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.18 % 101,413 15.16 16 0.0439 % 2,589.7
FixedReset 4.24 % 3.76 % 184,423 6.48 74 0.0752 % 2,558.4
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.99 % 114,145 0.42 42 0.0314 % 2,564.3
FloatingReset 2.58 % -2.37 % 76,046 0.08 6 -0.0913 % 2,537.5
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
MFC.PR.F FixedReset -1.24 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.37
Bid-YTW : 4.61 %
BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount -1.01 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-22
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %
IAG.PR.G FixedReset 1.00 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.21
Bid-YTW : 2.46 %
POW.PR.G Perpetual-Premium 1.03 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-04-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.02
Bid-YTW : 4.83 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
PWF.PR.H Perpetual-Premium 255,200 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 150,000 and 100,000, both at 25.43.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-22
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.47
Bid-YTW : -6.76 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 231,290 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-22
Maturity Price : 23.19
Evaluated at bid price : 25.11
Bid-YTW : 4.01 %
SLF.PR.H FixedReset 121,700 Nesbitt crossed 117,800 at 25.20.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2016-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.23
Bid-YTW : 3.40 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 116,727 Scotia crossed 98,700 at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-07-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.13
Bid-YTW : 3.61 %
CU.PR.C FixedReset 66,004 RBC crossed blocks of 50,000 and 14,200, both at 25.52.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-06-01
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.44
Bid-YTW : 3.42 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 58,180 TD crossed 21,500 at 25.31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.31
Bid-YTW : 3.74 %
There were 26 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PR.K Floater Quote: 17.05 – 17.32
Spot Rate : 0.2700
Average : 0.1728

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-22
Maturity Price : 17.05
Evaluated at bid price : 17.05
Bid-YTW : 3.07 %

MFC.PR.B Deemed-Retractible Quote: 23.20 – 23.50
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2176

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 23.20
Bid-YTW : 5.61 %

PVS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 25.89 – 26.90
Spot Rate : 1.0100
Average : 0.9287

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.89
Bid-YTW : 3.65 %

MFC.PR.C Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.70 – 22.92
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1430

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 5.73 %

GWO.PR.I Deemed-Retractible Quote: 22.54 – 22.80
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1831

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.54
Bid-YTW : 5.80 %

BAM.PF.D Perpetual-Discount Quote: 21.63 – 21.85
Spot Rate : 0.2200
Average : 0.1577

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-22
Maturity Price : 21.33
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 5.68 %

Market Action

September 19, 2014

Interesting to see that having a down-payment for a house isn’t good enough any more:

The Bank of Mom and Dad is playing a growing role as lender of last resort for a housing recovery struggling to provide more traction for the U.S. economy.

Last year, 27 percent of those purchasing a home for the first time received a cash gift from relatives or friends to come up with a down payment, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. That’s up from 24 percent in 2012 and matches the highest share since the group began keeping records in 2009.

Those numbers will probably keep growing this year as younger Americans remain constrained by student debt, tough entry into the job market and stricter mortgage-lending rules that require more cash up front. At the same time, rising stock and property values give their baby boomer parents the ability to assist those wanting to lock in near record-low borrowing costs.

The increase in such cash gifts also has lenders on guard against unstable sources of down payment funds.

“The regulatory agencies are very, very specific about the paper trail requirements,” said Staci Titsworth, a regional loan officer in Pittsburgh who works in the mortgage division of PNC Financial Services Group Inc. “It truly needs to be a gift with no expectation to repay, because once expectation to repay comes into the equation, now you’ve got borrowed funds for down payment, which is unacceptable.”

PNC, as with other lenders such as Regions Financial Corp. and BB&T Corp., requires that the gift be from a relative by blood or marriage, with few exceptions. A “gift letter” with the mortgage application typically must include the amount of the gift, date the funds were transferred, donor’s basic identification and relationship to the buyer, and a statement that no repayment is expected, according to representatives of the three banks.

Financial institutions are careful about determining the source of funds because, while mortgages secured with the help of gifts from family are about as sound as those without any help, gifts linked to the seller were found to have increased default rates during the housing crisis, according to data from the Federal Housing Administration. Gifts from the seller are now banned by the agency.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 11bp, FixedResets off 2bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 4bp. Volatility was muted. Volume was a little below average.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0415 % 2,650.7
FixedFloater 4.17 % 3.43 % 24,419 18.50 1 -0.0877 % 4,160.2
Floater 2.91 % 3.04 % 53,403 19.62 4 -0.0415 % 2,741.0
OpRet 4.05 % 1.65 % 91,511 0.08 1 -0.0395 % 2,726.0
SplitShare 4.30 % 3.80 % 110,954 3.91 5 -0.1009 % 3,147.0
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0395 % 2,492.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 2.48 % 70,374 0.09 20 -0.0766 % 2,435.9
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.18 % 101,303 15.15 16 -0.1053 % 2,588.5
FixedReset 4.24 % 3.79 % 187,250 8.49 74 -0.0203 % 2,556.5
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 1.95 % 110,346 0.28 42 0.0419 % 2,563.5
FloatingReset 2.61 % -0.95 % 75,689 0.08 6 0.0326 % 2,539.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.87 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.63
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %
BAM.PR.X FixedReset 1.10 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 21.81
Evaluated at bid price : 22.06
Bid-YTW : 4.13 %
TRP.PR.B FixedReset 1.22 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 19.96
Evaluated at bid price : 19.96
Bid-YTW : 3.77 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 1,507,011 New issue settled today.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 375,056 RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.39; TD crossed 300,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.35
Bid-YTW : 3.94 %
TD.PR.Q Deemed-Retractible 134,350 Scotia crossed 40,000 at 26.27; TD crossed blocks of 40,000 and 48,400 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.20
Bid-YTW : -6.57 %
BAM.PR.P FixedReset 108,512 Called for redemption September 30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.98
Bid-YTW : 5.91 %
ENB.PR.T FixedReset 82,843 TD crossed 78,000 at 24.03.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 22.76
Evaluated at bid price : 23.92
Bid-YTW : 4.29 %
HSB.PR.C Deemed-Retractible 68,540 TD crossed 62,700 at 25.33.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.25
Bid-YTW : -8.70 %
There were 28 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.B FixedReset Quote: 24.63 – 25.00
Spot Rate : 0.3700
Average : 0.2138

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.07
Evaluated at bid price : 24.63
Bid-YTW : 4.26 %

PWF.PR.O Perpetual-Premium Quote: 26.11 – 26.40
Spot Rate : 0.2900
Average : 0.2076

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.25
Evaluated at bid price : 26.11
Bid-YTW : 4.85 %

ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount Quote: 22.13 – 22.47
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2581

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 21.79
Evaluated at bid price : 22.13
Bid-YTW : 5.44 %

W.PR.H Perpetual-Premium Quote: 25.10 – 25.45
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2757

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 24.88
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 5.57 %

RY.PR.Z FixedReset Quote: 25.30 – 25.55
Spot Rate : 0.2500
Average : 0.1758

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.28
Evaluated at bid price : 25.30
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

CU.PR.E Perpetual-Discount Quote: 24.23 – 24.43
Spot Rate : 0.2000
Average : 0.1346

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-19
Maturity Price : 23.84
Evaluated at bid price : 24.23
Bid-YTW : 5.08 %

Market Action

September 18, 2014

Nothing happened today.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerptualDiscounts down 15bp, FixedResets up 10bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 2bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.4171 % 2,651.8
FixedFloater 4.17 % 3.42 % 24,543 18.51 1 0.2198 % 4,163.9
Floater 2.91 % 3.04 % 55,250 19.64 4 0.4171 % 2,742.1
OpRet 4.05 % 1.03 % 89,746 0.08 1 -0.0395 % 2,727.1
SplitShare 4.30 % 3.76 % 109,801 3.91 5 0.0930 % 3,150.1
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0395 % 2,493.7
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 1.80 % 70,538 0.09 20 0.0138 % 2,437.7
Perpetual-Discount 5.27 % 5.19 % 100,980 15.15 16 -0.1483 % 2,591.3
FixedReset 4.26 % 3.80 % 186,561 6.57 74 0.1011 % 2,557.0
Deemed-Retractible 5.01 % 1.76 % 109,953 0.28 42 0.0200 % 2,562.5
FloatingReset 2.61 % 0.00 % 70,068 0.08 6 0.3534 % 2,539.0
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.E FixedReset 1.02 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 23.06
Evaluated at bid price : 24.81
Bid-YTW : 4.22 %
MFC.PR.M FixedReset 1.59 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-12-19
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.53
Bid-YTW : 3.55 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
NA.PR.S FixedReset 378,400 Scotia crossed 368,200 at 25.60. Nice ticket!
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2019-05-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.61
Bid-YTW : 3.63 %
NA.PR.Q FixedReset 104,238 Scotia crossed 100,000 at 25.77.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.85
Bid-YTW : 2.80 %
TRP.PR.E FixedReset 97,670 RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.39; Scotia crossed 40,000 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 23.28
Evaluated at bid price : 25.39
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 91,875 RBC crosse 50,000 at 25.08.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 3.78 %
FTS.PR.G FixedReset 73,870 Nesbitt crossed 62,300at 24.80.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 23.15
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 3.79 %
GWO.PR.N FixedReset 55,160 Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 21.84.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 21.80
Bid-YTW : 4.67 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
BAM.PF.A FixedReset Quote: 25.32 – 25.74
Spot Rate : 0.4200
Average : 0.2394

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2018-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 4.14 %

PVS.PR.C SplitShare Quote: 25.92 – 26.90
Spot Rate : 0.9800
Average : 0.8722

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-12-10
Maturity Price : 25.50
Evaluated at bid price : 25.92
Bid-YTW : 3.52 %

MFC.PR.K FixedReset Quote: 24.70 – 25.05
Spot Rate : 0.3500
Average : 0.2436

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 24.70
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %

BAM.PR.R FixedReset Quote: 25.33 – 25.59
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1712

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 23.76
Evaluated at bid price : 25.33
Bid-YTW : 3.96 %

MFC.PR.F FixedReset Quote: 22.70 – 23.00
Spot Rate : 0.3000
Average : 0.2244

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2025-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 22.70
Bid-YTW : 4.44 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.41 – 22.60
Spot Rate : 0.1900
Average : 0.1304

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-09-18
Maturity Price : 21.91
Evaluated at bid price : 22.41
Bid-YTW : 4.02 %