PrefBlog

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced:

that it has agreed to issue 8,000,000 Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 9 (“Series 9 Preferred Units”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, Scotiabank, and TD Securities Inc. The Series 9 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $200,000,000. Holders of the Series 9 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution at a rate of 5.00% annually for the initial period ending March 31, 2023. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.00%, and (ii) 5.00%. The Series 9 Preferred Units are redeemable on or after March 31, 2023.

Holders of the Series 9 Preferred Units will have the right, at their option, to reclassify their Series 9 Preferred Units into Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 10 (“Series 10 Preferred Units”), subject to certain conditions, on March 31, 2023 and on March 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of Series 10 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating distribution at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 3.00%.

Brookfield Infrastructure has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable until 48 hours prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 2,000,000 Series 9 Preferred Units which, if exercised, would increase the gross offering size to $250,000,000.

The Series 9 Preferred Units will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to Brookfield Infrastructure’s existing short form base shelf prospectus.

Brookfield Infrastructure intends to use the net proceeds of the issue of the Series 9 Preferred Units to fund a growing backlog of committed organic growth capital expenditure projects and an active pipeline of new investment opportunities, and for general working capital purposes. The offering of Series 9 Preferred Units is expected to close on or about January 23, 2018.

This issue looks quite expensive to me, according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

Click for Big

Well, it’s starting to get monotonous, but we see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing last week’s BEP issue, the CM issue and NA issue:

• The curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure), and
• The extant issues are trading relatively near to, or well above par

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to this outcome. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate.

For the long term, I suggest that any change in the slope of the curve will be a flattening, with a very high degree of confidence. This will imply that the higher-spread issues will outperform the lower-spread issues.

All told, though, I have no hesitation in slapping an ‘Expensive’ label on this issue – according to the Implied Volatility analysis shown above, the theoretical price of the new issue is 23.50. Mind you, the Implied Volatility cap rate of 40% is arbitrary; perhaps if I allowed 50% or so the new issue would sit on the curve … but in that case, Implied Volatility has become a completely arbitrary meaningless number.

National Bank of Canada has announced:

that it has entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by National Bank Financial Inc. for the issuance on a bought deal basis of 8 million non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 40 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 40 Preferred Shares”) at a price of $25.00 per share, to raise gross proceeds of $200 million.

National Bank has granted the underwriters an option to purchase, on the same terms, up to an additional 4 million Series 40 Preferred Shares. This option is exercisable in whole or in part by the underwriters at any time up to two business days prior to closing. The gross proceeds raised under the offering will be $300 million should this option be exercised in full.

The Series 40 Preferred Shares will yield 4.60% annually, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, for the initial period ending May 15, 2023. The first of such dividends, if declared, shall be payable on May 15, 2018. Thereafter, the dividend rate will reset every five years at a level of 258 basis points over the then 5-year Government of Canada bond yield. Subject to regulatory approval, National Bank may redeem the Series 40 Preferred Shares in whole or in part at par on May 15, 2023 and on May 15 every five years thereafter.

Holders of the Series 40 Preferred Shares will have the right to convert their shares into an equal number of non-cumulative floating rate first preferred shares series 41 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 41 Preferred Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on May 15, 2023, and on May 15 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 41 Preferred Shares will be entitled to receive quarterly floating dividends, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of National Bank, equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 258 basis points.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and added to National Bank’s capital base. The expected closing date is on or about January 22, 2018. National Bank intends to file in Canada a prospectus supplement to its November 21, 2016 base shelf prospectus in respect of this issue.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced domestic public offering of non-cumulative 5-year rate reset first preferred shares series 40 (non-viability contingent capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 40 Preferred Shares”), the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase an additional 4,000,000 Series 40 Preferred Shares. The size of the offering has been increased to 12 million shares for gross proceeds of $300 million. The offering will be underwritten by a syndicate led by National Bank Financial Inc. The expected closing date is on or about January 22, 2018.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes and added to National Bank’s capital base.

This issue looks quite expensive to me, according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

Click for Big

We see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing the recent BPO new issue and Tuesday’s BEP issue and yesterday’s CM issue:

• The curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure), and
• The extant issues are trading relatively near to, or well above par

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to this outcome. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate.

For the long term, I suggest that any change in the slope of the curve will be a flattening, with a very high degree of confidence. This will imply that the higher-spread issues will outperform the lower-spread issues.

All told, though, I have no hesitation in slapping an ‘Expensive’ label on this issue – according to the Implied Volatility analysis shown above, the theoretical price of the new issue is 24.01.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has announced:

that it had entered into an agreement with a group of underwriters led by CIBC Capital Markets for an issue of 16 million Basel III-compliant Non-cumulative Rate Reset Class A Preferred Shares Series 47 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 47 Shares”) priced at $25.00 per Series 47 Share to raise gross proceeds of $400 million.

CIBC has granted the underwriters an option to purchase up to an additional two million Series 47 Shares at the same offering price, exercisable at any time up to two days prior to closing. Should the underwriters’ option be fully exercised, the total gross proceeds of the financing will be $450 million.

The Series 47 Shares will yield 4.5% per annum, payable quarterly, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, for an initial period ending January 31, 2023. On January 31, 2023, and on January 31 every five years thereafter, the dividend rate will reset to be equal to the then current five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 2.45%.

Subject to regulatory approval and certain provisions of the Series 47 Shares, on January 31, 2023 and on January 31 every five years thereafter, CIBC may, at its option, redeem all or any part of the then outstanding Series 47 Shares at par.

Subject to the right of redemption, holders of the Series 47 Shares will have the right to convert their shares into Non-cumulative Floating Rate Class A Preferred Shares Series 48 (Non-Viability Contingent Capital (NVCC)) (the “Series 48 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on January 31, 2023 and on January 31 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 48 Shares will be entitled to receive a quarterly floating rate dividend, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of CIBC, equal to the three-month Government of Canada Treasury Bill yield plus 2.45%.

Holders of the Series 48 Shares may convert their Series 48 Shares into Series 47 Shares, subject to certain conditions, on January 31, 2028 and on January 31 every five years thereafter.

The expected closing date is January 18, 2018. CIBC will make an application to list the Series 47 Shares as of the closing date on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The net proceeds of this offering will be used for general purposes of CIBC.

This issue looks quite expensive to me, according to Implied Volatility Analysis:

Click for Big

We see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing the recent BPO new issue and yesterday’s BEP issue:

• The curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure), and
• The extant issues ar trading near par

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; the market seems to be taking the view that since things seem rosy now, they will always be rosy and everything will trade near par in the future.

I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to this outcome. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate.

For the long term, I suggest that any change in the slope of the curve will be a flattening, with a very high degree of confidence. This will imply that the higher-spread issues will outperform the lower-spread issues.

All told, though, I have no hesitation in slapping an ‘Expensive’ label on this issue – according to the Implied Volatility analysis shown above, the theoretical price of the new issue is 24.26.

Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. has announced:

that it has agreed to issue 8,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 13 (the “Series 13 Preferred Units”) on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank for distribution to the public. The Series 13 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $200,000,000.

Holders of the Series 13 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution yielding 5.00% annually for the initial period ending April 30, 2023. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.00%, and (ii) 5.00%. The Series 13 Preferred Units are redeemable on April 30, 2023 and on each Series 13 Reclassification Date (as defined below) thereafter.

Holders of the Series 13 Preferred Units will have the right, at their option, to reclassify their Series 13 Preferred Units into Cumulative Floating Rate Reset Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 14 (“Series 14 Preferred Units”), subject to certain conditions, on April 30, 2023 and on April 30 every 5 years thereafter (each a “Series 13 Reclassification Date”). Holders of Series 14 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly floating distribution at a rate equal to the 90-day Canadian Treasury Bill yield plus 3.00%.

Brookfield Renewable has granted the underwriters an option, exercisable until 48 hours prior to closing, to purchase up to an additional 2,000,000 Series 13 Preferred Units which, if exercised, would increase the gross offering size to $250,000,000.

The Series 13 Preferred Units will be offered in all provinces and territories of Canada by way of a supplement to Brookfield Renewable’s existing Canadian short form base shelf prospectus. The Series 13 Preferred Units may not be offered or sold in the United States or to U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements under the U.S. Securities Act.

Brookfield Renewable intends to use the net proceeds of the issue of Series 13 Preferred Units to repay indebtedness. The offering of Series 13 Preferred Units is expected to close on or about January 16, 2018.

They later announced:

that as a result of strong investor demand for its previously announced offering, the underwriters have exercised their option to increase the size of the offering to 10,000,000 Cumulative Minimum Rate Reset Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 13 (the “Series 13 Preferred Units”) to be offered on a bought deal basis to a syndicate of underwriters led by TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The Series 13 Preferred Units will be issued at a price of $25.00 per unit, for gross proceeds of $250,000,000.

This issue looks quite expensive to me, but quantifying the degree of richness is difficult. According to Implied Volatility Analysis:

Click for Big

We see in this chart many of the same features we saw when reviewing the recent BPO new issue:

• The curve is very steep, with Implied Volatility equal to 40% (a ridiculously large figure), and
• Each of the extant issues is trading at a premium

The ludicrously high figure of Implied Volatility is something I take to mean that the underlying assumption of the Black-Scholes model, that of no directionality of prices, is not accepted by the market; in turn, I suggest that this reflects a rather touching faith that the existence of a minimum rate guarantee on reset also indicates that the issues will never, ever trade below par. There will be a lot of long faces when this test gets failed in the future!

However, for the long term, I suggest that any change in the slope of the curve will be a flattening, with a very high degree of confidence. This will imply that the higher-spread issues will outperform the lower-spread issues.

Complicating the above analysis is a high probability that the three extant issues will each be called at the first opportunity. I will certainly agree that this is likely to happen, but I balk at ascribing a 100% probability to this outcome. There may still be a few old geezers amongst the Assiduous Readers of this blog who can still (faintly) remember the Great Bear Market of 2014-16, in which quite a few similar assumptions made earlier turned out to be slightly inaccurate.

All told, though, I have no hesitation in slapping a ‘Very Expensive’ label on this issue.