The Bank of Canada has announced it has:
reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3¾%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3¾%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1¾% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains soft—the unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.
Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
CPI inflation has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September. Inflation in shelter costs remains elevated but has begun to ease. Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services. The drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices. These factors have all combined to bring inflation down. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2½%. With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.
The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out. The upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
With inflation now back around the 2% target, Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. If the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast, we expect to reduce the policy rate further. However, the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook. We will take decisions one meeting at a time. The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
Mark Rendell in the Globe comments:
The larger-than-usual rate cut follows a string of data showing that both inflation and economic growth in Canada are running below what the bank expected. With price pressures essentially under control, central bankers are now trying to get borrowing costs back to a neutral level that doesn’t restrain growth to avoid a recession and a further rise in unemployment.
The bank’s forecast, published Wednesday, sees economic activity picking up toward the end of the year and into next year, with falling interest rates expected to spur business investment and consumer spending on interest-sensitive goods such as cars and houses.
An increase in per-person spending will be partly offset by slowing population growth, following the new federal caps on temporary immigration, the bank said.
Financial market reaction to the announcement was muted as investors were widely anticipating a half-point cut. The yield on two-year Government of Canada bonds fell a few basis points on the news, but ended the day up slightly. The Canadian dollar weakened a tad against the U.S. currency.
…while Darcy Keith reports:
Here’s how implied probabilities of future interest rate moves stood in swaps markets following today’s decision, according to LSEG data. The overnight rate now resides at 3.75 per cent. While the bank moves in quarter point increments, credit market implied rates fluctuate more fluidly and are constantly changing. Columns to the right are percentage probabilities of future rate moves.
Post-announcement
Prime followed:
- TD : Down 0.50% to 5.95%
- CIBC: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
- BNS: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
- RBC: Down 0.50% to 5.95%
- BMO:Down 0.50% to 5.95%
Well, Rob Carrick and Ryan Siever will be mad – nothing on the way up and precious few hopes for the way down:
There’s a case to be made for banks giving borrowers a break when what is expected to be the biggest interest rate hike in 22 years is announced on Wednesday.
A brief flashback to 2015 is required to get the sense of this story. The economy back then was in the opposite shape of what it is now – weak enough to prompt the Bank of Canada to cut its trendsetting overnight rate by 0.25 of a percentage point in January and again in July.
The big banks hijacked part of that rate cut. While the overnight rate fell by a total 0.5 of a point, the banks cut their prime rate by cumulative 0.3 of a point. They held back the rest of the rate cut to build their revenues and profit.
There was a delay in reducing the prime when the Canada Overnight rate dropped 25bp to 0.75% in January 2015 and again when Canada Overnight dropped a further 25bp to 0.50% in July of that year.
TRP.PR.E / TRP.PR.L: 7% Conversion to FloatingReset
Thursday, October 24th, 2024TC Energy Corporation has announced:
TRP.PR.E was issued as a FixedReset, 4.25%+235, that commenced trading 2014-1-20 after being announced 2014-1-13. Notice of extension was provided on 2019-9-18. TRP.PR.E reset at 3.762% effective 2019-10-30. I recommended against conversion and there was no conversion. The issue resets to 5.08% effective 2024-10-30. TRP.PR.E is tracked by HIMIPref™ and assigned to the FixedReset-Discount subindex.
So, if you think about it: TRP.PR.E reset to 5.08% in accordance with a GOC-5 rate of 2.73%. So those who converted to the FloatingRate are betting that the 3-Month bill rate for the next five years will average better than 2.73%. Given that 3-Month bills are now at about 3.54% and that the swaps market is forecasting an overnight rate of 2.58% at the end of 2025, it’s not the most horrible bet I’ve seen people make.
Thanks to Assiduous Reader NK for bringing this to my attention!
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