October 1, 2014

PIMCo doesn’t love us any more:

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Total Return ETF slashed its holdings of Canadian debt to 2.1 percent from 9.2 percent in the five days ending yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The $3 billion exchange-traded fund, which follows a similar investment strategy as Newport Beach, California-based Pimco’s flagship $222 billion mutual fund, was run by co-founder Bill Gross before his sudden departure on Sept. 26.

Pimco has less invested in Canada than benchmarks recommend, said Ed Devlin, who oversees $17 billion, including the Canadian portfolios, for Pimco. He said he prefers markets such as Mexico.

“We still think Canada is a relatively unattractive market when we look at rates around the world,” Devlin said at the Bloomberg Canadian Fixed-Income Conference in New York yesterday. “Other markets are much more attractive.”

Devlin noted the yield on the Canadian 10-year bond, at about 2.1 percent, is in line with inflation. “What’s fun about that? Not much,” he said.

Equities started the quarter on the wrong foot:

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index (SPTSX) fell 155.07 points, or 1 percent, to 14,805.44 at 4 p.m. in Toronto, retreating for a third straight day. The index lost 4.3 percent in September, the most since May 2012, and fell 1.2 percent in the third quarter.

U.S. stocks tumbled today amid concern over economic growth in Europe and geopolitical turmoil as the Federal Reserve prepares to end its bond-buying program. The Russell 2000 Index (RTY) dropped more than 10 percent from a record reached in March, meeting the common definition of a correction.

Equities fell as Italy cut its growth forecast, German manufacturing shrank and euro-area factories lowered prices in September by the most in more than a year. The weakness underlined the mounting challenge facing policy makers before the European Central Bank meets tomorrow.

… but bonds were on fire!

Treasuries gained the most in more than eight months as yields higher relative to most Group of Seven nations increased demand from investors worldwide concerned global growth is stalling.

Benchmark 10-year notes yielded almost the most versus their German counterparts since 1999 after the dollar touched a two-year high versus the euro yesterday. The European Central Bank may detail its plan to buy asset-backed securities tomorrow amid slowdowns in Germany in France. Stocks tumbled, pushing the Russell 2000 Index into a correction, and bolstering the haven appeal of U.S. government securities.

The U.S. 10-year yield fell 10 basis points, or 0.10 percentage point, to 2.39 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. It’s the biggest drop since Jan. 23. The 2.375 percent security rose 29/32, or $9.06 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 28/32.

U.S. 10-year notes yielded 1.48 percentage points more than their German counterparts after reaching 1.57 on Sept. 17, the most since June 1999. They were 1.85 percentage points higher than those of Japanese peers, up from 0.63 percentage point in May 2012.

Meanwhile, for you brokers out there worrying about clients leaving you after a not very exciting quarter … PIMCo feels your pain:

Pimco CEO Douglas Hodge said this week during a conference call that the firm is expecting and is ready for client redemptions. Pimco could see withdrawals of 10 percent to 30 percent, Sanford Bernstein said in a report. Pimco has not disclosed how much money has left the firm since Gross’s departure.

Investors yanked a record $446.5 million from Pimco’s $2.9 billion Total Return ETF after Gross’ departure from the firm on Sept. 26., before slowing redemptions to $98 million on Sept. 29 and $87 million yesterday. The exchange-traded fund follows a similar investment strategy as the Pimco Total Return mutual fund.

Pimco’s largest competitors had already been benefiting this year as investors have moved away from the firm’s Total Return into top-performing rivals as well as flexible funds that can protect from rising interest rates. Pimco’s Total Return Fund has lagged behind competitors this year, trailing 62 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It was a mixed day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts down 16bp, FixedResets gaining 1bp and DeemedRetractibles up 6bp. Volatility was minimal. Volume was low.

HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices
These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices

Values are provisional and are finalized monthly
Index Mean
Current
Yield
(at bid)
Median
YTW
Median
Average
Trading
Value
Median
Mod Dur
(YTW)
Issues Day’s Perf. Index Value
Ratchet 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 1 0.0962 % 2,682.6
FixedFloater 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 0.0962 % 4,131.3
Floater 2.88 % 3.02 % 61,331 19.71 4 0.0962 % 2,774.0
OpRet 4.05 % 2.80 % 101,337 0.08 1 -0.0395 % 2,728.2
SplitShare 4.30 % 3.85 % 96,747 3.87 5 -0.3496 % 3,150.6
Interest-Bearing 0.00 % 0.00 % 0 0.00 0 -0.0395 % 2,494.6
Perpetual-Premium 5.47 % 1.25 % 73,032 0.08 18 0.0656 % 2,445.5
Perpetual-Discount 5.33 % 5.17 % 101,991 15.10 18 -0.1552 % 2,585.8
FixedReset 4.21 % 3.75 % 179,926 8.62 73 0.0134 % 2,556.1
Deemed-Retractible 5.00 % 2.21 % 103,894 0.25 42 0.0647 % 2,563.2
FloatingReset 2.56 % -7.01 % 79,076 0.08 6 0.0260 % 2,541.8
Performance Highlights
Issue Index Change Notes
BAM.PF.B FixedReset -1.43 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.13
Evaluated at bid price : 24.80
Bid-YTW : 4.17 %
ELF.PR.G Perpetual-Discount -1.14 % YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.63
Evaluated at bid price : 21.63
Bid-YTW : 5.51 %
Volume Highlights
Issue Index Shares
Traded
Notes
BMO.PR.T FixedReset 115,350 RBC crossed 50,000 at 25.30 and crossed 20,200 at the same price.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.27
Evaluated at bid price : 25.32
Bid-YTW : 3.75 %
BMO.PR.W FixedReset 108,300 Scotia crossed 16,200 at 25.07 and 50,000 at 25.10.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.18
Evaluated at bid price : 25.08
Bid-YTW : 3.72 %
TD.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 97,641 Called for redemption October 31.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.27
Bid-YTW : 1.71 %
FTS.PR.M FixedReset 95,523 Recent new issue.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.22
Evaluated at bid price : 25.21
Bid-YTW : 3.95 %
BNS.PR.O Deemed-Retractible 85,610 Nesbitt crossed blocks of 50,000 and 30,000, both at 26.30.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2014-10-31
Maturity Price : 25.75
Evaluated at bid price : 26.27
Bid-YTW : -7.64 %
TD.PF.B FixedReset 71,036 Scotia crossed two blocks of 30,000 each, both at 25.12.
YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.21
Evaluated at bid price : 25.10
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %
There were 21 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares.
Wide Spread Highlights
Issue Index Quote Data and Yield Notes
FTS.PR.H FixedReset Quote: 20.79 – 21.24
Spot Rate : 0.4500
Average : 0.3169

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 20.79
Evaluated at bid price : 20.79
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

NA.PR.Q FixedReset Quote: 25.91 – 26.25
Spot Rate : 0.3400
Average : 0.2261

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2017-11-15
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.91
Bid-YTW : 2.75 %

BAM.PR.E Quote: 24.10 – 24.48
Spot Rate : 0.3800
Average : 0.2710

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 23.80
Evaluated at bid price : 24.10
Bid-YTW : 3.10 %

TRP.PR.A FixedReset Quote: 22.45 – 22.68
Spot Rate : 0.2300
Average : 0.1436

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2044-10-01
Maturity Price : 21.93
Evaluated at bid price : 22.45
Bid-YTW : 3.93 %

GWO.PR.M Deemed-Retractible Quote: 26.33 – 26.59
Spot Rate : 0.2600
Average : 0.1745

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2015-03-31
Maturity Price : 26.00
Evaluated at bid price : 26.33
Bid-YTW : 3.08 %

CGI.PR.D SplitShare Quote: 25.06 – 25.30
Spot Rate : 0.2400
Average : 0.1645

YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Soft Maturity
Maturity Date : 2023-06-14
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.06
Bid-YTW : 3.76 %

2 Responses to “October 1, 2014”

  1. JClay says:

    I know we are still waiting for OSFI to tell us what they are going to do with the capital treatment for lifeco perpetual preferreds, but I was wondering specifically about the EL Financial preferred shares ELF.PR.F,G,H. I believe EL Financial recently sold all of its insurance business, so is this the reason you have not categorized their preferreds as “deemed retractibles” on prefinfo.com? Or were these preferreds always different from the other lifeco preferreds?

  2. jiHymas says:

    I believe EL Financial recently sold all of its insurance business

    They sold Dominion:

    On November 1, 2013, the Company completed the sale of its formerly wholly-owned subsidiary, The Dominion of Canada General Insurance Company (“The Dominion”) to The Travelers Companies, Inc. for gross proceeds of $1.08 billion

    … but they retain Empire Life:

    E-L Financial operates as an investment and insurance holding company. The Empire Life Insurance Company (“Empire” or “Empire Life”) (80% owned) underwrites life and health insurance policies and provides segregated funds, mutual funds and annuity products.

    Hence, I still consider them to be an “Insurance Holding Company” and therefore still subject to OSFI regulation. The quotations are from the 14Q2 Financial Report. So, normally, the ELF issues would be DeemedRetractibles.

    so is this the reason you have not categorized their preferreds as “deemed retractibles” on prefinfo.com? Or were these preferreds always different from the other lifeco preferreds?

    But! There’s always a but! The following is from the prospectus for ELF.PR.H, similar to the provisions for ELF.PR.F and ELF.PR.G:

    On and after April 17, 2017, the Corporation may, upon not less than 40 days’ prior notice, subject, if required, to stock exchange approval, convert all or any part of the outstanding First Preference Shares, Series 3 into freely tradeable Common Shares. The number of Common Shares into which each First Preference Share, Series 3 may be so converted will be determined by dividing the then applicable redemption price per First Preference Share, Series 3, together with all declared and unpaid dividends up to but excluding the date fixed for conversion, by the greater of $1.00 and 95% of the then Current Market Price (as defined herein) of the Common Shares at such time.

    Therefore, I assume that should the NVCC rules become applicable to Insurance Holding Companies as I expect, the company will be able to make its issues NVCC-compliant by irrevocably assigning the conversion right to OSFI, in the same manner as CM did back in August 2011.

    I am only aware of one other issue in addition to the ELF and CM issues with this feature: RY.PR.W

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