There’s a horrible jobs market in Canada:
Canada’s jobless rate unexpectedly rose to 7.3 per cent in February, the highest level in nearly three years as the hard-hit resources sector shed another round of jobs.
Over all, the country missed analyst forecasts and shed 2,300 positions. This marked the third month the unemployment rate increased, according to Statistics Canada monthly labour report.
…
Nearly 9,000 people lost work in the natural resources sector last month, adding to the tens of thousands of positions that have vanished since oil started plunging mid-2014. Husky Energy Inc. and Cenovus Energy Inc. were among those in the energy sector slashing jobs.
…
Alberta’s jobless rate jumped to 7.9 per cent from 7.4 per cent in January, as more Albertans hunted for work.But it wasn’t just the oil rich province that bore the brunt of the pain. Saskatchewan lost 7,800 jobs, the most of any of the resource dependent provinces. Ontario also shed 11,000 positions.
British Columbia, which along with Ontario is expected to grow more than the national average, was the only region to significantly add new jobs. Employment in the western province grew by 14,000 due to an increase in trade.
…
Full-time employment fell by 52,000 positions while part time rose by 49,500 spots. Employment in the services-producing sector fell by 44,500 positions, with losses in accommodation and food services.
And this is happening while the chances of a Fed hike are rising:
The bond market is boosting its bets on a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase in June as stocks and oil rally.
As Treasuries head toward a third straight weekly decline, traders now see the probability of a June rate hike as slightly better than a coin flip, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up from a 45 percent chance assigned Thursday and odds below 10 percent seen a month ago. Since 1994, the Fed hasn’t raised rates unless the futures market had priced in at least 60 percent of the move the day before, Bank of America interest-rate strategist Mark Cabana wrote in a March 11 note.
…
There’s almost no market expectation for the Fed to raise rates at its next policy-setting meeting March 15-16, with the futures market implying a 4 percent chance, assuming the fed funds effective rate averages 0.625 percent after the next hike. For the central bank’s June meeting, though, the market-implied probability rose to 51 percent Friday as gains in stocks and crude prices dented demand for Treasuries and other havens.
George Weston Limited has been confirmed at Pfd-3 by DBRS:
DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the Issuer Rating and Notes & Debentures rating of George Weston Limited (GWL or the Company) at BBB as well as its Short-Term Issuer Rating at R-2 (high) and its Preferred Shares rating at Pfd-3. All trends are Stable. DBRS notes that, on March xx, 2016, DBRS confirmed the ratings of Loblaw Companies Limited (Loblaw) and changed the trend to Positive from Stable (see separate press release).
…
GWL’s financial profile should remain stable based on its relatively stable balance-sheet debt, sizable cash balance and cash-generating capacity. Capital expenditures (capex) at Weston Foods are expected to remain elevated in the $300 million range in 2016 and to moderate somewhat going forward as the Company continues to invest new capacity, primarily in the United States, as well as replacement of end-of-life assets with more efficient alternatives. As a result, Weston Foods is likely to generate free cash flow deficits in the next one to two years. GWL is no longer committed to maintaining at least $1.0 billion of cash on hand as Loblaw completed its debt repayment plans in F2015. Over the near to medium term, DBRS expects that the Company will use any free cash flow (including dividends and distributions received) as well as cash on hand to continue to invest in growth (organic through Weston Foods capex or through acquisition) as well as to further increase returns to shareholders. DBRS notes that any rating upgrade on Loblaw to BBB (high) will not likely result in a corresponding rating action on the ratings of GWL.
It was a strong day for the Canadian preferred share market, with PerpetualDiscounts up 54bp, FixedResets winning 85bp and DeemedRetractibles gaining 45bp. The Performance Highlights table is lengthy. Volume was average.
For as long as the FixedReset market is so violently unsettled, I’ll keep publishing updates of the more interesting and meaningful series of FixedResets’ Implied Volatilities. This doesn’t include Enbridge because although Enbridge has a large number of issues outstanding, all of which are quite liquid, the range of Issue Reset Spreads is too small for decent conclusions. The low is 212bp (ENB.PR.H; second-lowest is ENB.PR.D at 237bp) and the high is a mere 268 for ENB.PF.G.
Remember that all rich /cheap assessments are:
» based on Implied Volatility Theory only
» are relative only to other FixedResets from the same issuer
» assume constant GOC-5 yield
» assume constant Implied Volatility
» assume constant spread
Here’s TRP:
TRP.PR.E, which resets 2019-10-30 at +235, is bid at 17.31 to be $1.36 rich, while TRP.PR.C, resetting 2021-1-30 at +296, is $0.88 cheap at its bid price of 11.10.
Most expensive is MFC.PR.O, resetting at +497bp on 2021-6-19, bid at 25.33 to be 0.78 rich, while MFC.PR.G, resetting at +290bp on 2016-12-19, is bid at 17.80 to be 1.16 cheap.
The cheapest issue relative to its peers is BAM.PR.R, resetting at +230bp on 2016-6-30, bid at 13.90 to be $1.30 cheap. BAM.PF.E, resetting at +255 on 2020-3-31 is bid at 17.45 and appears to be $1.03 rich.
FTS.PR.K, with a spread of +205bp, and bid at 15.27 looks $0.49 expensive and resets 2019-3-1. FTS.PR.H, with a spread of +145bp and resetting 2020-6-1, is bid at 11.13 and is $0.54 cheap.
Investment-grade pairs predict an average three-month bill yield over the next five-odd years of -0.79%, with two outliers below -2.00% and one above 0.00%. Note that the range of the y-axis has changed today. There are two junk outliers above 0.00%.
Shall we just say that this exhibits a high level of confidence in the continued rapacity of Canadian banks?
HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
Ratchet | 5.11 % | 6.21 % | 12,104 | 16.41 | 1 | 0.0000 % | 1,534.4 |
FixedFloater | 7.09 % | 6.22 % | 24,711 | 16.07 | 1 | 1.3616 % | 2,804.3 |
Floater | 4.60 % | 4.77 % | 69,288 | 15.95 | 4 | -0.0873 % | 1,683.3 |
OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1185 % | 2,759.4 |
SplitShare | 4.83 % | 5.64 % | 71,649 | 1.66 | 7 | 0.1185 % | 3,229.0 |
Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.1185 % | 2,519.4 |
Perpetual-Premium | 5.81 % | 1.38 % | 76,345 | 0.08 | 6 | -0.0661 % | 2,539.4 |
Perpetual-Discount | 5.70 % | 5.76 % | 96,638 | 14.19 | 33 | 0.5414 % | 2,541.7 |
FixedReset | 5.53 % | 5.23 % | 200,115 | 14.37 | 86 | 0.8486 % | 1,843.1 |
Deemed-Retractible | 5.31 % | 5.51 % | 115,679 | 5.12 | 34 | 0.4522 % | 2,564.5 |
FloatingReset | 3.13 % | 5.10 % | 39,734 | 5.44 | 16 | 0.1450 % | 1,987.5 |
Performance Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
TRP.PR.G | FixedReset | -1.92 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.89 Evaluated at bid price : 17.89 Bid-YTW : 5.32 % |
TD.PR.Z | FloatingReset | -1.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.90 Bid-YTW : 5.42 % |
BNS.PR.A | FloatingReset | -1.54 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.01 Bid-YTW : 4.02 % |
MFC.PR.N | FixedReset | -1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.27 Bid-YTW : 8.52 % |
W.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | -1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 22.71 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
BMO.PR.Q | FixedReset | -1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.70 Bid-YTW : 8.55 % |
NA.PR.Q | FixedReset | -1.07 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 23.05 Bid-YTW : 5.02 % |
NA.PR.W | FixedReset | 1.00 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 16.12 Evaluated at bid price : 16.12 Bid-YTW : 5.08 % |
HSE.PR.E | FixedReset | 1.02 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.60 Evaluated at bid price : 17.60 Bid-YTW : 6.28 % |
BMO.PR.R | FloatingReset | 1.05 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 22.10 Bid-YTW : 4.34 % |
CU.PR.G | Perpetual-Discount | 1.06 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 20.10 Evaluated at bid price : 20.10 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
ELF.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 1.10 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 22.65 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
SLF.PR.B | Deemed-Retractible | 1.12 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 21.67 Bid-YTW : 6.82 % |
CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 21.50 Evaluated at bid price : 21.83 Bid-YTW : 5.64 % |
CM.PR.O | FixedReset | 1.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 4.80 % |
TD.PF.A | FixedReset | 1.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.20 Evaluated at bid price : 17.20 Bid-YTW : 4.73 % |
CU.PR.C | FixedReset | 1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 16.15 Evaluated at bid price : 16.15 Bid-YTW : 5.07 % |
BAM.PR.T | FixedReset | 1.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 14.69 Evaluated at bid price : 14.69 Bid-YTW : 5.43 % |
TD.PF.B | FixedReset | 1.23 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 4.69 % |
BNS.PR.M | Deemed-Retractible | 1.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.40 Bid-YTW : 5.10 % |
BMO.PR.S | FixedReset | 1.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.50 Evaluated at bid price : 17.50 Bid-YTW : 4.73 % |
SLF.PR.I | FixedReset | 1.28 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.46 Bid-YTW : 8.50 % |
RY.PR.W | Perpetual-Discount | 1.29 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 23.32 Evaluated at bid price : 23.60 Bid-YTW : 5.22 % |
CU.PR.E | Perpetual-Discount | 1.30 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 21.49 Evaluated at bid price : 21.81 Bid-YTW : 5.65 % |
BAM.PR.G | FixedFloater | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 13.40 Bid-YTW : 6.22 % |
BAM.PF.C | Perpetual-Discount | 1.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 20.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.00 Bid-YTW : 6.08 % |
ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 1.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 22.06 Evaluated at bid price : 22.29 Bid-YTW : 6.04 % |
MFC.PR.J | FixedReset | 1.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 8.62 % |
FTS.PR.G | FixedReset | 1.47 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 15.15 Evaluated at bid price : 15.15 Bid-YTW : 5.09 % |
BAM.PR.M | Perpetual-Discount | 1.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 19.80 Evaluated at bid price : 19.80 Bid-YTW : 6.02 % |
BAM.PF.G | FixedReset | 1.54 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 18.25 Evaluated at bid price : 18.25 Bid-YTW : 5.28 % |
TRP.PR.F | FloatingReset | 1.65 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 11.71 Evaluated at bid price : 11.71 Bid-YTW : 5.10 % |
RY.PR.H | FixedReset | 1.69 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.45 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 4.65 % |
BAM.PF.D | Perpetual-Discount | 1.77 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 20.20 Evaluated at bid price : 20.20 Bid-YTW : 6.09 % |
BMO.PR.W | FixedReset | 1.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.16 Evaluated at bid price : 17.16 Bid-YTW : 4.67 % |
BAM.PR.N | Perpetual-Discount | 1.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 19.84 Evaluated at bid price : 19.84 Bid-YTW : 6.01 % |
BIP.PR.A | FixedReset | 1.87 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 19.05 Evaluated at bid price : 19.05 Bid-YTW : 5.79 % |
VNR.PR.A | FixedReset | 2.08 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.21 Evaluated at bid price : 17.21 Bid-YTW : 5.44 % |
FTS.PR.M | FixedReset | 2.11 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 16.95 Evaluated at bid price : 16.95 Bid-YTW : 5.13 % |
BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | 2.13 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 13.90 Evaluated at bid price : 13.90 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
CM.PR.P | FixedReset | 2.15 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.08 Evaluated at bid price : 17.08 Bid-YTW : 4.75 % |
BAM.PF.E | FixedReset | 2.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.45 Evaluated at bid price : 17.45 Bid-YTW : 5.15 % |
MFC.PR.M | FixedReset | 2.18 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.32 Bid-YTW : 8.55 % |
RY.PR.Z | FixedReset | 2.22 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.49 Evaluated at bid price : 17.49 Bid-YTW : 4.58 % |
SLF.PR.H | FixedReset | 2.24 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 15.54 Bid-YTW : 9.39 % |
TRP.PR.D | FixedReset | 2.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 16.50 Evaluated at bid price : 16.50 Bid-YTW : 5.11 % |
RY.PR.M | FixedReset | 2.53 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 18.22 Evaluated at bid price : 18.22 Bid-YTW : 4.80 % |
GWO.PR.O | FloatingReset | 2.59 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 11.50 Bid-YTW : 11.70 % |
BAM.PF.A | FixedReset | 2.70 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 18.05 Evaluated at bid price : 18.05 Bid-YTW : 5.30 % |
BMO.PR.T | FixedReset | 2.78 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.38 Evaluated at bid price : 17.38 Bid-YTW : 4.64 % |
BAM.PF.F | FixedReset | 2.86 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 18.45 Evaluated at bid price : 18.45 Bid-YTW : 5.20 % |
BAM.PR.X | FixedReset | 3.13 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 12.81 Evaluated at bid price : 12.81 Bid-YTW : 5.35 % |
HSE.PR.C | FixedReset | 3.68 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 15.80 Evaluated at bid price : 15.80 Bid-YTW : 6.46 % |
HSE.PR.A | FixedReset | 4.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 9.23 Evaluated at bid price : 9.23 Bid-YTW : 6.89 % |
PWF.PR.Q | FloatingReset | 4.37 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 10.75 Evaluated at bid price : 10.75 Bid-YTW : 4.87 % |
TD.PF.C | FixedReset | 5.36 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 17.10 Evaluated at bid price : 17.10 Bid-YTW : 4.74 % |
BAM.PF.B | FixedReset | 5.81 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 16.72 Evaluated at bid price : 16.72 Bid-YTW : 5.34 % |
Volume Highlights | |||
Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
BAM.PR.R | FixedReset | 132,627 | TD crossed 50,000 at 13.87. Scotia crossed 71,600 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 13.90 Evaluated at bid price : 13.90 Bid-YTW : 5.60 % |
MFC.PR.G | FixedReset | 124,982 | Scotia crossed 115,000 at 17.78. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2025-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 17.80 Bid-YTW : 8.46 % |
RY.PR.R | FixedReset | 99,975 | Recent new issue. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-08-24 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.34 Bid-YTW : 5.26 % |
TD.PF.G | FixedReset | 76,250 | Scotia crossed 25,000 at 25.50. RBC crossed 29,100 at the same price. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Call Maturity Date : 2021-04-30 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 25.49 Bid-YTW : 5.29 % |
RY.PR.L | FixedReset | 53,400 | RBC crossed 50,000 at 24.70. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2022-01-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.65 Bid-YTW : 4.21 % |
W.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | 51,490 | Nesbitt crossed 50,000 at 23.20. YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2046-03-11 Maturity Price : 22.71 Evaluated at bid price : 23.00 Bid-YTW : 6.07 % |
There were 33 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. |
Wide Spread Highlights | ||
Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
BAM.PR.E | Ratchet | Quote: 13.25 – 14.18 Spot Rate : 0.9300 Average : 0.6889 YTW SCENARIO |
PWF.PR.T | FixedReset | Quote: 19.26 – 19.79 Spot Rate : 0.5300 Average : 0.3503 YTW SCENARIO |
BNS.PR.R | FixedReset | Quote: 22.90 – 23.49 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4379 YTW SCENARIO |
W.PR.H | Perpetual-Discount | Quote: 23.00 – 23.49 Spot Rate : 0.4900 Average : 0.3390 YTW SCENARIO |
TRP.PR.F | FloatingReset | Quote: 11.71 – 12.30 Spot Rate : 0.5900 Average : 0.4399 YTW SCENARIO |
TD.PR.Y | FixedReset | Quote: 23.29 – 23.85 Spot Rate : 0.5600 Average : 0.4173 YTW SCENARIO |