6 Responses to “October 24, 2016”

1. malcolmm says:

   October 25, 2016 at 6:18 pm

   I think public transit may eventually go anyway once driverless cars become the standard.

   In Vancouver, where I live, most of our buses are diesel so they aren’t environmentally friendly. Skytrain is but only serves very limited areas and is extremely costly to build and maintain.

   I envision a future of driverless, electric powered cars that you don’t own, only rent. Recharging would be taken care of automatically and you would only need or want to rent as big a vehicle as you required. With most vehicles being driverless you could have higher traffic density without congestion.

2. jiHymas says:

   October 26, 2016 at 1:04 am

   It leads to interesting questions about how public transit could change to reflect the new reality.

   I suggest that that the need for commuter trains and subways will be largely unaffected. They’re a good method for taking the same long-ish journey that a lot of other people are taking. Then, once you get to your station, the train is met by a swarm of self-driving taxis that – at a somewhat higher cost per kilometer – take you to your door.

   But busses? Yes, busses will go. And good riddance.

3. stusclues says:

   October 26, 2016 at 6:37 am

   Yes. Busses will go. Super-efficient trains, etc, may stay. Taxis and rental cars effectively become the same thing when no driver is present. Personal autos will only exist in the sense that “enthusiasts” might own them but they won’t make practical/financial sense (they also won’t be allowed everywhere).

   The swarms of autonomous vehicles will be owned and managed by a cadre of global and local brands (like rental cars and car shares today). The emerge of fleet ownership will eliminate whole business segments that cater to personal ownership (think car washes, fuel stations, Mr. Lube, tire shops, car parks, etc.).

   Since autonomous vehicles will talk to each other and the transportation infrastructure, they will be much more efficient at using the space available, perhaps by as much as 10X. Cities will be able to reclaim vast amounts of land and avoid future road replacements (goodbye infrastructure deficit).

   Oh yeah and they won’t kill people. Human drivers kill one person every 25 seconds around the world. How is this not the PRIMARY reason we don’t hurry toward this future?

4. brian says:

   October 26, 2016 at 9:22 am

   I imagine a time in the not too distant future when everyone has solar panels on their roof and an electric car in the garage. The car will be an autonomous vehicle but rather than a cheap fleet vehicle it will be outfitted as my personal luxury suite. With the marginal cost of driving extremely low, many more people will be on the roads at the slightest whim and I see our current road infrastructure as inadequate to meet this huge new demand.

   We shall see… interesting time ahead!

5. jiHymas says:

   October 26, 2016 at 10:24 pm

   Here’s an article highlighting two views regarding ownership of these fleets.

6. stusclues says:

   October 27, 2016 at 6:34 pm

   While time will tell indeed Brian, I humbly suggest that the pimped up, private, luxury autonomous vehicle will belong to the 1% and enthusiasts. The rest will simply punt on ownership and use the cheap fleet owned by others.

   In the spirit of #famouslastwords James, I think Elon is wrong. Who wants the hassle of ownership and sharing when the alternative is so cheap? After all, unless it is the pimped up, luxury version alluded to above, cars are not vacation properties worth with ancillary benefits. One late night user after a pub crawl will put that one to bed.