Inflation fell today, but not uniformly:
Canada’s inflation rate fell to 3.4 per cent in May – the lowest it’s been since June 2021.
…
Statistics Canada reported Tuesday the slowdown was largely due to lower gasoline prices compared to a year ago.However, the long-awaited decline in food inflation has yet to come through in Canada. Grocery prices were up nine per cent on an annual basis, showing little improvement from April.
And so the markets were dovish:
The annual rate, which benefited from a comparison to last May’s strong price increases, is the slowest since June 2021 and broadly in line with the Bank of Canada’s expectation that inflation would cool to around 3% by mid-2023.
The average of two of the Bank of Canada’s core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 3.9% compared with 4.3% in April.
The Canadian dollar and bond markets had minimal reaction to the 830 am ET inflation data, with the five-year government bond yield last quoted at 3.723%, well below the 15-year high of 3.896% last week. The five-year bond yield influences fixed mortgage rates as well as some guaranteed investment certificate terms. The Canadian dollar dipped slightly against its U.S. counterpart following the data but soon recovered.
Interest rate probabilities based on trading in swaps markets now show about a 57% chance that Bank of Canada will hike rates by another quarter of a percentage point at its next policy meeting on July 12. That’s down from about 64% prior to the data.
Pre-CPI
Post-CPI
After intensive calculations, the Toronto Exchange has determined the ex-Dividend date for BNS.PR.J:
So I guess they’ll be paying a lot of overtime:
| HIMIPref™ Preferred Indices These values reflect the December 2008 revision of the HIMIPref™ Indices Values are provisional and are finalized monthly |
|||||||
| Index | Mean Current Yield (at bid) |
Median YTW |
Median Average Trading Value |
Median Mod Dur (YTW) |
Issues | Day’s Perf. | Index Value |
| Ratchet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0876 % | 2,202.1 |
| FixedFloater | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.0876 % | 4,223.7 |
| Floater | 10.67 % | 10.79 % | 42,156 | 8.97 | 1 | -0.0876 % | 2,434.1 |
| OpRet | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2570 % | 3,246.0 |
| SplitShare | 5.17 % | 8.64 % | 49,247 | 2.18 | 6 | -0.2570 % | 3,876.4 |
| Interest-Bearing | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.2570 % | 3,024.5 |
| Perpetual-Premium | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.2229 % | 2,563.2 |
| Perpetual-Discount | 6.66 % | 6.87 % | 39,662 | 12.68 | 31 | 0.2229 % | 2,795.0 |
| FixedReset Disc | 5.90 % | 8.50 % | 82,147 | 11.17 | 63 | -0.3522 % | 2,115.7 |
| Insurance Straight | 6.61 % | 6.70 % | 54,579 | 12.97 | 19 | -0.2741 % | 2,720.1 |
| FloatingReset | 11.40 % | 10.94 % | 29,796 | 8.87 | 2 | 0.3779 % | 2,371.7 |
| FixedReset Prem | 6.99 % | 7.14 % | 245,795 | 12.19 | 1 | -0.0795 % | 2,313.6 |
| FixedReset Bank Non | 0.00 % | 0.00 % | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | -0.3522 % | 2,162.7 |
| FixedReset Ins Non | 6.40 % | 7.95 % | 90,682 | 11.62 | 9 | 0.0368 % | 2,305.4 |
| Performance Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Change | Notes |
| PVS.PR.K | SplitShare | -2.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Hard Maturity Maturity Date : 2029-05-31 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 20.60 Bid-YTW : 8.38 % |
| BIP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | -1.50 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 20.98 Evaluated at bid price : 20.98 Bid-YTW : 9.23 % |
| FTS.PR.K | FixedReset Disc | -1.27 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 16.30 Evaluated at bid price : 16.30 Bid-YTW : 8.90 % |
| GWO.PR.T | Insurance Straight | -1.19 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 19.10 Evaluated at bid price : 19.10 Bid-YTW : 6.79 % |
| TRP.PR.A | FixedReset Disc | -1.09 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 13.60 Evaluated at bid price : 13.60 Bid-YTW : 9.94 % |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | -1.03 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.35 Evaluated at bid price : 17.35 Bid-YTW : 8.42 % |
| POW.PR.B | Perpetual-Discount | -1.01 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 19.56 Evaluated at bid price : 19.56 Bid-YTW : 6.87 % |
| CM.PR.Y | FixedReset Disc | 1.14 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 23.33 Evaluated at bid price : 23.85 Bid-YTW : 7.52 % |
| SLF.PR.J | FloatingReset | 1.16 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 14.81 Evaluated at bid price : 14.81 Bid-YTW : 10.94 % |
| POW.PR.C | Perpetual-Discount | 1.31 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 21.33 Evaluated at bid price : 21.60 Bid-YTW : 6.73 % |
| ELF.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 1.72 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 19.53 Evaluated at bid price : 19.53 Bid-YTW : 6.95 % |
| SLF.PR.E | Insurance Straight | 2.17 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.90 Evaluated at bid price : 17.90 Bid-YTW : 6.33 % |
| CU.PR.F | Perpetual-Discount | 2.46 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.52 Evaluated at bid price : 17.52 Bid-YTW : 6.51 % |
| CU.PR.D | Perpetual-Discount | 5.44 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 19.00 Evaluated at bid price : 19.00 Bid-YTW : 6.53 % |
| MIC.PR.A | Perpetual-Discount | 7.20 % | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 19.50 Evaluated at bid price : 19.50 Bid-YTW : 6.98 % |
| Volume Highlights | |||
| Issue | Index | Shares Traded |
Notes |
| TRP.PR.B | FixedReset Disc | 61,900 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 10.30 Evaluated at bid price : 10.30 Bid-YTW : 10.88 % |
| TD.PF.A | FixedReset Disc | 50,550 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.10 Evaluated at bid price : 17.10 Bid-YTW : 8.52 % |
| BN.PR.T | FixedReset Disc | 42,150 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 13.52 Evaluated at bid price : 13.52 Bid-YTW : 9.98 % |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | 29,804 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.48 Evaluated at bid price : 17.48 Bid-YTW : 8.76 % |
| TD.PF.B | FixedReset Disc | 27,250 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Limit Maturity Maturity Date : 2053-06-27 Maturity Price : 17.30 Evaluated at bid price : 17.30 Bid-YTW : 8.53 % |
| EIT.PR.A | SplitShare | 14,800 | YTW SCENARIO Maturity Type : Soft Maturity Maturity Date : 2024-03-14 Maturity Price : 25.00 Evaluated at bid price : 24.27 Bid-YTW : 9.40 % |
| There were 7 other index-included issues trading in excess of 10,000 shares. | |||
| Wide Spread Highlights | ||
| Issue | Index | Quote Data and Yield Notes |
| MFC.PR.N | FixedReset Ins Non | Quote: 16.15 – 17.60 Spot Rate : 1.4500 Average : 0.8634 YTW SCENARIO |
| BMO.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.75 – 18.99 Spot Rate : 1.2400 Average : 0.7169 YTW SCENARIO |
| CM.PR.O | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.22 – 18.00 Spot Rate : 0.7800 Average : 0.4748 YTW SCENARIO |
| RY.PR.M | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.35 – 18.00 Spot Rate : 0.6500 Average : 0.4446 YTW SCENARIO |
| MFC.PR.C | Insurance Straight | Quote: 17.41 – 18.35 Spot Rate : 0.9400 Average : 0.7360 YTW SCENARIO |
| NA.PR.S | FixedReset Disc | Quote: 17.48 – 18.00 Spot Rate : 0.5200 Average : 0.4288 YTW SCENARIO |
Hi
Thanks for keeping an eye on data accuracy in the tmxmoney web site (eg the xdate for BNS.PR.I) and generally letting your prefblog community know when information published on web sites are broken.
I have noticed mistakes in tmxmoney in the past in terms of dividend declaration information. On digging in a bit, it was my experience that tmxmoney uses quotemedia for at least the data associated with dividends. I found that quotemedia was responsive in terms of fixing the problem if reported through their support portal. Quotemedia opened a ticket and let me know when the data issue was resolved. From my perspective it was a positive customer experience as long as you acknowledge that mistakes can happen in the first place.
On digging in a bit, it was my experience that tmxmoney uses quotemedia for at least the data associated with dividends.
Well, it’s possible, but look at this notice to TMX issuers:
Some issuers don’t appear to bother (are you listening, Thomson-Reuters?).
Thanks for the additional context and information. There is more to this than I originally thought. Focusing on BNS.PR.I, there seems to be lots of entities to potentially point a finger at when there is broken dividend data showing up in tmxmoney.
For completeness, BNS did at least send a public news release on saying:
“TORONTO, May 24, 2023 /CNW/ – Scotiabank today announced a dividend on the outstanding shares of the Bank, payable July 27, 2023 to shareholders of record at the close of business on July 5, 2023: ” …etc
It’s probably not worth pursuing this further but there is at least one question if answered that would help pinpoint the source of the problem. Does TSX Reporting Form 5 declare the xdate or just the record date and the payable date? In other words, what entity determines the xdate and did they make that information available to quotemedia for BNS.PR.I. Quotemedia does show the correct payable date on their web site “Div. Pay Date 2023-07-27” but their xdate matches tmxmoney’s broken date of “Ex-Div Date 2023-07-03”.
Does TSX Reporting Form 5 declare the xdate or just the record date and the payable date?
As noted in the link & quote I gave, it is the TMX that determines the ex-Date, not the issuer. I remember seeing … somewhere … a TSX Staff Notice to Issuers (?) stating very sternly that issuers are not allowed to determine the ex-date themselves and put it in their news release.
Whoops! Thanks for the clarification.
I’ve opened a ticket with Quotemedia to request a fix to the xdate problem for BNS.PR.I. Hopefully they’ll fix the problem for the BNS common share as well.