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DBRS Limited (Morningstar DBRS) has announced that it:

changed the trend to Negative from Stable and confirmed the Issuer Rating and Senior Unsecured Debentures rating of Artis Real Estate Investment Trust (Artis or the REIT) at BBB (low) and its Preferred Trust Units rating at Pfd-3 (low).

KEY CREDIT RATING CONSIDERATIONS
The Negative trend reflects the sustained deterioration of EBITDA interest coverage beyond Morningstar DBRS’ prior year expectation of 2.7 times (x) or above because of the REIT’s high proportion of variable rate debt. Morningstar DBRS anticipates a modest improvement in the coverage in the medium term as the REIT continues to execute its Business Transformation Plan through monetizing assets and using the proceeds to repay further variable rate debt. However, Morningstar DBRS notes that, given the increased variable rate debt in an elevated interest rate environment and an already weakened coverage ratio, Artis has less cushion for the current leverage at the given rating level. Morningstar DBRS has also revised its assessment of the REIT’s portfolio size lower as the REIT continues to shrink in size following the asset dispositions carried out in the last 12 months ended (LTM) September 30, 2023. Morningstar DBRS believes that the weakening of the REIT’s financial risk metrics and declining market presence, coupled with its relatively smaller size for the current rating category, increase the possibility of a downgrade action in the near future.

CREDIT RATING DRIVERS
All else equal, Morningstar DBRS would consider downgrading Artis should it fail to achieve a Morningstar DBRS EBITDA interest coverage ratio of 1.83x or better on a sustained basis, or should the Morningstar DBRS total debt-to-EBITDA not improve to 8.6x or better on a sustained basis in the near term. Also, further negative rating actions could occur if the REIT’s debt maturity profile remains short on a sustained basis in the near term. Conversely, Morningstar DBRS would consider restoring a Stable trend should either of these metrics be comfortably achieved on a sustained basis, all else equal.

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
Morningstar DBRS projects the Morningstar DBRS EBITDA interest coverage metrics to weaken and fluctuate in the 1.6x range by YE2023 and YE2024, primarily because of the REIT’s greater cost of debt as a result of its high variable debt exposure. The Morningstar DBRS debt-to-EBITDA is forecast to increase in the high 9x range at YE2023 because of the loss of EBITDA from recent asset sales carried out in 2023 before showing modest improvement to the high 8x range at YE2024. This improvement will be largely driven by the REIT’s asset monetization plans as demonstrated by the recent sale of its Calgary/Winnipeg Retail portfolio for aggregate proceeds of $222 million, which is expected to close in H1 2024. Morningstar DBRS understands the net disposition proceeds will be used to repay further debt. For comparative purposes, the REIT had Morningstar DBRS total debt-to-EBITDA and EBITDA interest coverage ratios of 9.2x and 1.84x, respectively, as of the LTM ended September 30, 2023.

CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
The rating confirmation is supported by (1) Artis’ well-diversified, albeit reduced, stable and recurrent income-producing portfolio through economic cycles; (2) strong tenant and property diversification; and (3) lack of aggressive expansion and development activities. The rating is constrained by (1) Artis’ weak interest coverage amid a high interest rate environment and elevated leverage for the REIT’s portfolio size and EBITDA; (2) lack of scale in any markets that it operates; and (3) the smaller portfolio size on both EBITDA and square footage bases relative to the BBB (low) rating category.

Affected issues are AX.PR.E AND AX.PR.I.

This entry was posted on Friday, February 2nd, 2024 at 7:53 pm and is filed under Issue Comments. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.