Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

DBRS Places VSN On Review-Negative

Veresen Inc. has announced:

it will pursue the sale of its power generation business and will suspend its Premium Dividend™ and Dividend Reinvestment Plan. Proceeds from the divestiture will be invested to develop Veresen’s significant inventory of contracted capital projects in the core natural gas and NGL infrastructure business.

Divestiture of Power Business and Funding Strategy

Veresen’s power business, which consists of approximately 625 MW of primarily renewable and gas-fired generation, is expected to contribute EBITDA of approximately $100 million in 2016 and had asset level debt financing of $382 million at June 30, 2016. Veresen has engaged TD Securities Inc. as the company’s sole financial advisor on the divestiture of the power business.

Veresen intends to initially apply the proceeds of the sale of the power business to reduce its debt outstanding and subsequently fund the remaining equity component of projects currently under construction through 2018. At the end of the second quarter, approximately $535 million of the aggregate $1.4 billion of capital required to complete Veresen’s existing capital projects had been incurred, with a remaining equity component of approximately $350 to $450 million. The enhanced funding plan will meaningfully improve the company’s balance sheet strength at closing, eliminating the need for external equity financing for these projects and increasing growth on a per share basis.

Dividend and Suspension of DRIP

Veresen’s Board of Directors has confirmed the annualized dividend rate of $1.00 per Common Share. As a result of the growth and diversification of Veresen’s businesses over the last five years, the dividend is now underpinned entirely by distributable cash from take-or-pay and fee-for-service businesses with a weighted average contract life of over eight years.

In response, DBRS has announced that it:

has today placed the Issuer Rating, Senior Unsecured Notes rating and Preferred Share rating of Veresen Inc. (Veresen or the Company) Under Review with Negative Implications. The rating actions follow the Company’s announcement that it will pursue the sale of its power generation business and will suspend its Premium Dividend and Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) from August 2016. Proceeds from the divestiture of the power business will be invested to develop Veresen’s significant inventory of approximately CAD 1.4 billion of contracted capital projects in the core natural gas and natural gas liquids infrastructure business. The Company will also maintain its current dividend payout.

DBRS believes that the above-noted announcement is negative with respect to Veresen’s business risk profile.

DBRS notes that Veresen had previously planned to fund its share of the large capital expenditure program at Veresen Midstream by raising equity through its DRIP. Veresen’s decision to suspend the DRIP and maintain its high dividend payout is expected to erode the Company’s equity base from current levels, resulting in higher non-consolidated leverage. The net proceeds from the proposed sale of power assets after repaying related subsidiary level debt (CAD 382 million at June 30, 2016) are expected to fund Veresen’s large capital expenditure program. Although, this results in an initial reduction in leverage, Veresen will likely need incremental borrowings to fund its capex and dividend commitments going forward. As a result, the Company’s non-consolidated credit metrics are likely to be weak in the medium term.

Overall, DBRS believes that the weakness in Veresen’s business risk profile will not be mitigated by any meaningful improvement in the Company’s financial risk profile and will likely result in lower ratings. DBRS recognizes that there are execution risks related to the sale of the power business, and any delays in the execution and change in market conditions could affect the Company’s financial risk profile. Consequently, DBRS has placed Versen’s ratings Under Review with Negative Implications. DBRS expects any downgrade of the Company’s ratings to be one notch. DBRS will further review the details relating to the sale of the power business as they become available, with a view to resolving the Under Review with Negative Implications status.

Affected issues are VSN.PR.A, VSN.PR.C and VSN.PR.E.

Issue Comments

BPO Preferreds Guaranteed by BPY: Review-Developing, Says DBRS

Brookfield Office Properties has announced (although not yet on their website):

that BPY and other related entities of BPY have provided full and unconditional guarantees (the “Guarantees”) for all of the Company’s Class AAA Preference Shares (the “Preference Shares”) and all of the debt securities of the Company issued pursuant to its indenture dated December 8, 2009 (the “Debt Securities”).

At the time of entering into the Guarantees, the Company had C$2,363 million of Preference Shares outstanding and C$350 million principal amount of Debt Securities outstanding. As a result of the Guarantees, the Company has received an exemption from the requirements to file certain continuous disclosure documents with Canadian securities regulators, including financial statements, on the basis that holders of the Preference Shares and the Debt Securities will have access to certain continuous disclosure filings on BPY as the guarantor. Certain financial information of the Company will be included in the consolidated summary financial information in BPY’s consolidated annual financial statements and interim reports going forward. This will simplify the Company’s reporting requirements and reduce costs.

Each of the Guarantees will terminate (subject to any existing rights or claims at the time of such termination) upon, among other things, the date that no Preference Shares or Debt Securities, respectively, are outstanding. A copy of the Guarantees have been filed on SEDAR under the profile of the Company. Investors should refer to that filing for the complete terms of the Guarantees.

In response, DBRS has announced that it:

has today placed the ratings of Brookfield Office Properties Inc.’s (Brookfield or the Company) Senior Unsecured Notes and Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Class AAA (Preferred Shares) Under Review with Developing Implications. This rating action follows the announcement yesterday that Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) and other related entities of BPY will provide full and unconditional guarantees for all of Brookfield’s Senior Unsecured Notes ($350 million in principal amounts) and all of Brookfield’s Preferred Shares ($2.4 billion outstanding) at the time of entering into the guarantees.

DBRS will review the implications of the announcement and assess the credit risk profile of BPY, which is an indirect holding company of Brookfield, against the DBRS methodology, “Rating Holding Companies and Their Subsidiaries” (January 2016). DBRS will also review the guarantee documents for Brookfield’s Senior Unsecured Notes and Preferred Shares against the DBRS Criteria “Guarantees and Other Forms of Support” (February 2016). DBRS aims to resolve the Under Review status over the next several weeks.

Affected issues are: BPO.PR.A, BPO.PR.C, BPO.PR.J, BPO.PR.K, BPO.PR.N, BPO.PR.P, BPO.PR.R, BPO.PR.T, BPO.PR.W BPO.PR.X and BPO.PR.Y.

It is interesting to see another company reduce its reporting obligations by having its parent reporting issuer provide a guarantee. RONA recently did the same with a guarantee from Lowe’s.

Issue Comments

BIP.PR.C Strong On Excellent Volume

Brookfield Infrastructure has announced:

the completion of its previously announced issue of Cumulative Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 5 (“Series 5 Preferred Units”) in the amount of $250,000,000. The offering was underwritten by a syndicate led by TD Securities Inc., CIBC Capital Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and Scotiabank.

Brookfield Infrastructure issued 10,000,000 Series 5 Preferred Units at a price of $25.00 per unit, for total gross proceeds of $250,000,000. Holders of the Series 5 Preferred Units will be entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed distribution yielding 5.35% annually for the initial period ending September 30, 2021. Thereafter, the distribution rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the greater of: (i) the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 4.64%, and (ii) 5.35%. The Series 5 Preferred Units will commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange this morning under the ticker symbol BIP.PR.C.

BIP.PR.C is a FixedReset 5.35%+464M535 issue announced 2016-7-25. It will be remembered that distributions from this issue are not Eligible Dividends, but will be a mixture of Return of Capital and Ordinary Income, in proportions that will change from year to year.

The issue traded 1,330,574 shares today in a range of 25.31-45 before closing at 25.37-38, 10×133.

This issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex. Vital statistics are:

BIP.PR.C FixedReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Call
Maturity Date : 2021-09-30
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 25.37
Bid-YTW : 5.06 %
Issue Comments

BCE.PR.I / BCE.PR.J: Ratchet Proportion Increases 35 Points To 58%

BCE Inc. has announced:

that 5,081,951 of its 10,754,990 fixed-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series AI (“Series AI Preferred Shares”) have been tendered for conversion on August 1, 2016, on a one-for-one basis, into floating-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series AJ (“Series AJ Preferred Shares”). In addition, 276,845 of its 3,245,010 Series AJ Preferred Shares have been tendered for conversion on August 1, 2016, on a one-for-one basis, into Series AI Preferred Shares. Consequently, on August 1, 2016, BCE will have 5,949,884 Series AI Preferred Shares and 8,050,116 Series AJ Preferred Shares issued and outstanding. The Series AI Preferred Shares and the Series AJ Preferred Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols BCE.PR.I and BCE.PR.J, respectively.

The Series AI Preferred Shares will pay on a quarterly basis, for the five-year period beginning on August 1, 2016, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE, a fixed cash dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 2.75%.

The Series AJ Preferred Shares will continue to pay a monthly floating adjustable cash dividend for the five-year period beginning on August 1, 2016, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of BCE. The monthly floating adjustable dividend for any particular month will continue to be calculated based on the prime rate for such month and using the Designated Percentage for such month representing the sum of an adjustment factor (based on the market price of the Series AJ Preferred Shares in the preceding month) and the Designated Percentage for the preceding month.

The issues closed the day at 13.45-64 (BCE.PR.I) and 13.95-10 (BCE.PR.J), resulting in an implied Canada Prime breakeven rate of 3.25%. This is consistent with other FixedFloater / RatchetRate Strong Pairs and up from the mid-July break-even rate of about 3.00%. Assiduous Readers will remember that I advised converting to, or continuing to hold, BCE.PR.J

Issue Comments

FTS.PR.E To Be Redeemed

Fortis Inc. has announced:

Fortis will redeem all of the issued and outstanding First Preference Shares, Series “E” of the Corporation in accordance with their terms on or about 1 September 2016. The redemption price will be $25.3063 in cash for each share, being equal to $25.00 plus $0.3063, representing the amount of the accrued and unpaid dividends per share for the period from and including 1 June 2016 to but not including 1 September 2016. A notice of redemption providing additional details will be mailed to the registered holders of First Preference Shares, Series E on or about 29 July 2016.

FTS.PR.E commenced trading on 2004-7-16 as a 4.9% 12-year Operating Retractible. It is currently redeemable at par and becomes retractible for common shares September 1, 2016 – but that option has now been superseded by the redemption. FTS.PR.E has been tracked by HIMIPref™ since issued and is currently the sole member of the Operating Retractible subindex.

Issue Comments

DBRS Maintains Negative Trend on Bank Debt; Preferreds Stable

DBRS has announced that it:

has today maintained the Negative trend on the senior and subordinated debt ratings of the Royal Bank of Canada, The Toronto-Dominion Bank, the Bank of Nova Scotia, the Bank of Montreal, the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, the National Bank of Canada and their subsidiaries. Additionally, the Negative trend has been maintained on related short-term ratings that might be affected by a long-term rating change under DBRS methodologies. The ratings were previously revised to Negative from Stable on May 20, 2015, to reflect the declining likelihood of systemic support. For details on the rating actions on specific banks, please see their separate press releases.

The maintenance of the Negative trend reflects DBRS’s view that ongoing changes in Canadian legislation and regulation still indicate that the potential for timely systemic support for these six banks that DBRS considers systemically important institutions is declining, leading to a likely change in DBRS’s support assessment to SA3 from SA2 for these banks. Currently, the six banks’ final ratings benefit from an uplift of one notch above their intrinsic assessments because of the SA2 support assessment.

The legislation enacting the bank recapitalization, or bail-in, regime is moving forward, but DBRS does not yet have sufficient clarity on the details of the implementation to remove the benefit of systemic support from the affected ratings. Most recently, the Budget Implementation Act (Bill C-15) passed on June 8, 2016, included proposed amendments to existing legislation to enable the appropriate statutory powers for the bail-in regime. According to the Department of Finance Canada, the proposed amendments include permitting the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions to designate the domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs) to which the bail-in regime would apply, providing new powers for the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) to carry out a bail-in by converting the eligible debt of a D-SIB that was determined to be non-viable into common shares, enabling CDIC to resolve a failed bank by taking temporary control of a non-viable bank to carry out a bail-in conversion, updating the process for investors to seek redress and revising the amount of minimum regulatory capital and debt subject to the new bail-in conversion power for D-SIBs (Department of Finance Canada, Bill C-15 – Budget Implementation Act 2016, No. 1 – Part 4: Various Measures, http://www.fin.gc.ca/pub/C15/04-eng.asp (May 10, 2016)). This will require amendments to be made to the Bank Act, the CDIC Act, the Financial Administration Act, the Payment Clearing and Settlement Act and the Winding-up and Restructuring Act.

This was reiterated in statements for each of the Big Six Banks … with some commentary regarding the highly topical housing costs issue:

BNS:

DBRS remains concerned over the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. Nonetheless, Scotiabank’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Indeed, the Bank purchased bulk insurance on an additional portion of this portfolio during Q2 2016. Following this additional purchase, 62% of Scotiabank’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is now insured, while the loan-to-value of the uninsured portion is very conservative at 51%. Alberta, the province most exposed to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured.

RY:

DBRS remains concerned about the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in the greater Vancouver and Toronto areas. Nonetheless, RBC’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Indeed, 46% of RBC’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is now insured, while the loan-to-value ratio of the uninsured portion is conservative at 56%. Alberta, the most exposed province to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured.

CM:

The Bank’s overall asset quality remains strong with impaired loans and provisions remaining at very low levels. CIBC’s overall credit quality benefits from the performance of its large and low-risk residential mortgage portfolio, which is 61% insured. However, DBRS remains concerned about the significant appreciation in housing prices, particularly in and around Toronto and Vancouver. Meanwhile, CIBC’s outstanding loan balances to the troubled resource sector are very manageable, with oil and gas comprising approximately 2% of loans and mining comprising less than 1%.

BMO:

DBRS remains concerned over the significant appreciation seen in housing prices, particularly in and around Vancouver and Toronto. Nonetheless, BMO’s residential mortgage portfolio appears conservatively underwritten or is insured. Specifically, 59% of BMO’s Canadian residential mortgage portfolio is insured, while the loan-to-value of the uninsured portion is a very conservative 57%. Meanwhile, loss rates for the past four quarters have been less than one basis point. Alberta, the province most exposed to the energy sector, represents 16% of the total residential mortgage portfolio and is primarily insured. The resource sector also remains challenged, but overall exposures to oil & gas and mining total less than 3% of the total loan portfolio.

NA:

National’s currently strong earnings power benefits from a very good revenue mix, modestly improving expense levels and generally low credit costs. However, National reported two issues in 2016 that have negatively affected earnings, including the $164 million pre-tax write-down of its investment in Maple Financial Group (MFG) and a $250 million pre-tax sectoral provision related to its oil & gas portfolio. Please see the DBRS commentaries on these two events dated May 5, 2016, and February 8, 2016, for more information.

TD:

TD’s risk profile remains strong, as evidenced by its still quite favourable credit quality indicators, though DBRS views current levels as likely unsustainable, given how low they are compared with historical norms. Similar to peers, the Bank’s oil & gas portfolio was pressured in recent periods but remains highly manageable, representing less than 1% of total loans. Moreover, DBRS anticipates seeing some signs of deterioration in other parts of the loan portfolio in the near to intermediate term, given the above-average debt levels of Canadian consumers, rapidly rising housing prices and expected credit quality trend reversion. Importantly, DBRS remains comforted by TD’s track record and disciplined approach to risk management.

Issue Comments

BMO.PR.Q To Reset At 1.805%

Bank of Montreal has announced (although not yet on their website):

the applicable dividend rates for its Non-Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Class B Preferred Shares, Series 25 (the “Preferred Shares Series 25”) and Non-Cumulative Floating Rate Class B Preferred Shares, Series 26 (the “Preferred Shares Series 26”).

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 25 that remain outstanding after August 25, 2016, commencing as of such date, holders thereof will be entitled to receive fixed rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank and subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the five-year period commencing on August 25, 2016, and ending on August 24, 2021, will be 1.805 per cent, being equal to the sum of the five-year Government of Canada bond yield as at July 26, 2016, plus 1.15 per cent, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 25.

With respect to any Preferred Shares Series 26 that may be issued on August 25, 2016, holders thereof will be entitled to receive floating rate non-cumulative preferential cash dividends on a quarterly basis, calculated on the basis of the actual number of days elapsed in each quarterly floating rate period divided by 365, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Bank and subject to the provisions of the Bank Act (Canada). The dividend rate for the three-month period commencing on August 25, 2016, and ending on November 24, 2016, will be 1.622 per cent, being equal to the sum of the three-month Government of Canada Treasury bill yield as at July 26, 2016, plus 1.15 per cent, as determined in accordance with the terms of the Preferred Shares Series 26.

Beneficial owners of Preferred Shares Series 25 who wish to exercise their right of conversion should communicate as soon as possible with their broker or other nominee and ensure that they follow their instructions in order to ensure that they meet the deadline to exercise such right, which is 5:00 p.m. (EDT) on August 10, 2016.

Conversion enquiries should be directed to BMO’s Registrar and Transfer Agent, Computershare Trust Company of Canada, at 1-800-340-5021.

I previously reported that this issue will be extended.

BMO.PR.Q is a FixedReset, 3.90%+115, that commenced trading 2011-3-11 after being announced 2011-3-2.

The new rate therefore represents a 54% cut in dividends. Ouch!

This issue has been tracked by HIMIPref™ and is a member of the FixedResets index. A hardMaturity at par dated 2022-1-31 has been added to the call schedule indicated by the prospectus to reflect an anticipated call due to the issues lack of a NVCC clause and OSFI’s refusal to grandfather such issues – but note that this Deemed Maturity is a matter of analysis, not a formal commitment of the issuer!

As noted, the deadline to notify the company regarding conversion is 5:00 p.m. (EDT) on August 10, 2016; brokers will have internal deadlines a day or two in advance.

I will post a recommendation regarding whether or not to convert closer to the deadline.

Issue Comments

RON.PR.A, RON.PR.B Upgraded to P-2 by S&P

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •Boucherville, Que.-based RONA Inc. recently announced that Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (A-/Stable/A-2) has provided guarantees of the obligations under RONA’s preferred shares and debentures outstanding.
  • •As a result, we are raising our issue-level rating on RONA’s senior unsecured notes to ‘A-‘ from ‘BBB+’ and our global scale rating on the company’s preferred shares to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘.
  • •At the same time, we are affirming our ‘BBB+’ long-term corporate credit rating on RONA.
  • •The stable outlook on RONA reflects our stable outlook on Lowe’s and our expectation that over our two-year outlook horizon, RONA’s stand-alone business and financial risk profiles should be unchanged.


RONA recently announced that Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (A-/Stable/A-2) has guaranteed RONA’s preferred shares outstanding as well as the company’s 5.4% debentures due Oct. 20, 2016.

“We base the upgrade on Lowe’s guarantee of RONA’s preferred shares and debentures outstanding,” said S&P Global Ratings credit analyst Alessio Di Francesco.

In our opinion, this guarantee has enhanced the credit profile of these issues resulting in a one-notch upgrade. Our rating on RONA’s senior unsecured debentures is now equalized with our ‘A-‘ issue-level rating on Lowe’s senior unsecured notes. Our ‘BBB’ global scale rating on RONA’s preferred shares is two notches below our long-term corporate credit rating on Lowe’s (guarantor). The notching incorporates our view that the preferred shares have an optional deferral feature and are subordinated to Lowe’s debt outstanding.

The guarantee by Lowe’s has been previously reported on PrefBlog. DBRS has discontinued its rating of RONA, so the S&P rating is the only one available. S&P previously rated the issues P-2(low) following the closing of the takeover via Plan of Arrangement on May 20. RONA’s preferred shareholders turned down a $20 cash offer that was part of the plan. Since March 31, the TXPR total return index has returned +5.42%, while RON.PR.A is up 3.75% from the $20 offer.

Issue Comments

CSE.PR.A: No Conversion

Capstone Infrastructure Corporation has announced:

that none of its Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset Preferred Shares, Series A (the “Series A shares”) will be converted into Cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares, Series B (the “Series B shares”).

On June 10, 2016, Capstone notified holders of Series A shares that they could elect to convert their Series A shares into Series B shares, subject to the terms and conditions of those shares. One such condition is that, following conversion, there be at least 1,000,000 Series B shares outstanding or else no Series A shares will be converted.

As of 5:00 p.m. (EST) on July 18, 2016, the end of the period during which holders of Series A shares could elect to convert their Series A shares into Series B shares, elections for conversion into Series B shares were received in respect of only 429,367 of the 3,000,000 outstanding Series A shares. As a result, the above condition is not satisfied and no Series A shares will be converted into Series B shares. All holders of Series A shares will continue to hold Series A shares.

As previously announced, for the five year period from and including July 31, 2016 to but excluding July 31, 2021, the fixed annual dividend rate for the Series A shares has been set at 3.271% per share, payable in equal quarterly amounts on the last day of each of the months of January, April, July and October if, as and when dividends are declared by the Board of Directors of Corporation.

I have previously reported on the extension of CSE.PR.A, the reset to 3.271% and recommended against conversion.

Issue Comments

BCE.PR.I / BCE.PR.J : Convert Or Hold?

It will be recalled that BCE.PR.I will reset to 2.75% effective August 1.

Holders of BCE.PR.I have the option to convert to the RatchetRate issue, BCE.PR.J, which pays a percentage of Canada Prime on the par value of $25.00. The percentage is currently 100% and will not decline unless the trading price of BCE.PR.J rises above $25, which seems rather unlikely in the current environment. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is July 22, 2016; but note that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion.

It will also be noted that holders of BCE.PR.J have the option of converting to BCE.PR.I. After the dust settled following the last Exchange Date five years ago, about 25% of the total was BCE.PR.J.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., BCE.PR.I and BCE.PR.J, which will have another Exchange Date in five years). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedFloater / RatchetRate Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average Canada Prime rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_FF_160719
Click for Big

There’s a fair bit of scatter, but most pairs are within shouting distance of a 2.70% breakeven rate – that is, most pairs are priced such that the total return of the component issues will be equal if Canada Prime remains at 2.70% until the relevant Exchange Date.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see.

And, of course, since BCE.PR.I will reset to 2.75%, this is equivalent to saying the prices currently and the prices expected to be effective following the Exchange Date are roughly equal. I do not believe that any gains can be expected to be made, or losses expected to be avoided, by holding either issue.

However, on a looking forward basis, I find it more believable that the average Canada Prime over the next five years will exceed 2.70% than I find it to believe that the rate will average lower than current.

Therefore, I recommend that holders of BCE.PR.I convert to BCE.PR.J and that holders of BCE.PR.J continue to hold their shares.

Note that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of BCE.PR.I will remain after all instructions are executed, then all BCE.PR.I will be converted and no BCE.PR.J will convert to BCE.PR.I. And the other way ’round, of course, if practically everybody wants to hold BCE.PR.I. However, this is relatively rare: all 51 Strong Pairs currently extant have some version of this condition and all but six have both series outstanding.