Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

OSP.PR.A Downgraded to Pfd-3 by DBRS

DBRS has announced that it:

has today downgraded the Preferred Shares issued by Brompton Oil Split Corp. (the Company) to Pfd-3 from Pfd-3 (high). On February 24, 2015, the Company issued 2,800,000 Preferred Shares and 2,800,000 Class A Shares at an issue price of $10.00 per Preferred Share and $15.00 per Class A Share for a total of $70,000,000 in gross proceeds. Both classes of shares are scheduled to mature on March 31, 2020.

Net proceeds from the offering were used to invest in common shares of at least 15 large capitalization North American oil and gas issuers (the Portfolio) selected from the S&P 500 Index and the S&P/TSX Composite Index. In addition, the Company may also invest up to 25% of the Portfolio value in the common shares of issuers listed on the S&P 500 Index or the S&P/TSX Composite Index that satisfy its investment criteria, operating in energy subsectors including equipment, services, pipelines, transportation and infrastructure.

Dividends received on the Portfolio are used to pay a fixed cumulative quarterly distribution to holders of the Preferred Shares of $0.1250 per Preferred Share ($0.50 per annum or 5.0% per annum on the initial issue price of $10.00 per Preferred Share). Holders of the Capital Shares are expected to receive a regular monthly non-cumulative cash distribution of $0.10 per Class A Share ($1.20 per annum), subject to the asset coverage test which does not permit any distributions to holders of the Class A Shares if the net asset value (NAV) of the Company falls below $15.00.

As of February 5, 2016, the dividend coverage ratio is 1.36. The downside protection available to holders of the Preferred Shares is approximately 37%. Since the initial rating in February 2015, the oil and energy equity markets have experienced a decline in prices which is reflected in the Company’s NAV. The level of downside protection currently available to the Preferred Shares and the asset coverage test to permit distributions on the Capital Shares support the Pfd-3 rating on the Preferred Shares.

As of February 11, the NAVPU of OSP / OSP.PR.A was 15.08. The issue commenced trading 2015-2-24 after being announced 2015-1-7.

OSP.PR.A is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Issue Comments

AZP Upgraded To P-5(high) by S&P

Amidst all the wreckage of the past … year, it’s nice to see a little ray of sunshine!

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •U.S. power generator Atlantic Power Corp. (APC) has reduced its debt leverage substantially over the past 18 months.
  • •We are raising our corporate credit ratings on Atlantic Power Corp. (APC)
    and affiliate Atlantic Power Ltd. Partnership (APLP) to ‘B+’ from ‘B’. The outlook is stable.

  • •In addition, we are raising the issue ratings on the $600 million secured term loan facility ($473 million outstanding) and $210 million secured revolving credit facility to ‘BB-‘ from ‘B+’. The recovery rating on this debt remains ‘2’, indicating expectations of substantial (70% to 90%, at the higher end of the range) recovery in a payment default.
  • •At the same time, we raised our rating on the C$210 million 5.95% medium-term notes (MTN) due 2036 to ‘BB’ from ‘BB-‘. The recovery rating on this debt remains ‘1’, indicating expectations of very high (90% to 100%) in a default.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the company will use excess cash flow to sweep down debt and its consolidated debt to EBITDA will decline to about 5.75x to 6.0x by year-end 2016.


About $835 million of rated debt is currently outstanding, consisting of about $473 million of the term loan B, $210 million of revolving credit facility and C$210 million (U.S.$151 million) of medium-term notes. There is about $108 million of nonrecourse project level debt and about $288 million of U.S and Canadian dollar denominated convertible unsecured subordinate debentures that we do not rate. The company’s capital structure also has C$225 million of perpetual preferred stock.

The company has sold five non-APLP wind assets along with which about $250 million of nonrecourse project debt was also transferred. The company has also refocused its strategy on maintaining and optimizing its fleet instead of growing its portfolio. As a result of these changes, we believe the company is structured more as a corporate issuer than a developer and now assess Atlantic Power under our corporate rating methodology.

“Our ‘B+’ corporate credit rating on APC reflects our assessment of its business risk profile as fair and a financial risk profile as highly leveraged,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Aneesh Prabhu. Our business risk assessment reflects the company’s reliance on distributions from its underlying portfolio of power generation projects, limited scale, its near-term focus on operational improvements in its existing assets rather than growth projects to increase cash flow, and a portfolio that is mostly contracted in the medium term but has recontracting risk emerging from 2020. The financial risk profile reflects high consolidated debt per kilowatt and credit measures commensurate with an assessment of a highly leveraged financial risk profile.

A deterioration in financials because of operating cost increases in the short term, or an inability to recontract expiring PPAs over the next year, could pressure financial measures. We would lower the ratings if consolidated debt to EBITDA deteriorates above 6.5x with no expectation of an immediate decline.

A ratings upgrade will result if cash flow sweeps result in adjusted FFO to debt improving above 12% on a sustained basis, or if consolidated debt to EBITDA declines below 5.25x. We could see this happen by year-end 2017 if cash flow sweeps occur as expected in our base-case.

Affected issues are AZP.PR.A, AZP.PR.B and AZP.PR.C, which are issued by Atlantic Power Preferred Equity Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary.

Issue Comments

BEP.PR.E Listed

BEP.PR.E, which has resulted from a 41% conversion from BRF.PR.E commenced trading today.

“Trading” is perhaps a misnomer, because not a single share changed hands; fortunately, the well compensated and strictly supervised market maker stepped up to the plate and the issue closed 16.00-21.00, 9×2, a mere $5 spread.

BEP.PR.E will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

BEP.PR.E Perpetual-Discount YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Limit Maturity
Maturity Date : 2046-02-11
Maturity Price : 16.00
Evaluated at bid price : 16.00
Bid-YTW : 8.86 %
Issue Comments

AQN: Outlook Negative, Says S&P

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. has announced:

Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. to Acquire The Empire District Electric Company in C$3.4 Billion (US$2.4 Billion) Transaction

Company Release – 02/09/2016 16:00

Acquisition is expected to be significantly accretive to EPS and FFOPS

Highlights:

  • • Major regulated utility acquisition results in a pro-forma Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. asset base of C$8.9 billion
  • • Empire shareholders to receive US$34.00 per common share in cash, representing a 21% premium to the closing share price on February 8, 2016
  • • Aggregate purchase price of C$3.4 billion (US$2.4 billion), including assumed debt, represents a 1.49×1 multiple of Empire’s projected rate base and a 9.2×2 multiple of Empire’s 2017 EBITDA
  • • Expected to be immediately accretive to APUC’s earnings per share (EPS) and funds from operations per share (FFOPS), positioning APUC for further growth
  • • Average annual accretion to EPS and FFOPS expected to be approximately 7% to 9% and 12% to 14%, respectively, for the three year period following closing
  • • Acquisition is aligned with APUC’s financial objectives and provides continuing support to APUC’s 10% annual dividend growth rate target
  • • APUC’s financing plan designed to maintain strong investment grade credit rating
  • • Shifts APUC’s overall business mix towards regulated operations, with EBITDA from regulated operations increasing from 51% to 72%2
  • • Empire has complementary operations in the States of Missouri and Arkansas, with regional headquarters located in Joplin, Missouri
  • • Empire has an experienced management team committed to providing customers with safe, reliable, cost effective utility services
  • • Empire will maintain its headquarters in Joplin after the acquisition
  • • APUC expects to retain all existing Empire employees and the Empire management team will lead Liberty Utilities’ Central US Region
  • • Empire’s customer rates unaffected by the acquisition

They later announced:

that APUC [Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.] and its direct wholly-owned subsidiary, Liberty Utilities (Canada) Corp. (the “Selling Debentureholder”), have entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters (the “Underwriters”) led by CIBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank, under which the Underwriters have agreed to buy, on a bought deal basis, C$1 billion aggregate principal amount of 5.00% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures (“Debentures”) of APUC (the “Offering”). In connection with the Offering, the underwriters have also been granted a 15% over-allotment option to purchase additional Debentures within 30 days from the date of the closing of the Offering solely to cover over-allotments, if any, and for market stabilization purposes.

All Debentures are being sold on an instalment basis at a price of C$1,000 per Debenture, of which C$333 is payable on the closing of the Offering (the “First Instalment”) and the remaining C$667 (the “Final Instalment”) is payable on a date (the “Final Instalment Date”) to be fixed by APUC following satisfaction of all conditions precedent to the closing of APUC’s acquisition of The Empire District Electric Company (NYSE:EDE) (“Empire”).

So S&P has slapped ‘Outlook-Negative’ on them:

  • •On Feb. 9, Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. announced the US$2.4 billion proposed acquisition of Empire District Electric Co., a Missouri-based utility.
  • •The cash portion of the proposed acquisition is partly being financed with the issuance of convertible debentures, with this additional debt pushing Algonquin’s adjusted funds from operations-to-debt to below 14%.
  • •We are revising our outlook on Algonquin and its subsidiaries Algonquin Power Co. and Liberty Utilities Co. to negative from stable to reflect the execution risk of the transaction and the potential for lower ratings stemming from the limited ability to absorb weaker financial performance.
  • •We are also revising the industry risk score to low from intermediate to reflect the increase in Algonquin’s consolidated cash flow that comes from regulated utilities.
  • •We are also affirming all ratings on the companies, including our ‘BBB’ long-term corporate credit rating on Algonquin.


The debentures have features that encourage holders to convert, such as interest payments ceasing on closing of the acquisition. However, we treat the debentures as debt until they convert. As a result of this analytical treatment, we expect adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)-to-debt to decline to about 10.5% until the debentures are fully converted to equity, which is below our 14% downgrade threshold for the rating.

The negative outlook reflects our expectation that APUC’s credit metrics will materially weaken in 2016 due to the issuance of convertible debentures to finance in part the cash purchase of Empire. Although we expect that the debentures will have a very high likelihood of conversion in 2017 when the transaction closes, in the meantime we expect that credit metrics will be weak for the rating, eliminating any financial cushion at the current rating level. The negative outlook also reflects the execution risk associated with the additional equity and debt necessary to support the transaction and to fund the company’s ongoing development plans.

We could lower the ratings on APUC if the company is unable to execute its development projects and acquisitions with financing arrangements of debt and equity that lead to AFFO to total debt below 14% by 2017 once the convertible debentures have converted.

We could revise the outlook to stable if the proposed equity issuance occurs as contemplated and APUC achieves AFFO to debt of 14% on a consistent basis.

Affected issues are AQN.PR.A and AQN.PR.D. Both are tracked by HIMIPref™ but are relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Update, 2016-2-11: Review-Developing by DBRS:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today placed the BBB (low) Issuer Rating and Pfd-3 (low) Preferred Shares ratings of Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (APUC or the Company) Under Review with Developing Implications. This rating action follows the announcement that the Company has entered into an agreement and plan of merger pursuant to which Liberty Utilities Co. (LUC) will indirectly acquire The Empire District Electric Company (Empire) and its subsidiaries (the Transaction).

The rating action reflects DBRS’s view that the Transaction will have a modestly positive impact on APUC’s business risk assessment (BRA). The impact on the financial risk assessment (FRA) is uncertain since the financing plan has not been finalized.

Issue Comments

FTS: Rating Agencies Deprecate Acquisition

Fortis Inc. has announced:

FORTIS INC. TO ACQUIRE ITC HOLDINGS CORP. FOR US$11.3 BILLION

Fortis to increase its 2016 consolidated mid year rate base to approximately
C$26 billion (US$18 billion) with acquisition of the largest independent transmission utility in the United States

Highlights

  • •The acquisition aligns with Fortis’ financial objectives by providing approximately 5% earnings per common share accretion in the first full year following closing, excluding one-time acquisition-related expenses. Fortis continues to target 6% average annual dividend growth through 2020.
  • •ITC owns and operates high-voltage transmission facilities in Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma, serving a combined peak load exceeding 26,000 megawatts along approximately 15,600 miles of transmission line.
  • •Fortis will become one of the top 15 North American public utilities ranked by enterprise value.
  • •ITC’s FERC regulated operations, with substantial rate base growth and robust investment opportunities, add a new growth platform.
  • •Following the acquisition, ITC will continue as a stand-alone transmission company, retaining its focus on growth and operational excellence while benefiting from a broader platform that will support its mission to modernize electrical infrastructure in the U.S.
  • •ITC’s average rate base and CWIP is expected to grow at a compounded average annual rate of approximately 7.5% through 2018.
  • •Fortis intends on retaining all of ITC’s employees and maintaining the corporate headquarters in Novi, Michigan.
  • •The per share consideration of cash and Fortis stock payable to ITC shareholders of US$44.90 represents a 33% premium to the unaffected closing share price on November 27, 2015 and a 37% premium to the 30-day average unaffected share price prior to November 27, 2015. Pro forma, upon closing of the transaction, ITC shareholders will own approximately 27% of the combined company and will receive a meaningful increase in their dividend per share.
  • •In connection with the acquisition, Fortis will apply to list its common shares on the NYSE

Shareholders were not impressed:

Fortis, Canada’s largest utility owner, will pay the equivalent of $44.90 for each ITC share, according to a statement Tuesday. That’s a 14 percent premium to Monday’s close, and a 33 percent premium to the close on Nov. 27, before Bloomberg reported that ITC was exploring a sale. The offer, which totals $11.3 billion including assumed debt, will comprise $22.57 in cash and 0.752 Fortis shares apiece.

Fortis fell 10 percent, the biggest one-day decline on record, to close at C$37.14 in Toronto. ITC fell 1.9 percent to $38.65. The premium, or difference between ITC’s price and the per-share deal value, narrowed to 10 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Fortis, based in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, bought Arizona utility owner UNS Energy Corp. for $2.5 billion in cash in 2014 and New York utility owner CH Energy Group Inc. for about $968.5 million in 2013. With ITC, Fortis expects to capitalize on construction of new high-voltage lines as the administration of President Barack Obama encourages development of wind farms and other sources of renewable energy.

Ha! Just another batch of parasites hoping to scoop up some the ‘green energy’ lolly that’s being tossed around with abandon.

Gillian Tan of Bloomberg points out two problems with the deal:

The deal values ITC at $44.90 a share, easily above the consensus analyst price target on the stock, and also represents a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 20. That’s in line with the lofty valuations ascribed to recent deals, and justifies ITC’s decision to seek out a buyer at a time when its larger rivals are starved of growth and debt is cheap. But borrowing isn’t going to be cheap forever, and the fact that Fortis shareholders are fleeing suggests that they aren’t overly enthused about the company lifting its debt burden to more than $15 billion from some $9.1 billion, even though it plans to maintain an investment-grade credit rating.

There’s another wrinkle: As part of the deal financing, Fortis needs to find an infrastructure fund (or funds) to write a check of between $1 billion and $1.4 billion in return for a stake in ITC of between 15 percent and 19.9 percent. While underbidders could step up (Borealis Infrastructure Management is said to be one, according to Bloomberg News), it’s unclear why Fortis didn’t pre-select a partner. If, for whatever reason it is unable to find one, Fortis said it could issue equity (which will dilute existing shareholders) or sell assets (at which time it’ll be a forced seller), both seemingly sub-optimal alternatives.

So S&P assigned the company status of ‘Outlook Negative’:

  • •On Feb. 9, 2016, Fortis Inc. announced the US$11.3 billion proposed
    acquisition of ITC Holdings Corp. (ITC), a U.S.-based electricity transmission operator.

  • •We are revising our outlook on St. John’s, Nfld.-based holding company Fortis Inc. and its subsidiaries FortisAlberta Inc., Maritime Electric Co. Ltd., and Caribbean Utilities Co. Ltd. to negative from stable.
  • •We are also affirming our long-term corporate credit ratings on Fortis and its subsidiaries.
  • •In addition, we are downgrading Fortis’ senior unsecured debentures to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-‘.
  • •We are revising our competitive position score to strong from excellent.
  • •The negative outlook reflects the execution risks associated with the transaction including selling up to 19.9% of ITC to one or more infrastructure-focused minority investors.
  • •The negative outlook also reflects the limited cushion in the credit metrics for any post-merger integration or operational issues.


The negative outlook reflects the execution and integration risk associated with the ITC acquisition including the sale of up to 19.9% of ITC to one or more infrastructure-focused minority investors. In addition, the outlook reflects that credit metrics have a limited cushion in the two-year outlook period. With the acquisition of ITC, we expect the company will reach 11% AFFO to debt in 2019. However, until then metrics will be about 10%, which leaves little cushion for any operational or post-merger integration errors.

We could take a negative rating action on Fortis by applying a negative comparable rating modifier if the company’s AFFO-to-debt were to fall below 10%, at the low end of the significant financial risk profile during our two-year outlook period. This could happen as a result of cost overruns from the post-merger integration efforts with ITC, material adverse regulatory decisions, or if Fortis encounters operational difficulties.

We could revise the outlook to stable if AFFO-to-debt remains consistently above 10% once the transaction has closed and if the acquisition uncertainties have been resolved.

… and DBRS slapped it with ‘Review-Negative’:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today placed the A (low) Issuer Rating, the A (low) Unsecured Debentures rating and the Pfd-2 (low) Preferred Shares rating of Fortis Inc. (Fortis or the Company) Under Review with Negative Implications. This action follows the announcement that the Company has agreed to acquire ITC Holdings Corp. (ITC) for a total consideration of approximately US$11.3 billion, including the assumption of US$4.4 billion of debt on closing (the Acquisition). The rating action reflects DBRS’s view that the Acquisition will have a modestly positive impact on the Company’s business risk profile but a negative impact on its financial risk profile. The Acquisition is expected to close in late 2016 and is subject to both Fortis and ITC shareholder approvals, as well as various regulatory and federal approvals.

Fortis intends to fund the Acquisition by issuing approximately (1) US$3.5 billion to US$3.9 billion of equity, largely satisfied through the share consideration to be paid to ITC shareholders, (2) US$2.0 billion of debt, and by (3) selling 15.0% to 19.9% of ITC to minority investors for approximately US$1.0 billion to US$1.4 billion. DBRS considers the current financing plan to be negative to the Company’s non-consolidated financial risk profile. Based on DBRS’s pro forma 2015 calculations, Fortis had a non-consolidated debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 21.9% and a non-consolidated cash flow-to-debt ratio of 21.4%. Based on the Company’s proposed financing plan and DBRS’s estimate of future dividends from the Acquisition assets to Fortis, DBRS expects a significantly negative impact on the Company’s non-consolidated metrics. As a result, DBRS believes that placing Fortis’s ratings Under Review with Negative Implications is the appropriate rating action at this time.

DBRS will continue to review the final financing plan for the Acquisition and will resolve the Under Review rating action once the transaction closes. The Company’s ratings could be downgraded by one notch if the non-consolidated debt-to-capital ratio following the Acquisition is materially over the 20% threshold and the non-consolidated cash flow-to-debt ratio is significantly below 20%.

Affected issues are: FTS.PR.E, FTS.PR.F, FTS.PR.G, FTS.PR.H, FTS.PR.I, FTS.PR.J, FTS.PR.K and FTS.PR.M. All are tracked by HIMIPref™.

Issue Comments

BRF.PR.E: 41% Conversion to BEP.PR.E

Brookfield Renewable Energy Partners L.P. has announced:

that as of 5:00 p.m. (Toronto Time) on February 8, 2016, a total of 2,885,496 Class A Preference Shares, Series 5 of Brookfield Renewable Power Preferred Equity Inc. (TSX:BRF.PR.E) (the “Series 5 Preferred Shares”) were validly tendered to its offer to exchange each issued and outstanding Series 5 Preferred Share for one newly issued Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Unit, Series 5 of Brookfield Renewable (the “Exchange Offer”). The Series 5 Preferred Shares tendered to the Exchange Offer represent approximately 41.22% of the issued and outstanding Series 5 Preferred Shares.

As all conditions of the Exchange Offer have been satisfied, Brookfield Renewable intends to take up and pay for the Series 5 Preferred Shares tendered to the Exchange Offer by issuing a book entry only certificate representing 2,885,496 Class A Preferred Limited Partnership Units, Series 5 of Brookfield Renewable (the “Series 5 Preferred Units”) in registered form to CDS Clearing and Depository Services Inc. The Series 5 Preferred Units are expected to be issued and commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “BEP.PR.E” on or about February 11, 2016. Series 5 Preferred Shares not tendered to the Exchange Offer will continue to trade on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol “BRF.PR.E”.

BRF.PR.E is a Straight Perpetual, 5.00%, which commenced trading 2013-1-29 after being announced 2013-1-21. It is tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

BEP.PR.E is a Straight Perpetual, 5.59%, but there is a tax wrinkle on the distributions:

Management anticipates the 5 year average per unit Canadian dividend, ordinary income and return of capital will be 50%, 25%, and 25%, respectively, for the period between 2015 and 2020; however, no assurance can be provided this will occur.

The exchange offer was initially announced in November, 2015, extended in December with the prospectus filed shortly thereafter and extended again in January with the minimum tender condition waived.

BEP.PR.E will be tracked by HIMIPref™ but relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Issue Comments

BPO: S&P Upgrades to P-3(high)

Standard & Poor’s has announced:

  • •Brookfield Office Properties Inc. (BPO) and Brookfield Canada Office Properties (BPOC) are 100% and 83% owned subsidiaries of Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) respectively.
  • •On Feb. 3, 2015, Standard & Poor’s assigned its ‘BBB’ corporate credit rating to Brookfield Property Partners.
  • •We are raising our corporate credit ratings on BPO and BPOC to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB-‘ based on our assessment of its “core” status within BPY.
  • •The stable outlook reflects our expectation that BPO and BPOC will remain core subsidiaries within BPY’s sizeable office portfolio.


We could lower the ratings if we lowered the ratings on BPY or if the status within the group changed.

Similarly, in the event of an upgrade of BPY, we would raise the ratings on these core subsidiaries.

Affected issues are BPO.PR.A, BPO.PR.H, BPO.PR.J, BPO.PR.K, BPO.PR.N, BPO.PR.P, BPO.PR.R, BPO.PR.T, BPO.PR.W, BPO.PR.X and BPO.PR.Y.

Issue Comments

RON.PR.A: Lowe's Offers $20 As Part Of Takeover

Lowe’s Companies, Inc. and RONA Inc. have announced:

that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Lowe’s is expected to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of RONA for C$24 per share in cash, and all of the issued and outstanding preferred shares of RONA for C$20 per share in cash. The total transaction value is C$3.2 billion (US$2.3 billion) (the “Transaction”). The offer represents a premium of 104 percent to RONA’s closing common share price on February 2, 2016 and a 38 percent premium to RONA’s 52-week high of C$17.36. Together, Lowe’s Canada and RONA stores will create Canada’s leading home improvement retailer with 2015 pro forma revenues from Canadian operations of approximately C$5.6 billion. Excluding transaction and integration costs, we anticipate the Transaction will be accretive to Lowe’s earnings in the first year following the close of the acquisition.

The Transaction has been unanimously approved by the Boards of Directors of Lowe’s and RONA and is supported by the management teams of both companies. The Transaction is expected to proceed by way of a plan of arrangement by which Lowe’s would acquire all of the outstanding shares of RONA, subject to RONA common shareholder approval and satisfaction of customary conditions, including the receipt of all necessary regulatory approvals. The RONA Board has received an opinion from Scotia Capital Inc. that the consideration to be received by RONA’s common and preferred shareholders pursuant to the Transaction is fair, from a financial point of view.

The RONA Board will recommend that RONA shareholders vote in favor of the plan of arrangement at a special meeting of shareholders expected to be held before the end of the first quarter of 2016. Further information regarding the Transaction will be included in RONA’s information circular to be mailed to RONA shareholders in advance of the special meeting. The arrangement agreement provides that RONA is subject to customary non-solicitation provisions.

$20 is quite the premium over yesterday’s closing quote of 12.41-05!

The consensus is that the deal will succeed – f’rinstance, Frederic Tomesco of Bloomberg:

The fact both boards agreed to the C$3.2 billion ($2.3 billion) offer, along with Lowe’s commitment to preserve head-office jobs and maintain supply agreements, will likely seal the deal. Political conditions in Canada’s second-most populous province also favor the acquisition after helping to scupper a hostile offer in 2012.

Rona’s biggest shareholder, the provincial pension fund manager Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec, said Wednesday it would tender its shares to the offer. Quebec’s new economy minister indicated the government probably wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal.

“If three of the groups that were against Lowe’s last time — the board, the government and the Caisse — are saying it’s a good idea, it would be hard to see it not get the green light,” Karl Moore, a management professor at McGill University’s Desautels Faculty of Management in Montreal, said in a telephone interview. “There’ll be some squawking for sure, but that’s predictable. The opposition has to be against this deal in principle.”

Matthew Townsend and Scott Deveau of Bloomberg point out that the plunging loonie helped a lot:

The Canadian dollar’s loss is Lowe’s gain.

After being rebuffed in its attempt to buy Quebec-based retailer Rona Inc. in 2012, Lowe’s Cos. reached agreement on Wednesday to buy it for C$3.2 billion ($2.3 billion). Two big changes in the past four years made the transaction possible: The Parti Quebecois, which opposed the original deal, is out of power, and the loonie fell to its lowest level against the dollar in more than a decade.

Lowe’s withdrew the $1.8 billion unsolicited bid for Rona in 2012 after the board and some Quebec politicians opposed the offer, concerned about a loss of jobs and local control in the French-speaking province. The withdrawal came just 12 days after the separatist Parti Quebecois won elections.

Since then, the Liberals have taken power in Quebec, and the loonie has dropped to 72 cents versus the U.S. dollar, compared with parity when Lowe’s pulled its bid, making it cheaper for Lowe’s to offer a richer premium. So while the C$24 a share bid in Canadian dollar terms is about 65 percent higher than the C$14.50 a share bid that was rejected, in U.S. dollar terms the offer is just 16 percent higher.

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… and Bloomberg’s Brooke Sutherland suggests it’s all about footprint:

Focusing on Canada may be a distraction, but it’s a distraction that could pay off for Lowe’s. While the home-improvement company has benefited from a rebounding real estate market, the maturing U.S. retail landscape and the rise of online shopping puts a cap on the growth opportunities for big-box vendors. Many are shuttering stores, or at least slowing down expansion.

Lowe’s, for example, had 1,793 U.S. locations as of January 2015 — a gain of about 76 from a year earlier, much of which could be explained by the acquisition of Orchard Supply Hardware. The way to keep growing its store base is to make more acquisitions and push harder into adjacent markets such as Canada, where Home Depot currently has almost five times as many locations as Lowe’s. With Canada’s home improvement industry valued at C$45 billion, Lowe’s can’t really afford to sit on the sidelines.

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John Heinzl was kind enough to quote me when discussing the preferred share part of the deal:

Rona Inc.’s battered preferred-share investors may not be getting as fat a premium as common shareholders in the $3.2-billion takeover by Lowe’s Cos. Inc., but they should be thrilled with what they’re being offered, money managers say.

As part of the deal, the U.S. home-improvements chain is offering $20 for each Class A rate-reset preferred share of Quebec-based Rona. The offer, which is based on a fairness opinion from Scotia Capital, represents a 59-per-cent premium to the closing price of Rona’s preferred shares before the deal was announced.

Some Rona preferred shareholders said it’s possible Lowe’s might make a higher offer for the preferreds. “Perhaps they could be persuaded to offer more money. Perhaps. I’m not banking on it but not discounting it either,” said Benj Gallander, co-editor of Contra the Heard Investment Letter. “These are early days.”

Don’t hold your breath, said preferred-share fund manager James Hymas, president of Hymas Investment Management. Rona’s preferred shareholders don’t have the leverage to squeeze more money out of Lowe’s, he said.

“They can always try, but I don’t know how far they’ll get,” said Mr. Hymas, who does not own Rona’s preferred shares.

After all the suffering Rona’s preferred investors have endured, they should be happy that Lowe’s is willing to take them out at $20, Mr. Hymas said.

“You don’t want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg,” he said. “They’re not going to sweeten that deal. There is no reason to.”

I base this view on the fact that during the conference call the following statements were made:

what’s important to understand that a positive vote from the pref holders is not a condition precedent to the closing of the transaction.

If you don’t have a majority acceptance from the prefs, does RONA continue to report its financial results? … Yes. So the entity would need to continue to report as a public listed entity. Yes.

So a negative vote from RONA preferred shareholders will mean just that the shares will continue to be outstanding. Since RON.PR.A is a FixedReset, 5.25%+265, that commenced trading 2011-2-22 after being announced 2011-2-1, it has a relatively low reset. Absurdly low for junk, albeit more reasonable for investment grade. Investment-grade issues with comparable resets are:

  • MFC.PR.J, +261, bid at 17.89
  • RY.PR.M, +262, bid at 18.45
  • TD.PF.D, +279, bid at 19.00
  • SLF.PR.I, +273, bid at 17.45
  • BAM.PF.B, +263, bid at 16.46
  • BMO.PR.Y, +271, bid at 19.35

So it’s a decent premium over fair value even given an upgrade in credit quality. I’ll suggest that Lowe’s takes the view that they’re willing to give that premium to the preferred shareholders if they’re co-operative, or give it to the lawyers, bookkeepers, auditors and accountants if that’s what the preferred shareholders decide they want. Since the takeover deal is not conditional on preferred shareholder approval they’ve got no reason to pay an extortionate premium for the prefs.

And yes, the credit quality will almost certainly go up if the deal is approved. DBRS confirmed Lowe’s at A(low):

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today confirmed the Issuer Rating and Senior Unsecured Debt rating of Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (Lowe’s or the Company) at A (low) as well as its Short-Term Rating at R-1 (low), all with Stable trends. This action follows the Company’s announcement that it has entered into a definitive agreement under which Lowe’s is expected to acquire all issued and outstanding common shares of RONA inc. (RONA) for CAD 24 per share in cash and all issued and outstanding preferred shares of RONA for CAD 20 per share in cash. The total transaction value including the assumption of RONA’s debt is CAD 3.2 billion ($2.3 billion; the Transaction or Acquisition).

Despite the risks associated with the effective integration of RONA, DBRS believes that the relatively modest magnitude of the Transaction and the temporary increase in financial leverage keep Lowe’s credit risk profile in a range acceptable for the current rating category. Should Lowe’s be challenged to maintain credit metrics in a range acceptable for the current A (low) rating because of weaker-than-expected consolidated operating performance or more aggressive-than-expected financial management (i.e., slower deleveraging), the current ratings could be pressured.

…. while putting RONA on Review-Positive:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today placed the ratings of RONA inc. (RONA or the Company) Under Review with Positive Implications following the Company’s announcement that it has entered into a definitive agreement under which RONA will be acquired by Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (Lowe’s; please see separate DBRS press release) for a total transaction value of $3.2 billion (the Transaction). The total transaction value comprises Lowe’s offer to acquire RONA’s issued and outstanding common shares for $24 per share in cash as well as its issued and outstanding preferred shares for $20 per share, plus RONA’s outstanding debt.

Rona’s Under Review – Positive Implications status reflects Lowe’s current ratings (A (low) and R-1 (low) as rated by DBRS), the intention to purchase RONA’s outstanding preferred shares and the assumption of RONA’s outstanding senior unsecured debt. As of September 27, 2015, RONA had approximately $313 million of senior unsecured debt outstanding, consisting of $116 million of senior unsecured debentures and $197 million drawn on its revolving credit facility (maximum limit of $700 million). DBRS notes that the Company’s senior unsecured debentures will mature in October 2016.

S&P has also taken a positive view regarding RONA’s ratings:

  • •Home improvement retailers Lowe’s Cos. Inc. and RONA Inc. announced today that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Lowe’s is expected to acquire RONA for about C$3.2 billion
  • •As a result, we are placing our ratings on RONA Inc., including our ‘BB+ long-term corporate credit rating on the company, on CreditWatch with positive implications.
  • •We intend to resolve the CreditWatch placement on the acquisition’s closing, which we expect by the third quarter of 2016. At that time, we would likely equalize our long-term corporate credit rating on RONA with that on Lowe’s.


The CreditWatch placement follows Lowe’s Cos. Inc.’s and RONA Inc.’s announcement that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Lowe’s is expected to acquire RONA for about C$3.2 billion. As part of the transaction, we expect Lowe’s to purchase all of the issued and outstanding preferred shares of RONA for C$20 per share in cash and assume its C$116.6 million of unsecured notes that mature in 2016.

“The positive CreditWatch placement reflects our view of the potential uplift for RONA creditors from the possible acquisition of the company by the higher-rated Lowe’s,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Alessio Di Francesco.

So, assuming the common shareholders vote in favour of the deal, holders of RON.PR.A will wind up in one of two positions:

  • Owning a perfectly normal investment-grade preferred share trading somewhere around $17-$19, or
  • Getting $20 cash.

I’d rather take the cash and deploy it into something else! However, a formal recommendation will have to await receipt of the management information circular.

At today’s closing bid of 19.95, RON.PR.A yields 4.22% to perpetuity.

Update, 2016-3-3: RONA has filed the Management Proxy Circular with respect to the two offers.

Issue Comments

REI.PR.A To Be Redeemed

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust has announced:

that it will exercise its right to redeem all of its 5 million outstanding Cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Trust Units, Series A (the “Series A Units”) on March 31, 2016 at the cash redemption price of $25.00 per Series A Unit, for total redemption proceeds of $125 million.

The regular quarterly distribution will be paid in the usual manner on March 31, 2016 to unitholders of record on March 31, 2016.

From and after March 31, 2016, the Series A Units will cease to be entitled to distributions and the only remaining rights of holders of such units will be to receive payment of the cash redemption price.

Beneficial holders who are not directly the registered holder of Series A Units should contact the financial institution, broker or other intermediary through which they hold these units to confirm how they will receive their redemption proceeds. Instructions with respect to receipt of the redemption amount will be set out in the redemption notice to be mailed to the registered holder of the Series A Units shortly. Inquiries should be directed to our Registrar and Transfer Agent, CST Trust Company, at 1-800-387-0825 (or in Toronto 416-682-3860).

REI.PR.A is a FixedReset, 5.25%+262, which commenced trading 2011-1-26 after being announced 2011-1-17.

This redemption is really, really weird. A spread over Canadas of +262bp is not really considered all that much nowadays, not for a junk-rated company when investment-grade issuers are paying close to +500 for new money. I will also point out the following from their 15Q3 Report:

As at September 30, 2015, the weighted average contractual interest rate of RioCan’s debt portfolio is 3.87% (4.12% as at December 31, 2014), a decrease of 27 basis points from the weighted average contractual rate of 4.14% as at September 30, 2014.

So extending this issue would have continued to decrease their average funding cost and at the same time would be permanent capital. Against that, the estimated reset rate of 3.20% is probably a little more than they’re paying at the moment, there is – by definition – recourse to the company, and the rate will be reset in five years just like a regular mortgage. Referring to the 15Q3 Report again for the word “recourse”, we find:

As at September 30, 2015, the Trust’s mortgages payable and drawn lines of credit, was $4.7 billion ($4.6 billion as at December 31, 2014). The vast majority of the Trust’s Canadian mortgage indebtedness provides recourse to the assets of the Trust, as opposed to only having recourse to the specific property charged. RioCan follows this policy as it generally results in lower interest costs than would otherwise be obtained. In the United States, mortgage debt is generally non-recourse financing, with no U.S. secured debt having recourse to the assets of the Canadian operations of the Trust.

We also look back to their 11Q1 Report to see what they had to say about their issue of preferred units:

RioCan was the first Canadian real estate investment trust to issue preferred units, indicative of the Trust moving closer to its objective of becoming “best in class” from a capital markets perspective. The ability to issue preferred units allows RioCan greater flexibility in accessing capital markets and developing a desired capital structure.

RioCan is relatively unscathed by the Sears withdrawal:

Still, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust, which was Target’s largest landlord, has so far been unscathed by Sears’s latest move to exit more stores. While Sears is leaving a home store in a RioCan-owned mall in British Columbia, the retailer has a deal to sublet the space to Leon’s Furniture Ltd., said Edward Sonshine, CEO of RioCan, which has five other Sears home stores and two of its full-line stores.

Even so, RioCan is already looking for an alternative tenant for one of its other Sears home stores because its lease expires in about a year and “we assume they won’t be renewing,” he said.

However, they recently sold their US portfolio:

RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust is ending its six-year foray into the U.S. with a deal to sell its 49 shopping centers in the country to Blackstone Group LP for $1.9 billion.

The sale to the Blackstone Real Estate Partners VIII fund will provide capital for RioCan’s recently announced acquisition of 23 properties from Kimco Realty Corp. and to cut debt, Canada’s largest retail landlord said in a statement Friday. The U.S. shopping centers are located in the Northeast and Texas.

RioCan entered the U.S. market following the financial crisis, purchasing grocery-anchored retail sites at a discount. In July, when the company announced its strategic review of the properties, Sonshine said a weakening Canadian dollar made it costly to expand in the U.S. and RioCan was looking to get more value from the assets.

The total price RioCan paid for the 49 retail sites was C$1.7 billion. The sale at C$2.7 billion, 59 percent more, will provide an internal rate of return of about 16 percent, according to the statement. The Canadian dollar has dropped about 25 percent in the past six years to about 71 cents per U.S. dollar, giving RioCan a sizable currency gain on its investment. The sale is expected to be completed on April 30.

So, I can’t really figure this one out. The best I can come up with is the idea that they don’t really see many new investment opportunities in Canada at the moment and assume that those that do come up can be financed with good old Canadian non-recourse, cut-rate mortgages.

But the price action on the day for the issue was pretty interesting:

REIPRA_160202
Click for Big

You don’t see intra-day changes of 50%+ very often!

REI.PR.C was also up on the day, +12.8% to close at 21.15, presumably on speculation that the same thing will happen to it when its Exchange Date comes on 2017-6-30. It resets at +318, so it’s easy to follow the reasoning!

Update, 2016-2-11: Barry Critchley of the Financial Post has written a piece titled Behind RioCan’s decision to redeem its first-of-its-kind rate reset preferreds. In addition to the sale of the US portfolio noted above, there is the fact that the ratings agencies are not giving any equity credit to preferreds issued by REITS and:

2.The refinancing rate of 262 basis points is not that attractive. “Both of those spreads [on the new fixed and floating rate preferreds] are higher than spreads we can borrow at,” she said. Aside from its operating lines [which are priced at “125 basis points over” the U.S. or Canadian prime rate] RioCan can borrow five-year money on an unsecured basis about 50 basis points lower than the 262 basis points it would be required to pay if it extended the maturing preferreds.

Well, sure, but it’s still not all that convincing. The preferreds are not five-year money; they’re permanent money priced at a spread over five-years. So Cynthia Devine, RioCan’s chief financial officer, is saying she’s not willing to pay a 50bp term premium for this money, and:

“We will have a lot of proceeds and we have made it clear that one of the primary uses is to pay down debt. This is easy to execute because it’s coming due in March,” she said.

… which doesn’t sound like a very good reason to me. At the very least, I would have been sorely tempted to have extended the issue and put in a big Normal Course Issuer Bid; perhaps preceded by a tender offer; or even with a distribution of ‘put rights’ (by which I mean rights distributed to common shareholders that would allow X rights and 1 share of REI.PR.A to be sold to the company for Y dollars).

Ms. Devine may have had very good reasons for doing what she did. But she left a lot of money on the table and that’s not what CFOs are supposed to do.

Update, 2016-2-22: Barry Critchley has written a follow-up piece titled Two tales of preferred redemption, Rona and RioCan REIT, in which Cynthia Devine offers up a new rationale for her decision to redeem:

On Friday, Devine said RioCan “did look at that [a tender offer below $25] but there was a chance that not all of them would be taken out of circulation. Some [investors] may not tender so you have a series outstanding.”

Well, I don’t want to get too vituperative here, because this is only a quote in the press … there may be considerably more nuance and rationale behind this statement than was published.

But the excuse doesn’t cut any ice. The shares closed at $16.00 the day before the announcement, and there are 5-million of them outstanding; so Ms. Devine’s decision awarded windfall gains of $45-million to the holders of the preferred shares.

So the first question is: how did the cost-benefit work? A tender at $20 would – I feel quite certain – have captured all but a handful of the shares, given the preferred shareholders a windfall gain of $20-million and given the ordinary unitholders a gain of $25-million. So, maybe the series would have remained outstanding. What’s the cost of that, compared to $25-million in hand?

And the second question is: if it was deemed absolutely necessary to eliminate the series completely (which requires rather a leap of the imagination), why wasn’t another method tried? A Plan of Arrangement would serve the purpose nicely – just get the preferred shareholders to vote on whether to eliminate the series at $20 / share. Dissenters might get right of dissent, but it is very difficult to see any judge awarding them more than $20, when the prior market value was $16.

The fact of the matter is that any rational holder of the preferred shares would be very happy to have gotten $20 (which could be redeployed into comparables) and this would have given the ordinary unitholders a quick gain of $25-million. This is not an insignificant number: RioCan’s profit for all of 2015 was $142-million. Ms. Devine had the opportunity to realize one-sixth of that, while leaving the preferred shareholders very happy … and chose not to do so.

Issue Comments

BNS.PR.F Listed: Minimal Trading

BNS.PR.F is a FloatingReset, Bills+134bp, resulting from the 32% conversion from BNS.PR.Z, which has reset at 2.063%. The issue will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FloatingReset subindex. The two issues constitute a Strong Pair.

The issue traded 200 shares today in a range of 18.20-51 and closed at 17.72-20, 1×1.

Vital statistics are:

BNS.PR.F FloatingReset YTW SCENARIO
Maturity Type : Hard Maturity
Maturity Date : 2022-01-31
Maturity Price : 25.00
Evaluated at bid price : 17.72
Bid-YTW : 8.03 %