Category: Issue Comments

Emera Incorporated has announced:

that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of the currently outstanding Cumulative 5-Year Rate Reset First Preferred Shares, Series A of the Company (the “Series A Shares”) on August 15, 2015. There are currently 6,000,000 Series A Shares outstanding.

Subject to certain conditions set out in the prospectus supplement of the Company dated, May 26, 2010, to the short form base shelf prospectus, dated May 19, 2010 (collectively, the “Prospectus”) relating to the issuance of the Series A Shares, the holders of the Series A Shares have the right, at their option, to convert all or any of their Series A Shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Floating Rate First Preferred Shares, Series B of the Company (the “Series B Shares”) on August 15, 2015 (the “Conversion Date”).

On such date, holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series A Shares into Series B Shares will continue to hold their Series A Shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the following:

1. if the Company determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series B Shares outstanding on the Conversion Date, then holders of Series A Shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series B Shares, and

2. alternatively, if the Company determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series A Shares on the Conversion Date, then all remaining Series A Shares will automatically be converted into Series B Shares on a one-for-one basis on the Conversion Date.

In either case, Emera will give written notice to that effect to holders of Series A Shares no later than August 10, 2015.

The dividend rate applicable for the Series A Shares for the five-year period commencing on August 15, 2015 and ending on (and inclusive of) August 14, 2020, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series B Shares for the 3-month period commencing on August 15, 2015 and ending on (and inclusive of) November 14, 2015, will be determined on July 16, 2015 and notice of such dividend rates shall be provided to the holders of the Series A Shares on that day.

Beneficial owners of Series A Shares who wish to exercise their conversion right, should communicate with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right during the conversion period, which runs from July 16, 2015 until 5:00 p.m. (EDT) on July 31, 2015.

Inquiries should be directed to Emera Investor Services, at 1-800-358-1995 or 902-428-6060, or by email to investors@emera.com.

EMA.PR.A is a FixedReset, 4.40%+184, announced 2010-5-25, which commenced trading 2010-6-2. If we assume that the July 3 GOC-5 yield of 0.80% remains the level at the time of reset, then the issue will reset at 2.64%, a 40% decline from the initial rate.

So, we shall learn the new rate on July 16, and can elect conversion until July 31 (or a day or two earlier when providing instructions via an intermediary). I’ll keep you posted!

As earlier reported on PrefBlog, there was a 50% conversion from the FixedReset, SLF.PR.G, to the FloatingReset SLF.PR.J

SLF.PR.G will pay 2.275% (on its par value of $25), or $0.142188 per share per quarter, until its next exchange date of 2020-6-30. SLF.PR.J will pay the three month Canada treasury bill rate, plus 141bp, reset quarterly, throughout its existence.

As both of these issues are issued by an insurance holding company and neither has an NVCC clause, I have added a DeemedMaturity entry to the call schedule; I am therefore assuming that these will be called at par on or before 2025-6-30. See the heading “DeemedRetractibles” on the Format of PrefLetter page for more information. Please note carefully that this is the result of my analysis and is neither a binding commitment of the issuer nor guaranteed in any way.

Vital statistics are:

At the indicated bid prices, the break-even three-month bill rate (the average bill rate at which the total return of the two elements of the Strong Pair will be equal until the next Exchange Date) is 1.08%, so far above the average for all investment grade FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pairs (irrespective of Exchange Date) of 0.36% that this pair constitutes an outlier. If the average rate exceeds 1.08% then SLF.PR.J will outperform SLF.PR.G over the period (measured from today’s bid prices).

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TransCanada Corporation has announced:

that 5,466,595 of its 14,000,000 fixed rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 3 (Series 3 Shares) were tendered for conversion into floating-rate Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares, Series 4 (Series 4 Shares). As a result of the conversion TransCanada has 8,533,405 Series 3 Shares and 5,466,595 Series 4 Shares issued and outstanding. The Series 3 Shares will continue to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) under the symbol TRP.PR.B. The Series 4 Shares will begin trading on the TSX today under the symbol TRP.PR.H.

The Series 3 Shares will continue to pay on a quarterly basis, for the five-year period beginning on June 30, 2015, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TransCanada, a fixed dividend based on an annual fixed dividend rate of 2.152 per cent.

The Series 4 Shares will pay a floating quarterly dividend for the five-year period beginning on June 30, 2015, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of TransCanada. The floating quarterly dividend rate for the Series 4 Shares for the first quarterly floating rate period (being the period from June 30, 2015 to but excluding September 30, 2015) is 1.945 per cent and will be reset every quarter.

For more information on the terms of, and risks associated with an investment in, the Series 3 Shares and the Series 4 Shares, please see the Corporation’s prospectus supplement dated March 4, 2010 which can be found under the Corporation’s profile on SEDAR at www.sedar.com or on the Corporation’s website.

No shares traded today and the closing quote, as reported by the Toronto Stock Exchange, was 14.35-25.00.

Vital statistics are:

At the indicated bid prices, the break-even three-month bill rate (the average bill rate at which the total return of the two elements of the Strong Pair will be equal until the next Exchange Date) is 0.26%, slightly below the average for all investment grade FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pairs (irrespective of Exchange Date) of 0.36%. Thus, if the average rate exceeds 0.26% then TRP.PR.H will outperform TRP.PR.B over the period (measured from today’s bid prices), which seems like a pretty good bet.

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The Bank of Nova Scotia has announced:

BNS Split Corp. II (the “Company”) announced today that its Board of Directors has approved a proposal to reorganize the Company. The reorganization will permit holders of Capital Shares to extend their investment in the Company beyond the scheduled redemption date of September 22, 2015 for an additional five years. The Preferred Shares will be redeemed on the same terms originally contemplated in their share provisions. Holders of Capital Shares who do not wish to extend their investment and all holders of Preferred Shares will have their shares redeemed on September 22, 2015.

The reorganization will involve (i) the extension of the originally scheduled redemption date, (ii) a special retraction right to enable holders of Capital Shares to retract their shares as originally contemplated should they not wish to extend their investment and (iii) the issuance of a new class of preferred shares in order to provide continuing leverage for the Capital Shares. The Company may also offer additional Capital Shares at the time of the preferred share offering.

A special meeting of holders of the Capital Shares will be held on August 7, 2015 to consider and vote upon the proposed reorganization. Details of the proposed reorganization will be outlined in an information circular to be prepared and delivered to holders of Capital Shares of record on July 9, 2015 in connection with the special meeting and will be available on www.sedar.com. Implementation of the proposed reorganization will also be subject to applicable regulatory approval including the Toronto Stock Exchange.

BNS Split Corp. II is a mutual fund corporation created to hold a portfolio of common shares of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Capital Shares and Preferred Shares of BNS Split Corp. II are listed for trading on The Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols BSC and BSC.PR.B respectively.

BSC.PR.B was last mentioned on PrefBlog when there was a partial call for redemption last September. BSC.PR.B is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on volume concerns.

Moody’s Investors Service has announced that it [emphasis added]:

has downgraded the senior unsecured ratings for Enbridge Inc. (ENB) to Baa2 from Baa1; for Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. (EEP) to Baa3 from Baa2 and for Enbridge Energy Limited Partnership (EELP) to Baa2 from Baa1. Moody’s affirmed the Baa2 senior unsecured rating on Enbridge Income Fund (EIF) and the Prime-2 commercial paper rating for Enbridge (U.S.) Inc. For all these entities, the rating outlooks are stable. For a complete list of Moody’s ratings actions see the end of this press release.
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The downgrade of ENB reflects the reduction in financial flexibility following the company’s change in its distribution policy, the increased level of structural subordination at the ENB level, principally due to the transfer of Enbridge Pipelines Inc.(EPI) and Enbridge Pipelines Athabasca (EPA) to EIF and the ongoing capital structure complexity within the group. Dividends per share at ENB will increase by 33% in 2015, because the company changed its dividend policy to 40-50% of cash flow from operations from 60-70% of earnings. We see ENB implementing more shareholder-friendly policies at a time when the group continues to move forward with its large capital program, with increasing execution risk. Structural subordination is also increasing because EPI and EPA, the assets being transferred to EIF, will no longer be held directly by ENB. Cash flow from these assets must service obligations at EIF, including EIF’s debt, before servicing ENB creditors. This more than offsets the transfer of interests of EEP to ENB from EPI.
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Rating Outlook

The outlook for the group is stable.

ENB: What could change the rating up

Given the large capital program and high leverage, an upgrade is unlikely until the completion of the capital program in 2017. Beyond that, we could raise the ratings if proportionately consolidated Debt/EBITDA is forecast in the 4-5x range on a sustained basis.

ENB: What could change the rating down

A failure to execute the capital program on time and budget or a negative deviation from our proportionately consolidated financial forecast could result in a downgrade. A deterioration in the business risk profile of the company or proportionately consolidated Debt/EBITDA sustained above 5.5x following the completion of the large capital program could also lead to a downgrade.
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..Issuer: Enbridge Inc.

…. Issuer Rating, Downgraded to Baa2 from Baa1

….Preferred Stock Shelf, Downgraded to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3

….Senior Unsecured Shelf and MTN program, Downgraded to (P)Baa2 from (P)Baa1

….Subordinated Shelf, Downgraded to (P)Baa3 from (P)Baa2

….Pref. Stock Preferred Stock, Downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3

….Pref. Stock Preferred Stock, Downgraded to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3

….Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Baa2 from (P)Baa1

….Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debentures, Downgraded to Baa2 from Baa1

And yes, I checked … Ba1 is not investment grade by Moody’s definition.

This follows the downgrade by S&P to P-2(low) (still investment grade!) which was also with respect to the Dropdown.

Affected issues are: ENB.PF.A, ENB.PF.C, ENB.PF.E, ENB.PF.G, ENB.PR.A, ENB.PR.B, ENB.PR.D, ENB.PR.F, ENB.PR.H, ENB.PR.J, ENB.PR.N, ENB.PR.P, ENB.PR.T and ENB.PR.Y.

Hat-tip to Assiduous Reader gsp for bringing this development to my attention!

Brompton Group has announced:

Life & Banc Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus with respect to a treasury offering of class A shares and preferred shares. The class A and preferred shares have been priced at $9.65 per class A share and $10.10 per preferred share. The offering prices were determined so as to be non-dilutive to the net asset value per unit of the Company on June 23, 2015, as adjusted for dividends accrued prior to or upon settlement of the offering.

The Company invests in a portfolio of common shares of the six largest Canadian banks (“Banks”) and the four major publicly traded Canadian life insurance companies (“Lifecos”). Currently, the portfolio consists of common shares of the following Banks and Lifecos:

The Bank of Nova Scotia	Royal Bank of Canada
National Bank of Canada	Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc.
The Toronto-Dominion Bank	Great-West Lifeco Inc.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce	Manulife Financial Corporation
Bank of Montreal	Sun Life Financial Inc.

The investment objectives for the class A shares are to provide holders with regular monthly cash distributions targeted to be $0.10 per class A share and to provide the opportunity for growth in net asset value per class A share.

The investment objectives for the preferred shares are to provide holders with fixed cumulative preferential quarterly cash distributions in the amount of $0.11875 per preferred share ($0.475 per annum), representing a yield on the original issue price of 4.75% per annum, and to return the original issue price to holders of preferred shares on the maturity date of the Company, November 29, 2018.

The syndicate of agents for the offering is being led by RBC Capital Markets, CIBC and Scotiabank, and includes TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial Inc., GMP Securities L.P., Raymond James Ltd., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Desjardins Securities Inc., Dundee Securities Ltd., Haywood Securities Inc., Industrial Alliance Securities Inc. and Mackie Research Capital Corporation.

What a joy it is when you can sell fund units valued at 18.93 as of June 23 for 19.75!

LBS.PR.A was last mentioned on PrefBlog when they raised 25.5-million in a similar offering in April. This issue is tracked by HIMIPref™ but is relegated to the Scraps index on credit concerns.

Update, 2015-6-30: Final prospectus filed:

Life & Banc Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce that it has filed a final short form prospectus with respect to a treasury offering of up to 1,860,000 class A shares and up to 1,860,000 preferred shares for aggregate gross proceeds of up to approximately $36.7 million.

Sun Life Financial Inc. has announced:

that 6,007,314 of its 11,200,000 Class A Non-cumulative Rate Reset Preferred Shares Series 8R (the “Series 8R Shares”) have been elected for conversion on June 30, 2015, on a one-for-one basis, into Class A Non-cumulative Floating Rate Preferred Shares Series 9QR (the “Series 9QR Shares”). Consequently, on June 30, 2015, Sun Life Financial will have 5,192,686 Series 8R Shares and 6,007,314 Series 9QR Shares issued and outstanding. The Series 8R Shares and Series 9QR Shares will be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols SLF.PR.G and SLF.PR.J, respectively.

Subject to regulatory approval, Sun Life Financial may redeem the Series 8R Shares and the Series 9QR Shares in whole or in part on June 30, 2020 and on the 30th of June every five years thereafter.

The conversion rate is much higher than the most recent conversion, FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.I, in which a 30% conversion was seen.

And the conversion rate flies in the face of my recommendation to hold SLF.PR.G, the FixedReset. Oh well, we’ll see how it turns out.

Enbridge Inc. has announced:

• •$30.4 billion transfer of the Canadian Mainline, the Regional Oil Sands System and Canadian renewable energy assets to Enbridge Income Fund
• •Transaction supports higher dividend payout and positions Enbridge to extend its industry leading growth rate beyond 2018
• •Available Cash Flow from Operations growth expected to average approximately 18 percent from 2014 to 2018
• •33 percent dividend per share growth in 2015, as previously announced
• •14 to 16 percent expected annual average dividend per share growth from 2016 to 2018
• •Transformation of Enbridge Income Fund Holdings to a premier Liquids Pipelines investment vehicle in Canada
• •Enbridge to remain as manager and operator of transferred assets

Enbridge Inc. (TSX:ENB) (NYSE:ENB) (Enbridge or the Company) has reached agreement with Enbridge Income Fund (the Fund) to transfer its Canadian Liquids Pipelines Business, held by Enbridge Pipelines Inc. (EPI) and Enbridge Pipelines Athabasca Inc. (EPA), and certain Canadian renewable energy assets to the Fund for consideration payable at closing valued at $30.4 billion (the Transaction). The Transaction is subject to customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions, as well as a vote of the public shareholders of Enbridge Income Fund Holdings Inc. (TSX: ENF) (ENF), which is expected to occur in August 2015.

The Transaction is a key component of Enbridge’s Financial Strategy Optimization introduced in December of last year which included an increase in the Company’s targeted dividend payout. It advances the Company’s sponsored vehicle strategy and supports Enbridge’s previously announced 33 percent dividend increase in 2015 and expected annual average dividend per share (DPS) growth of 14 to 16 percent from 2016 through to 2018. It also positions Enbridge to extend its industry leading DPS growth beyond 2018. The Transaction is expected to provide Enbridge with an alternate source of funding for its enterprise wide growth initiatives and enhance its competitiveness for new organic growth opportunities and asset acquisitions.

The transaction (often referred to as the dropdown), and its resultant rating agency unhappiness with the company, was discussed on PrefBlog in December, 2014. Now it has advanced a step and the first thing that happened was a downgrade from S&P:

• •We are lowering our ratings on Calgary, Alta.-based Enbridge Inc. (EI), Enbridge Pipelines Inc. (EPI), and Toronto-based Enbridge Gas Distribution Inc. (EGD), including our long-term corporate credit rating on each to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-‘.
• •We are also lowering our corporate credit rating on Houston-based Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. (EEP) to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB+’.
• •We are removing the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed Dec. 4, 2014.
• •The downgrade reflects our assessment of weak forecast financial metrics at EI.
• •The announced dropdown transaction of assets to Enbridge Income Fund (EIF) does not change our assessment of business or financial risk profiles at EI, nor does it introduce a sufficient level of subordination to further lower EI debt ratings.
• •We assess EGD and EPI to be “core” and EEP to be “highly strategic” to EI.

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We view Enbridge’s financial risk profile as “aggressive.” The continuing large capital program to expand existing and build new liquids pipelines will continue to pressure financial metrics for the next several years. We forecast adjusted funds from operations (AFFO)-to-debt of 10%-13% under our forecast capital expenditures and financing plans over the next two years. The lower financial risk profile reflects our expectation of lower consolidated funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt ratios that are in the aggressive financial risk profile category using the medial cash flow volatility table. The company has brought large-scale capital projects in service on time and on budget, and we expect this to continue. Financial policy has generally been credit-supportive, although growing capital expenditures from new projects, and the parents support of subsidiary companies with internal equity financing, have shifted to what we believe is a more neutral stance.
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A downgrade could occur if AFFO-to-debt stays below 11%, which could result from weaker financial performance, due to mainline volumes falling below expectations, or a more aggressive funding of the large capital program throughout our outlook period.

Maintaining AFFO-to-debt above 15% could result in an upgrade by revising the financial risk profile to “significant” from aggressive.

DBRS was more restrained, changing the status of the Review to Negative from Developing:

DBRS Limited (DBRS) has today changed the status of the following ratings of Enbridge Inc. (ENB) to Under Review with Negative Implications from Under Review with Developing Implications, where they were placed on December 3, 2014:
— Enbridge Inc., Issuer Rating of A (low)
— Enbridge Inc., Medium-Term Notes & Unsecured Debentures rated A (low)
— Enbridge Inc., Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares rated Pfd-2 (low)
— Enbridge Inc., Commercial Paper rated R-1 (low)

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DBRS expects the combination of the Transaction and the Plan to have a negative impact on ENB’s credit risk profile mainly due to the following factors:

(1) Following completion of the Transaction and the Plan, holders of ENB’s direct external debt would be further away from the cash flow of the assets transferred to EIF (the Transferred Assets). Dividends from the Transferred Assets would be needed to service EIF debt prior to the payment of common dividends to EIFH’s public shareholders and payment of preferred and common share dividends to ENB, the latter of which would be available to meet the obligations to ENB’s external debt and preferred shareholders. Conversely, as part of the Plan, ENB’s direct external debt holders would be closer to EEP’s assets, which would be owned directly by ENB (through EECI) rather than through EPI (and then EECI) following completion of the Plan. For context, however, the Transferred Assets accounted for more than 40% of ENB’s 2014 segment earnings compared with 12% for EEP.
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(2) The initial 33% increase in ENB’s common share dividend and its move to a higher dividend payout ratio range (75% to 85% of adjusted earnings, converting to 40% to 50% of available cash flow from operations), combined with the impacts of the Transaction and the Plan, would result in higher consolidated ENB funding needs. Consequently, ENB would be relying more heavily on dividends from (and external funding at) its directly encumbered subsidiaries (including EIF) to finance the direct-to-ENB portion (including its joint ventures with EEP) of the substantial consolidated growth capital expenditure (capex) program over the 2015 to 2018 period. This factor would be at least partly offset by the offloading of at least part of the direct-to-ENB funding needs to EIF. DBRS’s ENB ratings incorporate expected improvement in ENB’s credit metrics on both fully and modified consolidated bases as longer-dated organic growth projects come on-stream and begin to generate cash flow in the later years of its five-year growth capex program.
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Based on its review to date, DBRS expects to downgrade all of ENB’s ratings by one notch, with Stable trends, upon completion of the Transaction; therefore, DBRS believes that Under Review with Negative Implications is the appropriate rating action at this time.

Moody’s had nothing to say but the Outlook remains Negative.

Affected issues are: ENB.PF.A, ENB.PF.C, ENB.PF.E, ENB.PF.G, ENB.PR.A, ENB.PR.B, ENB.PR.D, ENB.PR.F, ENB.PR.H, ENB.PR.J, ENB.PR.N, ENB.PR.P, ENB.PR.T and ENB.PR.Y.

Husky Energy has announced that it:

has completed its recently announced public offering of 6,000,000 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series 7 (the “Series 7 Shares”) with a syndicate of underwriters led by RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets and Scotia Capital Inc.

The aggregate gross proceeds to Husky from the completed offering are $150 million.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used for general corporate purposes which may include, among other things, the partial repayment of bank debt incurred by the Company to further advance its near-term heavy oil thermal projects.

The Series 7 Shares were offered by way of prospectus supplement to the short form base shelf prospectus of Husky Energy dated February 23, 2015.

Holders of the Series 7 Shares are entitled to receive a cumulative quarterly fixed dividend yielding 4.60 percent annually for the initial period ending June 30, 2020. Thereafter, the dividend rate will be reset every five years at a rate equal to the five-year Government of Canada bond yield plus 3.52 percent.

Holders of Series 7 Shares will have the right, at their option, to convert their shares into Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series 8 (the “Series 8 Shares”), subject to certain conditions, on June 30, 2020 and on June 30 every five years thereafter. Holders of the Series 8 Shares will be entitled to receive cumulative quarterly floating dividends at a rate equal to the 90-day Government of Canada Treasury Bill rate plus 3.52 percent.

The Series 7 Shares are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol HSE.PR.G.

HSE.PR.G is a FixedReset, 4.60%+352, announced June 9. It will be tracked by HIMIPref™ and has been assigned to the FixedReset subindex.

The issue traded 1,051,829 shares today (consolidated exchanges) in a range of 24.50-73 before closing at 24.59-60. Since announcement date the FixedReset subindex is down just a hair over 1%, so the weakness in this issue is not fully explained by market movement. Vital statistics are:

Similarly to the analysis of announcement day, the chart of Implied Volatility for the series of HSE FixedResets indicates that the new issue can be thought of as being a little cheap because the Implied Volatility seems a little high, indicating that there is, perhaps, a little bit more downside protection with the higher-spread issues than with the lower-spread issues.

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Update, 2015-6-18: Rated Pfd-2(low) by DBRS.

It will be recalled that SLF.PR.G will reset to 2.275% effective June 30 and TRP.PR.B will reset at 2.152% effective June 30.

Holders of SLF.PR.G and TRP.PR.B have the option to convert to FloatingResets, which will pay 3-month bills plus 141bp for the SLF issue and 3-month bills plus 128bp for the TRP issue; both rates will be on the par value of $25.00. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is June 15 for both issues; but note first that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert!However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., SLF.PR.G and the FloatingReset, SLF.PR.?, that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

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The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; most of the implied rates until the next interconversion are lower than the current 3-month bill rate! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity, and this is just what we see; four of the six junk pairs now in existence are not plotted on the graph as they have a negative implied T-Bill rate.

If we plug in the current bid price of the SLF.PR.G and TRP.PR.B FixedResets, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for their soon-to-be-issued FloatingReset counterparts given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingResets that will result from conversion are likely to be cheap and trading below the price of their FixedReset counterparts. Therefore, I recommend that holders of SLF.PR.G and TRP.PR.B continue to hold the issues and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time and your forecast for the future path of policy rates. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FloatingResets commence trading and that the relative pricing of the two new pairs will reflect these conditions.

Note as well that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of SLF.PR.G are tendered for conversion, then no conversions will be allowed; but if only 100,000 shares of SLF.PR.G will remain after the rest are all tendered, then conversion will be mandatory. However, this is relatively rare: all 26 Strong Pairs currently extant have some version of this condition and all but two have both series outstanding.