Category: Issue Comments

Issue Comments

RBS.PR.B: Partial Call For Redemption

Scotia Managed Companies has announced:

R Split III Corp. (the “Company”) announced today that it has called 111,228 Preferred Shares for cash redemption on May 29, 2015 (in accordance with the Company’s Articles) representing approximately 18.652% of the outstanding Preferred Shares as a result of the annual retraction of 222,456 Capital Shares by the holders thereof. The Preferred Shares shall be redeemed on a pro rata basis, so that each holder of Preferred Shares of record on May 27, 2015 will have approximately 18.652% of their Preferred Shares redeemed. The redemption price for the Preferred Shares will be $13.60 per share.

In addition, holders of a further 23,400 Capital Shares and 11,700 Preferred Shares have deposited such shares concurrently for retraction on May 29, 2015. As a result, a total of 245,856 Capital Shares and 111,228 Preferred Shares, or approximately 20.217% of both classes of shares currently outstanding, will be redeemed.

Holders of Preferred Shares that are on record for dividends but have been called for redemption will be entitled to receive dividends thereon which have been declared but remain unpaid up to but not including May 29, 2015.

Payment of the amount due to holders of Preferred Shares will be made by the Company on May 29, 2015. From and after May 29, 2015 the holders of Preferred Shares that have been called for redemption will not be entitled to dividends or to exercise any rights in respect of such shares except to receive the amount due on redemption.

R Split III Corp. is a mutual fund corporation created to hold a portfolio of common shares of Royal Bank of Canada. Capital Shares and Preferred Shares of R Split III Corp. are listed for trading on The Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbols RBS and RBS.PR.B respectively.

RBS.PR.B was last mentioned on PrefBlog when there was a partial redemption in May 2014. It is not tracked by HIMIPref™ since, with only about 600,000 shares outstanding with a par value of $13.60, it’s too small – and now it’s getting smaller!

Issue Comments

FTS.PR.H: Convert or Hold?

It will be recalled that FTS.PR.H will reset to 2.50% effective June 1 – a fact that was established with some difficulty!

Holders of FTS.PR.H have the option to convert to FloatingResets, FTS.PR.I, which will pay 3-month bills plus 145bp on its par value of $25.00. The deadline for notifying the company of the intent to convert is May 19; but note first that this is a company deadline and that brokers will generally set their deadlines a day or two in advance, so there’s not much time to lose if you’re planning to convert! Also, Monday 18 is a holiday in most of Canada and your brokerage will probably be closed. However, if you miss the brokerage deadline they’ll probably do it on a ‘best efforts’ basis if you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion.

The most logical way to analyze the question of whether or not to convert is through the theory of Preferred Pairs, for which a calculator is available. Briefly, a Strong Pair is defined as a pair of securities that can be interconverted in the future (e.g., FTS.PR.H and the FloatingReset, FTS.PR.I, that will exist if enough holders convert). Since they will be interconvertible on this future date, it may be assumed that they will be priced identically on this date (if they aren’t then holders will simply convert en masse to the higher-priced issue). And since they will be priced identically on a given date in the future, any current difference in price must be offset by expectations of an equal and opposite value of dividends to be received in the interim. And since the dividend rate on one element of the pair is both fixed and known, the implied average rate of the other, floating rate, instrument can be determined. Finally, we say, we may compare these average rates and take a view regarding the actual future course of that rate relative to the implied rate, which will provide us with guidance on which element of the pair is likely to outperform the other until the next interconversion date, at which time the process will be repeated.

We can show the break-even rates for each FixedReset / FloatingReset Strong Pair graphically by plotting the implied average 3-month bill rate against the next Exchange Date (which is the date to which the average will be calculated).

pairs_FR_150514
Click for Big

The market appears to have a distaste at the moment for floating rate product; the implied rates until the next interconversion are all (except one!) lower than the current 3-month bill rate and one is significantly negative! Whatever might be the result of the next few Bank of Canada overnight rate decisions, I suggest that it is unlikely that the average rate over the next five years will be lower than current – but if you disagree, of course, you may interpret the data any way you like.

Since credit quality of each element of the pair is equal to the other element, it should not make any difference whether the pair examined is investment-grade or junk, although we might expect greater variation of implied rates between junk issues on grounds of lower liquidity. The average in the table above for the junk issues (except FFH.PR.E / FFH.PR.F at -0.85% and BRF.PR.A / BRF.PR.B at -1.05%) is about +0.30%; for the investment grade issues (except TRP.PR.A / TRP.PR.F) it is also about 0.30%. This is pretty good agreement.

If we plug in the current bid price of the FTS.PR.H FixedReset, we may construct the following table showing consistent prices for the soon-to-be-issued FTS.PR.I FloatingReset given a variety of Implied Breakeven yields consistent with issues currently trading:

Estimate of FTS.PR.I FloatingReset Trading Price In Current Conditions
  Assumed FloatingReset
Price if Implied Bill
is equal to
FixedReset Bid Price Spread 0% +0.30% +0.60%
FTS.PR.H 16.33 145bp 15.22 15.54 15.85

Based on current market conditions, I suggest that the FloatingReset that will result from conversion of FTS.PR.H will be cheap and trading a little below the price of FTS.PR.H. Therefore, I recommend that holders of FTS.PR.H continue to hold this issue and not to convert. I will note that, given the apparent cheapness of the FloatingResets, it may be a good trade to swap the FixedReset for the FloatingReset in the market once both elements of each pair are trading and you can – presumably, according to this analysis – do it with a reasonably good take-out in price, rather than doing it through the company on a 1:1 basis. But that, of course, will depend on the prices at that time. There are no guarantees – my recommendation is based on the assumption that current market conditions with respect to the pairs will continue until the FTS.PR.I commences trading and that the relative pricing of FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.I will reflect these conditions.

Note as well that conversion rights are dependent upon at least one million shares of each series being outstanding after giving effect to holders’ instructions; e.g., if only 100,000 shares of FTS.PR.H are tendered for conversion, then no conversions will be allowed; but if only 100,000 shares of FTS.PR.H will remain after the rest are all tendered, then conversion will be mandatory. However, this is relatively rare: all 26 Strong Pairs currently extant have some version of this condition and all but two have both series outstanding.

Issue Comments

DFN.PR.A To Get Bigger

Quadravest has announced:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has filed a preliminary short form prospectus in each of the provinces of Canada with respect to an offering of Preferred Shares and Class A Shares of the Company. The offering will be co-led by National Bank Financial Inc., CIBC, RBC Capital Markets and will also include Scotia Capital Inc., TD Securities Inc., BMO Capital Markets, GMP Securities L.P., Canaccord Genuity Corp., Dundee Securities, Raymond James, Desjardins Securities Inc., Mackie Research Capital Corporation and Manulife Securities Incorporated.

The Preferred Shares will be offered at a price of $10.00 per Preferred Share to yield 5.25% on the issue price and the Class A Shares will be offered at a price of $11.90 per Class A Share to yield 10.08% on the issue price. The closing price on the TSX of each of the Preferred Shares and the Class A Shares on May 12, 2015 was $10.35 and $12.23, respectively.

Since inception of the Company, the aggregate dividends paid on the Preferred Shares have been $5.84 per share and the aggregate dividends paid on the Class A Shares have been $16.80 per share (including five special distributions of $0.25 per share, one special distribution of $0.50 per share and one special stock dividend of $1.75 per share), for a combined total of $22.64 per unit. All distributions to date have been made in tax advantage eligible Canadian dividends or capital gains dividends.

The net proceeds of the offering will be used by the Company to invest in an actively managed portfolio of dividend yielding common shares which includes each of the 15 Canadian companies listed below:

The Bank of Nova Scotia Manulife Financial Corp. Thomson-Reuters Corporation
BCE Inc. National Bank of Canada The Toronto-Dominion Bank
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Royal Bank of Canada TransAlta Corporation
CI Financial Corp. Sun Life Financial Inc. TransCanada Corporation

The Company’s investment objectives are:
Preferred Shares:
i. to provide holders of the Preferred Shares with fixed, cumulative preferential monthly cash dividends in the amount of $0.04375 per Preferred Share to yield 5.25% per annum on the original issue price; and
ii. on or about December 1, 2019, to pay the holders of the Preferred Shares the original issue price of those shares.

Class A Shares:
i. to provide holders of the Class A Shares with regular monthly cash dividends currently targeted to be $0.10 per Class A; and
ii. on or about December 1, 2019, to pay the holders of Class A Shares at least the original issue price of those shares.

The sales period of this overnight offering will end at 9:00 a.m. (EST) on May 14, 2015.

The NAVPU of the Dividend 15 Corp. Whole Units is 20.06 as of May 12 … and these whole units are being sold for 21.90. Nice work if you can get it!

Update, 2015-5-15: This was extremely successful:

Dividend 15 Split Corp. (the “Company”) is pleased to announce it has completed the overnight marketing of up to 4,300,000 Preferred Shares and up to 4,300,000 Class A Shares of the Company. Total proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $94.2 million.

Issue Comments

MFC.PR.A To Be Redeemed

Manulife Financial Corporation has announced:

its intention to redeem all of its outstanding 14,000,000 Non-cumulative Class A Shares, Series 1 (“Series 1 Preferred Shares”) for cash on June 19, 2015. The Series 1 Preferred Shares (TSX: MFC.PR.A) are redeemable at Manulife’s option on June 19, 2015, at a redemption price per Series 1 Preferred Share equal to C$25.00 for an aggregate total of C$350 million. Formal notice will be delivered to holders of Series 1 Preferred Shares in accordance with the terms outlined in the share provisions for the Series 1 Preferred Shares.

Separately from the redemption price, the final quarterly dividend of C$0.25625 per Series 1 Preferred Share will be paid in the usual manner on June 19, 2015 to shareholders of record on May 20, 2015. After the Series 1 Preferred Shares are redeemed, holders of Series 1 Preferred Shares will cease to be entitled to distributions of dividends and will not be entitled to exercise any rights as holders other than to receive the redemption price.

This is one of the last Operating Retractibles still around – most were redeemed when accounting changes turned them into debt and this was reinforced by being disallowed as Tier 1 Capital by OSFI, although extant issues were grandfathered.

Many thanks to Assiduous Readers WT and GA for separately bringing this to my attention.

Issue Comments

DF.PR.A 2014 Annual Report

Dividend 15 Split Corp. II has released its Annual Report to November 30, 2014.

DF / DF.PR.A Performance
Instrument One
Year
Three
Years
Five
Years
Whole Unit +14.10% +15.60% +11.91%
DF.PR.A +5.38% +5.38% +5.38%
DF +27.80% +34.53% 23.11%
S&P/TSX 60 Index +15.07% +10.76% +7.91%

Using the S&P TSX 60 index rather than “Dividend Aristocrats” seems a little odd to me – but we’ll let them choose their benchmark!

Figures of interest are:

MER: It is reported as 2.72% of the whole unit value (“excluding any one time secondary offering expenses. Management expense ratio is based on total expenses for the stated period and is expressed as an annualized percentage of average net asset value during the period”), but I don’t believe this number. Expenses before agent fees on the secondary offering were $2.038-million on average assets of $155-million (see below) so I’ll call the MER 1.31%, which is in good agreement with prior years’ figures.

Average Net Assets: We need this to calculate portfolio yield. Distributions to preferred shareholders amounted to $4,693,481 which, at $0.525/share, means an average 8.940-million shares outstanding on the distribution dates. These were valued at 16.61 at the beginning of the year and 17.33 at the end, so say average net assets were 151.7-million. Total assets at the end and beginning of the year were $198.6-million and $115.6-million, respectively, so that average is $157.1-million. That’s good agreement! Call the average figure $155-million.

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Dividends received of 4,875,060 divided by average net assets of 155-million is 3.14%

Income Coverage: Net Investment Income of 2.837-million (before issuance costs) divided by Preferred Share Distributions of 4.693-million is 60.4%.

Issue Comments

PVS Annual Report, 2014

Partners Value Split Corp. has released its Annual Report to December 31, 2014.

The company has the following issues outstanding: PVS.PR.A, PVS.PR.B, PVS.PR.C and PVS.PR.D.

Figures of interest are:

MER: I suggest it is best to include the amortization of share issue costs in MER – after all, this is a charge against the stated value of the company. Therefore, expenses were $382,000 (regular expenses) + $1,443,000 (amortization) = $1,825,000 for the on assets of $2.650-billion (see below) or 7bp p.a..

Average Net Assets: We need this to calculate portfolio yield and MER. There were negligible capital transactions, so we’ll just take the average of the beginning and end of period assets (including preferred shares) so: (3.108-billion + 2.191-billion)/2 = 2.650-billion

Underlying Portfolio Yield: Total Income of $40.1-million divided by average net assets of $2,650-million is 1.51% p.a..

Income Coverage: Net income of $39.760-million less amortization of $1.443-million is $38.317-million to cover senior preferred dividends of $26.097-million is 147%. However, I consider it prudent to include the $10-million stated entitlement of the Junior preferreds, even though none of this was actually paid in 2014 because the Juniors can be retracted at any time, which could prove embarrassing in times of extreme stress. So I’d say income coverage is 106%.

Better Communication, Please!

Fortis Releases FTS.PR.H Conversion / Reset Details

I complained earlier regarding the lack of communication regarding the extension and reset of FTS.PR.H.

An officer of Fortis has sent me a copy of the official notification to Computershare:

St. John’s, NL (April 28, 2015):

Effective April 28, 2015, Fortis Inc. (the “Corporation”) announced that it does not intend to exercise its right to redeem all or any part of the currently outstanding Cumulative Redeemable Five-Year Fixed Rate Reset First Preference Shares, Series H of the Corporation (the “Series H shares”) on June I, 2015.

There are currently 10,000,000 Series H shares outstanding.

Subject to certain conditions set out in the short form prospectus of the Corporation dated January 18, 2010 relating to the issuance of the Series H shares, the holders of the Series H shares have the right to convert all or part of their Series H shares, on a one-for-one basis, into Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series I of the Corporation (the “Series I shares”) on June l, 2015 (the “Conversion Date”).

On such date, holders who do not exercise their right to convert their Series H shares into Series I shares will continue to hold their Series H shares.

The foregoing conversion right is subject to the following:
i. If the Corporation determines that there would be less than 1,000,000 Series I shares outstanding after the Conversion Date, then holders of Series H shares will not be entitled to convert their shares into Series I; and
ii. Alternatively, if the Corporation determines that there would remain outstanding less than 1,000,000 Series H shares after the Conversion Date, then all remaining Series H shares will automatically be converted into Series I shares on a one-for-one basis on the Conversion Date.

In either case, the Corporation will give written notice to that effect to holders of Series H shares no later than May 25, 2015.

The dividend rate applicable for the Series H shares for the five-year period from and including June 1, 2015 to but excluding June 1, 2020, and the dividend rate applicable to the Series I shares for the three-month period from and including June I, 2015 and ending on and including August 31, 2015, will be determined on May 4, 2015 and notice of such dividend rates shall be provided to the holders of the Series H shares on that day.

Beneficial owners of Series H shares who wish to exercise their conversion right, should communicate with their broker or other nominee to obtain instructions for exercising such right during the conversion period, which runs from May 4, 2015 until 5:00 p.m. (Eastern) on May 19, 2015.

Inquiries should be directed to Mr. Jim Spinney, Treasurer, Fortis at 709.737.2902.

Signed:
[signature]
Karl W. Smith
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

All that was provided regarding the reset was:

St. John’s, NL (May 4, 2015):

Fortis Inc. (the “Corporation”) hereby provides notice to the holders of its Cumulative Redeemable Five Year Fixed Rate Reset First Preference Shares, Series H of the Corporation (the “Series H shares”) of the following dividend rates, in each case payable if, as and when declared by the Board of Directors of the Corporation:

1. $0.15625 per Series H share, being the fixed dividend rate payable quarterly on the first day of’March, June, September and December of each year during the five-year period from and including June 1, 2015 to but excluding June 1, 2020; and

ii. $0.13125 per share on the Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series I of the Corporation (the “Series I shares”), being the floating dividend rate applicable to the Series I shares for the 3-month period from and including June 1, 2015 and ending on and including August 31, 2015,

in each case determined in accordance with the corresponding rights, privileges, conditions and restrictions attached to the Series H shares and Series I shares, respectively, as a class, as set out in the short form prospectus of the Corporation dated January 18, 20 I 0 relating to the issuance of the Series H shares.

Inquiries should be directed to Mr. Jim Spinney, Treasurer, Fortis at 709.737.2902.

Signed:
[signature]
Karl W. Smith
Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

The officer explained:

Fortis has provided the conversion notification as well as the new yields and notification deadlines to the official shareholders of Series H – that being CDS (Computershare). CDS confirmed that they have notified the brokers who in turn should notify the beneficial bondholders.

Well, that’s the good old book-based system for you! There’s only one registered shareholder – and as noted earlier, the prospectus states:

The Corporation will, on the Fixed Rate Calculation Date, give written notice of the Annual Fixed Dividend Rate for the ensuing Subsequent Fixed Rate Period to the registered holders of the then outstanding Series H First Preference Shares.

So, sure, the method they’ve chosen appears to be legal enough to my non-securities-lawyer eyes … but why do they do it this way? They are diligent enough to have a web page dedicated to their preferred shares, which includes links to the prospectuses … and that’s very good! That puts them a cut above most issuers. But why not take that one extra step and communicate with holders – and, more importantly, prospective holders – regarding details of the reset? BCE includes links to notices of this kind on their preferred share page – how difficult could it be to send a copy of notices of this nature to ‘the website guy’ who is already in charge of putting up the press releases?

So anyway, yeah, FTS.PR.H will reset at a dividend rate of 2.50% paid on par value, “a stunning 41% reduction in dividend from the original 4.25%” as reported earlier. FTS.PR.I will float at 145bp over three-month bills, reset quarterly. Holders of FTS.PR.H must notify the company through their broker and Computershare by 5:00 p.m. (Eastern) on May 19, 2015; but note that your broker’s internal deadline will be earlier than this; and also note that May 18 is the Victoria Day holiday in most of Canada and most brokers will be closed. So if you intend to convert, make sure you check with your broker regarding their internal deadlines!

I will post with my recommendation regarding whether or not to convert next week.

Better Communication, Please!

FTS.PR.H to Reset At 2.50%; Company Management Uncommunicative

As I noted on May 4:

Fortis still hasn’t announced a reset rate for FTS.PR.H yet, despite the fact that it must have been calculated:

“Fixed Rate Calculation Date” means, for any Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the 30th day prior to the first day of such Subsequent Fixed Rate Period.

“Subsequent Fixed Rate Period” means, for the initial Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the period commencing on June 1, 2015 to, but excluding, June 1, 2020 and, for each succeeding Subsequent Fixed Rate Period, the period commencing on the first day of June immediately following the end of the immediately preceding Subsequent Fixed Rate Period to, but excluding, June 1 in the fifth year thereafter.

The Annual Fixed Dividend Rate applicable to a Subsequent Fixed Rate Period will be determined by the Corporation on the Fixed Rate Calculation Date. Such determination will, in the absence of manifest error, be final and binding upon the Corporation and upon all holders of the Series H First Preference Shares. The Corporation will, on the Fixed Rate Calculation Date, give written notice of the Annual Fixed Dividend Rate for the ensuing Subsequent Fixed Rate Period to the registered holders of the then outstanding Series H First Preference Shares.

I assume this figure will be released tomorrow morning:

Fortis Inc. (“Fortis” or the “Corporation”) (TSX:FTS) will release its first quarter 2015 results on Tuesday, May 5, 2015. A teleconference and webcast will be held the same day at 10:00 a.m. (Eastern). Barry Perry, President and Chief Executive Officer, Fortis, and Karl Smith, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Fortis, will discuss the Corporation’s first quarter 2015 results.

Analysts, members of the media and other interested parties in North America are invited to participate by calling 1.877.223.4471. International participants may participate by calling 647.788.4922. Please dial in 10 minutes prior to the start of the call. No pass code is required.

Well, nothing was announced with the 15Q1 results and the company has yet to respond to two separate eMails I’ve sent, from which I conclude that Fortis management is arrogant shit.

However, as Assiduous Reader FletcherLynn points out in a comment, they have announced third quarter dividends:

$0.15625 per share on the First Preference Shares, Series “H” of the Corporation, payable on 1 September 2015 to the Shareholders of Record at the close of business on 19 August 2015, provided, for greater certainty, that if no such Series “H” shares are outstanding on such date as a result of the exercise by Shareholders of their right to convert Series “H” shares into Cumulative Redeemable Floating Rate First Preference Shares, Series “I” of the Corporation effective 1 June 2015 (the “Conversion Right”), no such dividend shall be payable.

5.$0.13125 per share on the First Preference Shares, Series “I” of the Corporation, payable on 1 September 2015 to the Shareholders of Record at the close of business on 19 August 2015, provided, for greater certainty, that if no such Series “I” shares are issued on 1 June 2015 pursuant to the Conversion Right, no such dividend shall be payable.

So $0.15625 per quarter for FTS.PR.H is $0.625 p.a., is 2.50% of par value which, given that FTS.PR.H resets at +145, as announced in January, 2010, means that GOC-5 must have been 1.05% on the Fixed Rate Calculation Date, which was 30 days prior to June 1, or May 2, which was a Saturday, which means that May 1 must have been used, for which I used 1.04% as the closing value for GOC-5.

In addition, the $0.13125 dividend for FTS.PR.I is $0.525 p.a., is 2.10% p.a., implying a 3-Month bill yield of 0.65%, which is reasonably close to the 0.64% I used on May 1 for the closing bill yield.

It will be noted that 2.50% on FTS.PR.H represents a stunning 41% reduction in dividend from the original 4.25%.

Since Fortis management is completely shitty and their investor relations department under a vow of silence, there is no information publicly available regarding conversion notification deadlines, but a little bird has given me information that the CDS notification deadline (the deadline for your broker to notify the Canadian Depository for Securities (which holds all the shares) is 5pm on May 19. Note that this is the Tuesday following the Victoria Day long weekend; since the market will be closed May 18, you probably won’t have much luck calling your broker the day before. So, while every brokerage will set its own internal deadline, I suggest Friday, May 15 is probably the last day they will take your instruction; although sometimes you can have them act on a best-efforts basis on the last day provided you grovel in a sufficiently entertaining fashion.

I will post in the middle of next week with my final recommendation, but at this point I will tentatively suggest that FTS.PR.I will trade lower than FTS.PR.H and hence those who really want the former issue will (probably!) be better off executing a trade in the market (assuming reasonable transaction costs.

Issue Comments

Low Spread FixedResets: April, 2015

As noted in MAPF Portfolio Composition: April 2015, the fund now has a large allocation to FixedResets, mostly of relatively low spread.

Many of these were largely purchased with proceeds of sales of DeemedRetractibles from the same issuer; it is interesting to look at the price trend of some of the Straight/FixedReset pairs. We’ll start with GWO.PR.N / GWO.PR.I; the fund sold the latter to buy the former at a takeout of about $1.00 in mid-June, 2014; relative prices over the past year are plotted as:

GWOPRN_GWOPRI_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

Given that the April month-end take-out was $5.69, this is clearly a trade that has not worked out very well.

In July, 2014, I reported sales of SLF.PR.D to purchase SLF.PR.G at a take-out of about $0.15:

SLFPRG_SLFPRD_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

There were similar trades in August, 2014 (from SLF.PR.C) at a take-out of $0.35. The April month-end take-out (bid price SLF.PR.D less bid price SLF.PR.G) was $6.25, so that hasn’t worked very well either.

November saw the third insurer-based sector swap, as the fund sold MFC.PR.C to buy the FixedReset MFC.PR.F at a post-dividend-adjusted take-out of about $0.85 … given a February month-end take-out of about $5.29, that’s another regrettable trade, although another piece executed in December at a take-out of $1.57 has less badly.

MFCPRF_MFCPRC_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

This trend is not restricted to the insurance sector, which I expect will become subject to NVCC rules in the relatively near future and are thus subject to the same redemption assumptions I make for DeemedRetractibles. Other pairs of interest are BAM.PR.X / BAM.PR.N:

BAMPRX_BAMPRN_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

… and FTS.PR.H / FTS.PR.J:

FTSPRH_FTSPRJ_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

… and PWF.PR.P / PWF.PR.S:

PWFPRP_PWFPRS_bidDiff_150430
Click for Big

I will agree that the fund’s trades highlighted in this post may be decried as cases of monumental bad timing, but I should point out that in May, 2014, the fund was 63.9% Straight / 9.5% FixedReset while in April 2015 the fund was 10% Straight / 85% FixedReset, FloatingReset and FixedFloater (The latter figures include allocations from those usually grouped as ‘Scraps’). Given that the indices are roughly 30% Straight / 60% FixedReset & FloatingReset, it is apparent that the fund was extremely overweighted in Straights / underweighted in FixedResets in May 2014 but this situation has now reversed. HIMIPref™ analytics have been heavily favouring low-spread issues and the fund’s holdings are overwhelmingly of this type.

Summarizing the charts above in tabular form, we see:

FixedReset Straight Take-out
December 2013
Take-out
MAPF Trade
Take-out
December 2014
Take-out March 2015 Take-out
April 2015
GWO.PR.N
3.65%+130
GWO.PR.I
4.5%
($0.04) $1.00 $2.95 $5.74 $5.69
SLF.PR.G
4.35%+141
SLF.PR.D
4.45%
($1.29) $0.25 $2.16 $6.16 $6.25
MFC.PR.F
4.20%+141
MFC.PR.C
4.50%
($1.29) $0.86 $1.20 $5.46 $5.35
BAM.PR.X
4.60%+180
BAM.PR.N
4.75%
($2.06)   $0.17 $4.76 $4.18
FTS.PR.H
4.25%+145
FTS.PR.J
4.75%
$0.60   $5.68 $8.86 $8.07
PWF.PR.P
4.40%+160
PWF.PR.S
4.80%
($0.67)   $3.00 $6.43 $6.50
The ‘Take-Out’ is the bid price of the Straight less the bid price of the FixedReset; approximate execution prices are used for the “MAPF Trade” column. Bracketted figures in the ‘Take-Out’ columns indicate a ‘Pay-Up’

There was not much change from March month-end to April month-end, although the charts show some great excitement in mid-March, with spreads widening dramatically. The following chart shows the normalized total return of the HIMIPref™ FixedReset index through the month:

FR_TRIV_150501
Click for Big

So why is all this happening? One should take care in explaining market movements, but it is my belief that in the latter half of 2013 we were dealing with the ‘taper tantrum’ – the market’s fears that Fed tapering and subsequent tapering would lead to massive spikes in yields; this led to a great preference for FixedResets over Straights. Now, with the economic news getting less inflationary with every news story and Europe and Japan desperately trying to reflate their sluggish economies, the market seems to think that these rate increases are still a long way off … leading to a great preference for Straights over FixedResets.

In addition, the graphs show a sharp spike in early December, during which the low-spread FixedResets were very badly hurt; I believe this to be due to a combination of tax-loss selling and a panicky response to the 29% reduction in the TRP.PR.A dividend.

And in January it just got worse with Canada yields plummeting after the Bank of Canada rate cut with speculation rife about future cuts although this slowly died away.

And in late March / early April it got worse again, with one commenter attributing at least some of the blame to the John Heinzl piece in which I pointed out the expected reduction in dividend payouts! Insofar as I am willing to guess what motivates ‘the market’, I will guess that the rally in the latter half of April is due to a feeling that the previously scheduled European deflation has been cancelled, which in turn encouraged an increase in Treasury yields which fed through to the Canadian market.

There was some good discussion about the declining phase in the comments to the January 29 market action report. I take the view that we’ve seen this show before: during the Credit Crunch, Floaters got hit extremely badly (to the point at which their fifteen year total return was negative) because (as far as I can make out) their dividend rate was dropping (as it was linked to Prime) while the yields on other perpetual preferred instruments were skyrocketing (due to credit concerns). Thus, at least some investors insisted on getting long term corporate yields from rates based (indirectly and with a lag, in the case of FixedResets) on short-term government policy rates. And it’s happening again!

Here’s the April performance for FixedResets that had a YTW Scenario of ‘To Perptuity’ at mid-month.:

FR_1MoPerf_150430
Click for Big

The end-of-month rally has been rather disorderly; correlations between Issue Reset Spread and monthly performance for April are basically zero.

Issue Comments

TLM.PR.A To Be Acquired At $25.00 May 8

Talisman Energy Inc. has announced:

that the completion of the acquisition of Talisman by Repsol S.A. is scheduled to occur on May 8, 2015. Regulatory approvals required under the arrangement agreement with Repsol have been obtained. The completion of the transaction remains subject to the satisfaction of customary closing deliverables.

The deal was announced in December and approved by shareholders in February.

TLM.PR.A is a FixedReset, 4.20%+277, that commenced trading 2011-12-13 after being announced 2011-12-5.

Update, 2015-5-9: Done:

Talisman Energy Inc. (TSX:TLM) (NYSE:TLM) announces that the acquisition of Talisman by Repsol S.A. by way of an arrangement under the Canada Business Corporations Act has been completed.

Under the arrangement, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Repsol has acquired all of the outstanding common shares of Talisman at a price of US $8.00 per share and all of the outstanding preferred shares of Talisman at a price of CDN $25.1093 (representing CDN $25.00 plus accrued and unpaid dividends) per share.

With the completion of the arrangement, the common shares will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, and the preferred shares will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange.