11-Sigma? As reported on July 17, it has been claimed that US Financials recently experienced an eleven-standard-deviation price move; not just a black swan, but a black-hole swan!
Perhaps not surprisingly, US Financial 15 Split Corp has made a slight adjustment to their standard valuation page, namely a Fund Update dated July 18:
A myriad of issues have affected the financial markets and have had a dramatic impact on the Company’s portfolio. Overall financial markets continue to be adversely impacted by the confluence of record high commodity prices and the continuing credit related problems originating from the US sub prime lending market. These conditions have caused economic growth to slow considerably in both Canada and the United States while at the same time high commodity prices are beginning to lead to a marked increase in inflationary pressures. In particular, the dramatic increase in oil prices has become a large obstacle for economic recovery. The US Financial Services sector is down approx. 34% year to date and in the last month closed at its lowest level since 1997 (over 11 years).
The combined effect of the market declines and the monthly distributions paid since inception has resulted in a decline in the net asset value of the Company to $9.25 as at July 15, 2008. The recent two day rally in the market has improved the net asset value of the Company by approximately 25% as at July 17, 2008.
One of their core holdings is Merrill Lynch, which got whacked today because of their writedowns, but let’s assume that the portfolio as a whole performed equally to the US S&P 500 Financials index, which is up another 3.05%
So, we’ll estimate the current net asset value of FTU units as 9.25 * 1.28 = $11.84.
Now, this asset coverage of slightly under 1.2:1 isn’t going to reverse the recent downgrade to Pfd-3. But just for fun, suppose we don’t need no stinking credit ratings. The prefs, FTU.PR.A, closed at 7.55-75, 15×10 today, after trading 800 – count ’em, 800 – shares in a range of 7.51-52.
So, say we can put on a huge position at $8.00. Our investment has asset coverage of just under 1.5:1 – not particularly good, but it’s not too long ago that issues were routinely given Pfd-2 credit ratings with this level of coverage – and it pays $0.525 annually until maturity 2012-12-1. That’s a yield of 6.56% on 4.5-year paper with asset coverage of 1.5-ish to 1. Which ain’t bad. And there’s the possibility of a bonus 25% being paid at the end of these 4.5-years if the units can avoid losing more than ~15% of their value over this time.
Which is kind of cool.
On the other hand, there’s some competition … the very ominously named “Mulvihill World Financial Split Corp” had asset coverage of just under 1.6:1 as of July 10, with no jiggery-pokery about market-value / par-value. It was downgraded recently to Pfd-2(low). It closed today at 8.80-85, 20×5, after trading 10,100 shares in a range of 8.77-87. At the closing bid, it yields 10.24%, way more than the Split Share Index … but remember, there is no bonus here – the yield calculation assumes full repayment of the $10 principal at maturity on 2011-6-30. Over 10% as a dividend on three-year paper is normally considered a good deal … but careful investors might wish to check the quarterly list of holdings to see if there have been any little accidents.
Update, 2010-08-05: See also Why Banks Failed the Stress Test.